Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia- Fish

[th3kuzinator]

Can we wait until I get some reads first? Once I decide who I think is mafia/SK, then you can lynch me and use my reads.

OS, does this give you a read on BSL?

 

[th3kuzinator]

then why'd you unvote him, kevmo? you were already voting him? and can i get your read on BSL as well?

 

[Overswarm]

OS, does this give you a read on BSL?

One data point does not a read make.

Because this kingmaker thing seems like it will more less not fly, I can point this out:

This is what I mean by practicality of Kingmaker. I can't tell which is better.

I'm going to go ahead and back OS up on the math thing.

If I still get to play mafia, but we have a better chance at winning, then I'm game.

Now, what I don't know, is whether or not the math is actually correct or if it's practical to play this way. I don't know how people work, nor do I know mafia theory. I tried to do setup math once in HxH and it wasn't even close to being right.

I'm afraid I can't weigh in on whether or not it's realistically beneficial to play this like a Kingmaker.





What I do want to know, is who gets to be the kingmaker? I feel like trying to decide that is going to take a lot of time and deliberation. Not specifically a bad thing inherently, but it takes away from scumhunting time, making it bad.

Read up above.

What he just said was "I am for it entirely if it is good, but is it bad, I don't know, I'm not sure, can someone else tell me". Having an opinion without having an opinion and waiting for others to make the decision for you? That's stuff you don't let a townie do. That's called "playing the field".

You ever have a girlfriend or mom or someone who says "oh you don't have to get anything for me for christmas" or "just your company is all I want"?

You know how this makes them sound good until you realize on christmas day that when you didn't get them a present they would flip their **** if they didn't get a present?

It's an attempt at gaining impunity. They feel they can win either way; either they are "above" the gift giving of xmas or you're awful for not knowing to get your girlfriend a present, that kind of thing. Emotional sabotage and all that.

People in mafia do this all the time as both alignments, but its incredibly helpful to scum. Politicians do it all the time too, I'm sure you've seen it. Where they simultaneously take both sides of the issue, or constantly reiterate their unease with an idea when they are willing to just straight up accept an idea?

Like you watch Obama's statements on gay marriage? Tentative as hell for a long, long time until other people let him knew it was okay. Not cool.


BSL says he's for the Kingmaker setup if it gives us a better chance to win, but doesn't express approval by saying he doesn't know if it does despite the math being laid out for him.

Duh. What idiot would say "that gives us a better chance at a win, no way"? Everyone would be for winning.

BSL:

Who would you pick right now to be king if we were doing kingmaker? Why would you pick them?

 

[KevinM]

LOL forgot my vote on Zen again

Vote Zen

Good looking out TEHKUZ.


Thoughts on BSL... hmmmmmm

Town!

Eww while I reread something stuck out to me

Real talk kevmo. I cant have you givin os even the slightest bit of influence. even if ur doin it just to read him. id prefer os lynched as soon as possible. and ur question does no good. u know os is all about that mechanics talk and ur givin him something to fluff about. pretty weird honestly i dont know wut ur doin

I know I made like a small comment on this earlier but its time to pull it out

We're gonna need to talk about this, why would you want to lynch one of the better players in the game ASAP before he's made a post?

What do you have to be worried about as a townie?

Why are you worried about a good player having influence?

What's your angle here? Whats your motivation?

Call MIAs

 

[KevinM]

Ehh to be honest OS I've seen so many townies on this site use that angle of "I'm somewhat for it but it depends" because they're afraid of getting lynched.

SWF Townies always about self preservation, THEY AIN'T FINNA TO WIN IT WITH THEY BODIES

 

[KevinM]

I only have seven posts?

Quick someone accuse me of coasting!

 

[Ramen King]

lol better players. I consider both you and OS liabilities.

 

[th3kuzinator]

lol leave it to os to get overly metaphorical but i gotchu i gotchu

but kevmo, BSL clearly isn't afraid of getting lynched! see:

Can we wait until I get some reads first? Once I decide who I think is mafia/SK, then you can lynch me and use my reads.

now, where is this town read coming from? also are you down to lynch BW because of liability or because you think he's scummy?

zen i still want your read on os!

 

[Overswarm]

lol better players. I consider both you and OS liabilities.

Of course you do.

 

[th3kuzinator]

also stop coasting kevmo!

 

[KevinM]

also stop coasting kevmo!

ty bby knew I could count on you

lol better players. I consider both you and OS liabilities.

dum

lol leave it to os to get overly metaphorical but i gotchu i gotchu

but kevmo, BSL clearly isn't afraid of getting lynched! see:



now, where is this town read coming from? also are you down to lynch BW because of liability or because you think he's scummy?

zen i still want your read on os!

