Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 343 - Concept: League of Legends Character

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Erdicrk:
Chqnxe: 40%: Good rep for Dragon Quest. One problem; no one out of Japan knows Dragon Quest.
Want: Abstain: I' don't necessarily know who dis dude is.
Slime:
Chance: 35: same reason as for Erdrick. But -5% cause i don't think more generic enemies will happen
Want: 0%: Why him? he looks like Gooey but lamer.
Nominations:
Boss: Perfect Chaos x2, Hollow Knight x3.
 
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A lot of nominees have something to be grateful for after yesterday...

150 - 101

Arle Nadja x120

100 - 51

Rhythm Girl x90
Boss: Kracko x80
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x80
Grovyle x70
Kat & Ana x65
Nero Claudius (Fate) x65
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x60
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x60
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x57
Lora (Xenoblade) x55
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x55
Mach Rider x55
Concept: More DLC x55

50 - 25

Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x50
Reaper (Overwatch) x50
Professor Hector x44
Impa x37
Hollow Knight x30
9-Volt x29
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x25
Reimu Hakurei x25
Papyrus x25

Under 25

Thrall (Warcraft) x20
Creeper x19
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Andy (Advance Wars) x10
Ninten x10
Decidueye x10
Boss: Perfect Chaos x10
Blacephalon x5
Concept: Bethesda rep x5
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3

Arle Nadja busts past 100 noms.

Crossing 50 noms we have: Gen 8 Pokémon, Stages outside Fighter Pass, Nero Claudius, CGI trailers, Lora, No fan favorites, Mach Rider and More DLC. Whew.

Hollow Knight and Papyrus indie their way through the 25 nom barrier.

Our new nominee is Perfect Chaos as a boss, with 10 nominations.

AirMac1 AirMac1 Custom Moves are already disconfirmed.
 

Artix

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Erdrick

Chance: 30%
With Vergeben claiming that there's a Square Enix Rep, Dragon Quest may be one of those series that would be the Square Enix Rep in Smash and I believe Erdrick could represent DQ in Smash. However, there's just too many competition from Square itself for him to be playable, we have Sora, Geno, a Final Fantasy character and even Slime.

Want: Abstain
I really don't know much about Erdrick since I haven't played any DQ games.

Slime

Chance: 35%
Same issue as Erdrick, but I give him 5% more due to being more iconic than Erdrick. Like I said, there's just too many competition for this slime dude to be even playable in the first place. Nintendo will most likely pick a character that would sell to the fans and I don't think Slime or any DQ character for that matter, would be those character.

Want: 75%
I love Slime. He's one of the most iconic characters of the Dragon Quest franchise and I really liked him. With Piranha Plant playable, I can imagine Slime doing some silly stuff in Smash and I would like them for it.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5 (or x10 if we're still doing that)
 
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Gonna do this a bit differently than usual, starting with want, for both characters (It's the same score)

Want for Both: 50%
I've not played a Dragon Quest game, but I have some experience with the series with Fortune Street. To the point, I don't really care one way or the other. Ironically, it'd give an Dragon Ball design when people have asked for Goku. My experience with most Square titles is rather limited though...

Erdrick Chance
60% - With the mixed reaction Piranha Plant got, I'm wondering if maybe Slime might wanna be avoided, thus Erdrick might have the slightly better odds here. Plus, recalling DLC from Smash 4, most choices were humanoid, outside of Mewtwo, and you know what they say, history repeats itself...

Slime Chance
55% - While I'm curious of Slime's actual chances, I could still see him as incredibly likely. Slime is the face of Dragon Quest. And Piranha Plant, despite the mixed reactions he gave, has opened the door. Still, I don't like the idea that P. Plant and Slime, two generic enemies, have gotten in, yet Toad/Captain Toad and Bandana Dee are still MIA. Regardless, I'll get over it with time...
On another note, Slime certainly has the potential for alternate skins.

Prediction: Sora
Honestly? I don't think Sora has that great of chances, for reasons I'll get into on his day though. Regardless, I find DQ characters far more likely. 41%

Noms: Professor Hector x5
 
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Erdrick
Chance: 10%
He may be the most popular DQ protagonist but Slime is just much more iconic than him. He also doesn't look like he'd have anything that unique to him. Just looks like a generic anime sword wielder to me.

Slime
Chance: 50%
Definitely the likelier of the two. Piranha Plant destroyed the fanrule of generic enemies not being worthy as Smash Fighters. Still, DQ isn't that huge outside of the east, so it's a question if we'll even get someone from DQ.


