Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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Over Rated:
1. Ryu Hayabusa
First of all, what was the argument for Ryu Hayabusa? I really haven't seen an argument for him (granted I haven't looked that hard either tbh). I just keep seeing his name pop up on leaks. Secondly, would Ryu Hayabusa sell well? Personally I hadn't heard of him or Ninja Gaiden until he started popping in leaks. After doing a little bit of research, it looks like he's a Sega character and that brings me to my next point. His inclusion goes against Mii Costume theory. So far I have no reason to doubt Mii Costume theory's validity, and Hero looks like he's going to strengthen the theory. Without any reasons to not believe Mii Costume Theory, I don't see why he's at a 47% chance score. Should be no higher than 15% imo, although I'm no expert on his series so I could be wrong and overlooking things.

2. Bandana Dee
This character needs a re-rate badly. First, we have Mii Costume Theory which I won't spend too much time on, just did that above. Secondly, it appears the DLC fighters will have DLC spirits as well. What other spirits could you get from the Kirby series? Kirby already has 59 spirits in the game. Speaking of spirits, Bandana Dee is a spirit himself and spirits de-confirm. He should be at a 0% chance, his only shot was the base roster.

3. Jibanyan
Not a whole lot to say about Jibanyan. Most of the cases against him are similar to what I posted about Ryu above. Not a super well know character, goes against Mii Costume Theory, doesn't have anyone leaking him though. I also believe the best chance for Jibanyan was the base roster, but since Yokai Watch has no presence in smash yet, I'd leave him at 5%

Under Rated:
1. Phoenix Wright

1. He's from Capcom, he would fit with Mii Costume Theory
2. He was a decently popular character around the smash ballot so he could have got votes there
3. He just got his first 3 games on switch
4. He's been in another fighting game in Marvel vs Capcom



2. Tetromino
While Tetromino seems like a troll pick (and yeah, he kinda is) it's not the stupidest pick in the world. Tetris is one of the most well known games in the world. Sakurai loves his troll characters too. That being said, there's a lot going against Tetromino and it would be a better base roster character as a paid troll character wouldn't go over as well. Maybe bump him up a percent or 2.

3. Maxwell
While Maxwell does have a lot going against him and shouldn't be rated super high, does have some things going for him
1. Even though he's a 2D character, that works for Mr Game and Watch
2. Massive moveset potential. Literally anything could show up as a part of his moveset. His Up B could be anything from a jetpack to a helicoptor to a UFO for example
3. He has history with Nintendo. The first 2 scribblenauts games are on DS, and the newest scribblenauts released in 2018 game is on switch

Noms: A League of Legends rep x5
 
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Also Bandana Dee is no way a 0%. At least a 20%.
Also, there are a BUNCH of possible Kirby spirits, just here is a list.
Dark Meta Knight, Adeline, Ribbon, 0, 02, Void Termina, Taranza, President Haltman, Nova, Star Dream, the Squeak Squad, Lololo and Lalala, etc.
and a ton of Kirby music and a stage are easy. Kirby is actually really underrepresented considering a good amount of spirits are enemies and Mario, Zelda, Pokémon, Fire Emblem, and probably others have way more spirits and stages and characters.
 
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1. Ryu Hayabusa
First of all, what was the argument for Ryu Hayabusa? I really haven't seen an argument for him (granted I haven't looked that hard either tbh). I just keep seeing his name pop up on leaks. Secondly, would Ryu Hayabusa sell well? Personally I hadn't heard of him or Ninja Gaiden until he started popping in leaks. After doing a little bit of research, it looks like he's a Sega character and that brings me to my next point. His inclusion goes against Mii Costume theory. So far I have no reason to doubt Mii Costume theory's validity, and Hero looks like he's going to strengthen the theory. Without any reasons to not believe Mii Costume Theory, I don't see why he's at a 47% chance score. Should be no higher than 15% imo, although I'm no expert on his series so I could be wrong and overlooking things.
Ryu Hayabusa was being discussed before the leaks. Ninja Gaiden is a legendary NES franchise, considered one of the best and on par with titans like Mega Man and Dragon Quest. He's not a Sega character and I think he'd sell pretty well.
 
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Apologies for the double post.

Spyro x140
Morrigan Aensland x140
Crono x125
Kyle Hyde x120
Heavy (Team Fortress) x116
Saber (Fate) x112
Kamek x111

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Ellie (The Last of Us) x100
Rundas x95
Boss: Kracko x92
Ninten x90
Frogger x85
Concept: Valve rep x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x68
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Specter Knight x62
X (Mega Man) x53
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
Terry Bogard x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
Decidueye x47
Captain Rainbow x45
Blaze the Cat x43
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x35
Brian (Quest 64) x32
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Concept: More Bosses x30
[Rerate] Micaiah x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Earthworm Jim x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Johnny Silverhand x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Marx (Kirby) x9
Toon Zelda x8
Magolor x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Heavy and Saber pass Kamek. Heavy takes fifth place and Saber settles for sixth.

Today's newcomer is a rerate of Reimu Hakurei, with 3 nominations.

And yeah, it's settled, with 5 noms, Slime is disconfirmed. RIP my baby rocket.

Also to avoid double posting again I'll do my over/underrated

Overrated

Lloyd Irving
Seriously, 50%? That's way too high for a character with the strong competition he has and from a company that might choose to not get another character in.

Elma
Has the same problems as any other first party character plus a couple of her own, so I think 20% was excessive.

Monster Hunter
Rathalos was in base game. If Monster Hunter were to get in he'd have gotten in base game or Rathalos would have been kept out.

Bonus answer

Joke reps (Tetromino, Magikarp, Freddi Fish)
These all got higher than 0% which is really what they merit.

Underrated

Heihachi
Now I don't think his chances are great, but 7% is too low. He's still the top dog at Bandai Namco. Sakurai has mentioned considering him. If Sakurai feels like Heihachi can't be done yet out of respect for his last VA, then I think he'll just eschew the Bamco rep altogether.

Ezio
I get that, being mostly Nintendo fans, the success of Assassin's Creed and its impact hasn't been felt so strongly by you. But Assassin's Creed has sold over 100 million units. That's more than Zelda. No way Rayman ever gets in over Ezio.

Nathan Drake
Even with the huge obstacle of being a Sony character, lowest rated third party is just too low in a list that contains Nero Claudius and Katalina.

