Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

[Deleted member]

A resounding cheer was given for Ness. After all of those years working to keep his position in Smash, it had paid off. Each game, he would return and each game, he would gain new fans that desired to play Earthbound a game that would never gain the recognition it deserves.

The questioned lied, would he return for yet another Smash game? As the first Brawl veteran up, this was, to almost everyone, very easy to answer. Yes, he was coming back and it showed with a fantasic 4.94 in likelihood and a only slightly worse 4.64. Ness made his own victory pose and then went his merry way. Venus of the Desert Bloom, who was a Ness fan, was give PK Heal to heal his body and it gave him five more nominations.

But now as a seemingly obvious veteran left, another one came. But this one was not so lucky. He was cut during Brawl for unknown reason, but like Mewtwo, Roy was ready to return and was determined to show what he was up to. He came into the stadium to many fans screaming "ROY'S OUR BOY!" and also many detractors that strongly opposed him. It was a battle between two forces of fans, both of whom had strong arguments and were prepared to tear each other down.

The battle had began for the question of who would be the next Fire Emblem addition. Like with everyone else, only time will tell.

Day Twenty-One has began! Vote for Roy's score and predict what Sukapon gets tomorrow. Day ends at 4 PM CST on August 13th, 2012.

While I'm at it, I'll throw in a 3.3 vote for likelihood and a 4 in want for Roy. Will explain former later.

Predicting Sukapon get a .61.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Roy's likelihood is a 2 in my eyes. He was merely a Marth clone in Melee, but if Nintendo can give him a non-clone moveset, that could make a difference.

Nominations
1: Dixie Kong
2: Black Shadow
3: Rosalina
4: Leon Powalski
5: Bowser Jr.

 

[jigglover]

I'm giving him a 1 for want, I feel there are too many sword-users and FE reps. It wasn't all that popular before melee and it's got more reps than metroid! I'd like a sword-user who can bring something different like Isaac. likelihood 2.2, I feel as if FE has moved on and deserves someone new such as Lyn or Micaiha.
Nominate bowser junior x2 and toad x3.

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Roy
Want: 3
He's a pretty cool guy, and I enjoyed how he played in Melee.

On a side note, I've never bought into this whole "we have too many sword users thing." As of Brawl, we had 5 sword users out of a roster of 39, and only 2 of them played even remotely similar to each other.
Likelihood: 4
There are other choices for a FE rep that could affect his chances, but not by much. As far as most Smash fans are concerned, Marth, Ike, Roy, and Lyn are the only Fire Emblem characters out there, and Roy is still really popular

Prediction for Sukapon: 1.9

Nominations:
x5 Dixie Kong

 

[Deleted member]

Roy:
Want: 4
Melee veteran. Planned for Brawl. Got a revamp in Awakening. Like with Ness, I don't care much about Roy personally, but those reasons make me want him.
Likelihood: 4
Melee veteran. Planned for Brawl. Got a revamp in Awakening. Roy is also one of the more requested characters worldwide.

 

[BKupa666]

Want: 0.5
Likelihood: 3

Why this guy was planned for Brawl, and is actually a popular request escapes me entirely. He has t3h ph1r3 and an inferior variation on Marth's moveset, big deal. His cut seemed almost universally regarded as inevitable prior to Brawl, but people still pretended it was a major, unexpected blow, post-release. Go figure.

That said, he still is a popular request, and is one of the most identifiable Fire Emblem characters, thanks to his Melee appearance. However, like I don't expect Pokemon to receive a newcomer, a cut veteran, and its advertisement character for Brawl (which would give it EIGHT characters), I don't expect Fire Emblem to receive FOUR characters with all three of those aforementioned archetypes, plus Marth. In my opinion, one of Ike and Roy makes the game, one does not; as to which one it will be, Sakurai and Intelligent Systems will decide. This time, I am leaning towards Ike getting the slot, since he is about as popular in Brawl as Roy was in Melee (both are important within Fire Emblem), and actually had an original moveset, whereas Mewtwo and Lucario are both original, but the former has more importance and has been popular for longer.

I rate Roy as somewhat likely, but less likely than I rated Mewtwo, because Mewtwo isn't a disposable clone.

Nominate Bowser Jr. x3, Dixie x2.

