Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Oddly enough, the japanese poll section that was part of the bigger polls was actually not a real poll, and it was conducted in a tentative at best way. This was push dustin's (from source gaming) putting polls from all over the internet together, and when he tried to find a Japanese poll he couldn't. What he did instead was go on the japanese ballot announcement on twitter and he gauged the responses to mentioned names with a scale of "favorable to unfavorable" based on what was being said around them with varying degrees of accuracy.

Take that part of the poll out and Shantae is now #3 in USA and EU. I would have included this information but my post was already long enough.

Everyone knows that polls aren't indicative of the larger ballot, however, they do show that Shantae has substantial support within core smash communities. Having core support is what made K Rool, Ridley, and Isaac strong presences on the polls and likely the ballot. Those characters are not extremely well known to the bigger casual audience that you are claiming would dwarf Shantae's chances. (except maybe K Rool).

I've said before that you'd only need roughly 20k votes to make it big on the ballot. And if you use the polls as a 1-1 test, you'll see that 50% of all the votes go to the top 20 characters. and after the top 50, there's around 20% of the remaining votes. Considering that Sakurai stated the ballot to have only 1.8 mil votes, we can kind of gauge what shantae would need to place high.

There's a very likely scenario that she did perfectly well on the ballot because of her focused fan support. People banded together to support Shantae as much as people banded together to support Geno. The larger audience is what I feel is the irrelevant data, because they weren't unified, contributing to the tail end of the ballot.

I can mathematically prove that she at least got top 100 if you consider her kickstarter backers as 1-1 shantae supporters and voters. She got around 18500 backers for HGH.
If she got half of her twitter following as voters she's definitely top 20.

As for foreign influence, Shantae's games have been localized in Japan, she's got enough fans there to warrant two different companies making statues of her (one is going to go for $400) And she made top ten in a recent German poll. It's tough to see how much support she has elsewhere because USA seems to be far more interested in smash polls than other countries.

All this is on top of the large amount of other evidence, which is what led me to believe that she's in the game at all.

If you want, PM me to continue this before we get removed for being off topic by a mod or something.

You won’t get in trouble for healthy debate, and in fact it is very much encouraged. The only thing that is frowned upon is continuing to talk about characters or concepts after their days are over. Other than that, as long as things are kept civil, feel free to carry on!

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

GoodGrief741 , YOU'RE ALMOST AT 1K MESSAGES! So, for this momentous occasion, what would you like to say to all the fans out there?

With that being said...

DIXIE KONG

Dixie is probably the most highly requested Donkey Kong character to date besides K. Rool, as a start, but probably what puts her in the most favor is the amount of representation she has been getting in recent games. Forget Tiny, Lanky, and Chunky Kong, Nintendo has been putting a heavy emphasis on Dixie. Being one of the 4 playable characters 5 playable characters in Tropical Freeze, she has had a complete move set reworking from the game that could translate well to Smash, with Tropical Freeze being a 2.5d platformer with attacks on enemies. Cranky, however, probably won't work, if we are looking at the last of the first 4 playable Tropical Freeze characters. His shtick of using a stick (a walking stick, I kept it close to shtick to make it sound better) and being crippled can only get him so far, and hasn't been as emphasized as a "FIGHTER!" as Dixie has. I don't know how else to describe it; she's been playable in 16 games (first appearing as a playable character in Donkey Kong Country 2 in 1994, and as the lead character in Donkey Kong Country 3 in 1996), and has made cameos in the latest 3 Smash Bros Games not including Ultimate. Cranky was the shopkeeper back in Donkey Kong Country Returns for one, and was playable for the first time in Tropical Freeze. Sure, she would probably work as an Echo, but the easier place-able Donkey Kong series Echo would probably be Funky Kong as an Echo of Donkey Kong himself. Dixie's body shape fits with Diddy's, and the Incineroar/Dry Bowser/Shadow/Dixie Kong fake leak from a couple weeks ago actually may have created more hype for Dixie! Even though it was disproven, the move set that was given to Dixie, which was identical to Diddy's (because she was placed as an Echo) except for the brand new Up-Special and Side-Jab actually was extremely believable. She would be great as an Echo. She's more popular than Funky Kong (even though Funky doesn't have nearly as much unique potential as Dixie does), and would slide in well with Diddy. But, that's where my Echo-rant stops. Dixie could very much work as a unique fighter, an adjective that Funky cannot quite achieve (except for the surfboard). Dixie's abilities in Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze say it all. Her Helicopter Twirl/Hair Whip/More unique nameless abilities can all be utilized in creating the move set for the third most prominent Kong, and could be enough to make her a brand spanking new character. All in all, I predict that Nintendo adds her as an Echo; even though Dixie has been highly requested by the fans, which would make her the type of character that would be added, based on previous additions. But still, I consider the chances that she is added as a playable fighter to be very likely. So, ultimately (get it), I rate Dixie at a...

Chance: 72.5%

We already got K. Rool. But THAT'S NOT STOPPING ME FROM WANTING A 4TH DK REP! Before this year's E3, I felt like King K. Rool and Dixie Kong would both need to be playable for SMBU to be considered complete. Now that we got K. Rool, I still am feeling that way about Dixie. She would be completing the Donkey Kong reps. The main characters of DKC 1, 2 and 3, along with the main villain in all of them are all playable? That is the finished roster that I'm hoping for. Granted it might be a bit too much to wish for too many characters, I'm hoping that Dixie is playable in some certain way, shape, or form. She is one of the few that I'm dying to have, but would immediately settle for her as an Echo if it meant that she was playable. I want her as an Echo more than I want Funky Kong as an Echo, as do most of her supporters, but what I referred to before is that Funky Kong has the body and move set that immediately screams "ECHO!". Dixie doesn't have that, for she is a coin flip away from being decided to be an Echo or not. I'd take her for either option. Moving past my rambling the score that I'll end up giving her for want would be...

