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[NickerBocker]

Takamaru
Chance: 35%
Want: 75%

Lower than last time, but I do think among retros, he has one of, if not the best chance. The real question is whether or not we will actually get a retro. I know that Little Mac technically isn't a retro, but the peak of his popularity was during the NES and SNES era. The Wii version will definitely have some influence in this game, and it has shown. Little Mac could technically count as our retro, but I just don't think that is true. We still have a very good chance of a different retro character. Nintendo has shown some interest in Takamaru over the last little while (NintendoLand, cameo in Samurai warriors.) With that information, we can say that Takamaru could be due for a remake/revival. Sakurai has mentioned that he likes to take old characters and revive their series. He did it with Pit (Still waiting on Ice Climbers ) so who's to say he won't do it again with Takamaru. He's Popular, not so much obscure anymore, somewhat relevant, so he still has a good chance. I have sort of lost a little bit of faith in his inclusion, but his chances are still better than most.

There seems to be this notion that Greninja has stolen some of his spotlight, but I don't think that is necessarily true. In fact, Samurai and Ninja were commonly enemies in futile Japan, and were in fact very different. Ninja used the shadows, trickery, stealth and agility to attack foes, and were commonly unarmoured. They originated from poor farmers attempting to protect their lands from raiders and opposing Shogun's Samurai. The Samurai were the elite warriors of the Shogun, and would bring honor tot heir Shogun by fighting for them, even if this meant death. Being part of the elite, they had the best tools at their disposal. So Samurai (Takamaru) and Ninja (Greninja) are in fact two sides of the same coin, and it would actually make more sense if they were both included. Now we just need a Pirate to fulfill the dream... Tetra?

Samurai can be pretty awesome, and his appearance is the closest thing I'm going to get to Ganbare Goemon (even though he is a Ninja), so I am all for it.

Spoiler

Lip
Chance: 5%
Want: 30%

I have to say, plain and simply, that having Lip's stick as an item does not bode well for her. It would be strange to see a Lip's stick item and then Lip using it as her main tool, just as strange as having Kremlings in but no K Rool (strange dealings indeed.) This doesn't necessarily deconfirm her, because Smash is not Canon and who's to say that a Lip's stick item and Lip and playable cant coexist, but it does not do her any favors.

She could be a cool character, but her chances are not too good. Fortunately for me, I am indifferent to her inclusion, as I am most retros. she loses some want because I still firmly believe people (casuals) will initially confuse her with Daisy. Yes I realize that they look different, but to the common person, at first glance they may make that mistake.

Predictions:
Chrom: 66.5%
Robin: 27.3%

 

[MargnetMan23]

Takamaru
Chance: 35% I don't feel like relying on the chances of a WTF addition is a good strategy xD
Want: 70% He would be cool.

Lip:
Chance: 7% *shrugs*
Want: 30% *shrugs*

Chrom Prediction: 72.45% There's probably going to be as many people who underestimate his chances as they overestimate them.
Robin: 24% I feel like he's probably the one of the most underestimated characters chance wise here... But even then I wouldn't rate him THAT high.

 

[Oblivion129]

Takamaru:
Chance: 50%
Wasn't confirmed as an AT but also doesn't have anything to hint his inclusion.
Want: 80%
A samurai and I like to play as swordsmen so I'd welcome him.

Lip:
Chance: 30%
No hints to her inclusion + Lip's stick item and it seems like Takamaru is the more popular retro character.
Want: 70%
She'll be a cool character, no doubt, but I'd prefer several other characters before her.

Predictions:
Chrom: 80%
Robin: 25%

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Takamaru Likelihood: 65%
Want: 75%

Lip Likelihood: 6%
Want: 70%

Chrom: 79.65%
Robin: 38.65%

 

[Gameboi834]

Takamaru
Chance: 30%
Being new on the forum, I really don't understand the hype around Takamaru. He was in Nintendo Land, but I don't see that as significantly boosting his chances. Nintendo is always looking for ways to use their hardware effectively, and the opportunity arose here to use Takamaru's Ninja Castle.
Want: 50%
That being said, I don't really care either way if he's in or not. If anything it'd just give me a chance to learn more about another Nintendo franchise.

Lip
Chance: 25%
I don't see Lip as being a viable character, but I don't think the Lip's Stick item going against her, either. Plenty of characters have items in their répertoire: Ness with the Bat, Link with Bombs, Bowser with the Fire flower
Want: 50%
Same with Takamaru.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Takamaru
Chance- 40%
Takamaru has been mentioned before by Sakurai and has had some presence as of late. While sharing shurikens with Greninja is far from a disconfirmation, it doesn't help. He seems to have mild popularity, so I don't see that aspect helping or hurting him. It could go either way, but I don't think it is quite a 50/50 thing.
Want- 60%
I'm actually more open to him than I used to be. I think a samurai would be a pretty cool and unique addition, and I feel like a reboot of his series might have some good potential. Being in Smash doesn't guarantee a reboot, but it wouldn't hurt.

