Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

xzx · Oct 4, 2020

My predictions are:

Ryu Hayabusa, Doomguy, Geno and Tingle

DrifloonEmpire · Oct 4, 2020

Predictions For What's Left:

Crash Bandicoot: Predicting him to be the Banjo of this pass, the beloved fan favorite platformer mascot! With It's About Time coming to the Switch (albeit at a later date), Crash basically has it all for Smash chances. Iconic both in the past and modernly, in the middle of a huge comeback, and popularity on both sides of the ocean. Plus with Steve as our most recent reveal, it shows that Nintendo wants to roll big with some of these slots. And considering Nintendo has worked with Activision before with Skylanders, this is very much a possibility!

Dragonborn: Another heavy hitter, if Nintendo went for Minecraft then no doubt they went for Skyrim. The Elder Scrolls as a franchise has the iconic pedigree, and is Bethesda's flagship and home grown franchise. Skyrim alone is the 19th best selling game of all time, got a perfect score on Famitsu (the very first Western game to do so) and most importantly, there is a good relationship between Nintendo and Bethesda. Vault Boy's Mii is already in the game and Skyrim for Switch has Zelda content, clearly showing that Todd and his buddies at Bethesda Game Studios love Nintendo! Another point in Dragonborn's favor is the fact that Steve was five years in the making. Pete Hines answered a question about Bethesda in Smash talks with his iconic "Oh yeah" back in 2018, and at this point Dragonborn was the frontrunner for Bethesda back then and had the honor of being a major attraction in the Switch's reveal trailer. Dragonborn's negotiations very well could've started back then, and notably this was before 2019's Doom-a-palooza. And with the implication from Suda51 and Travis' costume that the Mii costumes are decided MUCH Iater than the fighters in the pass, Vault Boy shows that negotiations with Bethesda Game Studios are still going strong!

Phoenix Wright: Expecting him to be the Terry of this pass, known worldwide but with most of his popularity more concentrated in the west. Phoenix Wright has been almost exclusively on Nintendo systems his entire life and has been requested for a long time. People often cite competition with Dante, but just because you're getting a Switch port doesn't mean you're getting a character slot. Travis Touchdown proved this, and it could very well happen to Dante as well. Plus there's the current pattern that the remaining Smash 4 3rd party costumes will all return with the remaining four fighters. This would eliminate Monster Hunter, which is Phoenix's other big competition.

Rex: Basically a shoe-in at this point, I'd be shocked if he didn't make it in this pass. Heavily requested, Sakurai loves him, first party, and we got ARMS, so it's only a matter of time. Rex has basically got a complete pedigree that allows him to have what is currently the best chances possible. Expecting him to be the grand finale final pass character that people will consider underwhelming.

Nominations:
Don-chan x20

Mr. MR · Oct 4, 2020

I woke up one Saturday to the muzzle of a gun pressed on my forehead. The assailant wore a ski mask with a blue beanie on his head with a ginger piece of wood shaving coming out from underneath it. He spoke with a cold voice, "Name the next four fighter pass characters." I panicked and tried to explain that I did not know but he was having none of it and pressed the gun deeper into my skin. I named four names...

Ok, I just wanted a little drama/fun and meant no disrespect to Geno fans even if I'm a little harsh on the guy. It's just so easy to identify a Geno fan that it was the first thing that came to mind when trying to write a motive into a description. On to the actual post...

1. Monster Hunter

Long Nintendo History
Currently good relations with Nintendo
Super popular in Japan
On the verge of becoming mainstream in the West
Shill Factor (Rise)
Great fit for Smash
Already has content in Smash

This is the one I have most confidence in. Monster Hunter has a very long history with Nintendo to the point it's even expected to be on Nintendo systems. So... history is one thing but what about the present? At the current time Nintendo has two exclusives coming its way and this was all announced during a MONSTER HUNTER DIRECT! That's right! A direct specialized to a series that wasn't even a Nintendo series. I think this is proof enough that Nintendo treats this third party series almost like a 2nd party series. This series is also a monster of a games series in Japan and has a many dedicated fans in the west. In fact I'm confident that this series has the potential to be just as big in the West and just needs a little push to get it going. From where Monster Hunter sits now, getting a character in Smash is exactly what it needs to become mainstream. What I can tell so far from the gameplay and from what I played in World, I'm confident that MH Rise is going to be a really good game. Good enough that I believe Capcom will have the confidence to use it to solidify their place in the Western market. Lastly, this game already has content in Smash. My personal theory is that since Ridley was upgraded from boss to playable character, the spot for a dragon boss was open. With the thematic classic mode introduced in this game, Sakurai actually needed a dragon boss to complete the themes (like with Marth for instance). Since Capcom has a lot of stuff in Ultimate already it makes sense that Sakurai would add such an iconic dragon as Rathalos. I think it's reasonable to think that Sakurai has considered a playable Hunter and was waiting on Capcom to decide the right time. And what better time than with Rise!

One more thing... Monster Hunter is getting a movie. No, don't you dare watch it. Don't even look at it. From what I can tell it's a monstrosity. I'm only saying this as proof to the theory that Capcom really wants to push this franchise in the West.

2. Ezio

A strong legacy
A strong franchise
Ubisoft has good Nintendo relations
Ubisoft's flagship franchise
Face of a flagship franchise
Altair Mii Costume?

I talked a lot about Ezio before now and why he has a good chance so I'll keep this short. With all the Ubisoft Smash representation already in the last two games, they are bound to get a playable character. At this point it's a fight between Ezio and Rayman. Ezio is the most popular, the most recognized, and essentially the face of Ubisoft's flagship franchise. Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot and probably scored decently in the Smash ballot. What I think puts Ezio ahead is how much stronger and iconic Assassin's Creed as a series compared to Rayman. Also, that Altair mii costume being labeled as a crossover with Altair in the US is still very sus.

3. Lu Bu

Koei Tecmo is the closest third party company to Nintendo
Three Musou crossover games with Nintendo
KT worked on other Nintendo games
The king (warlord?) of Musou
His personality fits the type of game
Best choice for a DLC villain
Very well known

If you pointed a gun to my head I would still probably say Lu Bu has a better chance than Ryu Hayabusa. Everyone here already talked about Koei Tecmo and Nintendo's relationship so I'll just add that the three games Koei Tecmo and Nintendo crossovered with are all Musou games. Musou is a game franchise/genre that had many other crossovers like Gundam, Fist of the North Star, One Piece, Persona, and a few more. It's obvious that Musou games are successful so what better fighter pass character than one who represents this genre of games. Lu Bu is known as the mightiest warrior and the impression he leaves on you when playing any Dynasty Warriors game proves it. He's the most popular Dynasty Warriors character and KT likes giving him special treatment (such as what if scenarios). On top of all this, I feel like his drive to seek a challenge and prove he's the mightiest warrior fits well in a crossover fighting game. Lastly, because this character was based off of a historical person and novel character, Lu Bu has inspired many more works and finds himself referenced or thrown into many different kinds of media where you least expect it, making him one of the more well known characters of the Three Kingdoms period of Chinese history. While I'm talking about the real Lu Bu, I believe that Dynasty Warriors is only inspired by real life events and the characters that are in it are video game characters first. If Sakurai wanted to add Lu Bu from Dynasty Warriors into Smash, I don't think he will stop just because he's inspired by a real life legend.

4. Sora
Ok, I don't have a list for this guy but if any character could finish the fighter pass and make huge waves I think it has to be Sora. He has the popularity. He has the iconic factor. He has the legacy. The one thing holding him back is Disney but that also happens to be why I think he's a character that has the possibility of matching Steve level of talk. I believe in the old adage "save the best for last", so why did they pull out Steve, the killer of twitter, right out in the beginning? What could possibly be last? Any crossover with Disney would be huge. I'm not even sure if Sora could get in but in the panicked moments getting a gun pressed against my noggin I would expect Nintendo to be able to pull a miracle out of its mouse eared hat and somehow make it work with Disney. I mean think of a Disney themed stage! Something that big has to end the pass... and this is also how my brain gets me killed...

Honorables: Arle + Tetris, Rex, Impa

One final point on Arle + Tetris. I think this might be one of the only ways to get Tetris as a playable character. The series has a long history with Nintendo and is partly responsible for the success of the GameBoy. Very few game series are as widely known as the Russian block puzzler. The problem is Tetris has no characters outside of Puyo Puyo crossovers. The only thing keeping me from placing it up there was how awkward it would be to work a crossover title of two different companies into one Smash character. It's possible but very awkward.

Noms: All in (including any bonus ones) on Impa

Cutie Gwen · Oct 4, 2020

TCT~Phantom said:
Sorry Calamitas Calamitas and Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen

It's ok we're all allowed bad opinions, for example, I don't like Hollow Knight.

In more serious matters, I can only see 2 characters happening for sure.

SMT character: We just rated this so I'm kinda forced to repeat myself, though I don't think copy pasting everything from that will exactly help, though people have had concern about it now because Travis, who also had a Nintendo backed upcoming game, got Mii'd yesterday. I don't think this means SMT has the same situation, while Travis was more demanded from what I saw, SMT is a bigger franchise, has 2 upcoming games and there's a lot more you could do with an SMT character than Travis as he's great, but would need more effort than an SMT character to think of a unique moveset. It's just a matter of if Nintendo wanted the most iconic protag or if they wanted to cross-promote SMTV, which should be out when the pass still has 3 unrevealed characters.

Dante. Aight so Dante's in a VERY unique position, ever since around mid to late 2018, wheb the DMCV leaker got copied, Dante's Smash demand ****ing skyrocketed, likely as people hadn't considered Dante until then and thought "Oh **** Dante WOULD be very cool". Dante's Smash popularity was large enough to have Itsuno talk about it and seemingly influenced the franchise, bringing the games over to Nintendo for the first time, that's already very surprising, but then there's the matter of DMC3, the pinnacle of the series and what really shaped the future of the franchise, suddenly getting a definitive edition EXCLUSIVELY to the Switch, which is VERY surprising as since the ps2, DMC3's been on every console outside of Nintendo's. It makes no goddamn sense to me to give the Switch a new version of the fanfavourite game. To add on to this, Dante's Smash popularity is genuine, people hyped themselves up for Dante back in January but yesterday, there were a lot of jokes about a potential Dante Mii, which wouldn't happen if Dante was just a flavour of the month character imo. The only thing we don't know is when the second pass was greenlit and no, Minecraft taking 5 years of negotiations doesn't mean it was greenlit in 2015. Dante's popularity started in 2018 with deals for the Switch port of the first game having to be made in 2018 too as porting takes time contrary to what a lot of Nintendo diehards on twitter seem to think and came out in June 2019. as the second pass wasn't planned at first, it's very plausible that when deciding the second pass' content, Nintendo said "Hey Sakurai, we're getting the DMC trilogy including a definitive edition of 3, we'd like you to add Dante".

TLDR: If the second pass was greenlit after the first pass was announced then Dante has a damn good shot.

Miriam x15

fogbadge · Oct 4, 2020

lets see i predict, disappointment, disappointment, disappointment and disappointment

MasterOfKnees · Oct 4, 2020

FP8-11 Predictions:

Ryu Hayabusa - Not a whole lot left to say that others haven't, he was already very likely, and the whole Steve leak situation could lend credence to why we heard so much about him from otherwise decent sources, only for him to not show up yet. He could still have been leakbait, but with how close Koei Tecmo is with Nintendo, a Steve situation doesn't seem implausible at all.

Dante - Seems like a lot of people have started favoring Monster Hunter as their chosen Capcom rep due to the series' prominence in the recent Partner Showcase, but I'm sticking with Dante. The timing of when Dante started being a hot topic in Smash discussions is extremely beneficial to his chances for this pass, his popularity would have been at its peak around the time they were deciding on characters. Furthermore, with such a distinct design, strong surface level personality and action-packed fighting style, he's the Capcom character who I think will have the easiest and most effective transition into Smash. He would also be a character that'd be hype to both Smash fans as well as the wider gaming community, and I'm certain we'll get one more character like that.

Geno - The situation remains the same for Geno as always, there are a lot of smaller things in his favor that just stack up to making him quite likely. I can't say I'm absolutely certain he'll be in, but I'm sure we're getting another Square rep, and at this point I find Geno to be the likeliest of the bunch.

Rex - Not a character I'm happy to put on here at all, but I find it hard to look past him. This second fighters pass has already been an opportunity to give some characters a second chance, with ARMS initially being overlooked for the same reason as Rex, and Steve having been negotiated since forever, and Rex is a character we know would have been in if the circumstances had initially been more beneficial to him. Some would say that Xenoblade has moved on from XB2, but it's still a game that's on the shelves, and will continue to be so for as long as the Switch lives, so I don't think it'll ever be too late for him. Nintendo's heavy push for the franchise also can't be ignored, they really want Xenoblade to be one of their big IPs, and with Sakurai initially having wanted him in too, it's hard not to imagine the stars lining up for him. I also think he'll likely be the last character announced, ending with a first party character in the first pass was probably intentional in order to fulfill their 3rd party obligations first, and I think after Min Min, who was likely shoved to the front of the current pass in order to make the wait in between passes as short as possible since she required no negotiations, we'll probably see a wave of 3rd parties again, before we end on a Nintendo character. I would dread that scenario, but I find it quite likely.

