Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelyhood: 30%
Want: 80%

Waluigi: 22.5%

Karate Joe x5

 

[---]

Dillion - 50%
Want - 50%

Not much to say, would probably be the best bet for an e-Shop rep. Would be very surprised if there wasn't at least some Rolling Western content though, especially in the 3DS version.

 

[Deleted member]

I feared that we would eventually had to rate on characters such as Magikarp soon... thank god that isn't going to happen.

Dillon
Chances: 33%
I would've rated him a bit lower since he appeared in only two games that appeared on the eShop (which I should mention that not everyone can connect to the Internet with their 3DS and therefore wouldn't know much about him). However, he does have qualities that Sakurai is looking for. He is a pretty unique character that can bring a unique moveset; he can bring something new to the Smash Bros. universe that no one else in the roster already has. While his moves would involve rolling and such, I don't think that Sakurai would make his moveset very identical to Sonic's. However, Dillon seems to be more of a character that would be an Assist Trophy rather than a fighter. But who knows?
Want: 55%
I've never played his games, so he isn't a character that I support really. However, I love uniqueness and I love variety and Dillon does offer that.
Waluigi Prediction: 22.3%
He's a character that I don't think will get rated very high. Looks like tomorrow is Waluigi Time...
Nominations: Ganondorf 5x

 

[Ephecus]

Dillon

Chance: 35 %
Being a character from a new series not already being represented makes him a solid contender for this spot, however:
- His franchise exists solely in the e-shop
- His franchise is relatively new
- His franchise didn't sell astonishingly well

Want: 55 %
Thinking of an armadillo as a fighter you would naturally think of something along the lines of a slower Sonic. However Dillon having ranged projectiles he has potential for a fun new moveset. This said I personally don't know much about him and he isn't one of the characters I want to get in.

Waluigi prediction: 32 %
He grew quite a fanbase as well as a hatebase. Tomorrow will definately be a very interesting day.

Nominations:
4x R.O.B.
1x Medusa

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Dillon:

Chance: 23%
I honestly think he's too new to have been properly put forward as a character for 4, which is a shame, but I think if he did get considered his chances are quite high. He's a cool character, from an up and coming Nintendo franchise, with great move set potential, and he look. so. cool! Sadly I think, given his lateness to the party, he's gonna be relegated to Assist Trophy, but as I said, he's got a high chance if he gets considered. For the record I give him a 99.9% chance of getting in the game in some form, even if it is just a sticker/trophy; he's new, so playable is unlikely, but there'll be some representation of him.

Want: 100%
He's in my signature...


Waaaaaaaahh!
11.11% Because one sounds the most like Waah!

Actual Waluigi:
19.22%
He's a Mario character so people will vote for him.


Slime*5 (I'm Gooing to run out of puns at this rate)

 

[Groose]

I promised you all a 30 Day Review. Unfortunately, inspiration didn't really strike me. So instead of that, you're getting this picture here:

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?

EDIT: Remade picture with better software.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Dillion chances:
10%: Its just to soon for him to be put in, they have a lot of other characters that deserve to be in more than him, and they dont even have enough space for all of them. Maybe in the next smash game

Want 5%: Basically the same reason as his chances

Waluigi: 15%


Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

I promised you all a 30 Day Review. Unfortunately, inspiration didn't really strike me. So instead of that, you're getting this picture here:View attachment 1803

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?

is that your personal list or the community's? Just curios.

 

[Groose]

is that your personal list or the community's? Just curios.

That's the ten characters we've rated that have scored the highest, ranked in order. So it's the community's. I just transcribed it

Of course, since I don't have photoshop on this computer, paint had to suffice. Please excuse... the roughness of it all.

 

[MargnetMan23]

I promised you all a 30 Day Review. Unfortunately, inspiration didn't really strike me. So instead of that, you're getting this picture here:View attachment 1803

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?

It's beautiful man :,) but I'm not sure about it becoming the newcomers list the other version was a bit more... Umm... More...

 

[Cheezey Bites]

However Dillon having ranged projectiles he has potential for a fun new moveset.

Those ranged projectiles really are a lot more useful than those melee ones, eh?

But seriously, do you mean the dynamite or making towers? 'Cos he's really a melee fighter. Burrow is a good fit for the move set though, which would make him very different to sonic.

 

[Groose]

It's beautiful man :,) but I'm not sure about it becoming the newcomers list the other version was a bit more... Umm... More...

Personally, I'd be satisfied if it became the newcomer's list.Yeah, the choices are kind of boring, but it still hits the major characters I'd want.

Ironically, these are the only characters who scored over a 50% chance. It just so happened there were ten of them.