Lip
Chance- 5%
Lip's Stick being an item really is bad, though she does have some hope left. Sakurai seems to like Panel de Pon based off the content it has had in the past, and it could be leading up to a Lip reveal... but I wouldn't count on it at this point.
Want- 70%
Panel de Pon is great stuff, and I don't appreciate the way that Lip has been treated. She could have been an interesting character to play.

 

[BKupa666]

Takamaru:

Chance - 75%
Still our best bet for a retro character, although that arguably might be Little Mac, what with all of his arcade references.

Want - 50%
Do not care about one way or the other.

Lip:

Chance - 5%
Lip's Stick, one out of a handful of surprising retro candidates.

Want - 25%
An underrated candidate for the character who could affect the fanbase's fanart most negatively (Krystal obviously having top honors).

Prediction:
Chrom - 79.65% (mostly acceptance, some denial due to his unsavory nature)
Robin - 44.35% (will get some high votes for being a more palatable alternative)

 

[Xenigma]

Takamaru - 25%
This character is bizarre: he's got a lot of traction on Smashboards as the most likely retro character, yet the best evidence he has is some minor cameos (including his name, not Takamaru himself, in Nintendo Land) and the purported idea that Nintendo wants to revive his franchise. If there was any really strong evidence that Nintendo wanted to revive Takamaru's franchise, sure, I might rate him fairly highly, but in my mind the evidence doesn't really support the theory and he's still an unknown outside of Japan and very hardcore Nintendo fans. Heck, I hadn't heard of him before I first came to Smashboards, and I like to think I'm a pretty big Nintendo fan; I can't imagine my case is unusual. I'm willing to give him more credit than most retros due to those cameos and inherent moveset potential (something Sakurai seems to favor this go around if Greninja is any indication), but retros for SSB4 seem so unpredictable (for all we know Little Mac is the retro) and the evidence is weak enough that I'll be keeping his rating cautiously low.
Want - 50% - Don't have any love for the character, but I could see him winning me over if implemented well and I don't really have a favorite retro.

Lip - 2%
I gave this really low rating the last time Lip was rated, and after thinking on why I did so, I'm inclined to stick with it. Aside from the news that Lip's Stick is back once again as an item, which seems like a strong indicator she won't be playable once again, Sakurai in the past has indicated that he's reluctant to use Lip due to her lack of popularity and this isn't a stance I expect him to change since she's just as obscure as she has been in previous Smashes. It's obvious Sakurai likes her/Panel de Pon since the item remains a staple, and there's a strong chance she receives a few more references beyond that, but as a playable character, I have to believe history repeats itself and she doesn't make the cut.
Want - 25% - Doesn't excite me at all, but not a bad retro pick all things considered.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Takamaru chance - 35%

People seem fixated on this guy for some reason, I don't see his chances being that great. Him being the Japanese counterpart to (Legend of Zelda?) doesn't make for a convincing argument for his inclusion. Nor does all the cameos he's been making.

Takamaru want - 0%

Don't see the point of him. We already have Shiek and Greninja who both fill a similar (if not exactly the same) role as Takamaru. Even before they were revealed Takamaru has always seemed dull to me. If he got in it would feel like he just got in because he was retro and "out there" and not for any actual worthwhile reason.

-----------------------

Lip chance - 1%

With Lip's Stick in the game she's taken a major hit. Not completely out of the running, but she might as well be.

Lip want - 75%

Lip seems very different from the existing cast and has moveset potential that would make her stand out. If we were to get a retro pick I'd have wanted it to be her.

 

[FalKoopa]

Want - 25%
An underrated candidate for the character who could affect the fanbase's fanart most negatively (Krystal obviously having top honors).

Lol. Say, is that what you think about Zero Suit Samus too?

 

[praline]

Takamaru: Want 50% Chance 50%
Lip: Want 15% Chance 5%

 

[Capybara Gaming]

BOOM! Pinkie Pie is back and ready to rate!

Takamaru:
Chance - 85% (Shocking!) Yes this may be kinda high, but listen why: Takamaru is popular pretty consistently worldwide, and Sakurai said once that "If Takamaru had a revival he would PROBABLY put him in Smash" (We've had 2 and possibly a 3rd game featuring him as a cameo, reviving him)
Want: 100% Babay! Let's get this guy to show that a-hole Greninja who the real samurai is.