Bonus answer

Phoenix Wright
At this point I'm feeling quite confident in his inclusion over Jill/Leon (they're the only competition really). However I wouldn't say he's that underrated as 30% is a pretty healthy score all things considered.

(Just to be clear the non-bonus answers are the real ones)

I didn't go with obvious characters like Steve or 2B, that were disconfirmed or soft-disconfirmed later because, well, at this point it doesn't make sense to rerate them when all the posts would be stuff like '1% disconfirmed by dev' or '1% won't be another X rep'.

Noms: Kyle Hydex5
 
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Removed Freddie fish from my post and shoved up Celica and 2B to 1 and 2 each. Also added Tracer as the number 3 spot.

I also just realised all my Bandana Dee noms would go to waste if we ended up rating him regardless... whoops.
 

Ornl

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Most overrated
I rounded to 0.5 decimal.
- Steve 55.5 (license conflict with Banjo),
- #1 Crash rerate 52 (genre conflict with Banjo),
- #2 Lloyd 51 (genre conflict with Hero, was fired from Sm4sh instead of evolving as Rathalos),
- Ryu rerate 47 (+37% partly relying too much on the Fatal Frame rep),
- Master Hand 33.5 (based on a joke about Melee bug),
- Monster Hunter 31 (series already represented by Rathalos),
-#3 SNK rep 25 (the compagny can't provoke any general enthusiasm),
- Rayman 37 rerate 24 (genre conflict with Banjo + Spirit + Brawlhalla),
- Ezio 22 (partly relying too much on the fact that Ubisoft isn't represented by Rayman),
- 2B 21.5 (no link with Nintendo),
- Tracer 19 (no link with Nintendo),
- All non-pillars: Bandana Dee 55.5 - Edelgard 26 - Cecilia 24 - Dixie 22.5 - Geno rerate 22.5 - Elma 20.5 - etc. There is no valid reason that explain why they would bea in DLC.

Most underrated
None, I don't consider that there is underrated character.

Nomination : Jin Kazama x5
 
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Neosonic97

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
196
Most Overrated

#1: Steve (Minecraft)
We already have a Microsoft rep. Need I say more?


#2: Lloyd Irving (Tales series)
Lloyd kinda missed his chance. I'm a firm believer that if we were getting Lloyd, it would be as a base roster character.


#3: Bandanna Waddle Dee (Kirby series)
Look, I wanted Bandanna Dee as much as the next guy, but even I can see right now that he's probably not getting in. Spirits are pretty much a hard deconfirm for DLC.


Most Underrated:

#1: Reimu Hakurei (Touhou Project)
Especially with the announcement that Antinomy of Common Flowers is on its way to the Switch, there really is no reason to not include Reimu any more. She literally just blew up the last real complaint people could level against her being in Smash, that being a lack of official appearances on Nintendo Consoles. We've had characters requested who are equally, or even more niche than Reimu. (Say what you like, Golden Sun was a niche game), so I definitely feel that her chance should be higher. Honestly? She's actually in a pretty similar situation to Crash now.


#2: Yuri Lowell (Tales series)
It was my opinion that Yuri and Lloyd were in stiff competition for being a Tales rep, and that Lloyd would be a character in the base roster if he got in, and if not, then Yuri would be DLC to coincide with Vesperia Definitive.


#3: Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo series)
Given that a Tetromino is basically outta the question by virtue of being an inanimate object, Arle is pretty much the next best thing (Given that Puyo Puyo is the OTHER example of a falling blocks puzzle game [There's a reason why Puyo Puyo Tetris exists, after all!]).


Noms: Saber (Fate) x2, Reimu Rerate x3
 
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StormC

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Ezio
I get that, being mostly Nintendo fans, the success of Assassin's Creed and its impact hasn't been felt so strongly by you. But Assassin's Creed has sold over 100 million units. That's more than Zelda. No way Rayman ever gets in over Ezio.
Ehhhhhh I don't really agree with this argument. It's the same as Mega Man vs. other Capcom series and Banjo vs. other Microsoft series. Rayman is the one Smash fans actually want (although I think the chance of a Ubisoft character is low regardless). I wouldn't say "no way."
 

BowserKing

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My choices

As much I don't want to say it for the overrated side

Overrated 1: Fighter's pass all being Third Party. As much as I want Steve from Minecraft, I want some Nintendo characters for the fighter's pass. My main choices include Adeleine and Midbus, to bring variety to the Smash Bros. Having the fighter's pass all be third party would be strange since Nintendo themselves choose those characters.

Overrated 2: Claims that Assist trophies (and Pokeball Pokémon) are bad. I know some of you are mad when your most wanted got disconfirmed as assists. Sakurai is saying that those items make them guest stars and bring variety, but some people are still upset about it. At least some assists and Pokeball Pokémon can get promoted in the next game (shown with :ultcharizard::ultlittlemac::ultdarksamus::ultisabelle:)

Overrated 3: That's all I got (There I'm not showing what characters I think are overrated choices, to make things a bit peaceful)

Underrated: the Side I prefer (Note, these characters are more likely to appear in the next game, and seem unlikely for Ultimate.)

Underrated 1: Lugia. Not a commonly requested Pokémon, despite being a Legendary. While Lugia has been disconfirmed, Lugia could have a chance for the next game.

Underrated 2: F-Zero Rep: We still only have one Rep from this franchise, being Captain Falcon. If we get another character (in the next game), I could choose either Jody Summer, Bio-Rex or Black Shadow, but these are just my choices.

Underrated 3: Dark Bowser as a Bowser Echo. Many of you prefer Dry Bowser, but honestly I rather see Dry Bowser as an alternate costume. Dark Bowser would be a character representing the Mario and Luigi RPG, mainly Bowser's Inside Story. But, while he does not have a spirit, Echoes cannot be in the fighters pass, so next game is the most likely one.
 

Ultomato

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Most Overrated:

Steve
We already have another microsoft rep, which in my opinion was alway the far more likely one (Heck, I put a bet on it).

Master Hand
Why does he have such a high rating wtf

All DLC is Third Party
I hope this counts but it was in the list so hey. This got probably the highest score out of every character or concept and I dont know why. People really, really hold on to this idea because they really, really want it to happen. But what evidence do we have? DLC wasnt only third party last time. It was mostly. Off course all the dlc we have so far is third party, The very first dlc HAS to be hype and you cant go to the biggest conference of the year without your hypest character. I think people are really jumping the gun here.

