Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

[Opossum]

Semi-Off topic, but I personally think the Ice Climber series could get a new downloadable game, Nintendo permitting. New mountains that increase in size as the difficulty progresses, customizable mountains that you can share over Wi-fi, wireless multiplayer mode with online mode, and maybe some new enemies or story.

Just an idea.

 

[Deleted member]

Semi-Off topic, but I personally think the Ice Climber series could get a new downloadable game, Nintendo permitting. New mountains that increase in size as the difficulty progresses, customizable mountains that you can share over Wi-fi, wireless multiplayer mode with online mode, and maybe some new enemies or story.

Just an idea.

I'd buy it... if it appears on the Wii-U.

75 minutes left.

 

[Deleted member]

Another day, another character, and for the first time, a Melee veteran.

After a very cold day which none of the fans prepared for, the only victor of the day was, of course, the Ice Climbers duo. They climbed to the top of the mountain they created with their Final Smash with a 4.98 in likelihood and a 4.58 in want. As they jumped around excited at accomplishing yet another goal, Opossum had hit a bulls eye mark. He had guessed the score of 4.98 and he couldn't be more right if he tried. Everything was marked down to the exact score. He made his shot and it ranged around the world like thunder. Despite falling down to the stadium's ground and hitting the hard ice floor, he stood up firmly as the crowd cheered his accomplishment. His reputation had gained him an extra ten nominations.

After the prolonged Final Smash was over, the Ice Climbers left the stadium happy to receive such an exceptional score. The green beauty returned and was in it's most beautiful state yet. With it's beauty came one of the most famous characters not in Smash yet; Toad.

Toad optimistically ran to the stadium; somewhat nervous, but was very hopeful for a bright future. It was like everyone knew him; if you played video games, you knew who he was. That was how iconic he was. Anyway, he was yet another Mario newcomer, but one that turned up the storm in speculation. People loved him, but would he be deemed worthy of a spot by Sakurai?

Day Twenty-Seven has began! Today Toad is being rated with Saki Amamiya being up for tomorrow. Day ends sometimes after 11 PM CST tomorrow.

I will give Toad a 4.5 in want, a 3 in likelihood, and predict that Saki gets a 2.75 in likelihood. Explanation later.

Nominate Ghirahim, Mach Rider, Mii, Lucario, and Paper Mario.

 

[Bdblazen]

Toad is my most expected Mario newcomer. He really needs to get in. He is very iconic to the Mario francise and he would be able to rep the main Mario series, and the spinoffs also. I believe that this will help SSB get more sales because it will attract more customers. Mostly those who are fans of the Mario spin offs and probably don't buy SSB because they may not be too familiar with Nintendo's francises or because their not fans of fighting games.

By seeing Toad as playable, people may just give it a shot because he may be their fav character in the spin offs, and anyone who plays the main Mario series knows him well also. I know people who get quite disappointed when Toad doesn't make a playable appearance in games like M and S at the Olimpic games. And it decreases their chances of buying the game. Seeing an iconic character like Toad will catch people's eyes and help SSB a lot. Plus Sakurai can give him a totally unique move set, but I won't go into all of that lol.

Want:5
Likelihood:3.25

Idk who Saki is so I can't really comment on him.

Predictions: Mii x(5)

 

[Deleted member]

Toad:

Want: 2.5
I don't really care for him, but I don't NOT want him either. I'd rather have Waluigi, though.

Likelihood: 2.5
As I said during Bowser Jr.'s day, it's unknown whether or not Mario will even get a Newcomer, and it's unknown who it will be.
However, Toad is one of three major candidates.

 

[SmashShadow]

Toad:
likelihood:2.55
want:1
There is way too much competition for me to put much faith in him getting. Even if it is confirmed that we get a new mario rep he is still only a possibility and not even close to a sure deal.

Saki: 3.14
He's got a good chance as far as retro characters go and was an assist trophy so he is at least somewhat though of.

noms: skull kid x5

 

[DMurr]

Want: 1
Likeliness: 2.75

I'm going to have to agree with everyone that Mario characters are a toss-up. No one even knows if they'll get a newcomer, so it's possible all candidates could get skipped. Toad is fairly iconic though. I'd rather see Bowser Jr., or Waluigi.

Nominate Lyndis x5.

