Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheCJBrine]

Black Knight:

I don't know much about FE outside of Smash, as I haven't played the games, so I abstain.

Skull Kid:

Chance: 70% - He's very popular and is one of the most iconic Zelda characters, having a major role as the villain in Majora's Mask, a beloved Zelda title. You can say it's just the mask that's iconic, but as I see it, that would just include Skull Kid by extension. From the Moon AT, possible hinting, and a couple of leakers, I think he's very likely, though not 100% certain. I would like to think he would have done a good job in the ballot, though, as he's recognizable by far more than the main Smash community.

Want: 100% - My favorite Zelda character, and not just for his main MM appearance. His lonely character, just wanting a friend, and being a mask and music-loving, forest-dwelling, prankster imp makes me like him, and I like his design. He even has decent moveset potential; puppets, blowpipe, Tatl & Tael, trumpets or the ocarina, and of course, the Mask along with its dark magic and attacks. His Final Smash could even be the Moon; I mean, we'll already have two Moons on Great Bay, anyway, and they could make his FS a cinematic (or just make the mask fly off and turn into Majora's Wrath).

 

[Misery Brick]

Black Knight
Chance: 44%
The Black Knight is one of the few characters that actually has the honor to have gotten a costume made for him during Smash 4, which reflects his potential mentions on the ballot. He's definitely ranked high in terms of Fire Emblem Heroes' own CYL poll, having a strong fan presence behind him.
However, Sakurai during Smash 4's DLC has admitted that he felt that there was too many FE characters on the roster, and almost decided against Corrin if it wasn't for her unique moveset. Now that we received Chrom as an Echo Fighter, I don't see his chances being all that high especially given Sakurai's qualms.
I do feel he does have a shot of making it into the roster, and would fit as FE's first villain if you don't count Robin's Fell Vessel shenanigans, but I do feel that he'd probably make it as a boss instead. However, given the Ballot has referred to fan requests, I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow makes it.
Just don't get your hopes up on the villain of Tellius being able to clash swords with Ike this day.

Want: 60%
As with all characters, I feel that they should get in as a unique fighter and not be relegated to an Echo Fighter. However, I wouldn't be against the BK getting in as one, it'd just slightly sting given how much of FE's roster is made of clones.
All I'd hope for is that he has enough properties or normals/specials to help him feel completely different from being a variation of Ike.
Outside of that though, I'd welcome him as he'd be the first boss/villain for Fire Emblem.

Skull Kid
Chance: 52%
(This is difficult)
Skull Kid holds one of the most iconic imagery in the Zelda franchise in his possession, Majora's Mask.
He's been hotly requested ever since the days of Brawl and even possibly back in Melee, and has had no intention of fan desire dying down.
Sakurai even noted this during Smash 4, when he posted the Miiverse page he specifically noted him as an Assist Trophy and not as a fighter.
Given the fan demand and iconography of the mask he wears, he definitely does seem like one of the most likely candidates for Smash Ultimate.
However, it should be noted that Skull Kid isn't the character that's iconic, it's more or less Majora. Also, outside of some dialog and his laughter, the most iconic imagery from Majora's Mask isn't necessarily the mask itself, it's also the Moon. That's already included as an Assist Trophy within this game, and takes out one of the closely associated elements with the character.
Not to mention that Skull Kid himself never directly fights Young Link in his home game, or rather at all. The final battle in MM is with Majora's Wrath, not Skull Kid. Therefore the character doesn't have any unique attacks to pull from the character itself. Sakurai's biggest quotas for characters is that they need to do something that's innately them and unique to them. So that could be a major point against this lost child.
Skull Kid has been a prominent figure in Zelda lore and has contributed greatly to the iconography of the series, leaving a long lasting impact over the many other anatagonists in the series.
The question is it enough for him to become apart of the roster for Ultimate?

Want: 75%
I'd love for the Zelda series to finally receive an interesting and unique fighter through Skull Kid. He's apart of one of my favorite Zelda games in the series, and has a nuanced personality and character that hasn't really been seen in the series since.

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over, rating Banjo and Geno .

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Geno
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

Geno's a lock. Sakurai has implied that characters chosen are heavily influenced by the ballot. Sakurai has also mentioned that in the past that Geno is a character that gets a lot of support. So he knows Geno is popular. Sakurai has been able to get the rights to Geno's likeness in the past, so the ONLY thing stopping Geno from getting in is Sakurai himself, and not Square. And luckily for Geno, Sakurai has said that he's been interested in Geno in Smash since Brawl. Cloud was always going to get in first. But now that Cloud is in from base, it's Geno's turn.

 

[DaUsername]

Black Knight
Chance: 20%
If Sakurai gets REALLY crazy with echo fighters, I could see him being added. But I'm not sure if they would add an eighth FE character, even if he is just a glorified alt costume.
Want: N/A
Abstaining from SK.

BK prediction: 23%
Geno prediction: 42%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5
Edit: Dang it, am I late again?

 

[NintenRob]

Banjo
Chance 0.5%
I'm pretty convinced there are no more stages, meaning no Banjo
Want 96%
What a dream come true though

Geno again
Chance 3%
No SMRPG stage, Square, limited space the fact that he's an irrelevant nobody and more popular and prominent Mario characters are not playable and there are already a lot of Mario characters. Put your attention elsewhere
Want: N0%


Nominate No more stages x5

 

[Cetus]

Banjo Kapoopie
Chance-50%
With how friendly Microsoft's been lately, I suppose it's a better chance than ever.

Want-45%
Never played his games but he looks ok.

Geno
Chance-95%
There's really no reason for him not to be in this game unless Square decided to something ****ty.

Want-60%
I've never played his game nor do I particularly care for him, but his moveset would be interesting and the happiness of the fans would be so great.

