Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Deleted member]

Technically Roy is recurring (though his second appearance is as a baby), but he's also playable in a Smash game so I guess your point remains valid. Eliwood, Hector and (double playable) Leif however...

I was actually waiting for someone to bring up this interesting point.

Eliwood and Hector are playable in FE8, but they aren't the main characters any longer, that's Leif, if I'm correct (not played those ones, just heard about them). I believe Leif is the opposite situation, but if not, he was considered for Melee over Roy too, which isn't concrete but it's something.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Eliwood and Hector are playable in FE8

They don't appear in Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh, then they're playable in FE6? Sorry to fumble on that point. But I have actually played FE6 and know they're aged and not really the same characters as in FE7.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

CHROM

Chance: 45% - Eh, just below average IMO.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

ROBIN

Chance: 55% - Eh, just above average IMO.

Want: 75% - It could prove to be an entertaining character.

Isaac Prediction: 80% - I think surviving the AT massacre is a big boost in people's eyes.

Ray Prediction: 12% - People believe that he has a chance if very low.

 

[The Light Music Club]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai does what he did with Ness and go with an Older character compared to Lucas and a Newer Character in melee. I already talked about this in the other thread, but when the roster was being made IS didn't know if Awakening would save the franchise. With Pokemon, they knew X and Y would make as much money as previous so they put in Greninja. I could see them going with characters out of Roy/Ike/Anna/Micaiah they have better chances imo since they knew that the games had fans.

 

[MargnetMan23]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai does what he did with Ness and go with an Older character compared to Lucas and a Newer Character in melee. I already talked about this in the other thread, but when the roster was being made IS didn't know if Awakening would save the franchise. With Pokemon, they knew X and Y would make as much money as previous so they put in Greninja. I could see them going with characters out of Roy/Ike/Anna/Micaiah they have better chances imo since they knew that the games had fans.

And if they were relying on said game to be saving the franchise than maybe Smash could've been a much needed boost? =P

 

[colder_than_ice]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai does what he did with Ness and go with an Older character compared to Lucas and a Newer Character in melee. I already talked about this in the other thread, but when the roster was being made IS didn't know if Awakening would save the franchise. With Pokemon, they knew X and Y would make as much money as previous so they put in Greninja. I could see them going with characters out of Roy/Ike/Anna/Micaiah they have better chances imo since they knew that the games had fans.

Mother 3 was released in 2006. Ness was the newest Mother character at the time of both SSB64 and Melee.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ya know, the 'saved the series' thing always feels to have been blown out of proportion... They where told it had to perfeorm better than 250,000 sales... New Mystery of The Emblem pulled that off with minimal marketing, no international release and the burden of being a remake...

I'm not belittling Awakening, it is the best selling of the series (though with the marketing, timing and lack of competition it was bound to sell well...), but I still feel the story has been sensationalised....

 

[The Light Music Club]

Mother 3 was released in 2006. Ness was the newest Mother character at the time of both SSB64 and Melee.

Sakurai considered replacing Ness with the Mother 64 character but decided not to.

 

[False Sense]

Sakurai considered replacing Ness with the Mother 64 character but decided not to.

Probably because that game was never finished.

 

[Burigu]

Chrom:
Chance: 80%
Want: 80% honestly people claiming the whole clone thing are only factoring the character appearance, or the other "the same sword as Marth", in game lore the sword is the same yet its appearance is different and show some behavior that Marth's Falchion never shows.

Robin
Chance:30%
Want:80% female want it has better default dessing IMO

 

[Glaciacott]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai does what he did with Ness and go with an Older character compared to Lucas and a Newer Character in melee. I already talked about this in the other thread, but when the roster was being made IS didn't know if Awakening would save the franchise. With Pokemon, they knew X and Y would make as much money as previous so they put in Greninja. I could see them going with characters out of Roy/Ike/Anna/Micaiah they have better chances imo since they knew that the games had fans.

Except it's not like X and Y at all. X and Y came out months after the roster had been claimed as decided on in E3, whereas Awakening first came out in April 2012, perhaps weeks after Sakurai had just finished working on Uprising and development on Smash had barely started.

What I'm trying to say is that the decision of a FE character was made with full knowledge of Awakening's success and popularity.

 

[Groose]

Chrom: 75% chance. With the tiki trophy, arena ferox, and popularity of awakening, I believe chrom has an excellent chance of getting in. Want: 90% Awakening is my first fe game and I think chrom is an awesome character and a great potential addition. Robin: 10% chance. Chrom just seems more likely and is a bigger rep. Want: 65% I'd prefer chrom, but a potential stance based character has my interest.