 

[Opossum]

As they jumped around excited at accomplishing yet another goal, Opossum had hit a bulls eye mark. He had guessed the score of 4.98 and he couldn't be more right if he tried. Everything was marked down to the exact score. He made his shot and it ranged around the world like thunder. Despite falling down to the stadium's ground and hitting the hard ice floor, he stood up firmly as the crowd cheered his accomplishment. His reputation had gained him an extra ten nominations.

So even when I win with perfect accuracy I still slip?


Okay, time to be serious. Toad.

Want: 5

I fully support Toad.

Likelihood: 3.1

Now, let me explain. As others have said, both now and on Bowser Jr.'s day, a Mario newcomer spot itself isn't even guaranteed. The series is pretty "complete" as it is, with the hero, villain, damsel in distress, and the other guy. ()

However, if Sakurai wishes to expand, I feel Toad has the best shot. He's the only other major character from the original Super Mario Bros. to not be in as playable. He has potential for a nice moveset surrounding Spores and various mushrooms, and isn't a weakling, despite common belief. Apparently he has superhuman strength. Not to mention that in Japan, he was ranked the 8th Most Recognizable Video Game Character. This poll was from four years ago, but I feel it's worth a mention.

I predict Saki gets a 2.9.

Nominating x10 Krom


EDIT: SSBF! Y U No put up Mega Man/Ice Climbers Flavor Text?!? (Someone had to say it. )

 

[BlueberrySyrup]

You worry too much. Sakurai would have to be ******** to cut Lucas considering how liked he is.

I don't really see many Lucas mains, don't see him as very liked but it might be because he's not that good. I personally love him and his game.

Toad
Want - 2 - Don't really like him that much, I do but I'd rather have another in smash.
Likelyhood - 2 - I see Sakurai adding others before him honestly.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Toad gets a likelihood of 3 from me. While Toad does have to compete against Bowser Jr., his species has shown to be pretty athletic.

Nominations
1: Black Shadow (x3)
2: Rosalina (x2)

 

[Robert of Normandy]

I feel the exact same way about Toad as I do about every other potential Mario newcomer.

Want: 1
We don't need any new Mario characters. Sakurai should focus on adding characters for under represented series or series that aren't repped at all. If we were to get one, I'd rather we got someone from Paper Mario or one of the Mario & Luigi games.

Likelihood: 2
Even if we did get another Mario slot, Toad would face steep competition. He would have to compete with Waluigi, Bowser Jr., and possibly characters from spinoffs like the Yoshi series and Wario Land/Ware games. He was also probably the first "hated" Mario characters due to his (infamous) role in the first SMB. So I don't think he's terribly likely.

Prediction for Saki: 3.51

Nominations:
Mike Jones x5

 

[Ghirahilda]

Want: 2.3 - Never cared about him, also I would prefer to reserve a chance for others mario chacacters for Smash. Still, he can be great.

Likelihood: 2.37
Almost same as everyone's talking: he needs to compete with Bowser Jr, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Daisy and even Geno for a spot.

Super Smash Bros. Fan, can I nominate a unnamed chacacter? I mean, I want to nominate the Pikmin 3 blue haired captain, still he has no name, but look:

Under him the letter is "A", so it's better to call him Captain A , Blue Haired Captain,

Or is better to wait Pikmin 3's launch (or information about the chacacters) before nominating him?

 

[BKupa666]

Want: 0.5
Likelihood: 1

Toad brings far less to the table than Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, or even Waluigi...look at any given moveset for him and you'll see pretty much the same thing: a Propeller Mushroom boost, a bomb toss and Wario's Bike in Mario Kart form. When the addition of a Mario newcomer is so questionable to begin with, I would think that whoever gets the nod would at least be more unique than "small but strong." In addition, he definitely won't be thrown in for many of the reasons his advocators suggest, primarily "he'd complete the Big Eight" or "he'd complete the SMB2 four" or whatever. Also, in my opinion, if Sakurai is as hesitant as he is to make an Animal Crosser playable, he can't be jumping to include Toad, as the characters are generally both equally -traditionally- (read: not always) nonviolent.