 

[Klimax]

Geno
Chance: 100%
Geno is getting in. For people saying "Square has to give the rights to Sakurai", don't forget that they actually did with the MII Costume (costume or playable character, at the end of the day, you still need the rights). He's by far the most wanted Square Enix character. Square Enix know it and they already made a step in the good direction with the costume (and they know that the costume reignited hope for Geno's inclusion as a playable fighter). He's probably top 5 of the most wanted newcomers overall. Sakurai loves him. Nintendo finally acknowledged Super Mario RPG this year. One Nintendo's artist drew Geno around when the Ultimate's roster was determined saying that they talked about him. We can also talk about the figures that Sakurai bought to help him on a project. This time, the roster is all about popularity and Geno is just popular as hell. He's a legend when it comes to Smash speculation.

Want: 100%
After getting Ridley and the character that I wanted since Melee (K Rool), Geno is the really last character that I would be sad to not see in the game.


Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 70%
It's hard to say, they're iconic and really popular. Phil Spencer seems okay with them in Smash Bros. I'm not sure about them being in the base game but i'm pretty confident about DLC.

Want: 100%
They are legendary and their games are awesome, that would be awesome to see them.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Banjo & Kazooie:
Chance: 15%
The biggest obstacle if you ask me is Microsoft. They seem very amicable with Nintendo these days, and many Microsoft higher-ups have pushed for the Bird and Bear in the past, and they have a huge amount of popularity thanks to the people who grew up playing Banjo & Kazooie on the N64.

Want: 60%
Banjo & Kazooie definitely left an impact on my childhood since I played it on the N64. However, they're not my super most wanted despite this. If it weren't for Microsoft owning Rare outright then it'd be a much higher score. I'd love to be proven wrong because this would cause me to flip out as much as Cloud's reveal did. Definitely want them more than freakin' Steve... [insert grumbling rant about MineCraft here]

Geno:
Chance: 70%
Pretty decent if you ask me. He's got his Mii Costume, has been considered by Sakurai in the past and has a huge amount of popularity amongst the fanbase.

Want: 70%
I'm not the first to admit that I don't have a strong connection to Geno or Super Mario RPG, so I mainly know of him through Smash Bros. At this point, I'm wanting him to be included for his fanbase to be happy to finally see their favourite character join the fray after so long like Ridley and K. Rool.

 

[Slender]

Geno

Chance - 78%
Given the already revealed newcomers, it'd be a lack of common sense to think there isn't a greater chance for Geno to show up in Ultimate than now. Square's been on-board since Day 1, Geno's licensing issues have been figured out for the most part in Smash 4, and heavy-hitting speculation characters have been included. I think the stars are aligning this time around and we have a very good shot at seeing Geno appear.

Want - ∞%
Geno has been the only character I've been actively requesting for a long time now. Seeing him reappear in a game after all this time would be something spectacular to me. I want to see Geno in ultimate to introduce him to the general public who haven't played SMRPG, or even open up the possibility to have a SMRPG remaster or a sequel. I'm all in for Geno.

 

[aarchak]

Banjo

Chance: 35%
He's very popular, and I don't think either Microsoft or Nintendo would be opposed to the idea, but it doesn't seen incredibly likely to me since we already have so many third parties, and the licensing costs must be high for all those characters. Plus I don't know how well he scored on the ballot, so I can't really say anything on that.
Want: 80%
I like him and I think he would be a great addition to the roster. He's quite the solid character, is a classic, is iconic, has so much going for him. The only thing I am a little reserved about is him being a third-party, there are already so many and I want to see Smash having more of its own characters in.

Geno

Chance: 80%
Geno is the only character I think is very likely to come for this game. He has everything in his favor, from ballot support to Square being contacted already for Cloud. I think he'll be confirmed.
Want: 90%
While my only reservation is that he's a bit lacking in being an interesting character, he's still solid, well-loved, and has good moveset potential. I'm liking this one. He should definitely be in.

Nominations

None today

 

[Sari]

Banjo

Chance: 20%
Has a lot of support but I'm not sure if they'd actually go through with putting him in.

Want: 65%
Never got to play the Banjo games but I feel that he would be right at home in Smash.

-----

Geno

Chance: 85%
One of the most popular Smash requests of all time, had a mii costume in SSB4, and was considered by Sakurai for Brawl. With Ridley and K. Rool being added I feel that they're going all out with the popular requests and will most likely include Geno, but that's just a hunch.

Want: 5%
Disclaimer: I've played and beaten Super Mario RPG all the way through. That being said I never got the appeal of Geno. Personality-wise he was the least interesting of Mario's 4 allies in the game, and in general there are tons of better Mario reps out there. If he gets in then I'll be happy for his fans since they've wanted him so badly over the years, but otherwise I couldn't care less about him.

-----

Chance predictions:

Lloyd: 34.12%
Heihatchi: 65.44%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

GoodGrief741 When can we expect the current top nominees to be set into the schedule (so that their dates are set and you can't vote for them anymore)?

 

[SilentSentinel]

Banjo
Chance: 15%

I'd really like to see this happen but I still feel it is unlikely for the base roster given the project plans supposed timeline. Maybe if the rumored Minecraft representation happens then he could be in but I feel as if DLC is a much more likely possibility.

Want: 100%

B&K getting in would be absolutely incredible. I'm already extremely happy with the roster but it would be an amazing reunion if they were to return to a Nintendo game.

Geno
Chance: 60%

Given how few spots seem to be open I'm not inclined to give a score much higher than this for just about anyone but I think the chances are pretty good. I noticed someone earlier give Geno a low chance because of the possibility that we're done on stages but I actually think Geno doesn't really need a stage so if anything that boosts his chances versus other potential 3rd parties or even new Nintendo franchises as Geno falls under the Mario universe. I've seen all the hemming and hawing about Square potentially being lame about it but even with that factored in I think he will make it.

Want: 65%

Geno is not exactly an icon of gaming history like most of the other third parties, but his game does have importance, he is a cool character, and his long standing popularity should carry some weight. Even if he isn't at the top of my list I'd pleased to see him in and happy for his longtime fans.