Welcome to Smashboards! If you have any questions about the site or this game in specific, feel free to ask me! I consider it an honor when someone makes some of their first posts on a thread that I help run.

Actually, in Fire Emblem canon, Marth and Chrom's falchions are the same blade, simply reforged. The original was made with a fang of Naga and it apparently needed repair at some point, leading to it becoming Fire Emblem Awakening's version. So, yes, it actually is the same sword.


Thanks. I enjoy hearing your point of view.

no problem mate,
feel free to ask away anytime

It's always so refreshing to hear the type of friendly back and forth. Gold stars to each of you.

Tiki was confirmed a trophy

...don't all playable characters have trophies?

Honestly, I think her chances are nonexistent, but I wouldn't have been shocked if Sakurai did show us a trophy in one of those challenges that belonged to a playable character. Obviously that wasn't the case, but I wouldn't put it beyond him in the future.

Now, this next part may scare away whatever mathematicians we have out there. I'm no statistician, and I'm not prepared to deal with any statistical principles that lie outside of the realm of common knowledge. I'm just doing this the best way I know how.

Groose's April Fire Emblem Chance Chart
Marth: 100%
Ike: 70%
Chrom: 50%
Roy: 20%
Robin: 15%
Chrom and Lucina: 10%
Lucina: 10%
Others: 1% or less
Total: 275% (or a 25% chance of two characters and a 75% chance of three)

Allow me to start with my overall explanation. I think that the Fire Emblem series will expand to have three characters playable, but I'm not certain it will. It's a series that is constantly plugging forward and creating new characters, but this combined with its relative obscurity means that it never has absolute staple characters like in other series. One major thing that stands in its favor, though, is that the series is at a new high point, and there is lots of demand for certain new characters in Smash. I do think Sakurai will decide to add another character.

Ike: 70%
I do think Ike will return, but there always is the possibility Sakurai decides that other characters from the series are simply higher-priority. I feel like there is the chance that time constraints may show no sympathy to Ike, but I really wouldn't count on it as much as I used to; the game seems to be progressing well, and it doesn't seem to be rushed as I thought it may be.

Chrom: 50%
Chrom is pretty much the poster boy for Awakening. There are many thousands of newer Fire Emblem fans who went through their first Fire Emblem game with him, and he is the most highly requested Fire Emblem newcomer (though Roy and Lucina do have notable popularity). Chrom also could be used to promote the newer direction Fire Emblem has taken, and I don't doubt that he'll return soon in a Fire Emblem game. Chrom does have competition in that there are two other notable Awakening characters and the beloved Roy, so I don't really see him as anything close to a shoo-in. Additionally, he doesn't really offer much of anything new to the table and is sort of a blend of Marth and Ike, two characters that are already in; there is a chance that he gets Leif'd.

Overall, I could see Chrom going either way. I do see an Awakening character as very likely, and I do see him as the most likely candidate, so he will be on my prediction roster that I post next week.

Roy: 20%
Roy is a very popular character among Melee enthusiasts and is also pretty darn popular in Japan (I find his popularity there to be a little bit overstated, but definitely still present). He also was a candidate for Brawl and his red hair and fire sword make him stand out from other FE characters. Even so, the series has moved on from him, and he isn't really all that recognizable to newer Smash fans or newer FE fans. His popularity and Sakurai's prior interest give him a shot, but I do think that both putting in a newer character and returning characters from Brawl will stand as a higher priority.

Robin: 15%
Robin was never as big as either Chrom or Lucina. (S)He wasn't really used in promotional material. (S)He wasn't really requested. (S)He wasn't really as talked-up among the general public.

That aside, Robin still has a serious chance. The Tactician played a major role in game and is instantly recognizable to those who have played the game. In addition, the Avatar is much more unique and offers up something that stands out from other Fire Emblem characters. I'd say My Unit is a possibility, but I just don't think that (s)he has enough going for him/her to be considered Chrom's equal.

Chrom/Lucina Tag-Team: 10%
This combination could still work in an Ice Climbers-style set. Even so, I'm not sure if there would be any form of technical issue with such a thing, and it would require a lot more work than just putting in an individual character. I'd say that it is possible, but I just really doubt that they would opt for it.

Lucina: 10%
Take pretty much everything I said was in Chrom's favor, but lessen it just a little bit. Then take the fact that she's really, really similar to Marth (her design!), a character that we already have, and I just don't see why they'd pick her over Chrom.

Others: 1% or less
I guess I could give a 1% to Anna, but I just don't really see any other FE character having a chance. They're all far too minor or unimportant to warrant a real look.

