Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Hmm... double posted. Odd.

 

[Yams]

Likelihood: 45% I think Waluigi is more unique fighting-style wise than Toad or Junior, but not as important. I'd say he has the same chance as both of them, but is still below Paper Mario. But too bad, WALUIGI TIME!

Want: 100% one of my top 5 most wanted characters.

Pokemon Trainer: 85%

Nomination: Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Hank Hill]

Likelihood: ~20% I don't see it likely, but he is popular albeit stiff competition from other characters like Bowser Jr., Toad, and Paper Mario.

Want: ~20% I'm not against him as he is my 2nd most wanted Mario character, but I definitely would prefer Paper Mario before him.

 

[thisismatt]

Waluigi's chances - 30% Not that great but not impossible
Want - 40% I like him but I dunno if I'd be okay with him in this; he's better left to the Party/Kart/Sports games methinx
Pokémon Trainer (as he was in Brawl) predix - 80.01%
Pokémon Trainer (new) predix - 19.98%
Noms - Mach Rider x3, Saki Amamiya x2

By the way, I would recommend that you re-open noms for Prince Peasley. He was a major character in his game, and not a joke nomination. At the very least, if you're going to close him, you should also close stuff like Scrooge McDuck, Kumatora, Count Bleck (especially him since he's also from a Mario spinoff and has a similar size role as Peasley), Zip, and Anthony Higgs.

 

[Opossum]

That's a good question. Why aren't Scrooge McDuck votes prohibited?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

He is technically ineligible.

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

WAAAAAAluigi

Likeliness: 39%
WAAAAAluigi has competition from Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Toad, and, to a lesser extent, Daisy, Rosalina, and King Boo. However, I consider his AT status to be a boost. While he has yet to appear in his own game, he has became a mainstay in the Mario spinoff series. He is also well known which is something considering he is a newer character and hasn't had a game yet. His fan base and hate base is very vocal though with helps or hurts his chances. Waluigi can appear just as easily as not appear

WAAAAAAAAAnt: 42%
If this was last year or pre-Brawl, I would have given a 0. But, just recently, I've opened up to the character. He could have a VERY unique move set and play style which drew me in. As a character, I hate him. But I recognize his unique attributes and abilities.

PKMN trainer: 78.5%

Nomz: Nightmare x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

He is technically ineligible.

For what reason? I was wondering why Peasley was listed as ineligible as well.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

For what reason? I was wondering why Peasley was listed as ineligible as well.

No idea about Peasely. He should fit.

Scrooge did not originate in a video game though.

 

[Starcutter]

WAA 45%

want: 70%

pkmn trainer: 75%

nominations
kamek x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Waluigi: 22%
He's got Japanese popularity and an assist trophy. Other than that, he's pretty negligible and outclassed by both Junior and Toad.

Want: 40% I think there are more deserving Mario reps.

Pokemon Trainer: 72%

3x Vaati
2x Impa

 

[neosam23]

Waluigi Chance: 35%
He's got an okay chance, considering Wario got in, and I can see him having some moveset potential, but he hasn't really got all that much in either
department.

Want: 10%
I don't really want him that much. He's kinda okay, I guess, but not so much to make me say that I really want him.

Pokemon Trainer: 50%
He was fresh and new and kinda okay, but I think he could make way for...
New Pokemon Trainer: 75%
Only he'd have to have Mudkip, Grovyle and Blaziken. Mudkip was hugely popular as an online meme, and Blaziken was also very popular (Being my first Level 100 XD). I wouldn't have any other pokemon trainer, unless the Kalos Region has some really nice pokemon.

Nominations:
Lloyd Irving x3
Victini x2

 

[DukeofShorts]

Waluigi chance: 20%
Waluigi want: 20%
He's not a very good character and he hasn't been in an actual Mario game.
Pokémon trainer:79%
New Pokémon trainer: 30%
Anthony Higgs x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

WAAAAAAAAAAA(luigi) chance: 25%
I think I read somewhere that Waluigi was actually quite requested. I don't think he's as deserving as the other Mario reps seeing as how he's even ignored in the Wario Games. There's little reason for him not to have appeared in either a Mario platformer or a Wario title considering the amount of time he's been around now.