I also feel as though Toad's fanbase is vastly overstated; people going around claiming that "Toad has the most support of Mario newcomers" seemed to be absent during pre-Brawl, when his name was hardly ever mentioned for a newcomer slot, if at all (Geno and Bowser Jr. had the honors then). Though he has shown up on a handful of Japanese polls, I recall ChronoBound said something awhile back about how "Toad has fans in Japan, but it doesn't translate to Smash popularity" (he also said something about Ridley being popular, but people not wanting him playable). At this point, I could only really see Toad brought in if the sheer number of games he exists in is taken into consideration, since it probably outnumbers those of all other Mario potential newcomers put together (and his race has also been players three and four in the best-selling New Mario titles due to their body shape, to the dismay of fans who want playable Peach/Wario/Waluigi).

Color me unimpressed with Toad's chances, though the one argument that -definitely- doesn't impact them in any way whatsoever is there being -the- Toad vs. the Toad race. Anyone using that to demean the character is definitely grasping at straws, and flimsy straws at that.

Prediction for Saki: 3.65
Nominate: Dixie x3, Groose and King Boo x1

 

[kisamefishfries]

toad want 3
likelihood 1.2

I don't see it

nominations: paper mario x5

saki prediction : 1.78

 

[---]

Want: 0
Likeliness: 2.25

Also Speaking for Oasis, Toad's boring. As for my reason as to his score, he's the most likely Mario newcomer next to Jr., but like all the Mario newcomers I believe in the high bar theory.

x5 Krom

 

[Arcadenik]

It is finally Toad's day.

Want = 5
Likelihood = 4

We are overdue for a new Mario character. If Sakurai thought it was fine to have five Mario characters in Melee and he planned to keep it at five in Brawl, even if it meant keeping Dr. Mario (but that's only because he is a last minute filler clone), I think Sakurai would also be fine with possibly having five Mario characters SSB4. At least Toad would be a bit more unique than Dr. Mario and he wouldn't be a last mintue addition. The bottom line - it is fine to have at least one more Mario character and I think Toad is it.

The Toad species finally rose to prominence in New Super Mario Bros. Wii and it's staying that way in the upcoming New Super Mario Bros. U. Toad in Smash can have the Toad's colors (red and blue) plus the generic Toads' colors (blue, yellow, etc.) - this is why I don't think the generic argument doesn't float. Also, Toad is one of the eight most famous Mario characters and the other seven are already in Smash. It makes sense that Toad should be up there with the rest on the roster.

Yes, Sakurai did mention how peaceful the Toads are in Toad's Brawl trophy but that was before the New Super Mario Bros. games. Sakurai cannot apply the "he is too peaceful" argument on Toad like he does with the Animal Crossing characters. Toad(s) have shown that they can fight alongside Mario and Luigi just like Peach had demonstrated in Super Mario RPG. He also acknowledged Toad's superhuman strength and agility in Toad's Melee and Brawl trophies and it will be a little hard to not acknowledge Toad's newfound abilities from New Super Mario Bros. Wiii/U such as Propeller Mushroom (for recovery), Ice Flower (for freezing enemies), Acorn Mushroom (for gliding) in addition to his classic abilities such as picking up enemies and throwing vegetables/bombs. If Sakurai wanted to get a little bit more creative, he could incorporate mushroom-themed moves for Toad such as Poison Mushroom (to shrink/poison enemies) and Golden Mushroom (speed boost). There are so many possiblities Sakurai could go with Toad.

Nominations = Duck Hunt Dog, Tingle, Meowth, King Hippo, Medusa

 

[Deleted member]

Toad

If I were to add another slot to my prediction roster, Toad would be next in line. I would say that in the competition for the possible fifth Mario slot, the one I would consider to be the most likely is Toad.

There's two important factors people should take into consideration here. One is that Toad is a very important part of the series. He is so integrated into it that removing them from a mainstream game would cause a massive backlash and rightly so. When people think of the Mario series, one thing that comes up very quickly is the Toads themselves; heck Shigeru Miyamoto remembered them pretty easily as one of his favorite characters.

Another is that Toad is incredibly popular; as a matter of fact, almost as much so as Mario, Luigi, Peach, and Bowser. There are quite a few polls supporters can pull that shows Toad's popularity, as well as that Japanese poll which had him as the 8th most popular Japanese character. Not to mention he is highly requested for playable status (in the West at least) just like other potential Mario newcomer.

