Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[shinhed-echi]

It's a shame Geno's potential wasn't explored further.
He would have been a PERFECT addition, even as NPC, to Super Mario Galaxy 1 or 2.

And that Higher Authority being Rosalina. (There's a lot of fan art about this too, lol)

I'm pretty sure Nintendo could've bought his rights.
Oh well.

I see him appearing in Mario Kart before SSB to be honest. Though Mario Hoops 3on3 was the biggest missed opportunity.

 

[XenothiumX]

Geno
Likelihood: 1%
Want: 50% ( I consider 50% to be indifferent)

R.O.B
Prediction: 93%

Nominations:
Saki x5

 

[TheDivineDeity]

Geno :
Likelihood: 1%
Want: 100%

ROB: 95%

 

[Fatmanonice]

Geno:

Likelihood: 5%. Geno's only shot is if his preBrawl popularity caught Sakurai's attention. For a side character with only one game nearly 20 years ago, his popularity is surprising and the fact there's still a decent number of people who want him back after all this time is attention worthy but we really don't have any indication that this has even come close to Sakurai's radar despite being requested for Melee and Brawl.

Want: 100%. He would work so well in a Smash game that it practically hurts to think about how low his chances are.

 

[Forde]

Geno

Prediction: 5%. I really don't see him getting in, although I will admit the supporters are quite vocal about their want to see him in, and if it catches Sakurai's attention, then maybe it could happen.

Want: 10% Would be interesting to see someone from such an old game, but he is nowhere near the majority of my wanted chars.

Rob: 85%

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Been lurking this thread for a while now, finally forced by Smash hype to make an account and participate xD

Geno

Chances: 10%. I used to think he'd be more likely given his popularity pre-Brawl and just how much people asked for him. But the fact that he has not seen a resurgence in demand since then, as well as the fact that he's a Mario character who legally is more complicated to obtain than other popular choices like Junior and Toad ... well, it just doesn't bode well.

Want: 80%. Not insta-main material, but I'm familiar enough with him to desire having him in the Smash roster.

R.O.B. prediction:
87.5%
I imagine a lot of 90%s and 100%s from people who want the Brawl roster intact, but at the same time a lot of much lower predictions from many who see him as never belonging in Brawl in the first place and as such deserving to be first on the chopping block.

Nominations:
x5 Porky/Pokey Minch

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Geno:

Likelihood: 5%. Geno's only shot is if his preBrawl popularity caught Sakurai's attention. For a side character with only one game nearly 20 years ago, his popularity is surprising and the fact there's still a decent number of people who want him back after all this time is attention worthy but we really don't have any indication that this has even come close to Sakurai's radar despite being requested for Melee and Brawl.

Want: 100%. He would work so well in a Smash game that it practically hurts to think about how low his chances are.

Pretty much this. Though I'd be a bit more pesimistic and say Geno's chances are closer to 1%. But so that I don't make Groose's life difficult

Likelihood: 1%
Want: 100%

ROB Prediction: 87%

Nominations:
I really am runing low on characters to nominate... Isaac from Golden Sun seems kinda cool. Never played the series though.
Isaac x5

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

I must say, when nominating Geno I knew his chance scores would probably be awful, because no matter how much I want him he isn't likely. That said, I expected him to do much better in the want department.

 

[ZeldaMaster]

Geno
Likelihood: 0%
Due to conflicts with Square and little relevance to the Mario series. If he couldn't make it in the last three installments, why now?
Want: 0%
I don't like Geno
ROB Prediction: 90%
Nominate Paper Mario x 5

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 1% - Not happening, nor should it, because literally all Geno has going for him is his inexplicably large fanbase, whereas he has a million and one things against him, the biggest being Square Enix themselves. If Nintendo goes to SE for anything, it'll be to get Black Mage as a character, not Geno.

Want: 3% - I honestly have no idea why this guy is even popular in the first place. He's a minor character in the whole of the Mario series, only appeared once, and after he's obtained he's entirely optional. His popularity baffles me to the point that it makes me sort of resent the character just for their fanbase (think Cloud Strife or Justin Bieber fans). The only reason he's not a full on zero is because if nothing else, he could have a unique moveset. Aside from that there is nothing about him that really appeals to me. He's pretty bland, has no relevance or importance, nor does he have an appealing design or bring anything super new to the game (now that Megaman has given us a projectile based moveset).

ROB prediction: 87% - IMO he's not going anywhere, but the fact that some people are still mad about him to this day will drag him down. Unique, fun moveset and being one of the most important characters in Nintendo's history period will ensure his spot in the game. Plus, now he's got a fellow robot to battle with in Megaman :D

Nominations
Samurai Goroh x3
Medusa x2

 

[farvin111]

Chance: 0.01%
no no no no no. Only reason for not a flatout zero is because of Geno's inexplicable fanbase which might reach Sakurai's knowledge

Want- 1%
Don't know him, but seems interesting... a bit.