 

[Opossum]

Roy

2.5 in want. Middle ground.
2.5 in likelihood. Could go either way. Unlike Mewtwo, his series seems more exclusive, especially with the competition. I see him being added after Marth, Ike, and Krom, but only in the case of extra time.

Predicting .54 for Sukapon.

x5 Krom.

 

[SmashShadow]

I also don't buy into the sword user thing. Bottom line is he is the most wanted Fire Emblem character to get in the next game. He may have some competiton but roy beats them all in popularity. Also IMO Fire Emblem is nowhere near over represented as a franchise and don't see why 3 characters can't get in.

Want: 4.5
likeliness:3.47

sukapon .71
edit: forgot noms 5x bowser Jr.

 

[DakotaBonez]

Roy wields a flaming sword. 'Nuff said.

Want is a 4.

He was in melee and planned for brawl so his likekihood for SM4SH is a 4.


Nominating Ganondorf x5.

 

[deuxhero]

Likelihood: 3.6: Highly popular in Japan with moderate popularity in the west, but I notice very little overlap with FE6 fandom, with all of Roy's popularity coming from Smash. He has stiff competition from Krom/Lucina and any other potential FE newcomer
Want: 2: Having played FE6, Roy is... not very interesting. His personality is pretty under developed, and he is AWFUL stats wise, stuck with the most fragile * weapon in the series when he finally promotes with only 3 chapters to go (Only 1 in the bad ending).

Nominate Yoshimitsu x5

 

[---]

Want: 3
Likeliness: 3

x5 Saki

 

[FlareHabanero]

Want: 3.66
Likelihood: 3.30

The main contribution that Roy has is his popularity in Japan, despite being a clone of Marth. I suppose being DLC in Fire Emblem: Awakening with a redesigned look and being planned for Brawl too does help. But being cut from Brawl and with some competition around, there is a good possibility that Roy may be overlooked entirely.

Predicting a .30 for Sukapon.

Nominations are Toad (x3) and Bowser Jr. (x2)

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Well, since Sakurai has thought about Sukapon before, and included Joy mech fight stuff in Brawl, you'd think he'd at least get a 1

 

[Johnknight1]

Roy's Our Boy!!!!! Roy Has...THE FIIRREEEE!!!!!​

Want: 4.5: I love his character, how he's balanced, and how he fights in Fire Emblem 6. I also love his original sword play style, and I easily think he could be a great original character in smash bros. I also think, given his feel of "awesomeness" in Melee (despite sucking in that game) that Sakurai has a lot to work with.

Likelihood: 2.25.
Roy may be over-prioritized by new characters Krom like he was by Ike (and other new characters; possibly Sonic?), and thus be one of the last characters made. I expect him to be strongly considered, but that doesn't mean he'll be playable. He was strongly considered for Brawl, but he still fell quite a whiles away from "the final cut."

A thing worth noting is that Sakurai originally planned Ike having an axe (as a projectile) for his neutral B, but he deemed it broken (lol, Ike is far from broken!). So, it is possible that Ike's neutral B (that super fire attack) was the originally planned neutral or side B attack Roy would have used (I got this theory from ChronoBound, of course). I think that might be "proof" (along with Roy's relying heavily on stabbing moves; moves that are rarely used by SSB sword wielders) that Roy could be an original(ish) character in smash.

Prediction for Sukapon: 1.5

Nominate: Fox (x5)

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Roy


Popular in Japan and also the really really original "Smash Brother" who was considered on Brawl but was among the last cuts. Fire Emblem 13's DLC brought him back pretty well though .

I dunno is there though much of stuff rooting for Roy expect his popularity and him being considered for Brawl: what might now matter is that is he just as important to add in as Mewtwo who's more widely known? Roy's game has to yet out of come from Japan, thus leading to his overseas fans consisting mostly of Smash Bros-fans. I don't want to say that doesn't though count as not being a true fan of Roy but I dunno really would he feel much home to people if being all "FE6"-based. He'd take a while to get used to as an individual from FE-games rather than Smash Bros which all people grew up with. Who knows.


Want: 3.6
Likelyhood: 2.9

Predicting Sukapon to score 1.5

Noms:

Lip x5

 

[Phaazoid]

Roy's our boy!

I'd love for Roy to return. gonna say 4 in want.
Idk if he has any chance though. gonna say 2 in probability, with all the FE competition.

