Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Fatmanonice]

Dillon

Chance of being playable: 25%- Nintendo doesn't really have a history of having minor franchises get playable spots and Dillon's Rolling Western is pretty minor.Look at Brawl. Most of the assist trophies were characters from minor franchises and even growing stars like Issac fell in this category. This being said, Dillon's more likely to be this.

Chance of being an Assist Trophy: 90%- Again, Dillon is very similar to Jill, Starfy, Ray, Saki, and Issac in that he's well liked... but only by the people who have actually played his games which is still very, very small overall.

Want: 50%- He looks interesting but I know virtually nothing about the character aside from some what I've seen in footage and reading the Wiki page so I'm fairly neutral on him.

Waluigi

Chance of being playable: 60%- I honestly think he's in a good position for being playable. His popularity in both the East and West has grown significantly since Brawl and his addition as an assist trophy in Brawl could potentially act as a stepping stool. He's also interesting in that he qualifies as both a Mario and a Wario character so he could potentially bypass the "too many Mario characters" conundrum that some argue hurt Bowser Jr and Toad. The elephant in the room, however, is that in the grand scheme of Mario, he's not significant at all and is more of a humorous footnote. He's been a staple of the spinoffs since mid 2000 and a runaway fan favorite but he has yet to make a canon appearance in anything. To his benefit though whether this weighs significantly on Sakurai's choices is hard to say at this point and time.

Want: 90%- I used to absolutely abhor the idea of him being playable in Smash Bros due to his lack of significance but since Brawl he's become one of my favorite Mario characters thanks to Brawl in the Family and my own drawings of him. Aside from Mario, he's also the main character I use in the Mario spinoff games so to have him playable in Smash simply seems like the next step for me.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 30%
Want: 100%

Pokemon Trainer: 62%
New Pokemon Trainer: 56%

Karate Joe x5

 

[SonicMario]

Likelihood: 30%

If there must be a new Mario character that isn't another Mario (That means not counting Paper Mario), Waluigi I think has a shot just as much was Toad or Bowser Jr. does. They all have their pros and cons against eachother. But I think ultimately if there's an open spot, only one can get it. I do believe the Mario newcomer spot right now is Musical chairs between Toad, Bowser Jr, Waluigi, and Paper Mario right about now. But of course there's always the chance the chair was never there in the first place

Want: 75%

I'd say I actually kinda want Waluigi more then Toad or Bowser Jr. Not just for the sake of the humor that will be used alot upon his inclusion within the SSB fanbase. But also his build could make him pretty unique. We've already had small fries with speed which I assume Toad and Bowser Jr. would have. But Waluigi's tall and lanky. His long arms and legs would give him a longer reach then most of the other characters. Imagine Waluigi's grab! Also his personality would be great for Smash. I would be looking forward what they have him do for Taunts and Victory celebrations.

However, I know because he never really appeared as a mainstream Mario character (Though he could be used to represent the sports series as a whole) he's not a sure thing. And I wouldn't be too upset if he didn't end up game. There's always the chance we get some WAAAAAAAA for SSB5.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I'd be surprised if we didn't do a revote on Ridley within the next two weeks, though. The fact that he lost to King K. Rool by less than a quarter of a percent will probably rub some people the wrong way.

After Ganondorf I'll be sure to throw all of my nominations to Ridley.

 

[XenothiumX]

Waluigi
Likelihood: 50%
Waluigi's creation kind of seemed more like a promotion for Wario giving him a partner and all. Although, he did become an assist trophy; so he has made it in to smash, but as for playability I do think he's got a chance.

Want: 67.5%
His assist trophy appearance does make me feel like he does deserve a spot in smash, but I wouldn't care if he made it or not. I would like to play as him, but I wouldn't main him unless he was broken good.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 82%
New Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 15%

Nominations:
Saki Amamiya x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Waluigi's biggest threat is his own series. Toad, Paper Mario, and Bowser Jr. are all heavyweights. Waluigi does have two advantages over them: he was an AT, and as the Anti-Luigi, he completes the rectangle of Mario Bros. vs.... Wario Bros.? which would make for obvious matchups. His main issue is his lack of appearances in any non-spinoff games. If there were a "Super Waluigi Land" game, or even a Wario Land game or something where he's another character, he'd rise above his competitors. As it stands now, at best he's no more likely than any of them... and probably less likely.