WAAAAAAAAAAA(nt): 35%
I actually quite like Waluigi, and after Toad he's one of the Mario characters I do want to see get put in the game. But I still would rather have Toad. Maybe Paper Mario too.

Pokemon Trainer: 72%
New Pokemon Trainer: 59%(People will rank this possibility higher than the chance actually is I feel)

Nomination:
3 X Andy(Advance Wars)
2 X Meowth

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 28% - Of the Mario characters, I'd put him below Jr. and Toad, but above Paper Mario. Waluigi's definitely got the potential and fanbase, but he's got a sizable hatebase as well, along with the very negative point against him: that he's yet to appear in a mainstream Mario title. Honestly, even though I know it's taboo around here, I feel that Waluigi's best chance of getting into the game is if he gets categorized as a Wario character. However, until we get some sort of indication that that will happen, he's not going to score very highly for me.

Want: 70% - I'd rather see him over the rest of the big Mario four, if only to finish off the Mario Bros. vs. Wario Bros. set, but aside from that he's also my go-to guy in the Kart games and other spinoffs. However, I realize he's not got the best chances, nor am I going to fool myself into thinking he does.

Veteran Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 81% - Honestly, I just want him to be revealed soon so that all the people who keep stuffing other generational trainers onto their rosters as "likely predictions" will finally shut up. There's no way I see PT being removed; he's gotten the most popular first gen starters to be playable. Sakurai knows that they're the most popular, and as such knows that replacing them with any other cache of three would just be stupid marketing-wise, time-wise and design-wise.

Newcomer Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 26% - The amount of people who have hopped on the New Pokemon Trainer bandwagon is appalling, but I'd like to still think that there are enough level-headed people around to keep them from inflating the chances much higher than what I've predicted.

Nominations
Samurai Goroh x3
Medusa x2

 

[AEMehr]

WAAAAAAAAAAAA
Chance - 50%
Waluigi has a much better chance than most Mario characters. With assist trophy status in the previous game, it shows that he was in the thought process for a potential character in Smash Brothers. The only thing that really hurts him is the fact that he's mainly a spinoff character. But really he's got a 50 / 50 shot like every other Mario character for Smash 4.
Want - 100%

Pokemon Trainer (Red)
Prediction - 72%

Pokemon Trainer (New)
Prediction - 38%

Nominations:
Muddy Mole x3
Porky x2

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Waluigi prediction - 20%

Thinking about this, I can't really see Waluigi making it on to the roster. He seems like he will remain as an assist trophy. His moveset potential is shaky at best....he doesn't really have any moves he can really call his own.....it's all just tennis racquets and golf clubs. I'm guessing he'll be an assist trophy again.

Waluigi want - 3%

I don't have any desire for him. Maybe a tiny sliver just because it would give Luigi a rival....but then I would rather King Boo filled that role if anyone.

Pokemon Trainer (Kanto) - 65%

Pokemon Trainer (Other Region) - 70%

I think there's a fair chance they might want to shake up the Pokemon Trainer and keep him fresh.

Nominations:

Chibi Robo X3
Robin X2

 

[cephalopod17]

WAA's Chances: 30%
I feel that he has the least chance for the possibly non-existent Mario slot. He never appeared in any main Mario game and he has a significant hatebase, unlike Bowser Jr. and Toad (They have hatebases to, but smaller)

WAA's Want: 20%
He'd be a fun joke character and would be amusing to play as, but I would want Paper Mario, Toad or Bowser Jr. before him.

Pokémon Trainer (Gen 1): 80%

New Pokémon Trainer: 40%

 

[Erimir]

But really he's got a 50 / 50 shot like every other Mario character for Smash 4.

Unless you think it's likely that there will be 2 or 3 Mario newcomers, they can't have 50/50 chances. If you think Mario is likely to get only one newcomer (let's say, 80% chance) and there are four characters competing for it, and you think they have equal chances, then they should each have a 20% chance.