Predicting sukapon gets a .8

5 shy guy votes :3

 

[DMurr]

I would love to have Roy back, although I think there are better Fire Emblem characters. There are many good candidates competing for that spot too. I doubt there will be more than 3 Fire Emblem characters, and I expect them to be Marth, Ike and Krom. Sakurai did like Roy enough to include him as a character in Smash Bros. before his actual game's release, but that's been years ago, now. He didn't like him enough to get him to stay for Brawl, so I doubt he'll come back now. I'm positive that Krom's popularity exceeds Roy's among Japanese fans., giving him priority over Roy . American fans just don't have Krom's game yet. I doubt Roy will come back, but he might have a better chance than some other characters though.

Want: 3
Likeliness: 1.75

I'll guess Sukapon at around a 1.1.

Nominate Lyndis x5.

 

[N3ON]

I think FE is going to have three reps this time around, with one being Marth, and the other two being made up of either Ike, Roy, or Krom. Personally I think Ike has the best chance of all three, so Roy's real competition lies with Krom, who (at least in Japan -- where both their games have come out) is more popular than Roy in general, though Roy is still more requested for Smash, being the second most behind Mewtwo. Also, while I was reading through some Japanese comments, FE characters and just general FE discussion were constantly brought up, showing that FE in Japan is among the "major" series in Smash, akin to Kirby and DK, and definitely more than Metroid or Starfox. So with this immense popularity, I think Roy's chances are pretty decent, but honestly he does face some fierce FE competition. In the west, I definitely wouldn't be surprised if Krom became much more requested when his game comes out, but by then Sakurai probably will have already decided which FE characters he will be including.

Personally, Roy is my most wanted FE candidate, and I think his new design is all kinds of awesome.

Want: 4
Likelihood: 3.4

Nomz:
x5 Krystal

 

[Deleted member]

Roy

I used to play with Roy a lot during Melee, so I dearly missed him during Brawl and wished I had never given Melee away. Given the competition he has with Krom, his inclusion is less certain than that of Mewtwo (whom I feel is very much near shoe-in position), but I still feel as he has the upper hand here.

I think Fire Emblem is due for a third spot (it should have gotten one in Brawl) and as stated before, is between Roy and Krom. Marth of course is a guarantee and I think Ike is almost a sure bet as well, so the real question is that third spot. I feel Roy is more likely for a few reasons:

One of which is that Sakurai values the character beyond just one game. When Sakurai added Roy he, he didn't add him just to promote the FE6 upcoming game, he added him to promote the series. Now people will try to counter this with him being cut from Brawl, but remember that he was planned to be in the game up until late in development and cut due to time constraints. Had Sakurai gotten his way, Roy would have returned. Given this, I have no doubts that he will be seriously considered again.

What also very important is his popularity. Roy was one of the most popular addition during Melee and gained a large fan base around that game. Currently for Smash 4, he is a popular request for a return in the West, but in Japan, he is the most wanted character for Smash 4, even beating out Mewtwo by a slight margin. Sakurai will notice Roy's popularity continues on to this date. I think there's a decent shot that he'll return for this game.

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

Roy:
Want- 4.5
Likelihood- 3.9

Roy's probably the most requested character for SSB4 after Mewtwo; he's got quite a bit to work with his flaming sword and he's also got a revamp in Fire Emblem Awakening.
Though, he has pretty good competition against characters such as Krom and even Ike.

Nominations
Waluigi x2
Black Shadow
Ganondorf

Prediction for Sukapon- 0.45

 

[Sqid]

Want: 4.46
Only reasons that it's not a 5 is because I don't want him THAT much if they don't redo his moveset (which is likely that they will, since they have to recreate him and can't copy him over from Brawl), and that he might replace Ike, one of my favorite characters and mains.
Likelihood: 4.12
He's pretty heavily requested, and is DLC for the new FE game. The only issues I see have to do with how many slots FE gets (3 or 4) and how they are split up between Marth, Roy, Ike, and Krom.

Prediction for Sukapon: 0.43

Nominations: 5x Krom

Also, SSBF, you have ZSS listed as x1 twice in nominations.

