Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[YoshiandToad]

Damn! Missed Pokemon Trainer...ah well; time to rip into poor undeserving Geno.

Geno
Chances: 1%
Geno is not important to the Mario franchise, he's no longer important to the RPG franchise, Square doesn't care about him; that much is obvious from him not being included in the most obvious logical game for him to appear in; Mario Sports Mix which was made by both Nintendo and Square.
Clearly Nintendo didn't push for his or Mallow's inclusion either, so they don't care particularly about Geno.
Heck; even his creator has shown no interest in bringing him back; (Source). His support has died down a lot since Brawl, and I honestly can't see him even as a regular trophy/sticker, let alone an assist or a playable character. He also has to contend with a large roster of characters that are more relevent to the Mario series, more recognisable, and easier to obtain the rights to.
I'd even go as far as to say he's less likely than Black Mage, Ninja or White Mage for a square rep.

Want: 1%
Toad, Bowser Jr, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Doc. These characters are popular, important to the Mario series and actually have a shot of being included.
Paper Mario represents a more recognised Mario RPG spinoff. I'd put even Fawful above Geno as a good Mario RPG rep since he's appeared in more than one game as a side protagonist. Which sort of puts him on the same level as Goombella. Doc and Waluigi are also a better representive of a Mario spinoff title if needs be.
Toad and Bowser Jr are more relevent, recognised and popular than Geno. Daisy, Rosalina, Birdo, Toadette, Kamek, Baby Mario bros. are also more recognised these days than Geno.
I'm not even sure if Geno is the best representive for Super Mario RPG. Mallow appears earlier on and hangs out with you for a longer time. Geno's more popular, but doesn't exactly stand heads and shoulders above Mallow.

ROB prediction: 79%

Nominate...
X5 Meowth

 

[Gam3rALO]

I wonder when i will win nominations. Probably never haha
Geno
Chance: 2.1%
Geno has WAY to much competition, and even so he is third party. (If im not mistaken) And we all know third party characters don't have a big chance anyways.
Want: 0.1%
I would rather have Waluigi and I really HATE him.

Prediction for R.O.B: 94.64%

Nominations:
Sylveon x4
Mr Game & Watch x1

 

[loganhogan]

chance 0.5% if he wasn't 3rd party i'd rate him higher but he is and he's screwed over for that.
want 5% I guess he's better than Waluigi to me but idk the character too well to say i'd want him.

 

[DukeofShorts]

Geno chances: 0.1%

Geno want: 0%

He's not very important to the Mario series whatsoever and is probably the ugliest thing I've seen.

R.O.B. prediction: 78.8%

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Geno

Chance - 0.01% - Really, the only thing that he has at this point is popularity, and even that is falling as of late. Unless Sakurai really goes out of his way to please his fans, I doubt he will get in. I just can't see him going out of his way for such a minor character.

Want - 35% - Don't care for him. I honestly think he'd be wasting a valuable third party slot, and there are bigger fish to fry than him.


ROB Prediction - 88% - Just in case someone underestimates him.

Nominations
Lucas X2
Anna X2
Donbe and Hikari X1

 

[ErictheLone]

Geno: 5%
Want: 0%

He's not bad. If by some miracle he got in I wouldn't be bothered, but there many others I'd rather see.

Nominate:
Mach Rider x3
Anthony Higgs x2

 

[Starbound]

Chances: 2%
Unless a miracle happens and Square says yeah sure use him, it's not happening.

Want: 4%
I like Mario RPG but the fact that this guy is so popular astounds me.

5x nomz Palutena

 

[Toxicroaker]

Geno: 0.7% His game is (correct me if I am wrong) not recent and he was not even the main character in it. Put that with the fact that he is third party and he has no chance.
Want: 0% Wow, it has been awhile since I brought out a 0% but I really dislike 3rd parties, heck I don't even want sonic or snake to return... I don't even want Megaman in the game...

R.O.B.: 96.71% No one should think he will leave but there will be the people that think he will go... sadly...

 

[ToothiestAura]

Geno

Chances: .01 - 5%
He's a third party, so his chances are pretty slim. But he was probably the most requested third party that didn't get into Brawl (next to Megaman), so he's got enormous popularity and that may give him a shot. The real issue is getting the licensing for him as he certainly has enough popularity to merit Sakurai to actually consider him.

Want: 60%
I never did finish playing Super Mario RPG, but I played enough to like Geno. He's certainly the best character from SMRPG to be playable, Mallow's a little lame in my opinion. Geno would have a fairly interesting playstyle and would have a pretty huge nostalgia factor.

 

[Seraphim.]

