Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 351: Dovahkiin (Skyrim)

Sari

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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 1%
Could always happen but I don't think it's on the same level as old school NES games like Castlevania or Contra.

Want: 0%
Don't really care about him.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10
 
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606
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 10
Unless they were requested a lot on the smash ballot and I didn't know about it I don't think its happening. seems like most of the roster are based on the ballot

Want: 10
Don't really have much knowledge of Ryu or Ninja Gaiden to say I'd like him in. That being said, I'm not against it as long as the character is fun to play.

Nomination: Nathan Drake x10
 
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So... I don’t think it’s cool to be taking over this thread? Like yeah maybe TCT~Phantom has been missing the schedule but it’s still his baby and it kinda feels wrong to snatch it away from him because he had a couple rough days (or whatever’s been going on).

I for one will abstain from playing until things are worked out. It’s not a tragedy to wait a few days longer.
 
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So... I don’t think it’s cool to be taking over this thread? Like yeah maybe TCT~Phantom has been missing the schedule but it’s still his baby and it kinda feels wrong to snatch it away from him because he had a couple rough days (or whatever’s been going on).

I for one will abstain from playing until things are worked out. It’s not a tragedy to wait a few days longer.
It wouldn't hurt for someone to care for it while he's away, babysitters do exist.

If he comes back and is still up for it, I'm sure we'll let him be in charge again.
 
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It wouldn't hurt for someone to care for it while he's away, babysitters do exist.

If he comes back and is still up for it, I'm sure we'll let him be in charge again.
I guess, it just doesn’t feel right to me. Not because I think anybody’s planning to take over permanently, more the thought of... being supplanted?

This is just my stance, you guys can carry on.
 

Klimax

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Ryu Hayabusa
Chances: 0%
People are not asking for him, that's why he has no chance for the Smash Fan Service in my opinio.

Want: 51%
He's a cool character and i loved Ninja Gaiden on NES even though it was hard as hell. So yeah, i would like him.
 
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Artix

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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 15%
While he does have history with Nintendo (Ninja Gaiden trilogy on NES), I don't think we're gonna get him, especially since his modern games are more violent.

Want: 90%
I actually wouldn't mind having Hayabusa in the game. He's like one of the badass ninjas in video game history and seeing him fight against Greninja will be the most epic battle you can have in Smash.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x10
 
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ryu
chance
to minor of a 3rd party and with a limited roster. I think they want to go with classic nintendo heavy hitters.
5%


want
No attacment ot the charcter or francise. I think he could be cool but yeah I want someone like Crash or Rayman first.
10%
 

zeonie888

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Ryu Hyubusa
Chance: 1%
Despite starting in the nes there are others to pick up before him

Want: 1%
I don't have much attachment to the character nor franchise. I feel that there's a good amount of ninja in Sheik and Greninja

Nomination: Nathan Drake x10
 

TCT~Phantom

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Ladies and Gentlemen, I am unofficially taking over.

LABO MAN RATE WEEK OVER

DAY 130 - RYU HAYABUSA OF NINJA GAIDEN FAME

Since this will confuse people on whether this is official or not (It’s not, but there’s still three scheduled days left), rating for the Ninja Gaiden will last from the time this post is made to Monday, August 20th at 12:00 PM EST.

I found Connery’s most recent Nominee list. I went out of my way to update the list from the time that post was made to today and Saber got the big push. Going from 5th place all the way to 1st. 5 votes away from breaking 300 nominees.
Saber x295
Viridi x278
Nihilego x275
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x255
Katrielle Layton x243
Concept: Style Savvy Character x235
Scorpion x231

Over 200

Dragonite x227
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Django x210

200 - 151

Rowlet x200
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x200
Ray x198
Ninten x198
Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Concept: Hanafuda Character x182
Papyrus x175
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x175
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Tsubasa Oribe x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveler Character x150
Louie x150
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x138
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x135
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x125
Barbara x122
Terry Bogard x122
Klonoa x117
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Item: Beast Ball x112
2B x111
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x110
Raiden x105
Susie x104
Daroach x102

100 - 51

Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Ken Masters x90
Medusa x90
Tora & Poppi x87
Edelgard x85
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x85
Fjorm x80
Veronica x73
Rick/Cool/Kine x69
Yu Narakumi x66
Item: Breidablik x65
Zeraora (Pokemon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Heihachi x60
Slime x58
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x56
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Chorus Kids x50
Frank West x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Tapu Koko x45
Rhythm Girl x40
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25