 

[Genericmartini]

Roy's got a good shot of returning, I think with a renovated moveset he can be something unique in Smash 4.(Plus i'd like for someone to have the Returnee subtitle above their name when they show up)

Likelihood:3.05
Want: 5
nominations:
Skull Kid X2
Toad X2
Krystal X1

 

[MelMoe]

Nominations

IceClimbers x5

Voting & Discussing

Roy

Personal Bias: 2.5
Likelihood: 2

Roy was one of my most played characters in Melee, I thought the fire was cooler than Marth. In Brawl, I didn't miss him. To me, he was just a red haired Marth with flashy attacks. I will be more disappointed if he showed up again instead of a new, better character. However if he gains a new moveset my opinion might change. I must admit that if he fights with a fire sword the entire time that would be bad***.

I also don't think he is very likely. His popularity is mainly because he was in Melee. His game, Sword of Seals, is still restricted to Japan, that hurts his chances. Fire Emblem games have been pouring out of Japan since Blazing Sword so I think it is more likely that a more recognizable Fire Emblem character, like Krom, will be playable.

Ike won't be cut. He is one of the most popular characters in Brawl & Fire Emblem. Ike is one of those rare Fire Emblem characters that was a main character in more than one game. I read somewhere he is supposed to be apart of a trilogy; no I don't have the evidence to support this.

Prediction

Sukapon: 0.57

 

[kisamefishfries]

Roy?
im impartial to this so
want: 2.5
Likeliness: 2
I don't think we are going to be seeing him, but hey who knows?

Sukapon prediction? uhhh... .62

nominations
Paper Mario x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

I liked Roy back in Melee. I would often switch between Roy and Marth in order to get to know the two characters. However, I wasn't extremely sad to see him get the boot in Brawl and got over it fairly quickly. I am fairly indifferent about Roy's return at this point. However, I think he has a slightly advantage since he is DLC content in Fire Emblem Kakusei and is the second most requested veteran returnee after Mewtwo. Additionally, he is heavily requested by Japanese audiences. However, he has deal with competition from other characters such as Krom and Ike, who may or may not be returning. However, I feel that it is a battle between the three: Krom, Ike, and Roy and I feel that FE will recieve three roster slots. Therefore, one of them will not return/make an appearance.

For Roy,

Want: 3.5
Likeliness: 2.9

Sukapon's Prediction: 0.8

Nominations:

M. Bison x3
Saki x2
Toon Zelda x2
Skull Kid x2
Dixie Kong x1

 

[Deleted member]

Day ends in less than ten hours. Make sure to get your votes in between those time.

 

[Fluttershy]

Want 2.1
Like. 1.2

Nominations
Shadow the Hedgehog x5

 

[lobotheduck21]

likelyhood 4: super popular, and was cut for brawl due to time constraints

want: 3 impartial

nominations: mr stevenson x 5 (have I used up the ones i've won yet?)

prediction 0.5

 

[jigglover]

Want 2.1
Like. 1.2

Nominations
Shadow the Hedgehog x5

Explain your choices or they won't be counted. Come on guys! 21 (nearly 22) days of this, we should have got the rules down by now!
I'm not sure if I've nominated yet today, but if not then 5 for Waluigi (I don't like him, I just want him over with during my holiday(and yes, I am definatly going on it this time) and don't want to be around for the debate.)

 

[Deleted member]

Surprisingly, a war did not break out between the two opposition, despite a minor battle. But it was clear that it was a confrontational period. Look back and you could see Roy being either torn apart or built up to sizes. Regardless, the twenty-four likelihood votes were interesting and the twenty-three want votes revealed which sides were chosen for this future Fire Emblem battle to come.

Roy did fair in the poll, although nothing to write home about. He received a 3.03 in likelihood, an okay score. However, he did do decently with a 3.33 in want, more of what Roy was striving for. To many, he was just another Fire Emblem character, but to his fans, he was their boy and always would be. PsychoIncarnate, despite not participating, guessed very close to the final score and received five more nomination for his accuracy. It look as the Opossum was slipping up as his reputation started to go down the drain.

Roy left valiantly, hoping to make his return, even for one last time. Meanwhile, Sukapon came into a scene. An obscure retro rep, he was not known by many, yet felt so familiar. People asked, why was this the case? It would soon be pretty obvious.

Day Twenty-Two begins! Sukapon is up today with Bowser Jr.'s score being predicted for tomorrow. Day ends at 4:45 PM CST.