Pokemon Trainer (Kanto) - 65%

Pokemon Trainer (Other Region) - 70%

You realize this prediction means that you think people think there's at least a 35% chance we'll see TWO Pokemon Trainer characters in the game.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likly hood 50/50
If warios in then he gets this possible the only the bringing him down is the competition between bowser jr toad and paper Mario

Want 70%
I want to see a Mario vs luigi vs wario vs Waluigi in this game

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I promised you all a 30 Day Review. Unfortunately, inspiration didn't really strike me. So instead of that, you're getting this picture here:

View attachment 1813

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?


EDIT: Remade picture with better software.

That's so perfect except for Isaac unless he's a namco character nevermind

Oh double post by the way

 

[APC99]

Likelihood: 35%. Although Waluigi is original, he has as much chance as Bowser Junior and Paper Mario. I see Toad as being more likely to get in.

WANT: 80%. If he gets an original moveset with eggplants, vines, bob-ombs and pure strangeness, Waluigi is one of my most-wanted characters thanks to a certain web-comic artist who uses such character in an odd fashion that has people constantly screeching "WALUIGI TIME!".

Red the Pokemon Trainer: 80%. If they continue the pattern from Melee & Brawl, ALL STARTERS WILL RETURN. So I'm going to say that Red (or just generic Pokemon Trainer ) will get in. However, there IS a small amount of doubt.

New Pokemon Trainer: 40%. I can't see why there has to be only ONE Pokemon Trainer . But in reality, I feel it's a little less likely due to the theory that starters always return.

 

[Wegenbarth]

Likelihood: 50%
WANT: 100%

 

[Toxicroaker]

Waluigi: 4%
cons:

• he has not been in any main stream games
• an uncountable number of people hate him
• he is not very well known
• he has much competition from others in his series like Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario

pros:

• he was an assist trophy last game

Want: 15% I actually seriously LOVE him in his mario games the only problem is that he is not nearly as important as many other characters in the mario series and I would be disappointed if he got in instead of bowser jr.

Pokemon trainer: 91% people put him to high

x5 zoroark

 

[PrincessAzula]

Waluigi: 7%

Want: 20%
He could have an interesting moveset, but I hope it's not sports-related.

PT: 75%

Nominations:
Impa x5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Waluigi

Chance: 10%
Want: -80% (can be counted as 0)

He is heavily outclassed by other potential Mario characters as Toad, Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario. No importance to the series whatsoever, and no big roles, not even small ones :/ He's a filler in Mario sport games with a little added troll personality. His best role today still being the intro of Mario Power Tennis. No please.

Impa x 5

 

[Groose]

This is your friendly neighborhood Groose with a little public service announcement: while the day normally should have ended by now, I'm going to extend it for probably another 20 hours or so. I apologize for the inconvienince; I had a minor surgery. The painkillers I'm on are making my mind a bit dopey, and I really just can't be bothered to update right now. I'm going to take a nice long nap and then try to straighten my mind for a bit; when I'm done, updating the day is the first thing I'll do. As I said, sorry for the inconvience; it's ironic because I'm not even in pain and the medicine I'm taking is mostly a precaution.

For what reason? I was wondering why Peasley was listed as ineligible as well.

Does Peasly appear in the new Mario and Luigi: Dream Team? If so, I'll make him eligible. But the last I heard of him, he was a minor character from a game that's over ten years old. Don't get me wrong; I like him even more than Fawful; problem is, he's completely irrelevant and forgotten to the best of my knowledge. Unless if I'm wrong and he has appeared since Superstar Saga, he's currently barred because he'd be a wasted day, performing worse than even Owain, Sandbag, and Omastar. The people playing this game have spoken; they don't enjoy mindlessly throwing out zeroes as scores because of 'troll' and 'who's that?' characters.

Once we get the majority of characters who actually have a chance out of the way, I'll open him up for nominations again. And because he's Prince 'Freaking Peasly, I'll probably join you in nominating him when that time comes.

 

[Groose]

That's a good question. Why aren't Scrooge McDuck votes prohibited?

I believe it was SSBF's decision that if a character did not originate from a video game but had an important role in one on a Nintendo system, they could be nominated. I think it's still somewhere in the OP if you take a look. Even so, when my mind clears from its current state of fog, I will investigate this matter and perhaps bar him.