Under 25

Adeleine x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Master Chief x20
Concept: Target Test & Platforms Test stage builder x20
No More Stages x20
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Earthworm Jim x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x10
Break the Targets x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Gardevoir x10
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x10
Dovahkiin x10
[Rerate] Isabelle x10
[Rerate] Dixie Kong x10
Metal Sonic x10
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Alm x5
Nia x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Concept: Valve Character x5
Nathan Drake x5
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x2
Diskun x1
Confirmed Nominees
Stage: Fountain of Dreams x105
Stage: Brinstar Depths x45


Disconfirmed Nominees
Nikki x115
Zero x105 (I assume this is Mega Man’s Zero.)


If there are any other nominees from the list that have also been confirmed/disconfirmed, please point them out.

I’m adding seven more nominees to the RTC schedule.
VOTING FOR THEM NOW IS OBSOLETE


The schedule will go as follows:
August 20th - Day 131 - Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101)
August 21st - Day 132 - Concept: Female Announcer
August 22nd - Day 133 - Kamek (Yoshi)
August 23rd - Day 134 - Saber (Fate/Stay Night)
August 24th - Day 135 - Viridi (Kid Icarus)
August 25th - Day 136 - Nihilego (Pokemon)
August 26th - Day 137 - Concept Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices*
August 27th - Day 138 - Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton)
August 28th - Day 139 - Concept: Style Savvy Character

August 29th - Day 140 - Scorpion (Mortal Combat)

*I have no idea what to do with this one. DK and Diddy clearly retained their animal voices, and even K. Rool seems to have the animal grunts. There’s still Bowser but I think he’s retained the animal grunts as well. Anyone have a video of Bowser if there’s any? It could be made into a double rate day. What does everyone think about this one?

Because of this long period, starting with Ryu Hayabusa, everyone gets x10 nominations. The bonus period will last until Scorpion’s day on August 29th (or Dragonite’s depending on what people say about the canon voices.)

Another reminder that today we're rating Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden.

Let’s see how long I last~
*TCT~Phantom

Sorry for the delay, I was travelling from Canada to NJ by car and had to drop someone off in Burlington. I was on vacation which I probably should have mentioned but since I had no service where I was, what ya gonna do. Also I tend to do days as a looser thing, since when the schedule is not as strict people tend to drift into the thread and participate. If y'all want more strict timings of days, I can do that as well.

Since I messed up, I will keep the x 10 noms in place. I understand that I kept Labo Man (who full disclosure I was going to give double zeros) on way too long. I mess up sometimes.

Went through the noms list, it looks good, post would have been out earlier if I was not double checking them. Some concerns though. I do personally think Canon DK Voice lines has been deconfirmed via the K Rool trailer, and I would be willing to let some of those noms go to other ideas. I also feel Kamek is dead since we got Mushroom Kingdom U coming as well. If people would wish to have them rated or move those noms towards something else, I would oblige. Normally I do not like to do this, but since I have lagged behind I am in a generous mood.

Next, calcs and the front page.

To make a long story short, I have been super busy this summer. I already talked about my dog getting on in years (he is fine, taking him to the vet next week), but I also got sick and got a job. As such, I have not had much time to just sit down and get most of them done. But, I think I can get most of them done today. As a result, the front page will be updated completely soon. Ashley, Mimikyu, and Shovel Knight will all be added to the Graveyward. I personally see Captain Toad as deconfirmed but I would like some feedback on that. If you all think that the good Captain is deconfirmed I will add him to the Graveyard. Tingle could also be put in the Graveyard but due to the fact that Tingle exists in two different artstyles, I feel we can give him a pass. Feedback on that is welcome.

I go back to school on the 3rd, so I can do a lot more maintenance then. One thing I feel we could do are structured days for a week. After feedback I received from the month of rerates, I would not want to rerate too many things. As of now, candidates for a rerate include Isaac, Skull Kid, Shadow, Isabelle, Geno, and Banjo Kazooie. I also feel that given Shovel Knight's assist trophy having mixed signals for Shantae, we could rerate her. However, I want to give the floor to you guys. Do you feel that there are characters that after the 8/8 direct that we could do structured days for? If we did, we would only do 7 in order to not clog up the thread. Please below leave your feedback in the thread or PM me.