Lip:
Chance: 17% - I sadly don't think she's going to make until at least Smash 5.
Want: 100% Love her to death.

Predictions:
Chrom: 65%
Robin: 35%

Assuming we can't nominate yet?

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Not rating Takamaru.

Lip Chance: 25%

I still don't believe Lip's stick deconfirms Lip. There is no evidence to support any sort of major weapon deconfirming a character. Not only that, but there are ways to move around the issue. Seeing how Lip is an old character, a redesign could be in order. With a redesign Lip comes a redesigned flower. There is other minor not as likely things such as using Furil instead or Sakurai just not caring that the item and the weapon co-exist.

Still, Lip was never a likely candidate in the sea of other characters. I was just pointing out that Lip's stick doesn't really affect her chances. However, with the increase of Panel De Pon content in smash bros over the years and Sakurai being on record of liking Panel de Pon, Lip could make it into Smash bros someday. Who knows when though.

Lip Want: 100%

She is my most wanted newcomer after all. In addition to adding more cuteness to the roster, she also provides an element not seen in smash bros. Puzzle Games. With her block switching ability and garbage blocks, she makes a very interesting character for sure. She even brings an extra ability in being a Sapper character. With her weapon of choice, she can easily deal tons of damage over time. Some might say this doesn't matter since that entire playstyle is already put into her stick. But I like to think of Lip's stick as a taste of what Lip can really do. The downsides of Lip strengths being of course having low killing power and being a lightweight. With the addition of Lip comes the addition of Panel De Pon content. Whether it be a glorious stage, trophies, and/or music, Lip really does bring with her some amazing things to the Smash series. All and all, Lip is an amazing character that would bring some fresh things in moves and content while remaining fun to play as.

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Takamaru Chance: 70%
Takamaru Want: 85%

Though I do think Greninja hurt Takamaru's chances a little bit, he's still one of the most likely, if not the most likely, retro reps in my mind. Takamaru's potential is very high, and he'd be a very cool character addition into Smash, though most would not know who he is.

Lip Chance: 0.5%
Lip Want: 10%

Lip's Stick's an item, so I'm positive Lip won't be playable, but there is still an inkling of chance. I never really found the appeal of Lip, so I really wouldn't want her to be playable, anyways. There are better retro reps out there.

 

[Kapus]

Takamaru

Chance - 60% Not a shoe-in, but is probably the most likely retro character, getting a lot of recognition from Nintendo recently and a lot of requests from fans. Don't really know too much about him aside from that, but I think he has a decent shot.
Want - 50% Not my ideal retro newcomer, but I wouldn't say no to him.

Lip

Chance - 8% Already had an unfavorable chance of being playable, but the Lip's Stick item only goes to hurt her further. She's pretty obscure, she's Japan only, she's not very well requested even in her home country (at least not anymore), she has potential competition in Takamaru, and her own series abandoned her in favor of a generic theme. In her favor, Sakurai really likes her series and has given several nods to it in Smash Bros over the years (she gets a whole item to herself, wow). She was also given a nice cameo in Captain Rainbow as one of the forgotten Nintendo characters, and Captain Rainbow so far has acknowledgment in SSB4. Despite this, I am not confident in Lip's chances at all. I think the bad outweighs the good here, sadly.

Thus far, Sakurai seems to be adding characters that have a lot of appeal and are easily recognizable to the vast majority of people. I am not confident in Lip's chances primarily for this reason.

Want - 110% duh.

 

[CanadianSmasher1992]

Been lurking here for quite some time and finally decided to join in on the discussion!

Takamaru:

Chance: 70% - I feel like being a Japanese-only game character and a retro character aids his chances more than what others may think. Sakurai may view Takamaru as someone akin to Marth and Roy-- a Japanese-only character that Americans will respond positively to. In addition, his "appearance/cameo" in Nintendoland helps his chances because it shows that Nintendo is aware of him and this is huge considering he is a Japanese-only video game character. Obviously, this in stark contrast to Lip who is, sort of, in the same boat being a Japanese-only character, but not receiving the same treatment.

Want - 50% - I really don't care for him. But I think it would be epic if we could have a sort of East vs. West battle going with Little Mac facing off against Takamaru.

Lip:

Chance: 5% - I actually think the confirmation that Lip's Stick is returning as an item doesn't hinder her chances at all because Sakurai can build up a moveset out of so many other things like garbage blocks, etc. But the thing is, I just can't envision Sakurai choosing her over other characters. There's limited space on the roster with a cap of, I would guess, 48 characters. We have 29 characters confirmed already. With no cuts, we have 45 and then there's "obvious" shoo-ins like Palutena and Mewtwo. I just don't see room. If the roster was 55+ then her chances might be better, but she's an obscure Japanese-only character who hasn't received attention from Nintendo as of late, not in the same vain as Takamaru anyway.

