Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[jaytalks]

SSB4 Outsells Brawl: 2% Chance
Considering that the Wii's install base is at least twice the size of the 3DS and Wii U install bases combined, I doubt it.

While that is technically true at the moment, that's comparing the Wii's lifetime sales to where the 3DS is currently at about halfway through its system life cycle and we are 2 years in the Wii U's life cycle. When Brawl was released, Wii actually had a smaller install base than the 3DS does at the moment. While the Wii U probably won't change drastically, the 3DS can still sizable increase its install base, especially considering the life cycle of the original DS.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Quick ratings tonight:

SSB4 outsells Brawl - 50%

I feel this one is on the verge of going either way.

Want - Abstain

City Trial Stage - 5%

Don't really see this getting in over other Kirby stages.

Want - 60%

I'm always open to more Kirby stages.

Unlockable Taunts - 40%

I really don't know what to think about this one. On one hand, it seems like it could be a neat new feature to taunts, but on the other hand....there's really no way to know whether or not Sakurai had even thought about something like this at some point.

Want - 60%

I just want to see some more clever and funny taunts, some of which may end up becoming even more hilarious as memes. If this meant some additional taunts then sure I'd be more up for it, but it could also just end up having to unlock one or two of three taunts, which I'd be a tad bit annoyed by.

May add predictions later.

Wreck-It Ralph x5

 

[Turmalinium]

SSB4 outsells Brawl
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%
City Trial Stage
Chance: 10%
Want: 10%
Unlockable Taunts
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%
Predictions
Duck Hunt Dog: 20%
Impa: 40%
Use Your Own Villager/Robin: 5%
Nomination
Dark Pit as Stage Boss x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Smash 4 outsells Brawl: 95%
I think it will happen. The 3DS has a large install base, and while the Wii U is lagging, Smash 4 itself will probably become the killer app the Wii U needs so desperately.

Want: 75%
While I do want the game to sell well, it's not something I actually care about that much.

City Trial Stage: 5%
While Smash Run is based on it, I don't think it will get a stage.

Want: 50%
Don't Care.

Unlockable Taunts: 0%
I still see every character having 3 taunts.Where would the rest of the taunts be assigned?

Want: 50%
Don't care. I also seems too little of a thing to unlock.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I still see every character having 3 taunts.Where would the rest of the taunts be assigned?

Customisation.


4>3: 75%

I'm not so sure, one the one hand the 3DS' install base is great, but on the other hand it's generally thought of as a party game, and they are generally prefered on home console... but Mario Party DS is the best selling of the series, and that's basically the first handheld Mario Party in terms of actual gameplay, so maybe the same will hold true for the first portable Smash Bros game.

I think it's more likely than not though, by quite some way, but not assured as the market can be fickle, and I imagine there won't be many buying for both systems unless they have cross-system unlocks (ie. you can only unlock Ridley on the Wii U and had to transfer it over to play on the 3DS). To be fair though, that would be a fantastic marketing plan, we should totally have rated that!

Want: 100%
Brawl's only saving grace is that you get a free copy of Project M with it. This game at least looks like it'll be fun in FFA, so it should do better to regain Smash' name.



City Trial: 0.1%
Technically possible, but if we get an Air Ride stage it's going to be a track.

Want: 0%
It'd be pretty boring...


Unlockable Taunts: 1%
We've already seen the customisation screen, and it's not on there...

Want: 70%
Ofcourse it depends on the taunts, but getting something like Juggling Diddy would be amazing, even if I have to unlock it!

 

[TechPowah]

Can't go over all my reasonings, but:

The Combined Sales of The 3DS and Wii U Versions Exceed Brawl's Sales
Chance: 100% - It's inevitable. Between the new features, characters and various doodads either version have, sonmething would be off if they DIDN'T go over Brawl's sales.
Want: Abstain - I would want it to, just not in a way that I can pinpoint a percentage for it.

City Trial (Kirby) as a New Stage
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

New Taunts to be Unlocked
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Predictions:
The Dog (Duck Hunt) as a Playable Newcomer: 20% Chance, 19% Want
Impa (Zelda) as a Playable Newcomer: 28% Chance, 33% Want
Imported Villager and Robin Appearances from Animal Crossing: New Leaf and Fire Emblem: Awakening: 10% Chance, 48% Want

 

[FalKoopa]

Customisation.