Finally, just wanna talk about the thread. To make a long story short, no I am not going anywhere. However, I do know that sometimes I might need help. In the past, I did talk to a few people about an RTC team, but that ended up not coming to fruition for the most part, mostly due to myself never following up on it. Wyoming Wyoming has been a big help with the nominations list, but I feel that I could use a couple more people to help me out in case I disappear again. So, I will reach out to a couple of people that are frequent posters in this thread who I feel would be a good fit for this. My decision making process will primarily be based on thread contributions and discussion, as I feel that that is the biggest driving force of the thread. If you feel you could be a good fit, pm me with why. However, do note that I do not want a large team. At most I would want say 6 people. As such, if you do not make the cut I do not want any hard feelings.

Kotor Kotor you lasted about ten and a half hours.
 
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Hayabusa

Chance- 50%
Want- 100%

Tecmo is probably the last big Japanese publisher not to have a rep in Smash yet. And they should, Tecmo has probably been the most supportive companies during the Wii U era and continue to do so, mostly through Warriors games.
Hayabusa himself is probably the most recognized character from Tecmo. Appearing in 2 Ninja Gaiden series, one on the NES and the reboot hack n slash starting with the Xbox. Not to mention he's a main character in the Dead or Alive franchise. And most recently you can get armor kits based off the Hayabusa ninjas in Nioh and even fight an ancestor of Ryu as a bonus boss. And has been for about 30 years now.
I will be upfront, Hayabusa has flown surprisingly under the radar of the Smash community as a whole and for whatever reason Smash fans are not Ninja Gaiden/DOA fans. And with the fan service-y tone of Ultimate, Hayabusa probably won't make it in.

That said Hayabusa is a badass Ninja with all sorts of movesets to pull from. A cool design. And the Izuna drop one of the coolest attacks in action games. He's easily my most wanted 3rd party character.

Nominations- Tora and Poppi x5
 

Kotor

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Well this is awkward.

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

I'm gonna have to hold off on giving a proper rating to the Ninja Gaiden. I've never touched the series and my only familiarity of him was through an episode of AVGN.

Nominee
Rowlet x10
 

TCT~Phantom

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Just gonna post updated scores throughout the day. Also posting previously posted ones for everyone to see Also the archive shall be up to date as well.
K. Rool
63.04% Chance (Previously 48.49%)
78.26% Want (Previously 73.57%)

Captain Toad
31.22% Chance (Previously 48.60%)
53.66% Want (Previously 58.15%)

rip

Ashley
47.83% Chance (Previously 34.00%)
58.02% Want (Previously 58.19%)

RIP

Chrom
32.07% Chance (Previously 8.18%)
36.19% Want (Previously 27.51%)

Impa
38.98% Chance(Previously 26.94%)
49.50% Want (Previously 49.08%)

Simon Belmont
59.37% Chance (Previously 16.67%)
64.07% Want (Previously 55.70%)

Dark Samus
39.32% Chance (Previously 13.04%)
44.30% Want (Previously 40.78%)

Rex and Pyra
47.67% Chance (Previously 64.69%)
51.48% Want (Previously 46.10%)

Geno
36.41% Chance (Previously 27.31%)
45.40% Want (Previously 43.75%)


Dillon

19.08% Chance (Previously 28.22%)
46.82% Want (Previously 50.34%)


Steve
17.54% Chance (Previously 22.34%)
12.38% Want (Previously 14.33%


Chibi-Robo
12.74% Chance (Previously 21.26%)
49.93% Want (Previously 55.47%)


Bandana Dee
51.83% Chance (Previously 56.64%)
62.02% Chance (Previously 71.11%)


Elma
45.13% Chance (Previously 42.60%)
47.43% Want (Previously 60.10%)

Dixie Kong
64.73% Chance (Previously 57.51%)
65.25% Want (Previously 62.93%)


Isaac
20.44% Chance (Previously 17.73%)
59.77% Want (Previously 58.60%)


Paper Mario
27.02% Chance ( Previously 32.74%)
46.42% Want (Previously 44.52%)