One big obstacle Toad will have to deal with is that Sakurai sees them as peaceful characters, which is something to note. Whenever or not Sakurai will change his mind remains to be seen, but I feel this factor will be one of the biggest deciding factor in regards to whenever or not he gets in.

Still, though, no one can deny Toad's importance to the series and how well integrated he is into it. The "high bar" theory of course applies to all potential Mario newcomers (and I would argue Pokemon and Zelda newcomers as well), but if only one of them could meet it (if any), it would be Toad.

Likelihood score remains a 3.

@shinpichu: Toad is not "hated". People for the most part love him.

 

[deuxhero]

Toad:
Likely: 3: A good chance if there is another Mario rep, but he is dependent on if there is another main series Mario rep, and he is not very consistent in his spin-off appearences.
Want: 2: Eh

Nominate Yoshimitsu x5

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

(I've been away for some time, which is why I didn't participate in previous days(not that anyone cared, though.))
Anyways, Toad:
Want- 3.9
Likelihood- 2.5

Even though Toad is tecnicaly next in the line for Mario newcomers when it comes to importance, I highly doubt he will be it; because Sakurai sees the Toad and his species as peaceful people, which severely puts down his chances.

Prediction for Saki- 2 (BTW, SSBF, you misspelled my name as 'Jhonnykiller42' in Megaman's day(not that it matters anymore))

Nominations(Using my extra noms' from Krystal's day)
Black Shadow x4
Snake x3
Ganondorf x2
Mach Rider

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Toad

Toad can be said to be one of the most suitable and well-deserving of a newcomer to be in Smash of all Mario-reps. He would be original with his speed yet strong-playstyle, has a lots of unique moves from his games like grabbing, bomb handling, scattering spores to grow mushroom. And I didn't mention anything about NSMBW or Mario-spinoffs to just beef how good he really could be.

He's immensively popular in both Japan and West, and has lots of revelance to Super Mario Bros-series overall. Toad simply can't be missed now as he was for the last two Smash Bros-games. He has some competition but he outruns them quite long notch with all the factors said above, really. Only Bowser Jr gets pretty close as Toad: Geno would be still difficult to acguire rights to use on Smash (and I'm still questioning his HUGE popularity...) and Waluigi, while quite unique he could be, doesn't just really deserve to be a Nintendo All Star because of his overall character and purpose in the games he has appeared so far. (being a duo character for Wario and staying ONLY in spinoffs. Sheesh.)

I am especially been waiting for this guy to show up and believe he'd be very fun to main and would make me enthutiastic to master. Now I just hope he'll make it this time.
Sakurai now could just start to take more look into Toad and maybe start to get over the mentality of him being just a meatshield to Peach's attackers.

Likelyhood: 3.7
Want: 5

Predicting Saki to get 3.78

Noms:

Lip x5

 

[N3ON]

Want: 2.5
He's not my most wanted Mario character, but I would be fine getting any of the four-most requested, so he gets a 50/50 from me.

Likelihood: 2.9
He's inarguably the most important Mario character still unplayable, and he does seem to have pretty good overall popularity, but so far it seems as if he's being interpreted as a "non-fighter". Not to say this couldn't change, but honestly not many people are clamoring for Toad to be playable, either because they don't want him or they don't think he could be a fighter, both in Japan and in the west. Of course, it all comes down to Sakurai's opinions on him, but even without taking those into account (as so far we've only seen Toad in supporting non-combat roles in Smash), Toad faces some stiff competition from more requested and more popular Mario characters.

I will admit that already being Peach's B is a terrible reason for him not being able to be playable. He could be replaced by literally any other Toad, preferably Toadsworth. And it's not like those who've made non-playable appearances on the battlefield will forever be relegated to that role.

Nomz:
x3 Skull Kid
x2 Lucario

 

[Propeller Toad]

Toad:

Want: 5

- I definitely give my full support for Toad's chances of being playable.

Likelihood: 3.8

-In comparison to the other candidates for the Mario series newcomer, Toad stands a decent shot considering that he has a lot of things going for him: being iconic, a long standing major Mario character, a recognizable Nintendo character, and strong popularity. Not to mention that he has been playable in countless spin-off Mario games and several mainstream Mario platformers (thus, making Toad the only playable character from the Mario platformers to not be playable in Smash as of yet). Of course, this doesn't mean that Toad is a "shoe-in" for SSB4; however, he stands a good shot that many people tend to overlook.