 

[tyrus+]

Geno
Chance: 95%
Want: 100%
I'm obviously going to be biased here, but I believe Geno right now is the most likely newcomer. Sakurai has acknowledged his popularity and has actually wanted him in as well, but wasn't possible in previous titles due to Square. That has obviously changed now (mii costume) and I believe his chances have skyrocketed.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 75%
Want: 60%
Another obvious pick. Iconic, popular and even Phil Spencer has wanted him in Smash. Wouldn't be surprised if he got in. Not particularly fond of him, but I'd want him in to make his fanbase happy.

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining from both characters today. Not familiar with Banjo & Kazooie enough to give them a proper rating, and I'm in the mood of rating Geno either.

------

Predictions

Lloyd (Tales of Symphonia): 28.14%

No comment.

Heihachi (Tekken): 22.37%

He was considered for Smash 4 and also got a Mii costume in that game. I feel like one of the main arguments against him will have something to do with Ryu and how he already fills the role of the fighting game rep in Smash.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

 

[Gerrothorax]

Geno
Chance: 100%
Sakurai himself has stated he wants Geno in the game, something no other character can boast. He's getting in. Not to mention he already had that Mii costume in smash 4. If Square was fine with the mii costume than they'll be fine with a playable Geno.
Want: 80%
I've never played Super Mario RPG, but Geno has a neat character design that would be unlike anything else in Smash. Plus it'd be a nice reward to his fans who have stuck with him for so long.
Abstaining from Banjo.
Noms: Deconfirmed Character DLC x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Black Knight/Skull Kid pre-Geno/Banjo & Kazooie

Ninten x363
Jin Kazama x360
Terry Bogard x347
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x305
Django (Boktai) x300
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x295
Gardevoir x285

Over 200

Rowlet x275
Concept: Hanafuda Character x257
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x240
Nathan Drake x240
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x217

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Amaterasu x188
No More Stages x188
Papyrus x180
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x180
Louie x165
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Rick/Coo/Kine x159
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x146
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x145
Item: Beast Ball x137
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x135
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Barbara the Bat x127
2B x126
Klonoa x117
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Zeraora (Pokemon) x106
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Edelgard x105
Dovahkiin x105
Reimu Hakurei x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Guzma (Pokémon) x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Veronica x73
Chorus Kids x72
Yu Narakumi x71
Frank West x70
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Black Knight as a boss character x60
Slime x58
Silvally x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Adeleine x34
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25

Under 25

Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Leo (Fire Emblem) x15
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Big Boss x10
Concept: DLC character pass x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Cross series Echoes x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x2
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1

Reinhardt’s trophy passes Django, it is now in 4th place. Gardevoir gains a lead over Rowlet, so Rowlet falls off the top seven.

Edelgard, Dovakhiin and Reimu Hakurei all pass 100 noms.

We have a new concept: Cross series Echoes, with 5 nominations.

aarchak the Moon is disconfirmed. We don’t rate disconfirmed characters.

Banjo

Chance: 20%
Has a lot of support but I'm not sure if they'd actually go through with putting him in.

Want: 65%
Never got to play the Banjo games but I feel that he would be right at home in Smash.

-----

Geno

Chance: 85%
One of the most popular Smash requests of all time, had a mii costume in SSB4, and was considered by Sakurai for Brawl. With Ridley and K. Rool being added I feel that they're going all out with the popular requests and will most likely include Geno, but that's just a hunch.

Want: 5%
Disclaimer: I've played and beaten Super Mario RPG all the way through. That being said I never got the appeal of Geno. Personality-wise he was the least interesting of Mario's 4 allies in the game, and in general there are tons of better Mario reps out there. If he gets in then I'll be happy for his fans since they've wanted him so badly over the years, but otherwise I couldn't care less about him.

-----

Chance predictions:

Lloyd: 34.12%
Heihatchi: 65.44%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

GoodGrief741 When can we expect the current top nominees to be set into the schedule (so that their dates are set and you can't vote for them anymore)?

Oh man I wish I knew. For what it’s worth, we’re halfway through the fixed days, so now’s when I should start worrying about not knowing. TCT~Phantom how many days before did Connery lock noms down?

 

[Ridrool64]

Spoiler: Yesterday's, I just wanted to save them, missed by accident

Black Knight want is 20%. Don't mind his inclusion but I'm not rooting for him by any means.

Chance is 10%, barely any ballot presence + the massively different proportions between him and Ike as an echo = unlikely.

Skull Kid want is 65%. I like the character, I like his most important game, I want Zelda to go beyond Triforce Trio and get a newcomer, but he's probably the top character I want that I won't go out of my way to say I want. There's also Tingle and Impa, who I'd slightly prefer because they represent more of the series and they just sort of... are the other major two characters who are feasible (Epona, sad to say, probably isn't.) What I really want from this guy alone is at least the boss themes from Majora's Mask, that'd be cool.

Skull Kid chance is everywhere, I don't even know what to make of his likelihood. I'll just say that while I'm certain we're seeing this kid, as what is the question. My estimates are 50% playable, 40% Boss, 9% Assist Trophy and 1% demoted to Trophy. Within playable, 100% Unique, 0% Echo because that literally serves no purpose and there is nobody for him to echo. To his credit, he doesn't care about 103 or not (he actually benefits from it, going up to a 90% playable and 10% Other), and while the Moon I've changed my opinion on (previously I was certain that it'd be the Final Smash, but remembering Riki is both means the Moon can be both) it is actually the Ramblin' Evil Mushroom that puts him on my radar: this thing is the last thing that was needed to make his Assist effectively redundant, meaning the guy has a decent shot for a promotion [though even then, Little Mac and Dark Samus haven't left anybody behind to fill their voids, still, why bother doing that with Skull Kid if he weren't going to be a fighter?]. I lowball my scores because I want to be prepared for anything, but I do understand people going over 60% likelihood for this character, and I don't often do that for uniques.

Banjo and Kazooie chance: 10% before DLC, 80% overall. They're basically strictly DLC characters. If they happen at launch, cool, but I don't see it happening.

BK want: 90%. After Arle, they're who I want the most. It's a reunion 17 years in the making.

