Project M Community MU Chart [αlpha]

[AuraMaudeGone]

So it looks like the biggest gaps in the data right now are, in ascending, Peach, Squirtle, Yoshi, and Pit. With those matchups filled in, most of the chart would be complete.

I assume Pit is so uncertain because of his recent overhaul. Perhaps Bowser's matchups should also be re-evaluated once more data comes in about his redesign?

However, we could probably do something about Peach, Squirtle, and Yoshi for the shortrun. I think the only issue is the lack of mains for these characters.

What are Bladewise's thoughts on Peach's matchups? Hamyojo would probably have some good feedback about Yoshi even if he doesn't play him as much anymore. And I know Wombat knows a bunch of Squirtle tech, does he place well enough at tournaments to be a viable source of info?

It just seems like no one plays Pit at all.
Once the chart is filled out, I'll start a new phase of evaluation and rerun the numbers. Afterwards, we could have some real discussion to verify the MUs as they currently stand at the time.

 

[Kneato]

It just seems like no one plays Pit at all.
Once the chart is filled out, I'll start a new phase of evaluation and rerun the numbers. Afterwards, we could have some real discussion to verify the MUs as they currently stand at the time.

TBH I think you will be re-running the numbers for literally years to come. At the current rate, we will have at LEAST another 2 years of PM patches before a gold version happens.

But on the bright side, every new patch will hopefully have less and less drastic changes as characters get closer and closer to their final "balanced" renditions. Likely no major re-designs in the late phase of the PM Development lifetime.

 

[ECHOnce]

TBH I think you will be re-running the numbers for literally years to come. At the current rate, we will have at LEAST another 2 years of PM patches before a gold version happens.

But on the bright side, every new patch will hopefully have less and less drastic changes as characters get closer and closer to their final "balanced" renditions. Likely no major re-designs in the late phase of the PM Development lifetime.

On that note, are we archiving these scores? Being able to reflect on the community's reception of certain events (slight/major buffs/nerfs, potential overreactions over character performances at big events, after exploits are found, etc.) would be insightful. Things like...seeing if there's a pattern for how long it takes for more drastic opinions to settle down after these events, or how long it takes for meta to move forward (how long it takes for players to integrate new stuff into their play, based on trends of mains rating their character higher/lower, and then other characters rating themselves higher/lower in reaction). There's got to be some psychological term for this "change in mindset over time" stuff lol. All it would need to work is monthly loggings, +important dates like balance patches or nationals. Preferably not immediately available to the public to avoid any pseudo "we're being watched" bias, whatever that's called.

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

Short answer: Yes.

 

[Kneato]

...Preferably not immediately available to the public to avoid any pseudo "we're being watched" bias, whatever that's called.

Observer effect. I cracked a smile over your creative titles.

Also, this would be super easy to implement. Just create backups of the MU sheet with the final date edited as the name of the file. Maybe also the version of PM it was for. They could even be done as different tabs on the same sheet. That would make it really easy to flip through the versions and see the progression over time.

 

[Narelex]

IMO I think its 60:40 IC's favor or 50:50

Like once I put up the desync blizzard/Iceblock wall, literally MK can't do anything. His nair can get punished on shield since it's two of us. He works best when he gets the two off stage. But even then Sopo can matchup with MK if you play it paitent.

Down throw chains work crazy good with Sopo. MK dies farily quick off the top too (85%+). MK can't just run in with the pressure unless he wants to get grabbed up. Also handoffs near the ledge are super easy to do on MK. WD Jab is really good for IC's in this MU as well.

MK favors in splitting up the two and hopes of gimping their recovery. Once separated, It can be hard to get them back together, in which MK excells at doing. When split, MK can juggle Nana with up airs, nairs, and just zone her out while taking minimum to no damage from Popo. Stage dependancy works to a CERTAIN extent, since IC's have crazy disjointed upairs when synced, if MK tries to camp platforms, timjng upairs right can hinder his camping ability.