Abstaing from want for both

Sora: 20.75%

CGI DLC trailers x5
 

zferolie

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Erdrick

Chance: 50%

I am of the mind that DQ has the most likely chance of getting into smash. SE seems to be very pick of their choices, and DQ is their biggest overwall series along with FF. I keep hearing that the licensing is a pain, but I am sure toriama would be out with a character in smash. I keep hearing people say the jusic holder is awful to work with though... but I think they may be able to get 2-3 songs only.

Off topic but seriously, I saw the Spirits list, and not a single FF rep outside of cloud, and no other SE rep. not even Agnis or Ocopath travler stuff. If Vergeben wasn't pushing a SE so hard I would doubt we would be getting any...

Anyway, back to Erdrick. He seems to be the cloud of DQ, even if his games were just the first 3. He would be another "anime sword user" but could have some unique skills tied to the game, like zap, swoosh, thwack, Gigaslash, and others.

Want: 50

I am neutral on him I;d rather have the other choice though

Slime

Chance: 75%

Personally if we get a DQ character, slime seems much more likely. He is the mascot of the series, and his face is everywhere. He has crossed over more times then other DQ characters, and has a ton of merch, so easily reconizable. Pirahna plant prooves genereic enemies are good for smash if they are reconizable in sakurais words, and no generic enemy is more reconizable then slime. He also can have a very unique moveset, as shown here by the brawl in the family creator


Want: 75%

I love the idea of slime in this game. I think he would be really fun and look great.

Nom: Pyra and Mythra(sans Rex) x 5
 
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Can we try not to bring any Ultimate spoilers in here? Some of us just want to speculate about DLC without spoiling the release, and there's more than enough designated threads for spoiler talk. If certain data affects the chances of certain characters, then maybe the schedule could shuffle a little so that only unaffected characters are discussed between now and December 7.


Erdrick

Chance: 15%
A hero with a sword and a shield, off to save a fantastic land from a terrible evil? Sounds familiar.

While I can't rely deny that Erdrick has a role similar to Marth's, we'd just gotten Sakurai on record saying that he prefers not inundating the roster with similar character choices. The moveset would be very possible, but I'm doubtful that Sakurai would prioritize him.

Want: Abstain
Have I mentioned that I've never played Dragon Quest? I certainly don't know his importance as much as his various wiki articles would suggest, but I do understand that Dragon Quest is an old franchise with a decent following.

It's also the only Square Enix property with a mainline game coming to the Switch in the foreseeable future. Almost every other SE franchise lacks that very marketing angle, and would in fact promote a competitor's console in many cases. If Nintendo has the reigns this time around, then why would they pick someone whose game wouldn't be playable on the Switch? After all, while we know Sakurai has qualms about using characters that are relatively Japan-locked, we don't know if Nintendo feels the same way either.


Slime

Chance: 55%
Slime would have had a hard time being a consideration without the precedence of Piranha Plant. But now that that barrier's out of the way, people are more readily considering the most iconic Dragon Quest character there is - a character that not only offers a unique body shape, fighting style, and character position, but is more recognized as a Dragon Quest character than any other from the series, even given the widespread appearance of slime monsters in Japanese fantasy stories.

On the flipside...it's just a Slime. You'd have to make a few more concessions to make the moveset work than simply give it differently-colored spots, since Slime variations tend to wear a lot more props. And what would Nintendo think people would take to a Slime getting into Smash, out of five possibilities? Considering the apparent effort it'd take, would a Slime really be worth it?

It's funny how we delve deeper more when we discuss Slime than Erdrick, but the fact is that one of them is simply more iconic than the other--and I firmly believe that Sakurai would rather pick the former than the latter if given the choice.

Want: 40%
Not the most interesting Square Enix rep, given the possibilities, but certainly one of the most justifiable ones. Slime would leave DLC speculation fairly open-ended if he were revealed first, since he conforms to many possible perspectives and patterns at once.


Nominations
Papyrus x5
 
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Hey guys, it's been a while... I thought given the topic I should really come and make a little post given I was probably the lead campaigner for Slime in Smash 4. Anyone from those days around?
Don't expect the same sort of epic posts today though.

I don't know where people are getting the idea that Dragon Warrior was when the series was big in the west... I mean, they literally had to give the first game away in Nintendo Power! IX and XI were both passably big, and VIII wasn't bad, but you are right that DQ has never set the west on fire... (though I have heard DQ Builders actually surpassed SE's expectations in the west, though I don't have proof to back that up) but on the other hand it's generally been Nintendo that have pushed the most to change that, handling the marketing for DQIX and the 3DS games (which no doubt helped DQXI); heck they've published DQ titles, and as before mentioned sunk the cost for the over production or Dragon Warrior 1 carts (seriously the delay on that release killed that game, though the localisation was absolutely brilliant). Nintendo have clearly shown a soft spot for DQ over the years.


