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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Opossum

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Ganondorf time.

Likelihood: 100%
In all honesty, I feel he should have been one of the "vets we're not rating," but alas, here we are.

Want: 100%
He's Ganondorf!

Predicting a 22.3% for Zoroark

Nominating Falco x5
 

Fatmanonice

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Ganondorf:

Likelihood: 98%. He's Nintendo's second most important villain, part of the "Triforce", and has already been in two Smash games. The only way I can see him leaving is the microscopic chance he gets replaced by Akumadorf Demise.

Want: 75%. I think he deserves to be in Smash as much as Bowser but he needs some major buffs before I can be enthusiastic about his return.

Zoroark:

Likelihood: 20%. I honestly think her (the main one in the movie was female) ship has sailed. She would have pretty much been a shoe in if the year was 2010 or even 2011 but with sixth gen roughly two months away, her time to shine has long passed. It also doesn't help that Newtwo absolutely crushes her when it comes to popularity and the pokemon itself never caught on like Lucario did.

Want: 20%. The only way I would really care about this character is if they gave it the Illusion ability from the games. Without that, I could easily see her being made into a semi-clone of Lucario.

Nominate: Goemon (Ganbare Goemon) x5
 

MasterOfKnees

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Ganondorf:

Likelihood: 100% - I don't even want to count how many characters are gonna get cut before they'll reach Ganondorf. He is staying, potentially with a new moveset. You'll probably see that he's also the reason Link has the Twilight Princess design still.

Want: 100% - I don't care much if he gets a new moveset or not, he's a blast to play right now, and if he gets a new moveset he'll probably still be a blast to play.

Zoroark Prediction: 22% - Because Mewtwo.

Nominations:
5x Ridley
 

YoshiandToad

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Ganondorf
Chance: 100%
One of Zelda's three most important characters. Him getting cut would be ridiculous, seeing as how Zelda has so few re-occurring characters cutting 1/3 of the Triforce seems ludicrous even if he wasn't present for a few Zelda games.

Of all the seen Zelda villains thus far Ganondorf and Pig Ganon are the only ones I'd consider an "All Star". Cutting him for Demise or Vaati would be like cutting Bowser for Wart or King Boo.

Want: 100%
Not because I'm a huge Zelda fan, but because not including him would seem wrong somehow.
However, just like everyone else, we'd all be a lot happier if he'd stop copying Captain Falcon already and show us his (own) moves.

Zoroark prediction: 29%
Zoroark's popular with some of the Smash forum, but he has strong competition with Lucario, Mewtwo and Genesect popularity wise. At least she's more popular than...

...Meowth. Whom I once again nominate. X3
Sonic X2
 

Toxicroaker

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Ganondorf: 95% I love Ganon and do not think he will get cut for any reason accept the sliver of a chance that he could get swapped out with Demise or Ghirahim but that is very unlikely and I think the two would co-exist if ether was brought in

Want: 99% yup...

Zoroark: 68%

x5... Demise
 

XenothiumX

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Ganondorf
Likelihood: 99%
Want: 100%
The Triforce gathering shall stay complete

Zoroark
Prediction: 12%

Nominations:
Saki x5
 

SpaceJell0

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Ganondorf Chances: 90% He's probably a safe bet, and hopefully he'll be his OWN character this time around -_-
Ganondorf Want: 95% Don't really play Zelda all that much but I like complete evil vibe, moreso than the joke villains Bowser and Dedede

Zoroark Prediction: 10% 6th Gen is probably giving us Mewthree instead, Zoroark was a failed attempt to make Lucario happen twice

x5 Starfy
 

Starbound

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Chances: 100%
Not a chance.

Want: 96%
I like him in Melee.

Nomz: Palutena x5
 

Mr. Mumbles

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Ganondorf Chances: 100% Some might say "but he isn't confirmed!" They are correct, but I round. I don't use decimal points in my predictions. I don't know why but saying something like 99.7 just seems silly to me. Am I really sure it's .7 and not .6? No. I just know that it is closer to 100% then 99. But I digress. Ganondorf is hugely popular, hugely important to Nintendo, and has been in two games so far. He's not going anywhere. Could you imagine the outrage if he was cut?

Ganondorf Want: 100% I really hope they declone him some more, but even if they don't, I still want him. Villains are just fun and Zelda is probably my favorite series of all time... so yeah.

Zoroark: 50% I really have no idea what his chances are or what people think his chances are. Pokemon are always difficult.
 