Most Underrated:

Sans
He isnt very likely but he got a really low score, even though the case for Undertale is... well not strong but there is a case. I'm not saying he should be a high score. Just that he should be higher.

Phoenix Wright
Were probably getting a capcom rep and out of all the popular capcom franchises, Phoenix has been the most requested in the past and has the most connection with nintendo.

Hollow Knight
Same as with Sans basically. Nintendo likes thier indies and Hollow knight is the biggest indie seller

Bonus round: Sylux
He wasnt in phantoms rating list post, but I believe hes been rated at some point. Ive noticed several people mention him as overrated anyway. I have no idea what his rating was but based on common opinion, people dont seem to understand his case. I think he has a very good shot. He was the character the head developer of the Prime series has said he wanted to use if he ever were to make a sequel as far back as 2008. He had more personality than the other hunters in the ds game, had a cameo in Prime 3 and Federation Force. The developer who said he wanted to use Sylux came back to that when Prime4 was announced, pretty much saying "Oh he'll definitely be there!". The delay is not an argument because the dlc would have been picked way before that happened. If he was chosen, he'll probably be the last since its gonna take a while to get MP 4 back on track.

And yes, if this is your legacy as a character, even if its not a big legacy, it is weird if your spirit is missing. really ****ing weird.
 

TCT~Phantom

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My choices

As much I don't want to say it for the overrated side

Overrated 1: Fighter's pass all being Third Party. As much as I want Steve from Minecraft, I want some Nintendo characters for the fighter's pass. My main choices include Adeleine and Midbus, to bring variety to the Smash Bros. Having the fighter's pass all be third party would be strange since Nintendo themselves choose those characters.

Overrated 2: Claims that Assist trophies (and Pokeball Pokémon) are bad. I know some of you are mad when your most wanted got disconfirmed as assists. Sakurai is saying that those items make them guest stars and bring variety, but some people are still upset about it. At least some assists and Pokeball Pokémon can get promoted in the next game (shown with :ultcharizard::ultlittlemac::ultdarksamus::ultisabelle:)

Overrated 3: That's all I got (There I'm not showing what characters I think are overrated choices, to make things a bit peaceful)

Underrated: the Side I prefer (Note, these characters are more likely to appear in the next game, and seem unlikely for Ultimate.)

Underrated 1: Lugia. Not a commonly requested Pokémon, despite being a Legendary. While Lugia has been disconfirmed, Lugia could have a chance for the next game.

Underrated 2: F-Zero Rep: We still only have one Rep from this franchise, being Captain Falcon. If we get another character (in the next game), I could choose either Jody Summer, Bio-Rex or Black Shadow, but these are just my choices.

Underrated 3: Dark Bowser as a Bowser Echo. Many of you prefer Dry Bowser, but honestly I rather see Dry Bowser as an alternate costume. Dark Bowser would be a character representing the Mario and Luigi RPG, mainly Bowser's Inside Story. But, while he does not have a spirit, Echoes cannot be in the fighters pass, so next game is the most likely one.

Please rate stuff we actually rated as overrated underrated please.
 

Tetrin

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Hollow Knight
Same as with Sans basically. Nintendo likes thier indies and Hollow knight is the biggest indie seller
New game is also coming out in the future; would serve as great promotion for the game to add either the Knight or Hornet, especially since Silksong is starting out as a Nintendo exclusive. Just saying.
 
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Underrated: Both Undertale characters (Sans moreso, but after Hero I think Frisk deserves more credit too) and Ezio, Ezio being the most underrated.

Sans is the Pikachu but Frisk is the Hero (in the fighter sense) of the game. Both of them have valid reasons to be included: Sans is much more popular, but he can't carry over the feeling of playing Undertale the way Frisk can. However, that doesn't change the fact that Undertale (and it's gameplay!sequel/story!AU Deltarune) are among the biggest indies in the world, with content from it being among the most popular on YouTube from 2015-2016, and even though it isn't as popular as it used to be the game still retains massive popularity. We know Toby Fox is okay with putting spoiler content in crossovers (thanks, Groove Coaster), so that being held against them is strange. Both of them are valid characters.

Ezio on the other hand? Honestly, I think he was ridiculously, comically underrated. "Never getting in before Rayman?" My god, I'm a bigger fan of Rayman but I'm not going to act ignorant and pretend Assassin's Creed isn't the much bigger series. He was at least possible and has a chance. I'm not saying he was likely, but he was easily the character who was the most underrated simply because most who voted on him were people stuck in the Nintendo bubble. Sure, Rayman might (that's quite the might, I think it's very contestable) be more likely, but Ezio is not a nobody. His score I remember being worse than 22%, though I did remember seeing a bunch of people saying he was not happening for sure before Rayman. If anything, he has more to fear from the Rabbids than Rayman, loathe as many are to admit it.

Overrated: Bandana Waddle Dee and Steve. BanDee objectively, but Steve is I think more interesting. I can't really think of a third thing: Spirits not disconfirming I'm not sure counts, and if we do rate without Spirits we don't have a lot left for First Party characters. You can ping that as my third thing if it counts, considering we rated it in the DLC season, and I do think the evidence that they did was totally ignored back then by people who really didn't want to see it that way and clung to them being the new Trophies like it was their life.

Bandana Waddle Dee's score was based on a mistaken claim that he didn't have a Spirit, was made when the Spirit debate was primarily on "didn't disconfirm" anyway, and came at a time when we didn't have Joker, thus believing him to be a near certainty because we mostly believed in a first-party exclusive/primary pass. I think his case is pretty obvious. I think Rayman had it too good as well, but I don't have as much to talk about. He's literally the same case as Bandana Dee.

Steve... many had considered him as good as leaked. We were all very sure Banjo was not going to happen, at if I do remember correctly Hitagi was the hot new leaker that even had Vergeben support, so we pretty much saw him as a lock. Looking back, I think that Sakurai would probably run into Heihachi-esque trouble when it comes to making the moveset: how to carry the feeling of playing Minecraft into Smash sounds like it could at best be rather tricky and at worst a herculean effort relative to other potential newcomers.