35% Waluigi

predict Red: 79%
predict Gen II-VI Trainer: 56%

nom Saki Amamiya x5

 

[Starbound]

Chances for WAAA: 19%
Lack of moveset is the big problem for me IMO. Sure there's the Mario Party mini-games... but something about that strikes me as weird.

WAAAAnt: 2%
Hilarious but I'd be disappointed if we got him

Nom: Palutena x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Chance: 18% If Mario gets a new rep Waluigi isn't the most likely to be added but he certainly is up there!
Want: 0% TOO BAD WALUIGI TIME! 100% 39% =.=

PT prediction: 70.67% I really don't see why he would be leaving but then again I=/=everybody
New PT: 27% Ehhh I doubt it's happening though it would be cool

Nomz: Mr. Game and Watch x4
Bulborb x1 What? Fine then!
Mr. Game and Watch's evil clone... Mr. Lame and Watch x1
OK FINE! Mr. Game and Watch x5!

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Waluigi chance=16%

Waluigi want=5% He's funny, but I wouldn't want him in before a long list of other characters.

Red prediction=50%

Other prediction=50%

Nomination=5xVaati

 

[Erimir]

Groose: Just noticed, there really should just be a link to this for Toon Link: Wind Waker Symphonic Movement

Waluigi

Popularity: Well, he has a cult following, but I don't think he's very prominent among the general public. I think he's just a semi-filler character for Mario Kart and Sports and such to them. He does have WAY more personality than the others created just to fill out the roster.

Relevancy: He's been a staple of Mario spin-off games and is arguably the most natural "representative" of the Mario spin-offs since he was introduced there and is exclusive to them. He was also an AT in Brawl, which has to help at least a little bit. I'm not sure how much tho, there's no precedent there yet.

Design: He would most likely need a move set that draws from Mario Sports, Mario Kart and Mario Party. He could also get some connection to Wario or completely made up moves. It's more of a question of picking among the choices.

Roster and Competition: Well, here's the problem. He's competing against other Mario characters and IMO also competing against the Mii. Because the things Miis have to draw on for moves are very similar to what Waluigi has (Wii Sports, Wii Party, Wii Play, etc.). And there's no guarantee that the Mario series will be getting any new characters in the first place.

Waluigi chances: 9%
In the end, he's just not a very important character, a new Mario rep isn't guaranteed, and he's competing against some heavy hitters like Bowser Jr, Toad and Mii. But he is still among the most likely Mario characters.

Waluigi want: 54%
I'd prefer him to the more generic implementations of the Mii. Compared to the Mii-as-video-game-player, I'm not so sure. He has a decent amount of personality and would have fun taunts and quotes and things, but I won't be upset if he doesn't get in. Also fun: pervy jokes when he fights against Lucas or Mega Man, etc.

Pokemon Trainer (Red) prediction: 75%
Probably gonna be quite a bit lower than Lucario due to the fact that he's three characters in one, thus a juicy target to cut if they're running low on time and he still needs a lot of work. And the fact that some people think there's a chance he'll be replaced with another Pokemon Trainer.

Any new Pokemon Trainer prediction: 16%
I don't know what to predict here. In my view, cutting Red for a new one is very unlikely. But people seem to think they'll get some numbers, so I'll go in between.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

This is smash boards where we're cynacle

I wouldn't normally just correct someone's spelling, but that is amazingly wrong haha (It's cynical)

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Waluigi llikelyhood 23%: Mario might not get a rep, and if it did it would probably be bowser jr or toad. The fact that waluigi has NEVER even been mentioned in a Mario OR Wario adventure game crushes his chances
Want 35: I like picking him in the spinoffs, but he doesnt feel right for smash

Old pokemon trainer 60%
New pokemon trainer 40%
Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I wouldn't normally just correct someone's spelling, but that is amazingly wrong haha (It's cynical)

Stop being paedantik! I was cooking dinner at the time, so it's understandable my spelling was off...

 

[---]

Waluigi - 35%
Want - 55%

Don't really feel like getting in depth with him. I like him more than the other possible Mario newcomers, and I can honestly see him realistically getting in, but he's not someone I would bet on.

 

[Smasher 101]

WAA chances: 15%
Want: 25% - Would much rather have Bowser Jr. I'd like him more than Toad or Paper Mario, though.

Pokémon Trainer Red prediction: 70%
New Pokémon Trainer prediction: 30%

Nominating Samurai Goroh x5

 

[Homelessvagrant]

Likelihood: 5% - There really isn't anything Waluigi has going for him really. He's coming from a series that is already has an unnecessary amount of potential representation. That and we don't even know if the Mario series will be getting another rep. With four strong reps and three psuedo reps already on the roster...

