As for his chances of coming back, well I was one of the few that believed he would return in Smash 4, and so now I have no doubts whatsoever. Even though Sakurai did think that Smash 4 had too many FE characters I still doubt he's gonna take a chainsaw to the lineup, and if we're going by recent polls done for FEH, Ike is THE most popular FE character period.
Yeah I remember the early Smash 4 days. A lot thought he would be replaced by Chrom, but Ike stood strong.
Gonna be honest, I was one of those few.
Right at the end of Brawl's lifetime, I grew ultra fond of Ike. As I grew more attached to his character, I began to appreciate his Radiant Dawn design (which I originally disliked along with many other people). However, there came a point where I recognized that him becoming muscular like that only made sense. It was actually the greatest visual distinction of character growth for him. A distinction that I began to agree with wholeheartedly.
However, I also was unsure that Ike would stay in with the chance of Chrom replacing him.
Around the time in which Lucario was revealed for Sm4sh in the Pic of the Day, I finally and fully came around that I really wanted Ike in Sm4sh, and not just Ike, but Radiant Dawn Ike. I told this all to my best friend, and he agreed.
Skip forward a while, and we reach May 23rd, 2014. The Pic of the Day revealed Ike in all his swole glory.
My exact comment and response in that thread was this:
YEEEEESSSSS, The character I wanted the most to return HAS!!!
*EXPLODES*
We like Ike, we like Ike!
Of course, that was what I managed to type after flying away from my computer desk while hyperventilating.
Now, I was hyped for Sm4sh, but nothing and I mean NOTHING ever managed to top Ike's reveal for me.
And for me, Cloud's reveal was REALLY HYPE. I was more blown away from Cloud's reveal, but Ike's reveal truly rocked my world. I dedicated him as one of my main characters immediately from that moment. And to this day, he remains on my top 3 best Sm4sh characters: Cloud, Ike, and Ganondorf. Ike also has the "Most Play Time" hours on any single character.
But I was still a doubter. I was specifically a follower of the "Marth and the newest Lord" idea, and regardless of how I felt about that (I personally believed that Chrom would get in despite also telling my best friend that Robin would be a WAY better choice... oh the irony of that prediction) I couldn't shake that feeling, and still wanted Ike in.
But he got in, so I felt better about it. I'm pretty confident that he'll return for this one.