Geno
Chance: 2%
Want: 5%

ROB: 89%

Lloyd Irving x5

 

[BKupa666]

Geno

Likelihood - 5%
Virtually all of this percentage is due to the possibiltiy of Sakurai looking off of Brawl's poll, and even then, we don't know how highly Geno ranked on there. That one Brawl "poll" people use as evidence of his popularity is actually a list of how many requests for each character Sakurai published; Mega Man only had two published requests and Geno had four, yet Sakurai has now openly stated that Mega Man was the next most requested third party after Sonic and is in a "league of his own." Pockets of supporters off of his fractured fanbase may rate him more highly, but this is as much as he gets from me.

Want - 10%
I don't think a beam-based playstyle would be half as unique as people claim. This is also another one of those slippery slope scenarios (lolalliteration) that I discussed when ranking Owain/Lucina; if what amounts to a fad character can get in based on a few vocal fans, who might follow? Rawk Hawk? Poo? Reggie?

R.O.B. Prediction - 98.7%
A bit of residual bitterness will keep him from getting a perfect score, but he'll still have very few doubters.

Nominate
Ganondorf x5

 

[Erimir]

(How come nobody likes Mallow? I know he was a cry-baby, but...)

Geno

Popularity: He has some fan base among the fans here, but he's not the most popular character here. Among the general Smash playing public, he's probably mostly unknown or considered no more important than any other one-off Mario ally.

Relevancy: He appeared in one game as an ally, but not the main character. Not being the main character isn't that much of a knock on a Super Mario character though, since all the ones who were protagonists of major games are already in (Toad could be considered the protagonist of Wario's Woods, I suppose, but his name isn't in the title). And he is very important to the Super Mario RPG plot though.

Design: You could come up with a good design for Geno. It wouldn't be crazy unique, but I don't see him as a clone either.

Roster and Competition: Mario already has 4 reps. Probably there won't be two of them, which means he's competing against a number of Mario characters. And several of them have strong arguments that they're more important. Waluigi has appeared in many more games. Toad and Bowser Jr have both appeared in many more games AND are frequently important in the games they appear in. Paper Mario is another Mario, but he's the protagonist of several games. There are plenty of one-off (or two time) characters that are just as or more important to their games as Geno is to his (Rosalina, Count Bleck).

Putting in Geno would be a conscious decision to go for a cult/obscure/retro character, and not based on him being an important Mario character.

Legal issues: He'd already be unlikely given those issues. But he also belongs to Square. On the one hand, he's a character they won't be using elsewhere and so if Nintendo asked for him, I don't really see why they'd say no other than to be *****. I don't really see any reason for them to be opposed to it, but maybe I don't know the politics of the video game industry.

On the other hand, Square would much rather promote characters that matter. And Nintendo would get more sales out of putting a more famous and popular Square Enix character in the game. And they'd both benefit from putting a character that might promote a Final Fantasy game that's available on a Nintendo console. And there are also a number of Square Enix characters that have strong connections to Nintendo that are also eligible. If in response to asking for Geno, Square suggested one of their many more popular/important characters, I think there'd be a good chance Sakurai would dump Geno for that.

For example... Cloud would be a huge draw for Nintendo and more promotion for Square's star. Terra would be from Final Fantasy's SNES swan song and possibly could be used to promote a 3DS remake (a la the FF4 remake for the DS). A Black Mage, Moogle, Chocobo or Slime would be iconic for Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest. Crono wouldn't really be a big promotion for Square, but the fans would go crazy for him (maybe not quite as crazy as for Mega Man or Sonic).

All in all though, I'm not sure Sakurai wants a Square character in the first place, and Square Enix and Nintendo don't have the most cooperative relationship anymore.

Geno chances: 0.5%
There's a very low chance Sakurai would want Geno in the first place, and a decent chance Square would say no in response to a request. I'd be a little surprised if he or Mallow even made appearances as stickers, trophies or ATs, although they definitely deserve at least that.

Geno want: 47%
I'm mostly indifferent, but I'd rather have some other Mario characters. One thing I'd not be disappointed to see would be a Super Mario RPG stage and/or Super Mario RPG music. I'd really like it if they could at least get some Super Mario RPG music even without any Geno or Mallow in the game. Of course, any other Square character, especially a Final Fantasy character, would also bring along some awesome music (FF6 World of Light theme? Dancing Mad? FF4 opening? Frog's Theme from CT?! etc.)

ROB prediction: 95%
I don't really know how down people are on him, so I'll predict high since he's not like Ike or Lucario in having characters from the same series to replace him.