Want Scores: I'm not a big Fire Emblem fan, and I really don't see much merit in characters from the franchise from a non-character standpoint. They're not really all the same, but the Lords in particular are pretty darn similar to one another in terms of movepool. The franchise already has its foot firmly in the Smash door, so I don't really need to see a new character to hope for new music and stage content; also, Smash can do little more for the franchise than it already has.

I'm sure after seeing whatever character gets in in action, my satisfaction scores will be fairly high. However, for now, I have to give 0% in want to all Fire Emblem characters not named the Tactician... to whom I give a 40%. I don't really want the Tactician or any new Fire Emblem character in, but I do like his/her design quite a bit and would be pleasantly surprised that he/she is the character we get from the bunch.

DAY OVER
We like Ike! Roy's our boy! Chrom is the bomb! I can't think of anything for Robin!​

 

[Groose]

Chrom
68.72% chance (was 44.56%)
46.57% want (was 31.46%)
Chrom has recovered from the uniqueness scare that followed the reveal of Rosalina. Although we saw him quite likely last fall (69.65% chance, higher than it is now!), his score plummeted to 44.56% when Rosalina implied that uniqueness was the guiding principle for adding new characters. Now that we've see more of the game and he's part of the Gematsu leak, his chance has risen back to normal levels. However, Chrom's want score still remains relatively low; although he captured our hearts back in the fall with a score of over 57%, he suffered greatly in the winter and still hasn't fully recovered despite a 15% boost.

Robin
25.83% chance (was 32.61%)
59.64% want (was 56.00%)
Chrom has recovered from his rough winter, but the Tactician has suffered since then. With people once again joining Lord Chrom's army, fewer expect Robin than before. Despite the drop in expectancy, however, Robin's want scores actually increased; while Chrom will continue to be a permanent member of our Top Ten Chance, Robin will continue to be a member of our Top Ten Want.

Although we will be returning to Fire Emblem again before too long, I do think we need a brief break from the series. Today we'll be focusing on two character that were ATs in Brawl that survived the bloodbath that was the Direct: Isaac and Ray. Isaac has long been a requested character, and he's definitely going to maintain a spot on our Top Ten Want list at the end of this day. However, will that be enough to combat Golden Sun's fading influence? Speaking of fading influence, it's been a long time since we've seen a Custom Robo game, and Ray isn't even as requested as Isaac; does he stand a chance? Please rate Isaac and Ray! Tomorrow we'll be starting a two-day talk about a series that is near and dear to my heart: the Legend of Zelda. Please predict how the oft-maligned Tingle and Ghirahim will do in tomorrow's match.

 

[colder_than_ice]

DAY OVER
We like Ike! Roy's our boy! Chrom is the bomb! I can't think of anything for Robin!​

How about "There's no stoppin' Robin"?

 

[Chandeelure]

-Isaac:
Chances: 32%
Want: 40%

-Ray:
Chances: 10%
Want:15%

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Isaac
Chances: 40%
Want: 45%
I think we would see Shadow being promoted before Isaac

Ray? You mean Custom Robo Ray
Chances: 0% (Sorry)
Want: 0%
I'm just not interested.

 

[Chandeelure]

Isaac
Chances: 40%
Want: 45%
I think we would see Shadow being promoted before Isaac

Prepare yourself.

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Prepare yourself.

I know that it's unlikely that Shadow will be playable, but what is likely is Nintendo buying out SEGA before the fifth smash, so I'm not losing anything

 

[Erimir]

Isaac

What has changed since before? Well, more characters were revealed, and a bunch of competitors were deconfirmed, while Isaac was conspicuously absent. That's basically it.

Golden Sun has pretty good sales as far as unrepresented series go (ones that aren't Wii-branded or Animal Crossing, that is). It's on a similar level to Punch-Out. Like Punch-Out, it's more popular in the West than in Japan, which probably hurts it since Japan's tastes seem a little more important... Then again, Little Mac was revealed since last time, so maybe Sakurai is trying to make it up a little bit.

The series is on hiatus, but it might come back some day... It also recently got its first Virtual Console release.

He also has good moveset potential and is fairly requested. But will Shulk, another RPG fan favorite who is more current and whose series is up-and-coming, be an obstacle for Isaac?

Isaac chances: 31%
I boost him a bit since he's still in the game, and as an AT from a series that's not nearly as tiny as series like S&P or Custom Robo, he has the potential to become playable. I find him plausible, but not likely.

Isaac want: 70%
I like Golden Sun, but Isaac himself is just alright. I'd rather see Shulk (well, Shulk is one of those that I like his game but he himself I'm just ok with), or certain other characters.

Ray

The same things have changed for Ray.

