Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia- Fish

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Why is it lame?

Because I really wanted to try out the scum mechanic and get an easy win. Instead I'm going have to work for it. Honestly this game can go by pretty quickly if the other member wants to try and win by himself.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Right so that happened.

Vote: Zen

He can die for all I care right now.

Your vote is more on the side of policy than legitimate. When BSL explained his first post to you, why did you act indifferent towards it? The only thing you've hinted at is disliking his first post.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

how are you july?

soup can you read os or kevmo?

badwolf can you tell me about your relationship with my little pony?

zen lets kick it as homies

im makin a sandwitch in the kitchen and, take a guess, its bologna

Yeah. I'm pretty confident on my abilities on both, and it's not like I play a bias against them.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I'd say my town play is pretty solid but it's dependent on the game and what's going on. I don't feel I've ever been dead wrong about my reads by the time of endgame but it's a rollercoaster depending on how the game is going. Sometimes I get it early in the game, sometimes in the late. Sometimes I die before I can even do anything.

Also, In my two MvPs me and marshy lynched every town 3 days consecutively back to back together and in simpsons we pegged the indy and I carried my lurking partner into an alpha on ranmaru at lylo where everyone read me as town.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Get ready to sign up for a new game, then.

Zen's posting isn't that bad.

We've already got 2 votes for you on policy, so let's keep 'em coming. Almost halfway there.

vote: BSL

I mean come on...

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Vote: BSL

Gorf join me

LOOOOOL yes!

 

[KevinM]

Real talk kevmo. I cant have you givin os even the slightest bit of influence. even if ur doin it just to read him. id prefer os lynched as soon as possible. and ur question does no good. u know os is all about that mechanics talk and ur givin him something to fluff about. pretty weird honestly i dont know wut ur doin


also the nature of this game allows full reads list and expressing town reads to be beneficial and protown so id appreciate it if everyone keeps their reads pretty open and updated frequently

OS is all about the mechanics talk and if there is anyone I would trust to break a game open that is possible to break it would be OS. Hell if he figures out the proper strategy to break a game open why would you be so worried about it?

Vote Zen

Why are you trying to discredit my line of questioning before OS has even answered, what if his answer gives us something to work with?

The second part of this post hurts because its almost like I want to use the fallacy of too townie, but I hate using it... but hooftie.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

badwolf can you tell me about your relationship with my little pony?

Gay Lovers.

Haha it's just an entrance post. I would like you to answer my questions though? Especially why the town role is lame? You just claimed in your post after this that you're happy with being town, so I don't understand your pregame post.

BW
BSL
July

How long have each of you worked as a guard?

Longer than you've been alive 0.0

Your vote is more on the side of policy than legitimate. When BSL explained his first post to you, why did you act indifferent towards it? The only thing you've hinted at is disliking his first post.

Restate this a different way please. I'm not sure of what you are asking me.

:rainbowdash:

 

[th3kuzinator]

@bw: no i mean how did you get into watching it? im just curious

kevmeeeezy missed you bro.

then, soup, why aren't you doing something about it? what are you waitin' for...

Spoiler

as we go tooowaaards the lightt

 

[Ramen King]

OS is all about the mechanics talk and if there is anyone I would trust to break a game open that is possible to break it would be OS. Hell if he figures out the proper strategy to break a game open why would you be so worried about it?

Vote Zen

Why are you trying to discredit my line of questioning before OS has even answered, what if his answer gives us something to work with?

The second part of this post hurts because its almost like I want to use the fallacy of too townie, but I hate using it... but hooftie.

Haha breaking the game? There's no way to break it. We break it by lynching scum. Mechanic talk is all but fluff, giving people an excuse to post when really they are contributing nothing towards finding scum. His answer would give us nothing to work with. It's all distraction. You are a distraction. OS is a distraction.


lol at the last line.

 

[BSL]

I actually like this vote more than you know. Badwolf has already been riled up enough for me not to care for this progress any further. BSL, were you serious in your voting on Badwolf or do you have an ulterior motive behind it?

Nah, I was just trying to do something in RVS. It's the first time I've been in RVS since I stopped playing, and I wanted to see if I could push some of BW's buttons and get a reaction. I liked his response.

 

[Overswarm]

Okay, I'm here. I've only skimmed because I've got work to do but obligatory mechanics post you guys seem to love so much:

There are 9 players, with 6 town. This gives a 66% chance of lynching town.

After the first lynch and subsequent night kill (assuming town) we will have 7 players with 4 town. This gives a 57% chance of lynching town.