Other points:

Western characters - I'm skeptical we're going to get another one of these after Steve. The language barrier is a definite concern, and while it obviously doesn't make western characters impossible, it does mean that we're very unlikely to get many of them. I do think there's a possibility we could get one more western character, in which case Crash would be the most likely imo, but I'm not at all confident in that. There's a good chance that Steve is all we're getting on this front.

Gen 8 Pokémon - An honorable mention you could slot in over almost everyone in my predictions, but the Spirit Event we got does leave me doubting their chances due to it happening after the second pass had been announced. Still, it would be foolish to ever sleep on Pokémon, there's always the chance that the Spirit Event happened so they could cover their tracks, if the Spirit Event hadn't happened then absolutely everyone would already know that a Pokémon was coming, especially after the Three Houses situation. I don't want a Pokémon to happen, but it's still very likely.

I'm going to be wrong - My predictions are quite safe and predictable, and inevitably that's never quite how things pan out. I'm not going to go out on a limb to predict some obscure character though, as the chances of me hitting a bullseye there is even smaller than just going with safe picks. As always, I'm sure absolutely every one of us is going to be wrong.

WeirdChillFever · Oct 4, 2020

“Brash the Bear, what the eff are you doing here?” I utter, waking up groggy from my hype-infested sleep of the night. I’m not even surprised Brash the Bear is here. He is everywhere. The omens have been casted before, now it was time they were reaped.
Brash the Bear looked at his watch, shining ethereally and yet an object as physical as my admiration for the jock ursine. The watch defied laws of space but not those of time, for it was the guardian of time itself.

And time it was.

“Fighters Pass 2” The bear’s low voice made me tremble. “Such a mystery, is it not? I don’t like mysteries. But you. You seem to have a...grasp on it.” his tone dipped like the valleys he trained in, his claw opening and closing once the word grasp sizzled through my humble bedroom.

I swallowed.

”I think I do.”

Brash smiled.

“Then you better tell me my next destination.“ A click froze the room after Brash’s presence had heated it up before.

(I better get extra noms for this)

Geno
You’ve heard the evidence, you’ve hated the evidence and half of it is probably leaading to nothing. Still, we’ve had an odd amount of “Genoposting” in July so he’s the most overt of the characters possibly rumoured. Mii Costume theory also declares him likely and unlike Capcom and Namco, the Geno and Chocobo costume or other Square costumes have no precedence of being dropped in with other waves like the Mega Man and Heihachi/Gil costumes have been, which imo makes Geno stand out from that crowd too. Otherwise, another Square character is coming and Geno gets ceremoniously dumped as a Mii Costume again but I think the reverse is more likely considering Geno‘s popularity being quite specifically for being a Smash fighter.

I don’t think Mario Year is too big a reason for him. Geno’s quite tucked away in Mario canon, so I doubt his playability depends on him rushing in before the tourney.

Lu Bu/Ryu Hayabusa
This is a double-edged prediction, but they‘re two sides of the same coin so hear me out.

I don’t care for Koei‘s relationship with Nintendo for this, this isn’t about a company of all things getting an ice cream for being a good lad and the resurgence of Vergibby isn’t a big factor in this either. This is because I’m not here for “a Koei Tecmo rep” I’m here for the individual characters. What we’ve seen from Steve and Min Min is a deep-going adaptation of their home game’s mechanics to Smash, and imomthe best game to do this with next is Dynasty Warriors and its control scheme. Steve has like three Neutral Specials? Doesn’t matter: Lu Bu has 6 (if I recall the DW combat system correctly) depending on how many normal moves you’ve performed before tapping it. These specials might range from...well..whatever they range from in Dynasty Warriors.I don’t know, I’ve only played Hyrule Warriors.

Lu Bu is the pick for when you want uniqueness, but then I heard Hayabusa is kind of the go-to for this kind of crossover stuff so I guess that’s what they’ll do.

Either way, insert Lloyd costume here.

Dante
Yeah, this one’s less of a hot take. Rumoured, popular, right-place-right-time combination of the two. Monster Hunter could return with a vengeance with its weird mish-mash and incomplete content in base-game, but I doubt that that would be because of the recency factor. Between ARMS and Steve’s long negotiation, this is a possible scenario. Still, once the Mii Costumes return, that’s a decent splash of content to return with and iirc the MH devs consider the monsters the main character or don’t love the idea of The Hunter in a fighter so in that sense the base game content could be like the Bomberman AT holding his franchise high and getting a costume later rather than it being a remnant of negotiations long-lost that could come back with a vengeance. In that respect, Dante is the Capcom frontrunner and my pick for this slot.

Lloyd costume could go here too I guess.

First Party We Don’t Know
Yes, this is a cop-out, but hear me out. This is not vague at all: I’m predicting we haven‘t seen this character‘s breakout game yet. This is the shill character, but by not predicting anything, I’m predicting a lot: I’m ruling out Gen 8 Pokémon, Rex doesn’t fall under this, even Impa’s AoC design has been seen. The moveset would be based on this game too, so Dixie Kong would count if like, she has the Mango Cannon from DKCR3: It’s Been A Kong, Kong Time.

What does this entail? New designs (So AoC Impa would’ve been fair game if that game was revealed after this post) or new characters of something that would’ve been at this year E3 or a Fall Direct, most likely, releasing in Spring/Summer 2021 and making its Smash debut in November. Something like Origami King (Except not Origami King specifically since that’s already out.)
Like most of the previous shill picks, this wouldn’t be a new series but a new character in an established series. Now, that narrows it down, doesn’t it?

I think this puts me on 30 noms, so I’m putting em all on Concept: Zelda Newcomer

Neosonic97 · Oct 4, 2020

Here come my predictions, though I'm not as well-versed, so take mine with a grain of salt.

Crash Bandicoot
The no-brainer. Really, I'm surprised the orange marsupial hasn't even been announced yet. As DrifloonEmpire so eloquently put it, he's probably going to be the Banjo of this Pass. Crash is probably the character I'm most certain on, for reasons that should probably be self-evident.

Rex (& probably Pyra too)
Before, I would have said he probably missed his chance (as Sakurai outright stated at first), but then Min Min happened. That's all that really needs saying on the matter.

Dante
Okay, I admit, I'm just jumping on the bandwagon here and couldn't think of anybody else.

The Hot Take: Reimu Hakurei
Can you see my bias seeping through, here? Of course I'm going to say my most wanted if they actually have a chance. I think Blankiturayman put it best: It's got a long history spanning nearly 25 years (that makes it one of, if not THE oldest indie series), lots of fan content, has actually seeped into Eastern culture (not just Japan, but also China) in a big way, ZUN should be easy to negotiate with (he wants Touhou representation in Smash, and is already pretty lax on copyright), and so on. The big one, though, is that while I personally don't classify Steve as Indie nowadays, he WAS one at one point, which kinda removes the stupid 'if Sans couldn't do it...' argument that people have previously used against Indies, meaning Reimu's chances just got a little bit better.

Megadoomer · Oct 4, 2020

My predictions, in no particular order:

-Geno: roughly two decades of consistent fan demand, coupled with Square-Enix being more involved in Smash Ultimate (more than two songs; several spirit events), both of their flagship franchises (Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest) being in Smash, and Min Min's inclusion (showing that being a spirit isn't a barrier to being DLC) seem to make his chances higher than ever. Plus, the developers seem to have gone out of their way to fulfil long-time fan requests (bringing back every veteran, adding Ridley, etc.).

-Ryu Hayabusa: Koei-Tecmo seems like the only big Japanese game developer that hasn't gotten a playable character in Smash yet. Ninja Gaiden definitely has the history behind it, Koei-Tecmo's close enough with Nintendo to work on a main Fire Emblem game as well as multiple Zelda spin-offs (including one that's presumably canon with Age of Calamity), and Ninja Gaiden seems a lot like Castlevania where the developers would have a lot of material to reference both the classic and modern games (and would likely jump at the chance to do so, especially where the composers are concerned).

-Dante: a few things make Dante stand out in my eyes - Itsuno's comment about how Devil May Cry would have to be on a Nintendo platform before Dante could get into Smash (which was followed up by DMC1 being announced for the Switch about two months later - it seems like they'd be working on it at that time), Kamiya's comments about Dante in Smash (he put up a poll about which of his characters people would want to see in Smash, which Dante won by my understanding - the poll's since been deleted - and he made a comment about seeing his characters in Smash that seems to be worded in an unusual way, to say the least), and Devil May Cry 3 getting a special version with a bunch of improvements that's inexplicably exclusive to the Switch. Monster Hunter seems plausible, but I feel like Dante's chances are better.

-a Nintendo character: I don't think the rest of the Fighters Pass will be third party. If I had to pick one, I'd say Bandanna Waddle Dee (he seems fairly popular regardless of what region you're talking about), but Impa could also be likely, particularly with Zelda's 35th anniversary coming up next year. Rex or Elma seem plausible, given that Xenoblade's become a lot more prominent since Shulk was added. (I haven't played the Torna DLC, so I don't know who would work from that)

Honourable mentions go to Crash Bandicoot and Doomguy. Both of them have the history, but I'm not sure how much of a connection Nintendo has to Activision/Bethesda, assuming that Microsoft's buy-out of the latter happened after the DLC characters were negotiated for. Plus, I felt like Doomguy is more wishful thinking on my part, all things considered; I'd love to see him included, but there's plenty pointing towards the idea that he's not.

So_many_mails · Oct 4, 2020

chocolatejr9 said:
Welp, time to make a guess and hope for the best. Bare in mind, I'm doing this under the assumption that it'll be split evenly between first and third parties.

Rex - What can I say that hasn't been said at this point? He's EASILY the most likely first-party. Sakurai considered including him in the base game, and now he has his chance. Before anybody mentions it, I know he said "Xenoblade Chronicles 2" in general. However, if we were getting any XC2 character, it HAS to be Rex, whether people like it or not.

Euden - Yes, I'm still going on about this. Dragalia Lost is Nintendo's first original IP on mobile. Despite that, it has ZERO content in Smash. That wouldn't be TOO noticeable, but we just passed the game's 2nd Anniversary. At this point, it's pretty glaring, in my opinion.

Level-5 rep - This one is a bit of an odd one, not gonna lie. Level-5 has more than earned a spot in the Smash roster. However, nothing seems to have come of it. It's definetly not because of lack of options, given they own Professor Layton and Yo-kai Watch. Really, this one feels like a "wait and see" situation.

Disgaea rep - And here's the random left field pick. It seems that Nintendo might be interested in promoting the series here in the West. Disgaea 6 was announced in the last Partner Showcase, and Disgaea 5 had some kind of free trial period similar to Nintendo's first party titles. This could end up being the Terry of this pass, minus the 50 songs, of course. However, like Level-5, this seems to be a "wait and see" situation.

On an additional note, I'm pretty certain that at least Geno's Mii costume is coming back. Though admittedly, this is more of a gut feeling on my part...

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x20

Strongly agree on the Level-5 rep. With the rumours that Nintendo are the ones suggesting the characters this time, I can see them wanting to do a 'favour' almost for one of the most loyal Third Party developers.

Thing is, I think if that is the case, it's unlikely to be Layton, considering he hasn't got a new game to plug. I could definitely see Jibanyan making it in instead.

TCT~Phantom · Oct 4, 2020

Mr. MR said:
I woke up one Saturday to the muzzle of a gun pressed on my forehead. The assailant wore a ski mask with a blue beanie on his head with a ginger piece of wood shaving coming out from underneath it. He spoke with a cold voice, "Name the next four fighter pass characters." I panicked and tried to explain that I did not know but he was having none of it and pressed the gun deeper into my skin. I named four names...

Ok, I just wanted a little drama/fun and meant no disrespect to Geno fans even if I'm a little harsh on the guy. It's just so easy to identify a Geno fan that it was the first thing that came to mind when trying to write a motive into a description. On to the actual post...

1. Monster Hunter

Long Nintendo History

Currently good relations with Nintendo

Super popular in Japan

On the verge of becoming mainstream in the West

Shill Factor (Rise)

Great fit for Smash

Already has content in Smash

This is the one I have most confidence in. Monster Hunter has a very long history with Nintendo to the point it's even expected to be on Nintendo systems. So... history is one thing but what about the present? At the current time Nintendo has two exclusives coming its way and this was all announced during a MONSTER HUNTER DIRECT! That's right! A direct specialized to a series that wasn't even a Nintendo series. I think this is proof enough that Nintendo treats this third party series almost like a 2nd party series. This series is also a monster of a games series in Japan and has a many dedicated fans in the west. In fact I'm confident that this series has the potential to be just as big in the West and just needs a little push to get it going. From where Monster Hunter sits now, getting a character in Smash is exactly what it needs to become mainstream. What I can tell so far from the gameplay and from what I played in World, I'm confident that MH Rise is going to be a really good game. Good enough that I believe Capcom will have the confidence to use it to solidify their place in the Western market. Lastly, this game already has content in Smash. My personal theory is that since Ridley was upgraded from boss to playable character, the spot for a dragon boss was open. With the thematic classic mode introduced in this game, Sakurai actually needed a dragon boss to complete the themes (like with Marth for instance). Since Capcom has a lot of stuff in Ultimate already it makes sense that Sakurai would add such an iconic dragon as Rathalos. I think it's reasonable to think that Sakurai has considered a playable Hunter and was waiting on Capcom to decide the right time. And what better time than with Rise!