Want: 0% - I've come to believe that no given character is a waste of a character slot. Having said that, Waluigi would be a waste of a character slot.

I await patiently for tomorrow.

 

[FalKoopa]

Too Bad, Waluigi Time!

Likelihood: 20%
He loses out to Toad and Bowser Jr., I think. Being an assist trophy helps, though.

Want: 80%
Making Tinguigi and Waluigiygas has made me a fan of him, honestly.

Pokémon Trainer Prediction: 82%

Noms: Vaati x 5

 

[Opossum]

Just realized I forgot to give Waluigi a WAAAAAnt. I'll go 50% Because Waluigi likes this, and Waluigi hates this.

 

[Sebz]

Waluigi~ 15%
Eh, I think Bowser Jr and Paper Mario have more of a shot than him.

Want~ 10%
Sure it would be nice to have all the colored caps fighting each other, but he's just sooo annoying.

PT~ 76%

Noms:
Genesect x5

 

[ToothiestAura]

Waluigi:

Chances: 25%
I feel there is a very distinct possibility that Waluigi would be playable. He's relatively popular and it's about time Luigi had an arch rival to square-off against (I mean Mario gets Bowser and Wario, come on). I see him being a fairly unique character, but I also think Bowser Jr. (and maybe Toad) has him beat in popularity polls.

Want: 22%
Waluigi is funny - having him as more than just an Assist Trophy would be great. I would probably rather Bowser Jr. But Waluigi would be an acceptable substitute.

 

[Deleted member]

Waluigi
Chance: 10%
Waluigi doesn't have that good of chances in my opinion. While he is popular, he is equally as hated. One thing that would ruin his chances is his gaming profile. What I mean is that he hasn't really been in any major games outside of Mario spin-offs and he hasn't had any major roles in Mario games outside of being the main antagonist of... Dance Dance Revolution: Mario Mix (I guess I could throw in the fact that he has his own board in Mario Party 3). Waluigi hasn't even appeared in any of Wario's games either. This does definitely hurt his chances as Sakurai wouldn't feel that he is important. If Waluigi were to get in, he would either be an Assist Trophy again or he will be a last minute addition because I highly doubt that Sakurai is going to make Waluigi a higher priority than Luigi and Wario (who are already on that whiteboard drawing for SSB4).
Want: 0%
I don't want it to be Waluigi Time. (OK, I like the meme, but I'm not a fan of Waluigi) He was created to be Wario's doubles partner in Mario Tennis, a role that can be fulfilled by anyone else (Wart, a Piranha Plant, etc.) and he exists to be Luigi's rival that Luigi doesn't really need. I would be upset if Waluigi was in SSB4 over Bowser Jr.
Pokemon Trainer Red Prediction: 66.8%
I don't think he will get as high of scores tomorrow, but there will be some significant scores regardless.
New Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 26.4%
I don't really think that the other trainers will get in over Red.
Nominations: Ganondorf 5x

 

[Primid]

Waluigi Chances: 35% He's a fairly popular character that has appeared in pretty much every Mario party game. Waluigi would make a good rival for Luigi and I think he'd have a great potential for being a very funny character with a unique moveset. His only barrier is the competition with Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Toad.
Waluigi Want: 90% I think he'd be really cool. I was kind of disappointed when I first played Brawl and saw Wario on the roster, but no Waluigi. I understand why Wario was added, but there felt like there was void that only a goofy character like Waluigi could fill. I think he'd be a great addition, though I wouldn't mind if he reprised his role as an assist trophy.

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[shinhed-echi]

WALUIGI:
Chance - 25%
The only reason why I think Sakurai would want to include this fellow would be to have both pair of plumber bros in the game, and to appeal to a more casual crowd who's more familiar with Mario characters only.
But he's got a bunch of things against him, like Wario trying to represent his own series (Warioware or Warioland) in which Waluigi has made no appearances at (a brief Warioware microgame cameo can't count for much), Sakurai not wanting to over represent certain series, along with the much more deserving Mario characters like TOAD for example who's been a recurring character since the very first Super Mario Bros game, and thus, Sakurai wanting to represent new franchises which have yet debuted in SSB.