After the next lynch and subsequent night kill (assuming town) we will have 5 players with 2 town. This gives a 40% chance of lynching town, and is effectively lylo.

This is obvious but it points out something important: scum, meaning mafia and the SK, can literally leave lynches up to chance and have a large chance at winning.

Strategy for the mafia is simple. They should cooperate every Night and focus on staying in the background so they don't get lynched, leaving the "compete" option only for when there is a small number of players left and they can effectively guess the night kill.

While it is tempting for the mafia to agree to cooperate but instead compete every night, this done by both parties means that there is a 22%, to 29%, to 40% chance of both scum dying. In other words, if both are stupid enough to choose compete then they have a 1 in 3 chance of losing entirely due to random chance at any stage in the game, give or take a little. This is assuming random night kills; this can change based on the SK's patterns.

The optimal strategy for an individual mafia member would be to say they will "cooperate" when they really say "compete", but this is ONLY the case when their PARTNER is believed to be a prominent night kill target.

If a mafia members believe that THEY THEMSELVES are a prominent night kill target, their best option is still "cooperate" as it is the most likely to make them bulletproof; if their teammate is going to choose compete, there is nothing that the mafia member can do to make themselves bulletproof.

This means the default status for mafia not under night kill suspicion is "cooperate".

This strategy again changes if one of the teammates is considered a prominent lynch candidate. If mafia is lynched, this means the other mafia member is boned. As far as we know they can't win with only one mafia member unless they get to a 3 man lylo and the SK and mafia work together to lynch a townie; highly unlikely. This means that if someone thinks their teammate is weak and will get lynched and NOT night killed, the best option for that individual mafia member would be to say "compete" on the sheer chance that it could occur. While it is possible the compete option could get them killed, that individual mafia member's chance of winning is incredibly slim if their teammate gets lynched so they should compete as many times as possible the moment they believe their teammate will be lynched as their overall winning chance is the same in this case.


Now that we've got our head screwed on straight for all of that, know this:

It is in town's best interest for both mafia to survive and cooperate, but not for the reasons you think.

In other words, if someone claims mafia we should let them live until later in the game. This will allow for a one in three chance of the SK missing his shot. With at least 4 phases for town, it can be assumed that the SK will miss a shot due to BP, statistically speaking. To WHO is hard to predict, but it'll happen.

If the SK misses a shot on N1 for example:

D1- 9
D2 - 8
D3 - 6
D4 -4 (lylo)

If the SK doesn't miss a shot on N1:

D1 - 9
D2 - 7
D3 - 5
D4 -3 (lylo)


however

With "No Lynch" we can create a mathematical certainty of an extra Day phase if the SK misses his shot.

D1 - 9
D2 - 8
D3 - 6
D4 -4 (NO LYNCH)
D5 - 3 (lylo)

But guess what? In both scenarios we get 4 opportunities to catch mafia and the SK, meaning if the SK doesn't kill mafia we have to get 3/4 lynches correct. Assuming a Day One mislynch as the standard, this means that we have to hit at 100% accuracy. That's bad, but crazier odds have been overcome (Liar game, yeahyuhz).

So why keep mafia around and have them cooperate?

There's one last variable:

D1- 9
D2 - 8 (misses shot)
D3 - 5 (discovers scum, kills them both)
D4 -3 (lylo)


or

D1 - 9
D2 -7
D3 - 4 (discover scum, kills them both, No Lynch)
D4- 3 (assuming scum kills)


The nightmare scenario for town is that we mislynch today, mislynch tomorrow, and then it's down to 4 players. We can no lynch and get down to 3, but that's 'bout the best we can do and that's only IF the SK kills (stalemate, technically).

So strategy time:

In addition to that, if the SK hits a mafia member it is then obvious to the SK that mafia is cooperating in addition to who mafia is. SK will want that mafia member lynched, so be very cognizant of people who start a day or use an opportunity to push a lynch on someone heavily only to have them flip mafia. This makes them more likely to be SK than town.

I repeat: if there is no Night Kill and then someone miraculously lynches a mafia member out of nowhere the next day, that person likely has inside info and is the serial killer.

Think of it this way:

3 man lylo between 2 mafia and SK means SK loses as mafia wins ties. This means a 4 man lylo between town, mafia, mafia, SK will result in a mafia win unless mafia is lynched and the SK kills the other mafia. There shouldn't be any claim shenanigans at the end as it is in everyone's best interest this game to claim mafia (even town!) as it makes you less of a lynch target and more of a night kill target, but town being hit by a NKill instead of mafia is preferrable to town given the possibility of a 3 Day phase game, at least early on.