One more thing... Monster Hunter is getting a movie. No, don't you dare watch it. Don't even look at it. From what I can tell it's a monstrosity. I'm only saying this as proof to the theory that Capcom really wants to push this franchise in the West.

2. Ezio

A strong legacy

A strong franchise

Ubisoft has good Nintendo relations

Ubisoft's flagship franchise

Face of a flagship franchise

Altair Mii Costume?

I talked a lot about Ezio before now and why he has a good chance so I'll keep this short. With all the Ubisoft Smash representation already in the last two games, they are bound to get a playable character. At this point it's a fight between Ezio and Rayman. Ezio is the most popular, the most recognized, and essentially the face of Ubisoft's flagship franchise. Rayman is Ubisoft's mascot and probably scored decently in the Smash ballot. What I think puts Ezio ahead is how much stronger and iconic Assassin's Creed as a series compared to Rayman. Also, that Altair mii costume being labeled as a crossover with Altair in the US is still very sus.

3. Lu Bu

Koei Tecmo is the closest third party company to Nintendo

Three Musou crossover games with Nintendo

KT worked on other Nintendo games

The king (warlord?) of Musou

His personality fits the type of game

Best choice for a DLC villain

Very well known

If you pointed a gun to my head I would still probably say Lu Bu has a better chance than Ryu Hayabusa. Everyone here already talked about Koei Tecmo and Nintendo's relationship so I'll just add that the three games Koei Tecmo and Nintendo crossovered with are all Musou games. Musou is a game franchise/genre that had many other crossovers like Gundam, Fist of the North Star, One Piece, Persona, and a few more. It's obvious that Musou games are successful so what better fighter pass character than one who represents this genre of games. Lu Bu is known as the mightiest warrior and the impression he leaves on you when playing any Dynasty Warriors game proves it. He's the most popular Dynasty Warriors character and KT likes giving him special treatment (such as what if scenarios). On top of all this, I feel like his drive to seek a challenge and prove he's the mightiest warrior fits well in a crossover fighting game. Lastly, because this character was based off of a historical person and novel character, Lu Bu has inspired many more works and finds himself referenced or thrown into many different kinds of media where you least expect it, making him one of the more well known characters of the Three Kingdoms period of Chinese history. While I'm talking about the real Lu Bu, I believe that Dynasty Warriors is only inspired by real life events and the characters that are in it are video game characters first. If Sakurai wanted to add Lu Bu from Dynasty Warriors into Smash, I don't think he will stop just because he's inspired by a real life legend.

4. Sora
Ok, I don't have a list for this guy but if any character could finish the fighter pass and make huge waves I think it has to be Sora. He has the popularity. He has the iconic factor. He has the legacy. The one thing holding him back is Disney but that also happens to be why I think he's a character that has the possibility of matching Steve level of talk. I believe in the old adage "save the best for last", so why did they pull out Steve, the killer of twitter, right out in the beginning? What could possibly be last? Any crossover with Disney would be huge. I'm not even sure if Sora could get in but in the panicked moments getting a gun pressed against my noggin I would expect Nintendo to be able to pull a miracle out of its mouse eared hat and somehow make it work with Disney. I mean think of a Disney themed stage! Something that big has to end the pass... and this is also how my brain gets me killed...

Honorables: Arle + Tetris, Rex, Impa

One final point on Arle + Tetris. I think this might be one of the only ways to get Tetris as a playable character. The series has a long history with Nintendo and is partly responsible for the success of the GameBoy. Very few game series are as widely known as the Russian block puzzler. The problem is Tetris has no characters outside of Puyo Puyo crossovers. The only thing keeping me from placing it up there was how awkward it would be to work a crossover title of two different companies into one Smash character. It's possible but very awkward.

Noms: Impa 20x

WeirdChillFever said:
“Brash the Bear, what the eff are you doing here?” I utter, waking up groggy from my hype-infested sleep of the night. I’m not even surprised Brash the Bear is here. He is everywhere. The omens have been casted before, now it was time they were reaped.
Brash the Bear looked at his watch, shining ethereally and yet an object as physical as my admiration for the jock ursine. The watch defied laws of space but not those of time, for it was the guardian of time itself.

And time it was.

“Fighters Pass 2” The bear’s low voice made me tremble. “Such a mystery, is it not? I don’t like mysteries. But you. You seem to have a...grasp on it.” his tone dipped like the valleys he trained in, his claw opening and closing once the word grasp sizzled through my humble bedroom.

I swallowed.

”I think I do.”

Brash smiled.

“Then you better tell me my next destination.“ A click froze the room after Brash’s presence had heated it up before.

(I better get extra noms for this)

Geno
You’ve heard the evidence, you’ve hated the evidence and half of it is probably leaading to nothing. Still, we’ve had an odd amount of “Genoposting” in July so he’s the most overt of the characters possibly rumoured. Mii Costume theory also declares him likely and unlike Capcom and Namco, the Geno and Chocobo costume or other Square costumes have no precedence of being dropped in with other waves like the Mega Man and Heihachi/Gil costumes have been, which imo makes Geno stand out from that crowd too. Otherwise, another Square character is coming and Geno gets ceremoniously dumped as a Mii Costume again but I think the reverse is more likely considering Geno‘s popularity being quite specifically for being a Smash fighter.

I don’t think Mario Year is too big a reason for him. Geno’s quite tucked away in Mario canon, so I doubt his playability depends on him rushing in before the tourney.

Lu Bu/Ryu Hayabusa
This is a double-edged prediction, but they‘re two sides of the same coin so hear me out.

I don’t care for Koei‘s relationship with Nintendo for this, this isn’t about a company of all things getting an ice cream for being a good lad and the resurgence of Vergibby isn’t a big factor in this either. This is because I’m not here for “a Koei Tecmo rep” I’m here for the individual characters. What we’ve seen from Steve and Min Min is a deep-going adaptation of their home game’s mechanics to Smash, and imomthe best game to do this with next is Dynasty Warriors and its control scheme. Steve has like three Neutral Specials? Doesn’t matter: Lu Bu has 6 (if I recall the DW combat system correctly) depending on how many normal moves you’ve performed before tapping it. These specials might range from...well..whatever they range from in Dynasty Warriors.I don’t know, I’ve only played Hyrule Warriors.

Lu Bu is the pick for when you want uniqueness, but then I heard Hayabusa is kind of the go-to for this kind of crossover stuff so I guess that’s what they’ll do.

Either way, insert Lloyd costume here.

Dante
Yeah, this one’s less of a hot take. Rumoured, popular, right-place-right-time combination of the two. Monster Hunter could return with a vengeance with its weird mish-mash and incomplete content in base-game, but I doubt that that would be because of the recency factor. Between ARMS and Steve’s long negotiation, this is a possible scenario. Still, once the Mii Costumes return, that’s a decent splash of content to return with and iirc the MH devs consider the monsters the main character or don’t love the idea of The Hunter in a fighter so in that sense the base game content could be like the Bomberman AT holding his franchise high and getting a costume later rather than it being a remnant of negotiations long-lost that could come back with a vengeance. In that respect, Dante is the Capcom frontrunner and my pick for this slot.

Lloyd costume could go here too I guess.

First Party We Don’t Know
Yes, this is a cop-out, but hear me out. This is not vague at all: I’m predicting we haven‘t seen this character‘s breakout game yet. This is the shill character, but by not predicting anything, I’m predicting a lot: I’m ruling out Gen 8 Pokémon, Rex doesn’t fall under this, even Impa’s AoC design has been seen. The moveset would be based on this game too, so Dixie Kong would count if like, she has the Mango Cannon from DKCR3: It’s Been A Kong, Kong Time.

What does this entail? New designs (So AoC Impa would’ve been fair game if that game was revealed after this post) or new characters of something that would’ve been at this year E3 or a Fall Direct, most likely, releasing in Spring/Summer 2021 and making its Smash debut in November. Something like Origami King (Except not Origami King specifically since that’s already out.)
Like most of the previous shill picks, this wouldn’t be a new series but a new character in an established series. Now, that narrows it down, doesn’t it?

I think this puts me on 30 noms, so I’m putting em all on Concept: Zelda Newcomer

These posts did make me laugh, so I will give you both extra noms ^_^.

fogbadge · Oct 4, 2020

So_many_mails said:
Strongly agree on the Level-5 rep. With the rumours that Nintendo are the ones suggesting the characters this time, I can see them wanting to do a 'favour' almost for one of the most loyal Third Party developers.

Thing is, I think if that is the case, it's unlikely to be Layton, considering he hasn't got a new game to plug. I could definitely see Jibanyan making it in instead.

there not rumours it’s what sakurai told

Lyncario · Oct 4, 2020

My predictions for the rest of the fighter pass, that will probably end up being wrong anyway, and also unordered

Dante
The man, the legend, the feautured himself, Dante from Devil May Cry, the character I see as the most likely to get into the second pass right now. First of all, yes, the "Hideaki Itsuno tell us to ask for Devil May Cry on Switch" to "Devil May Cry 1 port to the Switch anounced the next month" is part of why I see Dante as likely, though that's far from the only reason I have. One thing that I think Dante has really going for him is the sheer hype that DMC5 got, and made Dante an icon once again, and so he would be like Joker in the way that he's from an hot new game, while lso still having the big legacy of his series and action games behind him. Also he's a Capcom rep, a company close to Nintendo and who already got additionnal content in Ultimate after base game, even if not as a fighter (the RE spirits). Monster Hunter could be taken over Dante, however, I think that the massive fan requests that Dante got during fighter pass 1 along with DMC 1-3 now being on Switch make so that he really has good chances of being one of the 4 last fighters in Smash Ultimate.

Ryu Hayabusa
Koei's Tecmo ninja who debuted long ago back in the arcades before meeting massive sucess on the NES, and who has been mainly associated with Nintendo ever since, even after the reboot of his original trilogy being on the Xbox and Xbox 360. Ryu Hayabusa has been seen as a frnot runner in Smash speculation for a while because of how Koei Tecmo is the biggest 3rd party Japanese developers that still has no character in Ultimate, and this despite how close Koei Tecmo and nintendo are, to the point of KT not only working on musou spin-offs of Zelda, not only once but now twice with Age of Calamity, and also Fire Emblem Warriors, while also being a massive help to Inteligent System for Fire Emblem 3 Houses, one of Nintendo's most positively recepted game of 2019 and arguably of the entire Switch library, so it doesn't come as outlandish to say that Nintendo holds Koei Tecmo in quite the high regards. And which of their character could be chosen as their fighter in Smash? Why, who other than Ryu Hayabusa, the most classical ninja of gaming, who allowed KT to define themselves as a big deal, and who still has very regular apearances in Dead or Alive despite how his series doesn't currently get new games. One of the most legacy" legacy pick possible.

Adol Christin
The protagonist of the Ys series, Nihon Falcom's most known series ever since 1987, which is now 33 years old, a very influencial jrpg series in Japan, even i fnot as much as Dragon Quest, MegaTen, or Final Fantasy. Now that all of these series have a character (SMT is different from MegaTen, and while Persona isn't SMT, it is part of MegaTen), I think that the series that defined arpgs back in the days would only be normal to be one of the following, especialy since Ys has been on many Nintendo systems in the past, even if not as much as other series, and while Falcom isn't as big as Atlus or Koei Tecmo, it's still a decently big and important video game company. So yeah, I do thin kthat Adol Christin will be part of the second fighter pass, in fact I even see him as the third mos tlikely character behind Dante and Hayabusa. Also there were some recent ports of Ys games to the Switch, even if I don't think that they matter all that much if at all for a character getting in Smash.

And this is it for my actual prediction, I truly believe that those 3 characters have the best chance to get into fighter pass 2 right now, but hey I beileved that Heihachi also had one of the best chances to get in and look where he is now. Though I do have to pick a fourth character for my prediction, so I might as well fly as close to the sun as I can since I have a big feeling of my predictions not being true despit whate I think, so I might as well go with my number 1 most wanted

Reimu Hakurei
The shrine maiden of paradise from Touhou Project, and the character I want the most in Ultimate as dlc. She has things going for her, between Touhou's massive popularity in Japan, how Nintendo were actively distributing music in a Reitaisai in the past, or how it was even said that if Touhou games were to be put on Nintendo systems, then Nintendo would help the Touhou series "in various ways", mere days before it was anounced that AoCF, an oficial Touhou fighting, would eventualy get ported to the Switch even if if had been a while since it was said and we still have no news of it. There's also the weird trademarks that hapened earlier this year, though there's no way knowing what it realates to. But most importantly, the reason I put her here instead of another character like Crash, Sol Badguy, Rex, or anyone, it's because I believe it can happen, from my heart. I'm likely wrong, but hey, anything can happen. Nintendo isn't predictable when picking the dlc after all, with multiple wild cards hapening in Ultimate's dlc cycle, so maybe she could be like, the Terry of Fighter Pass 2. But hey, even if I fly too close to the sun and my wings burn, then it's still alright.