However, Custom Robo has significantly worse sales overall (about 1.2 million compared to Golden Sun's 3.7 million) and significantly worse sales per game (300k per game, compared to 1.2 million per game). Its last entry was also not as recent. This series seems like it might be dead.

I don't think he's nearly as requested either.

While there was slight positive news for Ray in the Direct, he is starting at a very low baseline, IMO. I've also adjusted my scores downward in general due to fewer slots left and more pessimism about everyone fitting.

Ray chances: 2%
I just don't see it happening.

Ray want: 30%
I don't really want to see this mini-Transformers wannabe. AT is the right role for him.

ETA Predictions:
Ghirahim - 10.5%
Nothing much to help him really. Skyward Sword is represented in the stages and items, but not so far in any of the characters. Those two factors shouldn't result in him getting that much of a boost.

Tingle - 15%
Predict similar to before, but on the higher end of the two ratings.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Isaac
Chance: 25% - I find it kind of unlikely that two ATs get pushed up to playable. I honestly didn't think Little Mac would either.
Want: 45% - I wouldn't mind him, but I have characters that I like a lot more than him. I haven't played Golden Sun, so I wouldn't be pushing to have him. I don't mind him though.

Ray
Chance: 5% - Like Isaac I don't see an 2 AT's being pushed up, but with Lyn out of the running, the only one I could see would be Isaac. Ray has little to no chance
Want: 35% - I don't know his series to well. He's a robot, and we already have Megaman and R.O.B. is probably coming back. So I don't think he'd fit in too well. IMO of course.

Tingle: (Overrated) 35%
G-Him: (Overrated) 40%

 

[LoneKonWolf]

It's always so refreshing to hear the type of friendly back and forth. Gold stars to each of you.

issac - 27.75%
i'll say there's three things that have happened.
1. little mac confirmed, which shows a assist trophy can become an character (though Charizard showed that in 64 and melee, this finally showed it to everyone)
2. many brawl assist trophies, even ones that thought to have chances like saki, starfy, goroh and Waluigi, were outright deconfirmed
3. survived the Nintendo direct massacre

honestly I believe 2 and 3 cancel each other out, he may have survived, but they are bringing back popular and well known assist trophies from brawl, can't go bigger than issac from there
however since assist trophies can get confirmed, I believe that can put him a bit closer in terms or chance. nothing I want to put any case on him being in, but he does have a fair chance of getting in
want - 60%
some interest but not on my wanted list
ray - 12.50%
I don't think any of the above will change anything for him,
want - 45%
I wouldn't mind or care, but I have others I would rather want
tingle - 7.81%
ghirahim - 5.49%
both are going to plummet thanks to the unexpected act of sheik acting like the fifth Zelda spot

 

[colder_than_ice]

The popularity chart has been updated.

Isaac
Chance: 39% - Same rating I gave him last time. I think he has a decent chance, being from a popular cult game and all. He has the potential to be the most unique sword user ever, even more so than Shulk and Takamaru. Sadly, I'm pessimistic about his chances after he was unfairly left out of Brawl when he was at the peak of his popularity.
Want: 90% - Golden Sun deserves both recognition and a fourth game.

Ray
Chance: 19% - I see him as a dark horse candidate who can easily be made unique. Custom Robo's complete lack of success and popularity holds him back.
Want: 23% - Just a mindless drone devoid of any personality or character. I really did not enjoy Custom Robo.

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac and Ray have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these characters before, check to see what you said on their days!

Isaac
Chance: 40%
I feel as though Isaac has befallen since Brawl. No, it's NOT because of competition, but just because we haven't seen Golden Sun in action for the past few years is kinda discouraging towards his chances.
He has several things going for him. His western demand and European demand (which I heard makes him one of the most wanted characters there) could be enough to put him in Smash. In fact, I argue that the Little Mac reveal boosted his chances. He is the second most likely Assist Trophy to be playable after Little Mac. There is a lot they could do with Isaac and his potential extraordinarily shines with his potential uniqueness.
Isaac may have survived the bloodbath... but he is not out of the woods. He was a hidden Assist Trophy in Brawl; such a thing could happen here again. As such... I can see him be an Assist Trophy, but there is a possibility that he will be playable.
For the record, I don't think that Shulk and Isaac are competing. If one gets in, the other one easily will. As such, Shulk doesn't affect my overall score for him.
Want: 0%
Yet those Shulk vs. Isaac fights make me not want Isaac. Seeing those happen makes me not want to support Isaac in Smash.
Why do those fights exist? Is it because they are blond-haired swordsmen from RPGs? Get real. They aren't competing and these fights are sad and pointless.
Regardless, they exist and it frustrates the living hell out of me. As such, I am just absolutely ticked. I would be happy for the Isaac fans that he would get in, but some damage was done. I understand the supporters frustration if Shulk got in, but I find that these fights are a bit extreme.
Eventually, I will play Golden Sun on my Wii U because I heard nothing but good things about it, but those flame wars are a bit discouraging.
MONADO, FLAME SHIELD ME!

