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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Gam3rALO

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Pokemon Trainers

Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 70%
Want: 5%
This is the only cut I want along with Lucario. I have a great list of reps that are perfect for smash.
Mewtwo and New Form
Pikachu
Jigglypuff
Sylveon
And if Pokemon can get another rep then: Lucario/Pokemon Trainer
New Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 10%
MUCH lower than the real Pokemon Trainer
Want: 40%
However I would like a more current version.

Prediction for Geno: 17.44%

Nominations
Sylveon x5
 

jaytalks

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I think that's more because everyone has heard of Pokemon, but only people who play Pokemon know/care who Red is. I mean, you even described who he was in parentheses.
That's entirely possible, but I think the name is an indication of what the character is suppose to represent.
 

Swamp Sensei

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Yay main time!

Awesome Pokemon Trainer (Red): 95%
I don't see him being cut. He's too unique and he seems way too important to be cut. He's also pretty popular.

Want: 5 million! (100%)
He's my main. I mained him just for Ivysaur. I'll do it again!

New (Lame) Pokemon Trainer: 10%
I can't see it happening. Blatantly replacing three veterans for three new ones doesn't seem like Sakurai.

Want: 0%
I want Ivysaur.... :ivysaur:

Geno Prediction: 11%
He's not likely but he has quite the fanbase.

Nominations:
Ganondorf
Lucas
R.O.B.
Sonic
Snake
 

Erimir

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I hated the stamina system though, felt that it was overall something that shouldn't have been in the game.
It would be nice at least if you had some obvious indication of what your Pokemon's stamina is.
 

CalumG

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That's not unique to Pokémon though, some locations that end up being stages don't really get a treatment that makes them represent the location very well. Take Fourside for example, while we have the Helicopter and the Monotoli building nothing else really hails from Fourside, it's just a random big city at night, which is also very odd since you never see Fourside at night in the games, Moonside would be the closest to that. The UFO is very random too, since it only actually appears in the game's opening title card. Then there's some kind of construction going on, and Fourside is never under construction in Earthbound, so I don't know where they got that from.

Then take Brinstar too, this one was really messed up. The platform you fight on doesn't have the tiles of colors of Brinstar at all, Brinstar has had blue, green and red tiles, but never mucky barf colored tiles. Then there's the acid, which was only present in the original Metroid and wasn't present at all in Super Metroid, and it wasn't a very frequent sight in the original Metroid to see acid in Brinstar either. And then there's of course the brain thing in the background, which never appears in a single Metroid game. The only brain ever present in the Metroid games is Mother Brain, and that thing in the background of the stage sure isn't Mother Brain. I guess you could consider the Aurora Units brains too, but they debuted in Metroid Prime 3 and have never been on Zebes either. The Brinstar stage is a disgrace to the actual location if you ask me, because there's nigh to nothing unique to Brinstar that is in that stage. The only thing that actually makes Norfair acceptable in Brawl is the background of the stage which is obviously inspired by Norfair, but I'm kind of ticked off at the actual platforms you fight on, since Norfair doesn't really have metal anywhere other than the way to the Ice Beam in Super Metroid.

Of course locations have to be altered to fit properly in a fighting game, I think they transitioned Spear Pillar and Saffron City well in that regard, but when there's little or absolutely nothing that points toward the stage actually being based off of the proposed location, like with Fourside and Brinstar, then it's just plain annoying. I understand that they can't pack every stage with references like with New Pork City and Halberd, but instead of adding a random brain they could at least add something that makes sense instead. For the most part I think Sakurai does it well, but sometimes... ugh...
Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's exclusive to Pokemon; if anything, I'd say the series that took the worst hit is the Wario franchise. It seems clear beyond all doubt that Sakurai has rarely touched a Wario platformer in his entire life, considering that Wario's representation came almost purely from WarioWare, and how during the Melee days (that is, before WarioWare existed) Sakurai was on the edge of including Wario as a slow heavy Mario clone - the Ganondorf to his Falcon.

But yeah, the Fourside thing is one of my biggest gripes with Melee, just as Saffron was in Smash 64 - both of them are the very definition of a generic city stage, each with three or four little franchise-based touches added to them in an effort to convince us that they're not generic city stages.
 