ROB- 88.26%
A lot of idiots think he'll be going, so I'm gonna have to be conservative here.

x5 Scrooge McDuck

 

[neosam23]

Geno Chance: 0%
I can't see him being in it. He only was in one game and it was published by Square Enix.

Want: 0%
I don't want him, either. Simple as that.

R.O.B. Prediction: 80%

Nomination:
Magnus x5

 

[Groose]

Geno's Chances: 0.01%
This is as low as I go. Geno is popular only among the very core of the Smash audience. In general, his popularity is far smaller than that of Waluigi, Toad, and Bowser Jr. Additionally, he's third-party.

Geno Want: 50%
I've still never played SMRPG... I really should get around to it, seeing as I love all of the Mario and Luigi and Paper Mario games. So... while I have no personal attachment to Geno, I still think he would be interesting. It would be great to see him in because it would be a dream come true for a good deal of people.

R.O.B. Prediction: 92.45%
People were baffled when he joined the Brawl. That doesn't mean that they think he'll leave.

Medusa x5
Those who lurk in the darkness must be made to face the light.

 

[cephalopod17]

Geno Chances: 1%
He is a third-party Mario character. All that's going for him is a fanbase. Even if Square-Enix gave us a character, it could be Cloud,Sora,Slime or Black Mage.

Geno Want: 11%
I played SMRPG around a year ago on the Wii's Virtual Console. Was not the biggest fan of Geno. He is cool and all, but I'd prefer Toad or WAA as a Mario rep or Pac-Man or Sora as a third party.

R.O.B Prediction: 90%

Notations:
Medusa x4
Paper Mario x1

 

[Groose]

Been lurking this thread for a while now, finally forced by Smash hype to make an account and participate xD

Welcome to the boards and to this thread.

I must say, when nominating Geno I knew his chance scores would probably be awful, because no matter how much I want him he isn't likely. That said, I expected him to do much better in the want department.

It's disappointing, isn't it? I nominated Tingle for three weeks straight for everyone to pull the hatebase card. *Sigh* When you nominate a character so much, it only leads to disappointment.

Geno's star is waning. Many people weren't here pre-Brawl, and they really just don't know who he is. Of course, they'd rather have someone they know and are familiar with... like Waluigi.

I fear that this game may be Geno's last chance; unlike your usual suspects, his support diminishes across time.

Paper Mario x1

Paper Mario is still serving his 30 days. Only characters that are listed under renominations can be re-nominated.

​

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE ​

 

[DMurr]

This is also another one of those slippery slope scenarios (lolalliteration) that I discussed when ranking Owain/Lucina; if what amounts to a fad character can get in based on a few vocal fans, who might follow? Rawk Hawk? Poo? Reggie?

I know this is kind of far back, but I wanted to respond to it. People may not view Lucina as important as Chrom here, but she is in no way a fad character in the same sense as Owain. She's more along the lines of Micaiah. I also think Lucina has a far greater chance than people here expect, but who knows?

Anyway...

Edit: Just saw the day was over. Nevermind haha

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

It's disappointing, isn't it? I nominated Tingle for three weeks straight for everyone to pull the hatebase card. *Sigh* When you nominate a character so much, it only leads to disappointment.

Geno's star is waning. Many people weren't here pre-Brawl, and they really just don't know who he is. Of course, they'd rather have someone they know and are familiar with... like Waluigi.

I fear that this game may be Geno's last chance; unlike your usual suspects, his support diminishes across time.

Yes it is. I suppose I deserve this after hating on Tingle, but yes it is. For a fleeting moment when I saw you had replied to my comment but I had yet to see the reply, I thought maybe I'd doomed myself with the phrase, "I knew his chance scores would probably be awful." After all I really didn't expect him to do better then the requisite 5%. But in retrospect, that seems like a pretty unreasonable fear; you seem like a reasonable person after all.

 

[Groose]

Geno (Super Mario)
2.93% chance
31.65% want

Geno was always a longshot. Even so, his followers are probably disappointed that he couldn't even break a 3% chance average. Of course, his followers are probably even more disappointed that his want percentage is lower than any Mario character we've rated so far... including Waluigi. Ah well, at least he beat out Sandbag in terms of chance and Miis in terms of want.

Today our character is one that wasn't a popular choice pre-Brawl... but he made it in anyway. Yes, R.O.B. is entering the arena today. Will he make a return? Please leave your chance and want on R.O.B. today.

Also, please predict how Ganondorf Dragmire will fare in tomorrow's competition. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by... me? Yeah... most of you guessed in the twenty percent range. Ouch.

I can also announce that Shulk has once again been added to the nominations list. Perhaps he'll be able to squeak into the top ten in chance if a revote is performed?