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Ganondorf - 100%
Want - 100%
 

sunfallSeraph

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Ganondorf Likelihood: 99%
There always that tiny chance they'll do something crazy and overhaul him into Demise or cut him entirely in leiu of Ghirahim, but these are obviously extreme scenarios. Really can't see him going anywhere.
Want: 80%
There's no arguing that Ganondorf has deserved his roster spot from day 1, but his actual showings in Melee and Brawl have just been really underwhelming to me. I don't want to see him go, but in the unlikely case that the devs were just so creatively bankrupt that they couldn't give him a proper facelift...

Zoroark Prediction: 37%
Its scores will be hurt by virtue of the common perception that only one recent gen Pokemon is getting in out of Newtwo, Zoroark, and Genesect. I don't see this being the case, but I appear to be in the minority on that point. We'll see.

Noms:
Saki x5
 

BKupa666

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Ganondorf

Likelihood - 100%
why are we voting on him he's not getting replaced by a one-shot because of MUH RELEVANCE

Want - 100%
Revamp him to kingdom come and back, just please keep his D-Air.

Zoroark Prediction - 31.5%
Has been completely and utterly overshadowed by Mewtwo, but "may still have a chance."

Nominate
K. Rool Round Two x5
 

Sid-cada

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Ganondorf

Chance - 100% - The Triforce of Power to Link's Courage and Zelda's Wisdom; the main, reoccurring villain of the entire franchise; a two time veteran. For what reason should he be cut?

Want - 97% - Only because he is a clone of Falcon does he not get a perfect score. If he were to get a new move set, man, would I be pleased.


Zoroark - 19% - Her ship has sadly sailed, and it seems that most people were expecting her than wanting her.

Nominations
Lucas X2
Mr. Game & Watch X2
Donbe and Hikari X1
 

FalKoopa

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Ganondorf... Why the hell are we rating him?

Likelihood: 100%
I don't need to explain.

Want: 99%
Cut 1% because I'm not a fan of him in Brawl. :ohwell:

Zoroark prediction: 45%

Nominations: Primid x 5
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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Ganondorf chance=99.75%

Ganondorf with decloned movesent want=100%

Ganondorf with SSBM-B moveset want=20%

Zoroark prediction=5%

Nomination=5xVaati
 

APC99

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Ganondorf Likelihood: 95%. He's pretty likely to return and not be replaced by another Zelda antagonist. I basically consider that all the characters from Melee that made it into Brawl are going to be in the game.

Ganondorf Want: 70%. If we're talking about the old moveset, I don't want to continue with the Captain Falcon clone. They just NEED to give him his sword and dark magic.

Nominations: Duck Hunt Dog x2
Donbe and Hikari x1
Lucas x2
 

Xenigma

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Ganondorf - 100%
Shouldn't even be up for rating; zero chance of removal. Only thing that might happen is having his moveset decloned, but there's no way the most popular villain in Zelda history by far is about to be replaced by a one-off like Ghirahim or Demise. Maybe the fourth Zelda slot or anything beyond that is in question, but you can bet SSB4 will have the trio of Link, Zelda and Ganondorf just like it has the past two games.
Want - 100% - Clone moveset or not, he's Ganondorf! Too awesome.

Zoroark - 15%
Seeing a lot of higher predictions, but like Geno a couple rounds ago I think everyone knows full well Zoroark's ship has sailed, and the rating should only go this high due to fans.

Nominations
Vaati x5
 

KingofPhantoms

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Ganondorf: 99%

He's a major Zelda villain (the greatest villain in all of Zelda in fact) and has so much potential for an original moveset. I highly doubt Sakurai would remove him in favor of Ghirahim. If anything, Ghirahim would be an addition, not a Ganondorf replacement.
 

SchAlternate

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Ganondorf
Likelihood: 100% - Again, MAIN VILLAIN. You can't srgue with that.
Want: 94% - If he gets a trident, I'd be more than happy to play as him, if not main him. Oh and decloning and all that jazz.

Zoroark
Prediction: 15% - A new Pokemon is almost guaranteed, and there's quite a number of candidates I can think of, Zoro being one of them. Sadly, she is pretty far behind from being one of my most wanted candidates, and I don't think she's that likely.

Nominations
Genesect (x3)
Meowth (x2)

Ganondorf is hugely popular, hugely important to Nintendo, and has been in two games so far. He's not going anywhere. Could you imagine the outrage if he was cut?
Three, actually. Ocarina of Time, Wind Waker and Twilight Princess. He was also planned to be in the Oracle series, acording to some unused artwork of him.
 

jaytalks

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ganondorf: likelihood: 99%. It wouldn't make sense in terms of programming to replace him with Pig Ganon considering how much time it would take. And he's already in Ganon's final smash.

want: 100%. No reason to get rid of him. He's a melee veteran very important to his franchise. But please, drop most of the captain falcon basis in the next game.
Zoroark: 17.23%
Nominations:
Simon Belmont x 5
 

Sebz

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G-dorf~100%
No way he's going away. He might be redesigned both visually and mechanically but the man's here for good.