Want: 82.5%

SHANTAE

I previously wanted Shantae, I'll have you all know. I though she would be a great, unique addition to the roster, and it would be the first representation of an Indie game in Smash at all! (Too late, Shovel Knight's an Assist). Time went on, character propositions "died" (I mean not as popular, don't kill me), such as the Chorus Kids (in replacement for Karate Joe. Remember that fake Chorus Kid leak for Smash 4? Me too) and some sprang out of the blue, such as Incineroar's. Finally, the Switch rolls around, and the Crash Bandicoot N'Sane Trilogy gets announced for the Switch. From that point on, two things happened. For one, Crash's support for Smash 5 SKYROCKETED as for the first time, his games were available on a Nintendo console. Given now, the hype has subdued for Crash4Smash, but it got my gears rolling. What did Shantae do for gaming? Why would she even be included? Sure, her games may be fun, and her move set could possibly work, but why? Why would Sakurai look at Shantae, a Western Indie game character, of all things, and say, "That's who we need in the roster." That would be better fit for: Nintendo IPs for one, such as Dixie Kong, Incineroar, Isaac, or Karate Joe; gaming icons in general that Nintendo may be able to get their hands on, such as Crash, Spyro, Rayman, and Banjo & Kazooie; quite possibly characters who have been requested a whole bunch in fan polls and the Fighter Ballot, because Sakurai has been picking a lot of those recently. Those could be Bandana Dee, Geno, Chibi-Robo, or Andy. What makes Shantae so special compared to all of these others? The answer is, there isn't a real reason. Her games are fun, sure. She's a prominent indie character with limited ties to Nintendo. Sure, there's more reasons, but those were about it for the big ones. She just really isn't that important to being in Smash, much less important to gaming in general. It's hard to revolutionize an industry as big as the video game one at that. There isn't a large, compelling argument for her inclusion, and I believe Nintendo understands that. Shovel Knight getting AS AN ASSIST TROPHY was even a bit of a stretch, for Shovel Knight didn't do too much in that aspect either. I'd argue that Shovel Knight's importance to gaming is vastly larger than Shantae's, doubled with Shovel Knight's greater popularity than Shantae's. I'm not hating on her, just that I don't think it is all too likely, which is why Shantae gets...

Chance: 5%

She has an interesting design, to say the least. I glanced at somebody saying that her design was comparable to Urbosa's from Breath of the Wild, and I'd agree with that. She would be an easier peg in than Shantae, a 1st party of one of Nintendo's biggest franchises versus an Indie character. I personally wouldn't want either, but I thought I'd mention it. I wouldn't be mad if she was in I guess, I'd just rather see characters who are (don't get mad at me) "more important" than her. Even Quote from Cave Story, another Indie character, has had an effect. Cave Story was one of the very first breakout Indie game series, with it being labeled as the "Quintessential Indie Game", and Quote would also work in Smash alongside Shantae. Why is Shantae so much popular? Please let me know. I honestly don't see as much of the appeal as everyone else does for Shantae. Having Shantae represent Indie games would be cool to see with her being in the roster, but I would've rather have Shovel Knight do that. All I'm going to say is that there are better and more deserving characters that should get in, and Shantae being requested is just a plea from the Indie games community to be represented in Smash. I admire that effort. Just not Shantae. Somebody else that has had a larger impact. So...

Want: 7.5%

Noms: Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Erimir]

Here's a video on the subject, explaining it in full.

Also, here's the original thread on it.

This reminds me of the arguments about how the roster had to be a certain size or whatever based on the Wii U or 3DS character select screens we saw before release. "Sakurai would never have them in the order you're saying because he values good UI design" "they'd never have two pages" etc. and then it turned out those were incorrect inferences. (Although two pages on the 3DS was only for DLC.) I knew someone who very vehemently disagreed with me on that (to the point of getting insulting) and he turned out to be wrong.

The picture is just a mock up, obviously Isabelle is not on it, and the final box could vary in a number of ways.

Oddly enough, the japanese poll section that was part of the bigger polls was actually not a real poll, and it was conducted in a tentative at best way.

My point was that it doesn't show that Shantae "topped" "every" poll.

Having core support is what made K Rool, Ridley, and Isaac strong presences on the polls and likely the ballot. Those characters are not extremely well known to the bigger casual audience that you are claiming would dwarf Shantae's chances. (except maybe K Rool).

Metroid is a far better selling series than Shantae, with several million+ selling games.

I've said before that you'd only need roughly 20k votes to make it big on the ballot. And if you use the polls as a 1-1 test, you'll see that 50% of all the votes go to the top 20 characters. and after the top 50, there's around 20% of the remaining votes. Considering that Sakurai stated the ballot to have only 1.8 mil votes, we can kind of gauge what shantae would need to place high.

Shantae is not the only series with passionate fans, and there are series with higher sales and passionate fans. I might as well suppose that every person who bought Metroid Prime: Trilogy voted for Ridley or Dark Samus. That would make >300k votes for each! Or hell, let's make it 1/3rd of them voted for Ridley or Dark Samus, that's 100k each! That would make Ridley dwarf Shantae's support, without even having fans nearly as passionate.

There's a very likely scenario that she did perfectly well on the ballot because of her focused fan support. People banded together to support Shantae as much as people banded together to support Geno. The larger audience is what I feel is the irrelevant data, because they weren't unified, contributing to the tail end of the ballot.

I can mathematically prove that she at least got top 100 if you consider her kickstarter backers as 1-1 shantae supporters and voters. She got around 18500 backers for HGH.
If she got half of her twitter following as voters she's definitely top 20.

There is absolutely no reason to think that every Shantae Kickstarter backer voted for her in the Ballot. It is a highly implausible scenario. Not all of them are Smash fans, not all of them cared enough to vote in the Ballot, not all of them want Shantae for Smash, not all of them want Shantae more than other characters they might vote for instead, etc. etc.

These lines of evidence basically rely on other characters' fanbases not having any passion. If you make similarly charitable assumptions about other character, there would be far more votes than 1.8 million, don't you think?

As for foreign influence, Shantae's games have been localized in Japan, she's got enough fans there to warrant two different companies making statues of her (one is going to go for $400)

It selling for $400 is not actually evidence of her popularity, but the opposite.