Here's some footage of really good MK players in my region; check it out:

vs Almighty: http://youtu.be/Jy_Z9Q7HBnA (Most Recent)
vs Almighty: http://youtu.be/sLJW63VTxUI (Fairly Recent)

vs Gurukid: http://youtu.be/nQ9DAESdv4k (Most Recent)

That honestly looks really terrible but I'm curious about how well that would work against a top MK like Holy. Why do you say 60/40 or a 50/50? those are two pretty distinct differences.

I would also need to watch other footage of those MK's to determine their skill level, since ICies are such an odd character. Any vids you could link me? How well do they usually place?

 

[Kneato]

One thing I noticed.

Although this isn't the tier list speculation thread, once this chart gets fully fleshed out, people will inevitably begin referencing it as a source of data to back up tier list discussion.

Perhaps we should theorize different calculations that could be used to "rank" and compare characters.

Currently, we have AVG and MIN. I think some could argue that in a game that is so matchup heavy, a character's bad matchups is what decides his "worth". I wrote a little formula that sums all character's bad matchups and then factors in their worst matchup by adding a small constant that corresponds to the "badness" of that matchup.

( =-(ABS(SUMIF(C2:AQ2, "<0"))+(ABS(AT2/2)))/10 )

I.E. if one character has three -1's and a different character has one -3, the -3 character is rated slightly worse.

I think this is a decent measurement. Say if there was a patch that made changes to DDD and simply made him better at the few matchups he currently barely wins, we wouldn't really consider DDD that much better. But if either his overly negative matchups were made easier, or some of his slightly negative matchups became positive, we would probably say DDD has seen meaningful improvement.

It currently favors characters with more data missing, but if it is of any interest, here is how it ranks the cast:

Spoiler

Notably, it puts Falco lower on the list than you'd expect, mostly in part that he has a handful of matchups that are much harder for him than anything that Marth for example has to face.

I'm sure there are alternative, probably better ways to quantify character worth. What do you guys think? Got any other ideas?

 

[Phresh123]

That honestly looks really terrible but I'm curious about how well that would work against a top MK like Holy. Why do you say 60/40 or a 50/50? those are two pretty distinct differences.

I would also need to watch other footage of those MK's to determine their skill level, since ICies are such an odd character. Any vids you could link me? How well do they usually place?

You can type there name on YT they have some decent vids and off those same channels the other vids were listed.

They both do fairly well at the weeklies placing top 10. But to answer your question the reason being its a distint difference all comes from:

1) stage
2) agression

Generally, mk is going to either play the air game or rush in. As a counter, IC's can either play paitent with up-airs, or desync blizzard/iceblocks into grabs if they get aggro.

Big stages generates more time for MK to air camp, but IC's can use there B moves to keep space.

Small stages are good for both characters. However, the smaller the stage, the quicker it is for IC's to get to the ledge which leads to instant handoffs. Killing off the sides on small stages shouldn't be so hard.

MK SHOULD play the MU safe, and if so, that's where the big difference in who wins the MU plays out.

 

[Narelex]

You can type there name on YT they have some decent vids and off those same channels the other vids were listed.

They both do fairly well at the weeklies placing top 10. But to answer your question the reason being its a distint difference all comes from:

1) stage
2) agression

Generally, mk is going to either play the air game or rush in. As a counter, IC's can either play paitent with up-airs, or desync blizzard/iceblocks into grabs if they get aggro.

Big stages generates more time for MK to air camp, but IC's can use there B moves to keep space.

Small stages are good for both characters. However, the smaller the stage, the quicker it is for IC's to get to the ledge which leads to instant handoffs. Killing off the sides on small stages shouldn't be so hard.

MK SHOULD play the MU safe, and if so, that's where the big difference in who wins the MU plays out.

If MK isn't playing it safe then he's not playing it properly IMO. MK shouldn't be air camping he's a groundbased DD char like marth that converts to air strings. He's vulnerable in the air when his opponent is grounded.

From what I've seen though I'll be moving them up to an even MU on my list. Sound reasonable?

 

[un.dead]

Actually on second thought nevermind, nobody would care anyway

 

[Kneato]

Actually on second thought nevermind, nobody would care anyway

Not with that batitude!