Geno chance: 45%. It really comes down to if Square allows the use of Super Mario RPG music, and while things have never been better for Geno I think Paper Mario is still likelier. Even if we do get more stages, we're likely not getting a Super Mario RPG stage, and while that doesn't matter, that makes Super Mario RPG music less likely. And we're not getting Geno without Super Mario RPG music: otherwise he'd have nothing to play for his reveal or character trailer.

Geno want: 80%. I like his game and I want closure for a fanbase that's been around this long. The same could be said of Skull Kid, but I just have more of an appreciation for Geno due to a return to relevance and just liking his game more.

For once, I'm going to make nominations: Gooey x 1, No More Stages x 3, Disconfirmed Character DLC x 1.

 

[Cabbagehead]

Geno
Chance: 100%
Want: 80%

Long ago, this one-off side character from a third-party collaboration of yesteryear would be so completely random that I would've reacted as if you just asked for the Noid to be in Smash. However, as I've gotten to understand the background of the game a bit better, I have equally come to understand what Geno represents, and why he resonates with older Nintendo fans/retro fans.

To see such an out-of-the-blue choice grow into a viable contender for Ultimate's roster due to the dedication of a sizable fanbase that Nintendo/Square probably forgot existed in recent years is incredibly impressive. And those characters - the underdogs who have been ignored for years - are the characters making it into the roster.

Not only that, but for some considerably more tangible proof, there's the whole "Sakurai was considering Geno for Brawl" thing, or the fact that Square-Enix getting on the Smash Train during Smash 4's DLC brought with it a Geno Mii Costume (not conclusive of playability, of course, but for a character like Geno, it's notable), and the fact that Square's back on board for Ultimate, and this time, they're there from the get-go. Things are looking up for Geno. Honestly, I will be completely blindsided if Geno isn't in the base roster, I'm that confident in his odds.

While I have no nostalgic ties to the character, Geno is at the tippy-top of one of my best friends' wishlist. I want the Geno fans to be happy after all their struggles, but I also want to see my friend's reaction, haha. Also, Geno is the ideal third-party choice for me, because he has an incredibly strong tie to Nintendo.

Banjo
Chance: 40%
Want: 70%

Like Geno, Banjo is one of those third-parties who would make perfect sense in a Nintendo-themed crossover like Smash. Unlike Geno, however, Banjo's history with Smash speculation is pretty shallow, amounting to a sizable fan demand throughout the years and a tweet from Phil Spencer. Everything else is conjecture. That being said, I can't give him a flat 50/50, either, because there is a single glaring worry revolving around the character: would Nintendo be willing to negotiate with a direct rival (Microsoft) just for some Smash fanservice, or are they too good for that? If Vergeben is to be believed, then they would most certainly be willing to negotiate with Microsoft about Smash content. But until we see Minecraft/Banjo-Kazooie in Smash for ourselves, this one glaring question could certainly be Banjo's undoing.

All that being said, Banjo-Kazooie is pretty nostalgic. Not too nostalgic, as I didn't play it much outside of my early childhood and switched over to the GameCube pretty early on in my life (and never looked back, haha), but if Banjo's added, of course I'd be thrilled! The BK gameplay style is the perfect inspiration for an interesting moveset, in my opinion, and it would be a pretty cool talking point for most of my friends, as we all grew up with the Nintendo 64, to some extent.

 

[SoupCanMafia]

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 45% Base, 100% DLC
Want: 75%
For the fabled Bear and Bird, there really is no reason aside from Microsoft why B-K shouldn't be in Smash Bros Ultimate. Of course, I would say that, ultimately, he is essentially a guaranteed lock-in in the DLC Stage. But it would really be justice if he can get in as a Base Release character. As to why I want him? It's quite simple: He's a doofus bear with a smart alec bird and they have that Nintendo shine to them that makes them feel like they are a Nintendo Character.

Geno
Chance: Absolutely%
Want: 35%
As much as I talk about Geno with a tone of ignorance, I know that he'll be a lock-in for the base roster. Like, should I even continue on? To most effectively quote his chances: "It's like a trump card, but the card literally flips over the table and shoots the other player!" The 35% Want is less me not knowing who he is and more a personal bias against him because of how often he pops up, but I would have no problems when he's included.

Nominations: Shantae x5 (I'm not too sure how nominations work, but I'm gonna put some of my chips into the Half-Genie's inclusion)

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

Geno

Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

Sakurai has stated that he's referring to the ballot this time for fighter inclusions and mentioned how K. Rool received a ton of votes. In an interview that took place in 2016 (so after Ultimate's roster was already finalized), he mentioned that Geno has received tons of requests (not necessarily tied to the ballot but we can reasonably extrapolate this). He also mentioned that he's wanted him in the game since Brawl and thinks that he would be a perfect fit. He's also revisiting old ground in this game (Sukapon, Ditto, etc.) which seems to indicate that he's doing everything he hasn't had the chance to do yet. He also specifically added the Geno Mii costume to Smash 4 (with a splash screen, like a fighter announcement) because he wanted to give something to the fans (basically implying he wanted to tide them over).

Final Fantasy missing music does not preclude Geno from entering the fray. The issue with FF's music is with its composer, not with Square. The FF composer has a lot of power and receives a lot of money for its tracks. Square has also shown that they're willing to license the rights to Geno with the Mii costume already. The absence of a stage does not preclude him either as he's a Mario character. Nothing states that we can't get one anyways in a future announcement or even as DLC. And fighters have been added before in the past from new franchises without a stage. Even R.O.B. still doesn't have a stage.

 

[gebi]

Geno
Chance 80%
Want 101%

Banjo
Chance 70%
Want 90%

 

[Mr Gentleman]

Geno
Chance 99%
Want 100%

There are countless factors working in Geno's favor for being a character in ultimate. Sakurai himself wants him in so he has bias for including him. Sakurai both confirmed that they are using the ballot for picking characters. and that Geno is very popular at a time when he would have known the ballot results.
He has a unique and original design so he fit's Sakurai's rule of being a stand out character that would make people want to play the game. Square is working with nintendo again on smash with Cloud and even has a close relationship with Nintendo now. Sakurai even made a connection with Nomura the big guy square says to talk to when getting permissions. and Nomura didn't even think Cloud was relevant when Sakurai asked for him so Nomura is fine with adding someone who isn't key to squares agenda. and Nomura was even the easiest of all third party developers to work with according to sakurai.

