Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DlC Edition! Day 217: Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)

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Tethu

Chance/Want: abstained

I really don't know a lot about him/her? besides that 1 E3 announcement. It's sad to see. He looks well designed, It's just it didn't meet any substantial milestones.

Nomination Django x5
 

TheFritzle

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Tethu Chance:
5%
A character from a game that failed. I don't see him getting added unless a new game releases soon and Sakurai was aware of this when making the project plan.

Tethu Want:
20%
Didn't play Ever Oasis, but he looks cool I guess.

Arle Nadja Prediction:
16.30%

Nominations:
Sylux x5
 

FamicomDisk

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While a little sad you didn't enjoy the game, at least you played it. It's far better to have someone play a game and form their own opinion instead of that person just skipping out on the game entirely. I just wish more people would give it a chance. Then they could make a sequel and hopefully iron out those things that took away from your enjoyment.
I agree! It's not even that I didn't enjoy it at all - it has a lot of excellent ideas. The oasis was fun to build, the combat system was great, and the actual puzzles in the dungeons were usually clever! I just think it didn't execute all of the ideas excellently - if they made a sequel or enhanced version of the original where they fixed some of the issues, it would be great! My biggest complaint was how each dungeon puzzle had only one solution, so you constantly have to change who's with you. Maybe they could improve that by allowing for multiple abilities and solutions to work for each puzzle, or even just allow you to swap your party's weapons and skills? It's certainly not a bad game by any stretch, it just needs some improvements! I'd like to go back and finish it sometime.

Also, it has an excellent soundtrack. I would love for some Ever Oasis songs to be in Smash!
 
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Tethu

Chance: 5%

In a similar position to Henry Fleming, as others have pointed out, thus he's getting the same score. Tethu's game is recent enough, but Ever Oasis was simply far from a success and will likely never be heard from again. It'll probably get a trophy and maybe some music and not much else.

Want: 30%

Also similar to Fleming in that while I'm not totally against the inclusion, I don't have a strong attachment to the series, am not extremely interested in him, and would rather have some other franchises get a character first. That said I'm considering getting the game at some point, so this could change later.

Arle Nadja prediction: 14.38%

Nominations: Bomberman x5
 
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Tethu

5.51% Chance
27.75% Want

Similar to Henry Flemming, sounds about right. Sorry for both of the little guys

Quetzal77 Quetzal77 gets the noms for today.


Today we got Arle Nadja, rate her in chance and want. Also tomorrow we have something special. You all were complaining about rating vets. So now Lucas will not be the only Lucas we rate. Please predict Lucas (The Veteran) and Lucas (From The Wizard).

Im the ****poster now.
 

BluePikmin11

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Arle is a strange case. On one hand, she definitely has moveset potential with the puzzle mechanics in Puyo Puyo games, SEGA likely being open to the idea with Nintendo and their relationship, and her series is one of the bigger SEGA franchises in Japan. But I cannot see Sakurai really going for Arle unless her Japan ballot popularity is extremely high and/or if there is a special developer connection that wants the character in (Both of which I doubt).

In the case her ballot popularity is not high, I feel her gameplay potential does not leave much initial complexity/variety. Puzzle mechanics alone are different, but are not as immediately attracting enough Bayonetta’s arsenal of weapons (Witch Time, hair attacks, gun, combo move variety) for Sakurai to really consider the idea. I feel that it would take a lot of factors for Arle Nadja to get in the roster. With what I know currently about her ballot popularity and the series’/SEGA’s connection to Sakurai, I am not so sure about Arle being a real contender for Smash Switch.

The supporters will have to fill me in more about the character. In my time of researching Puyo Puyo and Sakurai, I have not found anything that could point towards her inclusion.

x5 Tom Nook
 
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ProfPeanut

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Arle Nadja


"Hang on, who?"
Hold those abstain votes, user, and let me tell you about Arle's shot at all this.

Arle Nadja is the main character of an old franchise called Madou Monogatari, way back in 1989. It was kinda-typical dungeon crawler of its time that nevertheless had some decent quirks of its own, and did relatively well. Then its creators, Compile, had the idea using the game's setting and characters for their newest game, a take on a competitive kind of falling-blocks game. This would become Arle's new home: Puyo Puyo, which released in 1991 in arcades and on most consoles.

Puyo Puyo would turn out to be a relatively big deal in an age when falling-block puzzles had thought that endless modes would be their only ceiling. Puzzle games didn't have inclinations towards any sort of competitive multiplayer modes until Puyo Puyo showed that clearing blocks was a lot more fun when you were trying to mess up someone else with the same goals as you. This inspired a glut of copycats (and that's as much as any franchise can claim when it wants to claim "impact"), including NIntendo's own Panel de Pon.