Because of all this, SK can't give up trying to kill mafia. So if he misses one NKill, he's more likely to miss another one. It isn't sheer odds anymore because he wants to kill that scum. That means he's going to want a lynch if he can. Knowing the prisoners dilemma, it means if Mafia knows who was targeted it is in the best interest to compete if it was their teammate which means the SK is more likely to attack that same guy again, but the SK doesn't want to miss two kills in a row so he will go for a lynch.



TL;DR

1) All claims should be "mafia", so claiming is irrelevant. If you are forced to claim, claim mafia. Town claiming mafia, being left alive, then night killed is better than accidentally losing two mafia members. If you say "no that is horrible" then congratulations, now everyone is forced to claim town and we have no way of directing the SK's nkill. It isn't a boon to mafia for town to claim mafia anymore than it is a boon for town for mafia to claim town. The SK has his own prisoners dilemma when someone claims mafia, everyone claiming town just means the only people who benefit from claiming town are mafia. Town is who benefits by claiming mafia but only if mafia aren't lynched.

But because claims are irrelevant that won't matter, but it's a fun thought exercise all the same.

2) The SK really wants to lynch mafia. Town wants to lynch the SK. Enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that, we don't want to hunt mafia we want to hunt the serial killer.

3) Mafia should always cooperate unless they believe strongly that their teammate will be a night kill target, in which case they will inevitably both compete which makes cooperation the best choice anyway



Sorry if this was confusing, but this game is a fun logic puzzle. Not as fun as liar game mafia, but fun.

Finding the SK or mafia is going to be the same as other games, so no difference there. Only major difference is that mafia has no reason to distance whatsoever. They don't want to announce anything, but claiming a strong defense for their teammate doesn't put them in any extra danger because if one of them are lynched they will likely both lose so it's an all-or-nothing thing.

The SK's best chance of winning is making himself a strong town force as mafia have no NKill and this makes it the least likely for him to be lynched. A weak SK will probably hide in the background, but I'd imagine the majority of this game would simply try to take control.

This means town's best strategy at finding a weak SK is to lynch inactives while the best strategy to find a strong SK is to lynch prominent town players. For the SK, it is best to kill the opposite of how he is playing so he isn't sticking out like a sore thumb; this does make inactive SK a bit stronger as it'll make lylo a bit easier for the SK, but he still would have a weaker early game and would not control if mafia was lynched (which he has to).

KevinM actually has the best strategy in the game so far in that buddying with someone is the best way to prevent you getting NKilled.

1) Mafia won't openly buddy with their partner, so if you openly buddy with someone it makes it seem less likely you are mafia

2) If you buddy with someone openly and are antagonistic towards someone else and you survive and your buddy survives but those antagonistic towards you die, it is incredibly likely that one of those two could be considered the Serial Killer if viewed at a banal level.

While very low-level thinking, the SK would want to avoid suspicion at all costs and probably wouldn't dare to attack their direct competitor. I guess that means the most townie players in this game are going to be mafia and the Serial Killer.


There's more to all this, but I think you guys got the gist. Lots of WIFOM in this game. LEGITIMATE WIFOM for once.


I'll get to the actual thread later today. This post isn't really for discussion as most of it is pretty cut and dry; disagreeing with it gives the SK more information so... I wouldn't say anything. If you're town and you want to say town should claim town or something, just let it slide and we might get lucky and mafia will claim mafia, get shot at, and be bulletproof.

Did not proofread this sorry for any errors

 

[Ramen King]

Kuz: Soup is town. 100% not mafia. I don't reckon indy either, but that should become apparent later on if I am wrong.

Because I really wanted to try out the scum mechanic and get an easy win. Instead I'm going have to work for it. Honestly this game can go by pretty quickly if the other member wants to try and win by himself.

The mafia members want to convince their partners as much as possible that they are going to cooperate during the night. Soup is blatantly expressing how he would not have cooperated with his partner, not something a mafia member would put forth when trying to gain his partner's trust. The ease in which Soup is posting these thoughts indicates that he has no such concern; therefore, he is not in such a situation.

Also, In my two MvPs me and marshy lynched every town 3 days consecutively back to back together and in simpsons we pegged the indy and I carried my lurking partner into an alpha on ranmaru at lylo where everyone read me as town.

As scum, it would be in Soup's best interest to downplay his skill as scum or at least avoid it. That he is speaking so well of it here indicates a lack of fear of being lynched from paranoia. Hence why I don't think he is indy either.

