Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

[Opossum]

I am a sucker for a nice musical number, anyway.

 

[---]

Want: 2.5
Likeliness: 0

x5 Saki

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Ugh, I had this nice post all typed up and almost finished, and then Firefox went nuts and went back a page. Ugh.

Want: 3.5
Played JMF. Cool game, Sukapon's not my favorite character(that would be Flare or whatever his name is), but Sukapon's the main character, so he should be the rep.
Likelihood: 1
JMF's really obscure and Sakurai has said not to expect Sukapon, so yeah.

Prediction for Bowser Jr.: 2.3

Nominations:
x5 Megaman

 

[Sqid]

Want: 0. Meh.
Likelihood: 0. Sakurai said no.
Prediction for Bowser Jr.: 3.41
Nominations: Mega Man x5

 

[BKupa666]

Want: 3
Likelihood: 0.75

He has all the likelihood of a regular retro shock character from a minor new series, with the exception of Sakurai having turned him down once. Whether or not he has changed his mind since Melee, who knows...but he faces a ton of competition regardless, so I will take Sakurai's advice and "not expect him."

Nominating Dixie Kong x3, Groose x2.

Predicting: 3.33 for Bowser Jr.

 

[SmashShadow]

sukapon want 0 ...yeah i don't like him much
likelihood 0.41 ...Sakurai saying not to expect him but there are still a hopeful bunch out there.

Bowser Jr prediction: 3.27

Nominating: Ray MK x5

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Sukapon's likelihood is pretty much a mere 1 on my end. For all I know, it sounds like Sakurai doesn't care for Sukapon very much, so it's pretty doubtful that he'll make the cut any time soon.

Nominations
1: Dixie Kong
2: Ray Mk III
3: Rosalina
4: Black Shadow
5: Saki

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

I have never been too interested in Sukapon; both pre-Brawl and now. I do recognize his importance as a character in one of Nintendo's first fighting games but I have never been too interested in his design and playability. Also, Sakurai has stated before that Sukapon would not be added and doesn't seem too interested int he character. Additionally, I feel there are better retro characters that could use a revival such as Mach Rider, Lip, Takamaru, and Prince Sable.

Want: .98
Likeliness: .45

Bowser Jr.'s Prediction: 3.64

Nominations:

Andy x3
M. Bison x2

 

[DakotaBonez]

Sukapon, his character design is so lazy, especially when compared to every other robot in his game. It seemed like the least amount of effort was put into his animations.

Want: 0

He's just not popular enough to stand a chance of getting in.

Likelihood 0.1

NOMINATING Ganondorf x5

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Sukapon's likelihood is pretty much a mere 1 on my end. For all I know, it sounds like Sakurai doesn't care for Sukapon very much, so it's pretty doubtful that he'll make the cut any time soon.

Nominations
1: Dixie Kong
2: Ray Mk III
3: Rosalina
4: Black Shadow
5: Saki

As far as I can see, Sakurai DOES like Sukapon

Want: 5, Likelihood: 2

Sukapon WAS a considered character for Melee and at least got represented in some form in Brawl. He'd make an awesome retro, especially because all of them so far have been out of nowhere (All the retros people expect NEVER are the ones that get in). And he'd make an awesome character.

Dakota bones doesn't know what he's taking about. Sukapon's design was brilliant. It's simplistic design allowed Joy Mech Fight to have the largest roster of fighters for MANY years, even more than many super Nintendo games.

Nominate Mike Jones x5

 

[lobotheduck21]

gotta song for ya ssbf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDZ5lgINouQ&feature=autoplay&list=ULd2tdSiQAF20&playnext=1

 

[Deleted member]

Sukapon:

Want: 2.5
Don't really care either way.
Likelihood: 0
Sorry to say, but Sakurai already denied him for being an obscure one-shot Japan only character and said to "not expect him in the future".