 

[un.dead]

Not with that batitude!

Nobody knows who I am so what reason do they have to trust me on anything

 

[Narelex]

I'm compiling the MK list based off top player feedback I should hopefully have it ready in the next few days.

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

Nobody knows who I am so what reason do they have to trust me on anything

At least talk about it with your respective character board and come back.

 

[un.dead]

At least talk about it with your respective character board and come back.

Alright, will do.

 

[Taytertot]

Nobody knows who I am so what reason do they have to trust me on anything

while no one may know who you are, if you make good, logical points then people will be forced to agree with you. If there are flaws in your logic then someone will point it out and thus you will have learned something that you can use to improve your game/theories.

 

[Tomaster]

while no one may know who you are, if you make good, logical points then people will be forced to agree with you.

Sorry but that's just not how it works nowadays... People will only agree with you if you say what they wanna hear, otherwise they wouldn't even consider the idea of you being right. (Unless ur well known)

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

Sorry but that's just not how it works nowadays... People will only agree with you if you say what they wanna hear, otherwise they wouldn't even consider the idea of you being right. (Unless ur well known)

Good thing I hardly discriminate.

 

[SoulPech]

Oh man. words are being put in my mouth

 

[Taytertot]

Sorry but that's just not how it works nowadays... People will only agree with you if you say what they wanna hear, otherwise they wouldn't even consider the idea of you being right. (Unless ur well known)

i realize that that is common but i dont like that being apart of the smash community. Competitive gaming is very mathematical in nature and shouldn't be looked at as "those who are known are the only ones who should be listened to." If someone has logic and proof to back up their argument then the idea should be considered. By being stuck in the old mindset of only listening to those who've made a name for themselves we, as a community, are holding back possible progressions in the meta that someone else may have notice but isnt getting heard.

 

[Tomaster]

i realize that that is common but i dont like that being apart of the smash community. Competitive gaming is very mathematical in nature and shouldn't be looked at as "those who are known are the only ones who should be listened to." If someone has logic and proof to back up their argument then the idea should be considered. By being stuck in the old mindset of only listening to those who've made a name for themselves we, as a community, are holding back possible progressions in the meta that someone else may have notice but isnt getting heard.

Yea I agree, I don't think we can do anything to change that though, you can't force people to dump their bias.

 

[Narelex]

i realize that that is common but i dont like that being apart of the smash community. Competitive gaming is very mathematical in nature and shouldn't be looked at as "those who are known are the only ones who should be listened to." If someone has logic and proof to back up their argument then the idea should be considered. By being stuck in the old mindset of only listening to those who've made a name for themselves we, as a community, are holding back possible progressions in the meta that someone else may have notice but isnt getting heard.

I think the thing is that most "newer" players tend to Not have the logic to back up their arguments. Logically de-constructing the MU's is great and most people will listen to what you have to say.

We see a lot of X beats Y and then they refuse to talk about both characters tools or are basing it off "only" their experiences. They also tend to overvalue punish games as a metric. Just because a character has a chaingrab on X doesn't make it a bad MU if X has a better neutral. There are lots of factors that go into a MU and most players aren't at a high enough level to understand how they work.

If you can explain MU's in a logical way that weighs both characters options in the Neutral and Punish game. Most people will tend to agree since you're using facts to deduce it. So long as you defend your argument with facts and handle criticism without lashing out most people can be won over.

 

[Soft Serve]

my current opinions on a Diddy MU spread:
-3: ( if you lose banana in the ditto)
-2:
-1:
Even: (if both have banana or neither have banana)
+1:
+2: (with aura)
+3(or better): (no aura)(if they lose banana in the ditto)

Feel like losing MUs but can't quantify the numbers:

Feel like winning Mus but cant quantify the numbers:


probably even:

Diddy is a stagger god

Spoiler: thoughts/discussion, spoilered to reduce clutter

my current opinions on a Diddy MU spread:

My notes are going to be massive simplifications of MUs, and if someone disagrees I'd love to discuss them in detail. I think this is a pretty optimistic MU spread, because a lot of diddy's MUs require him to win like, 12 neutral interactions to take a stock, and he dies in like, 3/4 max (mostly floaties), and while on paper diddy should win every interaction because he's ****ing amazing, people are still human and make wrong calls/get outplayed, and diddy gets bodied when he gets outplayed.

basically, diddy loses to rush down characters he cant pin down or get away from, floaties that he can't kill or combo, characters that stalemate him in neutral, and characters that function incredibly well still when holding an item (normally paired with some of the other traits). He goes even with a select few other super mobile characters/air based characters, ICs is a jank even MU, slightly beats a handful, and bodies or out camps everyone else.
-3: ( if you lose banana in the ditto)

While it might seem like hyperbole, you guys have no idea what its like. Its basically a worse falcon vs 3.0 diddy.
-2:

Put roughly, wolf/fox rush diddy down enough to prevent diddy from pulling/controlling a banana unless diddy already won an interaction, control neutral, diddy's OoS options (glide toss OoS) don't work vs shine pressure, Diddy only has tech chases until around 40% (afterwards he gets chaingrab/platform tech chases). its rough. completely winnable, but rough.

Mewtwo is floaty, hard to edgeguard, harder to kill, difficult to control where he goes in neutral, nearly as mobile, out prioritizes diddy in neutral, and functions incredibly well with an item in hand (DJC z drop, hover aerials, giant glide toss burst movement, etc etc). At a high level of execution and spacing, I feel like m2 has a slight edge in most positions in neutral, and has a far stronger punish game on diddy than the reverse. Completely workable, but an uphill battle.
-1:
Peach/samus never ****ing die, neutral is a stalemate. Diddy is great at getting under peach though, and has the potential to time her out, which is why its only light disadvatage. Samus is similar, its hard as balls to kill her, minimal combos. These MUs are battles of attrition that diddy has a slight disadvantage in.

Sonic is dumb. Yoshi is dumber. Diddy has to space bairs and go for the time out vs yoshi, because his only way of coverting that doesn't lose to CC or DJ armor is banana>(tech chase) smash. Diddy has no throw followups on yoshi outside of tech chases at low %s (upthrow never combos, dthrow combos if they hold hard in, but if yoshi holds slight DI out he never is in hitstun from Dthrow or any launchers, if diddy goes for a follow up DJ armor upair>big damage). Diddy has to throw for positioning, camp, then banana>smash to kill at like 140. its ****ing garbage.

Shiek is a stalemate MU like peach/samus, but the moment someone gets opened up, they get bodied. if either gets a grab it should be a stock. Taking back center stage vs shiek is impossible unless you give up enough space to get a banana out without getting grabed/dash attacked on reaction. I give shiek the edge because diddy needs a banana to compete, and shiek gets and holds a lot of momentum and stage control when diddy gives up some space in neutral to get one. Also needles. If shiek ever jumps and doesn't land on a platform while diddy has a banana though, it should be a stock. Fun, explosive, neutral/heavy MU. very enjoyable.
Even: (if both have banana or neither have banana)

Tink is a projectile fest where both just chuck **** and move around trying to get openings. Fun MU, a lot of item play, destructive combos.
Wario has similar floaty traits that diddy hates, but his recovery isn't that great and diddy controls neutral. If diddy gets grabbed its a stock though. retreating z drop>bair stuffs out so many of wario's option in the air game. I used to think this was -2, but I used to under estimate how important it was to control the air.
Lucas is similar to the tink MU, its an aggressive stalemate between mobile characters with good projectiles. PK freeze lets lucas contest diddy for amazing horizontal range control. Both characters destroy each other when they get in.
ICs is really jank. Desynchs are hard to get in on, theres a ton of nuances with how items interact with ICs, intentional clanking with blizzard on both sides is big. I think diddy controls and kills nana on split ICs better than fox. Popo has solo Dthrow chaingrabs on diddy though, so one slip up is a guarenteed chaingrab to the ledge>smash, or handoff>kill if nana is alive. popo can't really edgeguard diddy without a hard read, but with nana they can cover nearly every option with proper desynch edgeguards.
+1:
Falco losing to diddy might seem weird to some people, but the jist of it is banana going through lasers lets you punish every one and convert off if it. you just need to hit him once after you covert off the banana to gimp him, so one reaction>throw off stage>one read/good coverage is a stock. If you miss the read, you just need 3/4 more hits till upthrow chaingrabs (banana does 6-8, f/b throw 10, bairs 12-14, fairs 15, chain grabs start at 45~). upthrow>pivot fsmash following DI puts him too far off stage to recover at like 80.