More Bosses x 5.
 

DaUsername

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Overrated
1. Steve
Banjo is in. I shouldn't need to elaborate on this any further.
2. Celica
Her only reason for being in Smash is about to be irrelevant in two months. Also ner franchise already has 7 characters.
3. Undertale rep (and by extension Frisk and Sans)
If having one moderately successful game is all it takes to get into Smash then we're no better than PlayStation All-Stars. But I know I'm talking to a brick wall here since everyone else has fallen for the Epic Funny Sans meme.
"Honorable" mentions:
-Tracer
-Ezio
-Monster Hunter
-Any Square characters
-Any Microsoft characters
-Any characters literally owned by Sony
-The Assist Trophies
-And, as much as I want him, Bandana Dee

Underrated
1. Doomguy
Imaginary rules preventing him from getting in (characters using normal guns, western characters) have been made irrelevant by Joker and Banjo. So this guy could use a boost in chance.
2...
Actually, that's all I can think of.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Overrated
1. Steve
Banjo is in. I shouldn't need to elaborate on this any further.
2. Celica
Her only reason for being in Smash is about to be irrelevant in two months. Also ner franchise already has 7 characters.
3. Undertale rep (and by extension Frisk and Sans)
If having one moderately successful game is all it takes to get into Smash then we're no better than PlayStation All-Stars. But I know I'm talking to a brick wall here since everyone else has fallen for the Epic Funny Sans meme.
"Honorable" mentions:
-Tracer
-Ezio
-Monster Hunter
-Any Square characters
-Any Microsoft characters
-Any characters literally owned by Sony
-The Assist Trophies
-And, as much as I want him, Bandana Dee

Underrated
1. Doomguy
Imaginary rules preventing him from getting in (characters using normal guns, western characters) have been made irrelevant by Joker and Banjo. So this guy could use a boost in chance.
2...
Actually, that's all I can think of.
FYI, I think Sans has a decent shot and I don’t particularly want him. Even still, a ~4% is low in my eyes for Sans *shrugs*.
 
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(Say what you like, Golden Sun was a niche game)
Golden Sun sold over one million copies. All due respect to Touhou, and being a dojin product it shouldn't be judged by the same standard as a commercial game, but has there ever been a Touhou game that sold that much?

Also Golden Sun is a first party that doesn't need licensing, so the comparison doesn't really work.
 
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First of all, what was the argument for Ryu Hayabusa? I really haven't seen an argument for him (granted I haven't looked that hard either tbh). I just keep seeing his name pop up on leaks. Secondly, would Ryu Hayabusa sell well? Personally I hadn't heard of him or Ninja Gaiden until he started popping in leaks. After doing a little bit of research, it looks like he's a Sega character and that brings me to my next point. His inclusion goes against Mii Costume theory. So far I have no reason to doubt Mii Costume theory's validity, and Hero looks like he's going to strengthen the theory. Without any reasons to not believe Mii Costume Theory, I don't see why he's at a 47% chance score. Should be no higher than 15% imo, although I'm no expe
Hayabusa has an audience but admittedly his chances are mostly because of the good relationship between parent companies, Tecmo (not Sega, that's Shinobi) and Ninty. There's also the fact that he's a retro icon, who's still around today thanks to Dead or Alive, so you can't say he's completely irrelevant.
Costume theory doesn't hold up now that Microsoft is in the picture.
As for whether he'd sell, general reception of him in the aftermath of 5chan and Google theory has been positive, ranging from "he'd be neat" to "let's ducking go". So yeah probably.
 

BowserKing

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If you want to know who I find overrated

2. Tie between Rex and Pyra. Given how popular Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is, there could be a rep, but I think someone else like Fiora or Elma would be better choices instead, but that is just my opinion.
3. Waluigi: Relating to Overrated Two part way above, Waluigi is a major example of people being upset since the character they wanted got disconfirmed. I rather have Fawful and Geno get in the game instead, but I'm going to leave it at that.

As for underrated

1 is listed, not just because Lugia is not requested as much, but also because Generation 2 is underrated in Smash. Same thing applies to F-Zero and the Mario and Luigi RPG. Those games are underrated in smash, which is why I included them.

2: Changed it to Maxwell. Honestly, he would be a very fun character to use with tons of character potential. I'd also like to see Doppelganger as an echo-fighter, to makes things more interesting.

3. Changes it to Adeleine. She does not have a spirit in the game, and is now one of my most wanted fighters (for Ultimate). She has painting abilities, making here unique amoung the cast of fighters

Noms: 3 for Concept: More Bosses and 2 for Black Shadow
 
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BowserKing BowserKing I don't think you're grasping the concept of today at all.

Hayabusa has an audience but admittedly his chances are mostly because of the good relationship between parent companies, Tecmo (not Sega, that's Shinobi) and Ninty. There's also the fact that he's a retro icon, who's still around today thanks to Dead or Alive, so you can't say he's completely irrelevant.
Costume theory doesn't hold up now that Microsoft is in the picture.
As for whether he'd sell, general reception of him in the aftermath of 5chan and Google theory has been positive, ranging from "he'd be neat" to "let's ducking go". So yeah probably.
Let's ducking go is now my favorite phrase.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
BowserKing BowserKing

Today we are going off of the ratings we have done for DLC so far, and who among them is overrated and underrated. Check my post I mentioned in the title.


Edit at 4:56
Also I normally do not do this since I am very flexible with this sort of stuff but there will be a firm cut off time for posts to count towards the overrated underrated tally. 11:00 PM EST. This is so they can be tallied up effectively. You can not edit your posts after that point. Make sure you have the required two sentences of reasoning per character. Make sure you have followed the rules for today. As of this edit, you have six hours.
 