Town read coming from BSL being a homie? Idk I guess I'm just not seeing it. Read him twice got him as town then I did this like ****in ISO thing all the cool kids were doing had him as town. Did a blood test found he wasn't the father that puts him as town.

BW? I just hate his slot in most games because he plays off his emotions and won't follow logical lynches because another player made him angry. Hey if he's improved I'll leave him be I swear! I won't touch him! I'm a ****ing HONOR GUARD

 

[Ramen King]

dum

Yet you're the one targeting an obv town player.

I've never seen you or OS actually play a solid town game. Don't get me wrong, you're both excellent scum players, but as far as scum hunting goes, I just haven't seen it. OS has admitted that reading people isn't one of his strongest suits. He's great at calculating mechanics and all that though.

@kuz not yet I haven't read his posts yet

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Kuz, let me dissect the walls OS has given out and I'll get back to you.

 

[BSL]

Who would you pick right now to be king if we were doing kingmaker? Why would you pick them?

Hmm... Soup. He's the only person at this point that I am sure is town.

 

[BSL]

**** guys, ignore that scumslip.


I know I'm town, too, I just didn't consider myself a choice. Still Soup even though I am selectable. If I had a gun, I'd shoot BW.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

BSL, a couple of pages ago you were cliaming that you were joking about Badwolf. Now you would shoot him? I don't recall you ever changing your stance into a serious one, even from skimming.

Also unvote

 

[BSL]

Still joking.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Vote: BS L

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

My vote on Badwolf was kind of legitimate in a sense but BSL is just flailing on the issue of Badwolf and I don't like it. His attitude in general comes off as fake, especially he's trying to joke about certain things comparative to others. There is no incentive to discern an alignment from either standpoint and he's clinging to badwolf now knowing this.

 

[BSL]

I'm attempting to pressure BW. I picked him randomly from a list (using a series of coinflips), and I am trying to bait him into thinking I'm serious.

RVS stuff.

 

[BSL]

Also, this is what you call flailing?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

soup please answer that too

os lets not turn this into kingmaker

Agree.

I'm going to go ahead and back OS up on the math thing.

If I still get to play mafia, but we have a better chance at winning, then I'm game.

Now, what I don't know, is whether or not the math is actually correct or if it's practical to play this way. I don't know how people work, nor do I know mafia theory. I tried to do setup math once in HxH and it wasn't even close to being right.

I'm afraid I can't weigh in on whether or not it's realistically beneficial to play this like a Kingmaker.





What I do want to know, is who gets to be the kingmaker? I feel like trying to decide that is going to take a lot of time and deliberation. Not specifically a bad thing inherently, but it takes away from scumhunting time, making it bad.

The way that I see Kingmaker going down.

Scum-Kingmaker:
Picks scum mate the entire time while town flails around trying to hit the people that are untouchable.

Town-Kingmaker:
Somewhat better however still only relying on their reads and I don't like trusting someone that much. It's putting the power into one person's hands and it really doesn't sit right with my ideas.

TL;DR: I wanna vote for the lynch.

**** guys, ignore that scumslip.


I know I'm town, too, I just didn't consider myself a choice. Still Soup even though I am selectable. If I had a gun, I'd shoot BW.

I'm attempting to pressure BW. I picked him randomly from a list (using a series of coinflips), and I am trying to bait him into thinking I'm serious.

RVS stuff.

Why all the BW hate? I've not done anything this whole time really.

 

[BSL]

Did you read the second post you quoted? My answer is right there.

 

[BSL]

And the kingmaker thing, from my understanding we aren't picking a kingmaker for the game, we're picking a king daily.

 

[th3kuzinator]

why the town read on soup, bsl?

 

[BSL]

Vibes + it doesn't match the scumSoup meta that I have.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

So we'd vote for a king who would then kill our most voted for? Roundabout way ftw?

 

[BSL]

No, we'd vote for a king who would then kill whomever he pleased, while taking into consideration who the rest want dead.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

I really don't like that. I want to keep my power of voice.

 

[Overswarm]

I really don't like that. I want to keep my power of voice.

We all do, but our own personal voice doesn't matter. All that matters is the serial killer's voice until the SK is dead. If someone who isn't the SK is the kingmaker that is one less town that can't be lynched.

Thinking more on it, I don't understand why people haven't done Kingmaker for Day 1 every game. You get a statistically higher chance of killing scum, you can vote someone who is lurking to be King and make them own up to their kill, and get more discussion than just random votes.