MasterOfKnees

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Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's exclusive to Pokemon; if anything, I'd say the series that took the worst hit is the Wario franchise. It seems clear beyond all doubt that Sakurai has rarely touched a Wario platformer in his entire life, considering that Wario's representation came almost purely from WarioWare, and how during the Melee days (that is, before WarioWare existed) Sakurai was on the edge of including Wario as a slow heavy Mario clone - the Ganondorf to his Falcon.
Yeah, as a big Wario Land fan (duh, my name, though it's over-exaggerated,) I hate that he's based 99% off of WarioWare, with one Wario Land reference, being his shoulder tackle. I hope the release of Shake It has some effect on Wario in the new game, because his Wario Land incarnation is much more fit for fighting than his WarioWare incarnation is.
 

SmashShadow

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Red: 82% chance
The sheer fact that he chose an older gen trainer rather than a newer one shows he doesn't look at generations. He's completely unique and hold 3 of the most recognizable pokemon. I still think it's possible that if he wants to make room for new characters that he could be cut due to his 3 in 1 status but i'm more than confident he'll be in.

Want: 100% No cuts, especially not Charizard :glare:

New trainer: 10%
I find it very unlikely that a new trainer will come up if Red is in the game and having competition from Mewtwo, Zoroark, Genesect etc...

Want: 0% Too many Pokemon to add into 1 Smash game.

Geno: 15%

3x vaati
2x impa
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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I would actually be fine with these pokemon staying in if they were made into separate characters. You want Ivysaur? I actually think he's kind of cool. Make him his own character that doesn't suck. Don't saddle the game with a ****ty character because you want one pokemon out of the three. I feel like I shouldn't have to defend this position on this board. You guys know about Brawl+ and Project M, right?
 

Groose

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I would actually be fine with these pokemon staying in if they were made into separate characters. You want Ivysaur? I actually think he's kind of cool. Make him his own character that doesn't suck. Don't saddle the game with a ****ty character because you want one pokemon out of the three. I feel like I shouldn't have to defend this position on this board. You guys know about Brawl+ and Project M, right?

Indeed. However, I find that part of the allure of the character is lost in Project M. I actually like how they use Pokemon Trainer to unite them all.
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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I would even be fine with that if they were all more powerful. Make the switching mechanism better. Don't punish people for playing a cool character.
 

colder_than_ice

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Old Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 70% - Definitely the most likely of the two. Charizard and Squirtle are timeless classics, any Pokemon that a later generation trainer would use would just be the flavour of the week.
Want: 28% - Truth be told, I never liked him.

New Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 20% - I'd say there's a 7/10 chance of an old trainer, 2/10 chance of a new one, and a 1/10 chance of not getting either. We won't get both.
Want: 13% - He's not welcome here. It's way too much development time for a three in one character when could get three individual characters that we want.

Geno prediction: 2%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Old Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 80% - Pokemon has a huge following, so I don't see him going anywhere.
Want: 40% - Meh. I never liked Pokemon trainer that much. If anyone gets cut, I wouldn't be sad at all if it was him. Sorry, don't hate me :p

New Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 10% - I dont think a new trainer will get in over the original.
Want: 0% - Absolutely not.

Geno: 10%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5
 

Xenigma

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Finally got extra noms since near the very beginning of RTCR, and Isaac's back up for a re-voting? I wouldn't bother otherwise, but it must be fate!

Pokemon Trainer (Red) - 90%
Let's be clear here: there will be a Pokemon Trainer in SSB4. The only question is if it will be Red, and further, if it will still be Squirtle/Ivysaur/Charizard. No doubt the most iconic trainer in Pokemon history, excluding the anime, is the original Red, and the original starters (ESPECIALLY Charizard) are still the most famous and fan-beloved of all. Add in that they already were in SSBB and constitute three unique movesets and I have difficulty seeing an SSB4 where that particular iteration of Trainer doesn't return. Nevertheless, I'll leave off 10% for the event Sakurai rethinks how Trainer should be represented, but I think it's extremely likely he sticks with what we have.
Want - 100% - A brilliant inclusion, and makes up three awfully fun characters. Perfect Smash inclusion.

Pokemon Trainer (Anything Else) - 10%
As I said, there will be a Pokemon Trainer in SSB4, so here is that 10% I shaved off of SSBB Trainer, with no extra percentage as I don't see two trainers making the cut. Maybe Sakurai wants to represent a new generation with the Trainer. Maybe he'll want to change what the three Pokemon are. Sakurai has said he wants to reconsider the roster with SSB4, so maybe he has a change of heart. Personally I don't see it, but who knows? Could be fun.
Want - 75% - Honestly, I'd love to see a second trainer, and I'd just die if it just happened to have Blaziken as one of the inclusions. Serious potential here, though if we only get one I'd rather see Red.

Geno Prediction - 15%
Everyone here should be familiar with why Geno is a big longshot, but naturally he still has fans.

Nominations
R.O.B. x5
Isaac x5
 

Spears In Smash Bros.