Ray
Chance: 10%
A bit less than Saki's 15%. Custom Robo is a series that hasn't been seen in years... it's more worrisome for Ray when he isn't that demanded as Isaac.
I view him as the 4th most likely as he could represent another franchise in Smash, one with great potential. While he was saved from the bloodbath, he was also hidden in Brawl... the same case may happen here.
I think that Ray could be playable, but he isn't in a good position right now.
Want: 65%
I could get behind a character like this. I would enjoy his inclusion for how unique he could be.

Tingle Prediction: 7.68%
He's going to get destructified!
Ghirahim Prediction: 10.55%
A slight increase, but he didn't really benefit anything from the Direct.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Hm... Last time, I had Isaac at 25% and Ray at 14%... I used to be so generous.
Isaac: 25% I would have him at 20% but he survived the assist trophy massacre.
Want: 80%

Ray: 5%
Want: 30%

Tingle: 15.12%
Ghirahim: 14.13%

 

[IvanQuote]

Okay, here's one I can talk about without extensive research:

Isaac:

Chance: 90%

Next to Lil' Mac, I feel he has the best chance of being promoted. Also, along with an assist trophy, Golden Sun has a remixed track to go along with Brawl, something no other standalone assist can brag about. Not to mention, despite being another swordsman, he has plenty to differentiate himself with. His Earth Psynergy is unique and has a lot of options in that respect (Quake, Spire, Gaia, Thorn, Growth, you name it), and that's not even counting the non-attacking psynergy (move, force, lift, etc). Also, who wouldn't want to see a summon-cutscene final smash (Judgement anyone?)

Want: 100%

As you probably guessed, I am a HUGE Golden Sun fan. Golden Sun 1+2 i consider to be my 5th favorite game of all time. Heck, the first half of my username comes from my favorite character in the series. Of course I'm going to want a playable character. Also a stage. And another assist. And a full score. Please Sakurai?

Okay, fanboy gushing over.

Ray:

Chance: 35%

Don't know a lot about this series, but it was promoted a lot in Melee and Brawl. That being said, he may face stiff competition from Mega Man as a robot projectile user. That being said, with different projectiles and more air maneuverability, he could work.

Want: 55%

Meh. I don't really care if he's in or not, but he does look to have potential as an interesting character. Otherwise, he would still make a fun assist.

 

[TheZombiePig]

Isaac:
-Chance: 40%
I think his absence as an assist in the direct has certainly helped, as well as Golden Sun on the virtual console, but as there is such a large pool of miscellaneous characters to choose from, it's tough to give him more than this. He certainly is one of the more likely miscellaneous characters.
-Want: 50%
Completely neutral.

Ray
-Chance: 12%
The Custom Robo franchise has gotten very little attention, despite being an assist in brawl (as opposed to Punch-Out and Golden Sun), and just like Isaac, there's a lot of miscellaneous characters that are just as likely.
-Want: 78%
While Mac focuses on ground combat, Ray could bring an interesting dynamic by focussing on aerial combat, bringing in new mechanics to keep himself off the ground. Plus, robots are cool. The more, the merrier.

Predictions:
Tingle: 8%
Ghirahim: 9.5%

 

[Wyoming]

Isaac

Chances - 20% - I personally find it hard to see a Golden Sun character added in this game. While he survived the assist trophy massacre, that might mean little considering he was a secret addition in the previous game and that could well be the case again. I suppose he has a slight chance with the fact that ATs can turn into fighters and with the fact his franchise is getting some love recently. However I see him returning to his previous role in Brawl, but it is not impossible for him to be a playable character by any means...I just don't see it.

Want - 50% - Pretty much like Shulk and Chrom, I don't mind if he's in or not. He seems to have some moveset potential and a lot of people want him. So if he gets in, good for his fans but if misses out I won't be too bummed out.

Ray

Chance - 5% - I just don't see this happening. Unlike Golden Sun, Custom Robo hasn't gotten attention in a while so from my perspective it is hard to imagine a representation from that series as a playable character. However, we all know how sneaky Sakurai can be. But when that seems to be your only saving grace, it doesn't bode well for his chances.

Want - 50% - Same reasons as Isaac and such.

 

[Captain Toad]

Heck, the first half of my username comes from my favorite character in the series. Of course I'm going to want a playable character. Also a stage. And another assist. And a full score. Please Sakurai?