Want - 80% - I really like her. I think she's unique. I think she has amazing moveset potential. I sympathize with her fans. And it sucks that her game never made it to America (and Canada). Would love to play as her.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Been lurking here for quite some time and finally decided to join in on the discussion!

Takamaru:

Chance: 70% - I feel like being a Japanese-only game character and a retro character aids his chances more than what others may think. Sakurai may view Takamaru as someone akin to Marth and Roy-- a Japanese-only character that Americans will respond positively to. In addition, his "appearance/cameo" in Nintendoland helps his chances because it shows that Nintendo is aware of him and this is huge considering he is a Japanese-only video game character. Obviously, this in stark contrast to Lip who is, sort of, in the same boat being a Japanese-only character, but not receiving the same treatment.

Want - 50% - I really don't care for him. But I think it would be epic if we could have a sort of East vs. West battle going with Little Mac facing off against Takamaru.

Lip:

Chance: 5% - I actually think the confirmation that Lip's Stick is returning as an item doesn't hinder her chances at all because Sakurai can build up a moveset out of so many other things like garbage blocks, etc. But the thing is, I just can't envision Sakurai choosing her over other characters. There's limited space on the roster with a cap of, I would guess, 48 characters. We have 29 characters confirmed already. With no cuts, we have 45 and then there's "obvious" shoo-ins like Palutena and Mewtwo. I just don't see room. If the roster was 55+ then her chances might be better, but she's an obscure Japanese-only character who hasn't received attention from Nintendo as of late, not in the same vain as Takamaru anyway.

Want - 80% - I really like her. I think she's unique. I think she has amazing moveset potential. I sympathize with her fans. And it sucks that her game never made it to America (and Canada). Would love to play as her.

Welcome to the boards!

 

[CanadianSmasher1992]

Welcome to the boards!

Thank you!

Oh yeah, forgot to put in my predictions for Chrom and Robin too.

Chrom - 75%
Robin - 25%

 

[SchAlternate]

The Sword
Chances: 35% - As a retro character, Takamaru didn't really have a huge chance so to speak. Among the plethora of potential retros, however, I'd say Takamaru boasts the higher chance of getting in, as he has been slowly been gaining more recognition over the years, being present as cameos in some recent games.
Want: 45% - That being said, I'm pretty eh about him. Sure, he'd be cool, but I'm not really desperate for him.

The Rose
Chances: 20% - Although Lip's Stick doesn't really lower her chances by a large margin, her chances were already bleak to begin with. Being slightly more obscure than Takamaru, she's not really well known among the fanbase. Though I'd say that her progressively more prominent presence in the series (her item debuting in Melee and a garbage block appearing as one of Kirby's stone transformation, her theme being in Brawl) and Sakurai stating that her game is a "masterpiece" might imply a possible inclusion sooner or later.
Want: 100% - On that note, I WANT HER IN THE GAME SO BADLY SHE COULD BE SO UNIQUE AND HER GAME IS FREAKING AWESOME AND SHE'S SO BLOODY CUTE AND SSSDGASHJGDJASVFVBASFBIASUBFIASBF

 

[Smasher 101]

Takamaru's chances: 50% - I don't think his chances have changed.
Want: 25% - I've never been interested.

Lip's chances: 5% - Chances weren't amazing to begin with, the official confirmation of Lip's Stick returning drops them even lower.
Want: 80% - Still my second most wanted retro.

Chrom prediction: 56.29% - Should go up.
Robin prediction: 24.15% - Should go down.

 

[BKupa666]

Lol. Say, is that what you think about Zero Suit Samus too?

I would shed zero tears if ZSS were cut from a future Smash game, although sadly, the damage is already done in her case.

 

[Erimir]

I don't know why so many people think Takamaru is more likely than not.

There's literally no evidence for his inclusion. That is, there are no hints in the Smash game or from Sakurai. Sakurai said if he got a revival, he'd probably put him in... and he's gotten more recognition, but no revival yet. There's only evidence that he's a better candidate than most other retro options (Lip, Mach Rider, Duck Hunt Dog, Muddy Mole, Sheriff, Sukapon, etc.). But that doesn't translate into a 70% chance, IMO. It just makes him first among the remaining retros.