 

[SpaceJell0]

R.O.B. both 100%

Ganondorf: 96%

x5 Starfy

 

[Cheezey Bites]

R.O.B.:

Chance: 96%
A clever addition last game, and one that would be very disappointing not to have in this one. R.O.B. is part of Nintendo history and his SSE inclusion was a fantastic poke at the past, I just really don't see him being dropped. His inclusion reminds me of Polygon Man in PSASBR, it mad me laugh and nostalgia, and while I think he'll not have the same impact in another game, I think that moment was too much to drop for a sequel.

Want: 80%
He's a decent character, and a cool addition, but I think his move set was a little unoriginal. I'm not sure how you'd make a move set out of R.O.B. better, but I just don't think he played too well.. though that's personal opinion, others will want him so I'd like him in for them.


Ganondorf: 93.26%
People will argue about de-cloned and Falcondorf, but ultimately I think his percentage will be really high.


Slime*5 (I hope he's goo-ing to do better than Geno)

 

[DukeofShorts]

R.O.B. chances: 89% he was fun to play with and was deadly if you used him right.

R.O.B. want: 98% I really like how they made him look like he had emotions even though he is jus a robot with two eyes. This isn't a 100% want because I don't want my brother to completely destroy me with him like he normally does.

Ganondorf prediction: 94.5%

Anthony Higgs x5 (glad to see he got seven nominations instead of the usual five from me!)

 

[Groose]

Yes it is. I suppose I deserve this after hating on Tingle, but yes it is. For a fleeting moment when I saw you had replied to my comment but I had yet to see the reply, I thought maybe I'd doomed myself with the phrase, "I knew his chance scores would probably be awful." After all I really didn't expect him to do better then the requisite 5%. But in retrospect, that seems like a pretty unreasonable fear; you seem like a reasonable person after all.

Yeah. Personally, I'm disappointed with how Geno worked out... but there really isn't anything to be done about it now. His want percentage was frankly more depressing than the chance percentage.

 

[Deleted member]

Poor Geno...
R.O.B.
Chance: 95%
R.O.B. has bigger chances than most realize. While most would like to see R.O.B. gone, I think Sakurai has taken interest in our favorite Robotic Operating Buddy. He has a major role in the Subspace Emissary and he does have a unique moveset (in my eyes) to separate him from most characters. He also has a major role of being part of Nintendo's history where this terrible peripheral helped out by faking parents believe that the NES was a robotic toy rather than a console and helped the gaming industry get out of the major video game crash. With all of this in mind, R.O.B. is here to stay and I think that everything that I've mentioned will help him in the long-run.
Want: 80%
I wasn't a big fan of R.O.B. initially, but he has grew on me over time I suppose. R.O.B. is not one of my mains, but I would be disappointed to see him get cut.
Ganondorf Prediction: 95.7%
Finally we can get him out of the way.
Nominations: Sonic 5x

 

[MargnetMan23]

Likeliness 95%
Want: 80% I wouldn't be too bothered if he left but he shouldn't leave
Ganon Prediction: 97.8% He's not going any where.

Nomz: Mr. Game and Watch x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

ROB: 96%
Want: 100%
Ganondorf: 98%
Nominate:
Ridley x 4
Lucas x 1

 

[---]

ROB - 95%
Want - 100%

Didn't like him at first, but after playing him a little bit he's grown on me. Either way I severally doubt that he's going anywhere.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

R.O.B.

Likelihood: 90% - Sakurai said he didn't want to or plan to cut any characters. However, if he has problems with time, R.O.B. could be cut, but he would still be a higher priority than Lucario, Snake or Ike.

Want: 95% - No cuts please. ROB is a nice addition to the roster

Ganondorf prediction: 98,5%

Nominations:
Zoroark x3
Primid x2

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 90%
Want: 50%

Ganondorf: 97%

Karate Joe x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

R.O.B.
Likelihood: 97% He's got nothing hindering his chances from what I can see.
Want: 100% I always really liked R.O.B., even though I'm not very good at using him. His inclusion was a surprise to me, but he fits very nicely on the roster.

Ganondorf: 98%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

R.O.B.
Chance: 96%
There is no reason to cut R.O.B. He was the "character" or (robot) back then who helped Nintendo become a big company, he obviously deserving of a spot in Smash 4.

Want: 99%
He is really fun to play as. He was one of my secondary mains. Plus he is a robot with LASERS!!! What's not like about R.O.B?!

Prediction for Ganondorf: 97.67%

Nominations
Sylveon x4
Mr. Game and Watch x1

 

[SonicMario]

Likelihood: 97%

Was basically Brawl's Mr. Game and Watch. Very unique among the cast, he'll be welcomed upon his return. It's only not 100% on the off chance that he might have to be cut if the roster ended up smaller then Brawl's

Want: 100%

If it were up to me, I'd cut no one from Brawl. Especially if they had their own unique moveset. And ROB definitely provides one.