If they have to sell it for $400, that means it is expected to be a very low volume item, and that they need to charge a lot to make it worth it to make them. If they were going to sell a million of them, they would have economies of scale and sell it for a lower price. amiibo sell for more like $13, and they sell a lot more copies.

All this is on top of the large amount of other evidence, which is what led me to believe that she's in the game at all.

Your evidence might be suggestive, but it is nowhere near 100% proof.

She could still be in, but there's no reason to base your argument on essentially the notion that she's one of the most popular video game characters out there. If she were, her games would be bigger hits!

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 , YOU'RE ALMOST AT 1K MESSAGES! So, for this momentous occasion, what would you like to say to all the fans out there?

Dixie Kong: Rating coming soon

Errr, I have fans? Well then, I guess, vote for me in the ballot and let’s rally support for DLC. #GoodGrief4Smash

To make this post somewhat resemble being on-topic, a reminder that tomorrow the top seven (or rather, eight, as a double day is in the cards) will be locked down.

 

[Shinuto]

This reminds me of the arguments about how the roster had to be a certain size or whatever based on the Wii U or 3DS character select screens we saw before release. "Sakurai would never have them in the order you're saying because he values good UI design" "they'd never have two pages" etc. and then it turned out those were incorrect inferences. (Although two pages on the 3DS was only for DLC.) I knew someone who very vehemently disagreed with me on that (to the point of getting insulting) and he turned out to be wrong.

The picture is just a mock up, obviously Isabelle is not on it, and the final box could vary in a number of ways.
My point was that it doesn't show that Shantae "topped" "every" poll.
Metroid is a far better selling series than Shantae, with several million+ selling games.
Shantae is not the only series with passionate fans, and there are series with higher sales and passionate fans. I might as well suppose that every person who bought Metroid Prime: Trilogy voted for Ridley or Dark Samus. That would make >300k votes for each! Or hell, let's make it 1/3rd of them voted for Ridley or Dark Samus, that's 100k each! That would make Ridley dwarf Shantae's support, without even having fans nearly as passionate.
There is absolutely no reason to think that every Shantae Kickstarter backer voted for her in the Ballot. It is a highly implausible scenario. Not all of them are Smash fans, not all of them cared enough to vote in the Ballot, not all of them want Shantae for Smash, not all of them want Shantae more than other characters they might vote for instead, etc. etc.

These lines of evidence basically rely on other characters' fanbases not having any passion. If you make similarly charitable assumptions about other character, there would be far more votes than 1.8 million, don't you think?
It selling for $400 is not actually evidence of her popularity, but the opposite.

If they have to sell it for $400, that means it is expected to be a very low volume item, and that they need to charge a lot to make it worth it to make them. If they were going to sell a million of them, they would have economies of scale and sell it for a lower price. amiibo sell for more like $13, and they sell a lot more copies.

Your evidence might be suggestive, but it is nowhere near 100% proof.

She could still be in, but there's no reason to base your argument on essentially the notion that she's one of the most popular video game characters out there. If she were, her games would be bigger hits!

that....thats not how pricing of stuff works....at all. You typically sell more than the amount it takes to MAKE said product so you make a profit but not by THAT amount. the figures of Shantae are a much higher quality and well BIGGER than amiibos.

also of course not every follower on their twitter would vote Shantae..thats why it mentioned "if atleast half of them" to paraphrase abit.

 

[aarchak]

This reminds me of the arguments about how the roster had to be a certain size or whatever based on the Wii U or 3DS character select screens we saw before release. "Sakurai would never have them in the order you're saying because he values good UI design" "they'd never have two pages" etc. and then it turned out those were incorrect inferences. (Although two pages on the 3DS was only for DLC.) I knew someone who very vehemently disagreed with me on that (to the point of getting insulting) and he turned out to be wrong.

The picture is just a mock up, obviously Isabelle is not on it, and the final box could vary in a number of ways.

Exactly. People are inferring into stuff that's easily changed. I don't believe the box theory for a second.

 

[Freelance Spy]

She could still be in, but there's no reason to base your argument on essentially the notion that she's one of the most popular video game characters out there. If she were, her games would be bigger hits!

The polls aren't the crux of my argument, just something to prove that she actually has a following. The $400 statue is one of much higher quality than the other, $90 statue, hence why I brought it up. There are figures that sell for similar amounts from much more popular series from the same company.

I'm not arguing that Shantae is as popular as any of these other games you mention, just that it's popular enough to do well in the confines of the Smash Ballot. From all the data we've gathered from the polls, it honestly suggests that she's a popular pick for smash.

The 100% proof is based solely on Wayforwards uncharacteristic silence, references to smash in her newest game which was made during the time ultimate was being developed, and references to Shantae in smash. That's also not me saying that she's playable, as that remains to be seen. Just that she's in the game in some capacity else it is incredibly weird that Wayforward wouldn't just deconfirm her. If she's not in I will be surprised at WF's handling of the situation.

 

[Travix Man]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 80%. She is the third protagonist of the Donkey Kong Country series and is the fourth popular character behind DK, Diddy, and King K. Rool (forgive me if I mixed up my popularity charts). She appeared as one of the main protagonists of DKC2 and DKC3, and has reappeared in Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze after some years of absence following Donkey Kong Country Returns. Although she could work as an echo fighter of Diddy, I can see more of a Luigified version of Diddy's moveset, especially since Dixie uses her hair more and is more aerobatic.

Want: 100%. King K. Rool has been confirmed, so now Dixie needs to complete the series.

Shantae

Chance: 30%. Aside from Wayforward being silent about the possibility Shantae in Smash, I think she had about the same chances of Shovel Knight to be in Smash Ultimate. I see her as an assist trophy at best, though I'd like to be proven wrong if she's in. She did have a ton of fans rooting for her in the Smash Ballot era, so she could have a chance.

Want: 10%. I never played any of her games, so I don't care if she's in or not. If she's in, good for her fans.