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Most Overrated:
All DLC is Third Party
I hope this counts but it was in the list so hey. This got probably the highest score out of every character or concept and I dont know why. People really, really hold on to this idea because they really, really want it to happen. But what evidence do we have? DLC wasnt only third party last time. It was mostly. Off course all the dlc we have so far is third party, The very first dlc HAS to be hype and you cant go to the biggest conference of the year without your hypest character. I think people are really jumping the gun here.
Alright, may as well explain this.
Why did this concept made it as the highest? Let's see: DLC inaugurated with Joker, and said character is meant to be symbolic to the DLC. Do you really think a Fire Emblem character can live to Joker's expectations? Let's go a bit further, do you think Nintendo would be desiring another Corrin situation?
You claim that last game's DLC wasn't all third-party, but here's the thing: even if it wasn't, Ryu, Cloud and Bayo all offered full packages of a character, a stage and music. Corrin didn't. Sakurai relegated a pair of songs on to an existing stage in the game and called it a day; he had a chance to give him a proper stage, but he didn't. And it's not like the same couldn't be said the veteran characters; Mewtwo could've easily had a Poké Floats stage coming with him. If that doesn't show a clear preference towards including new franchises, then I don't know what it means.
People who support this idea (including myself) aren't jumping the gun for no reason.
 

Neosonic97

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Golden Sun sold over one million copies. All due respect to Touhou, and being a dojin product it shouldn't be judged by the same standard as a commercial game, but has there ever been a Touhou game that sold that much?
Also Golden Sun is a first party that doesn't need licensing, so the comparison doesn't really work.
Golden Sun (and only the first one) barely broke 1 million by combining both its Japanese and US sales, with the majority coming from the US. Lost Age sold significantly worse, and Dark Dawn completely bombed. In the US it may be popular, but Golden Sun almost certainly is nothing more than a niche series in Japan. It's the exact same song and dance as Castlevania, right down to the sales being focused in the same area.

The problem with comparing Indies and Doujins via their sales comes from the fact that they don't typically release sales statistics. I've tried to find sales statistics of Touhou games, but to no avail.
Also, if we're going by sales...


I mean heck, a series that IS considered niche, that being the Fate series (From which we rated Nero Claudius) has also managed to break 1 million sales. Fate/Stay Night alone hits about 750k discounting the anime, according to Wikipedia. With it, it breaks 1 million on its own. Adding on JUST Fate/Extra already puts the Fate series above Golden Sun, and Fate/Extella's combined sales across all 3 versions takes it up to about 1.5 million. So the Fate series, a series considered very niche has outsold Golden Sun by a pretty significant margin (I'm talking like... half a million more sales at minimum). That's not even mentioning more obscure parts of the franchise, such as Fate/Unlimited Codes, or Japanese-exclusive releases like Fate/Extra CCC. Let alone the gacha hell that is Fate/Grand Order.

In fact, I'd argue that the only reason Isaac is even on the radar in the first place is because Brawl made him an Assist Trophy, which is why people are paying attention to Golden Sun to begin with. Smash brought attention to the character, and by proxy the series.

...And that's WHY relative obscurity should not be an instant dismissal in determining whether a character should get into Smash. While yes, being iconic IS an advantage for sure, isn't part of the magic of Smash celebrating all corners of gaming history, and perhaps shining light on these otherwise overshadowed franchises? Literally the only argument I've seen against Reimu in particular is that she's niche. That's it, and it's a pretty dumb argument, and, at least as far as I can see, doesn't invalidate the points for Reimu getting in (which are quite plentiful). People outside of Japan hadn't even heard of Ness prior to Smash 64 and now he's one of gaming's most beloved characters, and people are still clamoring for an official release for Mother 3. All thanks to Ness appearing in Smash. Another example is Richter. He co-starred in Symphony of the Night, the most popular and most well-known Castlevania game, but was practically an unknown to people in the West, due to his supporting role. To say nothing about Captain Falcon, whose identity is practically DEFINED by Smash.

Niche characters should not be dismissed simply because they're niche.

I DO support Isaac, for that manner, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking he's some gaming juggernaut. Golden Sun IS pretty niche, at least in Japan.
 
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Golden Sun (and only the first one) barely broke 1 million by combining both its Japanese and US sales, with the majority coming from the US. Lost Age sold significantly worse, and Dark Dawn completely bombed. In the US it may be popular, but Golden Sun almost certainly is nothing more than a niche series in Japan. It's the exact same song and dance as Castlevania, right down to the sales being focused in the same area.

The problem with comparing Indies and Doujins via their sales comes from the fact that they don't typically release sales statistics. I've tried to find sales statistics of Touhou games, but to no avail.
Also, if we're going by sales...


I mean heck, a series that IS considered niche, that being the Fate series (From which we rated Nero Claudius) has also managed to break 1 million sales. Fate/Stay Night alone hits about 750k discounting the anime, according to Wikipedia. With it, it breaks 1 million on its own. Adding on JUST Fate/Extra already puts the Fate series above Golden Sun, and Fate/Extella's combined sales across all 3 versions takes it up to about 1.5 million. So the Fate series, a series considered very niche has outsold Golden Sun by a pretty significant margin (I'm talking like... half a million more sales at minimum). That's not even mentioning more obscure parts of the franchise, such as Fate/Unlimited Codes, or Japanese-exclusive releases like Fate/Extra CCC. Let alone the gacha hell that is Fate/Grand Order.

In fact, I'd argue that the only reason Isaac is even on the radar in the first place is because Brawl made him an Assist Trophy, which is why people are paying attention to Golden Sun to begin with. Smash brought attention to the character, and by proxy the series.

...And that's WHY relative obscurity should not be an instant dismissal in determining whether a character should get into Smash. While yes, being iconic IS an advantage for sure, isn't part of the magic of Smash celebrating all corners of gaming history, and perhaps shining light on these otherwise overshadowed franchises? Literally the only argument I've seen against Reimu in particular is that she's niche. That's it, and it's a pretty dumb argument, and, at least as far as I can see, doesn't invalidate the points for Reimu getting in (which are quite plentiful). People outside of Japan hadn't even heard of Ness prior to Smash 64 and now he's one of gaming's most beloved characters, and people are still clamoring for an official release for Mother 3. All thanks to Ness appearing in Smash. Another example is Richter. He co-starred in Symphony of the Night, the most popular and most well-known Castlevania game, but was practically an unknown to people in the West, due to his supporting role. To say nothing about Captain Falcon, whose identity is practically DEFINED by Smash.

Niche characters should not be dismissed simply because they're niche.

I DO support Isaac, for that manner, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking he's some gaming juggernaut. Golden Sun IS pretty niche, at least in Japan.
I agree that niche characters shouldn't be discarded, but being niche certainly doesn't help. Touhou really only has being the leader of a genre to its name, and it has a lot of big counterpoints.
 