Isn't customisation limited to specials?

 

[Sid-cada]

4 outsells Brawl

Chance - 80% - As there are two versions, one of which as already doing decently, I'd say it has a reasonable shot. Just that Brawl soled like hotcakes on the Wii.

Want - 75% - Heck, yes. Why wouldn't I want a game I like to do well?


City Trail Stage

Chance - 0% - Wow, such a very old game with so little potential. I'd don't see why they would go through with this.

Want - 20% - I can name 5 different Kirby stages that are better off the top of my head. Nutty Noon, Patch Land, Lollipop Land, Royal Road, Shiver Star's Factory.


New Taunts

Chance - 0% - Nope. I'd think they would have reviled this with the customization options.

Want - 50% - Meh. Don't care.


Nominations

"Moonstruck Blossom" X10

 

[Rie Sonomura]

4 outsells Brawl
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

City Trial stage: abstain

Unlockable taunts
Chance: 10%
Want: abstain

Nominations:
"Captain Falcon's theme" x 5

 

[a smart guy]

It's good to be back.
4 outsells Brawl:
Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

City Trial stage:
Chance: 30%
Want: 50% Just don't take away Fountain of Dreams again.

Unlockable taunts
Chance: 10%
Want: 0% I want to taunt immediately.

I'm not sure how many nominations I have left.
Unknown Renders Leak x15? (I think)

 

[UnicornDemon]

SSB4 Outsells Brawl- 40%, Wii sold way better, but there's a solid chance due to it being on the 3DS
Want- 100%, Why not? More sales means more support on both sides (consumer and Nintendo)

Unlockable Taunts- 10%
Want- 70%, This was cool in Playstation All-Stars, but in that game all characters and stages were unlocked from the start. It may be a bit much with all the other unlockables going in Smash.

City Trial Stage- 10%, The stage is from an old game and to resurrect it would be rather odd. However, given the explicit references to the mode, there's definitely a chance of it occurring.
Want- 100%, I played Kirby Air Ride a lot as a child and I found the City Trial mode to be incredibly fun. My brother, friends, and I played it for hours on end. I could see a stage based on it acting similarly to Skyloft or Delfino Plaza. I would have a huge nostalgia rush playing on such a stage, and I'd be happy about the fact it may bring enough demand for a sequel to Kirby: Air Ride.

Bowser Jr. x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

SSB4 outsells Brawl
Chance: 30% - The best chance of this happening is for multiple people to buy both versions.
Want: 100% - We all want the game to do well.

City Trial Stage
Chance: 1% - I'd like to think that the creator of the Kirby franchise could think of a more imaginative Kirby stage than this.
Want: 17% - I'm not really on board with this.

Unlockable Taunts
Chance: 20% - Well Brawl had unlockable stickers and that's already the most pointless prize ever.
Want: 0% - We have to work for unlockables so they better be good. Having unlockable taunts is like a child hearing his parents tell him that they'll give him a special prize if he gets straight A's on his report card. He works really hard all semester hoping for a bicycle or a 3DS. Then when he succeeds in getting straight A's his parents reward him with a single strand of chewing gum. Okay maybe that's an extreme example but I'd still like unlockable content to be limited to better things like stages and characters.

Predictions
Duck Hunt Dog: 96%
Impa: 9%
Transferring own Villager and Robin: 1%

Nominations: Micaiah AT x5

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Unlockable taunts?! SERIOUSLY?!?!
0%
I'm sorry, that's just too silly!

But Sm4sh outselling Brawl?
Chance: Obviously 100%
Sakurai has expanded Smash's influence to Capcom and Namco fanpeople, and there are a lot of exciting newcomers, so there's no way in hell that Smash 4 will be a big flop.

 

[Deleted member]

I will now be playing this game as an ordinary player, not your manager!