Want~ 100%
One of my mains regardless of his clone-y moveset. If they give him a new moveset I'll be hella excited.

Zoroark~10%
His ship has sailed (and I really want Genesect).

Noms:
Genesectx5
 

Erimir

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Ganondorf

Popularity: It's Ganondorf, the first and main villain from one of Nintendo's most popular and perhaps most critically acclaimed series.

Relevancy: Did you read that last part? And there's no question that Ganondorf should get in over any other Zelda villain. He has the most appearances as the primary antagonist.

Design: He's a bit of a clone. But there's plenty to work from to give him a completely unique move set. For me the more interesting question is whether he'll still be Falcondorf or whether he'll have his actual moves from the Zelda games. He has options for sword and trident based moves, fire projectiles, energy balls (Dead Man's Volley), lightning, ground pounds, levitating, teleporting and invisibility. No matter what though, I'm sure he won't be as sucky as in Brawl. That would be depressing.

Roster and Competition: Vaati and Demise and any other Zelda characters won't be pushing him out. Sorry. Demise is really just a beefier version of Ganondorf anyway and I don't think he has much chance of getting in. I wouldn't have a problem with them stealing something from Demise for Ganondorf's moves though.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind having TWO versions of Ganondorf... Ganondorf, using moves inspired by Ocarina of Time and Twilight Princess (a sword for his weapon, Dead Man's Volley, etc.) and Pig Ganon (uses a trident, has fire bats, teleportation). Although making Pig Ganon work like Giga Bowser would be totally fine as well (although perhaps not worth the effort to make a unique move set for a final smash, unless it was a full transformation like Zero Suit Samus. Giving him a partial move set with like, 3-5 moves or so would be a good compromise).

Sakurai: Has said he's not intending on cutting anyone yet. And Ganondorf is surely not near the chopping block compared to other characters.

Ganondorf chances: 99.99%
I don't see him not coming back.

The chances of him having a significantly revamped move set (i.e. adding a projectiles and/or giving him a sword or trident) is the interesting question here, so I'm going to talk about that instead. This I can see going either way, but the evidence from Pit and Bowser suggests there's a good chance Ganondorf will finally be Ganondorf. Bowser received significant changes to his A-attacks, and it seems the main reason is just to make him better. We don't know about ALL the moves for the other veterans, but we do know their specials are pretty much the same. But we don't know to what extent Sakurai is shaking things up by changing a smash, tilt or aerial here and there for them. Pit received significant changes to his special attacks to reflect his games more (i.e. to reflect Uprising). His side-B is the Upperdash Arm, a totally new move replacing the Angel Ring (which was not based off the games), and the Guardian Orbitars, while similar to the Mirror Shield, have a totally different look and cover two sides instead of one.

Ganondorf is a prime candidate for both of those kinds of changes. Like Bowser, he needs to be buffed, and giving him access to a weapon (probably a sword, but could be a trident) is a good excuse to make some significant changes there. He also could use some additional range given his size. And like Pit, he is also a good candidate for changing his specials to reflect his games. They don't ALL need to change (Flame Choke is a good fit for him personality-wise and sort of appears in Twilight Princess) but he should have a projectile considering he uses projectiles in every game but Wind Waker.

So... I'm going to peg the chances of a significantly revamped Ganondorf (meaning, at least giving him a weapon or totally replacing a special move, rather than simply changing his weight/speed and one or two normal attacks) at 75%. It would seem strange for Pit and Bowser to have more changes than him, if you ask me. He's the veteran most deserving a revamp, rather than merely tweaking him for balance/power level.

A great solution according to me would be to add Black Shadow as a heavy/slower version of Capt. Falcon. He could be somewhere between Melee and Brawl Ganondorf with a couple new moves utilizing the horns and such, and would make Ganondorf mains very happy. That said, if Falcondorf has to die to let Ganondorf live, I'd be fine with that.

Ganondorf want: 98.5%
With a revamped move set, 100%. If the choice was Falcondorf or nothing, 95%. But I'll be disappointed if he doesn't get his own moves.

Zoroark prediction: 40%
I don't really know what people think about Zoroark, so I'm just going to guess somewhere between what others have been saying.

Nominations:
Almost there for Simon... Then I'll have to pick someone else to promote.
Simon Belmont x10
 

PK_Wonder

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Nominations:
Almost there for Simon... Then I'll have to pick someone else to promote.
Simon Belmont x10

My two nomination projects, Ghirahim and Saki Amamiya are practically golden within the next few days as well. I will go with either Bayonetta, Ryu (Street Fighter), Victini, or Dark Samus if you'd like to help me on whichever one of them. :) If you find your own thing though, I won't be disappointed.