Nominations:
5x Simon Belmont

Geno want: 50%: havent played his game because nintendo seems to like taking FOREVER to put virtual console games on the eshop, but he seems pretty cool

Super Mario RPG is available on the Wii Virtual Console. But yeah, not on Wii U or 3DS.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Geno
Likelihood: 1% He's only in one game (besides a random cameo), and that game is pretty much dead too. Plus he's third party, which makes him even less likely.
Want: 5% I don't really see why everyone thinks he's the "bee's knees." He's just some weird doll thing.

R.O.B: 99%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 2%
Want: 0%

ROB: 81%

Karate Joe x5

 

[SmashShadow]

likelihood: 3%
1 3rd party slot has already been taken and it's not likely that we get more than 1 more new 3rd party. His popularity has fell and he's a 1-shot character...in the Mario universe no less. He's not very well known either.

Want: 70%
He's got an awesome movepool, interesting design, personality and Squeenix isn't doing anything with him.

R.O.B: 90%
Some people will have bias.

3x Vaati
2x Impa

 

[SonicMario]

Likelihood: 5%

Probably a case where even massive requests won't make this character an easy journey to Smash. Even if Nintendo cared enough to try to get Geno in the game we don't know if Square would downright say no or suggest a different character from Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest. Add the fact there's limited 3rd party spaces to begin with. AND the very competitive competition for the Mario newcomer spot (if it exists) with Toad, Waluigi, Paper Mario, and Bowser Jr. If the Mario Newcomer spot is a horse race, all four I mentioned are currently neck-in-neck and it will be by a nose on which one it is. While Geno's far in the back, out of breath. With many hurdles along the way. It'd take a miracle for Geno to pull ahead. I'd say 5% is a decent miracle percentage.

Want: 25%

He'd be kinda cool. Albeit I haven't played SMRPG. I just don't see it happening really. But if the stars align, it'd be interesting to say the least.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Likelihood: 2.25%
He's not nearly the most relevant Square Enix character, nor was he the main character in his only playable appearance.

Want: 11%
I preferred Mallow.

ROB: 91%

Nominate:
Marina x3
Snake x2

 

[Ephecus]

Geno

Likelihood: 0,1 %
Geno hasn't appeared as a playable character since SMRPG which is from the SNES era. Neither did he ever really influence the history of Nintendo much, so there is no possible chance of him getting in.

Want: 10 %
Not that I have anything against him personally, but if he gets in over a character whom I would much rather have in I'd be pretty pissed. He has no All-Star status.

R.O.B. (yay!) Prediction: 91,5 %

Nominations:
5x Medusa

 

[Sebz]

Geno~ 5%
Only because he had a loud fanbase pre-Brawl release.

Want~10%
Interesting design, but I don't really know the character seeing as how I never played SMRPG.

R.O.B.~97%
Fudge haters, he had an awesome moveset and was a blast to play.

Noms:
Genesectx5

 

[sunfallSeraph]

Geno likelihood: 3%
Even that much is probably pretty generous. Everyone's covered all the major reasons already.
Want: 100%
My single most wanted character, his lifeless form having been dragged from the Brawl era into the present for one last viewing before he is laid to rest in obscurity for all time. ;_;

R.O.B.: 88%
I don't especially want to see him back, but it seems like most people warmed to him over time, so I imagine he'll have a pretty high percentage.

Noms:
Zoroark x5

 

[Starcutter]

Geno likelihood: 15% (that's pretty low for my standards. lower then my score for my sandbag XD)

want: 25% pretty cool. liked him in SMRPG.

ROB 87%

Nominations:
Kamek x5

 

[ToothiestAura]

91,5 %

Someone's European.

 

[Yams]

Geno:

Likelihood: 5% he has way lower priority than other 3rd parties IMO, and he isn't even the mascot of Square Enix.

Want: 85% He's really cool, but I'd MUCH rather have Waluigi, Paper Mario, or even Toad.

R.O.B: 90%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[kiteinthesky]

Geno

Likelihood: 5% -- it depends on whether the big-ass movement to get him in Brawl affected Square Enix or Nintendo in such a way as to pursue him or not.

Want: 100% -- He's the main character I've been hoping for since the Brawl days. I'm surprised at all the downvotes here actually. Geno's always been quite popular. o_o; I think a lot of Geno's support has dried up because of the fact that he was passed over for Brawl. I also don't get why people think he's just some nobody who just happens to be popular. People argue that he's a nobody because he's too old and obscure, but lots of characters in Smash are old and obscure. Ok, my ramblings really should be saved for the Geno thread, but still...

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Geno:0%
He ain't happening.

Way too many complications and not enough demand to deal with those complications.

Want: 45%
He'd be kinda cool I guess.

R.O.B. Prediction: 86%
I think most of us think he'll stay.