Smash 4 Outsells Brawl
Chance: 5%
I can't say for sure...
The 3DS version alone might sell more copies than Brawl, but not everyone buys Smash. You also have to take into consideration that the Wii U is a failing system; Smash will help, but not by a drastic amount. Combined totals might get close to Brawl levels.
Want: 100%
I always root for the underdog.

City Trial Stage
Chance: 5%
If we are going to get a Kirby stage, it will be something from Returns to Dream Land, not Kirby Air Ride. I'm not confident that we will see this city pop up at all. I can see the music return however...
On a side note, I hope that the City Trial theme is at least on the 3DS version. City Trial's theme while playing Smash Run, which City Trial was the inspiration for? Hell yes!
Want: 100%
I love this mode to death and it's the reason why I occasionally pick up and play Kirby Air Ride. If it was a stage, I would love it.

Unlockable Taunts
Chance: 5%
I'm not sure why they would go out of their way to make Taunts unlockable.
Want: 0%
Nope. I rather have them all from the get-go.

Duck Hunt Dog Prediction: 78.03%
LEAKS, LEAKS, AND MORE LEAKS!
Impa Prediction: 9.33%
Why are we re-rating her?
Use Your Own Villager/Robin Prediction: 5.00%
This requires too much space and data. I doubt that they will sacrifice it for Robin and the Villager.

Nominations: Unknown Renders Leak 5x

DAY NOT OVER!
I'M NOT GROOSE!​

 

[BluePikmin11]

So there has been some footage of the Roster leak recently, this is why I want to badly rate DHD, Dark Pit, and Bowser Jr. now.

Nominations:
x5 Bowser Jr.

 

[Deleted member]

So there has been some footage of the Roster leak recently, this is why I want to badly rate DHD, Dark Pit, and Bowser Jr. now.

Nominations:
x5 Duck Hunt Dog

We're rating the Duck Hunt Dog tomorrow!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Unlockable Taunts:

Chance: 1%
Want: 25%

Highly doubt it. Every char gets 3 already, and the customization is limited to basic specials. Most characters have at least one, if not two good taunts, so they're not getting more.
​

City Trial Stage:

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

We've got Smash Run, so this seems superfluous. Then again, it is from one of the Wunderkind franchises, so there is favoritism there.
​

SSB4 outselling Brawl:

Chance: 75%
Want: abstain

Depends on how we're looking at it. First week? Not a chance. Overall, though seems likely. Not the least of which is the release on two consoles, one of which is portable. I do think that SSB4U will give a huge boost to WiiU sales, though, since SSB is basically Nintendo's console-selling franchise. SBB was why I got my Wii, and I've only got one game on my WiiU since I'm waiting for this.
​

Predictions:

DHD: 89.3%
Impa: 29.8%
Custom villager/Robin: 1.0%
​

Nomination: Still pushing DLC promotions x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

SSB4 Outsells Brawl
50% Chance
100% Want
Unlockable Taunts
0% Chance
100% Want
City Trial Stage
20% Chance
100% Want

Duck Hunt Do 49.5%
Impa 32.7%
Use Your Own Villager/Robin 4.44%

Nominating Bowser Jr x5

 

[Pacack]

SSB4 Outsells Brawl:

Chance: 77.5%
3DS.

Want: Abstain


City Trail Stage:

Chance: 7.5%
I just don't see it happening, personally.

Want: 60%
Might be cool, but I'm primarily neutral to the idea.


Unlockable Taunts:

Chance: 10%
Unlikely, but possible for sure.

Want: 90%
Would be really cool.


Predictions:
Duck Hunt Dog: 73%
Impa: 34.34%
Use Your Own Villager/Robin: 5.67%

Nominations: Endless Ocean Stage x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

SBB4 Outseling Brawl: 0%. This is an absolute joke. It'll be lucky to sell half.
Want: 50%. Indifferent.
City Trial: 5%. Don't see way we'd get one now.
Want: 0%. No.
Unlockable Taunts: Another joke?
Want: 50%. Again, indifferent.
DHD: 87.5% Expecting it to be ridiculously high.
Impa: 20.2%. Not great, but not completely terrible.
Villager/ Robin: 2.67%.

