Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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Lmao just the day after Reimu's we have ZUN coming out and possibly disconfirming her.

Depending on what we find out about future DLC and when it was decided, her and Tracer are the first casualties.
I mean, for all we know she could still count for the next "season", depending on how many characters we have.

Remember that 2B was also disconfirmed before and now we have reports of Yoko Taro wanting her in Smash. My guess is that we'll only know what all of this means when so much time has passed that everyone has forgotten all about it.
 
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I mean, for all we know she could still count for the next "season", depending on how many characters we have.

Remember that 2B was also disconfirmed before and now we have reports of Yoko Taro wanting her in Smash. My guess is that we'll only know what all of this means when so much time has passed that everyone has forgotten all about it.
The Smash fanbase is great at digging up old ****, I doubt this'll be forgotten.

I hope we learn more about when the next characters get decided soon.
 
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The Smash fanbase is great at digging up old ****, I doubt this'll be forgotten.

I hope we learn more about when the next characters get decided soon.
I mean, I think we're great at using the same arguments over and over again rather than digging stuff - that's why some things weren't forgotten. I mean, MILK-Bosatsu was still getting attention even after it was proven fake.

Ah, I wanted to make this joke before the day ended:

1570992859968.png

Wanted to find a better picture, but hey, what can you do. Surprised no one posted something like this yet.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Jin Kazama

Chance - 0.5% - Sakurai has stated that Heihachi was considered before deciding on Pac-Man. While there are some arguments to be had, it's clear to me at least that Heihachi is the poster-boy in Sakurai's eyes. Unless something changes, I don't think anyone else has a shot.

Want - 40% - After Ryu's implementation, I have had a distaste for fighting game characters. I would rather not have another.


Nominations

Farmer X5
 
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Jon Who?

Chance- 0%
Everyone else has already said it, but Heihachi takes over everything Jon has going for him. When a Tekken character gets put in another fighting game, it's Heihachi. Even Sakurai has said so in a previous interview. The only way I could see it being different is if something happened similar to the KoF sending a different rep to every series they crossed over with- but Smash doesn't seem to play ball with that, since we got Terry anyway. I don't usually give out a 0%, but in this case I think it's justified. There's no way we'd get a Tekken character playable that isn't Heihachi.

...Unless we got more than one Tekken rep. But uh... No. That's not happening.

Want- 4%
I only care a little bit because of the whole concept of Tekken mechanics being implemented in Smash. I dunno how it'd happen, but it'd be cool as hell if Sakurai could figure out a way to do it. Maybe. I dunno. It also might be jank as hell. I don't care about Tekken though.

Velvet Crowe Prediction- 0.94%

Noms:
Any Grass Type Starter x 5
 

Troykv

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Jin Jazama:

Chance: 5%

Jin Kazama's case is... weird, and not for the good reasons. His franchise it's the only one that had been denied a spot in Smash Bros previously for mechanical reasons, so his apperance it can be a stretch, Ridley maybe prove it was possible to make some compromises to create a decent representation of a character, but there is also the problem Heihaichi may actually be the character to be prioritized because 1.- He is the character that appears in the crossovers 2.- He actually was previously considered for Smash

Want: 50%

I'm pretty neutral with Tekken character, so yeah sure, go for it if you can make it work.

Predictions:

Velvet: 5.4%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5
 

Neosonic97

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I don't read into what ZUN said too much tbh, but hey. I personally only take explicit deconfirmation like Hat Kid or Dante as a done deal, not playing coy and saying you would like your character in smash :ultbanjokazooie:
Exactly this. Hell, Banjo and Terry had people behind them say 'no, they aren't coming to smash', which, as we learned, was due to being under an NDA.
 
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And His Name Is JIN KAZAMA!! *cue My Time Is Now *

Chance: 14%
I'm likely not ever going to give another fighting game rep a good score, even when Terry just beat the odds. How many other fighting games are really getting into Smash at this point? Tekken has the plus of being an extra Namco rep, true, but it has the minus of having an integral z-axis in its fighting mechanics that Smash doesn't recognize.

Jin has it bad because he has to compete with Heihachi, but at least he has non-human features to make him stand out. Aside from that, he's just got the usual stuff - nothing really lacking, but nothing exceptional either. He'd essentially only get in if Tekken itself was chosen for Smash and if Heihachi wasn't chosen for some reason.

Want: 15%
On one hand, lasers. On the other hand, spammable screenwide lasers. Also he doesn't really do much for me in terms of design.