So Arle's pretty old, compared to most candidates, and she's made her mark on the industry too. But here's something most historical franchises don't have: she's still well alive to this day! Although Puyo Puyo's since transferred from its bankrupted owner to its technical collaborator Sega, it makes enough bank to be their most profitable non-Sonic franchise! It's got its own popular mobile game, constant entries every five-year anniversary, and even a crossover with Tetris that you might've seen on the Switch store, or on Steam.

If ownership wasn't an object, Arle would be one of the best, if not the best, character you could pick for a puzzle game representative. And that's not just because of history, and not just because Arle did some work as an RPG character before - it's because Puyo Puyo is both a pioneer and example of competitive depth in a video game, the very depth that keeps it alive to this day. (What? You thought it was just because of the anime girls?) Being good at Puyo Puyo requires strategy, reaction, foresight, taking advantage of opportunity, and plenty of on-hands learning - things that translate really well into a fighting game! Arle isn't just a fighter for her own sake, but a conduit of her game's playstyle itself.

So why now? Because Smash 4 has since shown us that it's more than fine for a company to have more than one third-party representative, and then it showed us that it doesn't have to be that company's most iconic property to get in. Not to mention, Western recognition of Puyo Puyo is finally on the upswing, meaning that we finally have discussions like these. And even if she doesn't get it now, her consistent presence in her home country means that Puyo Puyo is likely going to stick around on the discussion table for as long as Smash says it's possible.


"Okay, well, if this 'Arle' is so great, how come this is the first time I've ever heard of her being on the discussion table?"
(It's true. I've looked at past RTC threads, and not one of them gave a day to Arle Nadja.)

For starters, there's the whole third-party thing. Arle's had all these pluses since before the first Smash game, but any timeline where she got in before Sonic did was inconceivable. And even after Brawl, she wasn't going to be a candidate until we knew more about the laxness of the possible third-party candidacies.

The biggest gate, though, is that while plenty of Japanese franchises have made the osmosis into Western perception over the past two decades, Puyo Puyo has managed to not be one of them. In the period of time that its original games could have been ported over into the West, Sega and Nintendo decided to instead dress up the ports with their own franchises, leaving the West none the wiser. Sega tried another localization during the GBA era, which had about as much impact as any other GBA game not from an established franchise, and then promptly gave up until the Switch era. Puyo Puyo never actually entered the West as itself before Sega came and restyled it, leaving Arle Nadja in the same boat as pre-Melee Marth for the longest time.

There's also the fact that Sega is unlikely to push this character themselves. They'll make some crossovers between it and its own franchises, or with a similar puzzle giant, but...well, you know Sonic's racing crossover games? They've got almost everyone from every one of Sega's weird, iconic, and obscure franchises - and Puyo's not one of them. Bank or no bank, Puyo Puyo is ultimately an adopted franchise, one that made its own historicity without Sega's input on the matter. The artstyle may be Sega's, but the gameplay itself still revolves around Compile's original work, as does Arle. They've tried to push her out of the limelight twice, only to bring her back anyway because people in Japan simply remembered her too well.

But even with her enduring popularity, Arle is simply not in the big leagues of icons - or else you probably wouldn't be reading this for info. She's not what Ryu is to fighting games, or what Cloud is to RPGs - that'd go to Tetris. And maybe that's because of her lack of Western recognition or presence, or because she started out as an RPG character only to be imported to a puzzle game later. But despite her franchise's present-day success, she's still asking upwards to Nintendo and Sakurai to consider her as a character, similar to many others below her.

"So, why are you supporting her?"

If you ask me...Puyo Puyo is a rare example of a game enduring thanks to its gameplay, like Tetris before it. The game's gone through ownership change, artsyle change, and all manner of additions that would've killed other games for being too off-beat. But Puyo Puyo is still alive after almost three decades, and it's still kicking in Japan, and that might be the fascinating thing about it from an observer's perspective. How many games can say that their original core gameplay is what keeps them around?

It's no secret that if Arle actually got into Smash, it'd be a clear shot to mimic what happened to Fire Emblem - suddenly, everyone would know your name, and might want to know what kind of game you come from. I'd be interested if that got to happen to a character who's been unfairly region-locked for most of her life, and what that might do to Puyo Puyo as well.