Good choice (Ivan was my favourite too, very closely followed by Isaac)

Isaac
Chance:30% though I wish I had more faith that it would be higher, the lack of recent enough games means I'm not convinced Isaac is gonna show up as playable

Want:100% I'm a fan, GS was the game that got me playing RPGs, and was hoping to play him in Brawl. At least he was an assist, which in a battle with friends I got the assist and Isaac's first appearance killed the other players whilst I unashamedly cheered like a lunatic.
I also think that if they wanted to show off how cool the custom move feature is, there's not many characters I can think of with such a huge move pool potential.

Want: 0%
Yet those Shulk vs. Isaac fights make me not want Isaac. Seeing those happen makes me not want to support Isaac in Smash.
Why do those fights exist? Is it because they are blond-haired swordsmen from RPGs? Get real. They aren't competing and these fights are sad and pointless.
Regardless, they exist and it frustrates the living hell out of me. As such, I am just absolutely ticked. I would be happy for the Isaac fans that he would get in, but some damage was done. I understand the supporters frustration if Shulk got in, but I find that these fights are a bit extreme.
Eventually, I will play Golden Sun on my Wii U because I heard nothing but good things about it, but those flame wars are a bit discouraging.

Sorry to hear the fan base ruined Isaac for you. We're not all like that and I'm glad I missed them out on the wars.

Ray
Chance: 15% I just don't see Ray being promoted, but maybe, since they were a trophy and then an assist trophy...just not expecting it.

Want: 20% I've not played the only game released in my region, so can't judge too well, but robots fighting and blowing stuff up generally does appeal to me. (Custom Robo Arena/ Rumble! Custom Robo <- apparently it's English title, thank you wikipedia haha)

I wouldn't be gutted that a Ray was added, since the game looks interesting enough and like Isaac the customisation could be cool, but would in general prefer other characters I know over their inclusion, but who knows, if Ray was included maybe it would make me more interested in hunting down the game, and that's not really a bad thing. *shrug*

 

[Erimir]

I updated my post above with my ratings. I noticed that Impa was actually on the docket for the day after tomorrow! Whoops.

Yet those Shulk vs. Isaac fights make me not want Isaac. Seeing those happen makes me not want to support Isaac in Smash.
Why do those fights exist? Is it because they are blond-haired swordsmen from RPGs? Get real. They aren't competing and these fights are sad and pointless.

I'm not really that invested in Isaac vs. Shulk. I like both and would be happy to see either. One thing that would influence me is that if Isaac got in, it might indicate that they're more likely to make another Golden Sun. I think Golden Sun could be a series they expand upon (and give it a console release to help push the Wii U's RPG library), but they probably won't end up doing that.

But I do see them competing against each other somewhat, as they're both blond, sword-wielding, RPG protagonists from unrepresented series... But only somewhat, since they have different move set potential as Psynergy and Shulk's Battle/Monado Arts are fairly different. They also represent a higher-selling but declining series vs. a lower-selling but up-and-coming series. Anyway... I don't think it's bizarre for people to think there's some tension in the choice of Isaac vs. Shulk vs. both.

A random thought occurs as well... We are six newcomers in without seeing a sword-wielding newcomer.

 

[FalKoopa]

ISAAC: 45%
He survived the Assist Trophy massacre, that many other playable hopefuls like Saki, Waluigi and Ashley could not, so I'm inclined to believe that Sakurai has bigger things in mind for him. He remains a popular character in the west, and he's not at all forgotten in Japan, considering Golden Sun is 2nd on the Wii U charts there. A Little Mac scenario is likely.

Adding to that, his series got a game post-Brawl - Dark Dawn, which means it falls in the time period Sakurai is looking for to pull content into Smash.

Want: 100%
When I came to Smashboards, I knew little about Isaac, except that he existed. I'm not big on RPG's in general. His character support thread made me want to try out the game, and now, it stands alongside the Mario RPGs and Chrono Trigger as some of the few games of that genre that I thoroughly enjoyed. So Isaac gets all of my YES.

RAY: 15%
He seems unlikely because of the hiatus the series is in, not getting a game since the DS. Him surviving the AT massacre helps him though.

Want: 55%
I've always been pretty intrigued by his design, and he is one of the cooler Assist Trophies in Brawl, so I wouldn't mind.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Isaac: 34%
So, since last time we've seen a bunch of ATs drop out of the race, so you'd think his lack of competition would help? Not so much... The fact is Isaac is a character from before Brawl, and despite his popular VC release (which is too late to matter), and his son took the mantle in the game since gives him the odd shot of being demoted to just a trophy with his son taking control of his old position as well...