But either way, the only way kingmaker works is if everyone does it, otherwise its just a hardbody crew.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Okay, I'm here. I've only skimmed because I've got work to do but obligatory mechanics post you guys seem to love so much:

There are 9 players, with 6 town. This gives a 66% chance of lynching town.

After the first lynch and subsequent night kill (assuming town) we will have 7 players with 4 town. This gives a 57% chance of lynching town.

After the next lynch and subsequent night kill (assuming town) we will have 5 players with 2 town. This gives a 40% chance of lynching town, and is effectively lylo.

This is obvious but it points out something important: scum, meaning mafia and the SK, can literally leave lynches up to chance and have a large chance at winning.

Strategy for the mafia is simple. They should cooperate every Night and focus on staying in the background so they don't get lynched, leaving the "compete" option only for when there is a small number of players left and they can effectively guess the night kill.

While it is tempting for the mafia to agree to cooperate but instead compete every night, this done by both parties means that there is a 22%, to 29%, to 40% chance of both scum dying. In other words, if both are stupid enough to choose compete then they have a 1 in 3 chance of losing entirely due to random chance at any stage in the game, give or take a little. This is assuming random night kills; this can change based on the SK's patterns.

The optimal strategy for an individual mafia member would be to say they will "cooperate" when they really say "compete", but this is ONLY the case when their PARTNER is believed to be a prominent night kill target.

If a mafia members believe that THEY THEMSELVES are a prominent night kill target, their best option is still "cooperate" as it is the most likely to make them bulletproof; if their teammate is going to choose compete, there is nothing that the mafia member can do to make themselves bulletproof.

This means the default status for mafia not under night kill suspicion is "cooperate".

This strategy again changes if one of the teammates is considered a prominent lynch candidate. If mafia is lynched, this means the other mafia member is boned. As far as we know they can't win with only one mafia member unless they get to a 3 man lylo and the SK and mafia work together to lynch a townie; highly unlikely. This means that if someone thinks their teammate is weak and will get lynched and NOT night killed, the best option for that individual mafia member would be to say "compete" on the sheer chance that it could occur. While it is possible the compete option could get them killed, that individual mafia member's chance of winning is incredibly slim if their teammate gets lynched so they should compete as many times as possible the moment they believe their teammate will be lynched as their overall winning chance is the same in this case.


Now that we've got our head screwed on straight for all of that, know this:

It is in town's best interest for both mafia to survive and cooperate, but not for the reasons you think.

In other words, if someone claims mafia we should let them live until later in the game. This will allow for a one in three chance of the SK missing his shot. With at least 4 phases for town, it can be assumed that the SK will miss a shot due to BP, statistically speaking. To WHO is hard to predict, but it'll happen.

If the SK misses a shot on N1 for example:

D1- 9
D2 - 8
D3 - 6
D4 -4 (lylo)

If the SK doesn't miss a shot on N1:

D1 - 9
D2 - 7
D3 - 5
D4 -3 (lylo)


however

With "No Lynch" we can create a mathematical certainty of an extra Day phase if the SK misses his shot.

D1 - 9
D2 - 8
D3 - 6
D4 -4 (NO LYNCH)
D5 - 3 (lylo)

But guess what? In both scenarios we get 4 opportunities to catch mafia and the SK, meaning if the SK doesn't kill mafia we have to get 3/4 lynches correct. Assuming a Day One mislynch as the standard, this means that we have to hit at 100% accuracy. That's bad, but crazier odds have been overcome (Liar game, yeahyuhz).

So why keep mafia around and have them cooperate?

There's one last variable:

D1- 9
D2 - 8 (misses shot)
D3 - 5 (discovers scum, kills them both)
D4 -3 (lylo)


or

D1 - 9
D2 -7
D3 - 4 (discover scum, kills them both, No Lynch)
D4- 3 (assuming scum kills)


The nightmare scenario for town is that we mislynch today, mislynch tomorrow, and then it's down to 4 players. We can no lynch and get down to 3, but that's 'bout the best we can do and that's only IF the SK kills (stalemate, technically).

So strategy time:

In addition to that, if the SK hits a mafia member it is then obvious to the SK that mafia is cooperating in addition to who mafia is. SK will want that mafia member lynched, so be very cognizant of people who start a day or use an opportunity to push a lynch on someone heavily only to have them flip mafia. This makes them more likely to be SK than town.

I repeat: if there is no Night Kill and then someone miraculously lynches a mafia member out of nowhere the next day, that person likely has inside info and is the serial killer.