And it isn't as if Arle's just a wave-riding freeloader. She may be a magical girl, but she's got both the guts and firepower to maker her a lot better than others of her character - no stranger to fighting truly horrible things, but still a fountain of retorts in a world that takes itself too seriously. She backhands Satan on a regular basis, how's that not a plus?

And strictly speaking, 34% is still an unlikely shot.


Chance: 34%
Want: 82%


Prediction:
Lucas: 90%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5
 
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Arle Nadja
Chance- 25%
Puyo Puyo may be very iconic in Jaoan, but seems to have an identity crisis in the rest of the world. Sega has great relations with Nintendo, but we already have a puzzle game charaacter with Dr. Mario, and if we need one that isn't a clone then why not Tetris or Nintendo's own Panel De Pon?

Want- 0%
This game technically has a place in my heart as Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine, but i dont see the need for it to be in Smash Bros.

:4lucas: - 65.34%
Lucas- (I love the power glove. It's so bad.)%

Funky Kong X 4
Thwomp X 1
 
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Opossum

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Chance: 0.5%
After looking into the series, I really doubt it. The character is a Literally Who to most people outside of Japan, from what I'm seeing. That's not really something I see Sakurai looking for with third parties.

Want: 0%
This is a "Literally Who?" for me. I only know she's from Puyo Puyo or something.

Predicting a 68.2 for Lucas, and a 0.43 for Lucas.
Nominating English Marth x5
 
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Quetzal77

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Arle Nadja
Chance: 10%
Ok, I did not know who this was going by name alone. I don't think I'm alone on this. I don't think she's significant enough to be considered by Sakurai. She would feel especially underwhelming among the other third parties, who are gaming icons in their own right, maybe except for Bayonetta who got in via fan vote. Her game is definitely iconic enough, but I don't think she is.

Want: 0%
With third parties, I'm even more strict about who I consider should be added than with first parties. I don't think we need her in the game.

Lucas (Mother): 65.3%
Lucas (Wizard): 95% (idk who this even is)

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5, Neku x3, Mipha, Starfy
 

Xeno VII

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 4%

Probably one of the likelier Sega characters if we ever get a third, but I think most fans asking for one would rather have an additional Sonic character than anyone else. That being said, she seemed to have somewhat of a following in Japan when the Smash 4 ballot was still a thing, so there's that at least. Though the Puyo Puyo series' presence in the west has always been limited, the most recent localized entry being that crossover with Tetris not very long ago.

Want: 60%

There are other Sega characters I'd prefer, but I'd be okay with Arle. A puzzle-based fighter could be interesting.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5
 

FamicomDisk

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Arle

Chance: 65%

I think Arle's actually got a very good shot! Check out her support thread here for some info on her if you're unfamiliar! There are a few factors that make me think this. First up, Sega has clearly been working closely with Nintendo for Smash since Brawl. Smash 4 had not only Sonic, but Bayonetta added, as well as stages and many music tracks for each. Sega owns PuyoPuyo, so if Nintendo were to ask, I think Arle would be an easy inclusion.

But would they ask? I think they just might! If you take a look at the SourceGaming Smash Ballot poll for Japan, you'll notice that Arle is in 16th place overall, and the 4th highest third party character, placing above Cloud and Bayonetta! This is a fan poll, so the results likely don't reflect the actual ballot results perfectly, but she probably did well on the real one too if she placed so well here. This makes sense - while she may be obscure in most areas, PuyoPuyo is popular enough in Japan that it recently became an eSport! The Japanese ballot page said that results would be referenced for future games - with Arle doing so well, and Sega working closely with Nintendo, it's fair to say that she's got a good shot!

Want: 85%
I once heard someone say that Arle would be a fun inclusion in Smash, and I didn't know how it would work at the time and didn't think she would be a good choice. However, after joining the site and reading through her support thread, I found that there was a lot more to her than I thought! There are a lot of fun ideas for what she could do, and she could be a very unique character! She's since become a character I'd really like to see, despite the fact that I haven't played much of her games!

-----

MOTHER 3's Lucas chance prediction: 85%
I think he's a guarantee, and most people seem to think so too. I think he'll score well!

The Wizard's Lucas chance prediction: 100%
He's already got an amiibo!

Nomination:
-DeMille x5
 
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Icedragonadam

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 30%

Want: 100%

Now this is interesting. I was one of the few gamers who knew of Puyo Puyo's existence before Puyo Puyo Tetris. I loved the games even if I had trouble with chain(I have trouble stacking them). Now Puyo Puyo has gotten more recognition.