Celica
13.71% Chance (Previously 37.93%)
43.34% Want ( Previously 37.31%)


Shovel Knight
9.59% Chance (Previously 22.88%)
36.41% Want (Previously 45.94% )


RIP

Shantae
7.31% Chance (Previously 14.71% )
30.89% Chance (Previously 43.94% )


Crash Bandicoot
11.25% Chance (Previously 31.04% Chance)
51.10% Want (Previously 51.15% Want)


Rayman
32.52% Chance (Previously 48.49% Chance)
56.87% Want (Previously 58.25% Want)


Isabelle
53.27% Chance (Previously 46.09%)
48.27% Want (Previously 41.76%)


Shadow
35.74% Chance
25.76% Want


Octolings
23.88% Chance
47.04% want


Funky Kong
19.34% Chance (Previously 13.25%)
40.01% Want (Previously 46.37%)


Banjo and Kazooie
25.97% Chance (Previously 17.35%)
70.00% Want (Previously 61.29%)

Andy
9.27% Chance (Previously 9.49%)
47.09% Want (Previously 50.20%)

In terms of the game plan, the primary objective today is calcs. Expect the rerate calcs to be done first, with a trickle of newer calcs after. The satisfaction ratings are not a priority at the moment, so they shall be postponed for a little bit. The main goals today shall be the graveyard and chance orderings.

In terms of you guys, rated characters of Tingle and Ganon could be added to the graveyard. Also the ideas of Canon Voice lines for DK Diddy Bowser and K Rool seems dead, as does Kamek. Should those two be in the graveyard and should we shelve those days? I would allow noms to be transferred to other days for the individuals who primarily nommed those ideas.

Also, what are your thoughts of this as a fixed schedule in the future?

Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day

This rn seems like a strong fixed schedule for a week, but I could see some other characters making it. What do you guys think? Give feedback. For the record, we would do this after Scorpions Day.

Also so I don't miss out on a day.

Ryu Hayabusa

35% Chance

TBH he feels like the last missing piece for NES third party representation. Ninja Gaiden is a classic and is totally a perfect choice for representation in Smash. Koei Tecmo and Team Ninja have good relations with Nintendo, with Nintendo allowing them to make Hyrule and FE warriors. Ryu Makes a lot of sense in this regard, he's an iconic character of Nintendo history from a company that has good relations w Nintendo.

80% Want

While not the biggest Ninja Gaiden fan, I feel the series would fit well in Smash. I would love to see it due to how well it would complete the NES section of representation alongside Excitebiker.

Nominating Ninten x 5 (I dont get extra noms until I am caught up)
 

Wyoming

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Yeah sorry for not keeping up tabs on nominations on a daily basis. Since E3 I felt this game took a hit in fun. Not because of the people here, but the sparse amount of newcomer slots and echoes dominating discussion means there's far less characters with a viable chance to be discussed in interesting ways.

I'm really happy with Ultimate, mind you.
 

CaptainAmerica

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Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
I’d also consider Tails along with Shadow (even if Shadow has a higher chance, they’re both battling for Sonic rep 2) and Dixie along with Isabelle (super popular potential echoes).
Yeah sorry for not keeping up tabs on nominations on a daily basis. Since E3 I felt this game took a hit in fun. Not because of the people here, but the sparse amount of newcomer slots and echoes dominating discussion means there's far less characters with a viable chance to be discussed in interesting ways.

I'm really happy with Ultimate, mind you.
I get it. I’d love to get more concepts up. I feel there’d be more to talk about than “literally who? 0% chance/want.”

On that note...

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Nope, don’t know this one either. And he’s been around since NES?

What is it with “this character is the mascot of company X” when said character is not exactly a household name?

He seems pretty generic, especially since Sheik’s entire moveset is ‘generic ninja.’ And otherwise, I’m not really interested. I’ll take Volga from Hyrule Warriors as a Koei OC first.

Nom: I want to do a concept, but I don’t have any good ideas now, so I’ll be hypocritical and stick with Dovahkiin x10. Once I think of a good one, I’ll throw it in.
 
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Yeah sorry for not keeping up tabs on nominations on a daily basis. Since E3 I felt this game took a hit in fun. Not because of the people here, but the sparse amount of newcomer slots and echoes dominating discussion means there's far less characters with a viable chance to be discussed in interesting ways.