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Gen 1 Pokemon Trainer likelihood: 82.5%
Not-Gen 1 Pokemon Trainer likelihood: 17.5%
We are getting a Pokemon trainer, It is practically certain.

Gen 1 Trainer want: 67%
He was one of my mains in Brawl.

Not-Gen 1 Trainer want: 90%
It's good to shake things up a bit. I didn't like the Kanto games as much as the other regions (except Sinnoh), nor do I particularly like the starters in the region.

Geno prediction: 14%

Nomination:
Skull Kid x2
Ninten x3
 

Fastblade5035

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Pokemon Trainer: 80%
Even if he himself doesnt show up, his Pokemon sure will.

Want: 100%
No cuts pls

NEW Super Mario Bros Pokemon Trainer: 39%
Cause stuff.

Want: 70%
Only if Grovyle and Blaziken are his Pokemon. Mudkip can hitch on too.

Geno: 2%

Noms:
Magnus x1
Dark Pit x3
Viridi x1
 

Smasher 101

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Pokémon Trainer's Chances: 95%
New Pokémon Trainer's Chances: 5% - I'm sure we'll get a Trainer, and I doubt that the old one will be replaced.

Pokémon Trainer Want: 80% - One of my least favorite characters in Brawl, but I'd still rather not have cuts.
New Trainer Want: 10% - I don't want to see two trainers, and would much rather keep the one we have already.

Geno prediction: 2%

Nominate Samurai Goroh x5.
 

Yams

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PKMN Trainer: 85% chance, no reason to go
Want: 99%

New Trainer: 30% chance
Want: 50% depends on the trainer

Geno: 5% the only other 3rd party will probably be Namco

Duck hunt dog x5
 

PK_Wonder

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There's like a 95% chance that a "Pokemon Trainer" will be playable using the same playstyle of three swappable Pokemon.

I say it's about 65% going to be Pkmn Trainer as is, with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard,

and the other 30% being a New Trainer with some other combination of starter forms from other generation(s).

Nominate Saki Amamiya x5
 

Diddy Kong

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Pokémon Trainer Red:

Chance: 75%
Want: 80%

Truth to be told, I didn't like the Trainer much when he forst got announced. Pre-Brawl, I was pretty much 100% against the idea of having a playable trainer. However, that was considering he'd had a moveset involving throwing rocks, swinging fishing rods and riding bicycles. I liked Squirtle and Charizard a lot. Wouldn't like to see them go. And honestly, I don't think they are going anywhere. There's just a slight possibility they will get cut however.

New Trainer: 25%

Impa x 5
 

ZecaOMestre

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Pokemon Trainer (old)

Likelihood: 75% - Veteran, there's not reeally a good reason for him to go, unless they want to change his Pokémon to a newer Gen.

Want: 80% - I don't like cuts, but if they replaced him for, say, Hoenn Trainer, I really wouldn't mind.

Pokémon Trainer (new)

Likelihood: 25% - Maybe it will happen, but I think it's more probable they keep Red as he has appeared in every Generation

Want: 40% - Out of the 5 new Pokémon Trainers they could make, I would like 2: 3rd and 4th Gen.

Geno: 2%

Nominations:
Zoroark x3
Primid: x2
 

Groose

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Pokemon Trainer Red's Chances: 75%
Sakurai doesn't like cuts and he's given no indication that he will change the Pokemon of Pokemon Trainer. I think it's reasonably safe to say that he will remain the same.

Pokemon Trainer Red Want: 50%
Although I did enjoy using him in Brawl and he was a great surprise on the roster, I understand he takes a lot of time and effort to make. If he gets cut and we get a newcomer or two in his place, I'd still be satisfied.

"NEW" Pokemon Trainer Chances: 15%
It's not outside the realm of possibility, but that doesn't mean I consider it likely.

"NEW" Pokemon Trainer Want: 20%
In most cases, I'd rather have Red or a different newcomer. The Fifth Gen starters were okay, but I'd prefer Zoroark or someone from there. The Sixth Gen starters are still an unknown element. But that kid inside of me would love a Third Gen starter... Mudkip, Treeko, and Blaziken. Still... my logical side says just avoid a new Pokemon Trainer.

Geno Prediction: 3.28%
He's a pipe dream, people. If it weren't for his heavy support on this board, he would score lower than Owain and Sandbag.

Medusa x5
Those who lurk in the darkness must be made to face the light.



DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE
 

Groose

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Pokemon Trainer Red:
81.38% chance
71.88% want

"New" Pokemon Trainer:
18.33% chance
37.95% want

You guys are pretty damn sure that we'll see a Pokemon Trainer this game. While you can't entirely rule out the chance of a new trainer to replace Red, you're reasonably certain that Red will stick around. Of course, you're definitely satisfied with this... though there will still be longing for a new trainer. Oh well. I guess you CAN'T catch them all.

Today enters only the second third-party character we've rated so far. But I'm sure that many of you may feel that he's too much of a Nintendo character to be truly third-party. He is Geno, and he has finally returned. Please leave your chance and want on Geno today.

Also, feel free to predict R.O.B.'s score for tomorrow. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Wildvine47 and ThisIsMatt.

Finally, it is my pleasure to announce that King K. Rool has once again been added to the nomination list. Once any character gets 100 votes for a renomination, he or she will be voted upon alongside the usual character of the day.
 

moneyfrenzy

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Geno chance 1%: he doesnt stand a chance, im sorry but he is not happening
Geno want: 50%: havent played his game because nintendo seems to like taking FOREVER to put virtual console games on the eshop, but he seems pretty cool

Rob: 90%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5
 

APC99

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Geno Likelihood: 50%. I think because of all the demand for Geno in Brawl, he'll end up in the game, or he won't.
Geno WANT: 90%. I want characters like Ridley and King K. Rool more, but Geno is HIGH up there.

R.O.B. Likelihood: 80%. Not sure if they'll remove any unlockable characters, so I hope R.O.B. will stay.

Nominations:

King K. Rool x1
Ridley x1
Geno x1
Little Mac x1
Mewtwo x1
 

Cheezey Bites

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Geno:
Chance: 0%
If a deal is done with Squeenix it'll be done for a series people will be excited about, possibly for the last announcement (Ala Sonic in brawl), not for Geno, a guy who, while cool for Nintendo, is not really exciting for anyone who's not a massive Nintendo nerd. Sure Nintendo nerds need some love too, and I can see forest maze theme, a sticker, trophy, and even a stage element or assist trophy made out of him, but a full playable character? no. never. Squeenix is Dragon Quest in japan, and Final Fantasy overseas, one of them would sooner take Geno's place (and if you look in my description and nominations you can see which I believe in). In fact I feel including geno as a playable character would be a bit insulting to where the mario RPG games have gone (baby bros/paper should be higher priority). He has fans, and I was one of them 'till I came into contact with all the over hyping of him, but not enough for sakurai to push dragon quest or final fantasy to the side for him, and certainly not enough for Squeenix to accept the offer ignoring their main series.

Want: 0% (I'd give negatives, but I don't think they'd get counted negatively anyway)
He'd make a great assist trophy though.


R.O.B: 77.77%
Keeping with the repeated numbers theme, this time lucky 7. I think he's higher chance, but I think there'll be enough detractors for him to be somewhere in the 70s.


Slime*5
(100 votes already! Not goo bad!)

*worst pun yet, it's getting hard*
 

Groose

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Geno Likelihood: 50%. I think because of all the demand for Geno in Brawl, he'll end up in the game, or he won't.
Geno WANT: 90%. I want characters like Ridley and King K. Rool more, but Geno is HIGH up there.

R.O.B. Likelihood: 80%. Not sure if they'll remove any unlockable characters, so I hope R.O.B. will stay.

Nominations:

King K. Rool x1
Ridley x1
Geno x1
Little Mac x1
Mewtwo x1

You can't nominate Geno on the day you're voting for him! Also, Mac and Mewtwo still haven't served their thirty days yet, either.

And I'm not usually one to comment on other people's predictions... but 50% seems a tad... optimistic.
 

MasterOfKnees

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Geno:

Likelihood: 0% - Given recent comments made by the guy who made Mario RPG about how he has no plans on ever revisiting those characters and that world, the fact that he's sitting under Square's wings, he's a 3rd party character with little demand these days, and the fact that he's a side character in a cult classic game, I don't think he even remotely stands a chance.

Want: 75% - I'd actually really enjoy his inclusion, he has a lot of potential to have a great moveset, and in general he's just a cool character. Alas, too bad that he hardly stands a chance.

R.O.B Prediction: 92%

Nominations:
5x Ganondorf
 

Opossum

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Geno time!

Likelihood: 0.1%
That may seem harsh, but he just has so much going against him: Sakurai's high-bar for third parties, the fact that there are much more popular and important Mario characters, the fact that Square-Enix is notoriously hard to work with, and the fact that his popularity has greatly diminished since pre-Brawl.

Want: 30%
He'd be pretty cool.

Predicting a 76% for ROB, although he should get much higher.