 

[RankoChan]

Lip -
Chance: 35%
Want: 100%
Pros:
- She is the mascot of Panel De Pon/Puzzle League, a popular and active series.
- She has appeared or has been alluded to in every Panel de Pon/Puzzle League title to date except for her game's western releases (which usually have her replaced or removed from the game).
- Smash Bros. frequently references her series and more importantly Lip herself.
- Sakurai has stated he likes her and has called her game a masterpiece.
- A puzzle rep would be a very unique and currently lacking addition.
- She was a major character alongside Little Mac and Takamaru in Captain Rainbow.
- She could be used to promote the next entry in the Panel de Pon/Puzzle League series (which usually gets one game per console).
Cons:
- While her series is well known, Lip herself is a fairly obscure character, especially outside of Japan due to the re-branding of her games.
- Her weapon is a confirmed item.

I can definitely see her still playable alongside her weapon as an item, but it does hurt her chances a bit. At this point she's playable and Lip's stick was too much of a series staple to remove, or she's doomed to represent Panel de Pon in Smash as an item once more. Lip is definitely my number one most wanted newcomer, I have many fond memories of playing Tetris Attack as a kid. If she doesn't make it in, I'd love to see a Panel de Pon stage at least.

Takamaru -
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%
Pros:
- He is the last main character of the four major FDS series (Zelda, Kid Icarus, Metroid, Murasame Castle) to not be playable.
- Nintendo has been pushing to revive his series lately with its Nintendo Land and Samurai Warriors appearances.
- He was a major character alongside Little Mac and Lip in Captain Rainbow.
- He is the most requested retro character.
- He could be used to promote the revival of the Murasame Castle series if it gets a new game.
Cons:
- Greninja uses some of the moves that would have made him unique (shurikens and other ninja related moves).

I'm a fan of japanese culture and could see Takamaru using a design inspired by folklore art like Okami. If his stage looked anything like Okami's art style I would be all the more pleased. Plus samurai are awesome.

 

[IvanQuote]

Pity I know neither but I'll comment anyway:

Takamaru:

Chance: 70%

He's been popping up in a lot of games recently (C. Rainbow, Nintendo Land, music in Brawl, etc.) so he definitely looks like Nintendo is trying to reintroduce him. SSB is also known to be a gateway for marketing new games, so this could be a really good way...

Want: 30%

...unfortunately, from what I've look at from his abilities, he would be somewhat generic, especially with Greninja around. Unless Sakurai manages to make something unique in him, as he did for Falcon, ZSS, Pit, etc. I would not really want him.

Lip:

Chances: 15%

Compared to any other retro, I feel that she would not be picked (Lip's Stick item). Especially compared to Taka up there.

Want: 75%

I just recently look into her and possible movesets provided by the nice people of the forums and decided that she would be a unique, cool addition. Also, I don't believe there is a fighter specifically dedicated to the puzzle genre yet (the Doctor doesn't count.) Also, she could still use the wand too, just of perhaps a different design with less draining properties? (Let's face it, if every standard attack had draining, she would probably be broken.)

All of the above is assuming that Lil' Mac is not considered retro (which i doubt due to Punch Out Wii, but this could put Lip into hot water too with Panel de Pon DS.) Then again, you know what they say about what it means to assume...

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Takamaru

30%

Greninja kills a lot of his ground since he kindof have move set that he would do and the ninja is a stealth version of a samurai at first I was hopeful but greninja easily hurt him a bunch

70%
I would love him playable

Chance 5%

Yea the lip stick item is a dead give away that she fail to get to playable status

Want 0%

Never heard of her

 

[SmasherMaster]

Takamaru

Chance: 60%
Well, it seems like he has been in a lot of newer games lately, (small appearances, but still.) and he would compliment Little Mac well with the West vs East themes we have seen.

Want: 75%
I like him, one of my favorite retro choices.

Lip
Chance: 40%
Why is she unlikely because Lip Stick is an item? So is Link, Marth, Ike, Meta Knight and Toon Link cut for using swords? Plus there was the block on the Nintendogs stage.

Want: 75%
I like her, and she's one of my other favorite retro choices.

In conclusion, the Captain Rainbow japan exclusive retro duo are both on similar in likeliness and want with me.

 

[andimidna]

Never heard of her

Don't you want to do at least a little bit of research?

http://smashboards.com/threads/puzz...b4-sticking-to-be-faceless-once-again.324269/
http://nintendo.wikia.com/wiki/Lip
http://www.mariowiki.com/Panel_de_Pon

Just... 1 of those?
...C'mon...