The Puyo Puyo games are popular in Japan so I could see Sega another another rep in Arle. But I don't know for sure. That said though since the games are fun I would love to see Arle in the game.

Predictions:

Lucas(Mother): 86.45%
Lucas(The Wizard): 0.23%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 

Ghirahilda

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Arlete Nadja:
Chance: 0.1%
She don't have the "icônic" appeal from third parties

Want: 0%

Nomination: Octopath Traveller Character x5
 

Wyoming

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Black Shadow x237
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x235

Agumon x225
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x225
Qbby x206
Bomberman x203
Lycanroc x196


199-150

Urban Champion x195

Kamek x186
Dark Samus x184
Simon Belmont x182
Sans x178
Funky Kong x178
Azura (Fire Emblem) x175

Spyro x174
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x172
Travis Touchdown x169

Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x160
Masked Link x158
Mipha x157
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x151
KOS-MOS x150


149-100

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Sylux x140
Gengar x135

Lip (Panel de Pon) x131
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x125
Concept: Skyrim representation x125
Parabo & Satebo x124

Neku Sakuraba x121
Linkle x120
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x118
Cranky Kong x115
Wonder Red x113
Fawful x111
Thwomp x110

Octoling x110
Excitebiker x107
Mimikyu x107
Ryu Hayabusa x105

Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100


99-75

Tetra x96
Papyrus x93
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x90

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Katrielle Layton x85
Slippy Toad x80
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Sakura Shinguji x78
Susie x76

Fjorm x75

74-50

Klonoa x70
Labo related character x68
Sable Prince x68
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x68

Veronica x67
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x65
Django (Boktai) x65
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x65
Lloyd Irving x65
Tom Nook x63

Zeraora (Pokémon) x58
Lara Croft x57
Barbara x56
Tingle x56

Steve (Minecraft) x55

Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51

49-30:

Starfy x47
Ray (Custom Robo) x43
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x43
Arcade Bunny x43

Gooey x42

Concept: Wars character x41
Dragonite x37
Balloon Fighter x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Primarina x30
Tails x30
Snorlax x29
Toon Zelda x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Viridi x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Returning game mode: Smash Run x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Stage: New Donk City x25
Tora & Poppi x25

24 and less:

Slime (Dragon Quest) x23
Concept: Female Announcer x20
Ayumi Tachibana x20

Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Mach Rider x8
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x6

Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x5
Scorpion x5
Shadow x5
DeMille x5
Concept: Transformation characters x5
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Leon S. Kennedy x2

Changes:

A new top 7, of course.
Black Shadow overtakes Mike Jones for the lead.
Bomberman breaks 200 noms

Masked Link, Pyra/Mythra, and KOS-MOS break 150 noms
Mimikyu breaks 100 noms
Susie breaks 75 noms
Tora & Poppi become the first character(s) to break 25 noms since the purge
New additions: -clears throat- Pikmin newcomer, Scorpion, Shadow, DeMille, Transformation characters (all x5), rerating Rex & Pyra (x10), and Leon Kennedy (x2)
 
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Arle Nadja

Chance: 5% - I guess she's from PuyoPuyo? She's a generic-looking anime girl from a game series that's basically goo tetris. The goo balls are the only really "iconic" part of Puyo Puyo, and even then, calling them "iconic" is a big stretch. She's a third party as well, and amongst the existing cast of them, even including Bayonetta, she's a nobody by comparison. Definitely not an important, popular, or Nintendo-centric franchise to deserve representation in Smash. She doesn't even have moveset potential to fall back on, considering all she does is stand off to the side while goo falls. Genuinely don't think she'll happen anytime soon.

Want: 0% - Considering I only found out the character existed yesterday, I'd rather not she get in over the boatload of more deserving and more influential third parties.

Predictions:

Lucas - 70.07% - After Sakurai specifically made a point of him, Roy, and Mewtwo returning because they were popular, I really don't think he'd leave them behind in the dust again.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5
 
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Ura

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3rd Party Lip

Chance: 3%

Very unlikely that she gets in the game. She's not particularly popular like most 3rd parties and has a world of competition facing her.

Want: Abstain

Don't really know much about Puyo Puyo.

Predictions

Lucas (:4lucas:the legit one)
Chance: 70%
Want: 82%

Lucas? (:4cloud:did say limits were meant to be broken but even he would cringe at the prospect of this)
Chance: 0.3%
Want: 0.5%

Nominations


Masked Link X 3
Bomberman X 2
 

Slyshock

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 10%
Puyo Puyo is one of Sega's biggest franchises, though like most of them it pales in comparison to Sonic. Still, last I checked it was more successful than Shin Megami Tensei, which is nothing to sneeze at. The series was critical in the creation and development of competitive puzzle games, so the legacy's there. Japan's all about Puyo Puyo, Arle Nadja in particular is one of the more popular 3rd party picks over there. Puzzle games haven't had the best time getting in Smash, with only a Mario clone as a nominal representative, so Arle would be a very unique contender in both origin and moveset.