Oh, but I already just flat out delete the 10 Noms someone had for Gaston from Beauty and the Beast. I didn't even put them on hold, I just flat out deleted them. Now that's a troll character if I've ever seen one. It must have been SSBF or Habenero that allowed him to be nominated in the first place; I would never have stood for it.

 

[Opossum]

No one has their votes deleted from Rate Their Chances like Gaston!

 

[shinhed-echi]

Brawl Vault needs to make a Gaston mod for Captain Falcon, lol.

 

[Groose]

No one has their votes deleted from Rate Their Chances like Gaston!

Before I lie down to sleep, I consider it my civic duty to leave you all with this image:

 

[AfricanSanta]

Waluigi chances- 30%- Just like every Mario character, he has lots of competition. I'd say Bowser Jr. is more likely.

Waluigi want- 50%- I kind of like him. I'd rather have Bowser Jr. or Paper Mario though.

Pokemon Trainer Kanto- 83%
Pokemon Trainer other region- 20%

Nominations:
Genesect x2
Mallo x3

 

[loganhogan]

Waluigi: 15%
He's kind of popular but not important and outclassed by his competition who are important.

Want: 0% I don't like him.

 

[Starcutter]

Wait... We can't vote for the ultimate chimera? Darn, was planning on voting for it after kamek went up for rating. I mean, he's important enough in mother 3 and brawl...

 

[Swift Fox]

Waluigi
likelihood: 1%

• Way less deserved than other Mario characters like Bowser Jr, Ninja Toad (jk about ninja part), and even Paper Mario. I'm sure there are more to come but I cannot think of any right now. I just can feel that Waluigi is way less deserved regardless.
• It'd be forced when he got into SSB.

DO WAAAANT: 0%

Blame me

 

[TheCreator]

I want to see Impa come up to rate their chances, so she'll get squashed.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Wait... We can't vote for the ultimate chimera? Darn, was planning on voting for it after kamek went up for rating. I mean, he's important enough in mother 3 and brawl...

Out of all possible Mother newcomers the UC definitely hits rock bottom. Then take into consideration that Mother most likely won't get a newcomer at all, and how impossible a character he'd be to implement, and he's obviously getting written off. In both Mother 3 and Brawl he's nothing more than an obstacle to avoid either way, he fit perfectly as a stage hazard.

 

[FalKoopa]

I want to see Impa come up to rate their chances, so she'll get squashed.

Hmm, though I want to see the discrepancy in the want %s between users who have and who haven't been affected by the propaganda.

The best part would be to see Shiek (hopefully) curb-stomping Impa in likelihood and want.

@Groose
Would Primid be considered as a troll vote?

 

[Groose]

OKAY, I'm here and I'm doing my calculations and updating the nominations list/

Hmm, though I want to see the discrepancy in the want %s between users who have and who haven't been affected by the propaganda.

The best part would be to see Shiek (hopefully) curb-stomping Impa in likelihood and want.

@Groose
Would Primid be considered as a troll vote?

A 'troll' or a 'waste' character is a character that you know won't break two or three percent chance at best. There's no point in nominating those in front of characters that may score in the twenties and thirties.

Personally, I'd say no. If there is a Smash original character, Primid would probably be the easiest to make, I think one could score fairly well.

I want to see Impa come up to rate their chances, so she'll get squashed.

Then nominate her by all means. She's definitely not a wasted day. People like her that only have twenty votes are what makes me made that your Omastars and such have forty.

Wait... We can't vote for the ultimate chimera? Darn, was planning on voting for it after kamek went up for rating. I mean, he's important enough in mother 3 and brawl...

There are bigger fish to fry in the Mother universe. If you think that the Ultimate Chimera can score above a few percent in chance, I will open it for nominations again. But as is, I think the majority of people view the Ultimate Chimera as a very unlikely newcomer.

And around the time Kamek gets up for nomination is about when I was going to open all characters back up for renomination anyway.So chances are you won't have to worry.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

The only issue I would take up with the troll characters not being allowed, is that I feel fairly confident saying the Wii Fit Trainer would have been considered a troll character.

Maybe instead of doing one troll character a day, group them together in one day? Then if by some chance they do make it into the game, at least we can say we rated them.