 

[jigglover]

Psycho's on his own here, he's pushed Sukapon out of a racoon mario Tom Nook status, unless some more people give him 0's than me or SSBF!
Anyway, to remind you it's a 0 want, 0 likelihood for me, and everything has pretty much been said. I'd like to say though, that if he does getting in, he'll be smash 4's Pichu if you look at this quote from the nintendo wiki:
Sukapon is the most basic robot playable in Joy Mech Fight, and therefore has the most basic attacks. While not weak, he is not powerful in any regards, and is mostly played by newcomers and players looking for a challenge.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Psycho's on his own here, he's pushed Sukapon out of a racoon mario Tom Nook status, unless some more people give him 0's than me or SSBF!
Anyway, to remind you it's a 0 want, 0 likelihood for me, and everything has pretty much been said. I'd like to say though, that if he does getting in, he'll be smash 4's Pichu if you look at this quote from the nintendo wiki:
Sukapon is the most basic robot playable in Joy Mech Fight, and therefore has the most basic attacks. While not weak, he is not powerful in any regards, and is mostly played by newcomers and players looking for a challenge.

That just means he's the "Mario" of the game. The well rounded fighter.

That's hardly Pichu status

If you played the game, his special attack pretty much rocks

 

[jigglover]

That just means he's the "Mario" of the game. The well rounded fighter.

That's hardly Pichu status

If you played the game, his special attack pretty much rocks

So Mario is played by players looking for a challenge? Because he's my second main with Yoshi in first. People play Pichu when looking for a challenge, people play Sukapon when looking for a challenge.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

So Mario is played by players looking for a challenge? Because he's my second main with Yoshi in first. People play Pichu when looking for a challenge, people play Sukapon when looking for a challenge.

If you ever played the game he is not a weak character.

He's just a basic character.

Newcomer's also wouldn't play Pichu

 

[N3ON]

Just because he isn't the strongest character in the game, doesn't mean he is weak, like the description says. He just doesn't have any attacks or qualities that make him stand out competitively when compared to some of the later-fought characters in that game, IIRC. Like Psycho said, he is a well-balanced character, that's what the description means.

The players looking for a challenge part would be comparable to playing as someone like a middle stage Pokemon, they aren't the strongest, but they aren't weak either, and usually only players looking for a challenge would choose to play as one over a fully evolved Pokemon. I'm tired, so that's the best comparison I can come up with.

 

[jigglover]

If you ever played the game he is not a weak character.

He's just a basic character.

Newcomer's also wouldn't play Pichu

He isn't weak, but he isn't strong, so is therefore weak compared to the strong characters. How about brawl Bowser, he's played by newcomers who like the mario series, and while technically he's very strong, all things considered he's weak. (I apologize to any Bowser mains, he does have things going for him (like Sukapon) but not as many as other characters (like Sukapon)).

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

He isn't weak, but he isn't strong, so is therefore weak compared to the strong characters. How about brawl Bowser, he's played by newcomers who like the mario series, and while technically he's very strong, all things considered he's weak. (I apologize to any Bowser mains, he does have things going for him (like Sukapon) but not as many as other characters (like Sukapon)).

Mario isn't top tier. Doesn't mean he is low tier

except in brawl, where he's actually pretty low. I'm going with melee mario here

 

[N3ON]

@jigglover
Characters aren't compared to only those stronger than they are to determine if they are weak, they are compared to all the characters. Just because Meta-Knight is "stronger" than Snake, doesn't mean Snake is a weak character.

 

[jigglover]

@jigglover
Characters aren't compared to only those stronger than they are to determine if they are weak, they are compared to all the characters. Just because Meta-Knight is "stronger" than Snake, doesn't mean Snake is a weak character.

No, because Snake is stronger than Pikachu, Pikachu's stronger than Lucario and so forth, where they are on a tier list is pretty much just if x is stronger than y, and y stronger than z, and Sukapon would be lower because x and y are stronger than him.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

In certain aspects

He's faster than the strongest character, and stronger than the fastest character

But he isn't faster than the fastest character and stronger than the strongest character

He's got a ranged attack, which not all fighters in the game get. But his isn't the best ranged attack.

He's got everything, just not the best of everything

He's not the strongest, or weakest. He's the Mario of Joy Mech Fight

 

[N3ON]

No, because Snake is stronger than Pikachu, Pikachu's stronger than Lucario and so forth, where they are on a tier list is pretty much just if x is stronger than y, and y stronger than z, and Sukapon would be lower because x and y are stronger than him.