I'm planning to do a list of the top ten WANTED characters, too, but it may not be up until tomorrow. It largely includes the same characters, but in a different order and with a new person or two.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Personally, I'd be satisfied if it became the newcomer's list.Yeah, the choices are kind of boring, but it still hits the major characters I'd want.

Ironically, these are the only characters who scored over a 50% chance. It just so happened there were ten of them.

I'm planning to do a list of the top ten WANTED characters, too, but it may not be up until tomorrow. It largely includes the same characters, but in a different order and with a new person or two.

Well all that would primarily do would be knocking mii off his throne XD

 

[Ephecus]

Those ranged projectiles really are a lot more useful than those melee ones, eh?

But seriously, do you mean the dynamite or making towers? 'Cos he's really a melee fighter. Burrow is a good fit for the move set though, which would make him very different to sonic.

Either I misread someone or I plainly just made things up but I thought he has something similar to a gun.
As I already said I really don't know much about him but thanks for clearing up my misunderstanding.

And by the way: Yes, building towers and placing dynamite do make a pretty good moveset.

 

[Knight Dude]

Dillon's Chances: 40% - I do see that Dillon has a fanbase. I do think that he's moveset potential gives him a bit of a chance. But he's still a pretty new character, so he's far from an all-star. He'd be fitting for the 3DS version, especially if Sakurai wants to add newer characters.

Want: 80% - Like I said, I do think he's got some potential. He just fits so well with a lot of the other Nintendo characters. And I would like to see some newer characters in Smash 4. Not much else than that.

I nominate Ganondorf 5 times again.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Dillon chance=7%

Dillon want=3%

Waluigi prediction=10%

I would be pissed if that were the newcomers list.

Nomination=5xVaati

 

[Groose]

So, I made part two as promised. I'm putting this one and the other one on the OP as a "Day 30 Review"

 

[MargnetMan23]

So, I made part two as promised. I'm putting this one and the other one on the OP as a "Day 30 Review"

View attachment 1806

Can you make a chart for the bottom 10 too?

 

[Gam3rALO]

I promised you all a 30 Day Review. Unfortunately, inspiration didn't really strike me. So instead of that, you're getting this picture here:View attachment 1803

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?

I promised you all a 30 Day Review. Unfortunately, inspiration didn't really strike me. So instead of that, you're getting this picture here:View attachment 1803

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?

As long as it has little mac and Pac man and those other charecters are on. that would be awesome except for Dixie.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

At least it has Shulk on it.

 

[Groose]

Can you make a chart for the bottom 10 too?

I plan on doing a "The Rest" picture from the chance point of view. Of course, this one will take me longer than the other one; an hour at the least.

At least it has Shulk on it.

Shulk placed eleventh in chance so far, but he is sixth in want. It will be a few days before Shulk opens for renomination; I suggest you hop on it when it's his turn.

As long as it has little mac and Pac man and those other charecters are on. that would be awesome except for Dixie.

Pac-Man did miss the wanted top ten, but he sits comfortably in the ninth spot on the chance top ten. Unfortunately, I don't even think a renomination day can give him a big enough boost to breach the wanted top ten.

Fortunately, Mac is the one character everyone thinks is a shoo-in. He's in the top four wanted to boot, too. Interestingly enough, I spent the entire time I was making the two pics blasting the Punch-Out theme song.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Dillon
Likelihood: 10% He's more likely to get a stage from his game or make an appearance as an assist trophy or something else than a spot on the roster.
Want: 10% I don't know anything about him, considering I had to google him to find out who he was. I wouldn't be upset if he made it in, but I think there are a lot more deserving characters than Dillon.

Waluigi: 30%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

chances: 40%.
Want: 50%.
Waluigi prediction: 30%
Skull Kid X5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dillon
Chance: 38%. Dammit, we need some newer IPs...to represent current Nintendo, and Dillon is the best rep we have for that, as well as for the E-shop.

Want: 90% Dillon's in my top five personal wants, so yes I'd love him to be in. I do feel like we need some newer IP reps, since the newest franchise in Smash is what? Pikmin? That's twelve years old this year at least. Dillon has two games under his cowboy belt so far and he looks like he'd fit in well with the cast.

WAA prediction: 27%. I don't see him doing as well as the other three Mario reps done so far in terms of chance, but I think in terms of want he'll score higher than Toad.

 

[DukeofShorts]

Dillon chances=18%
Dillon want=0%
Waluigi prediction=41%
Prince Peasley x1
Groose x4

 

[Groose]

[collapse=Others of Chance]

[/collapse]

 

[Groose]

[collapse=Others of Want]

[/collapse]

That's it. I'm done for today.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Dillon-
Chance-40%- He's probably the most likely eshop rep. I also feel like Sakurai's going for a lot of unreped series this time around. However, his series may just be too new and not enough people know him.
Want- 100%- He's defiantly my most wanted character He has an awesome design and his games are fun.