Despite all that, the games are relatively unknown in the West. Some of the games have had successful reskins which brought some attention to the gameplay, so some players may recognize moveset elements like Carbuncle and the Puyo, but that doesn't do much to promote Arle herself. The ports of Puyo Puyo Tetris gave the series a happy little renaissance in the West, but it came a bit too late for Sakurai to take notice. Considering that he's been hesitant to add even 1st party characters which didn't have much Western presence, I have a hard time seeing him springing for a 3rd party with the same issue.

3rd party status and lack of international recognition aside, she's not the only possible Puyo Puyo newcomer either. Amitie could carry the flag just as well, and shares much of her magic prowess. Carbuncle, being the mascot of the series even in Western reskins, would likely be the most recognizable choice. Arle is still the most likely out them all regardless, but it doesn't help.

Want: 66%
I'd very much like to see puzzle games get quality representation in Smash, where puzzle gameplay is meaningfully represented through a fighter's style. Puyo Puyo could certainly spawn an interesting moveset with enough effort invested. At the same time, I don't have much of a personal connection to the series compared to the very similar Panel de Pon, which has the added benefit of being a 1st party. Still, Panel de Pon may have never existed without Puyo Puyo's influence, so for that I'm grateful.

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x5
 

MasterWarlord

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Chance 0.2%: What star power does this bring as a third party? Yes, it's a fairly long and historical franchise, but it doesn't have much in the way of characters. Sega didn't even put her in their crossover racing game. You'd sooner see a second Sonic character.

Want 0%: Please put in Lip instead.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5
 
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DaUsername

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Arle
Chance: 5%
Her main problem is that she would be the third Sega character. (But then again, is Bayonetta even a Sega character anymore?)
Want: 25%
At least she's not a Sonic character.

1989 Lucas prediction: 0%
1998 2006 Lucas prediction: 73%
Noms: Transformation characters x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Champion
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Tale Nadia (aka how my autocorrect decided to spell her name)

Chance: 3%
If you were to take a look at her support thread she’d feel like the likeliest character ever, with her being so popular in Japan. Now while I do know of Puyo Puyo, she’s drawing a complete blank with me. I believe that if a character can be that popular in Japan and still be a total unknown worldwide, her chances are pretty terrible, especially when Nintendo would have to negotiate with Sega to get her.

Want: 0%
Don’t have anything against her, but she’d be taking the spot of Lip who is one of my top wanted newcomers.

Predictions for the Lucases (Lucae?)
Mother Lucas: 89% ‘cause somebody’s gonna be stupid
The Real Lucas: 100% because c’mon

Nominations:
Mach RiderX2
DeMilleX3
 

-crump-

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Wow, the first RTC character I have legit never heard of. Had to do some diving in Google to figure out who this character was.

Arle Nadja
Chance: 5%
She and her series are big in Japan, and the character(from what I can tell) enjoys a sizeable fanbase.

Unfortunately for Arle, Super Smash Bros is not a Japan-only title. Here in the West, she and her series are really
obscure, unless you happen to be a big fan of puzzle games. Arle is also a third party, and considering the goal of 3rd parties is to bring in massive hype from across the globe.., adding her would be counter-productive.

Want: 2%
I would rather have a Tetris block, honestly. :p


Noms:
Tingle x5
 

slambros

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 12, 2012
Messages
762
Arle Nadja

Chance: 35%
She and her franchise are both very popular in Japan. If SEGA is allowed to choose a rep, they might shock a lot of people and choose her. We'll see.

Want: 75%
She would probably have a decent moveset and the inclusion would get more people interested in the excellent Puyo Puyo Tetris, which actually seems to be growing as an eSport.

Nominations:
Bomberman x2
Excitebiker x3

:171:
 
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Wyoming

Connery, Sean
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Arle Nadja

Chance - 15%
The game being an eSport lately as well as decent data to back up her popularity during the ballot certainly helps her chances.

The two negatives are iconic status and moveset potential. The first argument is a bit loose now due to Bayonetta but I still think the bigger names will be the ones they look at the moment. If not, then she stands out for being a character for a company that has worked with Nintendo and the smash team before.