 

[DaUsername]

Shantae
Chance:5%
Since Shovel Knight only got in as an AT, I don't see Shantae or any other indie character being anything more than that. Sure, she's been around longer than SK, and has more games, but that probably doesn't matter much.
I could end up being wrong, though.
Want: N/A
Abstaining from Dixie.

Hilda prediction: 5%
Impa prediction: 10%

Well I saw you nominte Llyod...and I uhh think we have ENOUGH swordfighters in this damn Smash. ohhh but he use TWO swords ohho so exciting, he can bore us twice as much.

Hey, I don't know about that guy, but just because someone noms a character it doesn't always mean they want that character.



Noms: Nathan Drake x5

 

[Shark X]

Just going to say, Dixie was already deconfirmed, so I'd say 0% chance. Also, no way she'd be an echo. She'd be more like Isabelle, a semi-clone. There's no way she could work as a Diddy echo. Their moves are just too different.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Just going to say, Dixie was already deconfirmed, so I'd say 0% chance. Also, no way she'd be an echo. She'd be more like Isabelle, a semi-clone. There's no way she could work as a Diddy echo. Their moves are just too different.

How was she disconfirmed?

I know there's Music Theory, but...

 

[Shark X]

How was she disconfirmed?

I know there's Music Theory, but...

I never understand how people don't see this. Richter was in Simon's trailer. Greninja was in Charizard's trailer. Dixie would have been in K.Rool's, and wasn't. It was the perfect time to confirm her, and she wasn't in the trailer. I'd say her chances sky rocketed for DLC or Smash 6, but not 5's base roster.

 

[Kotor]

Just going to say, Dixie was already deconfirmed, so I'd say 0% chance. Also, no way she'd be an echo. She'd be more like Isabelle, a semi-clone. There's no way she could work as a Diddy echo. Their moves are just too different.

How?

 

[Glaciacott]

I never understand how people don't see this. Richter was in Simon's trailer. Greninja was in Charizard's trailer. Dixie would have been in K.Rool's, and wasn't. It was the perfect time to confirm her, and she wasn't in the trailer. I'd say her chances sky rocketed for DLC or Smash 6, but not 5's base roster.

Dark Samus was in Ridley's trailer too... oh wait, no, that didn't happen

But you see where I'm going

 

[Sari]

I never understand how people don't see this. Richter was in Simon's trailer. Greninja was in Charizard's trailer. Dixie would have been in K.Rool's, and wasn't. It was the perfect time to confirm her, and she wasn't in the trailer. I'd say her chances sky rocketed for DLC or Smash 6, but not 5's base roster.

Bowser Jr. wasn't in Rosalina's trailer (both Mario characters) so this argument doesn't make much sense. Also why wasn't Dark Samus in Ridley's trailer then?

Richter was thrown into Simon's trailer since he is very obscure and they wanted to make a big deal of this unknown character being an echo. Charizard was in Greninja's trailer since people thought he was deconfirmed, since Sakurai stated earlier in that Direct that switching-related characters would be absent in SSB4.

K. Rool is one of the all time most requested Smash characters, so they wanted to make the trailer solely focused on him. Dixie is very popular on her own as well, so like Bowser Jr. and Dark Samus she deserves her own separate announcement.

 

[Speculator]

Dixie Kong:

Chance 60%, a perfectly possible and sensible echo fighter. If she was supposedly considered for Brawl as an addition to Diddy, then this would be a good opportunity to revisit her. There is some merit to the idea that her reveal would have come alongside K. Rool, but I don't think that's a hard and fast rule. Richter is the only echo we've seen with CG trailer footage, the rest have just been gameplay so she could get a simple trailer like that.


Want 10%, hard to get excited about Diddy in drag. Although I do love Lucina, so I'd be happy for those of you out there who love Donkey Kong as much as I love Fire Emblem.


Shantae:

Chance 0%; not happening in a million years, see Banjo. Ballot spam couldn't get Shovel Knight in as a fighter, it certainly can't get a mostly forgotten Game Boy series represented. "History with Nintendo" is simply not that much of a factor.

Look at the other third party reps; all of them, barring perhaps Bayonetta, are huge mascots from genre-defining (and Japanese) series. Shantae doesn't even come close to any of them. I don't know if people are willingly pulling the wool over their own eyes or if they genuinely believe Shantae is a big enough name, but c'mon guys. Temper your expectations.

Want 60%, her games are fun and I have no doubt she'd be an interesting fighter. Cool music too.

 

[Smasher 101]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 50%

Could work well as a semi-clone even if not a full echo (though I think she could still take that route), and she's a pretty popular choice. Also a pretty major character, and currently relevant thanks to Tropical Freeze. However, I feel like other characters might have been more popular, and that it's entirely possible we've seen our one and only DK newcomer. I do think there's several characters left personally, and I could definitely see her being one of them, but limited spots in general makes me hesitant to rank most characters higher than a coin flip at this point.

Want: 100%

With King K. Rool confirmed, Dixie is now my most wanted Nintendo newcomer. Donkey Kong is one of my favorite franchises and I think it should have four characters now. Dixie's not only the most logical next choice in my eyes, she's also my favorite Kong, and I'd love to be able to fight as her. Though I'd prefer her being a semi-clone; an echo would be better than nothing, I suppose, but I don't think it would be the best fit.

Shantae

Chance: Abstain
Want: 30%

Shantae's alright, but never was someone I wanted in Smash. I'd rather third parties be a little bigger for the most part. Still, she could be fun.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I never understand how people don't see this. Richter was in Simon's trailer. Greninja was in Charizard's trailer. Dixie would have been in K.Rool's, and wasn't. It was the perfect time to confirm her, and she wasn't in the trailer. I'd say her chances sky rocketed for DLC or Smash 6, but not 5's base roster.

Richter is Simon’s Echo. Charizard was a returning veteran. They are vastly different circumstances. You’d have been better off naming Robin and Lucina, but even then Ridley and Dark Samus, or Rosalina and Bowser Jr., go against your logic. A character is disconfirmed when they are shown in a capacity that isn’t playable, anything else is just speculation.