Ness is a camp fest, if diddy gets grabbed he litterally dies (dthrow chain grab) but diddy should't ever get grabbed and punishes every jump. Gnw/Mario/Luigi are basically exactly the same (welcome to Diddy lol). Zard/Roy are horizontal dash dance characters, and diddy beats all of them because he has the best horizontal ranges.
+2:
Basically for all of these, diddy has the better horizontal game, and either combos them really hard, tech chases them to death, or they have no real way to get down on diddy. Not free but advantages.

+3(or better): (no Aura)(if they lose banana in the ditto)
Free AF, they have no way of getting in at all. Lucario is the one exception if he has aura.

Feel like losing MUs but can't quantify the numbers:

Neutral vs snake is super intricate and difficult, hard to kill, easy to die to. Squirtle is a slippery little **** but if you get a knock down its a big damage combo. Jiggs is really hard to hit, but strong nair kills at like, 115
Feel like winning Mus but cant quantify the numbers:

Olimar has a lot of good ways to stall the neutral game. Diddy has a lot of cool MU specific tech though: if you have a pikmin on you, you can z drop a banana to kill the pikmin then AGT it. Punish game is very strong on both sides, new olimar recovery makes killing him even easier. Pikachu is weird. easy to combo/kill/edge guard, hard to pin down and recover vs.

probably even:

Dash dance horizontal characters > tech chase the gameeee

 

[Ripple]

I'd like to correct these for

+3 > +2
+1 > even
-1 > even
-1 > +1
-2 > -3
-1>0

 

[Taytertot]

I think the thing is that most "newer" players tend to Not have the logic to back up their arguments. Logically de-constructing the MU's is great and most people will listen to what you have to say.

We see a lot of X beats Y and then they refuse to talk about both characters tools or are basing it off "only" their experiences. They also tend to overvalue punish games as a metric. Just because a character has a chaingrab on X doesn't make it a bad MU if X has a better neutral. There are lots of factors that go into a MU and most players aren't at a high enough level to understand how they work.

If you can explain MU's in a logical way that weighs both characters options in the Neutral and Punish game. Most people will tend to agree since you're using facts to deduce it. So long as you defend your argument with facts and handle criticism without lashing out most people can be won over.

I agree i just feel that the players who overvalue punish game and arent at a high enough level to understand the weight that every part of a characters toolkit factors in should be listened to and corrected so that those who have lots of improvement to make are learning from those who know rather then left to their poorly constructed assumptions. Though i do understand that that can clutter up threads if left unchecked.

 

[SoulPech]

In speaking of clutter, let's ignore what y'all are doing and get back to the topic, which is to talk about the Matchup Chart!

@ Ripple I remember commentators at Shuffle were saying DDD vs Jiggs was a bad MU for Jigglypuff, but I noticed you have that as a -2 for DDD. Why is that?

 

[Ripple]

because its really hard. I have to overly commit to everything I do, AND I have a ****ty shield that essentially give free up-tilts for you

 

[SoulPech]

if you have waddle dees on the ground for mobility it makes it easier for you to engage with me on the ground and to extend your hitboxes. I have to keep you at bay while getting rid of them.

In the air, it makes me sad because your fast fall speed and the duration on your bair makes it challenging against my bair. Fair also comes out fast and can get a surprise kill on me. Not to mention, when you throw waddle dees in the air, it's in the way of my approach options.

It feels like I have to rely on Rest setups in order to beat DDD. If you're aware of those options, it makes the matchup harder.