There is no reason legitimate reason that Geno wouldn't be in smash right now.

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance 50%
Want 90%

we really don't have much information to work off of to know Banjo's chances. we know Microsoft is willing to work with nintendo and is having kind of a good relationship with them currently. but the real question is how willing is Nintendo to give free advertisement to what could potentially be a rival to Mario if Microsoft suddenly decided to revive the Banjo series.
He was likely very popular on the ballot. and Sakurai loves his far out their suprises that nobody thought was possible. so Banjo could make the perfect final character. but if he thought working to get the rights from rare back when they were a part of nintendo was hard back then. who knows what he thinks now.

 

[Speculator]

Banjo? His chance is 0%, along with all other Western third parties. It's taken them this long to reach a total of three Western-designed playable characters (Diddy, Dark Samus and K. Rool) and they're all characters that Nintendo actually owns. If they're going to go to the trouble of securing third party IPs, they will go for characters that their domestic audience is at least familiar with.

As for want, I'd say about 75%. They're beloved games from my childhood, but I believe the characters are fully put to bed at this point.

Geno is much more interesting. He's not exactly an enormous part even of his own game, but the ballot will have drawn attention his way. He managed a costume in SSB4 just like K. Rool, presumably as a result of the ballot, so I'd put his chances at a solid 80%. I don't think he's a lock by any means, but fan service is clearly a large factor in roster selection this time.

I'd say I want him at about 40%. He's cool, but most movesets I see from him look very "ordinary fighter". If they can put together something unique for him (Mario RPG style attack timing?) then I'd be more interested, but there are other characters I prioritize.

 

[Johnknight1]

Geno:
100% Probability
100% Want

Leaks hint we are getting a 2nd Square Enix character, and Geno has been teased by Sakurai before. It feels inevitable, because even if we get Sora before that, Geno just like... breaks the rules and just feels inevitable. IDK maybe I'm overly optimistic with Geno but it feels for certain after the Sakurai Smash 4 teases.

As for Geno, he's my 2nd most wanted 3rd party character with any real shot (after Heihachi Mishima). While I would rather have Crono over Geno in regards to original moveset Square characters, I would super love Geno. I loved his moveset and tools in Super Mario RPG. They would translate super well to Smash Bros and be very marketable.

Sakurai has dressed up Geno too much to pass on him this time. That and this is "Ultimate" and he seems like the perfect "WTF?" newcomer and another great twist of a character to add in Smash.

Banjo and Kazooie:
30% Probability
100% Want

Underrated his likelihood at the moment because I don't see Banjo on the base roster in most circumstances (I would put his base roster odds at 10%). I do however see him standing a great shot at being DLC.

A lot of it is determined by if Heihachi and Sora are off the board though. If both are in the base game, then I really don't see a world where we don't get Banjo as DLC. If one is, there's still a good chance we get him. If neither are, odds aren't looking too good.

Banjo would be sick to have. Banjo is really the one N64 character "missing" from Smash. It would be an incredibly easy fit, but the process of adding Banjo would be taxing. It definitely could happen. The N64 is just not the same without the 2 Banjo games on there. You can't tell the history of that console without Banjo Kazooie and Banjo Tooie.

Right now for me though judging DLC characters is tough. I need to see all the dominoes fall before I can have any opinion or take that seems based on reality. Guessing Banjo's odds feels like a shot in the dark.

 

[Deleted member]

Gonna abstain for both today.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

Heihachi prediction: 34.48%
Lloyd Irving prediction: 19.31%

 

[kingkalamari]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 90%
Want: 20%

I want to clarify I think BK will be the face of DLC in Smash, I'm doubtful theyll make it in the base roster, but making it in Smash DLC or base doesnt matter, as theyre still in Smash. I think it's impossible for Nintendo not to acknowledge the outpouring support of the character. My personal tastes though leave me not really wanting them, as Nuts & Bolts chastised their fans who only seek nostalgia, while also killing the franchise with weird redesigns and totally different gameplay. If they were to appear based on their Nuts and Bolts design, my want would be a solid 0. I'd be more into Yooka-Laylee.

Geno

Chance: 85%
Want: 100%

Doesnt seem like theres been a better chance for him to appear, Sakurai's blessings and desire to get the character in stacked with the Mii costume and quotes about K Rool matching up with Sakurai's comments on Geno appearing seem pretty favorable. Out of all the Square-Enix characters that couldve gotten Mii costumes, it's telling Geno is the one to get one. Furthermore ignoring Daisy, we've gotten a new Mario character either from the main series or a spin-off title in every Smash game so far, on standing with Pokemon. If Pokemon is to get another representative, it only makes sense for another Mario rep to show up too, which I think will be Geno. That being said I have some bias for the character as he's my main want since Brawl, and as the years have gone by, I havent felt this hopeful that the time is finally here he could arrive.

 

[SoupCanMafia]

Banjo? His chance is 0%, along with all other Western third parties. It's taken them this long to reach a total of three Western-designed playable characters (Diddy, Dark Samus and K. Rool) and they're all characters that Nintendo actually owns. If they're going to go to the trouble of securing third party IPs, they will go for characters that their domestic audience is at least familiar with.

I would have to disagree with that remark. Just because a certain IP could be across the ponds, doesn't mean they're unaccessible by the Japanese populace. And the one IP I would point towards is none other than Crash Bandicoot. While he was technically a Sony character, he was primarily owned by Universal Interactive, an American publisher, with the most recent owners being Activision, another American publisher and not Sony. Yet at the same time, Crash Bandicoot was hot in Japan, given ads made exclusively for the Japanese audience and even his own theme song. Was it because of Sony's exclusivity during the Naughty Dog Era that it helped him spread? Possibly, but there's no denying that his quirkiness and surprising brawn was a product from the Americas that has successfully integrated itself into the minds of Japanese children whom played the Crash games.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Geno

Chance: 75%
Well, what can I say that hasn’t been said before? The ballot wants him. Sakurai wants him too. Relevance doesn’t account for **** this time around. Square Enix is in since day 1, and they’ve no reason to refuse if asked.