Lief X5

 

[ChazzzyF]

The 3DS version is getting GHZ back, so there'll be one stage in each version. Here's the info on the 3ds stage: http://www.ssbwiki.com/Green_Hill_Zone

I know. Currently Sonic has Green Hill Zone returning on the 3DS and Windy Hill Zone as a new stage on the Wii U.

 

[Erimir]

Ok, to be honest...

Who cares about any of these things now? With video and large image dump, the leak is real. The only question now is whether the roster we saw is the final roster.

Ratings: Abstain

Predictions:
Duck Hunt (Dog) - 85%
Impa - 38%
Use your own Villager/Robin - 8%

Nominations:
Leak related things!

Let's say... Bowser Jr x5

 

[ChazzzyF]

I'm going to abstain on SSB4 outselling Brawl, since we really can't tell. I'm also going to abstain on unlockable taunts.

City Trial Stage:

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

I doubt it, but it's possible.

5 x Bowser Jr.

 

[The Light Music Club]

SSB4 outselling Brawl:
Chance: 99.9% - Two versions? Of course
Want: 100%

City Trial Stage:
Chance: 5%
Want: 5% - I don't really care for Air Ride.

Unlockable Taunts:
Chance: 4%
Want: 90% - I think it'd be kind of cool.

Predictions
Duck Hunt Dog: 85% - I would have had this score without the leak honestly. I already thought for a while he was in.
Own Villager/Robin - 10%
Impa: 45%

Nominations:
Micaiah AT x 5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I'm not sure if this is acceptable, but can I change the "Four or more Newcomers" concept I've been nominating into a "More Newcomers Beyond the Four Leaked"?

 

[Nimbostratus]

No explanations so I can get this in on time!
Smash 4 Outsells Brawl
Chance- 20%
Want- 100%

City Trial Stage
Chance- 5%
Want- 75%

Unlockable Taunts
Chance- 5%
Want- 50%

 

[♦ Neosquid ♦]

Sm4sh outsells Brawl
50% chance
I don't know for sure...the Wii U may not be that popular, but the 3DS is to my knowledge.
100% want
obvs

City Trial Stage
10% chance
I don't really see it, probs a stage from some other Kirby game.
8% want
Never played Air Ride, would prefer some other stage.

Unlockable taunts
100% chance
you unlock characters and all characters have taunts
but really, 10% chance
it just seems really unlikely to me
32% want
I guess it would be cool, not that I care much at all

Duck Hunt Dog: 90% chance
dat video
Impa: 38% chance
Custom Villager/Robin: 20% chance

Nominations:
x5 Non Lucario/Charizard/Mewtwo Mega Evolution appearances

 

[Delzethin]

So this would-be leak throws a wrench into things. Brawler, Groose, what do you propose we do? Should RTC suspend for a day or two to let things settle down?

 

[Deleted member]

So this would-be leak throws a wrench into things. Brawler, Groose, what do you propose we do? Should RTC suspend for a day or two to let things settle down?

We're figuring out that right now.
I proposed to Groose that we rate the next two concepts and then lock down the game and have a ton of re-rates. I was thinking that we should rate the leak itself, Duck Hunt Dog, Dark Pit, Dr. Mario, the cut characters that the leak mentions, and some big names like King K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Chorus Men, Ridley, and Mewtwo for example. We might not rate Shulk and Bowser Jr. since they will most likely get 100%s in chance across the board (even SSBWiki has pages on them already).

 

[Starbound]

In my opinion, we should be rating Dark Pit, Bowser Jr., Shulk and Dr. Mario on Day 316. Even though Jr and Shulk are likely getting high scores, we still rated Palutena after her very convincing picture leaks and I don't see why we can't do the same here.

 

[Pacack]

We're figuring out that right now.
I proposed to Groose that we rate the next two concepts and then lock down the game and have a ton of re-rates. I was thinking that we should rate the leak itself, Duck Hunt Dog, Dark Pit, Dr. Mario, the cut characters that the leak mentions, and some big names like King K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Chorus Men, Ridley, and Mewtwo for example. We might not rate Shulk and Bowser Jr. since they will most likely get 100%s in chance across the board (even SSBWiki has pages on them already).