Move set potential seems lacking. A puzzle game fighter will always be harder to make. Looks like goo would play a part but would that and the puzzle aspects intrigue Sakurai? Possibly, but even he has limits to what a character can do and how the function. There is a theme for her style, but I feel it is not really realizable.

Want; Abstain

Lucas: 68.4%

Noms: Black Shadow x5
 

Erureido

Smash Master
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NNID
Erureido
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Double abstain.

------

Predictions

Lucas (Mother 3): 78.91%

This will be an interesting day tomorrow, no doubt about that.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

Yep, this is my next nomination. I've got some things to say about him/her since he/she is an interesting spot regarding his/her chances, and I'm sure it'll lead to some interesting discussions. I am also well aware of the many 0% want scores he/she will get as well (though I don't know if he/she will be as controversial with those want scores as Rex/Pyra was when we rated them).
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
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Messages
3,366
Hmmm...

Arle Nadja

Chance: 16%

She is quite in a interesting sittuation... she is techically iconic in Japan as the character associated with Puyo Puyo-like games that became quite known in many different ways (some of them, of course, not using Arle herself)... She kind of has the problem fearing about her potential in West early, so, she never became a icon in these lands... she is just currently trying to carry on now with the newer generations... She still needs time to become an known icon in Western... but hey, with something you must begin.

Want: 51%

Well, I don't know things about her games outside of the Puyo Puyo gameplay style... but at least her design is very pretty and nice, so yeah, points to the Sorceress.

_____________________________________

Predictions featuring:

Lucas: 84.5%

Nominations:

Tom Nook x3
KOS-MOS x2
 

ProfPeanut

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
376
Finished my long post on Arle, and I'll address another thing I'm seeing here:

"So does she have moveset potential or what?"

As mentioned before, Arle originates from an RPG game as the playable character. She has various elemental attacks under her move pool as well as other unique abilities, such as a buff that doubles her next attack's power, various status effects, and the ability to stun enemies with a shower of flowers.

She also represents Puyo Puyo, a game best played against other people. Puyo Puyo has its own unique rhythm of gameplay based on building long and devastating chains while preventing your opponent from doing the same, whether by interrupting their efforts with garbage or priming up a long counterattack of your own. Building, interrupting, and countering chains can be as freeform as a fighting game, and getting a long chain off without any counter is as lethal as a solid meteor smash.

An ideal Arle set could combine both her original abilities as an RPG character with the rhythm and strategy of a Puyo Puyo game, forming a solid basis for a moveset to be built upon.
 
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Lord-Zero

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2015
Messages
1,740
Arle Nadja

Chance: 30%

- She’s an iconic character in Japan and she’s still pretty popular.

Want: 100%

- Sure. I’d love to see her as a Smash fighter. She’d certainly be quite unique if Sakurai really wants to bring in the puzzle elements of Puyo Puyo as well as her RPG elements and turn those elements into a move set.

Predictions

Lucas (Mother 3) : 59.5%
The Other Lucas: 0.4%

Nominations


Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x2
 

VGamer01

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 19, 2014
Messages
163
Arle Nadja-
Chance 25%
Want 4%
Puzzle character thats reletivly famous... Few problems with her tho. 1 the other mascot girl(Amitie) is more popular/recognizable and maybe a competition to her. 2 if theres is a puzzle character to be added to smash, i think sakurai will add in nintendos own puzzle icon 1st(being lip).
One pro she is a popular sega character(literally not a 0% because shes a sega character NOT from the sonic series).

Prediction:
Lucas: 68%

Noms-
2x Sable Prince
2x Demille
1x Tora and Poppi
 
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Arle Nadja

Chance - 1%

She has some decent popularity in Japan, I guess? That's about it.

Generally, I think popularity in Japan tends to mean more in Sakurai's eyes than western popularity, however, I'm pretty sure worldwide appeal is the go to for third parties. Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, Pac Man, Ryu, and Cloud are all extremely well known in both Japan and the west. Bayonetta is an exception, but even still, she had some decent popularity in Japan as well, and was the #1 European pick, as well as in the Top 5 picks within the United States, so even still, she has significantly more worldwide appeal than Arle does.

She also faces some big competition from SEGA's biggest franchise: Sonic. If SEGA is going to get another character in the game, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they went with someone like Tails, Dr. Eggman, or Shadow instead: all characters significantly more iconic, have worldwide appeal, have stronger ties with Nintendo, and are much more popular character requests.