 

[11th]

Team Ponytail day.


Dixie Kong
Chance: 12.5% (1/8) - With K. Rool confirmed and announcement time dwindling, I just can't see her as a likely choice for now, though she definitely has the popularity and history. The idea of her being an Echo has been floating around, but I feel that would be a huge disservice to her. Semi-clone might work.
Want: 40% - Not a high priority for me, but I do like her and have fond memories of DKC2/3 from when I was younger. A member of Team Ponytail.

Shantae
Chance: 4% (1/25) - She's an indie third-party who is better known in the West, and that alone really hurts her chances. Still, she has some history with Nintendo, multiple games under her belt, and moveset potential, so I can't completely count her out.
Want: 10% - Very low priority, and I have a preference for first/second-parties, but gets some points for being part of the ponytail trio. (Dixie, Shantae, and Lip.)


Skipping on noms again.

 

[candyissweet]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 40% - Not really sure what to say about Dixie, but she's in a really weird position, and I feel like the only way she could get in at this point is as an echo fighter of Diddy. Yes, Isabelle got in as her own unique fighter, but Isabelle is the face of her franchise, so making her an echo would be like making Mario an echo fighter of Dr. Mario. I wouldn't say that K Rool being in the game affects her chances in any way, but her falling in the gray category between echo and unique makes me kind of uncertain about her. However, she does have popularity and relevance on her side, and she's one of the most major first party characters not in yet.
Want: 80% - I'd prefer her as a unique fighter, but if she could get onto the base roster, that would be pretty sweet, since they could declone her in future installments.
Shantae
Chance: 20% - Being an indie character makes me very uncertain about her chances. While people say Shovel Knight being an Assist Trophy hinders her chances, there is the possibility that it is leading up to an even bigger playable indie character reveal. Although she had ballot presence, I feel that ultimately, third party characters (and even more so for indie characters) will have lower priority than the popular first party characters who have been on the waitlist for a while. There's a good chance that she could show up as an assist trophy, and I do acknowledge that the slumber party reference could mean something, but the current circumstances surrounding Shantae just make her a lower priority character than the other popular choices this time around.
Want: 15% - She has a lot of moveset potential, good design, and she is arguably iconic. I'm open to indie characters like Shantae and Shovel Knight joining the roster in the future, but I feel like now is not the time. There are several first party characters who have waited since Brawl to shine, so I would be a little annoyed if a character who didn't really have much presence in Smash speculation until the ballot were to take up a slot on the roster that could have gone to someone who has been waiting for it longer. Not trying to hate on Shovel Knight and Shantae, just saying that if they don't get in this time, never give up on them, for I think these two characters can become pretty iconic to Smash speculation to the point where Smash might finally let them in eventually.

 

[Erimir]

that....thats not how pricing of stuff works....at all. You typically sell more than the amount it takes to MAKE said product so you make a profit but not by THAT amount. the figures of Shantae are a much higher quality and well BIGGER than amiibos.

I didn't say anything about their quality or size.

But one point is that a $400 price tag doesn't indicate popularity - much as $13 price tag on amiibos doesn't indicate that they are unpopular!

You're not going to even bother trying to explain why you think "the pricing of stuff" doesn't work that way at all, but I'll give you a quick example to show why a $400 price tag doesn't indicate popularity. This book about the Morphosyntax of Albanian and Aromanian Varieties costs $109. A new copy of Twilight costs $9 to $12.

It sure the **** isn't because the linguistics book is more popular. It is very much the opposite. It also isn't because printing the linguistics book costs 10x as much in raw materials or requires extra special printing techniques. And it also isn't because Stephanie Meyer was paid less than the author of the linguistics book (she was paid far, far more).

The fact that there's a $400 Shantae figure doesn't show that she's popular. The existence of large amounts of affordable Shantae merchandise would.

 

[P.Kat]

Shantae

Chance 85%
Some would say that with Shovel Knight being that could hinder her chance, but I believe that, that actually helps her chances.
Aside rom that increasing her chances their is also WayForward's silence on all things Smash related, as well the hints from her latest DLC that coincidentally seems to relate to Smash Ultimate. A DLC that was supposedly given for free in celebration to all the fans of the game but what if it was also to low key celebrate Shantae being in Smash? Whether it's Base Roster, DLC, or even an Assist Trophy, I Believe that Shantae is in the game in someway.
Want 100%
After how much fun I had playing her game, Shantae definitely became one of my most wanted characters in Smash. Along with her Genie magic (fire, lightning, weapon summoning) shapeshifting, and her overall enjoyable, and quirky personality, I think Shantae would fit right in, in Smash.

Dixie Kong

Chance 60%
The whole situation is weird, you'd think she'd somehow make it at the same time or close to the same time as King K. Rool, but that's not the case. Also if she made it in what would she be an echo, semi-clone, possibly unique? No one can really say. I feel like she in this unknown gray area speculation wise.

Want 60%
I would love to have Dixie Kong in Smash, both to see what she would be (echo, semi, unique), as well as what moves they'd give her.

Nomination Amaterasu x5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 10%
I don't think Dixie is likely to get in the base roster, due to King K. Rool. If she's going to be in the game, they would have revealed her alongside King K. Rool, which we didn't and even then, they might make her a semi-clone just like what they did to Isabelle recently. But, who knows, they could put her in as an Echo of Diddy, which I wouldn't mind at all.

Want: 50%
I like Dixie Kong as a character and as much as I like her to be in the game, there are other characters in my wishlist that needs to appear first before Dixie. But I do play DKC games when I was a kid, especially DKC2, where I always play as Dixie.

Abstain on Shantae. I haven't played any of her games so I can't really rate her right now.

Nominations:
Concept: Melemele Island stage x5 (I ran out of ideas, really.)

 

[Shinuto]

I didn't say anything about their quality or size.

But one point is that a $400 price tag doesn't indicate popularity - much as $13 price tag on amiibos doesn't indicate that they are unpopular!