Nominations
Thrall x5
 

Sari

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Velvet Crowe

Chance: 3%
Sakurai said in an interview that Lloyd was the only choice he thought of to represent the Tales series when deciding on a mii costume in SSB4. Yes I know this interview was done before Tales of Berseria released but it still seems like Lloyd is the #1 Tales pick since he is the most popular character across the globe. Even when ignoring Lloyd, Velvet would have to compete with Yuri who is one of Japan's most popular Tales characters.

Want: Abstain
Never really got into Tales so I won't comment. I like her design though and the fact she is primarily melee based.

Adeleine chance prediction: 2.36%

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5
 

Ninjaed

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Velvet Crowe

Chance: 70%
She's the second best Tales of rep I could imagine, the first one being Lloyd of course. I'm putting Yuri in third place, yes. Her arm and fighting style in general make her pretty unique, much moreso than the other Tales of MCs I'd even say. I don't know if the souls mechanic would transfer over to smash but it's definitely gimmick material right there. If it is transferred, it'd make Velvet slightly weaker at first but if she manages to combo you, boy are you in trouble. Her arm would also give her a command grab and... seriously, the moveset just writes itself for her. The one thing that hurts her is that Lloyd is more the poster child for Tales of than she is, but she might be unique enough to compensate, as in "not a generic shounen swordsman" (which you know is what some people would say of Lloyd). Plus she's a semi-villain protagonist girl.

Want: 60%
I'm rather neutral on her inclusion. I'd be just as hyped as with Lloyd's so while there are other characters I'd rather see in Smash first, I'd certainly be glad if she did get in. Pretty certain Sakurai would be able to make her bring something new and fresh to the table, too.

Prediction: Adeleine - 0.5%
I'm not too familiar with Kirby so I had to look her up. And... no way she's making it in.

Nominations: Riesz x5
 

Neosonic97

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Veltvet Crowe

Chance: 10%
I don't see her getting in before Lloyd or Yuri. That's all I really need to say on the matter.


Want: Abstain.
I've played some Tales games, but Berseria and Zestiria are not ones I've played, so I have to abstain.
 
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Velvet Crowe

Chance: 10%
When Sakurai talked about Lloyd's Mii costume back in Smash 4 he talked about how Lloyd was the best choice available. Sure Tales of Berseria wasn't released at the time, but I doubt it would have changed Sakurai's mind about Lloyd. Besides Lloyd there's Yuri who is the most popular character of the series. He is so popular that he got banned from popularity polls since he kept winning first place.

Velvet is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Although she's from the latest Tales game, that status won't last for long since Tales of Arise is coming next year. She is not the most popular protagonist from the series nor did she get a blessing from Sakurai. I can't see her getting in over Lloyd or Yuri.


Want: Abstain
I only played Berseria very briefly and my knowledge on the series is limited. So I'll be abstaining from a want score.


Adelein chance prediction: 4.59%
Nominate: Steve x5
 

Jomosensual

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Velvet Crowe

Chance 1 - Not seeing why Crowe would get in over Yuri or the big hitter from the series Lloyd . Yuri has been highly popular for a while now. Lloyd also has the fan requests and the most ties to smash so far with a Mii Costume and Sakurai saying he's the best pick for the series. Small window because shes the newest, but I don't think thats enough to override the other 2.

Want Abstain - Never played Tales of and didn't know who Crowe was until before this

Predict - Adeleine is the type of character I said wouldn't make sense as DLC before and I stand by that. 3.16 is my prediction

Noms:
Kratos x5
 
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Velvet :198:(please laugh)
Chance: 0.1%
I'm confident that if we were to get a Tales character it would be Lloyd. Yuri would probably also get in before her. She's just not as heavily requested nor as popular as the other two retrospectively.

Want: 0%
Don't know who she is and I don't care. Lloyd would pretty much be the only Tales character I would tolerate.

Adeline: 3.82%
Rayman x5
 
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DanganZilla5

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Velvet

Abstaining because I don't know anything about her. Though it is important to reiterate Sakurai did say that he would choose Lloyd as the Tales rep.

Noms: rerate Geno x5
 
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Leather Vulture

Chance: 3%
Velvet is kind of a rising star I think. Might just be because she's the new hotness, but I've seen a lot of people around that really dig her character which leads me to believe she's bound to have some kind of staying power. That said, she's still in the shadow of Yuri and Lloyd. I haven't heard about Yuri being dethroned as the most popular Tales character, so he kinda has Velvet beat in that aspect. And Lloyd is still the most famous character from the best selling game in the franchise, plus he has Sakurai statements backing him. I can only see Velvet beating out these two because of recency and recency alone, and her window's closing in that regard. But I guess she could be Fighter No. 5.