If SEGA does decide to branch outside of Sonic though with its second (or third, if you're counting Bayonetta) character, I guess it could be her, simply because it's apparently the next best selling franchise they have, but I really doubt it, simply because I can't really see SEGA getting a new character in the first place, and even if that were to occur, I can't see it not being another Sonic character.

Want - 0%

I don't want third party characters in Smash that aren't iconic.
If we're to get a little girl puzzle game character, I'd rather it be Nintendo's own Lip.

Nominations:
Sable Prince x2
Demille x2
Tora and Poppi x1
 

Kitty-chan

Happy Pyromaniac Neko
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Arle Nadja

Chance: 20%
Very popular in Japan and may have done well in the ballot nya? However her series has been purely Japanese until Puyo Puyo Tetris and is owned by Sega nya, which than falls down to whether or nyot Sega is willing to give Nintendo nyanother one of their characters to use in smash nya.

Want: 85%
I like her design, she'd be interesting, and I wanya play the games she's from nya.

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
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Location
New York
Another Literally Who

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

I stand by my assertion that Nintendo All-Stars should be known to most people, and that goes doubly for third-parties. If you’re not iconic, you have no business being in Smash, no matter how popular you are in one locale.

Prediction for:4lucas:: 50.0
Nom: Skyrim stuff x5
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
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Messages
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Gusty garden galaxy
Oops I missed 2 days. Good thing idc about either of them

Arle Nadja:
idk her
Chance: abstain
Want: 55%
Basing this off design. Kinda looks like a Sonic character to me, which is a minus, but she reminds me of Lip, which is a plus.

Lucas prediction: 66%

x4 Veronica
x1 Azura
 

Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
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Arl Nad Ja?
Arley Nadya?
Ar Len Ad Jay?
R L N Ad J?

Chance: 5%
Puyo Puyo is a very popular game series in Japan, plus it is owned by Sega having close ties to Nintendo and being one of only two third parties that has multiples characters in Smash already...and perhaps she could have an interesting moveset involving the Puyos in some way I guess...

Other than that she's got nothing...While Puyo Puyo does have western releases its still relatively niche in the west and some first party characters have been denied their invitation to Smash due to Western obscurity in the past...

Me feels like third party characters are only likely to get in if they have a greater wordwide appeal...Arle Nadje doesn't really have that...As far as Sega content goes we would more than likely get a second Sonic character than another IP of their's...

Want: 10%
I'd be interested to see how the Puyo's would be implemented...perhaps as projectiles or slime traps or whatever...but other than that I'm not that interested...

----

:4lucas:-55.55%

----

Dark Samus x5
 
Joined
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Messages
506
Arle Nadja
Chance - 5%
I don't think she is that likely, but she could be one of those surprises.
Want - 20%
Not really feeling strongly for or against her.

Nominations - 5x Pikmin Newcomer

Responses to the people who took my negatives towards veterans in question as being "worth" rating below. I really don't understand how rating every obscure and unlikely character under the sun is fine, but people seem to freak about how boring or pointless it is to do a veteran.

This argument makes no sense. How would a character confirmed to have been brought back by fan demand among Smash fan base (you know, the people who would be interested in DLC for a Smash game) be the worst selling due to popularity? Great popularity was the reason he came back.
Lucas has fans and I'm sure he did sell a decent amount of DLC, but do you really think they'd advertise him as "Well, he was easy to make and partially made already. So here's your next DLC!!!" Simply put though, he probably moved less sales than both Mewtwo and Roy, the other two veterans. He probably sold less than Bayonetta and Cloud as well. The only one i see him beating is Corrin.

So obviously that one point isn't the doomsday event for Lucas, but I'm merely showcasing Lucas isn't the clean cut safe kid that the other poster was trying to indicate. Lucas does have a chance to be cut and has arguments both for and against him. if some people truly feel we need to suffer a handful of cuts, doesn't it seem possible the semi-clone of Ness from a dead series that was cut once before could be on the chopping block?

Lucas's fate is not determined in the slightest and therefore can lead to interesting conversation if people are more open minded to it.


He's basically a second mascot to the franchise. There's no way in hell that he'll be cut.

You're completely forgetting that he's one of the most popular and recognizable Pokemon in the franchise (arguably more than Mewtwo).

We're getting off topic though
Lucario never seemed to hit it large in Smash though, same with Charizard with PT itself likely being the larger blame initially. Followed by the general unpopular status of many of the heavyweights. And they don't have the luxury to be sitting as the sole rep of their series like ROB or G&W do. And again, I'm pointing out their flaws that don't make them clean cut safe bets. I could list positive traits of them as well, but the purpose of countering the people saying voting on these veterans is a waste of time is to bring up the flaws of the characters in question. I don't understand why it seems "acceptable" to view Mewtwo and Greninja as obvious potential cuts cause fans echoing the rationality that they could be for a few reasons, but then the fans plug their ears and deny the possibility of others being the one picked instead.