Waluigi Prediction- 19%- He has a lot of haters.

Nominations:
Genesect x5

 

[Erimir]

Random mini-rant: Yes, weird characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Ice Climbers and Game & Watch have been added before, but they're not nobodies. Game & Watch handhelds and Wii Fit have sales over 40 million, and Ice Climber did pretty decently with sales over a million copies. So I don't think it's right for people to act like the open the door for literally anybody. I'm annoyed with seeing WFT brought up in that way. She and Villager demonstrate that being perhaps unconventional as fighters is not a hindrance, but I don't think they mean that obscure characters X, Y, Z are anything more than highly unlikely.

Dillon:

Popularity: I don't really know. He's not nobody, but he's nowhere near the top of the list on the poll here. Nintendo doesn't release eShop sales figures, but it must've done ok considering he got a sequel. His games didn't get the most enthusiastic critical response though. I don't know how much that matters (if they care about that, then Shulk would definitely benefit, for example). It might affect their view of how viable sequels are (Xenoblade being an example there as well).

Honesty, I hadn't heard of him before I was looking at the character threads and such on here.

Design: Well, I watched a little bit of gameplay. He seems somewhat similar to Sonic (of course, Yoshi and Jigglypuff also have similar moves), but there's some possibility to do other things with the towers and such. And his A-attacks ought to be pretty different.

Roster: Well, he'd be a new series, and Sakurai wants to add more series to the game it seems. But he wants to revive old series as well, so they won't all be new series. He does have a decent number of series to pick from (Punch-Out!!, Xenoblade, Takamaru, Golden Sun, Mii, Pac-Man, among others) and he's already added three new series.

Dillon chances: 10%
He has potential to be a character, but maybe he needs a more breakthrough game first. I would not be at all surprised to see him as an AT though.

Dillon want: 52%
He seems ok, but there are plenty of others I'd rather see. At least he has a different look and ok move set potential.

Waluigi prediction: 25%
Not sure. He's among the top tier of Mario characters, but people aren't very bullish on Mario getting a new rep in the first place.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

Well I can see you're getting a little pissy right now... *walks away*

He's taking time out of his day to calculate the scores and make the posts and such for the game. Most people aren't interested in rating the chances for generic grunts, minor one-off characters (like, for example, Jonathon Jones from Super Mario RPG and faces from the huge crowd of named, playable FE characters), Pokemon with no prominence, etc. Why do you want to waste Groose's time and annoy the others in the thread? It's not interesting to have dozens of posts giving <1% chance and saying this character doesn't matter.

Don't act so sad that you don't get to waste people's time, you already know what the answers will be for those characters.

Dammit, we need some newer IPs...to represent current Nintendo, and Dillon is the best rep we have for that, as well as for the E-shop.

I dunno, I think repeating the same old franchises over and over is a fair representation of current Nintendo, don't you?

I do feel like we need some newer IP reps, since the newest franchise in Smash is what? Pikmin? That's twelve years old this year at least.

Well, I guess technically Wii Fit would be the newest one now. That would be from late 2007, so almost 6 years old now.

 

[Xenigma]

I don't agree with lumping in Sandbag with the troll nominations, considering he at least makes some sense like WFT would have and not like, say, Omastar, but I digress. Glad to see the new rule now in place.

Dillon - 40%
Here's something we don't see much of: a new Nintendo protagonist from a new series with two games already under his belt and plenty of personality to fit alongside other Smash characters. The only characters with similar credentials are Wii Fit Trainer, who was one of the first reveals for SSB4, and Shulk, who placed 11th in chance here amongst newcomers. Heck, he even got a puzzle for 3DS Puzzle Swap, and he got it before Shulk did to boot. If we got a rep specifically for the eShop, he should be the frontrunner. Dillon is far from a lock, considering just how new he is and that there is plenty of competition for the roster already between older franchises that still don't have a rep and franchises like Fire Emblem that could easily deserve another slot. He beats out a lot of potential newcomers we've rated of late, though, so I'm pretty comfortable giving him a solid rating to show it. Worst case scenario, he could be a great assist trophy.
Want - 50% - Not a fan of his franchise, but he seems like he could be a fun addition and he seems plenty deserving.

Waluigi Prediction - 25%
I don't see him escaping assist trophy status, but a lot of others seem to think otherwise.