Want - 1%
Assist trophy is more than fine for Waluigi. I really think there should be no newcomers to Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Star Fox, Fire Emblem and Mother... Unless they were either veteran characters returning, or quickie clones made at the very last minute because it's the only thing they could do with the time/resource leftovers


Nominate Pokemon Trainer (Red) 100%

 

[jaytalks]

Waluigi Walikelihood: Finally, the moment I have been waiting for! Waluigi's Walikelihood is 25%. I've thought about this, and the role he would serve (as a rep for party, kart, and sports games) could be served by Daisy. Daisy. No disrespect to either fanbases, but there isn't a real calling to see this moveset, or other mario characters would have it (aside from Peach, who uses it for her side smash at random). he doesn't cut it as a rep for a wario serios considering how little he actually represents the series, and there are other more important characters to mario lore. If the Wario series gets another rep, it would probably be actually someone from the Wario Series. Wario does not need a partner because his default skin is based on his Wario Ware appearance, where Waluigi is an evil video game maker rather than a plumber.

And for anyone who claims he has made in Brawl appearance over Toad, Toad has appeared in Smash since Melee. He is Peach's neutral special.

Waluigi WaWant: 10%. Not really interest in another overall wearing mario universe character. Doesn't bring anything new to the table that other characters bring. And have literally never picked him mario kart, party, tennis etc.

Old Pokemon Trainer 70.45%
New Pokemon trainer 20.21%

Nominations: Geno x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Wahhh
Chance: 15%
Yes he does have somewhat of a chance, whether or not we like it. He could be a representative of the mario spinoff games, and theres alot of them.

Want: 25%
I somewhat have a connection to this character. Mario tennis was one of the first spinoff games I owned, so ive always connected him to those games. Although its mostly hate, he has a special place in my heart

Pokemon Trainer: 80%
New Pokemon Trainer: 15%

Noms:
Rayman x5

 

[Ephecus]

WAAluigi

Chance: 8 %
The niche Waluigi fills is already contested by Toad, Paper Mario, Bowser Jr. and even Daisy (to a lesser extend though). His chances are pretty slim and his only saving grace is his appearance as assist trophy.

Want: 12 %
He'd get annoying after a while. He already annoys me in Brawl.

Prediction:
Red - 72 %
New Pokémon Trainer - 45 %

Nominations:
3x R.O.B.
2x Medusa

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Waluigi Chances: 5%. Outside of being well known Waluigi really doesn't have much going for him. Unlike Wario he has not developed his own following, he has at least a fair amount of hate, and he has feirce competition from others in an already sufficiently represented series. He has an identity but you really have to read between the lines to see it as he is mostly in Mario sports, Mario Kart, and Mario Party. Quite frankly he just isn't that interesting and I have a heard time imaging him inspiring Sakurai. But he still gets a 1/20 chance which isn't so terrible because there again a lot of people know who he is, he is part of a hugely popular franchise, and who knows what guys on in the mind of Sakurai.

Waluigi Want: 15% I don't want him. I don't like him. Honestly I suspect he was invented simply to give Luigi a counterpart the way Mario has one. He has a personality but it is one that doesn't interest me. That said, I guess he could be kinda interesting, and there are definitely those I want to see less.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 60% He's a veteran so I think he'll get over 50% on principle, but he seems to be considered eve more likely then Lucario to get the boot. Or maybe not. I don't give theses predictions that much thought. People are hard to place.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Likelihood: 30%
In order for the WAAAA to be a realistic character choice, he'd have to have a moveset that displayed his abilities in his games. This means that most of his moveset would be based around Mario Party and the various sports spinoffs. Honestly, he's better off as an Assist Trophy.

Want: 37.5%
If he got in, I'd chuckle. And then never play as him.

Pokémon Trainer prediction: 84%
New Trainer: 27%

Nominate:
Tetra x2
Toon Zelda x1
N x1
Klonoa x1

 

[Opossum]

Nominate:
Tetra x2
Toon Zelda x1
N x1
Klonoa x1

You can't re-vote Toon Zelda or Tetra until 30 days have passed. Welcome to Smashboards, though!

 

[Seraphim.]

Waluigi

Chance: 27%
Want: 0%

Pokemon Trainer: 83%
New Trainer: 12%

ROB x5

 

[Forde]

Waluigi

Prediction 15% I really don't see him having much of a chance. I'd rather see Bowser junior, rather than Waluigi.

Want: 5% I really don't like him, don't want him in SSB4.