Isaac is the popular one, but it depends on what Camelot have in mind for the GS series... given the speed at which they once put out the sports games I wouldn't be surprised if they have two teams, and one is working on GS4 right now... I don't think it's hugely likely, but I wouldn't be surprised... And if that's the case Matthew might take the popularity, as per tip off to Sakurai... but we could also get a Mother situation where we get Isaac this game and Matthew next.

Ultimately I think very little has changed in the overall, everything is balanced out by everything else, and the only bg difference is we've not seen a Golden Sun stage and it's getting closer and closer to the release date...


Want: 100%
Spell-Swords are awesome, and jRPGs kinda need more representation... There's three series and three more with a decent shot of getting in... While obviously my favorite is the third party choice, I do like GS, and would love to see Isaac playable... moreover it means we'll get a Wii U Golden Sun stage, and that's pretty much a must given the 3DS only gets two music tracks! That's just not enough for that series!



Ray: 8%
Again, demotion is an option people are ignoring... We've not seen anything Custon Robo in a while now, and while the IP open-ness may resolve that (seriously, how is Custom Robo not Nintendo's F2P game? It makes much more sense than Steel Diver!), ultimately, while I would be surprised if even the AT disappears, I can understand why he might not...

He just doesn't have much going for him... right now... if Nintendo want to try a micros-transaction game though Custom Robo is the obvious choice, and I could see it happening one day...

Want: 40%
Again, same as last time... He'd be cool, I guess, but he doesn't mean anything to me...



Ghirahim: 19.1%
That Fi trophy... ultimately though Sheik being separate means he already has confirmed competition in some ways...

Tingle: 16.1%
Surviving the bloodbath, but nothing specific for people to latch onto.

 

[andimidna]

Isaac:
Chance: 50%
I could see it going either way.
And there's not much more I can say.
Want: 90%
Gimme.
Ray:
Oops. I totally forgot about Ray for the past few months...
Chance: 20%
Sure.
Want: 75%
Yea. Sounds cool.

Ghirahim: 17%
IMO he's the most likely Zelda newcomer and is extremely underrated on SmashBoards.
Tingle: 14%
Sure he's been in a lot of Zelda games. But in 4 out of 6 he's basically just a background detail, that's how unimportant he is to those games. Being a hated character with not much moveset potential (balloons? maps?), an unsuccessful side-series isn't going to be enough to save him. Both Ghirahim and Tetra are more popular picks. And then even Vaati and Ganon are still more popular.
Plus, I have my theory on his appearance that I will be writing tomorrow.

[collapse=almost there...]
DEM CHARTS.

1. Palutena - 95.23% chance
LITTLE MAC - 88.11% chance
2. Pac-Man - 81.24% chance
MEWTWO - 74.24% chance
3. Shulk - 69.73% chance
4. King K. Rool - 68.75% chance
5. Chrom - 68.72% chance
6. Mii - 55.70% chance
7. Dixie Kong - 49.04% chance
8.Takamaru - 46.06% chance
9. Isaac - 33.87% chance
10. Ridley - 33.02% chance

Dang. If Chrom had a 0.03% increase he would have tied with King K Rool!
And if Robin had gone just 1% up from his previous score, he'd have made the chart. But sadly, he went down significantly.

MEWTWO - 81.58% want
1. King K. Rool - 78.88% want
2. Palutena - 77.93% want
LITTLE MAC - 77.00% want
3. Ridley - 74.60% want
4. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57% want
5. Shulk - 70.21% want
6. Isaac - 68.46% want
7. Pac-Man - 60.25% want
8. Bomberman - 59.83% want
9. Robin - 59.64% want
10. Takamaru - 57.21% want

RIP Lip
You managed to get on a chart for like 5 days.
But congrats for Robin on scoring a safe spot on the want chart. Well, not too safe.
But he almost beat Bomberman, and that means something... I think.

 

[Leafeon523]

Figures, we would rate two of my three most wanted newcomers on the same day...
Isaac:
Chance: 45%
I'm guessing that GS4 will be made after the latest Mario golf game is released. Yet considering he was unlockable I brawl, surviving the direct does not mean much. And is it impossible to speculate that him and Shulk can BOTH be playable?
Want: 99%
Because only megaman gets 100%.
Ray:
Chances: 5%.
Poor guy. I used to love the gamecube release of custom robo. I got it for Christmas when it first came out.Back at the time of my pokemon-swamped brain, it had the most fantastic story I had ever seen! Me and my friends would play it for hours on end. It was a little simplistic, but isn't that what kids games are supposed to be like? We'd grab our gatling guns, ignore the bombs and pods ( did anyone actually use them?) and fight! I'm guessing his series is dead though, as we have not heard about it since the ds era. Maybe he could join Captn. Falcon in the "presumably dead series in smash" club, but he does not have the same level of recognition. Maybe at e3 we might hear something like "guess what? we're reviving custom robo and putting Ray in smash!" but that's just vivid imagination at this point.
Want:99.99%
I'll probably be the only person on this site to give him a score anywhere near this high...