I'd prefer no Pokemon cuts myself and unlike the "Pattern" and "OVER REP" crowd, I actually see it as likely that Pokemon will keep it's current roster.

Overall though, an open mind to the positives and negatives of both newcomers and veterans is important. And no series has a more diverse and flexible cast than Pokemon. Only Pikachu is truly 100% safe.
 
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Koopaul

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 29, 2013
Messages
1,440
I stand by my assertion that Nintendo All-Stars should be known to most people
I guess Mother stuff had no buisiness being Smash 64 right?

"But Mother has a huge fanbase!"

And that's partially thanks to Smash putting Ness in the game making people aware of 'Litterally Who' and discovering the series.

That being said...

Arle Nadja
Chance: 5%
It seems to me that Sakurai picks 3rd party characters based on how well known they are worldwide rather than their popularity in Japan. Otherwise we would have gotten a Dragon Quest hero over Cloud. This is not the case with Nintendo characters, he seems to have different rules for them. And if Arle was a Nintendo character her chances would be much higher. But 3rd party? Seems unlikely but not impossible.

Want: 3%
Unlike Nintendo characters, who I want all kinds (obscure or popular) from all sorts of crazy series. I am very fussy about 3rd party characters and want to keep them to a minimum.

Predictions for Lucas
Chance: 70%
Want: 90%

Nominations:
Barbara the bat ×3
Slime ×2
 
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Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
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Location
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Arle Nadja
Chance - 5%
I don't think she is that likely, but she could be one of those surprises.
Want - 25%
Not really feeling strongly for or against her.

Nominations - 5x Pikmin Newcomer

Responses to the people who took my negatives towards veterans in question as being "worth" rating below. I really don't understand how rating every obscure and unlikely character under the sun is fine, but people seem to freak about how boring or pointless it is to do a veteran.



Lucas has fans and I'm sure he did sell a decent amount of DLC, but do you really think they'd advertise him as "Well, he was easy to make and partially made already. So here's your next DLC!!!" Simply put though, he probably moved less sales than both Mewtwo and Roy, the other two veterans. He probably sold less than Bayonetta and Cloud as well. The only one i see him beating is Corrin.

So obviously that one point isn't the doomsday event for Lucas, but I'm merely showcasing Lucas isn't the clean cut safe kid that the other poster was trying to indicate. Lucas does have a chance to be cut and has arguments both for and against him. if some people truly feel we need to suffer a handful of cuts, doesn't it seem possible the semi-clone of Ness from a dead series that was cut once before could be on the chopping block?

Lucas's fate is not determined in the slightest and therefore can lead to interesting conversation if people are more open minded to it.




Lucario never seemed to hit it large in Smash though, same with Charizard with PT itself likely being the larger blame initially. Followed by the general unpopular status of many of the heavyweights. And they don't have the luxury to be sitting as the sole rep of their series like ROB or G&W do. And again, I'm pointing out their flaws that don't make them clean cut safe bets. I could list positive traits of them as well, but the purpose of countering the people saying voting on these veterans is a waste of time is to bring up the flaws of the characters in question. I don't understand why it seems "acceptable" to view Mewtwo and Greninja as obvious potential cuts cause fans echoing the rationality that they could be for a few reasons, but then the fans plug their ears and deny the possibility of others being the one picked instead.

I'd prefer no Pokemon cuts myself and unlike the "Pattern" and "OVER REP" crowd, I actually see it as likely that Pokemon will keep it's current roster.

Overall though, an open mind to the positives and negatives of both newcomers and veterans is important. And no series has a more diverse and flexible cast than Pokemon. Only Pikachu is truly 100% safe.
Each character has it's fans hence why they are nominated to begin with...

Veterans, on the other hand, people feel are unnecessary because they have precedence in Smash and a much much higher likelihood of returning (everyone has their opinions but when we see 95%+ across the board it doesn't make for a very exciting discussion for that day)....personally I have no problem with discussing veterans unless we're doing one that's pretty damn obvious they'll return :4shulk:...

Lucas isn't as obvious to return since he was already cut during Smash 4's base game so rating him does at least make sense since he's pretty much a low priority clone...so there really isn't much of a problem discussing him, although any excuse to discuss multiple characters in one day the better I find...
 
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