You're not going to even bother trying to explain why you think "the pricing of stuff" doesn't work that way at all, but I'll give you a quick example to show why a $400 price tag doesn't indicate popularity. This book about the Morphosyntax of Albanian and Aromanian Varieties costs $109. A new copy of Twilight costs $9 to $12.

It sure the **** isn't because the linguistics book is more popular. It is very much the opposite. It also isn't because printing the linguistics book costs 10x as much in raw materials or requires extra special printing techniques. And it also isn't because Stephanie Meyer was paid less than the author of the linguistics book (she was paid far, far more).

The fact that there's a $400 Shantae figure doesn't show that she's popular. The existence of large amounts of affordable Shantae merchandise would.

Why are so **** fixated on the prices? the price of something 9 times out of ten merely showd the quslity of the materials used to make it.The fact a company is willing to spend money on something where he quality of its materials makes it sold for 400$ shows something. You dont jack up the prices to make something thats failing to sell. you bring it down to meet the low demands.

 

[VexTheHex]

Dixie
Chance - 50%
Want - 85%
She's one of the ones left that I can actually consider an Icon that's not managed to get into Smash. She really deserves the spot especially over some others brought up around here or already in. She could be pretty cool as unique or semi-clone. Sadly for her, her best bet is as a echo which is disappointing. I'm banking on less rather than more newcomers left to be revealed, so I can't really rate her higher in chance even though I wish I could. Her, Toad, and Waluigi stand out as some big icons for Nintendo that should honestly be in over many already on the roster or being tossed around by the fans on here.

Shantae
Chance - 40%
Want - 60%
I never played her games and therefore have no personal attachment to her. I feel she isn't really quite the icon to get in, but I also feel she could get in for the Indie side of things while possibly peeking Sakurai's interest more than Shovel Knight. However that's still an uphill battle with her biggest plus being her makers being rather odd in regards to her and Smash like they can't reveal something. But they also pulled that jammie party thing that was rather close to Smash Ultimate's tag lines... so maybe there is something there? Though they could also be happy if she or their series got some kind of rep like a stage or AT. I think she could be an interesting and cool fighter overall.

Noms 5x Gardevoir

 

[RineYFD]

Shantae:
Chance: 50%:
I think Shantae's pretty likely. She did get the most votes out of most characters in the Smash Ballot. Not to mention she does have an old history with Nintendo, with her first game releasing on the GBC and the fact her games have actually released in Japan, meaning she does have a fanbase there. In my opinion, Shantae is the only Indie character who has a chance of getting in,
Want: 40%:
I'd think she'd be cool to play as with her Animal Transformations and Pirate Equipment. Plus her art-style really does fit well into Smash, so she's perfect honestly. I'd definitely play as her if she got in.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Why are so **** fixated on the prices? the price of something 9 times out of ten merely showd the quslity of the materials used to make it.The fact a company is willing to spend money on something where he quality of its materials makes it sold for 400$ shows something. You dont jack up the prices to make something thats failing to sell. you bring it down to meet the low demands.

The entire reasoning behind limited editions for videogames is that people will pay more for something that’s less common. That’s also why games like EarthBound (and the original Shantae) sell for such exorbitant prices on eBay. Rarity and scarcity cause low supply, and if demand is high then prices go up. So a low-selling product can and will be sold at high prices if it satisfies a specific niche, and lowering the price due to bad sales is just poor business sense.

 

[Shinuto]

The entire reasoning behind limited editions for videogames is that people will pay more for something that’s less common. That’s also why games like EarthBound (and the original Shantae) sell for such exorbitant prices on eBay. Rarity and scarcity cause low supply, and if demand is high then prices go up. So a low-selling product can and will be sold at high prices if it satisfies a specific niche, and lowering the price due to bad sales is just poor business sense.

Yes its but the fact said company even bothered to MAKE 400$ figures say something about her popularity.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Abstaining from Shantae

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 75%

I would say Dixie's chances are a lot better now that Isabelle has shown to be a semi-clone. I could see Isabelle and Dixie as the only new semi-clones on the roster. K.Rool doesn't diminish her chances I feel, if anything they might be a little better because of him because the franchise is no longer neglected. She's hugely popular, recent, and outside of Toad maybe the only true Nintendo All Star left to be added.

Want: 100%

Dixie Kong was the number one missing character from Smash 4 I felt. She had everything to make it in, backing Tropical Freeze's release. She has enough unique abilities, and the few similarities with Diddy I can celebrate still, cause Diddy is my main. Absolutely one of my most wanted aside from Isaac and Impa, who I all need desperately and am immensively greedy for.

 

[Erimir]

Why are so **** fixated on the prices? the price of something 9 times out of ten merely showd the quslity of the materials used to make it.The fact a company is willing to spend money on something where he quality of its materials makes it sold for 400$ shows something. You dont jack up the prices to make something thats failing to sell. you bring it down to meet the low demands.

Look, I was responding to someone who was implying that the $400 price tag indicated higher popularity. I'm disputing that because there are lots of scenarios where that isn't necessarily so.

Thinking that an item with relatively few buyers should lower the price is a very simplistic understanding of prices. Veblen goods don't follow the pattern you're talking about, for example. Collector's items are more valuable when they're more rare, and can demand a higher price without necessarily being higher quality/more expensive to produce.

But also you totally didn't engage with my example with the books. Why would the linguistics book seller lower the price? They don't expect to sell a million copies, they know that not that many people want the book even if they sold it at cost. The reason they sell it for such a high price is that the people who want it, really want it. Linguistics or Albanian departments at universities, students who are assigned the book, etc. they're not going to be dissuaded by a $100+ price on the book. If they sell it for $20, they will sell barely any more copies, and they'll be selling it for a fifth of the price. The kind of person who will pay >$100 for a Shantae figure is not shopping around for the best value for their money on Shantae figures. They're not considering Shantae or maybe a GI Joe or a Ninja Turtle. They really want specifically a Shantae figure, they're probably collectors, and licensing means there aren't many other Shantae figures to compete with, so you can jack up the price to whatever Shantae fanatics are willing to pay. So why sell it for $300 if you'll probably sell about as many copies at $400?