Nominating Falco x5
 

APC99

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You can't nominate Geno on the day you're voting for him! Also, Mac and Mewtwo still haven't served their thirty days yet, either.

And I'm not usually one to comment on other people's predictions... but 50% seems a tad... optimistic.

Sorry, new to the nominations... and, yeah, I'm a bit on the optimistic side because of the want for Geno in Brawl. Let me redo it:

King K. Rool: x2
Ridley: x2
Quote (Cave Story): x1
 

Diddy Kong

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Geno:

Chance: 1%
Want: 40%

Sure, Geno would be a real cool addition to the roster. And, like Ridley, it would proof Sakurai indeed goes out of his way to please his fans. However, am pretty posititve Geno would be viewed as a weird addition to the casual masses. And I doubt Sakurai would go and argue with Square for Geno's rights. He'd be a cool newcomer though, but I'd still rather see Toad or Paper Mario, by, a lot.

Impa x 5
 

CalumG

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Geno

Likelihood: 0%... actually, I'll change that to 5% because I really don't like being that absolute about something. Either way, it seems very simple to me. Geno is neither an important Nintendo character, nor an important Squeenix character - it's genuinely that simple as far as I'm concerned. What does Geno have that Toad or Bowser Jr. don't, other than being far less important to the Mario series? You could argue he has a vast fanbase, but even then, I'm skeptical about whether Geno's fanbase are really that big or whether they're just the fanbase that shouts the loudest. The guy has appeared in one game - and he wasn't even the protagonist of it. So whilst I can see people saying "but Ice Climbers have only been in one game!", my rebuttal to that is that they have never included a one-off character unless they are the protagonist of that franchise or that particular entry. Every character included in Smash from the Mario series, the DK series, Zelda, Kirby, Star Fox, Metroid, Earthbound - they've all been of crucial importance to their respective franchises (or a clone). Has Geno? No, no he has not.

Want: 30% - Having said all that, I think Geno would make an excellent fighter, and if Smash 4 was going to have a roster over 50 characters I'd more than welcome the guy. But as it stands, with a limited roster and stiff competition from other Mario newcomers, I just can't justify Geno over Bowser Jr., Toad or even Waluigi (as much as it pains me to say that).
 

MargnetMan23

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Geno: 5% *shrugs*
Want: 35% He could be cool but I nver played that game so I don't care.

R.O.B prediction: A handful of people see him as a likely cut but no... Just no he's staying 91.6%

Nomz: x5 Mr. Game N Watch
 

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鉄腕パドル!
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Geno - 0%
Want - 0%

Don't really know how a minor one shot Mario character got so much demand within the Smash scene but whatever. Personally don't hate him myself, but I still can't help but roll my eyes whenever he's mentioned in a serious manner. I'm more of a Wanda fan anyway.
 
D

Deleted member

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Geno
Chances: 1%
I should really give him a 0% chance, but I don't really want to be that cruel and that absolute since he does have some potential. He has chances but his chances are very, VERY slim. He not only has to compete against third party characters, but also Mario characters. This leads to big issues as his competition has higher chances than him being playable. We are dealing with characters such as Bowser Jr., Toad, Waluigi, Paper Mario, Sonic, Bomberman, Snake, and more and the one thing that they all have in common is that they all had multiple appearances. Geno only had one appearance (minus the cameo in Superstar Saga) and he wasn't even the main character in Super Mario RPG. If Square Enix wanted to have Sakurai put a character in Smash Bros., it would be someone entirely else and from Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest. As it stands, Geno's chances are very, very slim and I don't think he will be in SSB4's roster since there are many other characters more deserving than him.
Want: 0%
I don't like the character. I would also be disappointed if he got in and not Bowser Jr. or Sonic.
R.O.B. Prediction: 92.4%
I think his chances are higher than most realize.
Nominations: Ganondorf 5x
 

shinhed-echi

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GENO:

Chance: 5%
Like I said before. Square Enix is REALLY overprotective of their characters. And the only characters I see them advertising, are FF characters.
Outside the realm of possibility? Not exactly, but be aware that Superbot was pursuing the inclusion of Cloud for PSASBR (a much MUCH more popular character) and I believe that fell on deaf ears (don't have a source, but in a game about Sony All-Stars, this was a given, plus there was a lot of fan demand) . Topped with the fact that one of the SMRPG devs said he had no plans for anything related to the series, is not exactly a good indication.

Want: 40%
Not on my priority list, but he could be one of the more enjoyable Mario characters to have around. Definitely my pic alongside Toad for a Mario character.


Nominate Saki Amamiya x5
 
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