Yes, but characters aren't classified as "weak" or "strong" based on how they compare to one single character, they are classified due to how they compare on average against all the characters. It's true that there's an overall order to characters in a tier list, and some are better than others, but just because x character is weak against y character, doesn't mean x character is a weak character in general.

Plus, you can't predict where a character will end up on the tier list before they are included. In Joy Mech Fight, sure, he's not on the top of the tier list (if they even have one), but that doesn't mean he's weak. Like Psycho keeps saying, he is the basic balanced character of that game, the one that doesn't have any clear strengths or weaknesses.

 

[jigglover]

Yes, but characters aren't classified as "weak" or "strong" based on how they compare to one single character, they are classified due to how they compare on average against all the characters. It's true that there's an overall order to characters in a tier list, and some are better than others, but just because x character is weak against y character, doesn't mean x character is a weak character in general.

Plus, you can't predict where a character will end up on the tier list before they are included. In Joy Mech Fight, sure, he's not on the top of the tier list (if they even have one), but that doesn't mean he's weak. Like Psycho keeps saying, he is the basic balanced character of that game, the one that doesn't have any clear strengths or weaknesses.

That's kind of what I said. Overall, lets have Pikachu as an example, he is weaker than Marth, which puts him lower, but then stronger than Wario, and since Wario is stronger than ZSS, and ZSS stronger than Lucario and it carries on like that, then Pikachu is in the middle of Marth and Wario. As a whole, Pikachu is stronger than the characters that Wario is not, so Pikachu relies on Wario and Marth for him to stay high, and he needs to stay stronger than Wario since Wario is strong.

 

[N3ON]

That's kind of what I said. Overall, lets have Pikachu as an example, he is weaker than Marth, which puts him lower, but then stronger than Wario, and since Wario is stronger than ZSS, and ZSS stronger than Lucario and it carries on like that, then Pikachu is in the middle of Marth and Wario. As a whole, Pikachu is stronger than the characters that Wario is not, so Pikachu relies on Wario and Marth for him to stay high, and he needs to stay stronger than Wario since Wario is strong.

That's an odd way to think about it, and it's kind of obvious that the characters rely on each other to maintain the overall tier list, but I suppose you're right, though I think you're making it a bit complicated.

Like I said above though, characters don't just rely on who's adjacent or near them in the tier list to make them where they are, they rely on all the characters.

 

[jigglover]

That's an odd way to think about it, and it's kind of obvious that the characters rely on each other to maintain the overall tier list, but I suppose you're right, though I think you're making it a bit complicated.

Like I said above though, characters don't just rely on who's adjacent or near them in the tier list to make them where they are, they rely on all the characters.

I suppose I am making it fairly compliacted, and now I've run out of things to say...

 

[Deleted member]

Updated nominations.

Four hours and thirty minutes left.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

That's kind of what I said. Overall, lets have Pikachu as an example, he is weaker than Marth, which puts him lower, but then stronger than Wario, and since Wario is stronger than ZSS, and ZSS stronger than Lucario and it carries on like that, then Pikachu is in the middle of Marth and Wario. As a whole, Pikachu is stronger than the characters that Wario is not, so Pikachu relies on Wario and Marth for him to stay high, and he needs to stay stronger than Wario since Wario is strong.

That's not how the tier list works.

Characters lower in the tier list can have advantages over people higher in the tier list than them.

Even Meta Knight has characters that have advantages over him.

However, in an overall tournament, the tier list displays who is the most probable of winning.

 

[Oasis_S]

Four hours and thirty minutes left.

Just make it end already.

[anguish]

 

[Arcadenik]

Ignoring the tier list argument we are having at this moment...

Sukapon. Want = 1 Likelihood = 0

It would be pretty cool if Sukapon was in Smash but I guess I just don't care about Sukapon as much as I do with other retro characters (Takamaru, Duck Hunt Dog, Muddy Mole). And well, Sakurai did tell Sukapon supporters "don't expect him in future Smash games" so...

Nominations = Dixie Kong, Meowth, Toad, Tingle, King Hippo

 

[MelMoe]

Nominations

IceClimbers x5

Voting & Discussing

Sukapon

Personal Bias: 3.33
Likelihood: 0.47

Sukapon is a cute, funny robot from Nintendo's first fighting game, Joy Fight Mech. I would love to see him playable.