Nominations
Everything I have on Hades

Ridrool64 · Oct 4, 2020

I'm making this with the assumptions that DLC Mii Costumes and Assist Trophies disqualify fighters from being added beforehand (and are representative of not being in the cards in the contemporary slots). Not necessarily their series, as I have a few corner cases, but that is why Rex and Waluigi are not here. If they are not disqualified, I'll put them in as outright alternative options since I think they're next to locks.

Challenger Pack #8: Arle Nadja & Carbuncle or Kazuma Kiryu
- Part of it is bias. But Arle has genuine, much more notable and impactful reasons to be added. Firstly, she's the token Japan hype third party after Steve gave the west crazy amounts of hype. Think the Hero to Steve's Banjo.
- If talks for Arle fell through, Kazuma Kiryu is absolutely plan B. Similar setup that trades Smash fandom popularity for more general popularity, though I am not sure if he has something that helps him stand out which is the biggest reason why I think he's a plan B for Arle.
Challenger Pack #9: Lloyd Irving or Dante (Rex & Pyra)
- I don't think ALL of the Mii Costumes are returning, and while some people are putting their money on the Monster Hunter and most are doing so on Geno, I believe Lloyd will take the position of the one to do so. A legacy ballot pick, and perhaps the Bandai-Namco character who makes the most sense.
- If I'm wrong and Lloyd's costume is coming back, Dante might be a bit big to go here, but I feel like he's got the most earnest shot of all the Capcom newcomers.
- This is gun-to-my-head so I belted Lloyd out. I'm not sure if Bamco will get a rep at all, in fact I'm leaning towards no, but I really do struggle to think of characters that could fit a smaller but notable niche with Travis getting whacked.
- Rex is guaranteed if DLC Mii Costumes do not disqualify characters.
Challenger Pack #10: Crash Bandicoot or Ryu Hayabusa (Waluigi)
- Crash: Challenger Pack #10 seems likely to be the intended E3 2021 reveal, likely the closer if #9 was the opener or #11 as the closer if it was the opener. E3 has yet to feature a character that either doesn't attract a wide audience or bring the western fandom to their knees, and this is the guy to do it.
- Hayabusa: Rumor mill guy who refuses to leave the rumor mill. Part of it is me believing that where there's smoke, there's fire, but the rest of it is just him making a lot of sense.
  - From a gameplay perspective, between Steve and Min Min changing the way Smash is played, and Arle and Lloyd/Rex having significant gimmicks of their own, somebody who is a breather among the gimmicky DLC would be appreciated and I think both Crash and Hayabusa fit that pretty well. Waluigi too, but he would be gimmicky in "how" his animations are done, less so in the feel department.
- If Assist Trophies are not disqualified, Waluigi is an outright lock. No getting around it.
Final Challenger Pack (#11): Galarian Pokémon, in particular Urshifu or Calyrex
- Repeat after me: the last reveal is never exciting. So this guy is gotta be a disappointment, and after the massive hype brought about by the past few characters, this guy is the reality check. Urshifu and Calyrex are even less popular than the base game cast, get around that pesky Spirit Event on a technicality, and have prominence as the mascots of SwSh DLC. And they probably have legit gameplay uniqueness to help them out.

Honorable mentions:

The Capcom Gang (Phoenix Wright, Monster Hunter and other Capcom reps)
- Ace Attorney just feels like a Spirit Event waiting to happen. While I don't think Wright is impossible, I do struggle to see how he could be added without aping his Marvel vs. Capcom 3 appearance. That might not be a problem to Sakurai, but... I don't feel it...
- First there was Rathalos, then there was Byleth. Now, I think the Monster Hunter costumes are returning, which is the nail in the coffin for the Monster Hunter.
- The rest are either already out (RE), already in (Mega Man, Street Fighter) or have trouble justifying their inclusion over the above three (most other Capcom franchises).
The Square-Enix Gang (Geno, Sora for simplicity's sake, 2B, Lara Croft)
- I am convinced Geno's Mii Costume is either returning or getting a remake for this DLC. I just think he's totally outclassed by Waluigi where it counts, in fan demand, which is the only reason to add him that doesn't apply to basically anyone. I don't think he's truly down, but unless an outright miracle happened I don't see him happening, especially when Nintendo has a character who is at least almost as popular (I'd argue atomically more popular), and is far more prominent, AND they don't have to pay to use him.
- Sora... well, Disney. Plus I think that he's absolutely out of budget for the pass. The royalties to use him must be a nightmare.
- 2B was really riding on being the Joker of the pass, and now she doesn't quite feel like somebody who'd get in. Mai's case, besides not really applying to Fighters, is unlikely to be why 2B doesn't make it, but I feel like her golden hour has passed.
- Croft has pretty much Crash's problem with much more active competition.
Other notable third parties
- Shinguji and Axel would be notable inclusions off of SEGA, but they don't have the fan backing or universal appeal Puyo and Yakuza (respectively) boast. The best I can see from them for now are Mii Costumes, unless something changes.
- Konami has pretty much entirely left speculation, because they have brand new DLC Mii Costumes that come outside of their pack. Bill Rizer is basically their last really good choice left anyway, unless you really want to use the things nobody knows Frogger for.
- Ubisoft... same deal as Konami. Brand new DLC costumes that came with Byleth, more than likely post Volume 2 discussions leaves me very uncertain of their picks. Besides the obvious Rayman, depending on if you think DLC Mii Costumes disqualify entire franchises or not with multiple candidates, Ezio could be in contention.
- Bethesda I am much more confident in for the same reason as Konami as not getting any characters. Vault Boy already got a costume and it is so blatantly fake by now
- The indie scene is in a somewhat similar boat. Shantae got a new lease on life, but I don't think Nintendo or Sakurai think enough of the franchise to warrant a selection. Shovel Knight is an Assist who isn't Waluigi. Frisk is in the same position as Ezio. That really leaves us with the Knight, Quote and Reimu (and Freddy Fazbear but he fulfills the same niche as Steve, so I can't see him). Reimu could be an alternative to Arle, while the Knight and Quote could be alternatives to Lloyd.
Other notable Nintendo characters
- Bandana Waddle Dee, I am so sorry. Always missing out on my predictions list. In this case, I think it's just... he always feels likely, but it never actually happens. And I don't think that's gonna change for a while.
- Zelda characters... can't really think of one that's more prominent than the others, enough so to warrant getting in over them.
- Other Pokémon
  - I am confident that we will never get an out-of-season Pokémon in Smash, unless it comes from Kanto. That gives us Meowth, but he's a Pokéball and those are the Assist equivalent for Pokémon. There aren't a whole lot of other major Kantonian Pokémon that make sense the way Meowth does either.
  - Other Galarian Pokémon... well, if the Spirit Event tells me anything it's that we probably aren't getting a starter. Or anybody from the initial launch. Zarude isn't a mascot
- I don't know whether to count Euden as Nintendo or third party but for simplicity's sake he's here. Dragalia Lost having actually no representation at all makes absolutely no sense. Something's up, but it could very easily be a Mii Costume or a Spirit Event.
- Most other series for now I think have trouble justifying a new Fighter. Fire Emblem just got one and has nothing to promote, while Dixie is popular I don't really see her as DLC material, and the others are borderline bad choices if the goal is making money.

Nominating Red x Max.

ArkSPiTFirE · Oct 4, 2020

This is hard as balls to predict, so i'm going on gut feelings with the direction the pass could go. Obviously Steve has TNT'd the idea of big western characters not making an appeareance so i'm keeping them in mind, but I have my own assumptions as well.

Isaac - Golden Sun
Only because I remain optimistic that if Nintendo wanted Golden Sun representation in Smash Bros, they would add Isaac and probably Felix and Matthew as alt skins. There's a lot of content they can add from Golden Sun and with rumours of a new release of his original game on the Switch in development then there's a great marketing opportunity to release both at once. There's really no evidence to say either are happening yet, but gut feeling and bias.

Crash - Crash Bandicoot
Crash seems like a perfect choice for ultimate, being a Sony platform icon for decades now, rivalling Nintendo's Mario and Sega's Sonic. He has been a nostaglic character for the longest time but now he's had re-releases and a new game to prop up his relevance. I think he could have a decent and amusing moveset and personality within Smash. However Activision is the wild card in this because we don't know their feelings on Smash inclusions. Not to mention they might have other choices they want to push like Tracer. I'm still hopefully just because Nintendo recognises it would be a good fit.

Phoenix Wright - Ace Attourney
Capcom rep is Phoenix. I'm definitely using my bias to pick Phoenix over Dante, and that's because I like the AA games a lot and have never played DMC. That's not so say Dante doesn't have a shot, but I think he showed up a bit late in popular requests to get picked for FP2. But anyway, I feel like Phoenix Wright has a lot of character and he's beloved in the gaming sphere. His moveset would have to be creative but I beleive Sakurai and his team can work miracles with moveset nowadays. I think they could do a lot with cameos, easter eggs and lots of good music would come with him.

Pokémon gen 8
Yuck. I don't want one, but its Nintendo. I don't think we'll get any other unrepresented Nintendo franchises beyond Golden Sun sadly, so they're going to dip into their work horses. Gen 8 pokemon is new, did really freaking good in sales on the Switch and has had well-ish received DLC updates. So we may see one right at the end, when all the third parties are done and confirmed. I'm not sure which one it would be, I see a lot going for Cinderace and Toxtricity. I...yeah. I'd rather see a Zelda rep or even Waluigi at this point but I think they're less likely.

----
Mii Costumes that will make everyone cry
Ryu Hayabusa
Geno
Lloyd
Monster Hunter

fogbadge · Oct 4, 2020

the fact that so many of you are predicting my most unwanted as happening feels very ominous

cant say im surprised though even i think hes getting in

chocolatejr9 · Oct 4, 2020

fogbadge said:
the fact that so many of you are predicting my most unwanted as happening feels very ominous

cant say im surprised though even i think hes getting in

Just to clarify, which one is your most unwanted? You seemed pretty upset with Steve, so I want to prepare myself, just in case...

TCT~Phantom · Oct 4, 2020

Just giving a heads up, this day will run until ~12 PM EST tomorrow.

Some passive observations that I have...

There is a degree of safe picks that many people tend to gravitate towards. The main ones I have seen are Rex, Crash, and Ryu Hayabusa. This does not surprise me. They are three of the overall highest rated characters we have in the thread in general. What does surprise me though is how Lloyd is not around in most of these predictions. Lloyd previously was someone we rated highly in chance. Perhaps people are more cynical towards him rn. His mii costume is not back yet, making his situation dicey. I do not think this is just that though, MH and Geno are still popular choices people are making.
First parties as a whole tend to not be seen as much save for Rex, Gen 8 Pokemon, and a future shill pick (most common here is BotW Zelda). Ironic since a few months ago people made Min Min out to be the savior of first parties. BWD still sees some love, but I wonder if that would be the case if he was revisited.
Despite the recent ESRB stuff for Altair, Vault Boy, and now Travis not getting their logos in the North American presentations, M Rated speculation does not seem to have cooled off. Dante is the frontrunner here, but other options like Kiryu, Doomguy, and Monokuma all have gotten nods. Guess Joker has helped everyone else look cool.
Waluigi is still kind of MIA. He always has been controversial around these parts. Many, including myself, do not like him. Many love him. But in terms of predicting FP2, he tends to get a nod more as an honorable mention rather than in the spot. I have seen far more Geno than Waluigi, another controversial character.
Dante certainly has overtaken Phoenix in terms of predictions. While in the past the two were much more competitive, Dante seems to have taken the crown around here. MH seems to even be more expected than Phoenix right now, he needs a turnabout.
Not enough of you have joined the RTC discord.