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Golden Sun (and only the first one) barely broke 1 million by combining both its Japanese and US sales, with the majority coming from the US. Lost Age sold significantly worse, and Dark Dawn completely bombed. In the US it may be popular, but Golden Sun almost certainly is nothing more than a niche series in Japan. It's the exact same song and dance as Castlevania, right down to the sales being focused in the same area.

The problem with comparing Indies and Doujins via their sales comes from the fact that they don't typically release sales statistics. I've tried to find sales statistics of Touhou games, but to no avail.
Also, if we're going by sales...


I mean heck, a series that IS considered niche, that being the Fate series (From which we rated Nero Claudius) has also managed to break 1 million sales. Fate/Stay Night alone hits about 750k discounting the anime, according to Wikipedia. With it, it breaks 1 million on its own. Adding on JUST Fate/Extra already puts the Fate series above Golden Sun, and Fate/Extella's combined sales across all 3 versions takes it up to about 1.5 million. So the Fate series, a series considered very niche has outsold Golden Sun by a pretty significant margin (I'm talking like... half a million more sales at minimum). That's not even mentioning more obscure parts of the franchise, such as Fate/Unlimited Codes, or Japanese-exclusive releases like Fate/Extra CCC. Let alone the gacha hell that is Fate/Grand Order.

In fact, I'd argue that the only reason Isaac is even on the radar in the first place is because Brawl made him an Assist Trophy, which is why people are paying attention to Golden Sun to begin with. Smash brought attention to the character, and by proxy the series.

...And that's WHY relative obscurity should not be an instant dismissal in determining whether a character should get into Smash. While yes, being iconic IS an advantage for sure, isn't part of the magic of Smash celebrating all corners of gaming history, and perhaps shining light on these otherwise overshadowed franchises? Literally the only argument I've seen against Reimu in particular is that she's niche. That's it, and it's a pretty dumb argument, and, at least as far as I can see, doesn't invalidate the points for Reimu getting in (which are quite plentiful). People outside of Japan hadn't even heard of Ness prior to Smash 64 and now he's one of gaming's most beloved characters, and people are still clamoring for an official release for Mother 3. All thanks to Ness appearing in Smash. Another example is Richter. He co-starred in Symphony of the Night, the most popular and most well-known Castlevania game, but was practically an unknown to people in the West, due to his supporting role. To say nothing about Captain Falcon, whose identity is practically DEFINED by Smash.

Niche characters should not be dismissed simply because they're niche.

I DO support Isaac, for that manner, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking he's some gaming juggernaut. Golden Sun IS pretty niche, at least in Japan.
I’ve never heard anyone say Isaac was a gaming juggernaut. Even diehard Golden Sun fans like myself know he’s not.

Not sure where you got that from. Golden Sun was still a very successful series on the GBA and was heralded for its graphics. Nintendo even advertised it on the GBA and SP boxes.

Good thing about Golden Sun that works in Isaac’s favor is Nintendo doesn’t have to negotiate rights with any third party companies.
 

frozolloyd

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Haven't done this in a while, but here are my thoughts.
Overrated:
1. Rayman (36 percent chance): Oh boy, this one is interesting. Ubisoft is undoubtedly the western company that Nintendo is the closest to and Rayman is pretty much their mascot, so I can see why people rated him so high. But the biggest problem with him is that he is a literal who in Japan, which hurts his chances as Sakurai seems to view smash as a celebration of Japanese gaming. Not to mention he is a spirit, which can act as a deconfirmation depending on what you believe.
2. Yuri Lowell(17 percent chance): Honestly Yuri's chances in my opinion have gotten a lot worse since we last rated him. The codename people thought could be linked to Yuri, "Brave", was presumably shown to be the Hero or Banjo. Since his game was released, 5 months have passed with him not being revealed, meaning at this point it would be a stretch to say he could be added to advertise Vesperia's definitive edition. This leaves him with only one real advantage over his competition Lloyd(which is excluding Tekken as well, who I think have a very good shot as well), which is he is more popular within the Tales fandom. And if this was the main reason Sakurai uses to choose characters, we would have gotten Persona 4's protagonist over Joker and Erdrick as the default fighter of hero with a DQ11 skin.
3. Ryu Hayabusa (46 percent chance): On one hand, I can see why people think he is likely, being the last big NES character not in smash bros. However, on the other hand, I have always thought he would make more sense as a base game addition, as unlike banjo Kazooie, he is a legacy character that isn't super high in demand. He's this low for me though, just because I could feasibly see him get added.

Underrated:
1. SNK rep( 25 percent chance): I think a SNK rep is definitely a dark horse for the last 2 DLC spots. This is one of the few Japanese companies left that aren't represented in smash, as well as the company having games coming out this year. Definitely a concept that I'm keeping an eye on.
2. Heihachi Mishima(7 percent chance): Although he is now part of the Pac-man roulette and his voice actor died, isn't 7 percent chance a bit too harsh? Tekken is one of the biggest fighting games in the world and Bandai Namco getting a spot for DLC seems very likely. Even though I am of the opinion Tales might get picked over Tekken due to past problems translating Heihachi into the game, Sakurai could always reconsider. In my opinion, even if Heihachi doesn't get picked, Jin could be chosen instead.
3. Jill Valentine (20 percent chance): Plain and simple, Resident Evil is Capcom's biggest franchise not yet represented in Smash, so I think this by default makes her more likely. Not to mention Resident Evil games are being ported to switch, meaning now might be the perfect time to add a resident evil character, much like DQ11.
 
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Sid-cada

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Most Overrated

Shadow - As what is seen as an echo-tier unique character that is an assist trophy from a third party that is now represented in the DLC to get double digets is strage, to say the least. Any one of those traits alone is seen as a huge negative in the whole. Together, he should be seen as a near imposiblility, much less the double digits we have now.

Steve - Now with Microsoft in, it's a bit harder to swallow, as we have Banjo to take the "Microsoft" slot. Fan-pleasers have been the name of the game thus far, and we haven't had a company double dip in DLC yet. With how devisive he seems to be, I don't think he's much of a priority at this point.

Bandanna Dee - We were working with incomplete information at that point. He wasn't confirmed to be a spirit at that point, and DLC is shaping to be 3rd party focused with a possible second Corrin situation (hopefully not). These days, he needs to be rechecked.