The only way I can see him not making it in is if there’s only two unique newcomers left, as I feel those would be Isaac and Bandanna Dee.

Want: 100%
I love SMRPG. And there’s just a sort of mystique about him, his design, his backstory, his character that just catches me. And judging from his support, I’m far from the only one. As a Square rep, I might think Crono and Sora deserve it more, but it doesn’t matter because Geno isn’t a Square Rep, he’s a Mario rep.

BK

Chance: 12%
I think along with Rex and Spring Man they’re a lock for DLC, but I just don’t think Nintendo managed to nab them in time. I also think there’s limited slots left, and if we’re getting a new third party it’ll be Geno. Sakurai must have realized there are a lot of first party characters fans highly want, and while I don’t think he plans for DLC before the game is out or gone gold, I can envision him realizing that he could probably get people to buy Banjo-Kazooie more than he could get people to buy Isaac, and this prioritize those for whom it was now or never.

Want: 100%
They’re Nintendo characters. Anyone who says otherwise is lying or deluded. Let’s bring them back home.

Nominations: Phoenix WrightX5 (I hope the top seven is locked down soon)

Edit:

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 90%
Want: 20%

I want to clarify I think BK will be the face of DLC in Smash, I'm doubtful theyll make it in the base roster, but making it in Smash DLC or base doesnt matter, as theyre still in Smash. I think it's impossible for Nintendo not to acknowledge the outpouring support of the character. My personal tastes though leave me not really wanting them, as Nuts & Bolts chastised their fans who only seek nostalgia, while also killing the franchise with weird redesigns and totally different gameplay. If they were to appear based on their Nuts and Bolts design, my want would be a solid 0. I'd be more into Yooka-Laylee.

Geno

Chance: 85%
Want: 100%

Doesnt seem like theres been a better chance for him to appear, Sakurai's blessings and desire to get the character in stacked with the Mii costume and quotes about K Rool matching up with Sakurai's comments on Geno appearing seem pretty favorable. Out of all the Square-Enix characters that couldve gotten Mii costumes, it's telling Geno is the one to get one. Furthermore ignoring Daisy, we've gotten a new Mario character either from the main series or a spin-off title in every Smash game so far, on standing with Pokemon. If Pokemon is to get another representative, it only makes sense for another Mario rep to show up too, which I think will be Geno. That being said I have some bias for the character as he's my main want since Brawl, and as the years have gone by, I havent felt this hopeful that the time is finally here he could arrive.

For what it’s worth, I think if Microsoft wanted Banjo-Kazooie to use their Nuts & Bolts design Sakurai would put his foot down like he did with Pac-Man.

 

[StormC]

Banjo? His chance is 0%, along with all other Western third parties. It's taken them this long to reach a total of three Western-designed playable characters (Diddy, Dark Samus and K. Rool) and they're all characters that Nintendo actually owns. If they're going to go to the trouble of securing third party IPs, they will go for characters that their domestic audience is at least familiar with.

Banjo-Kazooie are not unknown to Japanese gamers, and in fact have been requested by fans over there, so I'm not sure where you're getting this from.

Anyway, I'll rate later.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Duck Hunt 2
Chance: 10%
Alright, alright, alright. Banjo's a great pick, and I think we'd all like to see our favorite bear and bird make a triumphant return to Nintendo hardware, but frankly, I just don't see it happening. For one, like NintenRob above, I'm convinced we've seen every stage this game has to offer (why else, realistically, would we have gotten a stage count?), and as such, I believe anyone from an unrepped series is effectively hosed as far as the base roster is concerned. (Although I don't think it has any bearing on Geno's chances, but that's for another paragraph.) Then there's the comments Phil Spencer made just earlier this year to consider, which seem to indicate that Banjo isn't in the base game, if anything. I think the bear and bird are near-locks for DLC if their current popularity persists, but for base roster, I just don't think it's Banjo's time.
Want: 70%
I love a good underdog story, and although I have no connection to Banjo or his games personally, seeing a dedicated fanbase effectively bring a character back from the dead for one last fighting chance would be an absolute joy to see. Speaking of which...

Blue Pinocchio w/ Guns
Chance: 80%
I rated Geno at 80% during his last re-rate ages ago (speaking of which, here's hoping today doesn't turn out like that, woof), and although I no longer factor DLC into my ratings, I still maintain that Geno's chances are not only good, but have only improved over time. Heck, even 80% is a bit on the low side if the ratings I've seen so far are any indication, but I'm being cautious here. My thoughts on Geno's chances are largely summed up by my last post on the matter, but to put it briefly...

• Sakurai has admitted to wanting him in since Brawl, and unlike other previously considered fighters like Takamaru, he never indicated that Geno was "rejected" for any particular reason, implying that if it weren't for licensing, Geno would probably be in the game already.
• He's arguably the longest-standing fan request bar Ridley and has remained a consistently popular request to the point of basically being emblematic of the Smash speculation scene (a point which is especially important considering Sakurai is specifically going off of fan requests this time).
• Square Enix is ostensibly cooperating with Sakurai, with them specifically licensing out Geno's likeness during Smash 4's DLC season.
• His main weakness, irrelevance, seems to be a non-issue this time considering K. Rool made it in, among others who haven't seen any action in years.

Yeah, way I see it, there's not much of a reason to think Geno won't be in this game bar pure bias and/or contrarianism (unless you still buy into the "Square Enix is stingy lol 2 songs" meme) considering just about everything is going in his favor this time. He's definitely the most likely Mario character left (then again, his competition basically includes what, Paper Mario at this point?), and I wouldn't exactly call it a stretch to call him the most likely Square Enix rep as well. And I'm so glad to be able to say that, even moreso to see the majority of people respecting Geno's chances for once.
Want: 100%
See my sig. I've wanted this lad since I first found out about him in the days of Brawl, and upon me playing SMRPG for the first time, he instantly became my most wanted for just being an awesome character that I, and countless others, would love to see in action again. But more than anything, seeing Geno get in would close the book on a wonderful success story of a dedicated fanbase speaking up and making their dream come true on the power of sheer fan pull alone, even if it means bringing someone as obscure and unseemly as Geno into Smash. I dunno about you, but I think that's something, and even if you hate Geno, I hope you can at least appreciate the inherent beauty of such a scenario.