There is the the part where Sakurai might think that the Toads are a peaceful race; however, one cannot forget that Sakurai also mentioned Toad's superhuman strength in his trophies as well. Also why mention Toad being "too peaceful" when Princess Peach is just as or even more peaceful than Toad has in the most recent games? She's just been the damsel in distress for the most recent Mario games while even Toad has taken a more active role in the story.

Also Toad's "resume" for this Smash Bros. is a lot more better than the pre-brawl days considering his increased playable roles recently as well as his status in the NSMB Wii games (in the past it was just SMB2 and WW). With NSMBU coming out, that's bound to help Toad's popularity and chances even more.

While he was a standard special move for Peach in the past, there's no saying that it cannot be replaced with another move (as moves have in the past) like her parasol (eg SPP Charged shot) or even Toadsworth (who would arguably make more sense as Peach's accomplice). Toad has more than enough moveset potential to be unique and heck with what's he's done, he's sure to get something unique if characters such as Peach, Zelda, Captain Falcon, and the like were able to get such unique movesets.

Prediction for Saki - 2.7

Nominations:

Lip x3
Mach Rider x 2

 

[Deleted member]

Yes, Captain A can be nominated since it exist.

...just answering someone's question.

 

[Ghirahilda]

Yes, Captain A can be nominated since it exist.

...just answering someone's question.

Thanks. so I will nominate Captain A x5 today...

To people that don't known , Captain A is the unnoficial name I gave to the blue haired captain from Pikmin 3 because of this:

under him the letter is "A"

 

[Claire Diviner]

Toad... gee whiz, where to start...

Want: 2.5 - I really have no interest in Toad. It's not that I don't want him in, but it isn't like I do at the same time. I am truly indifferent about him.

Likelihood: 2.5 - I'm really iffy about his likelihood. He most certainly is a popular character in the Mario series, and he's very often a playable character in Mario spin-offs, with the only main series playable appearance being Super Mario Bros. 2. There is one detail that could potentially hold him back; Peach's Standard B. It could be argued that the Toad Peach uses isn't THE Toad, and is just a generic Mushroom Kingdom citizen Toad. Because this is Smash 4 we're talking about, it would stand to reason that this argument would be valid if they give the playable Toad more detail in character design, differentiating him from the one Peach uses. Of course, they can also fix this little issue by replacing Toad with Toadsworth for Peach's Standard B, or by giving Peach a new Standard B altogether.

That said, I can see Toad as a playable character, but seeing as he made no playable appearance in any of the Smash Bros. games, and appearing solely as a meat shield for Peach in Melee and Brawl, I really have no idea how likely or unlikely it will be for Sakurai to want to add Toad in playable form. For this reason, I give a completely even 2.5 for both my want (mostly because of my indifference) and likelihood.

 

[Sqid]

Toad:
Want: 0.5
I don't like him, and if the other Mario characters I support (Waluigi, Paper Mario) don't get in, I'd rather have nobody than Toad. But, not a 0 because I always welcome more characters (to a certain extent!).
Likelihood: 3.4
He's definitely possible and has a fanbase, and he was playable recently, but I don't see him having an interesting moveset. They might just put him it to "complete the set" (Mario, Luigi, Peach, Toad).
Prediction for Saki: 2.97
Nominations: 5x Krom! Almost there!

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Toad is one of the three Mario characters I'd like to see/support. The other two being Bowser Jr., and Rosalina. Toad has a decent chance due to his recent surge in popularity in both the Smash social circle and in the Mario series. He has been featured as a playable character since Super Mario Bros. 2 and has been in most games since then. Additionally, he has been a fan favorite in spin off games such as Mario Kart, Mario Strikers, and Mario Party (he was my bro in Mario Kart 64 "I'm the best!").

However, recently Toad has experienced an idenity crisis. Toad is no longer a individual and has become a race with the Mario universe. The days of Toad being a separate idenity has been shattered with different colored Toads. Not to bring racial colors into the argument but, IMO, Toad had a white head with red spots.