Yes its but the fact said company even bothered to MAKE 400$ figures say something about her popularity.

Sure, it indicates some level of popularity. But it doesn't tell you that much. It doesn't tell you that she's more popular than characters without overpriced $400 figurines.

Consider that Figma has Lucina, Tharja and Cordelia. The Lucina is $56, Tharja is $92 and Cordelia is $138. Which one is playable in Smash though? Which one is most popular? Sure, I'll infer that Tharja and Cordelia were more popular than most Fire Emblem characters since they bothered making figures of them at all. But it's not really informative. The existence of merchandise isn't a differentiating feature for Shantae versus the many other characters people consider plausible, and as I've pointed out, a higher price doesn't necessarily indicate greater popularity.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining on both.

Nominations
Sans (boss) x5

 

[BirthNote]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 75%

Dixie has a ton of things going for her. Series mainstay, tritagonist, co-star of the most loved SNES DKC, star of her own game long before Peach, preferred Kong in each DKC game she's playable in, respectably popular, and relevant to Ultimate's era of focus: the Wii U and 3DS era. Being considered for Brawl is actually a good sign for her, and the only thing that stood in her way was K. Rool's popularity.

Now that K. Rool's in, Dixie's the most requested DK character, and if both get in it'll be for 2 different reasons. K. Rool's riding the ballot almost entirely, while Dixie would be riding in on Tropical Freeze. They don't interfere with eachother, and K. Rool's trailer focusing on him doesn't deconfirm Dixie either. We've seen the same thing with Rosalina and Bowser Jr as well as many newcomers and Echoes, which brings me to the next point.

Up until recently, many expected an Echo out of Dixie, but even changing her UpB and replacing Diddy's tail moves won't work. Dixie relies on her hair FAR more than Diddy uses his tail; to have Dixie properly implemented she needs to use her hair for grabbing, throwing, dash attack, a recovery and as of Tropical Freeze a ground attack. That's 5 uses right there, and Diddy only uses his tail for 1.5 moves. Luckily Isabelle has shocked us all and shown that Semi-Clones aren't extinct, and realistically this should be Dixie's fate. As Wolf and Lucas show, these types are easy to develop and can be wildly different from their base. Their ease of development gives Dixie a healthy chance to be playable.

Want: 100%
DK is my favorite Nintendo series. I want Smash to have the 4 main characters playable and I want Dixie to complete it, but not as an Echo. With an over-reliance on her hair like it's an extra limb, there's tons of moveset ideas you can come up with, tons of grab options, movement choices and unorthodox attacks. None of the Kongs played exactly like the others in their games; each stood out in more than just animations and Smash should reflect that. A Dixie that doesn't grab with her hair, attack with it, use it for air-momentum and instead simply acts like Diddy isn't Dixie. She has much more going for her than that, and a Semi-Clone or completely Unique moveset are the only ways to have her properly depicted. In her case, Echo's an insult.

Shantae
Chance: 30%
Want: 50%

I know next to nothing about her and am ambivalent about her. IDC if she's in or not.

 

[Onassi2]

Abstaining from Dixie.

Shantae:

Chance: 5% (at best)

Third parties and guest characters are reserved for gaming legends (except arguably Bayonetta). No offense Shantae fans, but she would be a “literally who?” addition to the roster, especially in this game where there are probably very few newcomers. I don’t see it at all. Not while there are still characters like Crash or Banjo still around.

Want: 20%

I recognize her potential as a playable character. But mostly I’m just ambivalent. There are plenty of characters I’d like to see added first.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 30%
Overall, she's in a decent position. Isabelle proves that Semi-Clones are still a thing, which allows her to pass the "too different to be an Echo" hurdle. She has decent popularity and is pretty well known. Unfortunately, the window of opportunity is closing and the number of unrevealed newcomers is shrinking, so competition is only going to get fiercer as we get closer to release.

Want: 50%
She'd be a fun character, I do enjoy her ability to use her hair to float or lift things. They could get creative and have her use hair as a weapon also. However, there are other characters I would rather see in more.

-----

Shantae

Chance: 10%
She has a very vocal fanbase, so that helps as I do believe Ballot Support does still influence some of the inclusions to come. On the flip side, her series isn't exactly a big one and may not be enough to get on the radar as a third party fighter. Shovel Knight, while being her biggest competition, didn't make it in this time. This really doesn't help her case as the fact that if a character directly promoted by Nintendo can't get in, a smaller one the Big N doesn't have much connection with more than likely will get overlooked as well.

Want: 25%
She'd be neat, like Dixie, the hair attacks would be pretty fun. Plus Dance Magic transformations could lead to an interesting fighting style. However, she's not one I've been really wanting and if she isn't in, I wont lose any sleep.

 

[tveye]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 25% - If she was an echo, I'd say her chances are higher. Not much though. There's always a chance she'll show up in a sequel or DLC. It's just weird to see her as an echo though, but if they can give her DK's Up+B then it'd make more sense.
Want: 25% - I've always liked Diddy and Cranky more, but if she was in, I wouldn't complain.

Shantae
Chance: 1% - Very, VERY unknown character. If an obscure character gets in Smash, it's usually one with history on the NES or SNES. Also, she's third party so that drops her chances even more. Shovel Knight and Minecraft would need reps before I even think she'd ever show up.
Want: 0% - I know basically nothing about this character. I don't really play indie games though.

 

[Dee Dude]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 45% Yeah...I can’t see her happening this time, I’ll get flack for saying this but she really would’ve been in K.Rool’s trailer if she was playable, I know people like to throw the Dark Samus argument but the thing is, DS is a completely separate enemy to Samus and is unrelated to Ridley. (Unless she is, I’m not a huge Metroid fan...) Dixie fought K.Rool and is enemies with him as well but everything about K.Rool’s trailer emphasized that it was only between him vs Donkey & Diddy, and it seems to not only hurt her chances but any other DK candidate, that final punch shot seemed to solidified that the current DK roster line-up was finished for this installment, having a solo Dixie trailer would feel awkward after that epic confrontation, she would’ve been revealed first. As for Echoes? I doubt we’re getting that much as people expect and I want her to be unique/semi anyway but Sakurai might focus on other series for the rest of the newcomers.