Nominating Gooey x5

 

[StormC]

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 60%
Want: 95%

If Banjo was owned by Nintendo, he'd be at least over 70%, but it's unknown really what a Nintendo/Microsoft partnership would look like in the context of Smash. I don't know what Sakurai thinks of Banjo-Kazooie, but we didn't know what he thought of K. Rool until he added him. I am pretty confident in his chances, but not as confident as I was in K. Rool. As far as I can tell, the only website where Banjo-Kazooie wasn't dominant during the ballot was, ironically, SmashBoards. If he isn't in the base game, I think he will still be a likely candidate for DLC, but I can't see why he can't be base, either. I feel like Sakurai would enjoy the challenge of implementing Banjo in Smash and making video game history by uniting two competitors. Banjo-Kazooie is the only way he can really top K. Rool's announcement for the fanbase.

I wasn't as invested in Banjo at the time because I put all my eggs in the K. Rool basket, but now he's easily my most wanted. I played the everloving hell out of the N64 games and Banjo-Kazooie is in my top 5 of all time. The only potential newcomer left that would probably send me into hype overdrive.

Geno
Chance: 50%
Want: 30%

Sakurai wants him and fans want him. Can he be obtained from Square? Probably, but perhaps other characters, especially more popular ballot picks, would be prioritized first. Square seemingly blocked Geno from being in Brawl before, so it's hard to say if it will happen again. Again, if he was a Nintendo character, I'd easily bump this up by at least 10%. People here rating Geno 90-100%... well, I'm glad you're so confident. I think if we have more than 3 unique newcomers left he has a really good shot, though.

I wouldn't dislike Geno's inclusion, but I truly don't believe he's Nintendo all-star material. He's not even the most important character in the one game he appeared in, and said game is one of my all time favorites. I could accept him as a generic "Mario RPG rep," and he would be fun, but eh. Not someone I'd include personally, but I'd be happy for his longtime fans.

 

[Honest Slug]

Geno
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

Ever since E3 I had a feeling Geno was posdible and the evidence has gotten even more stagering since.

Vergeben talking of a 2nd Square rep.
Being a popular fan pick in a game full of characters like that.
The ballot being a major factor.
Sakurai saying he'd find Geno a perfect fit.
Getting a Mii costume with splash art.
Square is fully on-board.

He's making it, and bless Sakurai for letting it happen.

Banjo
Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

I could see it happening. I think Western third parties being completely off the table is just a dumb fan rule that doesn't matter. With ballot popularity he certainly has a chace.

 

[VexTheHex]

Banjo and Kazooie
Chance - 40%
We don't know if Microsoft is or isn't playing ball with Nintendo for this or vise versa. They're iconic and decently demanded. But whether they are demanded to quite the level of getting Nintendo and Microsoft to work together... I'm not sure on that. I could see them being DLC in a similar light to Cloud. I'm not counting them out by any means though, but there's limited spaces left on the base roster.
Want - 100%
Loved and played quite a bit of one of their games in the past. While I am not exactly a super fan of them or anything, I still think it'd be cool to see them make it in.

Geno
Chance - 64%
One of those long requested characters, but he probably is the most awkwardly positioned out of everyone. He is basically a 3rd party Mario character, would he need his own icon for example? A little bit of a perplexing case, but this is his best bet of getting into Smash and it's very possible this doll got in from the sheer fan demand and Sakurai seeming to like him as well. Not a sealed deal since he is a 3rd party Mario character from one game, so his resume is purely fan demand. But this game is catering to that.
Want - 80%
Very little personal attachment to him since I played that game a long time ago and didn't finish it. But he is pretty different looking and would look good in Smash.

Noms 5x Gardevoir

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Banjo & Kazooie:

Chance: 20% - I'm not convinced they're happening in the base game, I won't count them out completely due to their likely very strong ballot placement, but I think Nintendo and Microsoft's recent buddy-buddy relationship got going too late for it to count for this game. I also think Phil Spencer replying to anyone completely unprovoked on Twitter about whether he'd allow them into the game is an indication that he hadn't been approached about them at the time, otherwise he'd just keep his jabber shut. I think they're incredibly likely when DLC rolls around, maybe even as the first announcement, but their chance for the base game isn't great.

Want: 60% - Not characters I feel anything for personally, but I'd be very happy for their fanbase as they've been through some turbulent two decades. The reaction across the whole internet would also be a sight to behold, and they'd also fit in well.

Geno:

Chance: 80% - At this point it's more relevant to ask what Geno doesn't have going for him, but I'm going through the positives anyway. His Mii Costume and how it was treated is very notable, Sakurai wants him and recognizes his popularity, K. Rool killed the relevancy argument, longtime fan favorites are being prioritized, Vergeben has said a Square Enix character is in, and the project plan was finished around the same time the Mii Costume came out, making it incredibly likely that the negotiations for him to make it into Ultimate were held at the same time they did them for Cloud and the Mii Costume for Smash 4.

It's all adding up, and I am beginning to find it difficult to think that he won't be in. I'm not going all-in simply because of the character's relative obscurity in the wider scope, but he's maybe the most likely unique newcomer at this point.

Want: 75% - I haven't ever been part of the Geno fanbase, but with Ridley and K. Rool in it just feels like it has to happen, it'd almost be wrong if it didn't happen now, it'd be like leaving an old comrade behind. I fully understand that there are people who don't like the idea of this old flash in the pan character making it, but in Smash fanbase terms Geno is so much more than that, he's one of the biggest fish left, and I can only say that his fanbase deserves their reward for sticking with mission impossible out of nothing but sheer passion for the character.