Anyways, we're here to rate their chances, so here I goo!

Loto: 10%
Certainly the best pick for a human DQ character... which is to say a fairly mediocre pick overall for a DQ rep.

Want : 0%
I have a lotta love for Loto, and the big reveal in DQ3 was pretty damn awesome, especially for an NES game... but to see him instead of Slime after all my support would be pretty heartbreaking. I'd still no doubt enjoy the character given time, but man do I not want it to happen.


Slime: 45%
Yeah, I know you probably expect more from me, but I'm a realist. Sad thing is there are a lot of hurdles for DQ, and while Slime is by far the best pick, he's still held back by those hurdles. 60% across the whole series though is pretty bloody impressive, and puts it as the second most likely franchise to get a rep in DLC imo, double the third, and over 5 times the fourth.
Slime is the most iconic character, the mascot of the series, the character with the most inherently interesting move set possibilities, in every single title, even the spin-offs, has crossed over with Mario before and so many more excuses. Slime would be recognised and expressive, and a reveal trailer could make him look fun to play way more easily than any of the stoic hero types. Moreover if they're doing this to promote DQXIS and DQ Builders 2 Slime is the only sensible choice to rep both.

You cannot comprehend the true nature of Sheezey Bites' want!
My most wanted character from about 5 seconds after the Megaman reveal, and the furvor only grew more as I got into the Smash 4 speculation scene. I've really only snuck out for Ultimate speculation to bash down Katalina support (why would they pick the healer over the main character, it made no sense), but Slime has been a constant force in my Smash hype, and he is a monster that cannot be quenched until I get my hands on him and play. There are few things in this world I want more in this moment. It is a want duking it out with World Peace, 100 million dollars, and all the Nazis being driven off twitter, and putting up a seriously good fight. For tallying purpose of course read this as 100%, but please do not underestimate just how far ahead of every other character I want Slime.


As for other SE reps I'll put my 2 pennies. Sora is impossible because of Disney, Agnés has a small shot and I would be somewhat happy with, but the next most likely are Lara Croft and Crono, who have less than 10% chance each, and 0% want (though Lara would be a want for a Playstation All Stars 2 if Sony every try that again)... and yeah, I think Spirits deconfirm, and Geno was shown back in the direct so, ya know, nope.



And I suppose I should do a nomination for old times sake, even if I'm about to disappear again.... I don't see him having been done, and he doesn't have a support thread (I can't be bothered running one these days), but he atleast deserves someone noticing him on this board so:
Zhao Yun *5
 
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TCT~Phantom

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ProfPeanut ProfPeanut the thing is shuffling the schedule would in itself be a spoiler. If somehow say Mewtwo as an example has something in the data or clues or whatever and we decide to just push him sooner people might react too strongly. Emergency rerates are something I only like to do in drastic situations. For example if an assist trophy was dlc we would have ATs as fair game. Opposite wise if something is a bad sign I feel that just shuffling the character off the schedule is a poor decision. Most of the stuff in the datamine is spirits, and we did lean towards allowing speculation on them as ok.

That being said, please please please use spoiler tags everyone. If you post spoilers without tags your scores and noms will not be counted. I want people to be able to enter with a surprise if they want to.
 
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ProfPeanut ProfPeanut the thing is shuffling the schedule would in itself be a spoiler. If somehow say Mewtwo as an example has something in the data or clues or whatever and we decide to just push him sooner people might react too strongly. Emergency rerates are something I only like to do in drastic situations. For example if an assist trophy was dlc we would have ATs as fair game. Opposite wise if something is a bad sign I feel that just shuffling the character off the schedule is a poor decision. Most of the stuff in the datamine is spirits, and we did lean towards allowing speculation on them as ok.

That being said, please please please use spoiler tags everyone. If you post spoilers without tags your scores and noms will not be counted. I want people to be able to enter with a surprise if they want to.
Might as well recite what I said earlier about spoilers just so people can stay spoiler free.

Note: If you see the name "Crunchii" anywhere, avoid it. It might contain spoilers.

Another note: If you wanna talk Smash Ultimate Spoilers, please use the spoiler tags.