Now for some miscellaneous speculation ideas I have that might occur in FP2

Tetris stage: Look I am just gonna say that the fact this has not happened yet legitimately makes me mad to an extent. Tetris is huge and low key this would be a perfect DLC stage. Obviously Tetris is hard to work as a fighter, but as a stage? I doubt anyone would get mad if Tetris got a stage.
Hollow Knight Mii Costume: I predict we will get at least one more Deluxe Mii Costume ala Sans and Cuphead, and I think Hollow Knight is the best choice. His game had a decent japanese launch, and he could easily work as a Mii Swordfighter.
Shovel Knight Mii Costume: After Bomberman, I think Shovel Knight has decent odds of having some assets re used to make a Mii Costume too. Wish it would come with some music, but beggars can't be choosers.
DLC after FP2? Personally, I think even if we do not get a full pass, we might get one or two fighters afterwords. Most likely stuff like Astral Chain or a Gen 8 Pokemon though. FP3 is not truly alien to me, we might get it due to how well this will sell. Even if only 1/10 people who own ultimate got FP2, that still is 2 million people and a lot of money made. And I bet many people will buy up Steve.
Ganon's Tower, Milky Way Wishes, and Monster Hunter boss areas get repurposed as stages: This I could see Nintendo doing, at least the Ganon's Tower and Milky Way Wishes being repurposed. They have all the assets to make the stages due to WoL, so they could re use those and make DLC stages.

Golden Icarus · Oct 4, 2020

A lot of my picks echo what has already been said, but I still wanted to throw out my thoughts.

Dante - Devil May Cry
I was highly expecting Travis Touchdown to get in this time around. There are plenty of reasons as to why he may have missed the boat. Many say it's because negotiations for him came too late, but I feel that's unlikely. Suda has openly discussed his interest in having No More Heroes in Smash for years now. More likely, I'm thinking that Travis' niche was already being filled by another character. It's never fun to think about the game in terms of 'reps' and characters 'competing for slots,' but I do believe that Sakurai and Nintendo would want to reach the largest volume of fans as possible. Edgy, witty protagonist from a beloved action game series would be filled perfectly by Dante, and would justify Sakurai passing up the opportunity to add Travis. This is in addition to the fact that Dante is insanely popular, Capcom has shown to be an easy company to work with, and Dante had a massive spike in Smash requests at what might have been the perfect time. This is currently the character that I am the most confident in.

Ryu Hayabusa - Ninja Gaiden
Been hoping for this boy for a while now; a good 'ol NES classic character with an extensive catalog of retro and modern games. Koei Tecmo has a wonderful relationship with Nintendo, and he's one of the few characters with semi-credible leaks backing him up. Fingers crossed that this finally happens.

Crash - Crash Bandicoot
Surely we'll get a cartoony, platforming mascot to contrast with all the human swordfighters. While I'm tempted to put Rayman here, as I have a way stronger connection to his games. (Please buy Rayman Legends if you haven't. It's one of the best 2D platformers ever made.) Crash seems like the perfect character for Nintendo to pressure Sakurai into adding. His classic rivalry with Mario and Sonic already makes the addition appealing. Add on the fact that his series has seen a huge revival in the past couple of years, is finally getting some love on the Switch, and the fact that Nintendo is down with giving some love to Western characters and this starts to seem more and more like a no brainer.

Elma - Xenoblade Chronicles X
This is my tin foil hat pick. Many are expecting that another promotional first party Nintendo pick is imminent, with Xenoblade, Pokemon, and Zelda being the most commonly predicted. Rex seems to be more likely as he's from the most recent and best selling game in the series, in addition to Rex being in a similar position to Min Min. However, I'm trying to expect the unexpected. Given that the Fighters Pass is being stretched out all the way to 2022, our 'promotional' character likely won't be that simple. Xenoblade Chronicles X was critically acclaimed by fans and is one of the few games that has yet to be ported from Wii U to Switch. I feel that there is a high probability that we'll be seeing it in the near future; possibly lining up perfectly with a Challenger Pack.

Also, and this is more of a subjective take, but Elma is waaaay more interesting than Rex. From a personality, representational, and gameplay standpoint. Rex is such a blank slate of a protagonist, and while that hasn't stopped Sakurai before, I also feel that Elma has the credentials to possibly edge out Rex in the end.

Honorable mentions go to all kinds of characters. Dovahkiin, Pheonix, Rayman, Gen VIII mon, Arle, Geno, Waluigi, Monster Hunter, Lloyd, I could go on forever. Seriously. I know that we already have way WAY more than I could have hoped for, but I can't help myself from wanting them to just go on forever. As long as they are adding characters, I will be buying them. That being said, God bless Sakurai. The man has earned his vacation.

metalhydra273 · Oct 4, 2020

No particular order

Ryu Hayabusa: NES icon, Koei Tecmo being brought up a lot by many. With Steve's reveal, Ryu seems to be the definitive front runner to be one of the next 4 spots. Not much for me to say about him, I personally know very little about Ninja Gaiden, but it should be fairly easy to make him work. The company relationship is there, the franchise is definitely deserving of some kind of representation, and I wouldn't be surprised if he popped up at some point, without much warning similar to how Steve showed up.

Dante: I'd be very surprised if Capcom didn't get a single rep in either fighters pass considering how many potential candidates they have. This could easily be Phoenix Wright or Monster Hunter, but Dante seems to be the front runner thanks to recency bias. He has an overload of moveset potential to choose from, and I can see him being a very fun and popular character if brought to smash. Devil May Cry has gotten pretty massive over the years with recent switch ports, so him being the Capcom rep wouldn't exactly be crazy, and it could be a sign that Dante is on the table.

Arle Nadja: This is my Terry of the pass, with some Hero sprinkled in. A relatively niche, but massively important series in the genre, and very popular in Japan. I'd be very surprised if Puyo Puyo didn't at least get a spirit event. Ever since Byleth was revealed, it seems the hype around Arle has died down, and she seems to be getting overlooked by many speculators, but she still has plenty going for her. Puyo is starting to become much more advertised in the west, which could be a sign of confidence for things to come and getting Arle into smash would be a huge boon for the franchise's popularity with it's 30th anniversary is around the corner. Her moveset could be a mix of her spells and Puyo; it'd be hard to see her not having a gimmick, but I also hope she doesn't just become gimmick the character. Her main downside is whether or not Nintendo sought her out or overlooked her, but with the implications of Terry getting in, I can see Nintendo pulling a surprised with this dark horse pick.

Crash Bandicoot: A huge icon of the late 90's, Crash seems to be the last piece in the catalogue of gaming icons we currently have in smash. His moveset would be fairly straight forward, but Crash would be huge in terms of rounding out the finals slots of smash's roster. However, it's hard to say whether Activision/Sony would agree to having him as a character if Nintendo sought to work with them. There could possibly be others that could pose either easier or cheaper to work with, causing Crash to miss out. It's a rough prediction, but other than that possibility, I'd find it hard to believe if Nintendo simply overlooked Crash if they wanted a few more 3rd party picks.

Honorable mention:
A first party character: Very vague, but I can definitely see one or more of these predictions falling through to a 1st party character. The only one I can truly say is a front runner at this point in time is Hayabusa but nothing is definite. In terms of what Nintendo characters could be considered, a gen 8 pokemon is still a real possibility (not one I'd hope for though). Rex seems to be back on the table as of now, but would Nintendo want to rep Xenoblade 2 so long after its release? Arms has the possibility of an upcoming sequel, so I'm a bit skeptical about Rex. Geno could get in due to fanservice alone, but c'mon he's only been in one spinoff game and hasn't had the impact or promotional value that seems needed for a fighter's pass slot. He's definitely a front runner for a mii costume upgrade though imo. One more possbility would be Bandana Dee. At this point it's clear he is a main character/staple of the Kirby Series, so maybe Nintendo gives us a bit more Kirby content considering the series hasn't gotten much in terms of smash since Brawl.

fogbadge · Oct 4, 2020

chocolatejr9 said:
Just to clarify, which one is your most unwanted? You seemed pretty upset with Steve, so I want to prepare myself, just in case...

Well I wasn’t upset by Steve just disappointed even though I was prepared for him getting in from day one. Dante is my most unwanted, no offence to any of his many fans but I can’t stand him. Though I will try to restrain my irritation if he gets in

PeridotGX · Oct 4, 2020

reposting what I said in the Newcomer thread, but deluxe because I need to stretch out some paragraphs:

after the reveal of Steve, I re-evaluated my prediction roster. While it technically didn't need redone (Steve was already there), my opinions on a few things have changed. My new guiding principle, above all else, is that Nintendo and Sakurai are going for characters that heavily change the way the game is played. I don't think they're going for characters based solely on that, but it's definitely something they're focused on. Min Min's ARM gimmick is unlike anything else on the roster, and Steve is a terraformer, one of the few archetypes Smash lacked. I feel that every future charcacter will do something akin to this, on either a mijor or minor scale. Without further adou...

Omissions from previous prediction roster:

Waluigi. If we were getting another Mario DLC fighter, it would've happened before the big Mario tournament in November.
Pokemon. I can't think of a Pokemon who would change the game so dramatically

Reasonings:

Rex: Xenoblade is a series Nintendo wants to keep interest in, Sakurai wanted him in base, same spiel people have been saying for years. The unique gameplay possibility is the blade system. Rex could switch blades mid battle, and they would have different effects (I think, I never played XB2). kinda like Monado arts but more permanent. They could even have a unique move. We don't have any characters who have small changes to their moveset over the course of the battle, only big changes (Pokemon Trainer).

Bravely Default rep: Yeah, I think that the new Square Enix rep won't be Geno, Sora, or even 2B. Bravely Default is a Square Enix series that Nintendo has made a big deal of promoting, sound familiar

? It's been (to the best of my knoweledge) Nintendo exclusive, and they're making a big thing of promoting the sequel. The unique gameplay possibility would be the job system, effectively being a stance change character. That's, to the best of my knowledge, the last big Archetype Smash lacks, and a Bravely character is one of the better options. As for who: I don't know, I've never played Bravely Default.

Acfat-bPCog: I feel like there's a decent shot at both Overwatch and LoL getting represented in Smash, and I decided to go with a catchall term to describe both, as well as similar games like TF2. Those are a large part of the Gaming industry, and they should probably be represented. It helps that the Chinese market seems to like these sorts of games, and Nintendo's trying to get in the market over there.The unique gameplay possibility? Some characters are primarily built for FFas, some are built for 1v1, this character would be the first to be best in a team battle. Maybe this would mean that we'd get a support character for this reason (Mercy or Medic, for instance)?

these last two are much more flimsy.

Chell: Portal and Portal 2 are some of the most popular games of the 2000's. Valve also might get some benefit from a Nintendo partnership, as most Nintendo fans are console-only, having a PC(/Xbox) exclusive series in Smash would encourage them to get a Steam account. Additionally, apparently PC gaming isn't big in Japan, so Valve might see it as the ticket to get a foothold in that market. As for the Unique gameplay possibility: Portals. The big brain plays that could be acchieved with a portal gun would lead to an incredibly unique moveset (even more crazy if used in tandem with Steve).

Frisk: Yeah yeah yeah, I know the Sans costume exists. But I have a bit of a crazy crackpot theory that explains it all. Basically, it says that the Sans costume sold so well they decided to add Frisk to the second pass (which is why there are 6 characters instead of 5), The unique gameplay experience? Alternate win conditions. Sure, you could damage and kill your enemies the traditional way, but why not have a friendly chat and SPARE them?

Will I be wrong?

Noms: PMD Content x15, Maxwell x5

amageish · Oct 4, 2020

I overdid this. I'm putting it in a spoiler tab. Enjoy... whatever this is!

Yeah, no chance in hell I'm predicting this remotely accurately.... It's impossible and, frankly, I don't really find speculation as fun when it is based on the idea of picking 4 characters and defending their inclusion as 4 100% chances as opposed to having a sort of vague "soup of plausability" where like 150 plausible-enough characters sit.

So, yeah, I'm not doing this. Abstaining time!

amageish begins to walk away from the thread, before tripping and falling into a TV

Ow. That was painful. Where am I?

Hello.

Oh, hey, it's a clone of me with glowing yellow eyes. Hello!

I am a shadow. The true -

The true inner self, you reflect the parts of me that I repress, yeah, I got it. I've played Persona before. What's up? I could probably use some introspection...

I... um... Seriously? You have no follow-up questions to being in a physics-defying sub-dimension because you once played a video game about it?

Look, 2020's already been insane. Nothing about it could surprise me anymore. If I woke up to news that the trees started singing barbershop I wouldn't be surprised.

Please don't get me started about 2020...

Anyway... So... What do you represent? What am I repressing? What is my inner unacted desires?

I... want to predict the Smash Bros Fighter Pass.

Um. Sorry?

I want to accurately figure out who the 4 remaining characters coming to Super Smash Bros Ultimate are.

That's... that's my repressed desire? I mean, yes, I have claimed to be above that in the past, but... seriously? You know I'm trying to figure out where to go to grad school; I kind of that would be more of a priority in my inner anxieties...

No... I claim that I just speculate Smash Bros for fun, but I actually do want to pragmatically deduce what characters would/wouldn't be in.

Okay then... Well... Um... Shall we speculate then?

You... aren't going to deny that I'm a part of you? I have a very-exciting bossfight prepared! I become a dragon at one point.

To be honest, this doesn't sound worth fighting and probably dying over.

Oh. Okay.

Well, let's start with the first broad category: ballot picks. I expect one more character that is big within the Smash community, particularly drawing from Ballot-era speculation. That's still the only official data they have about requests and is seemingly the one they have continued to pull from...