I'm really happy with Ultimate, mind you.
I feel similarly. It seems like anyone with even middling drawbacks has almost no chance to be playable in Ultimate. Meanwhile, the doors on other cameo appearances like Assist Trophies and boss appearances seem a lot more open after the August 8 Direct, but people have yet to be used to the idea of strongly supporting non-fighter representation.

Hope the schedule can get moving on time soon. We've had more delayed days that punctual ones this past month.
 

BluePikmin11

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When it comes to Koei Tecmo, Ryu Hayabasa is their widely known mascot of sorts. Ryu's most famous appearances is of the NES trilogy. Koei Tecmo has a close enough relationship with Nintendo helping out on titles like Fire Emblem Warriors and Hyrule Warriors that Sakurai negotiating with the company for Ryu would be relatively easy. After all, Koei Tecmo's Fatal Frame managed to get trophy content in Smash 3DS/Wii U, communication for Ryu would be just one simple step away. That said, I am unsure about him being chosen, even if his franchise is globally popular. I see bigger 3rd party IPs like Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, and Professor Layton's characters being chosen for characters before him due to those characters having notable ballot demand. That said, Ryu could still be chosen, should Sakurai aim to have a goal adding as many big Japanese third party icons as he can for Ultimate. And Ryu is one of those icons that could happen.

I do not see moveset potential as a problem, should Greninja and Sheik make it difficult for Sakurai to create a moveset. As someone who personally played Ninja Gaiden to its end on the NES mini, he has a variety of weapons that he could use that could easily distinguish him from characters of similar archetypes. Jaguar360 Jaguar360 has a solid argument on the matter, detailing the number of different weapons he could use in battle:

"Sheik and Greninja are ninjas. Do we need a another one?
  • When was having too many ninjas ever a bad thing? But Ryu has access to various tools such as the Windmill Shuriken, and bow and arrows, Various melee weapons such as the Eclipse Scythe, Kusarigama, and Nunchucks. aswell as magical Ninpo abilities. He also has unique hand to hand techniques from the DOA games such as the Izuna drop. Sheik and Greninja also currently follow the speedy combo character archetype, whereas Hayabusa can be more of an all-rounder or power character who plays much differently.
His primary weapon is a sword. We have enough sword wielders!
  • None of the sword wielders use a Katana and, as shown in DOA Hayabusa is incredibly proficient in hand-to-hand combat. His other weapon choices from Ninja Gaiden also make him unique."
Ryu Hayabasa has a decent chance of happening. I would not underestimate the character's chances.

If we can get NG music like Unbreakable Determination in Smash, that would be great!

--------

x10 Hanafuda character
 
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BlueMagician

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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 5%
We already got a new third party so it's a bit difficult for another at the moment. Ryu is a NES/Arcade era icon who survived into Dead or Alive, but I don't know how many request he got for Smash.

Want: 35%
He'd be a different ninja from Sheik and Greninja, but also fairly standard. Not that that's bad, though.


Also, what are your thoughts of this as a fixed schedule in the future?

Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day

This rn seems like a strong fixed schedule for a week, but I could see some other characters making it. What do you guys think? Give feedback. For the record, we would do this after Scorpions Day.
I have no problem with the selection itself but I think there needs to be more rerates done at once, we don't know how much time we have before Sakurai reveals the whole base roster.
 

Opossum

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Double zeroes for me.

I recognize he's an icon, but the demand is non existent and I think Simon and Richter may be our only base game third parties, unless we get Geno. Also not a fan of the character.


Reinhardt trophy x5
 

AlphaSSB

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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 1% - Always a chance, I suppose. I don't think the demand for him compares to the likes of many other 3rd Party candidates, such as Banjo & Kazooie, Ray-Man, etc. Plus, I think the only 3rd Party with a chance to join the roster for now is Geno, seeing as how Square Enix is already being worked with again to bring Cloud back. With Sakurai working with Sega, Capcom, Bandai Namco, Square Enix, and now Konami again, I'd say he's probably stretched thin with how many 3rd Party companies he can successfully make a deal with.

Want: 0% - No interest.

Nominations: All to Deconfimed Character DLC. Still don't know if it's x10 or x5 now, but whatever.
 