I still know many people who aren't 100% sure of the leak. Many believe that it's a brawl hack. As such, I think Shulk and Bowser Jr. are the ones we need to rate most.

 

[Groose]

http://strawpoll.me/2424845

This isn't my game, and it never has been my game. This game has always belonged to you, the community. So, it's up to you to decide its future. I'm leaving this up for a few hours, and then I'm updating according to what you want. So, feel free to go and vote.

Personally, I chose to continue on as normal for the week we have remaining. Of course, this decision is affected by my own bias, and I'm not always going to make the wisest decisions. I just feel that we're so close to the end and that the leak is so obviously real that there's no need to do something as dramatic as going into emergency ratings; I'd rather just finish out what other stuff you've worked to nominate to the top.

But what do you think?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hmm, I personally think emergency ratings should go first, then proceed as normal. Definitely don't go into pre-launch mode too early as there are some non-character things that need rating too. (ie: songs, stages, concepts)

 

[Xenigma]

I figure this is the ideal time for a cooldown day. Take a bit of time to consider the implications of this deluge of information and then decide what to do next. A bit too early to do much of anything else IMO.

(Sorry for not being around, but with the initial pics going up about a week ago now, I didn't think I could really give unbiased ratings for anyone, and that's only gotten worse with today's revelations.)

 

[Weeman]

I think we should continue as normal for at least one or two more weeks, but stream the nomination process where the ones with the least votes get eliminated, as well as not being able to nominate new concepts, just support the ones who are already high on the poll. After that, a pre-launch week would, followed by a closure day would be a good way to end it i think.

 

[jaytalks]

I think character ratings seem incredible difficult now, because it's impossible to divorce one's thoughts from the leaked info. However, I think concepts and ATs and such are a fertile ground for rating.

 

[ミスティック Speed]

Needs a cooldown to process this whole "leak" ordeal.

 

[Glaciacott]

Cool down day. From what I see people are losing their **** way too much.

Also, I don't understand why we should spend several days or paragraphs rating a bunch of characters post-leak.

The only logical things to rate are:
1) the roster that was leaked: yes or no and satisfaction/want
2) are there more characters? Yes or no and want.

It's a much more concise way of really rating everything this community wonders about, instead of rating several characters and getting redundant.

 

[Burigu]

In my opinion, we should be rating Dark Pit, Bowser Jr., Shulk and Dr. Mario on Day 316. Even though Jr and Shulk are likely getting high scores, we still rated Palutena after her very convincing picture leaks and I don't see why we can't do the same here.

To be honest I don't see the need to rate Bowser Jr and Shulk they are obviously in the game, the Palutena leaks were convincing but nothing beats actual game play.

In the end Palutena leak is false, videos on the other hand...

To me rating any character in the leak is overkilling the scores I mean we already saw Bowser Jr. and Shulk in action what are the odds that they are legit and Dark Pit, Dr. Mario and Duck Hunt Dog aren't

 

[andimidna]

MASTERLINKXX said this wasn't the Final Roster, and that the DLC in the ERSB leak was made up. There are still people who believe those videos were Brawl hacks. And people who don't put much weight into this linking to the Ninka leak. There are still unknowns to be discussed, non-believers, and a future of DLC and satisfaction.

That's all I have to say before I look at this poll. I've never wanted to rate so many characters at once. Speculation flipped and I don't want to see us stop, especially not now.

To be honest I don't see the need to rate Bowser Jr and Shulk they are obviously in the game, the Palutena leaks were convincing but nothing beats actual game play.

In the end Palutena leak is false, videos on the other hand...

To me rating any character in the leak is overkilling the scores I mean he already saw Bowser Jr. and Shulk in action what are the odds that they are legit and Dark Pit, Dr. Mario and Duck Hunt Dog aren't

I KNEW IT
The charms didn't match.
When did this happen?

Edit: I honestly see a cooldown day as a waste of a day before the Japanese 3ds release in a couple weeks. We have all seen the leaks and the videos, and we have already figured out where we stand.
What is a cooldown going to accomplish? We'll all have the same beliefs, except we'll be a day closer till everything becomes official.
But whatever, looks like it's definitely going to win.