Nominations
R.O.B. x5

 

[Groose]

He's taking time out of his day to calculate the scores and make the posts and such for the game. Most people aren't interested in rating the chances for generic grunts, minor one-off characters (like, for example, Jonathon Jones from Super Mario RPG and faces from the huge crowd of named, playable FE characters), Pokemon with no prominence, etc. Why do you want to waste Groose's time and annoy the others in the thread? It's not interesting to have dozens of posts giving <1% chance and saying this character doesn't matter.

I really don't mind a troll character now and again. But others do---I got complaints numbering in the double digits about Sandbag.

Anywho, once we hit the point where all we're doing is renominating old characters because we've gotten through the bigger names, I'll reinstate Yarne et all.

I'm trying to run the game to the best of my ability and I know I can be sudden or unfair at times. I'm trying my best to keep things running smoothly as possible, but I'll admit that I'm not the greatest manager.

I dunno, I think repeating the same old franchises over and over is a fair representation of current Nintendo, don't you?

Sadly. I've always praised Nintendo for keeping its series fresh, but recently they haven't been doing a good job. Fortunately, they're creating a large back-catalog of franchises (F-Zero, Star Fox, Punch-Out, etc.) that they could call on for a burst of freshness at any moment.



An interesting observation: skimming through, I haven't even seen a single renomination for Palutena. I didn't expect her to garner much interest or a second-go-round, but I kinda expected one or two people to toss votes out there. Huh. Well, I expect tomorrow's addition to the renomination list will attract attention...

 

[Sid-cada]

Dillion

Chance - 35% - I think we can all agree that if we get an eShop representative, it would be him. However, us getting one is unlikely in my eyes. I'm just not sure how big the eShop is going to get. As for Dillion himself, if Sakurai sees something in him, he may get in, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Want - 60% - Coming from a part Tower Defense game, it would be interesting to see him in. I'd enjoy his inclusion, but not enough to actively support it.


Waluigi Prediction - 18% - Yeah, not expecting him to do to well. Out competed plus hatters equals low score.

Nominations
ROBX3
Pokémon Trainer X2

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Ouch. I feel kinda bad for giving Sandbag the nominations I did. I didn't think it would do too much harm to have a joke day. But that's behind us now.

Dillon

Chance: 30% - I don't know much about him, but he seems like the kind of character to catch Sakurai's eye.

Want: 55% - He's a western armadillo so there's definitely some moveset potential in there somewhere.

Waluigi prediction: 24% - Back in the Brawl days he got a lot of hate and ridicule. He seems to be doing better now but we'll see.

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[TheCreator]

I would absolutely love for that to be the newcomer list.

Dillon chances: 50%
Has pros and cons. Overall more cons than pro's, but there's a chance Sakurai will take a shining to Dillon based on prior statements of his.
Want: 100%

Waluigi chances: 60%

 

[colder_than_ice]

Dillon
Chance: 13% - He's virtually unknown and the game he was from wasn't very well received. He does have the potential to be a very interesting newcomer.
Want: 53% - I'm pretty neutral on his inclusion.

Waluigi prediction: 29%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

Thank you for getting rid of troll votes, I was so worried that Omastar would get rated before Layton.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

I really don't mind a troll character now and again. But others do---I got complaints numbering in the double digits about Sandbag./quote]

More than the complaints you got for Owain?

 

[MargnetMan23]

More than the complaints you got for Owain?

I was looking back at that but for Owain people were like, "what? No..." and for sandbag the worst of them were like, "WHICH ONE OF THESE ASSHOLES NOMINATED THIS GUY?!"

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Dillon: 14%
He's a brand new and decently popular character but...he might be too new at this point.

Want: 77%
He'd be awesome. I hope there is at least Dillon's Rolling Western content in Smash 4.

Waluigi Prediction: 18%
WAAAAA!!!

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x5

He's so close....

I can almost taste it....

 

[MasterOfKnees]

ENJOY. How would you feel if this list became the newcomer's list?

Maybe Isaac, Pac-Man and Mii should be cut from that since they're the bottom 3 on the list, and we already have 3 newcomers announced, for some reason I'm just not expecting more than 10 newcomers. Either way, I'd be in love with the roster if it turned out like that.

I'd much prefer a Ridley made of flesh and bones instead of the spectral transparent Ridley that's depicted in the picture though

 

[MargnetMan23]

Maybe Isaac, Pac-Man and Mii should be cut from that since they're the bottom 3 on the list, and we already have 3 newcomers announced, for some reason I'm just not expecting more than 10 newcomers. Either way, I'd be in love with the roster if it turned out like that.

I'd much prefer a Ridley made of flesh and bones instead of the spectral transparent Ridley that's depicted in the picture though

I think 10 new seems somewhat reasonable as counting villager mega man and wii fit trainer that would be only 2 less then Brawl's amount of newcomers