 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Erdrick

Chance - 0.5% - While I understand that he is the Marth of Dragon Quest, more or less, this doesn't seem like a pick that would be chosen. Unlike Marth, there is a clearly more iconic character that is seen as more of a mascot of the franchise than him. He's not as famous internationally as the one bellow. That, and he just seems somewhat lacking for a move set.

Want - 35% - While I think Dragon Quest should be represented, I don't really like him. I'm too attached to Slime for it be anyone else.


Slime

Chance - 50% - I'm almost certain that if we get a Dragon Quest character, it's them. Everyone knows the "A slime draws near! Command?" prompt, and slimes themselves are marketed up the wazoo, and are easily one of if not the most recognizable enemies in RPGs if not the world. Piranha Plant would basically go destroy most of the arguments against why Slime shouldn't be included. The only things holding them back is either Sakruai not being able to make a move set, or problematic negotiations.

Want - 80% - I feel like we should go for him. A representative of one of the most influential RPGs of all time, and one of the most famous figures in gaming. Their slimy body could do all sorts of things, not even thinking about including things from other slimes.


Nominatinos

Arle Nadja X5
 
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Erdirck:

Chance - 10%

He is pretty much the Cloud of Dragon Quest and if we get a Dragon Quest character it will be him. But after this whole ordeal with SE this time around I think only one SE character is very likely and that is Geno (yes I gave him a low rating previously but my opinion has changed). Also DQ is a copyright mess with many people owning certain aspects. Better to go with a safe pick!

Slime:

Chance - 1%

Yea, but Piranha Plant! Face it, he is the exception not the rule. Obviously we would get the most iconic protagonist before a common enemy.

Want for both will be Abstain as I have never played Dragon Quest.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 

PeridotGX

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Dragon Quest fellows (Lumping both together)

Chance: 50%. A Square exix DLC Character is basically a guarantee, and a DQ character would make sense. I don't know which one they would go for though. There are still other Square Enix characters that could happen, such as Sora or Geno, so it isn't any higher.

Want: Abstsain

Noms: Grovyle x5
 

KeyOh

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Loto/Erdrick (Calling him Loto because that's what I know him as)
Chance: 10%
If we get a human from Dragon Quest it's probably him. Loto is one of the most iconic protagonists out of the entire series and is the protagonist of one of the more well known titles. His name/title is relevant throughout the first games and he's still being referenced in modern titles like 11. He might not be making actual major appearances in modern games but Loto continues to hold relevance to Dragon Quest. He isn't exactly the Cloud of the series, but he's the closest thing it has to one. I feel like he would only happen if we were getting a Dragon Quest character and the development team specifically wanted a protagonist playable.

Want: 85%
Loto wouldn't be my very first choice if I could choose any character from Dragon Quest to add to Smash, but I'd still be incredibly happy with his inclusion. Dragon Quest is pretty much the number one game series not currently in Smash that I want to see. I don't want to say I'll take anything, but I'm confident I'd be more than satisfied with any Dragon Quest character the Smash team would implement.

Slime
Chance: 40%
At this point I think if we were to get a Dragon Quest character it would definitely be Slime. It's probably the most recognizable and iconic part of Dragon Quest. Tons of variations of Slimes have appeared in practically every title in the series and that's going to continue to happen until the games die out. Slime is the definitive mascot of the series and will most likely be one of the few things that people that aren't fans of the series will recognize. Seriously, it's the one Dragon Quest character they chose to put in a Mario sports game when they had the chance. The big argument against it was that basic enemies can't fight in Smash and now we have a standard Piranha Plant playable. I would go higher here, but I have serious doubts given what we've seen of Square Enix in the base game.

Want: 95%
Once again, Slime wouldn't be my first choice but I would not be disappointed if it were chosen to represent Dragon Quest. It has a ton of potential for a moveset and would do a great job representing Dragon Quest. I feel Dragon Quest sets itself apart from other JRPG series with its iconic monster designs, so I think Slime would be a great choice to represent the games. Like I said, I won't be too picky and I'm sure whatever the Smash team does with Dragon Quest would make me happy.
 