Think of it this way:

3 man lylo between 2 mafia and SK means SK loses as mafia wins ties. This means a 4 man lylo between town, mafia, mafia, SK will result in a mafia win unless mafia is lynched and the SK kills the other mafia. There shouldn't be any claim shenanigans at the end as it is in everyone's best interest this game to claim mafia (even town!) as it makes you less of a lynch target and more of a night kill target, but town being hit by a NKill instead of mafia is preferrable to town given the possibility of a 3 Day phase game, at least early on.

Because of all this, SK can't give up trying to kill mafia. So if he misses one NKill, he's more likely to miss another one. It isn't sheer odds anymore because he wants to kill that scum. That means he's going to want a lynch if he can. Knowing the prisoners dilemma, it means if Mafia knows who was targeted it is in the best interest to compete if it was their teammate which means the SK is more likely to attack that same guy again, but the SK doesn't want to miss two kills in a row so he will go for a lynch.



TL;DR

1) All claims should be "mafia", so claiming is irrelevant. If you are forced to claim, claim mafia. Town claiming mafia, being left alive, then night killed is better than accidentally losing two mafia members. If you say "no that is horrible" then congratulations, now everyone is forced to claim town and we have no way of directing the SK's nkill. It isn't a boon to mafia for town to claim mafia anymore than it is a boon for town for mafia to claim town. The SK has his own prisoners dilemma when someone claims mafia, everyone claiming town just means the only people who benefit from claiming town are mafia. Town is who benefits by claiming mafia but only if mafia aren't lynched.

But because claims are irrelevant that won't matter, but it's a fun thought exercise all the same.

2) The SK really wants to lynch mafia. Town wants to lynch the SK. Enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that, we don't want to hunt mafia we want to hunt the serial killer.

3) Mafia should always cooperate unless they believe strongly that their teammate will be a night kill target, in which case they will inevitably both compete which makes cooperation the best choice anyway



Sorry if this was confusing, but this game is a fun logic puzzle. Not as fun as liar game mafia, but fun.

Finding the SK or mafia is going to be the same as other games, so no difference there. Only major difference is that mafia has no reason to distance whatsoever. They don't want to announce anything, but claiming a strong defense for their teammate doesn't put them in any extra danger because if one of them are lynched they will likely both lose so it's an all-or-nothing thing.

The SK's best chance of winning is making himself a strong town force as mafia have no NKill and this makes it the least likely for him to be lynched. A weak SK will probably hide in the background, but I'd imagine the majority of this game would simply try to take control.

This means town's best strategy at finding a weak SK is to lynch inactives while the best strategy to find a strong SK is to lynch prominent town players. For the SK, it is best to kill the opposite of how he is playing so he isn't sticking out like a sore thumb; this does make inactive SK a bit stronger as it'll make lylo a bit easier for the SK, but he still would have a weaker early game and would not control if mafia was lynched (which he has to).

KevinM actually has the best strategy in the game so far in that buddying with someone is the best way to prevent you getting NKilled.

1) Mafia won't openly buddy with their partner, so if you openly buddy with someone it makes it seem less likely you are mafia

2) If you buddy with someone openly and are antagonistic towards someone else and you survive and your buddy survives but those antagonistic towards you die, it is incredibly likely that one of those two could be considered the Serial Killer if viewed at a banal level.

While very low-level thinking, the SK would want to avoid suspicion at all costs and probably wouldn't dare to attack their direct competitor. I guess that means the most townie players in this game are going to be mafia and the Serial Killer.


There's more to all this, but I think you guys got the gist. Lots of WIFOM in this game. LEGITIMATE WIFOM for once.


I'll get to the actual thread later today. This post isn't really for discussion as most of it is pretty cut and dry; disagreeing with it gives the SK more information so... I wouldn't say anything. If you're town and you want to say town should claim town or something, just let it slide and we might get lucky and mafia will claim mafia, get shot at, and be bulletproof.

Did not proofread this sorry for any errors

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Gorf, you are the most aloof. If you had to pick someone to choose as King right now with no other posts, who would you pick assuming your one primary goal is to not pick the Serial Killer.

Oof, I'm aloof. I honestly haven't read a thing of your analysis because I'm being rushed off of the computer, but off of the basis that I actually WILL read your post (hint: yes I will), I'd have to say Kevin.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

I'm going to go ahead and back OS up on the math thing.

If I still get to play mafia, but we have a better chance at winning, then I'm game.

Now, what I don't know, is whether or not the math is actually correct or if it's practical to play this way. I don't know how people work, nor do I know mafia theory. I tried to do setup math once in HxH and it wasn't even close to being right.