Sadly, Sakurai has already shot him down as a playable character. He may or may not revisit the idea to work it out. Sukapon's popularity has also diminished throughout the years. His game is obscure since it is a Japan-only retro. Unlike Takamaru, Sukapon has only had appearances in his original game & as stickers in Brawl. Takamaru's playability in Samurai Warriors 3 gained him reach to more audiences. Sakapon has big competition with other, more popular retros, which is why I don't think we will see him.

Prediction

Bowser Jr.: 3.68

 

[Deleted member]

Just make it end already.

[anguish]

EXTEND IT.

Do it, SSBF....

 

[Deleted member]

"Rejection by Sakurai and is not to be expected"

The words by Astro that was read out to the crowd. It hurt, but it was the undeniable truth. Sukapon was probably not getting in. Despite some fan support, his likelihood score would make any man cry; an absymal 0.48 in likelihood, putting him in second-to-last place. His want score was much better, but still at a relatively low 2.18 in want. Fan support had clearly diminished since the last time he was up for consideration, and probably the last time Sakurai would consider him. lobotheduck21 wasn't paying attention, but earned himself five extra nominations for the day.

Defeated, Sukapon walked away cold and tired, waiting for the day when he would be up for consideration. It was the hardest walk he had ever made.

Just after he left the stadium, he saw some airships above. It was going above the stadium, not exactly the most standard way to get in. It slowly came down on the platform. When it hit the platform, Bowser Jr. quickly ran out to meet the crowd. Fans praised his named for being the son of an evil king while others cringe the at thought of him making the roster.

He was the first of the potential Mario newcomer, which was a war between many characters for a fifth possible Mario spot. Whenever or not it would happen would remain to be seen.

Day Twenty-Three begins! Day ends at 4:40 PM CST. You may vote for Bowser Jr. and predict Krystal's score tomorrow.

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

Bowser Jr.:
Want- 1.9
Likelihood- 2.9

Meh, Jr.'s definetely not my top pick for a Mario rep, I'd much rather have Waluigi, Toad or Paper Mario.
Now, I can see Jr. getting in because he's a pretty important character in the Mario series(not so much for SM3DL and NSMB2), though, here's the problem: Sakurai.
Sakurai has barely shown any interest in him, so I'd say his chances are pretty slim.
I think that the only new Mario rep that Sakurai has shown at least some interest for is Waluigi, due to him being an AT in Brawl, but don't quote me on that.

Nominations
Ganondorf x3
Black Shadow
Toad

Prediction for Krystal- 2.45

 

[Deleted member]

Bowser Jr.:
Want: 2.5
I don't really care one way or the other.

Likelihood: 2.5
It's unknown whether or not Mario will even get a Newcomer, and it's unknown who it will be. However, if one was to happen, it would be either Jr., Waluigi, or Toad.

 

[N3ON]

Want: 3.0
He's my most wanted Mario character (apart from Geno ), but honestly I would be satisfied getting any of the "four" (Jr, Toad, Paper Mario, Waluigi), so he doesn't really stand out as one of my "most-wanted" characters.

Likelihood: 3.0
Due to a mix of him appearing in both main and spin-off Mario games, as well as having on average being one of the most demanded for Smash of any Mario character worldwide (Waluigi is the other), I think he is the most likely Mario newcomer, however I think he has some solid competition and is far from a "lock" for the Mario series. I wouldn't be surprised if another Mario characters was included instead. And honestly, all four have their positives.

Nomz:
x3 Megaman
x2 Lucario

I'm excited for Krystal tomorrow.
I can't wait to hear all the hate she gets.
My prediction for her is 2.15.

 

[Deleted member]

Bowser Jr.

So we've finally gotten into one of these; the (flame) war that is the possible fifth Mario spot; which could go to either Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Waluigi, Geno, or even Dr. Mario returning. Who knows, but today's contender is Bowser Jr.

Fist off, I must mention the "high bar" theory. The bar to get one in will be very high and we can't say for sure that any of them meet it according to Sakurai.