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Erdrick and Slime:
Chance: 20%-I'm being nice here. We know about a Square character coming, and Dragon Quest is popular, however the series isn't exactly well known for having an iconic character. I mean, yes, Slime appears frequently in stuff, but we could say the same about Chocobo, and that one barely made it as a Mii Costume in the last game.
Want: Abstain-I've never been interested in Dragon Quest, so I can't say whether I want something from it or not.
Nominations: All-guests Passx5
 
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Abstaining from Erdrick

Slime

Chance: 40%

I honestly think if Nintendo wants another Square Enix character, they'll suggest someone from Dragon Quest. It's one of Square Enix's most successful franchises overall, and it has a solid history with Nintendo. XI S and Builders 2 are also both coming, giving a good reason to want the franchise promoted here. I think Slime is going to be the pick because while it may be a regular enemy, it's by far the franchise's most recognizable and iconic character. Even plenty of non fans will likely know who Slime is. That's probably what they're going to want to go for here. I actually have Slime as my prediction for character 71, but I'm not going higher than this because there are other Square Enix options out there, and because Square Enix is Square Enix and we could very well not get a second character at all.

Want: 50%

Dragon Quest is yet another franchise that while I have no connection to it (although I hope to play it eventually), I recognize it's legacy. Slime would make a lot of sense and could fit in pretty well. I used to question it but now I'm a bit interested in seeing what they would do with it.
 

UtopianPoyzin

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Ohhhh, man...
OHHHHHH, man...
Oh, this is not good.
This is not good at all.
Guess who accidentally stumbled there way across some major spoilers?
I did!


And it's harsh. As in final boss harsh.

The final boss isn't Galeem. You clicked on the spoiler.
The song is titled "Galeem / Dharkon", leading me to believe that the latter is actually the final boss...

It started out all fine and good. I was in great spirits, because I had been constantly waiting for the time that new music would be announced. And announced it was. I was ecstatic to learn that all of my favorite songs (all of the songs) from Smash 4 would be making a comeback. It was literally music to my ears. This, coupled with "Fossil Falls" being announced as a playable song, as well as the Mega Man music more than tripling in size from the Wii U (from 10 songs to a whopping 31). The amount of new Splatoon songs revealed also was great. I never considered the music itself to be a spoiler, rather something to look forward to. After all, we WERE getting over 900 songs according to Sakurai, and I never thought anything bad would happen.

The above spoiler is where things went wrong.

Be cautious of both Crunchii and Dystifyzer; the former is very much involved in the Smash Bros Wiki, and all of the links to the Smash Bros UItimate audio clips link to what he has posted. However, he also thusly posted the information listed above. By consistently delivering quality rips of the Ultimate soundtrack (official when it comes to the Wiki), he leaked information that some of us may have not wanted to know. It was definitely all in good will, but there was indeed information leaked out in regards to s o m e t h i n g that was delivered through a song name, and apparently more bosses were leaked as well. That info I have not discovered, and I don't intend to seek until I have completed World of Light. But yeah, that was my long story. On with the rating!

ERDRICK (And Slime too)

Here we have a Dragon Quest character that people are supposed to know, but just don't. He has been a recurring protagonist in the series, yet Slime takes the spotlight when it comes to popularity. I feel like this would probably be the direction that Square Enix and Nintendo would consider when it comes to representing Dragon Quest as a fighter, because Slime is, you know, just a Slime. Famous last words, "There's no way that a generic enemy can be in Smash, much less represent a series". Yes, Piranha Plant, but I am going to go out on a limb and just say he is the last instance of such happening. At least my boy Bandana Dee has had a recurring role in the series as a unique character. Slime, too, has had a recurring role in the Dragon Quest series, but there hasn't really been a significant ONE Slime that has. Sure, Slime appeared in Mario Sports Mix and has had other skirmishes with Nintendo characters in the past, something that Erdrick has not. Yet Slime is... a slime. Erdrick, even if he might seem like a generic hero, would then have to carry the weight of an entire series behind him, and it's a series that has enjoyed a pretty large popularity (disregarding United States's sales, because they aren't something to be proud of). Erdrick, even if many can't recognize him in particular, may be carried by the series's name and come to be a character that many can associate with the series. Sure, Slime has had spinoffs of his own, and Square Enix has relished his popularity to make him the staple icon; yet, I still feel like Square Enix could flip either way with who to pick. I do think that there is a chance greater than 50% that at least ONE Dragon Quest character gets added, so chance-wise, Erdrick and Slime get the same rating...

Erdrick Chance: 30%

Slime Chance: 30%

Still, even if Square Enix and Nintendo could seem to be a coin flip away from deciding which character they should put become the Dragon Quest representative, I feel like it would be best if they split Erdrick and Slime's differences and settle for Erdrick. He would no-doubtly be the easier character to add. While I'm all for adding "WiLd AnD wAcKy ChArAcTeRs", I feel like for Dragon Quest case, it would be best to stick with something moderately easy and conformative rather than to try to make a literal slime work as a fighter, even if it receives more popularity and it can play dodgeball with a Final Fantasy Cactuar. Slime, I don't think, is the character to fighterize, even if it would shake up the typical Smash Bros. Fighter norm...