Ganondorf - 100% If anything we should be rating the chances of him getting a new moveset.

prediction: 22%

Ghirahim x5
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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Ganondorf
likely hood 100%
its a no brainer he's the second most known villain in Nintendo franchise and triforce is indeed in the top 5 most popular Nintendo series

want 100%
I definatly want him and im begging you sakkurai please do not make ganondorf a clone of captain falcon again PLEEEASE
 

Spears In Smash Bros.

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Likelihood: 97.5%
The definitive Zelda antagonist, unique moveset or not. I've never even heard of Demise.

Want: 90%
Just in case he's somehow made even more similar to Captain Falcon.

Zorro Roark: 29%

Nominate:
Kunio-Kun/Ryan (River City Ransom) x1
Klonoa x4
 

ZecaOMestre

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Ganondorf

Likelihood: 100% - He's not going anywhere.
Want: 100% - No cuts

Zoroark Prediction: 28%

Nominations:
Primid x5
 

RavenKingSage

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Ganondorf:

100% certain that he will stay, being the overarching Zelda antagonist and a member of the Triforce. Don't want him gone either.

Zoroark:

Low chance, maybe 10-30%. With the advent of generation 6, really not much reason to add it (her?). I would like to see it (her?) be playable, but if it's (she's?) not, no skin off my nose.
 

Glaciacott

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Ganondork:

Chance - 100%. One of the greatest Nintendo villians and part of the triforce. He ain't leaving.

Want - 100%. The roster would not feel complete without him.

Zoroark prediction: 19%

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Ganondorf
Likelihood: 100% Why would he not show up? He's the main villain in LoZ...
Want: 98% He may be kind of a walking punching bag in Brawl, but hopefully he'll get his very own moveset this time around.

Zoroark: 26%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5
 

Yams

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Ganondorf
Likelihood: 99% absolutely no reason do be cut
Want: 75% one of my favorite characters tbh, but a very small part of me feels like Sakurai won't declone him.

Zoroark: 15%

Noms:
Duck Hunt Dog x5
 

Swamp Sensei

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Ganondorf:100%

He's staying.

Want:100%

He's Ganondorf and no cuts.

Zoroark Prediction:22%
He's kinda popular but his competition is way too much.

Nominations:
Sonic
Snake
Lucas
Mr. Game & Watch
Falco
 

Sabrewulf238

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Ganondorf prediction - 99.9%
Not sure why we're even voting on this. Ganondorf is so important to the Zelda series, not having him in smash would be outrageous.
Want - 80%
Not crazy about him moveset wise, but he's an important character not just to the zelda series but Nintendo itself.
Zoroark - 50%
I can see this being mixed. Some will think he's the next lucario, others will think mewtwo will take that spot.
nominations: chibi robo x2 robin x2 isaac x2
 

Gam3rALO

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Ganondorf
Chance: 99.99%
The only point of leaving off .01% is because he isn't confirmed yet.

Want: 95.66%
I have to be honest I don't care for him but I HATE cuts so yea.

Prediction for Zoroark: 34.66%

Nominations
Sylveon x4
Game & Watch x1
 

Knight Dude

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Ganondorf's chances - 99%: Honestly, he seems too important to get rid of. And any other character that would replace him would just be disappointing.

Want - 90%: After seeing the new moves both Bowser and Pit have up their sleeves, I'm interested in what changes could be headed Ganon's way. That and well, he's Ganondorf, he's been one of Nintendo's cooler villains. I just hope at the very least he's faster this time around. It felt weird having Bowser as the faster heavy hitter.

Zoroark - 40%: Not that many people are that interested in Zoroark it seems. It's no where near as popular as Lucario was(and still is). If Mewtwo doesn't come back then Genesect will likely have people's attention instead.

I nominate Snake three times. And Sonic twice.
 

GigaBowserXyZ

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Ganondorf

Likelyhood: 100%

Hey guys, do you remember in Smash Kingdom when all the villians were complaining how there's hardly any villians in Smash? Yea, I don't see how removing Ganondorf will help that (also because other reasons already explained). :V

Want: 100%

One of my favorite childhood villians.

Zoroark

Likelyhood: 20%

Her spotlight pretty much got taken by Mewtwo.
 

Groose

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Umm... I'm getting mixed messages.
They mean, "Not a chance of being cut."

Ganondorf... Why the hell are we rating him?
I... I don't know. During Day One, we voted on which characters NOT to rate. Oddly, Ganondorf didn't receive enough votes to be placed on the do not rate list. The opinion then was that there was a small chance he could be replaced with Ghirahim or Demise; clearly, opinion has changed.

I could cut the day short now... but I'll just let things finish out.
 
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