Nominations:
Ganondorf
Lucas
Sonic
Snake
Mr. Game & Watch

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Geno

Likelihood: 0% - He's not a mascot, has only appeared in one game and there are much more important Mario character. Is Geno a Nintendo all-star? Not even close

Want: 30% - Would rather see Toad, Bowser Jr. or Paper Mario, but is not like he's my last Mario choice

R.O.B. Prediction: 88%

Nominations:
Zoroark x3
Primid x2

 

[Primid]

Geno

Chances: 0% Even if he wasn't third party, he'd still have to compete with the Mario franchise's more recognizable characters: Bowser Jr, Toad, Paper Mario, and Waluigi.

Want: 1% Not at all interested. He's far from a Nintendo all-star and I'd much rather see the Mario section of the roster get a more well-known rep.

Nominations:
Masked Man x4
Snake x1

 

[Deleted member]

I find it kinda sad that Geno has as low scores as Owain and Sandbag (though I wasn't expecting too much to be honest)... I'm curious as to what the overall chance and want percentage is going to be by the end of this.

 

[Groose]

I don't think a beam-based playstyle would be half as unique as people claim. This is also another one of those slippery slope scenarios (lolalliteration) that I discussed when ranking Owain/Lucina; if what amounts to a fad character can get in based on a few vocal fans, who might follow? Rawk Hawk? Poo? Reggie?

Rawk Hawk in Smash.... you have no idea how long and hard I laughed at that comment.

I'm going to start the Rawk Hawk support thread.

 

[PK_Wonder]

0.15% There are way more likely third party characters. There are way more likely Square characters. Just above what I gave Sandbag and Owain, while still waaaay less likely than several dozen characters that have yet to be rated. He has a cult popularity going for him, but he is minor and part of a third party collaboration, not a good combination.

Want: 0% I feel like he'd be stealing a Mario spot from one of about six Mario characters I'd rather have.

Ghirahim x5

 

[kiteinthesky]

Rawk Hawk in Smash.... you have no idea how long and hard I laughed at that comment.

I'm going to start the Rawk Hawk support thread.

Make this a thing. MAKE THIS A THING.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Geno chance=2%

Geno want=1%

R.O.B. prediction=85%

Nomination=5xVaati

 

[SchAlternate]

Geno's Chances: 5%

Geno Want: 100%

R.O.B Prediction: 95%

Nominations:
-Lip (1)
-Sukapon (1)
-Vaati (1)
-Simon Belmont (1)
-Genescet (1)

RANDOM COMMENT: Damn, I knew Geno's chances were going to be abysmal, but I didn't knew barely anyone wanted him. Huh.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Geno
Chance: 1% - He has no support from Square or Nintendo.
Want: 7% - I've never understood the appeal of this one-shot side character.

R.O.B. prediction: 97%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5.

 

[TheCreator]

Chance .5%
Want .1%
Yeah no.
Alph x3
Pacman revote x2

 

[Smasher 101]

Geno's chances: 0.5%
Want: 0%

R.O.B. prediction: 85%

Nominate Samurai Goroh x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Geno

Likeliness: 5%
Not only is he technically not a Nintendo but a Square Enix character to boot. SE is notorious for not handing out their characters to be used in other games. Plus, Geno is fairly minor from a SNES game (an amazing game none the less). Geno does have popularity but that popularity was at its height pre-Brawl. I hardly see any vocal support this time around.

Want: 70%
Geno would be an excellent addition. He could have a very interesting move set and play style. As well, it could possibly help "revive" the Mario RPG series.

R.O.B.

Prediction: 83.5%

Nomz:

Nightmare x5

 

[Starcutter]

Chance .5%
Want .1%
Yeah no.
Alph x3
Pacman revote x2

I don't think Pac-Man is up for revoting yet.

why don't you vote for someone else, like Kamek?

 

[Hank Hill]

Chance: ~0% Geno is 3rd party, and Sakurai said Smash bros is not about 3rd party characters. Whatever chance Geno may have is because of his overrated popularity, but that alone doesn't bring characters.
Want: 0% I don't really care for Geno, and I think there are many more Mario characters deserving a shot before a one time thing (excluding cameos).

R.O.B.: 90% I'm pretty confident he will stay.

 

[FalKoopa]

I serve a higher authority...

Geno:
Likelihood: 0.1%
Given the recent article (posted in the Geno thread) that the the creators of SMRPG have no interest to make a sequel to the game, and combined with his 3rd party status makes him a near-impossibility.

Want: 45%
Largely indifferent.

ROB prediction: 80%
He has a solid chance of returning.

Nominations:
Isaac
Vaati x 2
Ganondorf x 2