Bowser Jr. has made himself into a very popular candidate for SSB4, although that can be said for everyone on that list except for Dr. Mario. Since his debut with Super Mario Sunshine (which is where people get most of his ideas from), Bowser Jr. has been an important part of the Super Mario Bros. franchise, appearing in many games and appearing in all of the mainstream games up until Super Mario Galaxy 2...

Wait? You're telling me that he didn't appear in Super Mario 3D Land and New Super Mario Bros. 2? Are you also telling me he may not be in New Super Mario Bros. U?

Yes and yes. A potential problem might be arising here for Bowser Jr., that he could be leaving the mainstream franchise. I'm not saying that relevance is a problem here, but I am saying that his importance could very well be dwindling and he could disappear for a long while. This means his shot to be in Smash is right now and not just later on, else he could be too unimportant to get in the next time around.

Another issue is that the Super Mario Bros. franchise might be done with adding characters. Right now, it's hard to say whenever or not the franchise will even get a newcomer, given that King K. Rool and probably Dixie Kong will get first priority (Sakurai does take into account Donkey Kong, Yoshi, and Wario as part of the Mario series). It's a wait and see game for whenever or not the franchise even gets a newcomer.

I am going to give Bowser Jr. a 2.7 in likelihood. He's as close to a 50/50 as I feel you'll get for a potential candidate. That being said, I have no qualms with any of the six candidates I've mentioned above and Bowser Jr. with an unique move set looks a lot of fun to play as, so I give him a 3.5 in want.

I nominate Mega Man, Lucario, Mii, Ghirahim, and Mach Rider.

I predict that Krystal is getting a 2.18 when the day is over. She is the most polarizing candidate for this game.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Bowser Jr is one of those characters that may be overlooked simply due to competition reasonings. However Bowser Jr. is still a decent choice from a potential stand-point, albeit a somewhat uninteresting one. That is to say if a new Mario character will be added, which may or may not be the case this time around. But if a Mario character will be added, Bowser Jr. is one of the more plausible choices.

Want: 2.20
Likelihood: 2.89

Predicting a 1.91 for Krystal.

Nominations are Toad (x3) and Megaman (x2)

 

[BKupa666]

Want: 5
Likelihood: 4

This guy was my most wanted for a long time, until K. Rool surpassed him around 2010.

I think Bowser Jr. is possibly one of the easiest characters to add into Smash. If he is given proper development time, he can have an absolutely fantastic paint-based moveset, which is much more than Toad can say...Toad, who people just slap Mario power-ups on and call unique. Yeah, you can't just dismiss Jr. and whine that "he only fights in mechs," because not only is this untrue, but even his machinery can be used for moves, possibly for a Final Smash. Even if Jr. isn't given much development time, he can still be included as a last minute clone of Bowser, or even Squirtle.

Relevance is certainly not a problem for Jr. if it isn't for K. Rool or an F-Zero character, especially since he was prominent in NSMBW, which will likely receive the most focus of any non-Galaxy Mario game in SSB4 (heck, give him Koopaling alternate costumes to represent those guys if necessary, since they're starting to recur in games without him). Neither are slots, I would think; though Wario may have been considered a Mario character when he was added (due to being grouped under Mario characters in Melee's poll), I highly doubt K. Rool or Dixie would be used to fill the same slot, since they've been in virtually no Mario games at all.

Thus, if a Mario character were added, it would very likely be him, with Paper Mario being his only real competition (Waluigi maybe having an outside chance only due to his AT description). His problem lies in whether or not Mario receives a new rep, since it's pretty clear the existing four characters will be more important than whoever is added. Though I think Mario should receive a rep, since even its side characters are more well-known than the vast majority of other characters, the lack of cohesive support for a single Mario rep, in combination with their relative unimportance compared to the "big four" may cause Sakurai to give the series a pass, once again.

Still, I maintain Jr. to be a solid, middle-of-the-road selection for SSB4.

Nominating Dixie and Megaman x2, Groose x1.

Krystal's Staff Krystal gets a 2.01 prediction.

 

[---]

Want: 0
Likeliness: 2.5

Not interested in any of the potential Mario newcomers. As for likeliness, pretty much has the same problem all the Mario newcomers have that I advocate, aka the high bar theory, which I'll get into if a question about it comes up. He could get in, but I wouldn't bet on it.