Erdrick Chance: 40%

Slime Chance: 20%

Nominations: Impa x5 or x10, depending if we get 10 noms this double day.

Now.

Rate sora predict sans, update tomorrow sometime.
Oh shoot, I had been composing this reply for a while... Does this rating still count? I started writing before RealPokeFan11 RealPokeFan11 even said anything...

And also, is there anything else in the beginning story that I need to spoilerize? Hoping that my scores can be counted...

Finally, (yeah, sorry. My obligatory new ratings comment) what all is being updated? Is it just the ratings for the last couple days, or are you updating the ratings from the base game too? Isabelle is still the second most likely character, and people such as Tetra and Thwomp have yet to be added to the list. And the archives haven't been updated for a while...
 
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Oh. Uh Spoilers. Um.

Sora:

Want: 50%. Same as Banjo,Geno,Rayman, etc. Don't care for them, but would be happy for the fans who did want them. 1 Fan fave getting in is a win in my book. Same as usual.
Chance: 5%. There aren't gonna be any fan faves, probably. Also, there are already Legal issues with SE, so having to deal with them AND Disney is gonna be hard.

Nom: No fan-faves x5
 

Sari

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Abstaining completely on Sora as I don't really know much about Kingdom Hearts. I'm not exactly sure what to make of his chances considering all the stuff about SE and Disney being so stingy, though in the end I think his chances are probably pretty low.

Sans chance prediction: 8.17%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5
 
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The company Sakurai works at

Chance: 1%. Squeenix is being a butt, and that is one of Sora's problems. But, then there's Disney, who is a company bigger than Nintendo and easily able to strongarm Nintendo into forcing the inclusion of Mickey Mouse in Smash Bros. Also, his biggest release is not coming out on Nintendo Switch, and that probably would get on Nintendo's bad side. Had Sakurai been picking the DLC, I would've given him something much higher, but I don't think Sora is somebody Nintendo will want to pick for Smash.

Chance: 45%. I like Kingdom Hearts 1 in particular and am interested in Kingdom Hearts 3. That being said, right now Sora isn't a character I find particularly interesting, since I'm mostly there for the Disney x Final Fantasy part. I understand that there's a big core fandom, though, and that Sora is first in line to represent such a big deal of a series.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x 5.

(Aww, no comic sans) Sans will have a 10% chance.
 

Cetus

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Want-50%
Eh, he'd be interesting I guess. People like Kingdom Hearts and all. Just dunno how to feel about Disney being this close to the Smash series.
Chances-30%
I can see it happening but in all likelihood maybe not. Being a Square Enix character is the only reason I'm giving him a chance.
Noms- Bethesda Rep 5x
 
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The elegant battlefield.
Sorta Disney Sora Square Enix

Chance: 10%
The way I see it, there are two camps when it comes to Sora. You either believe Disney hampers his chances, or it doesn't. I'm personally on the side of, it does. It greatly does. First, let's look at Disney and Nintendo's relationship. At one point in history, I'd say it was good. DuckTales NES graced us with the Moon theme we all remember fondly... but things change. Recently, I haven't seen Disney and Nintendo being all that close. For example, movies. Not only is there a Mario movie in development handled by... well, let's not say who it's handled by, but it's not Disney. Wreck-it-Ralph, a movie by Disney all about Video Games, only included Bowser in the initial movie. The recent movie, from what I have read, has removed Bowser, thus, Nintendo relations in this movie have been removed. Finally, Nintendo has teamed with Universal, Disney's competitor, for making a Nintendo theme park (ironic considering the Donkey Kong vs King Kong debate back in the day). Simply put, Disney and Nintendo aren't too keen on each other. Add to that that Kingdom Hearts 3 isn't coming to the Switch, yeah, Sora's chances aren't great. In fact, I'd personally put them below Geno in terms of chances. A square rep is likely, thanks to Verge, but I don't see it being Sora.

Want: Abstain
I've never played Kingdom Hearts. The only relation I have with it is various Disney franchises, and... something tells me Disney isn't the most important part of Kingdom Hearts. Or maybe it is, again, not a KH player.

Predictions: Sans
More like sans a chance... 3.01%

Nominations: Professor Hector x5
 
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Slow day today. Guess everyone was busy checking out dem datamines.