Want: abstain
She looks cool and it was her who was my main source of interest in Berseria (didn't end up buying it because of reviews but if I did it would have been because Velvet looks cool). I can see her being pretty unique with that claw. I don't think I'd mind her, but I'm definitely rooting for Lloyd.

Noms: Prince of Persia x5
Adeleine prediction: 4.65%
 

Calamitas

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Now Caw-se for Alarm (get it because "crow")

Chance: 10%
Well. . . I had to google who she was back when we did the predictions for her, which I feel can be seen as a strike against her recognizability. From what I've gathered now, she's the protagonist of the currently most recently Tales Of game? This would mean that she could most easily be compared to Joker, and from what I gather, her game didn't exactly set the world on fire to the extent that Persona 5 did. Plus, the only names I really tend to hear with Tales Of are Lloyd and Yuri, which I assume would be picked before her.

Want: 20%
Sure, I could live with her. From what I've heard, she has some interesting weapon choice(s). Also, female fighter, that's a plus for me.

Nominating Amaterasu x5

Predicting Adeleine to be around 0.81%.
 

DrifloonEmpire

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Velvet Crowe:

Chance: 1% - I don't know much about the Tales series, but from what I've read and history of the characters, Velvet isn't the top spot for a Tales rep. I personally hadn't heard of her before this month while I knew Yuri and Lloyd for years. When selecting Smash 4's Tales costume, Sakurai mentioned that Lloyd was the most worthy rep, and if a Tales rep is chosen as a fighter I'm sure Sakurai would continue that notion. And if not Lloyd, then he'd probably pick Yuri, the most popular of the protagonists in Japan. And next year Velvet will no longer have her "newest protagonist" mantle with Arise's release. And if we end up with another Namco rep instead (since they are seemingly very conservative with their character additions), or even just see the return of the Lloyd Mii Costume, that would be the final nail in the coffin for her. She's not impossible but there is a lot stacked against her.

Want: 0% - I don't care much about the franchise, and if we do end up with a Tales rep I'd much rather it be Lloyd, since he's been requested for a long time and my best friend really wants to see him in the game. Furthermore, if we get Velvet we most likely won't get any more Namco characters, and my most wanted character is the Prince of All Cosmos, another Namco character. But hey, one of The Prince's alts would likely be his cousin Velvet, so hey, it's something xD


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5


Predictions:
Adeleine: 4.81%
 
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Kyo Kusanagi x160
Amaterasu x142
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x140
Kratos x133
[Rerate] Micaiah x130
Captain Rainbow x127
Lara Croft x125

150 - 101

Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x123
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x120
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
9-Volt x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Blaze the Cat x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Prince of Persia x80
Proto Man x75
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x75
X (Mega Man) x68
Concept: Any grass-type starter x65
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x65
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Thrall (Warcraft) x50
Sol Badguy x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x40
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Riesz (Mana) x35
[Rerate] Sora x30
Ryo Hazuki x30
[Rerate] Heihachi x30
[Rerate] Steve x25
Concept: League of Legends rep x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Geno x20
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x20
Earthworm Jim x19
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x15
Akira Howard x15
[Rerate] Dante x12
Chun-Li x11
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x11
Giygas x10
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x10
King Boo x10
[Rerate] Rayman x10
Sackboy x10
Urbosa x9
[Rerate] Quote x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Monokuma x4
Black Shadow x2

Kratos climbs past Micaiah and takes fourth place from her.

Blaze the Cat dashes past the 100 nom mark.

Heihachi leaves the under 25 club.
 

SKX31

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Velvet Crowe:

Chance: 7 %

Yea, we know the drill. Lloyd is the frontrunner, and Yuri has the fan backing in Japan and is my favorite Tales of protag (Yuri follows the holy words of George Lucas: Spinning is always a good trick. Especially with swords.). Yeah, Velvet doesn't seem to have the fan backing or the real notability. But if Sakurai wants a semiunique moveset (I get the impression that the Tales of series does have unique attacks and so on) while introducing a new character, Velvet could be a great pick from that sense.

That'd mean Sakurai discarding his usual ways of choosing third parties, so not likely. But I'd not discount the possibility either.

Abstain on want, since I haven't played any Tales of games.

Noms: Lara Croft x5

Predictions: Adeleine 3.8 %
 
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BowserKing

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Velvet Crow

Chance: 10%. Chances are, Lloyd is more likely to be in, but who knows. Competition is the main concern for her as well, but we have been surprised before.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, which is a good thing. Since I don't know too much about this franchise, that is all I'm going to say for that.