Additionally, he has to deal with other likely characters such as Bowser Jr., Waluigi, Rosalina, Paper Mario, and even the Doc. However, he has one of the better chances (slightly below Bowser Jr, IMO) of them all.

Also don't let the fact he is one of Peach's special moves. That can be easily replaced with a different move.

I like Toad and while I support Bowser Jr. as the new Mario rep, I wouldn't be that butthurt to see that mushroom head in Smash 4.

Want: 3.25
Likeliness: 3.10

Saki's Prediction: 3.68

Nominations. *･゜ﾟ･*:.｡..｡.:*･'(*ﾟ▽ﾟ*)'･*:.｡. .｡.:*･゜ﾟ･*

Andy x3
Mii x1
Skull Kid x1

 

[shrooby]

Want: 5.0
Never really understood all of the Toad hate. Maybe because I never played Super Mario Bros without knowing that Toad was at the end of almost every castle. Anyway, my want for Toad is comparable to how I feel about Ridley: I don't particularly care for the character all that much, but I feel that he's important enough to considered a "Nintendo All-Star" and should be included. Even though I prefer Bowser Jr. and Waluigi in pretty much every way, I want Toad playable before them for this reason.
With (a) Toad's appearance in NSMB Wii, which was extremely popular, as well as the soon to be released NSMB-U, which will probably get a good degree of popularity as well, I think Toad's chances are higher than ever before. However, whether or not Mario willl get another rep is somewhat questionable. If it does, then Toad really only has competition from Bowser Jr in my opinion (sorry guys. Not that I don't like the characters). *sigh* Wish we could just get both of them. Not that likely though. Likeliness: 3.0

Prediction: 3.57

Nominations: Ganondorf x5

 

[MelMoe]

Nominations

ROB x5

Voting & Discussing

Toad

Personal Bias: 2.88
Likelihood: 2.76

I wouldn't mind Toad at all, but I like Bowser Jr. a bit more. However I think that Toad deserves it more.

Toad has been around forever, he is definitely worthy. I just don't like the the idea of a Mario Sports-related moveset.

Prediction

Saki: 2.34

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Toad Liklihood 3
Want 3

He's a popular Mario character, but there are A LOT of Mario characters

...and Geno, of course is "competition"

Nominate: Skull Kid x5

Saki: 2.5

 

[Deleted member]

The sides the audience picked proved the intensity of both the detractors and the supporters. The supporters were dedicated towards Toad's inclusion until the very end and the detractors wanted nothing more than Toad to remain Peach's B move.

Right now, that question could not be answered, but it seems as people were a little more hopeful for Toad this time around, although still a very mixed bag. Toad's likelihood was a 2.74 in likelihood, slightly below his competitor Bowser Jr, but he slightly outdid Junior in this apartment, scoring a 2.85 in want. MelMoe watched as he was awared five more nominations; a title he had not earned for awhile.

Toad left in a meh, but still hopeful mood. The battle had just begun for a fifth possible Mario rep and his supporters would never give up on him.

Meanwhile, Saki Amamiya came rushing in on his latest mission. He saw a crowd with all sets of emotion. Some of them were glad to see him and some wanted him dead. Whatever the case was, he was locked in for a day with no ways of getting out. He began searching for a way out regardless, unknown of why he was here.

Toad get a 2.74 in likelihood and a 2.85 in want. MelMoe wins five extra nominations. Opossum still have five extra nominations left.

Day Twenty-Eight has began! Saki Amamiya is up for ratings today. Tomorrow's candidate is Krom, who's likelihood score is being predicted today. Day ends at 12:30 AM CST.

@Opossum: Yeah, totally forgot. Will do later today (after I get some sleep)

Saki Amamiya is getting a 5 in want and a 3.7 in likelihood for now. Will explain in the morning.

Also predicting that Krom's score is massively overrated at 3.61.

 

[DMurr]

Sakurai acknowledged that there were requests for Saki on his assist trophy page on the website, but he says he did "what he could to include him." So he sees that as the best he can do, seemingly. If he doesn't think he's worthy of being playable, what will change that now? I guess it has been a while. It seems like he still likes Saki.

Want: 4
Likeliness: 3.05

I nominate Lyndis x5.

 

[Deleted member]

Saki:
Want: 4
Despite not playing his game, the fact he's got a blaster that turns into an energy sword and can turn into a giant monster thing makes him interesting to me.