I'm afraid I can't weigh in on whether or not it's realistically beneficial to play this like a Kingmaker.





What I do want to know, is who gets to be the kingmaker? I feel like trying to decide that is going to take a lot of time and deliberation. Not specifically a bad thing inherently, but it takes away from scumhunting time, making it bad.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Can we wait until I get some reads first? Once I decide who I think is mafia/SK, then you can lynch me and use my reads.

I'm sorry, I forgot you were town and that we benefit from you living! You're right, votes should steer clear from you

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

**** guys, ignore that scumslip.


I know I'm town, too, I just didn't consider myself a choice. Still Soup even though I am selectable. If I had a gun, I'd shoot BW.

BSL how often have you been playing? If I remember well you used to never play. Serious question.

 

[Ramen King]

What is a game you think he did well as scum? I am interested.

Deadpool Mafia & Simpsons mafia. & Reincarnation Mafia.

Zen, how do you feel about people protecting others? Is this scum behavior?

You mean like defending a town read? It could go either way. Sometimes scum defend town for town credit. Sometimes town defends a town read because they are a town read. Not often do scum defend their scum mate, but I think experienced players can get away with it.

I'm unsure on this at the moment. I do agree that open information isn't as beneficial to scum but I am not yet currently of the mind that we should all have our cards on the table 24/7. Interested in hearing the logic behind this though, I could agree.

First I need to note that your proposal that we need to let mafia live is incredibly wrong. And claiming mafia is incredibly anti-town. As you said, we want SK to kill mafia and the SK wants to kill mafia as soon as possible. So he aint going to be targeting townies especially since he himself will want to play townie. Therefore there's no repercussion in having our town reads out on the table. In fact, it's beneficial as it gives SK a greater idea of where to look for scum. The stuff you proposed is so inefficient I don't even.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and think that no one would believe that I'm a brainless player who doesn't look at intentions.

I'm pretty sure this is a reality. Both supported by the most recent games you have been in: Liar Game & Celebrity. You only see numbers. You don't realize that there are variables in this game that can't be controlled and it's why you almost lost town the game in Celebrity when J, who doesn't look at numbers but rather at intent was right on. Same in liar game, you did not put forth any ounce of scum hunting there. It was all numbers to you. You make games into a game of chance. Liar Game just happened to go in your favor. But had not other players been able to read into intentions and make you the last person to be lynched, the game would have been lost.

Again with your reasoning in #92. It's just so inefficient and decreases towns chance of winning. I'm more confident in players such as myself, gorf, and kuz, than trying to play this game on the random probability. Your plans always assume that the game is played in randomness, but that is not the case. You ignore the human variable which is something that can't be measured.

And now you want to discredit the Kingmaker set-up under the basis of...?

wut? that would be Kuz you're referring to.

 

[BSL]

BSL how often have you been playing? If I remember well you used to never play. Serious question.

I stopped playing a long time ago due to frustration, but I'm giving mafia a second chance.

Since I came back, I've replaced into HunterxHunter, hydra'd with Xonar in LoL uPick as RainbowFingers, and then this game.

 

[Overswarm]

First I need to note that your proposal that we need to let mafia live is incredibly wrong. And claiming mafia is incredibly anti-town. As you said, we want SK to kill mafia and the SK wants to kill mafia as soon as possible. So he aint going to be targeting townies especially since he himself will want to play townie. Therefore there's no repercussion in having our town reads out on the table. In fact, it's beneficial as it gives SK a greater idea of where to look for scum. The stuff you proposed is so inefficient I don't even.

We don't want SK to kill mafia until later and we only want the SK to attack mafia if they are going to be bulletproof. It'd be nice if we had a read later on and he killed both mafia, but if he did it toNight we'd be boned.

Again with your reasoning in #92. It's just so inefficient and decreases towns chance of winning. I'm more confident in players such as myself, gorf, and kuz, than trying to play this game on the random probability. Your plans always assume that the game is played in randomness, but that is not the case. You ignore the human variable which is something that can't be measured.

I never ignore the human variable. I just know that there isn't a single mafia player here that can legitimately find good scum. I've done the math, people have "finding scum" rates that line up with the statistical probability they would have if they chose randomly.

When people catch scum legitimately, they don't do it with "vibes" or "bad feelings". They do it with questioning, reasoning, and logic. It can be explained. If it can't be explained it's just random chance.

 

[Overswarm]

wut? that would be Kuz you're referring to.

So you're for Kingmaker?

 

[KevinM]

OS who do you make king today?