Noms: 2 for Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool and 3 for Concept: Any grass-type starter
 

chocolatejr9

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Abstain. I've never played a Tales game. Plus, apparently Sakurai said Lloyd would be the best choice for a Tales rep, though I could be remembering that wrong.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

Troykv

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Velvet Crowe

Chance: 10%

The character benefits mostly of the fact we know "Tales of" is definitely in Sakurai's radar, and any popular recent game from this franchise deserves their fair chance. The problem is like in previous days, heavy competitions against people Sakurai has already talk about (in this case Lloyd), and we even now about the possibility of Yuri being the choice because of the character's popularity.

Want: 51%

I like the design :D Not personal connections otherwise.

Predictions:

Adeleine: 3.89%

I'm sure this will feel like a preview for the Micaiah day for me... hehe *dies*

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5
 
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Velveeta Dream

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Velvet Crowbar

Chance: 30%

For today, I'm not going to include anything in regards to the Tales of Series trademark since that could be for something that isn't Smash related like a mobile game.


I don't really know much about everything relating to Tales, and we all know that 1 interview Sakurai had about Lloyd in the past would seem like the biggest chink in the armor for Velvet. However, I think she has a much greater chance in Smash than Lloyd and Yuri because of recency, especially with Joker from the latest Persona game in Smash and Hero's main appearance being the Luminary from DQ11 in Smash. While it may not be the highest selling Tales game, Berseria did apparently sell over 1 million copies which is pretty good, albeit they reached that number 2 years after the game was released. The only things that stifle her chances are if Sakurai still considers Lloyd the only viable Tales candidate for Smash, which we don't if that's still the case after all these years since Sakurai did make Ridley playable sometime after saying he was too big, and if there's any other Bandai-Namco franchises Sakurai's looking to include before Tales.

Want: 60%

Since I know very little about Tales, I have to go off of character designs to see if they look cool to me. Lloyd and Yuri don't do it for me in that department, but Velvet sure does. She has the most striking appearance while the other guys don't, though her clothing will probably get the biggest nerf if she is in Smash, and while I have no idea how she fights in the game, a blade on the forearm and a demonic arm look like they make for a pretty cool moveset to me. Overall, Velvet is the only character from Tales I'd like to see in Smash.

------------------
Predictions:
Adeleine: 0.89%

------------------
Noms:
Zhao Yun x5
 
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Lady Calamidad:
Chance: 10%-Berseria hasn't been the most recent Tales game in years. Then there was that comment Sakurai made on Lloyd and the fact that Velvet herself just ranks on popularity polls but not enough to dwarf him, Yuri or some of the other MCs like Leon Magnus.
Want: 40%-I've seen what she can play like and on that regard I've got no complaints (Rugal-esque slash kicks, fire moves and deadly claw, pretty fun if you ask me). Usually I try to avoid bringing unrelated gripes when it comes to judging characters, but in this case, I can't do that. I know she's likely gonna get some censorship if included because of CERO, but this woman's outfit is just way more skimpy than anything else in Smash that you can't make a slight change like with Palutena or put a black hole on her like Peach. I know someone here made a mock-up that doesn't compromise too much of her design, but people are gonna still notice the censorship, and because of my past experience with the likes of Censored Gaming, I'd prefer Smash to not give them anything that can make them money.

Nominations: Dante x5
Prediction: Adeleine 2.58%
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
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Jul 9, 2018
Messages
252
Velvet Crowe

Chance: 10%
I highly doubt they would get Velvet over Lloyd or Yuri to represent Tales. Lloyd is the frontrunner of the Tales series and is the most likely to get in due to Sakurai's comment about him. Yuri, on the other hand, while not as likely as Lloyd, has popularity backing him up as he's popular in Japan. For Velvet, aside from being recent, there is nothing going for her and I highly doubt they would pull another Joker situation with her (especially since Sakurai already stated he wants Lloyd).

Want: 25%
I don't know much about the Tales of Berseria so I have no attachment to Velvet, but I'm liking her design. But we all know Lloyd would get in as the Tales rep in Smash and if not, then Yuri is next in line. She's not even my most wanted character and I'd rather have other characters I wanted to get in Smash first before her.

Prediction:
Adeleine - 4.19%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5
 
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Double 0
While I do think Tales has a chance, no way its not Lloyd. And that's even if we get a Tales character to begin with. Namco has a number of big franchises that they could get instead like Digimon and Tekken. As for want, I have no connection to it, and I just want some more Nintendo characters.