 

[Burigu]

Takamaru
Chance: 30%
being the most retro wanted character is not that impresive, he is not really known, that said it doesn't stop Ice Climbers for made to the game.
Want: 15%
Don't have personal reason to like the character

Lip
Chance: 0%
At this point giving her a 10% is being extremely optimitic, the claim that the item doesn't desconfirm her is like saying Toad is alive despite being Peach's special
Want: 40%
She would do an interesting character

Lip
Chance: 40%
Why is she unlikely because Lip Stick is an item? So is Link, Marth, Ike, Meta Knight and Toon Link cut for using swords? Plus there was the block on the Nintendogs stage..

If you are implying Beam sword or fire bar etc ( sword items like Lip's Stick) don't desconfirm Link, Marth, Ike, Meta Knight and Toon Link? those are just generic swords not their signatures ones, if said swords items were Master Sword, Falchion, Ragnell and Galaxia and were confirmed as items I would be pretty sure they would and should be considereded desconfirmed.

I like her but the Stick has her name in it, why cut a item form a character that is considered, it doesn't make sense.

OK she might have other moves I don't doubt it but the stick is part of her identity

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Don't you want to do at least a little bit of research?

http://smashboards.com/threads/puzz...b4-sticking-to-be-faceless-once-again.324269/
http://nintendo.wikia.com/wiki/Lip
http://www.mariowiki.com/Panel_de_Pon

Just... 1 of those?
...C'mon...

No I know who lip is I mean't I don't know about her

 

[Toxicroaker]

Lip
Chance: 0%
At this point giving her a 10% is being extremely optimitic, the claim that the item doesn't desconfirm her is like saying Toad is alive despite being Peach's special
Want: 40%
She would do an interesting character



If you are implying Beam sword or fire bar etc ( sword items like Lip's Stick) doesn't desconfirm Link, Marth, Ike, Meta Knight and Toon Link those are just generic sword not their signatures ones, if said sword items were Master Sword, Falchion, Ragnell and Galaxia and were confirmed as items I would be pretty sure they would and should be considereded desconfirmed.

I like her but the Stick has her name in it, why cut a item form a character that is considered, it doesn't make sense.

OK she might have other moves I don't doubt it but the stick is part of her identity

FINALLY!!! Most people don't get that.

 

[andimidna]

Takamaru
Chance: 30%
being the most retro wanted character is not that impresive, he is not really known, that said it doesn't stop Ice Climbers for made to the game.
Want: 15%
Don't have personal reason to like the character

Lip
Chance: 0%
At this point giving her a 10% is being extremely optimitic, the claim that the item doesn't desconfirm her is like saying Toad is alive despite being Peach's special
Want: 40%
She would do an interesting character



If you are implying Beam sword or fire bar etc ( sword items like Lip's Stick) don't desconfirm Link, Marth, Ike, Meta Knight and Toon Link, those are just generic swords not their signatures ones, if said swords items were Master Sword, Falchion, Ragnell and Galaxia and were confirmed as items I would be pretty sure they would and should be considereded desconfirmed.

I like her but the Stick has her name in it, why cut a item form a character that is considered, it doesn't make sense.

OK she might have other moves I don't doubt it but the stick is part of her identity

FINALLY!!! Most people don't get that.

Toad is physically in pictures as a move. Lip's stick is an item Lip would use to attack.
However, what you may be forgetting is, Panel De Pon isn't a fighting game where you give opponents damage.
It's a puzzle game, and it's used completely differently. Like:

Credit for above goes to the Lip support thread

Now, what's wrong with Lip's Stick as an item and her holding a redesigned one?
Sword characters hold the beam sword, and while that's a bit different as it doesn't have their names in the item, it shows that she's not deconfirmed but her chances are lowered.

 

[SmasherMaster]

Takamaru
Chance: 30%
being the most retro wanted character is not that impresive, he is not really known, that said it doesn't stop Ice Climbers for made to the game.
Want: 15%
Don't have personal reason to like the character

Lip
Chance: 0%
At this point giving her a 10% is being extremely optimitic, the claim that the item doesn't desconfirm her is like saying Toad is alive despite being Peach's special
Want: 40%
She would do an interesting character



If you are implying Beam sword or fire bar etc ( sword items like Lip's Stick) don't desconfirm Link, Marth, Ike, Meta Knight and Toon Link? those are just generic swords not their signatures ones, if said swords items were Master Sword, Falchion, Ragnell and Galaxia and were confirmed as items I would be pretty sure they would and should be considereded desconfirmed.

I like her but the Stick has her name in it, why cut a item form a character that is considered, it doesn't make sense.

OK she might have other moves I don't doubt it but the stick is part of her identity

I meant that they do not just use a weapon for their entire moveset. And characters have used items in their movesets before.

Lip is not deconfirmed because the Lip Stick is an item.

 

[Groose]

Been lurking here for quite some time and finally decided to join in on the discussion!