150 - 101

Arle Nadja x135

100 - 51

Rhythm Girl x100
Boss: Kracko x85
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x85
Grovyle x70
Kat & Ana x70
Nero Claudius (Fate) x70
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x65
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x65
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x62
Mach Rider x60
Concept: More DLC x60
Lora (Xenoblade) x55
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x55
Reaper (Overwatch) x55

50 - 25

Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x50
Professor Hector x49
Impa x42
9-Volt x34
Hollow Knight x33
Reimu Hakurei x30
Papyrus x30
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x25

Under 25

Thrall (Warcraft) x20
Creeper x19
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Boss: Perfect Chaos x12
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Andy (Advance Wars) x10
Ninten x10
Decidueye x10
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x10
Blacephalon x5
Concept: Bethesda rep x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3

Reaper... r-reaps 50 nominations. Jokes is hard.

Our newcomer is Zhao Yun with 5 noms.
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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Hey GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 , just wanted to ask about my nominations being missed. This time, I do believe that they should be counted, per...

7. After the day ends, participants will have 60 minutes to get final late votes in.
as a summary of the rules. Took me half an hour to write the post, and it was made 2 minutes after TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom quickly ended the day.









For some reason, I feel like I'm going to lose once again. I hope not, but it has happened too often at this point...
 
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Joined
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Messages
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Sora

For chance: I feel that with Square being pretty much a certified idiot lunatic that doesn’t want free advertising, the ball for the rumored SE rep is completely out of Square’s court and straight into Disney. As Disney fully owns Sora, they’d only ask Nomura for permission out of courtesy, and cut Square Enix out of the deal completely. Disney gets advertising for KH3, Nintendo gets to break the internet and sell a ****-ton of DLC, and Square... still gets advertising for KH3 and learns nothing. It just makes too much sense from the standpoint of a businessman.

Also, from what I’ve read people seem to think Disney and Nintendo are bitter enemies, but they’re working together on a TV show, so, y’know, maybe not.

For want: I think Geno deserves it more, but I still love Kingdom Hearts and would be ecstatic to see Sora get in. An iconic character for gaming, and it’d be a fitting farewell as his story’s ending. I’m expecting him to be pretty much the only good DLC pick. 90%

Nominations: Mach RiderX5

Hey GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 , just wanted to ask about my nominations being missed. This time, I do believe that they should be counted, per...



as a summary of the rules. Took me half an hour to write the post, and it was made 2 minutes after TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom quickly ended the day.









For some reason, I feel like I'm going to lose once again. I hope not, but it has happened too often at this point...
Oh OK, I’ll edit your noms in.
 

RileyXY1

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2016
Messages
2,400
Sora

Chance: 40%
Despite the potential legal issues involving Disney, Disney is on somewhat good terms with Nintendo, as they are cooperating on a TV Show. Sora's also somewhat highly requested in the Smash fandom. The only problem is that KH3 is not coming to the Switch.

Want: 0%
I'm not interested in Sora.

Nom: Kat & Ana x5
 
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Sora

Chance: 15%. Sadly I still don't see him in. Despite how easy it supposedly is to get him in. It's what can be used for Kingdom Hearts representation that's the problem. Disney is notorious for it's absolute control of their property in a licensing agreement when they are approached and how it should be portrayed and what of their copyrighted stuff is allowed in the collab *cough Final Fantasy Record keeper cough *. Final Fantasy's treatment is pretty bad, Kingdom's Heart would end up being worse because what Copyrighted content Disney would mandate could be in Smash. At least Cloud wasn't time limited in 4.

Want: 75% He'd be pretty cool. I played some of the Kingdom Hearts games so I wouldn't mind his inclusion.

Nominate All DLC is 3rd Party x5
 
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Sora
Chance: 1%
Square by themself is pretty stingy with their IPs, let alone Disney. A big, menacing multibillion dollar company who Nintendo probably doesn't really want to deal with at the moment. With Nintendo selecting who can be DLC, I see Sora not being amongst them.


Want: 15%
Not really against him but KH is kind of a convoluted mess of a series that I'm not that interested in diving into. And at this point, there are just other 3rd-party characters I'd prefer seeing.


sans: 4.12%

CGI DLC trailers x5
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
254
Sora

Chance: 40%
Out of all the Square Enix characters that we might get in Smash as DLC, Sora is the most likely candidate. However, due to Disney owning the character, it's going to be real hard to get him into the game. Not to mention, KH3 doesn't have a Switch port (unless they're going to announce it right after his reveal trailer), so I don't think he has anything to promote. Plus, he still has some competition with other Square characters like Geno, a Final Fantasy character (someone like Noctis) and a DQ character.