Just a year ago thinking back on Geno's support during Brawl was like some crazy dream, it felt like something that would only happen back then, back when we were so naive to just vouch for what was cool and not taking any perceived rules into consideration. The concept of Geno in Smash is so far detached from the way the Smash fanbase has been thinking for a decade's worth of time, up until Ultimate happened that is, and now somehow it looks like it might actually happen. If it really does it's going to be surreal, the ultimate representation of a character getting in solely on fan demand, I can't help but find that thought incredibly charming.

 

[Dee Dude]

Geno
Chances: 75% Yeah, he’s actually pretty likely with Sakurai aware of his support, wanting him in Brawl, and giving him a Mii Costume being the one with splash art.
I think the only obstacles he has left is if Square refuses to lend him thinking Cloud’s enough or if Sakurai doesn’t feel like it or forgets, otherwise he’s almost guaranteed even though I hate the assumption of someone being a “lock”.

Want: 30% ...Yeah still not seeing the big deal, not everyone played SMRPG back in the day unless you’re now downloading it on Eshop and there’s way more popular and recognizable Mario characters that are still missing their spots. I wouldn’t care if he happened but I prefer him and Mallow both playable to keep it fair for both SMRPG party members.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chances: 50/50% Way far from being guaranteed but not as unlikely as some think, Microsoft isn’t some stingy SE tier company that treats the bear & bird like their precious pets we used to paint them as. They know the love the long time fans like me still garner for them, that with the obvious thumbs up Phil Spencer gives for their possible inclusion in. I obviously know it means an but atleast know it gives assurance that they fine with lending their current IP to Nintendo for this occasion espically with their recent cross-play so take that to mind as well. At the very least they aren’t in base game, then the outcry will be even more powerful for DLC.

Want: 90% Yes! Absolutely would love them! Despite growing up with both games as a kid, I never cared about their inclusion for SSB4 because I thought they were a complete pipe dream...which is wrong of course considering Sakurai brought in the like of Mega Man, Cloud, Ryu, etc. Thanks to King K. Rool’s inclusion at last, it finally triggered the kid in me to desire their return in Smash as well, I know K.Rool still belongs to Nintendo regardless but that isn’t the point. What matters is that Sakurai and Ninty themselves realized knew people were crossing their hearts for a long-forgotten character created by Rare and it came to me that if an “irrelevant” caped crown wearing crocodilian can be revived thanks to the power of Smash then then so can the duo of a backpack wielding ursine and red avian.

Nomination: Assist Trophy DLC x5

 

[Koopaul]

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 40%
I used to think there wasn't a snowball's chance in hell for these guys but after this cross platform play and Minecraft etc. I feel like their chances are a little better.
Want: 50%
Back in the Melee days they were my most wanted characters in Smash. I have changed my tune since then. Having them on board will be unprecedented. They will be the first characters owned by a direct competitor to Nintendo that will get in the game and that worries me a little.

Geno
Chance: 80%
After seeing both Ridley and K. Rool I saw his chances skyrocket. Sakurai is really trying to get as many fan favorites in this game as possible in some form or another (like Shovel Knight as an AT) so Geno seems pretty likely considering he himself even talked about the guy and included him as a costume.
Want: 10%
He could be cool. I just don't get his popularity. He was in the one game and didn't even have that interesting of a personality. I guess it was his concept that everyone loved and his flashy powers.

Nominations:
Barbara × 5

 

[WeXzuZ]

Geno
Want: 80%
Chance: 99%
I would want Geno, his chances are pretty high IMHO. He was a Mii costume, Sakurai has mentioned the high demand for his inclusion, Ridley and K. Rool have in my opinion been below Geno in number of requests - at least it would make more sense to wait with Geno's inclusion for later for increased hype levels. If Geno does not happen, I will play SSBU for 5 minutes with tap jump on! You can quote me on this!

Banjo-Kazooie
Want 100%
Chance: 50%
As much as I would LOVE to include my favorite gaming icons, it is painful to also realize how slim their chances are (my 50% chance rate is biased). They have been highly requested on many polls, but this does not necessarily reflect the ballot results. Phil Spencer gave his blessing, but that doesnt mean that they would be free - money could block their inclusion.
If they were announced as DLC, I would pay 100$ if I had to. I want them that much.

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Unless specified otherwise, I’ll be talking about the base roster.
Geno:
Chance: 50%
Want: 10%

Geno’s popularity surprises me to this day still, and that’s the key to his chances. That being said, I’m not 100% sure whether Square is going to play ball with a second character, considering the rather lacking Final Fantasy content in Ultimate. (especially when compared to Konami and Capcom’s content. Each of these got 2 uniques, sure, but just compare castlevania content to ff content that we know of.) I can easily see him become DLC since I’d wager Square being able to profit from that. But... I’m not dismissing him from the base roster entirely.
Though I’ll be honest, I’m not really interested in him.

Banjo & Kazooie:
Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

I feel like BK’s chances are being overestimated by alot of people. Yes, Spencer has said that he’d be fine with them getting in, but I have to wonder why he wouldn’t say that once asked the question. The only way I can see BK getting into the base roster is if Microsoft decides to port Banjo-Kazooie over to the switch like with Minecraft. Otherwise, I can’t see them getting in outside of DLC.
...Still. I’ve seen let’s plays of their first game, I can see a moveset being made. Also a BK stage with grunty dissing various fighters with rhymes would be amazing.

 

[ZRoy]

Geno:

Chance - 100%
Want - 85%

At this point I would be shocked if Geno is not in the game. Sakurai wanted him before in Brawl I believe and ofc he was a Mii Fighter costume. I just feel like his chances are unbelievably high and it’s almost inevitable.

Banjo Kazooie:

Chance - 50%
Want - 80%

Not in the base game. He’s DLC. I mean, after Cloud was announced, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Can you guys believe we got a PlayStation character first rather than Banjo?
The only drawback I have about this choice is that Banjo is a Western creation. But we have Shovel Knight in there too. No doubt Sakurai had to call overseas or something to Yacht Club Games for that. It’s really 50/50 for me.