Welcome to the boards and to the game! If you have any questions or anything like that, feel free to shoot me a PM, and I'll do the best I can to help you.

I don't know why so many people think Takamaru is more likely than not.

There's literally no evidence for his inclusion. That is, there are no hints in the Smash game or from Sakurai. Sakurai said if he got a revival, he'd probably put him in... and he's gotten more recognition, but no revival yet. There's only evidence that he's a better candidate than most other retro options (Lip, Mach Rider, Duck Hunt Dog, Muddy Mole, Sheriff, Sukapon, etc.). But that doesn't translate into a 70% chance, IMO. It just makes him first among the remaining retros.

I agree. I personally think you have to give Takamaru a good deal of credit--he does have more going for him than any other Retro candidate by a pretty good margin--but I feel like disregarding his competition is a mistake. His competitors don't have quality on their side, but they have sheer quantity; there are over a dozen semi-respectable choices for a revival. Although Takamaru is usually the Retro on my prediction rosters, I usually make a footnote that I would not be overly surprised to see another Retro candidate, but I would be unable to make any rational prediction on which one.

Retro Day
Before the Direct, I calculated that there was an 80% chance of getting a Retro character. This was based mostly off of precedent (we've had revivals in two games in a row) and Sakurai's comments (something like "I will do my best to bring back old characters"). I gave the lion's share of 35% back then to Takamaru; Lip earned a 15%; the rest of the Retros combined for a total of 30%.
The Direct and the time I spent thinking did affect how I view our Retro contenders. Seeing Wireframe Mac made me seriously consider whether or not Little Mac counted as our "old character" in this iteration; it made me switch to thinking that there is only a 66% chance of seeing a/another revival in this game instead of 80%. Naturally, all Retros would suffer a little from this. However, the Direct did bring a certain character into question for me...

Lip Chance: 3%
Do I think that Lip's Stick hurts her as much as Villager's recovery hurts the Balloon Fighter? No. Do I think it does hurt her? Definitely. I view her stick returning as an item as the equivalent of seeing the Master Sword or the Monado as an item--I don't think we would get a character if the thing they rely most heavily upon is already an item, but I do see it as possible. Overall, I just feel like we have our indicator that although she seemed to have the second-best shot, she was passed over again.

Lip Want: 33%
I like her moveset potential and Puzzle League roots, but I don't really like her or her design.

Takamaru Chance: 33%
Yes, Takamaru is down 2% in my eyes since last time. This is partly due to my greater skepticism about the prospects of a revival and partly due to his similarities of Greninja (Ninjas and Samurai are different, yes, but two of Takamaru's main moves are a Shruiken and brief invisibility, both things that Greninja got). I think you can knock a percentage off on each count.

Takamaru Want: 50%
Takamaru is one of the few characters that I'm completely neutral on. If he's out, I won't really think anything of it. If he's in, I'll say something like, "oh, hey, it's Takamaru. He looks pretty cool. I wonder if his series will make a comeback?"

So my Retro Breakdown went from:
35% Takamaru
30% Others
15% Lip

to

33% Takamaru
30% Others
3% Lip

DAY OVER
...the past is in the past!​

 

[Groose]

Takamaru
46.06% chance (was 49.67%)
57.21% want (was 57.51%)
Takamaru... didn't really change. Both his chance and want fell a little bit since the last rating, but they didn't go down by much. He may lose a place or two on the chance chart, but his position on the want chart will stay the same. The Direct never mentioned Takamaru or anything really relating to him, so I suppose it's only natural that he stays pretty much unchanged in this turbulent time.

Lip
12.64% chance (was 22.62%)
57.09% want (was 56.45%)
Like Takamaru, Lip's want score remained virtually the same. However, Lip differs from Takamaru in that her chance score shifted and that something relating to her came out along with the Direct. The confirmation of Lip's Stick as a returning item has led us to roughly halve her chances, which remain strong for a Retro candidate. Lip's time in our Top Twenty was short-lived, but she is still one of the most notable characters that we have rated.

You'll get no sympathy from your fellow raters today! The Chrom-Robin duel is returning to RTC, and this time the two combatants will be rated during the same day. In the blue corner we have Chrom, star of Fire Emblem's newest game. Although he does get bashed on for being "another blue-haired Lord," his supporters point out that he can be made unique with things like a stance-based moveset and that he deserves no less--he is the main character in the game that saved the Fire Emblem franchise, after all. In the red corner we have Robin the Tactician, a character that also provided an important role in the latest Fire Emblem game. Although that role is not as obviously big as Chrom's, he is definitely more unique than Chrom at first glance; he's not a "blue-haired lord" and he could have access to a unique magic based moveset, his supporters argue. His detractors usually counter with the importance argument and the "basic avatar" argument.