Want: 25%
I love Kingdom Hearts and as much as I like Sora to be in the game, there are other 3rd party characters that I want more than him. As for Square itself, I would rather have someone from Final Fantasy (probably Noctis or Terra) as DLC than him.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5
 
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Sora:

Chance - 5%

I already went over my reasonings why a SE character other than Geno has a low chance when we rated the DQ characters. I am rating Sora even lower due to Disney who could be tricky.

Want - Abstain

Never played Kingdom Hearts so I can not give a rating here.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 

zeonie888

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 26, 2007
Messages
86
Sora:

Chance: 1%
I feel that there's a huge hurdle to get Sora in and its name is Disney.

Want: 85%
I have played some of the same and liked how he plays and would be interested to see how he plays.
 

ZTurtle

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 5, 2015
Messages
261
Sora:
Chance: 5%
Seeing how hardball Square has been with FF content in the base roster alone already makes me skeptical (And yes, I know about Verge), but throwing Disney into the equation? Can't really see Nintendo wanting to go through that hurdle, since they're the ones deciding the DLC, and I wouldn't imagine Sora seeming like a particularly profitable choice for them since the Switch is left out of the KHIII hype. Maybe if they decided to port "The Story So Far" bundle to Switch in 2019, but that seems very unlikely at this point.

Want: 30%
I like Kingdom Hearts a lot, and Sora at least, would have an unorthodox type of blade. At the end of the day though, he does have that typical shounen protagonist look that I'm a little weary of (I'm not big on Rex for the same reason), and there are third-party choices like Geno, Crash, or Rayman that I'd prefer to see in before him. Not against him though, I'd be more surprised if anything if he got in, really.
 
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Disney Anime Dude with a sword. (REEEEEEEEEEE)
Chance: 5%
Want without Disney representation: 55%
Want with Disney representation: 0%

Sora has a lot going against him. Kingdom Hearts III isn't even on the switch, the KH games are developed by Square Enix, and Sora himself is owned by, guess what, DISNEY! We already know how stingy Square is with giving rights to use their content, (only 2 FF tracks) but Disney would be a licensing nightmare. Two major hurdles just to get one character in, would be extremely hard. As for want scores, Sora would be interesting. I've never played Kingdom Hearts, but it seems kinda cool. He is another anime looking sword wielder, but his sword is a Keyblade that can harness multiple elemental powers. He'd have a very interesting moveset. HOWEVER, what I DON'T want to see, is Disney representation getting into his moveset. I'm talking about Mickey, Donald and Goofy appearing for attacks, other random Disney characters appearing, etc. Since these are not video game characters in any way, they should not be showing up in Smash Bros. Sora is the video game character. Not the rest of the Disney cast. I am open to Sora joining without Disney representation, but the chances are very slim, unless Vergeben speaks out.
Vergeben recently stated that the Minecraft content was in the form of a boss fight. If you look at the datamine, no Ender Dragon or Wither was found in the files. Unless there's a day one patch, Vergeben has finally been proven wrong.

Predictions: Sans (oh Jesus Christ...) 10%

Nominations: Reaper x5
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
UtopianPoyzin UtopianPoyzin the update will have some stuff for base game but will primarily be for the past few days. Updating the base game is less of a priority right now given that well, it happened. The archive will be having an update soon, but it is less of a priority then current scores. I have been sitting on a decently big update, but I was just getting more scores done for it. Most likely there will be one update for the archive tomorrow and one later in December.

The other big update for the front page will be the day archive. That one will be fixed up soon as well.

Rules part will be updated to include that ATs are not up for ratings. This is after the community here voted on what would and wouldn’t be fair game. If any assist trophy gets confirmed playable, this rule is voided immediately and we will be doing emergency ratings for a few ATs after the slated week is done.

I wish I would do more informative posts about the characters rated, but to be honest our schedule has allowed me to coast a bit. Dragon quest was the only one where people in this community would go literally who. Everyone else I assume most people would know. Expect more detailed descriptions of rated characters on future days.

One thing I was interested in doing is having people post music from a series on a characters day. I will post some KH music later, and will post for most franchises during this dlc schedule, but some franchises I will be out of my element on. If anyone feels strongly about a character, please post music on their day!

Finally, the noms list will be added to the noms post soon. Probably around day 202. I am waiting to flesh it out a bit more and to shave off some more days.
 

PeridotGX

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Sorta

Chance: 30%. We kmow a SE rep is on the way, and Sora is definitly a solid contender. However they would need to go through Disney, which may be too big a hassle.

Want: Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x5
 
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