 

[BSL]

I got about 1/4 of the way through when I realized you were teaching mafia how to win this game.

Y u give mafia the win, OS?

 

[Ramen King]

oh boy at that ninja

lol @ the tl;dr being too long to read

 

[BSL]

Lmao no way.

Yeah, soup is definitely town based on my secret meta that I actually have.

 

[Overswarm]

I got about 1/4 of the way through when I realized you were teaching mafia how to win this game.

Y u give mafia the win, OS?

Assuming mafia is stupid is pointless but more importantly, it is in our best interests for mafia to survive until the SK is dead because if we kill mafia, then the SK has free reign. If mafia lives, SK has to kill mafia before it's down to just those two. While this does increase mafia's chance of winning, it also decreases the SK and therefore increases town's.

 

[th3kuzinator]

zen y u no let me figure that out by talking to soup himself

waiting for content from os and july!

lets lynch bsl in the meantime!

 

[Ramen King]

My b.

I got about 1/4 of the way through when I realized you were teaching mafia how to win this game.

Y u give mafia the win, OS?

This actually indy telling in my opinion. Something about OS' posts gives me the feel that he is trying to distance himself from indy's goals. "why would indy give mafia advice?"

This line in particular:

This post isn't really for discussion as most of it is pretty cut and dry; disagreeing with it gives the SK more information so... I wouldn't say anything.

Gives me a weird feel.

 

[BSL]

Assuming mafia is stupid is pointless but more importantly, it is in our best interests for mafia to survive until the SK is dead because if we kill mafia, then the SK has free reign. If mafia lives, SK has to kill mafia before it's down to just those two. While this does increase mafia's chance of winning, it also decreases the SK and therefore increases town's.

Is this a tl;dr of the tl;dr? Makes sense I guess. Do I still need to read that huge post?

 

[Overswarm]

You can have a weird feel all you want, Zen. None of this is rocket science and you all knew it was coming before I posted. It's how I play the game.

Kudos on you for creating a tale though. Indy would give mafia advice to distance himself from the connection of being both mafia and indy and make himself appear more town. Again, not rocket science. Indy would also accuse others of being Indy. Does this mean that me and you are most likely to be Indiana Jones? Not in the slightest.


Here, let me try:

This actually indy telling in my opinion. Something about OS' posts gives me the feel that he is trying to distance himself from indy's goals. "why would indy give mafia advice?"

Hmm... Something about Zen's post gives me the feel that he's trying to distance himself from indy's goals. Why would the indy call out someone else for being indy?

This line in particular:

Gives me a weird feel.

Gives me a weird feel. I mean what's the about? Weird feelings? Either you can explain it logically or you can't.


OR

You're attempting to spin a tale and set the stage, which is a mafia 101 form of misdirection.

"Hey everybody! Look at this guy!" *thunderclap and your fingerpoint* "Doesn't he just seem OFF to you?"

Suddenly someone is up for discussion and thought prior to them... saying or doing anything?



How'd I do? Did that set the stage for Zenscum? I tried to emulate you best I could.

See here's the thing: I'm not scared of being lynched, or night killed, or whatever, in any of my games.

You want to put words in my mouth, feel free but they won't convince anyone. You want to accuse someone, do so full force instead of this ball-shrinking half-headed pansy approach you've got going for you where you just kind of waggle your eyebrows and point and hope no one judges you too harshly if they disagree.

Half-***** WIFOM of "I bet OS did this because he's indy and if we accused him of being indy he'd say 'Why would indy give advice to mafia', isn't that suspicious?!" is the kind of **** that loses you high profile games like this.

We have one, count'em, one mislynch. That's it. Depending on the Night Actions it is go time afterwards.

Is this a tl;dr of the tl;dr? Makes sense I guess. Do I still need to read that huge post?

You should at least skim it and look for inconsistencies or errors in calculation; it was all stream of consciousness and I may have missed something.

I have an actual plan for the game pretty soon that will make it unlikely for the SK to win that I will bring up later, but first I want to read all the RVS posts. I keep getting caught up responding and I still have another game I want to get to. But I have work in real work job time to do at the moment, so it will wait.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

@bw: no i mean how did you get into watching it? im just curious

Spoiler

Oh, so you don't care about the gay pony buttsex.

Nah, I just was bored one day and saw it on a friend's blog. I watched it and left it alone for a couple of months. Again bored I watched again and continued. The end.