...now that I've introduced the characters, it's time to rate them! Please rate Chrom and Robin today! While I have seemingly pitted the two characters together, let's not try to start an actual war between them; today might go more smoothly if you try not to argue that your interpretation of the evidence is the best or only one. Remember, we all have the same evidence; it's our interpretations of it that make our scores different and no interpretation is inherently better until the roster is revealed. I did put the two in the same day so that we could get the controversy over in one day instead of stretching it to two days; let's not make my decision a bad one by turning that one day into a nuclear blast zone. I'd like to remind you that nominations are currently on hold. Tomorrow we will be rating Isaac and Ray (the main "missing ATs"), so please predict how that duo will do.

 

[andimidna]

(I finally finished my post btw)
My laptop gets really slow when gifs are involved.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm surprised that Lip managed to muster a chance score that is over 10%... huh...
Chrom and Robin have been added to the Directory.
If you've rated these two before, check to see what you've said on their days!

I'm... not going to rate these characters now. I'll make a separate post and rate them tomorrow. This day will definitely get ugly.

 

[Wyoming]

Chrom

Chance - 97% - Clearly if any Fire Emblem character gets added, it is going to be him. The creators most likely did put him on who they want to represent the series. If it's anyone else it would be quite a shock.

Want - 50% - I have no preference whatsoever. Like Shulk, he is obviously popular and might be interesting to play as I just don't care if he's in or not really but kudos to those who want him.

Robin:

Chance - 3% - Yeah, would be a shock this...for me anyway. You can't rule it out per say, but I imagine Chrom, Lucina, Ike and possibly even Roy would be over him/her on the priority list.

Want - 30% - See Chrom, except not as in demand as the blue-haired swordsman which takes him/her down a bit.

 

[Starbound]

Chrom: 99% Chance / 0% Want
Gematsu leak with the chance of a ChromCina team. Absolutely hate the character.

Robin: 3% Chance / 0% Want
Gematsu leak and Chrom kill him. Hate this charater too.

 

[loganhogan]

Chrom
chance 80% want 0%

Thanks to Awakening's success the Awakening cast has become very popular, Chrom in particular is waved as the more likely possibility and reasonably so. He's the go to main character, he's popular, and it would seem like he isn't held back as much as his competition is. To his advantage there's also a potential leak backing him up. However I confess I expect Chrom but I don't like him at all. Truth is I find him entirely forgettable and bit too cookie cutter plain. It's a good thing Awakening has pair-up because I hardly ever use him and when I do it's to pass skills down to his children. He's actually that one character I would bench if I could. I could almost swear he's an Ike expy.

Robin

chance 33% want 77%

Chrom's more diverse but less popular co-protagonist they lack the poster-status Chrom has. However Robin's unique abilities could give him the edge. It could be that our benevolent developers want something different among the Fire Emblem cast. Greninja and Rosalina's inclusions give some hope to the underdogs like this guy. Robin is not my favorite character but I like their potential.

 

[andimidna]

We're getting closer and closer to the day where we get to see these charts in full picture form!
Now both veteran Mewtwo and confirmed Little Mac are being compared in these Top Ten Charts


1. Palutena - 95.23% chance
LITTLE MAC - 88.11% chance
2. Pac-Man - 81.24% chance
MEWTWO - 74.24% chance
3. Shulk - 69.73% chance
4. King K. Rool - 68.75% chance
5. Mii - 55.70% chance
6. Dixie Kong - 49.04% chance
7.Takamaru - 46.06% chance
8. Chrom - 44.56% chance
9. Isaac - 33.87% chance
10. Ridley - 33.02% chance

Takamaru may have only gone down 3%, but it put him down the ranks by one slot.
There's no doubt he would have zoomed up near the top if it wasn't for Greninja.
The Captain Rainbow reference and Lip being much less of a competition are what kept Greninja from dealing much damage to Takamaru.

I found it neat that Palutena beats what you guys rated Little Mac by about 7%

MEWTWO - 81.58% want
1. King K. Rool - 78.88% want
2. Palutena - 77.93% want
LITTLE MAC - 77.00% want
3. Ridley - 74.60% want
4. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57% want
5. Shulk - 70.21% want
6. Isaac - 68.46% want
7. Pac-Man - 60.25% want
8. Bomberman - 59.83% want
9. Takamaru - 57.21% want
10. Lip - 57.09% want

Nothing changed. Takamaru and Lip are much closer to each other. But there's nothing else to be said.

But I found it neat that Palutena now beats what Little Mac's want score was. And that Ridley now looses to it.