Pokemon Trainer: 80%

Now, I have a question about the nominations. Being as I'm a forum noob, I'm not entirely sure how it works. Is there a finite pool of people we can select from to nominate, such as the list on the first page? Or could I nominate just some new character not listed on the front page?

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

You can't re-vote Toon Zelda or Tetra until 30 days have passed. Welcome to Smashboards, though!

Sorry, forgot they'd already been nominated. In that case, changing my vote to Klonoa x2, N x1, Skull Kid x1, Kunio-Kun x1. Also, thanks!

 

[Swamp Sensei]

WAAAA: 21%
He's got a shot but....it's WAAA! He's kinda hated. His hatebase is almost as bad as Tingle.

Want: 65%
I'd use him. He'd be a lot of laughs.

ACTUAL Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 76%
New (Lame) Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 34%
I think most people see Red staying if we get PT again.

Nominations:
R.O.B.
Lucas
Ganondorf
Sonic
Snake

 

[colder_than_ice]

Waluigi
Chance: 34% - Waluigi has never made an appearance outside a Mario spinoff, having never appeared in a main series Mario game or even a Wario game. He is popular however, and Super Smash Bros is sort of a spinoff itself so he should feel right at home as a playable character.
Want: 47% - I don't want him in ahead of Toad.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 93%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Waluigi

Chance- 8% - As far as I'm concerned, he's beaten badly in completion by both Toad and Browser Jr. He may stand some small chance, but I just don't see it.

Want - 53% - He'll be funny for a bit, I guess. Don't really care much.


Gen. I Trainer Prediction - 90% - I'm going to be bold here, and say that there are a lot of people who think he will return.
Other Trainers Prediction - 35% - But these probably won't be all too good.

Nominations
ROB X 5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Waluigi
Likelihood: 24% There's all these characters dancing around the 'new Mario rep spot' (if there actually is one), but I feel like Waluigi's less likely than most of the others. He's not really that important in any of the games he appears in either.
Want: 70% I like Waluigi, mainly because I had a really fun Brawl hack of him over Pit back in my Brawl-hacking days. His moves were funny and he was actually pretty good too. But I'd rather Bowser Jr. got in than WAAH!!.

Pokemon Trainer: 80%
New trainer: 20%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Waluigi

Likelihood: 15% - I think he's behind several Mario characters if we get a new Mario rep, he did not had any real importance in the games he was featured, he was just kind of there
Want: 0% - No thanks

Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 76%
New Trainer: 23%

Nominations:
Zoroark x2
Wolf x3

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Waluigi

Chance: 25% - He doesn't seem to be a really big character in the Mario series. Still, he got acknowledgement from Sakurai as an assist trophy so there's that.

Want: 45% - I don't really want any more Mario characters. But if Sakurai can pull off a fun troll character with him then I'm ok with it. I hear he can air swim or something...and he might bring that crotch chop as a taunt.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 78% - Playable Charizard! Everyone loves that. Sakurai loves that!
New Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 38% - Few think a new PT is necessary.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[Xenigma]

WAAAAAAAAAA - 5%
Simply put, he's just not important enough to be a new Mario rep. He's the eternal side character, created to fill a niche in Mario Tennis and forever doomed to appear in Mario spin-offs to party and play sports and what not. Waluigi has yet to do anything of any real significance, and until such point Nintendo deigns to give him a game of his own or at least attempt to boost his profile as a legitimate antagonist, he's going to stay that way. Sure, he's got personality, and he's got moveset potential, but he's lacking any real reason to actually include him, so unless Sakurai knows something about the character's future that we don't, I don't see him becoming playable. Consider him a near lock for repeat Assist Trophy status, though, because he's absolutely perfect for that role.
WAAAAAAAANT - 25% - Really, this is almost entirely because of his personality in Brawl in the Family, just like I kind of want Adeleine should the stars align.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction - 85%
Should get a lot of very high ratings, and justifiably so.

New Pokemon Trainer Prediction - 15%
Suffers purely because of how well Gen 1 Trainer should do, since having two Trainers seems awfully unlikely.

Nominations
R.O.B. x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Sorry, forgot they'd already been nominated. In that case, changing my vote to Klonoa x2, N x1, Skull Kid x1, Kunio-Kun x1. Also, thanks!

Your avatar cracks me up

 

[Groose]

This is your friendly neighborhood Groose with a little public service announcement:

Due to a real-life interest, I probably will have to extend this day for a little while. I'll see you all when I can once again man a computer.

This is certainly not due to Waluigi blackmailing me to extend his day in the limelight.