I mean, fair enough, but Sakurai did mention Sans' popularity when revealing his Mii Costume, which suggests he has some knowledge of Ultimate-era requests.

I mean, of course he does. He has Twitter and Sans was a big meme pick. No surprise he saw it in his mentions However, the Ballot still is what inspired the Belmonts, K Rool, Ridley, and Banjo. It doesn't feel farfetched to say it'll continue to have an influence, especially with multiple stars of Ballot-era speculation still missing in playable forms. And Min Min shows that they're going back to reconsider the roles characters had in the base game, so a popular NPC being upgraded seem plausible enough.

Okay... So... Who do you think it'll be?

Honestly? Isaac.

Seriously? He hasn't done anything besides get a Mii Costume and Assist Trophy in Ultimate in... years... and he didn't even get new music in Ultimate. Feels like he just isn't a priority...

Camelot has done nothing since Aces, a game that was openly inspired by Golden Sun in terms of its storytelling. Multiple leakers including NateDrake have said they aren't doing a Mario Golf game. Golden Sun has a multitude of new trademarks which Nintendo has been fighting hard and would require proof of use. Golden Sun is all lined up for a comeback.

That's speculation on top of leaks on top of speculation though! Isn't it presumptuous to say that these leaks and theories will be true and hold that up as evidence for him being put into Smash Bros?

I mean, it is. But I predict it anyway.

My inner self is less pragmatic then I'd like them to be... Can't we just go with Bandana Waddle Dee? He's also popular from the Ballot era and he has guaranteed relevance because, well, he's a major Kirby character.

Fair counter-pick, but Kirby seems doomed to always be represented by the stuff Sakurai makes himself.

That's just arguring from precedent though. "It hasn't happened yet, so it'll never happen" is kind of the base-level bad argument in Smash speculation. I could use the same take against Isaac. I mean, would Sakurai really be adding a character when he didn't bother to do a pic of the day acknowledging their anniversary? Prince Sable from The Frog for Whom the Bell Tolls got a pic of the day...

Clearly that was because he didn't want to tease Isaac!

Ugh, we've gone from speculating about Sakurai tweets to speculating about tweets Sakurai didn't tweet? Is it like Jazz now? "It's more about the notes Sakurai doesn't play"?

Do you want to fight about it? I still have a 4-phase JRPG bossfight prepared.

Not really...

Okay. So, Isaac is our first prediction. Notable runner-ups for ballot picks are Geno and Bandana Waddle Dee.

Next, I expect a character that is at least labelled a "shill pick" in reception, even if it was one that has genuine support as well. This could be any character who has a new game worth promoting. Smash Bros is kind of a giant advertisement always, but these are the picks that make people angry about that.

So... Who are you predicting... a Gen 8 Pokemon?

What? No. It had a spirit event. That's pretty much a deconfirmation.

Yeah, but it's friggin' Pokemon. Pokemon can break all the rules if it wanted to.

Couldn't you say the same thing about Fire Emblem? Three Houses didn't get a spirit event.

Not really. Fire Emblem is a big franchise in terms of Nintendo mobile game profits, but Pokemon is the highest-grossing media franchise of all time. If one franchise is going to get special treatment, then it is this one.

Fair enough, I suppose, but it still seems worth holding onto the spirits. This isn't a rule based on precedent, it's a rule based on pragmatic "Why would they do that." Therefore. I'm going with...

SMTV Protag? Monster Hunter?

Will you stop interrupting! I'm sticking with first-parties for our promotional picks, but keeping doors open for third-parties is a good thing. I feel like people are overreacting to Travis' Mii Costume and acting as if a character being likely to be playable wouldn't also boost their odds of becoming a Mii Costume, so Travis' costuming is a bad sign for all future characters with games on Switch. But, no, I'm picking BotW Zelda.

I mean, I could see it, but isn't this more speculation based on speculation? As we don't know if Zelda will be playable in BotW2 or not...

This is true, but the interview about BotW2 feels like it would have just denied it if it wasn't happening. This isn't something you want to tease and have not occur... Moreover, Sakurai has made a few comments about Zelda's design lately...

Yeah, and he directly teased a Female Byleth amiibo before saying it wasn't happening. Sakurai sometimes just says off-the-cuff things.

I really wanted that amiibo...

Same.

Anyway, I still think Zelda is a plausible addition. It's been a long time since we've had a new Zelda fighter and a lot of core puzzle mechanics are still unrepresented. We could rep both Age of Calamity and Breath of the Wild 2. I mean, it seems plausible we'll have two years in a row of BotW-based holiday releases. That's huge and totally worth putting into Smash! She'd be mechanically unique, well-timed, pretty popular overall even if the Smash speculation part of the fandom would likely be annoyed...

I mean, she does have potential... But Sakurai also said she wasn't much of a fighter?

Yeah, that thing he said about Villager and Ridley.

Fair point is fair... Okay... Fine... Prediction 2 is Zelda with a Pokemon and Monster Hunter as runners up?

Ugh. A Pokemon doesn't even deserve to be a runner-up.

Well it is one. Let's move onto prediction 3.

Fine. My third category is what I'm calling the "back of the bus" picks. Like, the characters that just haven't had a chance to get into Smash yet, due to timing or just other priorities. Characters like Dixie Kong, who is known to have been considered in Brawl, or Lloyd, who was a Mii Costume in Sm4sh which is still MIA in Ultimate...

Oooooh, interesting category! I'm unsure if I'm too confidant in either of those, but both seem generally plausible. The fact that Min Min reused base game spirits in her board really helps out characters like Dixie Kong.

Exactly! Lots of potential.

Yeah... Though, if we're being pragmatic, then the choice kind of has to be Rex, doesn't it?

Why is that? It got a Mii Costume already, plenty of music, and spirits.

First off, you have a weird definition of "plenty" of music if you count XBC2's selection as plenty. Sure, it is more then XBCX has, but that could be added with Rex too. Moreover, Xenoblade was mentioned as a franchise that had poor timing for the base roster alongside ARMS. It doesn't mean Rex is happening himself, just like how Spring Man wasn't confirmed by "ARMS," but it does suggest that it would be an IP that'd come back to mind when looking for new franchises in the final six.

Yes, but you know how many concepts are considered once and never come back? How is Chorus Kids speculation doing these days?

A rhythm-based moveset sounds much harder to work with then Rex. Sometimes characters are considered/rejected for concrete reasons, but it's not clear such reasons exist for Rex? It seems like it was all just timing

XBCHD has come out in the meantime. There could be an X port in the cards too!

So? Sakurai still all but apologized for not including Rex in the base game?

But would he remain worth adding if we've had three XBC things since: Golden Country, the original remake, and then a hypothetical X port?

Isn't that the point of this category that you creaed? Characters who missed the boat before and are now safe to add at any time? Rex's support doesn't just vanish because new games are out. He's a known quantity that people have been speculating about for a long time.

Fine... Prediction 3 is Rex, but I'm giving Lloyd and Dixie Kong runner-up slots. I also still believe Elma and Lora are plausible.

Plausible, yes, but you're the one who said we had to be pragmatic and narrow it down to 4...

Okay, Final broad category: Some third-party companies are just kind of not in Smash Bros yet. Companies like Koei Tecno make a tonne of games for Nintendo, but only have content co-owned by Nintendo in Smash - and even then they have nothing from the Warriors games. Level-5 has nothing. Ubisoft only has a Mii Costume. I'm sure there are other companies that make Nintendo games with nothing in -

Spike Chunsoft makes Pokemon Mystery Dungeon! Do I get to do my Danganronpa rant?

Literally nobody wants to hear you do your Danganronpa rant. Danganronpa supporters don't want to hear you do your Danganronpa rant. I am thou and thou art I and I don't want to hear your goshdarn Danganronpa rant.

You... could have just said no.

Consider the despair of rejection a thematic choice. Anyway, there's really only one choice here: Ryu Hayabusa.

Ugh. Seriously?

I know you don't love him, but let's be pragmatic: Koei and Nintendo are inseparable at this point. They work together all the time. Most other companies work with Nintendo when Nintendo is already doing well, but Koei's willing to make a Warriors game exclusive to the Wii U. They made the enhanced version of Ninja Gaiden 3 on the Wii U with exclusive Dead or Alive characters, in spite of that being basically the worst console for a violent action game featuring blood and sex appeal. Just like ATLUS, Koei is a company that basically will make objectively bad decisions for Nintendo if Nintendo tells them too.

Fair enough... And Ninja Gaiden is a legacy franchise a lot of people have nostalgia for. Dead or Alive had impact on the development of eSports and I do think Kasumi is underdiscussed, but... if we're being honest, Ryu is the more likely candidate by a mile.

Exactly. So, do you agree Ryu is happening?

I mean, there just are still so many other companies who work with Nintendo and have nothing in Smash. Like, what about Cadence? Heck, she could possibly even use the reprogrammed stages that Steve required as she also has a block-based moveset system and does some digging...

As you said yourself, a rhythm-based moveset sounds hard to balance.

Have you seen what they did for Steve?

You think they'd treat an indie game with the same level of care they did the best-selling video game all of time?

Fine... Ryu is in our list, with Cadence and Layton as runners-up. I do still expect other companies who have worked with Nintendo before to get Mii Costumes though.

And that seems plausible. It's probably why Bethesda and Ubisoft and Team Grasshopper have started getting costumes. Similar things may happen with Marvelous and Level-5 and the like.

And Spike Chunsoft! I want a Komaru mii gunner.

And that seems implausible. Probably a Monokuma Mii Hat, if that.

But Tokomaru is my OTP and I need to be able to represent it in Smash Bros! It's very important to me!

Please stop. I'm your repressed desires and you're embarrassing me.

Ouch. You're mean.

I am you.

Okay... So... in review, our top 4 predictions are: Isaac, Zelda, Rex, and Ryu.

We... are very boring... expect for Isaac.

That we are. Is that my true self? A boring person with boring predictions... and also Isaac?

No. You're just someone who is more pragmatic then you claim. You like to discuss abnormal ideas and think of weird things, but you try to make your expectations mostly realistic and even your against-the-grain ideas are chosen because you think they're plausible. It's why you made a thread for a mii costume based on VA-11 HALL-A, a game that was insanely successful in Japan, and not, say, Monster Prom, one of your favourite games that isn't localized in Japanese.

Oh. Yes. This sounds like a fair analysis of how I conduct myself in speculation.

See? You've accepted me! Dang it, I was really looking forward to that bossfight...

> The Strength required to face oneself has been made manifest.

Ooo, nice! Now I just need to figure out how to get out of here... Um... I guess I wander around until I find poorly-written talking bears...

I am embarassed by the length of time writing that took.

Noms: Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x However Much That Was Worth

GoodGrief741 · Oct 4, 2020

amageish said:
Noms: Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x However Much That Was Worth

That was worth everything holy crap

CHAMPIONX9 · Oct 4, 2020

Since the popular predictions tend to be wrong, betting against them seems best.

Zelda character based on Hyrule Warriors. one of these guys, prob the most popular one.

2B
Tifa
Master Chief

Mii
Skyrim Dragonborn
Doomguy

DittoInDisguise · Oct 4, 2020

I'll throw my hat into the ring, so here are my picks (and some costumes)

Geno (w/ chocobo, mallow, and other SE costumes)
Dante (w/ returning MH, phoenix wright costumes)
Ryu Hayabusa (w/ Lloyd costume)
Waluigi (w/ bomberman style Isaac costume)

You can maybe replace dante with MH rep and Ryu with Lloyd, but I feel confident with these picks.

fogbadge · Oct 4, 2020

i forget, who are we rating next?

DanganZilla5 · Oct 4, 2020

fogbadge said:
i forget, who are we rating next?

Klonoa

Calamitas · Oct 4, 2020

Giving our predictions for the rest of the pass, hm? So, basically what all speculation has always been since Fighter Pass Volume 1, basically?