Want: 50/50 She’s definitely a common want of mine when it comes to general Smash candidates but after K.Rool’s inclusion, I’ll be honest when I say I seem to just be satisfied with him only. She’s not much of a heavy hitter despite her decent support, I’d save her for Smash 6 or possibly DLC. Whichever happens imo.

Shantae
Chances: 15% Her chances are grossly overestimated imo, people grasp at straws when it comes to the “Ultimate Slumber Party” schtick but those “hints” mean nothing if you ask me, if the possibly she does happen, I can bet it’ll be a massive coincidence. Another supporting argument is that WayForward has been “quiet” about Smash implying they’re in a non-disclosure agreement, by that logic any game company who doesn’t talk about Smash must be in a NDA as well. The biggest detractor against her is that Shovel Knight of all people is an AT, I know it seems unfair to detract someone based on another’s merit but if you look at this way, it’s less the fact that SK isn’t playable but that any sort of Indie content such as trophies, music or even mere stickers could be seen as an absolute honor to be in a massive AAA title like Smash, her being playable would be way too much for one independent development team, so I expect an AT or nothing for her.

Want: 10% Nah, I played Half Genie but I wouldn’t want her to take priority over so many mainstream AAA characters who still have yet to be included that I’d much rather see, having an Indie playable would be too early if you ask me.

 

[Mariomaniac45213]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 50% - It really is a coin toss IMO. If she is an echo of Diddy then I raise it to about 60% but if she is a semi-clone like Isabelle then definitely 50%. Dixie while my most wanted newcomer by FAR now that K.Rool and Ridley made it, Is true....the fact that she wasn't revealed alongside K.Rool really makes me question is she gonna appear. Dixie is a popular choice but NOT that popular by fans (judging by fan polls, youtube videos, comments sections). However I've actually seen Dixie appear on fan polls unlike someone like Dark Samus (who I'm glad is in) or Richter Belmont. So Sakurai knows about her and she was even considered for Brawl. Sakurai is aware but I think it all comes down to priorities and timing. Dixie really is 50/50 IMO.

Want: 100% - I'm one of the few who doesn't really care if she is fully unique, semi-clone, or echo I just want her in the damn game ffs she DESERVES to be there. LAST NINTENDO ALL-STAR (besides Toad).

Shantae

Chance: 10% - I really don't see any indies becoming playable besides Minecraft Steve simply due to how popular the character and his series has become. He would be the perfect indie rep (if they were to go with one and even if I despise it) because he would be a recent "wider demographic" pick for kids to be excited about. I love K.Rool and Ridley but they aren't exactly a hit with the kids.....and I dont see Shantae being big enough to become playable. Sorry.

Want 0% - No offense to Shantae but it's less of a I don't like your character thing and more of "****ing tired of 3rd party characters in Smash" thing. Unfortunately Shantae falls in the latter category.

 

[BirthNote]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 45% Yeah...I can’t see her happening this time, I’ll get flack for saying this but she really would’ve been in K.Rool’s trailer if she was playable, I know people like to throw the Dark Samus argument but the thing is, DS is a completely separate enemy to Samus and is unrelated to Ridley. (Unless she is, I’m not a huge Metroid fan...) Dixie fought K.Rool and is enemies with him as well but everything about K.Rool’s trailer emphasized that it was only between him vs Donkey & Diddy, and it seems to not only hurt her chances but any other DK candidate, that final punch shot seemed to solidified that the current DK roster line-up was finished for this installment, having a solo Dixie trailer would feel awkward after that epic confrontation, she would’ve been revealed first. As for Echoes? I doubt we’re getting that much as people expect and I want her to be unique/semi anyway but Sakurai might focus on other series for the rest of the newcomers.

Want: 50/50 She’s definitely a common want of mine when it comes to general Smash candidates but after K.Rool’s inclusion, I’ll be honest when I say I seem to just be satisfied with him only. She’s not much of a heavy hitter despite her decent support, I’d save her for Smash 6 or possibly DLC. Whichever happens imo.

Shantae
Chances: 15% Her chances are grossly overestimated imo, people grasp at straws when it comes to the “Ultimate Slumber Party” schtick but those “hints” mean nothing if you ask me, if the possibly she does happen, I can bet it’ll be a massive coincidence. Another supporting argument is that WayForward has been “quiet” about Smash implying they’re in a non-disclosure agreement, by that logic any game company who doesn’t talk about Smash must be in a NDA as well. The biggest detractor against her is that Shovel Knight of all people is an AT, I know it seems unfair to detract someone based on another’s merit but if you look at this way, it’s less the fact that SK isn’t playable but that any sort of Indie content such as trophies, music or even mere stickers could be seen as an absolute honor to be in a massive AAA title like Smash, her being playable would be way too much for one independent development team, so I expect an AT or nothing for her.

Want: 10% Nah, I played Half Genie but I wouldn’t want her to take priority over so many mainstream AAA characters who still have yet to be included that I’d much rather see, having an Indie playable would be too early if you ask me.

Fun fact: Dark Samus brainwashed Ridley and the Space Pirates as well as hooked them onto Phazon, turning them into hopeless addicts. They're her muscle in Metroid Prime 3.

 

[cybersai]

Why do people keep on saying Dixie would have been in K. Rool's trailer? That would have taken too much focus away from K. Rool (or Dixie would have been overshadowed), and it makes sense she wouldn't be in it.

 

[Aeon Lupin]

Why do people keep on saying Dixie would have been in K. Rool's trailer? That would have taken too much focus away from K. Rool (or Dixie would have been overshadowed), and it makes sense she wouldn't be in it.

Exactly. Bowser Jr and Rosalina are from the same series, but they didn't occupy the same trailer, so why should Dixie and K. Rool?