Ganondorf prediction: 95%

A few people might be set on the (Albeit weird) logic that he'd be replaced with Ghirahim or Demise from Skyward sword. Otherwise when he's up I'll be sure to put a 99% for him in Likelihood.

 

[Starcutter]

ROB 96%
want 88%

Ganondorf: 97.57%

nominations
kamek x5

 

[shinhed-echi]

ROB

Chance: 95%
A unique character, a tribute character, and Japan loves robots. :D What more can be said?
The only way I see the guy leaving is if ROB's priority is decreased, and he becomes "Brawl's Mewtwo" in the way that he ALMOST made the cut but ultimately didn't.


Want: 90%
He's definitely one of my top most wanted characters to return.
Pokemon Trainer >ZSS>Sonic>Jigglypuff>ROB


Nomination: Saki Amamiya. x5

 

[Erimir]

ROB

Popularity: I don't really know, but he didn't get in on the basis of modern popularity anyhow.

Relevancy: He's an interesting part of Nintendo history. Aside from being in Brawl, he also appeared in a Mario Kart game. He was a very important part of the Subspace Emissary.

Roster and Competition: There isn't another franchise flavor-of-the-week that might push him out. ROB is not directly competing against anyone.

Sakurai: He's said he's not planning on any cuts.

ROB chances: 98%
I don't really see why Sakurai would cut him, unless he just ran out of time. If that happens, lots of people are getting cut, since I imagine that characters from franchises with multiple reps would be first on the chopping block. The Forbidden 7 of Mewtwo, Dixie, Toon Zelda/Sheik, Roy and Dr Mario and possibly also Pra_Mai were all from franchises with multiple reps. The other cuts from Melee were also from games with multiple reps (Pichu, Young Link).

ROB want: 57%
He's not really my favorite character to play with, but I like the idea of him and I think he's an interesting and worthy inclusion.

Ganondorf prediction: 98.5%
If Ice Climbers can manage ~98%, Ganondorf can surely muster slightly better numbers. But I guess there are some pessimists out there...

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

(I'll note that while I didn't win nominations this time, I was only ~1% off from Geno's score)

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

R.O.B. chance=95%

R.O.B. want=0.01% I think he looks stupid. He looks like Johnny 5. He doesn't fit with the other characters. Replace him with Ray.

Ganondorf: Is this any incarnation of Ganondorf, or specifically the clone of C. Falcon?

 

[Starbound]

Chances: 100%

Sakurai isn't letting such a unique character get cut, not to mention the loss of the franchise.

Want: 85%

He's a quirky little guy.

Nomz: Palutena x5

Predicting 98.4% for Ganondorf

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Chance: 95% R.O.B. he was a neat retro character, and sort of unique, in that, he's techincally the only character in Smash Bros. thus far that exists in real life. If they keep any other retro characters, I see no reason why Sakurai would cut R.O.B. among the others.

Want: 65% I didn't think he that popular of a choice at the time, and I think a lot of people were confused by his inclusion, as far as I know. But I personally want him to return. I'm not sure about how many people care for him now though.

 

[BKupa666]

I know this is kind of far back, but I wanted to respond to it. People may not view Lucina as important as Chrom here, but she is in no way a fad character in the same sense as Owain. She's more along the lines of Micaiah. I also think Lucina has a far greater chance than people here expect, but who knows?

Anyway...

Edit: Just saw the day was over. Nevermind haha

Yeah, I didn't intend to indicate that both are on equal footing, importance-wise. I just fear that the MOAR FEMALES crowd would be unleashed with reckless abandon if Lucina were added, just like the fad bandwagon would be if Owain were added.

R.O.B.

Likelihood - 100%
There is absolutely no reason to cut this character, or that this character will be cut. Bite me, GamesRadar.

Want - 75%
His playstyle is alright, though I wouldn't be torn to pieces in the impossible scenario of his removal.

Ganondorf Prediction - 97.5%
Because there's going to be 'that guy' who will mind-bogglingly spew that Demise or Pig Ganon will replace him. Pah.

Nominate
Groose x5

 

[Smasher 101]

R.O.B.'s chances: 95%
Want: 80%

Ganondorf prediction: 98%

Samurai Goroh x5

 

[FalKoopa]

R-O-B ROB!

Likelihood: 99%
He was a great addition, was a unique character, and has literally no reason to be cut.

Want: 100%
The day when he was reveal was one of my happiest days. Having played him in Mario Kart DS, seeing him in Brawl was an unexpected and pleasant surprise. Also, he's one of my mains.

Ganondorf prediction: 99%

Nominations: Primid x 5