DarthEnderX

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Ryu Hayabusa

Want: 100%
My new #1 request now that Simon has been confirmed. Like, action platforming icons of the NES/SNES era are generally at the top of my requests wheelhouse. Pretty much anyone from Super Mario Crossover is a huge want for me.

Chance: 10%
I think he SHOULD be higher than this. He's in the same pantheon as Simon, and, unlike Simon, his franchise actually had a huge revival on more modern consoles. And he's still and active participant in his company's fighting game series. So he's not just an NES nostalgia pick.

Unfortunately, I just don't see the support for him. Don't see him on a lot of request lists. So I'm gonna have to rate his chances fairly low.
 
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The fighter known as Hayabusa

Chance: 30%
He, Mega Man and Simon are of the same kin. He’s really the last huge NES icon left. Plus I’m seeing much more demand for him now than for Simon pre-Verg.

Want: 100%
When you beat the Ninja Gaiden trilogy, it’s because you love it. If you don’t, you give up.

Nominations: NintenX5
Phoenix WrightX5
 
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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 10%
Probably the last classic NES third party left but he faces major competition from third party characters who have more popularity (Banjo/Rayman) and/or are more well known. (Leon)


Want: ABSTAIN

Punch Out newcomer x5
 
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ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 25%
one of the 3rd party classics but with current standings its really hard to say if we are going to get other 3rd parties. I did not want to give hima higher score just because with the hype and mystery behind the development times. DLC perhaps.

want: 60%
if they go with the NES one its going to be a very very technical fighter maybe even more so than sheik if he can block projectiles.

Nomination: Django x5
 
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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 15%
Want: 95%

Koei Tecmo certainly has a good relationship with Nintendo and is to me the most likely company to have a character next. Unfortunately based on the likely fact that newcomer theme for the base is fanservice(not the xtreme beach volley ball kind :p), I didn't see Ryu mentioned that much at all. But perhaps DLC will give him a chance.

Wonder Red Prediction: 6.75%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x10

For Rerates TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom , I also suggest adding in the characters with DLC Mii Costumes not confirmed yet as well.
 
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Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 20%
Want: abstain

Haven't played to any of his games, blablabla.
One thing I can say however is that, unlike all of the third-party series present in Smash, Ninja Gaiden hasn't made that much of an impact in gaming by comparison, and that might prevent him to gain in popularity among the remaining possible guest candidates.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x10

Wonder Red prediction: 13.71%
 
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Just gonna post updated scores throughout the day. Also posting previously posted ones for everyone to see Also the archive shall be up to date as well.
K. Rool
63.04% Chance (Previously 48.49%)
78.26% Want (Previously 73.57%)

Captain Toad
31.22% Chance (Previously 48.60%)
53.66% Want (Previously 58.15%)

rip

Ashley
47.83% Chance (Previously 34.00%)
58.02% Want (Previously 58.19%)

RIP

Chrom
32.07% Chance (Previously 8.18%)
36.19% Want (Previously 27.51%)

Impa
38.98% Chance(Previously 26.94%)
49.50% Want (Previously 49.08%)

Simon Belmont
59.37% Chance (Previously 16.67%)
64.07% Want (Previously 55.70%)

Dark Samus
39.32% Chance (Previously 13.04%)
44.30% Want (Previously 40.78%)

Rex and Pyra
47.67% Chance (Previously 64.69%)
51.48% Want (Previously 46.10%)

Geno
36.41% Chance (Previously 27.31%)
45.40% Want (Previously 43.75%)


Dillon

19.08% Chance (Previously 28.22%)
46.82% Want (Previously 50.34%)


Steve
17.54% Chance (Previously 22.34%)
12.38% Want (Previously 14.33%


Chibi-Robo
12.74% Chance (Previously 21.26%)
49.93% Want (Previously 55.47%)


Bandana Dee
51.83% Chance (Previously 56.64%)
62.02% Chance (Previously 71.11%)


Elma
45.13% Chance (Previously 42.60%)
47.43% Want (Previously 60.10%)

Dixie Kong
64.73% Chance (Previously 57.51%)
65.25% Want (Previously 62.93%)


Isaac
20.44% Chance (Previously 17.73%)
59.77% Want (Previously 58.60%)


Paper Mario
27.02% Chance ( Previously 32.74%)
46.42% Want (Previously 44.52%)