Edit: I'm not saying that it's not a horrible matchup for DDD, but I don't think it is as bad as you think.

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

@Sharkz , @Gallo69, Life
Anything to contribute to Pit? He's currently the biggest hole in the chart.

 

[Life]

I appreciate that you value my opinion, though I'm not on the same level of play as the other two.

I'll take a look.

EDIT: There's a guy in my region who thinks Samus/Pit is like 20:80 or something LOL. I think he's nuts, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pit wins this matchup. Keep in mind this is largely theorycraft based on relatively little experience; if Sharkz or Gallo or a notable Samus contradicts me, feel free to go with them.

I can imagine getting down is a nightmare for her in the matchup (and indeed, the guy I mentioned basically ragequit after I juggled him for 100% plus a stock, though he wasn't using every tool she has to mix up her landings--the real Samus in our area I only barely defeated the one time we played). Pit has the mobility to avoid her projectiles, alongside his massively-buffed reflector (though as we all hopefully know, reflectors are more of a convenience than a real answer versus Samus), so I'm not sure what she does for zoning against Pit.

One advantage Samus does have in the matchup is that she's so heavy that Pit can't really combo her out of dthrow before she is able to just nair him. Because of this, I prefer uthrow in the Samus matchup. Combine that with her powerful CC game and I could see her doing decently in neutral, outside of the projectile stuff I mentioned.

In terms of offstage game: the threat of arrows makes bomb jumping a bit of a scary proposition for Samus. If Pit gets to the ledge before she can reel in her tether, she goes into a ton of lag, and if she's far enough offstage to be relying on tether to get back she will probably die to ledge hop back air if she gets hit by it. Lastly, if Pit can force her to land on stage with upB, that should likewise be a hard punish if he gets the back air. That said, usually Pit's gonna be relying on his stellar vertical game for punishes if I'm reading this matchup right, so it comes up less than you might think.

Meanwhile, a Pit that recovers low can be threatened by ledgehop aerials, or by dropping bombs in front of the ledge. Level with the stage, and Pit's asking for missiles or charge shot (he might be able to come down with shield but that puts him low). Arrow harassment will throw them off if they try to go to the ledge, since it'll force them to face front--I've seen a lot of players thrown out of their comfort zone as soon as they get turned around. If Pit's coming high, her best bet is to catch his landings with missiles or CC (he doesn't have aerial answers to CC at all until relatively high percents).

Overall, I suspect this is either a 0 or +1 for Pit matchup, where Samus has a decent advantage in neutral due to CC but gets punished very hard if she gets juggled. Gonna copy-paste this to the Pit board and get their input first, though, so hold on before adding anything to the chart.

 

[Narelex]

Me and Jolteon are going to do a once over on our list soon. I'll give it to you when its done.

 

[PlateProp]

my current opinions on a Diddy MU spread:
-3: ( if you lose banana in the ditto)
-2:
-1:
Even: (if both have banana or neither have banana)
+1:
+2: (with aura)
+3(or better): (no aura)(if they lose banana in the ditto)

Feel like losing MUs but can't quantify the numbers:

Feel like winning Mus but cant quantify the numbers:


probably even:

Diddy is a stagger god

Spoiler: thoughts/discussion, spoilered to reduce clutter

my current opinions on a Diddy MU spread:

My notes are going to be massive simplifications of MUs, and if someone disagrees I'd love to discuss them in detail. I think this is a pretty optimistic MU spread, because a lot of diddy's MUs require him to win like, 12 neutral interactions to take a stock, and he dies in like, 3/4 max (mostly floaties), and while on paper diddy should win every interaction because he's ****ing amazing, people are still human and make wrong calls/get outplayed, and diddy gets bodied when he gets outplayed.

basically, diddy loses to rush down characters he cant pin down or get away from, floaties that he can't kill or combo, characters that stalemate him in neutral, and characters that function incredibly well still when holding an item (normally paired with some of the other traits). He goes even with a select few other super mobile characters/air based characters, ICs is a jank even MU, slightly beats a handful, and bodies or out camps everyone else.
-3: ( if you lose banana in the ditto)

While it might seem like hyperbole, you guys have no idea what its like. Its basically a worse falcon vs 3.0 diddy.
-2:

Put roughly, wolf/fox rush diddy down enough to prevent diddy from pulling/controlling a banana unless diddy already won an interaction, control neutral, diddy's OoS options (glide toss OoS) don't work vs shine pressure, Diddy only has tech chases until around 40% (afterwards he gets chaingrab/platform tech chases). its rough. completely winnable, but rough.