Likelihood: 4
I'm willing to bet that Sakurai will do whatever he can to have him playable this time around, as it seemed that Sakurai did what he could to include Saki somehow in Brawl, and talked as though he was a missed opportunity. With statements such as him "having no problem fitting in" and him "rivaling other main characters", I can see Sakurai taking the next step.
Only competition is Isa, and I can picture Isa being picked instead given that he has more to offer with actually doing hand to hand combat in a boss fight in his game, as well as having that jetpack, but what Sakurai said about Saki cannot be ignored.

 

[---]

Want: 5
Likeliness: 3.75

Would normally give him a 4, but since Star's on a temp leave. As for likeliness, feeling kinda lazy so I'll steal another Toise quote:

*** Saki ***

Anyone else notice Sakurai's obsession with arcade shooters?

Kirby's Dream Land - Kabula Fight
Kirby's Adventure - Nightmare Fight
Kirby Super Star - Heart of Nova
Super Smash Bros. Melee - Credits
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - Roll Call
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - Coin Launcher
Kid Icarus: Uprising - Flight Gameplay

Not to mention all the Star Fox love (Kid Icarus Uprising) and endorsing Sin & Punishment on the Dojo. My money says this is relevant, even if S&P2 bombed hard.

 

[Oasis_S]

Yes.

 

[SmashShadow]

Want: 4.8 IMO it seems like he has a lot of potential even just from seeing the assist trophy. Plus he's be the only character with a sword and gun.

Likelihood: 3.52
As far as retro characters go he is among the top group and has a fairly good chance of getting in.

Keep forgeting my noms: x5 skull kid

 

[N3ON]

^^^Saki isn't a retro character, and S&P won't be a retro series for a long time.

Want: 3
I don't know what it is about him, he's cool looking, I liked his game, and he would be a fighter different than anything we have so far, yet I don't find myself particularly excited for his inclusion. I'm not against it or anything, I guess I would just prefer others.

Likelihood: 3.4
While S&P is a very fun series, it really doesn't have much popularity or mass recognition compared to other currently unrepresented series. Plus, as unique and interesting as he would be, Saki doesn't really have enough popularity or demand (especially outside of Japan) to stand out much from the other candidates. The popularity he has gained from his appearance in Brawl has helped, sure, but he still would be a very unlikely character if it weren't for Sakurai's bias. Really one of the only good points in his favor that boosts his chances is that Sakurai seems to be quite the fan of him and his games, and might prioritize him above the inclusion of other characters for this reason. However, we do not know if Sakurai will act on this bias yet, he has a history of both avoiding or over-representing his biases, and it's very possible that just because he wants a character, doesn't mean that that character should be included over others.

Nomz:
x5 Skull Kid

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I put Saki's likelihood at 3.5. Considering the way Sakurai described Saki for Brawl, it only seems fitting if he truly does get the playable position this time. After all, the Sin & Punishment series has made its presence known to North America.

Nominations
1: Ray Mk III (x2)
2: Black Shadow (x2)
3: Rosalina

 

[BKupa666]

Want: 2
Likelihood: 3

Pretty much the same rating I'd give any new series rep, since the slots are competitive and all of them would bring about as much to the table. I do buy into Sakurai possibly having bias toward the guy, though since rail-shooting doesn't really translate into a moveset aside from projectilespam, it might not matter all that much, unless it is merely Saki's existence that Sakurai finds "pretty cool." Another middle-of-the-road weapon-wielder, at the end of the day, though, like with Isaac and Matthew, he'll be the playable rep for his series if it gets the nod, rather than Isa Jo, no sweat.

Also, despite his realistic appearance in Brawl, please don't argue that he was considered to be playable there, unless you're also considering equally realistic Waluigi and Gray Fox in the same breath.

Predicting Krom will receive 3.85

Nominate Dixie, King Hippo x2, Groose x1.

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Saki!
Want: 5
I looooooooooooove basically everything Treasure makes(even though I suck at them), and S&P is no exception. I would go nuts if Saki were playable.
Likelihood: 3.5
I don't really know how popular he is, but I think he has a decent shot. Being an assist trophy definitely helped give him more recognition.

Prediction for Krom: 3.5

Nominations:
Waluigi x5