Celica
13.71% Chance (Previously 37.93%)
43.34% Want ( Previously 37.31%)


Shovel Knight
9.59% Chance (Previously 22.88%)
36.41% Want (Previously 45.94% )


RIP

Shantae
7.31% Chance (Previously 14.71% )
30.89% Chance (Previously 43.94% )


Crash Bandicoot
11.25% Chance (Previously 31.04% Chance)
51.10% Want (Previously 51.15% Want)


Rayman
32.52% Chance (Previously 48.49% Chance)
56.87% Want (Previously 58.25% Want)


Isabelle
53.27% Chance (Previously 46.09%)
48.27% Want (Previously 41.76%)


Shadow
35.74% Chance
25.76% Want


Octolings
23.88% Chance
47.04% want


Funky Kong
19.34% Chance (Previously 13.25%)
40.01% Want (Previously 46.37%)


Banjo and Kazooie
25.97% Chance (Previously 17.35%)
70.00% Want (Previously 61.29%)

Andy
9.27% Chance (Previously 9.49%)
47.09% Want (Previously 50.20%)

In terms of the game plan, the primary objective today is calcs. Expect the rerate calcs to be done first, with a trickle of newer calcs after. The satisfaction ratings are not a priority at the moment, so they shall be postponed for a little bit. The main goals today shall be the graveyard and chance orderings.

In terms of you guys, rated characters of Tingle and Ganon could be added to the graveyard. Also the ideas of Canon Voice lines for DK Diddy Bowser and K Rool seems dead, as does Kamek. Should those two be in the graveyard and should we shelve those days? I would allow noms to be transferred to other days for the individuals who primarily nommed those ideas.

Also, what are your thoughts of this as a fixed schedule in the future?

Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day

This rn seems like a strong fixed schedule for a week, but I could see some other characters making it. What do you guys think? Give feedback. For the record, we would do this after Scorpions Day.

Also so I don't miss out on a day.

Ryu Hayabusa

35% Chance

TBH he feels like the last missing piece for NES third party representation. Ninja Gaiden is a classic and is totally a perfect choice for representation in Smash. Koei Tecmo and Team Ninja have good relations with Nintendo, with Nintendo allowing them to make Hyrule and FE warriors. Ryu Makes a lot of sense in this regard, he's an iconic character of Nintendo history from a company that has good relations w Nintendo.

80% Want

While not the biggest Ninja Gaiden fan, I feel the series would fit well in Smash. I would love to see it due to how well it would complete the NES section of representation alongside Excitebiker.

Nominating Ninten x 5 (I dont get extra noms until I am caught up)
I agree that the canon voice thing for the DK creatures and Bowser seems dead in the water, and so doesn’t Kamek. For what it’s worth, nobody’s nominated them since the day of the Direct. Another character that could be disconfirmed is Viridi, who’s been shown in Reset Bomb Forest.
 

Erureido

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Abstaining for today since I'm not too familiar with Ryu Hayabusa.

------

Predictions

Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101): 8.15%

Doesn't seem to be relevant now despite the popularity of his game.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,480
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance - 17.5% - As far as classic NES games go, this was one of the big ones. It may not have made the splash that certain games did, but Ninja Gaiden is still remembered for teaching us how hard NES games would be, especally becasue of those darn hawks knocking us into pits one too many times. The company that owns him is also on fairly good terms with Nintendo right now. Sadly, support for him doesn't seem super-massive, so it's more up to Sakurai to reconize him.

Want - 75% - I can respect his inclusion. I'm not quite a "no third parties" guy, but I do have somewhat high standards for inclusion. He matches what I want, so I can let him in no problem.


Predictions

Wonder Red - 2.23% - The game was a flop, athough well aclaimed.


Nominations

Magolor X 10
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
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TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom in lieu of Kamek, Birdo and "Woolly World stage returns" seem like a fair replacement.

In lieu of new voices, I dunno. Just scratch the day so we can start on rerates sooner I suppose.

Give whoever nominated these things most 10 extra votes in consolation or something.
 
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Ryu Hayabusa:

Chances 5%: Even though he got his start on a Nintendo console; There are more relevant characters to add that are first party. I'd also say Banjo & Kazooie is more likely and a bit more deserving.