Mewtwo is floaty, hard to edgeguard, harder to kill, difficult to control where he goes in neutral, nearly as mobile, out prioritizes diddy in neutral, and functions incredibly well with an item in hand (DJC z drop, hover aerials, giant glide toss burst movement, etc etc). At a high level of execution and spacing, I feel like m2 has a slight edge in most positions in neutral, and has a far stronger punish game on diddy than the reverse. Completely workable, but an uphill battle.
-1:
Peach/samus never ****ing die, neutral is a stalemate. Diddy is great at getting under peach though, and has the potential to time her out, which is why its only light disadvatage. Samus is similar, its hard as balls to kill her, minimal combos. These MUs are battles of attrition that diddy has a slight disadvantage in.

Sonic is dumb. Yoshi is dumber. Diddy has to space bairs and go for the time out vs yoshi, because his only way of coverting that doesn't lose to CC or DJ armor is banana>(tech chase) smash. Diddy has no throw followups on yoshi outside of tech chases at low %s (upthrow never combos, dthrow combos if they hold hard in, but if yoshi holds slight DI out he never is in hitstun from Dthrow or any launchers, if diddy goes for a follow up DJ armor upair>big damage). Diddy has to throw for positioning, camp, then banana>smash to kill at like 140. its ****ing garbage.

Shiek is a stalemate MU like peach/samus, but the moment someone gets opened up, they get bodied. if either gets a grab it should be a stock. Taking back center stage vs shiek is impossible unless you give up enough space to get a banana out without getting grabed/dash attacked on reaction. I give shiek the edge because diddy needs a banana to compete, and shiek gets and holds a lot of momentum and stage control when diddy gives up some space in neutral to get one. Also needles. If shiek ever jumps and doesn't land on a platform while diddy has a banana though, it should be a stock. Fun, explosive, neutral/heavy MU. very enjoyable.
Even: (if both have banana or neither have banana)

Tink is a projectile fest where both just chuck **** and move around trying to get openings. Fun MU, a lot of item play, destructive combos.
Wario has similar floaty traits that diddy hates, but his recovery isn't that great and diddy controls neutral. If diddy gets grabbed its a stock though. retreating z drop>bair stuffs out so many of wario's option in the air game. I used to think this was -2, but I used to under estimate how important it was to control the air.
Lucas is similar to the tink MU, its an aggressive stalemate between mobile characters with good projectiles. PK freeze lets lucas contest diddy for amazing horizontal range control. Both characters destroy each other when they get in.
ICs is really jank. Desynchs are hard to get in on, theres a ton of nuances with how items interact with ICs, intentional clanking with blizzard on both sides is big. I think diddy controls and kills nana on split ICs better than fox. Popo has solo Dthrow chaingrabs on diddy though, so one slip up is a guarenteed chaingrab to the ledge>smash, or handoff>kill if nana is alive. popo can't really edgeguard diddy without a hard read, but with nana they can cover nearly every option with proper desynch edgeguards.
+1:
Falco losing to diddy might seem weird to some people, but the jist of it is banana going through lasers lets you punish every one and convert off if it. you just need to hit him once after you covert off the banana to gimp him, so one reaction>throw off stage>one read/good coverage is a stock. If you miss the read, you just need 3/4 more hits till upthrow chaingrabs (banana does 6-8, f/b throw 10, bairs 12-14, fairs 15, chain grabs start at 45~). upthrow>pivot fsmash following DI puts him too far off stage to recover at like 80.