Alright, alright, I get that it's supposed to be more nuanced and detailed than this. However, I'll also buck the trend of people just outright naming four character that they think will make it, since quite frankly, I don't think I can really name any character I'm super confident is going to happen. Instead, I'll just share my thoughts on how the rest of this pass will generally go, and then share some of my thoughts on specific series or characters.
First off: I don't think we've seen the last of either third-parties, or first-parties as far as the rest of the DLC goes. Counting out either of these categories is just an open invitation to be blindsided by a character from the dismissed category to make it in, after all. With regards to the exact distribution, I'm also a bit uncertain. I could see an even split with two first-parties and two third-parties, one third-party and three first parties, and three third parties and one first-party. Confused yet? One, two, three.
But since the previous point I talked about was - at least somewhat - third-parties, I'll keep it somewhat related for this paragraph, which is going to be about the really big third-parties - that is to say, your Crashes, your Dantes, your Master Chefs, your Doomed Guys, and so on. With regards to these, I can somewhat see one more making it in, but only one more. I think most people will agree when I say that Steve was, pre-covid, intended to be revealed at E3. And since we know that the deadline for this Pass is the end of next year, the timeframe of E3 2021 also fits under this, which in turn means that a character reveal is slated for this. Since E3 time is still one of the most important times in the year for Nintendo, it would make sense for them bring their big guns in terms of character reveals for that. Ergo, one really big character would make sense. . . but with that, it's also worth keeping in mind that this character might not be who everyone expects them to be. Steve can certainly attest to that.
One more point I want to make with regards to third-parties in general is that I feel with regards to Western ones, I still don't see them as that much more likely as I perceived them pre-Steve. Sure, with Minecraft we have our first fully Western-developed third-party franchise that was not formerly owned by Nintendo in Smash. But. . . said franchise is the single best-selling game of all time right now. For another Western third-party franchise to make it in, it would have to be of a very high caliber, and be very popular in Japan, and I can't really think of any that fit that bill. Though I will freely admit that that is most likely also because I tend to not care much for these series.
These were some general points I wanted to make. Now, for some more specific series I want to adress (and I should stress, I'm not predicting all of these, I'm just giving my thoughts on all of them):

A Mario character: I generally don't consider them to be out of the running, but their time is running out, I feel. While Smash has historically not really cared for series anniversaries with its character choices, I can see the Mario series (and two other ones, which I'll get to in a moment) as Nintendo's mascot franchise being an exception to that. Since the general festivities, celebrations and so on that Nintendo is doing are still going until March of next year, I would also say that the best chances for a Mario character are also until then. The fact that a Mario newcomer wasn't revealed with the anniversary Direct in September is however already a huge mark against one coming at all in my eyes, and their chances aren't getting better. As such, I don't see Waluigi and/or Geno happening. Whether the latter has a fanbase that only really consists of a certain sub-set of Smash fans or not, his best shot are still the Mario celebrations, I think.
A Zelda character: So, I mentioned two possible other exceptions for the "Smash doesn't care for anniversaries" rule above, right? Well, this would be one other. The Zelda series has its 35th anniversary coming up next year, and is currently in an absolutely fantastic spot right now. Breath of the Wild has been one of the biggest successes the franchise ever had, with a sequel coming up (presumably next year) and a prequel coming next month. In addition to that, Sakurai and Nintendo can't be entirely deaf to the continuous disappointment that Zelda fans have felt over not having gotten a real newcomer since Melee. Given that Nintendo seemingly tends to name games or franchises to Sakurai that he then can pick a character from, I could see this being done with Zelda. That said, the fact that the bonus for buying Fighter Pass Volume 2 entirely is this Breath of the Wild armour set as a Mii costume casts this in a bit of an uncertain light. At the moment however, I don't view it as a clear deconfirmation, but still a hurdle that is best kept in mind.
A Pokémon character: And this is the third possible exception to that point about series anniversaries being acknowledged, though the one I'm least confident in for that. Pokémon has its 25th anniversary coming up next year, and we know that the series tends to have a spot reserved. . . for the base roster. I doubt - or rather, sincerely and whole-heartedly hope - that Gamefreak don't rush out Generation 9 next year, so a newcomer would have to come from Generation 8, considering how Pokémon usually operates with regards to newcomers in Smash. While there is Sword and Shield's spirit event from last year to keep in mind, I'm not entirely confident in that putting the series out of the running for another newcomer. Though I certainly would hope it did.
A Xenoblade character: One of the stronger contenders, I feel. The series is on the rise, Definitive Edition could very well be on its way to become the best-selling game in the franchise, and all eyes are on whatever Monolith Soft is doing next - and who knows, their next big project could be announced or released next year. I suppose I don't need to say how I personally believe this will shake out.
Crash Bandicoot: I'm really not convinced of his chances. Strong fan support that has been on the rise since the N-Sane Trilogy is one thing, but we're still talking about a Western third-party franchise here, which had a pretty long stretch in its history where it wasn't really doing anything noteworthy. With Crash 4 currently having no Switch release planned for it, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see him in this pass.
A Capcom character: Always a pretty safe bet. Between Dante, Monster Hunter, Amaterasu and Phoenix Wright, I could very easily see one of them making it in, but only one. Personally, I'm mostly for the latter two of my examples there, but I would see the former two as more likely. Though I also want to mention that I'm also a bit iffy on Dante and Monster Hunter specifically because they are currently so frequently talked about. I'll concede that this isn't really a very substantiated point, but the very frequently talked about don't really tend to make it in, it seems.
A Bandai-Namco character: Not confident in one of these at all. Bandai-Namco just seems to be very uninterested in seeing any more of their characters in the game. Sure, Lloyd's Mii costume is still missing, but he could just as easily come back with a future Fighter Pack. KOS-MOS' chances are meanwhile just generally overblown.
A Square Enix character: Given their vast variety of characters, I also wouldn't be surprised to see any of them any making it in. But at the same time, I'm not entirely convinced of any of them making it in. For some more specifics, I don't see another Final Fantasy character or Lara Croft making it in. The former since I doubt that any of the already-represented third-party franchises will double-dip with this DLC, and the latter because of the hurdles of being a Western character. Speaking of the former point though:
Any already represented third-party franchises double-dipping: Not gonna happen.

. . .Uhhh, and I think that's all that comes to mind.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x20 (if this qualifies for the 20, lmao)

TCT~Phantom said:
Sorry Calamitas and Cutie Gwen .

Don't worry, that's just gonna make it funnier when it turns out you're wrong.

fogbadge · Oct 4, 2020

DanganZilla5 said:
Klonoa

ok then

Pinguino21v · Oct 4, 2020

My predictions are...

Phoenix Wright: Dante seems to have gain traction these days but I'll stick to the attorney. If they are going gimmicks, Phoenix has potentials for a weird move set. Dante is 100% costume.
Ryu Hayabusa: I certainly see Koei Tecmo getting something. I'll expect a full fledged fighter, but maybe it could be a costume.
Isaac: the AT promotion is happening, I'm sure of that, and Isaac is at the best position to take that spot, between support and outcry before the launch, and the cross promotion with the rumored new game.
Elma: this last spot is hard to guess. It could be Lloyd from Bamco, Rayman from Ubi, or a Level-5 character (Layton or Jibanyan). I'm going for another first party however, hoping that Nintendo see the potential she has as herself (move set wise) and as cross promotion.

I honestly don't see Crash happening, it's Nintendo who's choosing.

Glaciacott · Oct 4, 2020

This should be fun. For context, these were my predictions to the pass before Min Min, but after we knew Arms was FP6:

Min Min/Spring Man
Crash Bandicoot
A Xenoblade
A Pokemon
Puzzles & Dragons
Waluigi

So, what changes now?

Min Min is in in so that goes untouched.
Minecraft getting a spot is huge and is the $$$ pick I would have imagined would be puzzles and dragons. Which means my confidence in a mobile title is lower in general
Confirmation that this pass isn't entirely first party, Nintendo catch-up. Where before it seemed possible we'd get all sorts of first parties and they could all happen, now I find them far more unlikely. The list above had 4 1st party and 2 third party, and I no longer believe that ratio to be applicable
2021 is the name of the game now. Where I think originally the goal was for 3 characters this year and 3 the next year, now we have a whopping 4 characters next year. What surprises me most is that the next amiibo release also implies this (all three being marked for 2021), and that the end-date for the pass was not post-poned into 2022 which I definitely expected.

I think this item above is not getting sufficient consideration. Mainly when we're talking about Pokemon Gen 8 as a safe pick: we could argue that if pokemon gen 8 were indeed to happen it would need to happen this year to properly push sales of the Sword/Shield DLC and definitive edition or w.e., which we did have announced recently. Next year I would wager Pokemon Company should have its next game garner all the attention, and I strongly doubt it would have gen 8 focus. BUT, we could argue this was going to be the DLC for this Fall, had Minecraft not been pushed out of being the big E3 announcement... but that's still a very specific set of circumstances.

Nintendo is picking these characters, and based on the Minecraft story it's not unlikely some were even desired by Nintendo before we even got to the DLC phase. There may be characters Nintendo wanted in that didn't make it but that they still will want to see in.
The idea of 4 characters in 2021 is also convincing me that we won't get any bonus fighters a la Piranha Plant. Before I thought maybe this would happen to Waluigi/Geno, now I don't think it likely at all; unless the pass is pushed back to 2022 and we get a bonus freebie fighter as compensation, but we'll see I guess.

Anyway, how all of this manifests into new predictions:

two first parties - one as the release for early 2021, and one to close the pass when everyone will be disappointed and expecting Dante/Sora/Master Chief etc.
two third parties - one marked as the "E3 megaton pick of 2021" and the other still on the realm of significant (like Terry and Joker) but not as "huge"

- from Splatoon... Octolings joins the battle!
It's only recently that I woke up to this super slept on pick, and now it's one I consider to be the most likely first party.
Splatoon/Inkling were the very first pick for this Smash Bros, likely conceived the very second the idea of Smash on Switch came up. So probably 2015, around the time Splatoon had just released and made a huge splash.
Since then, Splatoon 2 has come and gone and... well, it hasn't really gone though. It continues to gather marketing focus, it continues to receive splatfests long after the devs were done introducing new content. It brought about new modes, new playable characters, new weapons, new specials and, by virtue of being on the Switch, a lot more players than the original game. If we look at it in a timeline, Arms was the first big Switch game outside of BotW which was pushed from the Wii U. The big thing after Arms was Splatoon 2.
With all this in mind, I think it is reasonable that a year or so ago Nintendo would have wanted to showcase more content for a rising titan of a series by calling out to Splatoon 2. And in doing so, call attention once more to it and push sales even further.

- Crash joins the bash!
There's no change of opinions here, and I'm still very strongly in believe that Crash is the next big thing for Smash. A huge mascot from the 90s that also happens to be back in full-force and is more alive than he has ever been. Not only that but this can actually bring us an old-school duel of what was once a mascot of Playstation taking it on against Nintendo mascots. The storyline is excellent for this character and it's money waiting to happen.
We also see that working with western third parties can and has been done with Minecraft, and like Mincraft, Crash is a western property that is also fairly popular in Japan as well. We're also talking about a character that has seen interest from fans since all the way back before Melee. I think everyone is right in expecting Crash and it would be a huge huuuuuuge gap if he somehow didn't get in.

- Ryu sneaks in!
Deciding on a second third party to get in after Crash was super difficult. The list is tremendous and there are tons of likely AND deserving candidates. But I ultimately went for Hayabusa.
Main reason is because Koei Tecmo handling various Warriors properties with Nintendo shows a clear indication of close collaboration that I truly feel to be significant. It's something where Nintendo would definitely want to acknowledge their role in the industry with one of their more famous characters.
And then, like Terry, this is the kind of character that's adding representation from a new company, a new world and also one that has very significant historical relevance. Ninja Gaiden on the NES is a classic of the genre and seeing it represented in Smash is the type of things people dream of.
Lastly, I don't think Lu Bu or a warriors character would fit in as comfortably. I also feel off about having characters that are not exactly just Dynasty Warriors characters but also actual historical figures. It's the same discomfort I had back when people would suggest characters from Codename S.T.E.A.M. like Lincoln. Hayabusa not only dodges this with ease, but it also represents Koei Tecmo exceedingly well.

- Waluigi breaks out!
I struggled a lot on figuring out what the closing first party character would be. The past couple times we've gotten a Fire Emblem to everyone's disappointment, and I do not think they would do that a third time. So what would be equally angering and divisive to the internet?
And that's where I got back to Waluigi. I think a Xenoblade rep is still likely but as time passes I become less and less convinced about Rex and even moreso about Elma. The only saving grace for Elma is if we see an X re-release somehow, but I am also not confident in that. I also do think a second Splatoon rep is more likely right now than a second Xenoblade rep.
Xenoblade aside, it led me to two things: a mario rep or a zelda rep. Zelda rep is far harder to predict because we don't know where BotW2 stands and what it would bring, as otherwise I would consider this one to be the far likelier option. BotW is massively impactful and honoring that with one more character makes sense to me only if it draws from BotW2. Mainly because the first one is still fairly well represented (mii costumes, stage, new link), and the hype over Age of Calamity feels as ephemeral as the hype was for Hyrule Warriors (it's amusing to have seen Impa focus go so high when warriors was shown and then it led to nothing, and then the same exact thing happen years later.)
So, that leads me to Mario. Paper Mario's time has come and gone and one could say he got spirited away. Geno... is something that could also happen and be potentially as divisive as Waluigi. BUT, for me the difference here is the character being Nintendo's choice... and in that respect I still think Nintendo would choose Waluigi before choosing Geno. And, cue the hate mail... if this happens I could see Geno being a deluxe mii character with song included.

So, summary, here are my predictions right now for the remainder of the pass:

Octoling
Crash
Ryu
Waluigi w/ Geno deluxe mii costume

BlueEyedGrimmbat · Oct 4, 2020

Reimu Hakurei:
Steve in Smash was actually a pretty good day for indies, and plus many of the arguments for Reimu still stand. If there's going to be a Japanese character, Reimu's it.