Want 65%: I'd really like Ryu Hayabusa but, with so few spots left; I don't think he's the best choice this time around.

Nominations:
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) 10x
 

DaUsername

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The Cooler Ryu
Chance: 5%
Not really the most popular choice for a new third party, but it's still possible.
Want: 50%
He seems like he'd fit in, but I don't really care if he gets in or not.

Wonder Red prediction: 7%
Noms: Nathan Drake x10
 

Cetus

Smash Apprentice
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Messages
190
Chance-10% Don't see this guy too much anywhere.
Want-0% I have no personal connection to Ryu or NInja Gaiden so eh...

Nominating Louie x10
 
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In regards to rerates

Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Sure I guess? I know people have been taking things as hints

Shadow
I'd recommend being rated with Ken

Isabelle
I saw someone mention being rated with Dixie, I agree

Skull Kid
Yep, by far the biggest topic of discussion since the direct and I think a day alone is justified

Geno
I don't think he really needs a day of his own, or necessarily a day at all. But if he's just here because fan favourite, then maybe couple with Bandana Dee?

Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Why?

Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
I'd like to rate them again, but I'm not sure it's really needed.




Also I'd love to see more concept nomination rise up, especially the one I'm currently nominating of no more stages.
 
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Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 5%

Ninja Gaiden is pretty notable, particularly for the NES classics, so he definitely has a little chance because of that. Not really the most requested third party though, and in general I feel like there's plenty of them that would be picked over Hayabusa, assuming we even get any more.

Want: 50%


Indifferent. Like several others before him, he's a third party I have no real connection to personally, but is a big and interesting enough name for me to say "sure, why not?"

Nominations: No More Stages x10
 
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In regards to rerates

Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Sure I guess? I know people have been taking things as hints

Shadow
I'd recommend being rated with Ken

Isabelle
I saw someone mention being rated with Dixie, I agree

Skull Kid
Yep, by far the biggest topic of discussion since the direct and I think a day alone is justified

Geno
I don't think he really needs a day of his own, or necessarily a day at all. But if he's just here because fan favourite, then maybe couple with Bandana Dee?

Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Why?

Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
I'd like to rate them again, but I'm not sure it's really needed.




Also I'd love to see more concept nomination rise up, especially the one I'm currently nominating of no more stages.
Banjo Kazooie and Steve are probably because of Vergeben being proven right on Belmont. Since he also leaked Minecraft content, a Microsoft character seems likely.
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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Ryu Hayabusa want 0% (9-10*)

I would want him more if Greninja were cut. His percentage would also be higher if it weren't influenced by the probability of him being based on games from Ninja Gaiden II onward, in which he is more violent than I want in Smash. He is also absurdly powerful in the later games, and it wouldn't make much sense for him to compete with the other characters (not that it makes sense for him to fight in DOA either).

I've heard many times (maybe from the same person?) that Ryu can do everything Takamaru can do and better. From looking over the gameplay in his games before Ninja Gaiden II, it seems like his relatively unique attacks are a sword strike that creates vacuum blades, and ninpo spells that create ice or lightning. In addition, while both Ryu and Takamaru can use fireballs as projectiles, only Ryu can use them as a revolving shield. However, I'm not aware of Ryu being able to turn invisible. In addition, I find both of their character designs fairly boring.

While it's true that Takamaru has the advantage of being first party, that should not affect want percentages.

For me, the main reasons I rate Ryu so lowly are his violence, Greninja (and somewhat Sheik) already being ninja in SSBU, and his relatively boring character design.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x10

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Ryu Hayabusa:
Chance: 10%
Ninja Gaiden has been one of those classic NES series, but sort of trailed off in popularity in recent generations of games, and Ryu (Hayabusa, not this :ultryu:) mainly shows up in Dead or Alive since they're both Tecmo/Koei games. Either way, he's an old gaming veteran and plenty of ninja skills available to him, but he's not exactly one of the most requested characters I can think of. Simply put, I don't think he's all that likely for Ultimate.

Want: 35%
Relatively neutral on Hayabusa. I've never played any of the Ninja Gaiden games. But I guess if he ever showed up one day, he'd be a neat throwback character to see in Smash Bros like Simon or Mega Man. But I don't think he's necessary.
Nominations: Gyromite Stage X5
Yu Narukami X5
 
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