Most Underrated

Doomguy - At this point there isn't much directly in the way for his appearance. We have a western character, a character who wields realistic guns, etc. While we had held back on it before, at this point the only real thing holding them back is how much they are willing to negotiate between characters.

Phoenix Wright - I think that Banjo has shown that they are looking for major crowd pleasers who appeal to a wide audience. Pheonix seems like the next logical pick if Resident Evil doesn't work out, and I think people aren't giving enough credit to the monsters in a horror game, to the point where I feel like The Nemesis will come before the main characters.

...I can't think of a good third character, so I'll stop here.

Golden Sun sold over one million copies. All due respect to Touhou, and being a dojin product it shouldn't be judged by the same standard as a commercial game, but has there ever been a Touhou game that sold that much?
Touhou is in a weird spot when it comes to popularity. Touhou itself isn't necessarily popular as some major franchises, but the fan creations of Touhou are so popular people being fans of the series despite never having touched the original games or manga is considered a regular occurrence and turns it into a true juggernaut. Touhou fandom's something like an ouroboros, perpetually creating content to be consumed by itself, letting it grow to gigantic proportions.

If SteamSpy can be trusted, games made purely by the creator sold around 92,00 units on Steam; New releases of games tend around the 20-50,000 units, while older re-releases sold no more than 20,000. An official fighting game collaboration also sold around 20-50,000 units.

That said, Touhou Luna Nights, an unofficial fan game, has actually sold between 1-2,000,000 units.

I don't have reference for switch sales, but a port of Kobuto V Burst Battle, another unofficial fan game, was the second most downloaded game on the Switch on it's release week, beaten only by a two week old Mario Odyssey. Keep in mind this is without an official Touhou game on the switch, which has only recently been announced to have plans to port the fighting game to the switch.
 
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Overrated

3. Professor Layton (33% Chance)
Sakurai seems to be sticking to the really big guns of either gaming or speculation for the Fighter Pass, neither of which I can confidently file Layton under. While a 33% chance actually sounds about right, there were a lot of other candidates we covered with more prestige and backing that weren't able to reach as high, which is a little strange in retrospect. Layton's someone who only saw real support back in Smash 4 speculation, so it's odd to believe he'd do better than the likes of Phoenix Wright, someone with an older support base and a lot more popularity.

2. Crash Bandicoot (52% Chance)
Banjo fills up a lot of the platforming animal niche by himself; Kazooie fills up the rest. While it's still possible to squeeze Crash in, the fact of the matter is that Nintendo preferred to go for the longtime hopeful instead of the Sony Sonic with the modern remakes, which was something people worried about for most of Ultimate speculation. Maybe there's a day for this marsupial in the future, but I don't see it happening in this particular time

1. Lloyd Irving (51% Chance)
How can any other anime swordsman compete when Sakurai and Nintendo just go for the biggest fish there is? As it turns out, most JRPGs simply wish that they were Dragon Quest, and it's hard to imagine any of them having room to argue when Nintendo's efforts went into getting the JRPG into Smash. To be fair, Lloyd's got a bit more moveset potential by himself, but the gap between him and The Hero isn't as pronounced as, say, Joker, and it's a lot harder to argue for Tales itself.


Underrated

3. Doomguy (11%)
With the Western gate finally unlocked, franchises from across the pond can finally be pondered in full faith, and nothing stands in the forefront quite as much as Doom. Not only is it integral to the history of shooters, but it's got a fairly good history on Nintendo platforms, even giving the N64 an exclusive entry. While the violence and blood is an obvious point of contention, Doomguy's a lot better characterized than he used to be, and a very relevant topic in the modern day.

2. Tetromino (4%)
You guys aren't giving this one a chance, is all I'm saying here. there's a preference in this Pass for old games that did good things for Nintendo, like sell the Gameboy or pull the rug from under Atari, yet Tetris gets left out because blocks don't make for an easy moveset. Not by lonesomes, they don't.

1. Reimu (18%)
So much for poor Western audiences not understanding who these newcomers are. Turns out Nintendo's happy to pick characters that not everyone might be familiar with, and thank god for that. Lots of folks are filing Sans Undertale here (for...some reason), but Touhou is not only older, but also way closer to the roots of that particular branch of history we know as indie games.


Nominations
Valve representative x5
 
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PeridotGX

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Overated:

3. Dixie. She was rated before Joker and the realization that the pass was probably going to be all 3rd party. The Banjo trailer doesn't help a bit either.

2. Bandana Dee. Same story as Dixie, except he was rated even higher. The reason he was even rated so high was on an incorrect assumption that he had no spirit.

1. Steve. Banjo murdered his chances. There's almost no chance that we get two Microsoft characters on one pass.

Underated:

3. Maxwell. Banjo made me slightly more confident in his chances. Banjo never had significant non-nintendo history, so that's no longer a detriment to Maxwell. Furthermore, we have very few characters from the DS Era, so he would stand out on that front, leading to more purchases from people who have fond memories of that era.

2. Sans. He has the opposite problem as Dixie/Bandanna Dee, he was rated before Joker set the tone. If we are to get any indie character, it will be from Undertale. Sans and Frisk are tied for the most likely Undertale character, so the large gap between their scores doesn't make sense.

1. Ezio. Assassin's Creed is a huge series, a character from it would drive a ton of sales. Ezio is the series's Cloud, so unless they pull another Hero, he's the best option.

Noms: Kamek x5
 

chocolatejr9

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I don't really have anything to discuss here (I don't think I fully understand this), but I will say this: I did not expect to see some of these opinions. Gives me a new perspective on things.
 

Nquoid

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I know I'm late but I just thought I'd put my thoughts out even if they're not counted:

Overrrated:
1. Crash - Was just as dead as Banjo until the N. Sane Trilogy, but Activision never let him be in any Sony projects that you'd expect him to be in apart from that cool moment in Uncharted 4. So many of those mascot wars in the 90s were just playing off of the Sega/Nintendo relationship that adding another one that was just a pale comparison would just feel weird.
2. Bandanna Dee - Whilst very well loved, it feels like a lot of that sentiment comes from the fact that he completes the four and Kirby doesn't have a modern rep. But there are so many other series on the roster that are in similar situations who probably be a head. Toad should probably come before Bandanna Dee. A Zelda character who isn't a clone of someone else for the first time since Melee would be lovely. Yoshi getting a second rep. Completing the villain trend for the original 12.
3. Reimu Hakurei - Whilst big in Japan, is a literal who in the West, with such a convoluted release history, proliferation of fan games that it would just be daunting. This won't be the first indie character playable in Smash, especially when so far we've seen characters like Shovel Knight and Shantae as to the style they're clearly going for.