 

[Ramen King]

OS I never said it was evidence for you being scum. It's just the my personal vibe from your post. Of course it is circumstantial. Your over reaction is interesting though.

 

[Ramen King]

You see, unlike yourself, I actually like to discuss the intentions behind people's posts. I don't know how I could have made that post any clearer that it was me putting out my opinion for discussion. I really wasn't expecting that kind of reaction.

 

[Overswarm]

Someone give me the downlow on Badwolf. I know absolutely nothing on this slot.

Vote: BSL

His scum play is incredible. I think he's gotten 2-3 MVPs for scum play in the past few months. He's up and down as town. We usually only ever get along when we hydra.

What is a game you think he did well as scum? I am interested.

I'll let you know Soup meta by the end of the day.
Best not taint it before its on the way.

Aye?

Agree, look forward to seeing it.

Zen, how do you feel about people protecting others? Is this scum behavior?

Sup homies.

Kuz: Welcome back brohan

July: I still can't read you :D

Zen: I still think you'll make some potentially awful gambit to lose town the game if you're town :D, also Dat intro post

OS: Sup bro, I'mma follow you for a little so you don't get disappointed in me NO MO

BSL: Hey you play this?

Soup: Obama2012

I probably forgot people

oh yeah Badwolf

We could lynch him and I wouldn't be upset about it TBH.

But I'm not gonna vote him

OH GOD I'M BEING WISHY WASHY CLASSIC SCUM TELL.

No but seriously

srsly.

*brofist*

Actually interesting question time... and I'll pitch it to the man I've chosen to follow!

OS, if this game gets into a possible kingmaker scenario.

I'm not sure if that's possible mind you but I bet it is.

Do you let SK or Mafia win assuming you're not either one of them.

I'd do my best to get them modkilled somehow so I'd win.


Now the kingmaker thing.... was actually my plan! You just hit it first. I'll get to it at the bottom.

Real talk kevmo. I cant have you givin os even the slightest bit of influence. even if ur doin it just to read him. id prefer os lynched as soon as possible. and ur question does no good. u know os is all about that mechanics talk and ur givin him something to fluff about. pretty weird honestly i dont know wut ur doin

Not sure if I should give protown points to Zen or not for this. I am dangerous as scum and you already know I'm going to be a big ol' influence on this game, but I think my play in similar games to this in the past has proven to be effective.

also the nature of this game allows full reads list and expressing town reads to be beneficial and protown so id appreciate it if everyone keeps their reads pretty open and updated frequently

I'm unsure on this at the moment. I do agree that open information isn't as beneficial to scum but I am not yet currently of the mind that we should all have our cards on the table 24/7. Interested in hearing the logic behind this though, I could agree.


ANYWAY


This game should be a Kingmaker setup

We don't vote for people anymore, but rather decide who we should allow to decide who we lynch with impunity. That means they lynch someone and we allow them.


Why Kingmaker?

Because it flips the odds in town's favor.

If we arbitrarily choose someone to be kingmaker, there is a 66% chance they are town. This also leaves a very obvious, open trail as to who was going for who AND reduces SK's influence as to who should be lynched. The odds of picking the SK for King are 1/9 and the SK isn't going to be able to worm people towards others or away from himself in this situation. He's just gotta go with the flow.

Now there are 8 possibilities for being lynched on D1, giving us the worst odds we will ever get for catching the SK... and it's 5/8 if we hit a townie with the king.

But what if we make mafia king?

We have a 1/4 chance of making mafia king. This will mean that of the 8 players only SEVEN will be up for a lynch. King won't lynch himself, King won't lynch his mafia partner.

6/7 chance of hitting town but 0% chance of hitting mafia and 1/7 chance of hitting SK.

If we get town, we have a 5/8 chance of hitting town (lower), 2/8 chance of hitting mafia (higher), and a 1/8 chance of hitting SK (lower).

The moment the SK dies, kingmaker no longer makes sense, but until then the odds only get better for a kingmaker approach.


Thoughts?

 

[th3kuzinator]

zen do you currently have a read on os?

 

[Overswarm]

OS I never said it was evidence for you being scum. It's just the my personal vibe from your post. Of course it is circumstantial. Your over reaction is interesting though.

You see, unlike yourself, I actually like to discuss the intentions behind people's posts. I don't know how I could have made that post any clearer that it was me putting out my opinion for discussion. I really wasn't expecting that kind of reaction.

Get over yourself, you're not Sherlock. You're not even watson.

You're spinning tales again.

"Herpaderp, imma make a post about someone and then when they respond I'll say I didn't expect it and they overreacted!"