Ness is a camp fest, if diddy gets grabbed he litterally dies (dthrow chain grab) but diddy should't ever get grabbed and punishes every jump. Gnw/Mario/Luigi are basically exactly the same (welcome to Diddy lol). Zard/Roy are horizontal dash dance characters, and diddy beats all of them because he has the best horizontal ranges.
+2:
Basically for all of these, diddy has the better horizontal game, and either combos them really hard, tech chases them to death, or they have no real way to get down on diddy. Not free but advantages.

+3(or better): (no Aura)(if they lose banana in the ditto)
Free AF, they have no way of getting in at all. Lucario is the one exception if he has aura.

Feel like losing MUs but can't quantify the numbers:

Neutral vs snake is super intricate and difficult, hard to kill, easy to die to. Squirtle is a slippery little **** but if you get a knock down its a big damage combo. Jiggs is really hard to hit, but strong nair kills at like, 115
Feel like winning Mus but cant quantify the numbers:

Olimar has a lot of good ways to stall the neutral game. Diddy has a lot of cool MU specific tech though: if you have a pikmin on you, you can z drop a banana to kill the pikmin then AGT it. Punish game is very strong on both sides, new olimar recovery makes killing him even easier. Pikachu is weird. easy to combo/kill/edge guard, hard to pin down and recover vs.

probably even:

Dash dance horizontal characters > tech chase the gameeee

Diddy definantly at least minus 1 against squirtle, Squirtle can do more things with the banana cause op grounded glide toss, and some other crap I think gravy said about him only neing able to punish bubble with a perfect ground glide toss

If Squirtle takes the nanner Diddy is basically screwed, and Squirtle's Wavedash means he can play keepaway if he wants. If they're good, they can also catch peanuts giving yet another option for glide tosses into aquaravioli ****

 

[Soft Serve]

Diddy definantly at least minus 1 against squirtle, Squirtle can do more things with the banana cause op grounded glide toss, and some other crap I think gravy said about him only neing able to punish bubble with a perfect ground glide toss

If Squirtle takes the nanner Diddy is basically screwed, and Squirtle's Wavedash means he can play keepaway if he wants. If they're good, they can also catch peanuts giving yet another option for glide tosses into aquaravioli ****

pretty sure it was max distance cross up bubble that is punishable by only glide toss OoS, pretty sure you can wd OoS and grab grounded bubble at max range as well

neutral can definitely be a struggle vs squirtman but if you land one grab thats soooooo much damage and its not like squirtle has a breeze in neutral either. peanuts are pretty much useless in the MU other than soul fist and edgeguards, hes too small to pin him down with peanut camping.

really difficult MU becuase squirtle is impossible to hit, but its not that bad of a MU. agreed -1, or something similar to that

 

[tasteless gentleman]

Where is bowser's match up spread? I see everyone put bowser as easy win on their own spread but yet to actually see his own.

 

[Narelex]

Where is bowser's match up spread? I see everyone put bowser as easy win on their own spread but yet to actually see his own.

His is back from 3.6b so its highly inaccurate atm. Basically no Bowser mains have contributed so it's incorrect atm.

 

[tasteless gentleman]

Double Post

 

[tasteless gentleman]

60:40
A rest punish is a fully charged forward smash, kills at 0% (36% if you count the actual hit)

His is back from 3.6b so its highly inaccurate atm. Basically no Bowser mains have contributed so it's incorrect atm.

Ill get on that asap. Just keep in mind, im slightly biased in the belief that bowser beats like 4% of the cast

 

[Kneato]

His is back from 3.6b so its highly inaccurate atm. Basically no Bowser mains have contributed so it's incorrect atm.

Let's get @Odds_ to weigh in on this.

 

[tasteless gentleman]

Let's get @Odds_ to weigh in on this.

I can agree with this if me, odds, cmart, tuba, master WGS and american bowser all get around a camp fire and discuss match ups. I mean i may be slightly biased but i wont deny a good or bad match up.

 

[eideeiit]

We can do without one of those kappa(?)

But really, I'd give it more time before coming up with MU spreads. Especially for a MU knowledge heavy char like Bowser. There's no hurry is there? It's better to have empty slots as opposed to misinformation spreading.