Underrated:
1. Heihachi - Whilst the face of the great PlayStation fighting series, it's also the big Namco franchise not in the game. It feels like there's hesitance to say a Bamco rep is on the roster but it makes a lot of sense to me. Giving a big thanks to Namco for the work they've done on the franchise the last few games, giving them a bigger chunk of the profits. Obviously there's the rumbling of them retiring the character, but this feels like a worthy enough final outing if they wanted to.
2. Dante - Whilst I think Resident Evil is the more likely franchise, but a 0.08% is insane. I don't think developers giving "deconfirmations" can hold a lot of weight after the Banjo guys were going around telling people to not get their hopes up whilst actually working on the character. I don't think it's the most likely outcome, but it's definitely not far fetched.
3. Porky - Whilst I do think that he isn't in the DLC cus of third party feeling, I do think he is the most likely Nintendo rep if there was going to be one.
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Ok so here is the score.

There were enough votes that went both ways that I lumped them together. I did something similar after last years overrated and underrated.

Here are the Results
Steve: 13 Votes
Dee: 10 Votes
Resident Evil (Mainly Underrated but I saw one overrated): 9 votes
Phoenix Wright: 8 Votes
Doomguy: 8 Votes
Sans: 7 Votes
Heihachi: 6 Votes
Celica: 6 Votes
Lloyd: 5 Votes
Crash: 4 Votes
Ezio: 4 Votes
Porky: 3 Votes
Hollow Knight: 3 Votes


Everyone Else nominated only had one or two votes. I did exclude posts that were missing the required sentence length, were after my

As such, here is the schedule as of now. I decided since Doomguy and Phoenix were both overwhelmingly underrated to tie them for second and have Sans be third. Heihachi was fourth but had a mixed rap, similar to Lloyd and Sans but Sans scored higher.
Day 1: Sans and Celica
Day 2: Bandana Dee, Phoenix Wright, and Doomguy
Day 3: Jill/Leon/Resident Evil Day and Steve

Expect a fixed schedule by Day 3. I will ask again for any desire for rerates, please be vocal. I am leaning yes but I want community feedback.

Also since you could not predict these characters, everyone will get 10 noms today instead of five.

Today, Sans and Celica. Tomorrow we will be doing Bandana Dee, Wright, and Doomguy. Rate and predict away.
 
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Sans:

Chance - 5%

Ok so yea Nintendo is pushing Undertale and Deltarune a bit but considering the only indie in the game being Shovel Knight is an Assist Trophy who was even more pushed by Nintendo I'm not expecting an india character to get the spotlight. Also Frisk would make more sense as an Undertale character and I still don't really see how it would work well in Smash.

Want - 0%

I haven't played Undertale but I heard it is a great game, representation through Sans however does not interest me. I think the main protagonist should come first.

Celica:

Chance - 1%

She's already in the game as a spirit (it is with Alm though if that means anything) which already makes me feel a bit shaky there but she is also a Fire Emblem character which we know get lots of backlash and I doubt they want a repeat of Corrin plus her game came out back in early 2017 so she is old news if they want a new Fire Emblem character and don't forget there is more popular characters out there. Oh yea and with the way this pass is going I'm sceptical of a Nintendo character making it in though I'm pretty sure it won't be Celica. Also I should mention we did just get a magic/sword based fighter so I doubt we're getting another.

Want - 0%

At this point if we are getting a new Fire Emblem character I think it will need to be someone really unique and Celica really does not do that for me. Also 2 magic/sword users in the same pass is something I don't really want (unless we get Isaac :p).

Nominations: Isaac Rerate x10 (Are we allowed to do Assist Trophies?)
 

MajoraMoon

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Sans- Chance 75%
Reason why he is so high is because of how huge the game Undertale is. Not only does it have the attention of both Japan and America, Nintendo even called it "The world-famous indie RPG". Plus, there hasn't been a single indie rep in Smash yet.
Want 100% Besides Skull Kid, Sans is my most wanted character (though since Skull Kid is an assist trophy now, I guess Sans is my most wanted).

Celica - Chance 15%
Another Fire Emblem rep? I don't know a lot of Fire Emblem so I never even heard of her. But if there was gonna be another Fire Emblem rep, it would be from Three Houses.
Want 0% I never heard of her till now XD.
 
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Sans:

Chance: 35%
Regardless of the memes he is a pretty likeable character and there's no denying the popularity of Undertale. Highly doubt that we would get an indie rep though. Also translating him to a 3D model would just be weird since I feel like part of Undertale's charm is the fact that it's 8-bit.

Want: 25%
There are many characters that just straight up should not be added but I don't think Sans is one of them.


Celica:

Chance: 5%
For the love of GOD no more Fire Emblem characters. If we get another anime sword character I'm gonna bash my head through a wall. There are plenty of other characters that would be way more fun even if you didn't know who they were just because they would have moves that didn't use a sword lol. Also if she has a spirit already I definitely would not count on her.

Want: 0%
No clue who this chick is.
 
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I am inevitable
Chance: 15%
Well okay, maybe not but his chances have been looking better than ever, tho probably mostly for an Undertale character in general. His popularity cannot be overstated and he's basically the game's mascot... however the DQ hero has probably proven the main protagonists will often be prioritezed over the mascot. The chance still exists they'd make an exception for him but I'm no longer comfortable with rating him higher than Frisk.


Want: 85%
Yeah sure do it. Undertale's great and it would be funny. The day he'd be confirmed would go down in history.


3ds gone
Chance: 0%
Ok, even assuming Nintendo did all the choosing and Sakurai couldn't object to more FE, there's just no way she would be picked over anyone from Three houses. Her game was released two years ago and the 3ds is officially dead, there's no reason to advertise Gaiden suddenly.

Want: 0%
...do I even have to say it? You guys know the drill.

Dee: 16.86%
P. Wright: 53.42%
Doomguy: 42.97%
Gene x10
 
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