Giving Sukapon a flat 0 in likelihood. Was rejected by Sakurai and there's no reason for Sakurai to reconsider him. Heck, Sakurai even said "don't expect him". Yeah.

It's too bad as Sukapon would be awesome to see. 4 in want.

Nominate Mega Man, Ghirahim, Mach Rider, Mii, and Lucario.

Predicting that Bowser Jr. is getting a 3.13 in likelihood.

Edit: Flavor for Ness's score has been added.

 

[Johnknight1]

~Sukapon~​

Want: 2
I don't know Sukapon's game (Joy Mecha Fighter) very well (other than some nice cutesy music), but I do know that there is quite a lot to work with. Still, it isn't enough to get me particularly excited over or clamor to support. In other words, it is very hard to visualize being "fun." Perhaps if I saw Sukapon playable in a smash bros game, that would change.

Likelihood:0.5
Sakurai has already considered Sukapon heavily, and I think he might give Sukapon a few looks again. However, I doubt Sukapon will even come close to making the final roster regardless of how much he is "considered."

My prediction for Bowser Jr. is 2.25

Nominate: Mega Mega Mega Mega Man (5x) *dooh dooh dooh dooh dooh dooooooo* (you know that song)

 

[N3ON]

Want: 3.6
I used to really really want Sukapon to be included, but as his popularity faded so did my desire to see him. Or at least it was overshadowed by other characters, I would still really enjoy his inclusion.

Likelihood: 0.4
With Sakurai rejecting Sukapon as a playable possibility, I'd say his chances were pretty minimal, no matter how well he would fit in. Plus around Melee he had alot more popularity, and if Sakurai will reject that, then him getting in now is even more unlikely. However, Sakurai did say that statement about Sukapon over a decade ago, so while I believe it's very unlikely he'll get in ever in Smash, there's a tiny possibility Sakurai has changed his mind since then.

Nomz:
x5 Krystal

Bowser Jr. prediction: 2.45

 

[deuxhero]

Likely: 1. Sakurai said not to expect him, but wasn't it for technical reasons?
Want: 2. Could be cool

Nominate Yoshimitsu x5

 

[Opossum]

I'm slipping up...oh my...


Anyway, time to rank [word removed for fear of Oasis' health]!

Want: 4.5

I really like [word removed for fear of Oasis' health]. [word removed for fear of Oasis' health] offers quite a bit moveset wise, being from a fighting game. Plus, he could borrow from other fighters if need be. Plus, in game, [word removed for fear of Oasis' health] is a comedian. We could use another dose of humor.

Sadly, [word removed for fear of Oasis' health]'s likelihood is not so great. He was already denounced by Sakurai once, with him saying something similar to, "Don't expect [word removed for fear of Oasis' health]!" This doesn't bode well, and saddens many. However, perhaps Sakurai sees the sadness stirred by [word removed for fear of Oasis' health] (Alliteration!), and will rethink him. With that, I give [word removed for fear of Oasis' health] a 0.3 in likelihood.

Predicting a 2.9 for Bowser Jr.

Nominate Toad x5

 

[jigglover]

0 want
0 likelihood
will explain in morning.

 

[DMurr]

Would Roy not be considered a veteran character, technically? Or Mewtwo?

Didn't Sakurai reject Sukapon before Melee was released? Or was it before Brawl? He might have changed his mind by now. I do think that the character is pretty unlikely though. He doesn't have a whole lot of history with or importance to Nintendo, however, I do see him as next in line in the Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B. line, unless they decided to include Diskun as a character.. which I feel like is more obscure than Skapon and has less moveset potential than him.

Want: .75
Likeliness: 1.1

I'll say Bowser Jr. will have about a 2.65 likeliness rating.

I nominate Lyndis x5.

 

[lobotheduck21]

@opossum http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RidsxnnVTR4

want 3: impartial

likelyhood: 1 , only thing going for him is that he is considered

predict: 3.5

nominations: Ray (custom robo) x 5

 

[Opossum]

I had that coming.

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

Sukapon:
Want- 1.5
Likelihood- 0

Sakurai himself has stated to not expect him, so I don't see him appearing any time soon now.

Nominations
Ganondorf x2
Waluigi x2
Mach Rider

Prediction for Bowser Jr.- 3.45

 

[lobotheduck21]

I had that coming.

Not that much, but I saw an opportunity that i couldn't pass up