Nominate no more stages after the pass.

Prediction 4.3%
 
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Akechi in Igor's Room (This will fly over most people's heads.)

Chance: 25%. I think of her as the third-wheel candidate of the great Tales race, having the power of being the most recent and debatably most immediately unique moveset compared to Lloyd and Yuri. Thing is though, Yuri is arguably more relevant and certainly more popular, and Lloyd dominates fan support in the Smash scene while also having Sakurai's blessing. And, being mostly known for fist combat, there is the chance she could be a Mii Costume that comes alongside Lloyd or Yuri instead.

Want: She looks cool, she has cool moves, but would she be fun to play? Normally I'd abstain here... but if my experience with Tales of Symphonia is anything to go by, ANY Tales rep would feel right at home in Smash and play like a love letter to their games. So, 25%, since she's not Lloyd but it's better than being not-Arle.

Speak of the devil, Arle Nadja x 5. Adeleine heavily depends on where the DLC goes from here, but honestly, it looks bleak for her. 3.95%.
 
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Velvet Crowe

Chance: 20%

Tales IMO is very likely Fighter Pass #5 or after it. The latest protagonist of the Tales series(before Arise releases). And the first sole female protagonist. She's pretty much the third of Tales trio(Lloyd, Yuri, and Velvet). She may not have the chance that Lloyd has but she shouldn't be underestimated as she has her demon arm to add to her moveset along with the combo tree system a Tales character would have.

Want: 100%

One of the two Tales characters I want with the other being Lloyd. It helps thar she would be both a Namco and female rep as well.
 

Flyboy

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Velvet Crowe
Chance: 25%
A Tales rep is likely. I don't believe the copyrights that were filed are Smash-related but it just makes sense to me, and from there I see it as a toss-up between Lloyd Irving, Velvet Crowe, and Yuri Lowell. Sorry, Ludger fans. Like me. I'm the Ludger fan.

Anyway, Tales is one of the Big Three JRPG series' with Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest (and hey, Persona is muscling in to possibly create a Big Four) and is one of Bamco's premiere series along with Tekken. I really feel that a rep from a series with such longevity is very possible, especially when you consider that Lloyd was already a Mii costume last game and has had fan requests since Brawl.

Velvet herself has less of a chance than Lloyd, and I recognize that. Luckily for me I like them both!

Also, I'm just gonna say, it's funny seeing people claim that they always knew who Yuri was before the Vesperia port considering it was a weird Xbox-only release for a while there and it wasn't until "Brave" and the port that people started considering him but I digress.

It's a toss-up right now. I'd say Velvet is solidly in the middle between Lloyd and Yuri, with Lloyd being the most likely but Velvet has recency and being a super unique and recognizable protagonist of one of the best recent Tales games on her side.

Want: 100%
The thing is, my last point is my biggest - Velvet is unique as ****. Unlike Yuri who uses a katana or Lloyd who uses a dual sword, Velvet has a ****ing demonic hand. Like no offense to Lloyd fans, but as much as I love the guy's spells and cool moves, you're not gonna get cooler than a demonic hand that consumes people.

Velvet is a badass. Her whole village was sacrificed in a dark ritual and she was tossed into prison for years where she fostered hatred and the desire for revenge, her old villager outfit rotting away over the years as she struggled to escape and get revenge on the ones who ruined her life. She's a much darker protagonist than your usual Tales fare, and Berseria itself is a polished and gorgeous game. And then she becomes part of a ****ing pirate crew! How cool is that? She gets to team with dragon people, holy warriors, fellow prisoners, and then go on a heartrending and fascinating journey across the world leading to plenty of great twists and turns.

She's awesome. Berseria is awesome. She's my most-wanted Tales rep by a mile (sorry Lloyd). She's interesting, can be funny due to her interactions with her crew mates (like Magilou - love you Magilou) and again she has a demon hand. She'd be such a fun Tales protagonist and she's immediately captured the minds and established herself in the protagonist gang just by virtue of being so cool.

I really hope Berseria gets a Switch port one day. I'd love to play that on the go.

Nominations: Heihachi x5
 
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Velvet Crowe
Chance 50%:Velvet is in case of maybe because sakurai has choose Joker(Persona 5) and Luminary(Dragon Quest 11) both of them are from the latest games of their respected franchises but at the same time consider that sakurai has said if there was a tales rep would be Lloyd, makes Velvet pretty much in the middle.
Want abstain: like I said about Lloyd and Yuri I never played the tales of games to give an want opinion
Predictions:
Adeline:2.60%
Nominations:Brain(Quest 64)X5
 
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