Ryu Hayabusa/Zhao Yun/Lu Bu:
Koei Tecmo is getting something - I just don't know what. Ninja Gaiden has more Nintendo history, but Dynasty Warriors is more popular. Who knows?

Crash Bandicoot:
Ah, the mascot trio. Crash in Smash would complete the trinity of platforming icons with Mario and Sonic. Activision aside, he deserves to be in Smash.

Pokemon/Zelda character:
With BoTW 2 on the horizon, Nintendo will probably want to do one more for themselves. I'm leaning towards, Zelda, but we can't discount the possibility of a Pokemon.

...That's all I got.

Noms:
All of them go on Amiya. If I still have the leftover noms from Impostor, give them to Amiya as well.

Mr. MR · Oct 4, 2020

TCT~Phantom said:
Now for some miscellaneous speculation ideas I have that might occur in FP2

Tetris stage: Look I am just gonna say that the fact this has not happened yet legitimately makes me mad to an extent. Tetris is huge and low key this would be a perfect DLC stage. Obviously Tetris is hard to work as a fighter, but as a stage? I doubt anyone would get mad if Tetris got a stage.

Hollow Knight Mii Costume: I predict we will get at least one more Deluxe Mii Costume ala Sans and Cuphead, and I think Hollow Knight is the best choice. His game had a decent japanese launch, and he could easily work as a Mii Swordfighter.

Shovel Knight Mii Costume: After Bomberman, I think Shovel Knight has decent odds of having some assets re used to make a Mii Costume too. Wish it would come with some music, but beggars can't be choosers.

DLC after FP2? Personally, I think even if we do not get a full pass, we might get one or two fighters afterwords. Most likely stuff like Astral Chain or a Gen 8 Pokemon though. FP3 is not truly alien to me, we might get it due to how well this will sell. Even if only 1/10 people who own ultimate got FP2, that still is 2 million people and a lot of money made. And I bet many people will buy up Steve.

Ganon's Tower, Milky Way Wishes, and Monster Hunter boss areas get repurposed as stages: This I could see Nintendo doing, at least the Ganon's Tower and Milky Way Wishes being repurposed. They have all the assets to make the stages due to WoL, so they could re use those and make DLC stages.

After getting Minecraft in Smash my mind instantly went to Tetris as the next most obvious great icon of gaming. The only way I see Tetris as a fighter is to tie it to Arle Nadja/Puyo Puyo. It seems the perfect two birds with one stone move. Arle from what I understand scored high on the ballot and Tetris lacks a character. Slap the two together and you get a popular character and a Tetris themed rep all rolled into one. Bada bing bada boom. To get it all to work legally is probably the real challenge. If we don't get any Tetris reps then I can definitely see us getting a Tetris stage after the fighter pass.

Smash this time seems to like giving popular indies a nod, and what better Mii costume than from Hollow Knight or from the semi-exclusive Silksong? Also it would be really cool to get one of their tunes into Smash.

The fighter passes seem to be focused on characters with very unique movesets so I could see us getting a few echoes, stages, or some light development characters after FP11 or after a possible 3rd pass. I mean we already got Small Battlefield in the middle of a pass. As you pointed out there's already a lot of possible stage assets they could take from WoL for some low dev stages.

YoshiandToad · Oct 5, 2020

Predictions eh?

Well Steve kinda screwed up a lot of what I was expecting. I was expecting a more first party heavy pass due to budgetry limitations, and more Switch games to get representatives...

...now I guess I'm having to re-evaluate. I was feeling good about Captain Toad(not great, but good) but Steve covers a few things he'd have for sure like minecarts and pickaxes, so despite his triumphant return in 3D World + Bowser's Fury early next year I haven't the confidence in my fun guy I briefly had.

Assist Trophies I don't see getting promoted at all. A lot of people are saying it's going to happen, but I just don't believe it.

Dixie Kong likewise took a tumble down a mine thanks to Steve, since I thought she had a good shot if it was all first party(and Switch focused), same with Bandana Waddle Dee who try as I might I cannot see getting in at this point.

Onto what I can see, and hoo boy it's all predictable...err...predictions:

Crash Bandicoot
Alright this one is obvious. Big old 90s platforming mega star, sells gangbusters, very popular, recent HUGE resurgance and heavily pushed by Activision to the point I think Crash overtook Tracer as the front runner for the company.

There's also the whole Mario vs Sonic vs Crash rivalry. Although it was never as prominent as Mario vs. Sonic which had a longer time to build up, Crash is realistically the only rival Mario ever had in the Kart racing series, and Playstation pushed him as an edgy mascot to take on the portly plumber back in the day with their...unique adverts.

Probably the only western character I'm relatively positive has a shot now Steve is in.

Monster Hunter
Yeah, I know, I know...we had some elements in base with Rathalos, so why would they have a DLC character now?

Rise. Capcom have Rise on the...errr...hor-rise-an, and the zip wire climb thing that as far as I'm aware is new to the franchise would make for a more enjoyable version of Monster Hunter. Multiple weapons is a gimmick Sakurai's played with before so I can see the idea of a Spiderman like figure wielding huge blades and rare weaponry appealing to him.

Also Monster Hunter and Resident Evil are the biggest Capcom games left, and if Steve is anything to go by you need a big series which I think puts smaller series like Phoenix Wright and Okami on the back foot.

Rex
I don't think Rex is a shoo-in, I just think he's the most likely first party character right now. Whether he's with Pyra or Mythra I cannot say, but I'd assume they'd appear in his moveset.

Min Min was around the same time as Rex after all, and Sakurai's apologised for not including him. Hopefully that's not the end of Xenoblade 2's Ultimate experience.

Cinderace
Yep. The most obvious Pokemon pick thanks to the anime having the deutagonist currently having it as his partner. A lot of people are going to hate this, but honestly Cinderace is the only starter of the trio I actually like so if we HAVE to have one, I guess I'm cool with it. It's a third fire starter(twisted fire starter) but it's also the most sensible choice here with the company clearly pushing Scorbunny's line more than Sobble and Grookeys.

Overall I'd prefer a non starter Pokemon, but let's be real the likes of Obstagoon or Sirfetch'd happening are...well...farfetch'd.

-------------------------------

None of these are my favourite choices, but these seem the most realistic to me right now. Yeah, there's nothing here that's particularly different from what everyone else is predicting either. Oof. How dull.

Hopefully that's enough for my nominations?

If so Impa X 20.

7NATOR · Oct 5, 2020

I'm gonna get flak for Some of these, but here goes (also this is unordered)

Ryu Hayabusa

The one thing I wonder is why he hasn't happened yet until so far. in any case, I think there's a likely chance he can get added. Stuff seems to be pointing towards him with all the Rumors and stuff. I've got nothing else to Say on this

For his Moveset, I guess he'll be based on NES Incarnation, mixed in with the 3d Trilogy games. Maybe some DOA stuff in there. Perhaps he could have Stances. He'll Definitely have the Izuna Drop. Also we'll finally get someone that uses a Katana

Reimu

I'm interested what her 3D Model will look like. She has had some in Fangames, but it won't look as good as Smash of course. In terms of her though, She's Dirt Cheap. She'd be the easiet 3rd Party character to License (for Playable). She's very Popular in Asian Countries, and she has a niche fanbase in the West as well. Music is Legendary. She has also had Rumors going for her, and some stuff like Hakurei Shrine Trademark being Granted Ownership for the First time, suggesting Licensing Possible Stage for her Challenger Pack

Her Moveset would be based on Bullet Hell Mechanics. She'll probably be like Jigglypuff if She had Projectiles. I hope they can balance that Correctly

Euden (Dragalia Lost)

This could easily Age Poorly if we get a Spirit Event soon, since honestly next Week is the Perfect time for the Dragalia Lost spirit Event to come. In any case, Nintendo owns some stake in Cygames, who helped make this new I.P. While it is a shared I.P, Dragalia Lost is a 1st Party I.P, so that's something to consider.

Apprantly Cygames actually helped make the FEH Music Track we got, so we know they are definitly on board for Smash. there was also those Katalina Rumors way back, that suggested Cygames talked to Nintendo about a character of theirs. I Don't think we'd be seeing Playable Katalina, but I think Euden might have more in his favor since there is more benefit for Nintendo in this alley. The Mobile Game has been pretty Popular too, I believe Nintendo's 3rd best Profitable Mobile game

In terms of Moveset, His Main Mechanic would be that Dragon Transformation. I think of all the Transformations, there'll be more to this one, since it changes the Size, Power, Moves, etc of Euden to that of a Completely New character.

Shadow the Hedgehog

My Biased pick, But I honestly actually think he has some favor. He's Popular, Fan Requested, so that checks that out, and Casuals would know who he is as well

I think the big thing for Shadow is Asset Re-usablity. Bomberman (and Base game costumes like Isaac and Skull Kid) use the AT Models for their Mii Costumes, but it's a Smoothed out, better version of those since they have more Polygons than their AT Counterpart. They could surely do this for an Assist to Playable character like Shadow. Along with that, Shadow could use some of Sonic's animations for easier animation

However with that being Said, his Moveset would be Completely different. It probably would be a Focus on his Chaos Powers. He could have the Hero/Dark meter thing from Shadow the Hedgehog. Chaos Control (both Teleport and Timestop) can be used Conceptually in unique ways that other characters in the game don't do. Stuff like Teleporting during Smash attacks, Teleport Combos like DBZ, Full Time Stop That's not Counter, Time Rewind, stuff like that. He also has Sonic Related moves Sonic doesn't use like Light Speed dash, Boost attack, and Black Tornado. Perhaps one of his taunts could be summoning Guns. Rocket skates could also be used as well

Ornl · Oct 5, 2020

• Crash – by default.
• Monster Hunter – Ultimate collaboration with Nintendo. 11 amiibo have been created.
• Impa with Koei Tecmo content – Ultimate '4th' TLOZ rep, with a Team Ninja style. TLOZ doesn't need any promotion Fighter, but Hyrule Warriors 2 (and its future DLC?) does. She would be the best choice, the eye that watches over the 3 triangles. Then, the Triforce forms 4 triangles, one of them is in the shade...
• Space Invaders – Ultimate icon, one of the main representatives of the history of video games. They could have an unique gameplay where 3 (or more) creatures are deployed in formation.

TraaP · Oct 5, 2020

78. Ryu Hayabusa
79. Rex
80. Geno
81. Sora

To be candid from the way the announced there would be six characters, and Sakurai’s comments during the Byleth presentation. I’m leaning towards that the sixth character was one who Nintendo wanted but wasn’t allowed and then the company changed its mind, or that a company requested their character to be in Smash after the five fighters were decided and Nintendo agreed.

Lionfranky · Oct 5, 2020

- Ryu Hayabusa: Yeah, I'm pretty much beating a dead horse here. It's weird that Koei hasn't gotten any rep. They have been super cooperative with Nintendo. It's time for Nintendo return the favor. He also checks NES retro rep although I never played NES games. He would be different from all those anime swordmen with his flash ninja moves. But I'm not sure what kind of gimmick he can bring to the table. Steve really raised the bar.

- Capcom rep: I think it's pretty much toss up between Dante and Phoenix Wright. People bring Monster Hunter rep due to Rise. Frankly, I'm not so sure. Other series can also go for promotion especially with DMC's recent port. I think MH would've already had playable character with Rathalos in base game. MH is different from ARMS because it's third party. There are only select few for obvious shill/promotion.

- First party: Pokemon, Zelda, Xenoblade... I can see case for promotion for all of them. It's hard to pinpoint on which one. Promotion can happen after much later.

- Master Chief: Call me crazy. I think there is case for double dipping. Vergen's Minecraft rumor finally came true. I think the same will happen to King Zell's Halo rumor. Covid must've really messed up and prolonged the schedule. Halo 4 PC is about to be released this year, so maybe, they can work on Switch port. Even without port, Microsoft has shown good relationship with Nintendo. They could've made double deal: we will give you Steve, but also save one more slot for Master Chief.

Nom: Neptune x 10

Folezicle Lives! · Oct 5, 2020

My Prediction
Impa: To support the release of Age of Calamity. I think like Byleth it will be released after the game's release. It also could strengthen ties with Koei Techmo (if we don't get Impa I think it's highly likely we will get a Koei Techmo character). Impa's gimmick would be cloning
Rillaboom: I know people think Cinderache is most likely but three fire starters seems a bit overcrowded. I do think we will see a Sw/Sh pokemon. Eterantus would make for a fun match up with Ridley (kinda got similar build). His/her unique gimmick would be rhythm oriented moves (with the drum). I actually like Urshifu as he is all about evolution as a gimmick (much like Lycanroc).
Monster Hunter: With Rise and its popularity in Japan it surprises me that we haven't seen Monster Hunter as DLC already. His unique gimmick would be that grappling bug.
Joker Equivalent (A character which might come unexpectedly): I'm really hoping for a Yakuza rep. I think this character will likely be third-party.

Edit: If an Astral Chain 2 is coming I would say a rep for promotional material is super likely.
Edit 2: Nomination Tetris99 Stage

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