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Isaac chance - 60%

Things definitely look iffy for Isaac right now so I can't award him any more than this, but he's not alone in that. I still think he has a decent chance but he's currently slumming it out in the last chance saloon with a couple other characters. Don't count him out just yet.

Isaac want - 100%

I can't say anything I haven't already said before. Smash Bros isn't complete until it gets a playable Golden Sun rep. That'll always be my stance.

Ray chance - 10%

Can't really see it happening.

Ray want - 60%

He looks like he'd be a fun character to play as but I'm not personally invested in his series.

 

[YT123]

Isaac
Chance: 30%
He has a shot I guess..
Want: 25%

Ray
Chance: 2%
Want: 33%

 

[Miffa]

Isaac
Chance: 25%..
Want: 50%

Ray
Chance: 5%
Want: 50%

 

[SmashShadow]

Isaac: 55% He's got 3 decently selling games. He was previously an assist trophy. He survived the massacre. He had a game after brawl. His series just got on the Virtual Console.
Want: 100% My second most wanted newcomer.

Ray MK: 4%
Want: 50%

 

[BluePikmin11]

Isaac and Ray chance: 13% Dipped a 2 percent because of doubt. They both are pretty small series, and just because they were not revealed as ATs back at the direct doesn't mean they will be playable. I see them being unlockable ATs again.

Isaac Want: 10%
Ray Want: 5%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Isaac:
Chance: 50%
So hey, guess what? Turns out Golden Sun on the VC is doing really well! Hoorah! Turns out 'Japan hates Golden Sun' was a load of BS.

On the downside, the VC release is a very recent thing, and really Isaac could of done with his game being released a year ago for his chances to be largely affected by Japan's 'new found' fanbase.

However, like Little Mac, Isaac's always had a rather strong dedicated fanbase for Smash in the west, and (also like Mac) he was one of the most popular characters that ended up as an Assist Trophy in Brawl.

I guess Isaac really could go either way; surviving the AT massacre(RIP Goroh and Saki) is pretty impressive(Tingle was the only other major player that managed it) but in Brawl he was an unlockable AT anyway...so he's not out the woods yet.

If we're talking unique movesets, Isaac offers a lot more than a great deal of other characters can. You can probably get about ten movesets out the guy.

Lastly Golden Sun is one of the last popular Nintendo IPs that really deserves a playable character representing it.

Want: 100%
Golden Sun I feel deserves a character at this point; it's one of the largest Nintendo IPs that hasn't had a playable rep yet(aside from the Mii series). I'm not personally a fan of the series, but I can see far more potential in Isaac than I can a lot of other popular choices. My sister is a huge Golden Sun fan which helps colour my view of the series.

My want is that high mostly for the sake of the Golden Sun Fanbase, and I feel they deserve a character far more than the non existent Wii Fit/Smash Bros theoretical target audience that has been catered for. Seeing 'Sin and Punishment' and 'The Legend of Starfy''s fanbases getting screwed over only increases my want for Isaac.

Ray MK(not sure which one)
Chance: 35%
The other big-ish survivor of the AT massacre(other than Tingle), Ray also reps an unrepped IP of Nintendos. With five games under it's belt, Ray should theoretically have greater chances than Isaac, but Custom Robo has only had one true global release on the DS, and his fanbase as a result is not quite as impressive.
Want: 20%
Unfortunately I don't have any personal connection to Ray at all on account of my country only getting 1/5 of his games. That's still better than Starfy mind you, but as a result there are many, many more characters I have a stronger attachment to than Ray.

20% is due to him being a new series repper, most likely being quite a unique fighter and because I know he does have a fanbase for Smash...but I've never met anyone whose played his game, and I only know him through trophies; Assist or otherwise.

Predictions:
Ghirahim: 12%
Skyward Sword is getting some content impressively, despite the character models leaning far more towards Twilight Princess. Hey; Toon Link gels rather poorly with the TP cast and he was still in Brawl...I can't see NotVaati here blending in any worse.
Tingle: 18%
The other, OTHER big survivor of the AT massacre, Tingle has his own series, is reoccurring, and probably isn't actually as hated these days as everyone keeps making out. Remember when Waluigi was almost universally hated? Or when Golden Sun was disliked in Japan? Or when...yeah, I think the hatebase is overstated. His biggest worry is Termina Bay showing up...