Who would overreact? Oh, I get it. Scum would overreact.

"Unlike you, I actually like to discuss the intentions behind people's post"

I'm gonna go out on a limb and think that no one would believe that I'm a brainless player who doesn't look at intentions.


What a brilliant, flawless plan. We are sitting in the presence of genius.

 

[Overswarm]

Gorf, you are the most aloof. If you had to pick someone to choose as King right now with no other posts, who would you pick assuming your one primary goal is to not pick the Serial Killer.

 

[th3kuzinator]

zen do you currently have a read on os?

soup please answer that too

os lets not turn this into kingmaker

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Can we shoot OS if he doesn't stop posting walls

 

[Overswarm]

os lets not turn this into kingmaker

Why not? It's math. We have a greater chance at killing the serial killer with a kingmaker approach than we do with anything else.

This isn't to say we shouldn't have a normal Day phase where we discuss things and have wagons and whatnot, but leaving it ultimately up to the kingmaker will increase our statistical chances.

 

[th3kuzinator]

but its not as fun! plus giving an outlet of conversation just related to kingmaker/deciding who it is/making everyone follow the kingmaker gives scum places to hide! even if they are cooperating toward their statistical disadvantage, they look productive while doing it

soup, that doesn't answer my question

 

[Overswarm]

but its not as fun! plus giving an outlet of conversation just related to kingmaker/deciding who it is/making everyone follow the kingmaker gives scum places to hide! even if they are cooperating toward their statistical disadvantage, they look productive while doing it

The first part's opinion based, but I really don't see how a kingmaker setup gives the serial killer any more places to hide than they would have in a normal game. I can't force people to go along with a Kingmaker; it has to be a unanimous decision. But like it or not, it's the best bet town has at catching the SK.

 

[BSL]

Why not? It's math. We have a greater chance at killing the serial killer with a kingmaker approach than we do with anything else.

This isn't to say we shouldn't have a normal Day phase where we discuss things and have wagons and whatnot, but leaving it ultimately up to the kingmaker will increase our statistical chances.

I'm going to go ahead and back OS up on the math thing.

If I still get to play mafia, but we have a better chance at winning, then I'm game.

Now, what I don't know, is whether or not the math is actually correct or if it's practical to play this way. I don't know how people work, nor do I know mafia theory. I tried to do setup math once in HxH and it wasn't even close to being right.

I'm afraid I can't weigh in on whether or not it's realistically beneficial to play this like a Kingmaker.





What I do want to know, is who gets to be the kingmaker? I feel like trying to decide that is going to take a lot of time and deliberation. Not specifically a bad thing inherently, but it takes away from scumhunting time, making it bad.

 

[th3kuzinator]

lets increase the statistical chance of finding the SK with smart day phase scumhunting, not mechanics! breaking the game down into probabilities inherently mucks up some tells that become apparent if the game were just to proceed as normal. the benefits of letting the game flow as normal, w/ its non-mechanic based interactions, will outweigh the statistical advantage gained from playing kingmaker.

aka this conversation right now isn't telling me anything about your alignment, just that you're quite good at analyzing statistical advantages per faction. you could do this as any alignment! :B

 

[BSL]

lets increase the statistical chance of finding the SK with smart day phase scumhunting, not mechanics! breaking the game down into probabilities inherently mucks up some tells that become apparent if the game were just to proceed as normal. the benefits of letting the game flow as normal, w/ its non-mechanic based interactions, will outweigh the statistical advantage gained from playing kingmaker.

This is what I mean by practicality of Kingmaker. I can't tell which is better.

 

[th3kuzinator]

I'm going to go ahead and back OS up on the math thing.

If I still get to play mafia, but we have a better chance at winning, then I'm game.

Now, what I don't know, is whether or not the math is actually correct or if it's practical to play this way. I don't know how people work, nor do I know mafia theory. I tried to do setup math once in HxH and it wasn't even close to being right.

I'm afraid I can't weigh in on whether or not it's realistically beneficial to play this like a Kingmaker.





What I do want to know, is who gets to be the kingmaker? I feel like trying to decide that is going to take a lot of time and deliberation. Not specifically a bad thing inherently, but it takes away from scumhunting time, making it bad.

aka this entire post!

lets lynch bsl!

 

[BSL]

Can we wait until I get some reads first? Once I decide who I think is mafia/SK, then you can lynch me and use my reads.

 

[Overswarm]

This is what I mean by practicality of Kingmaker. I can't tell which is better.

Kingmaker is, without a doubt. You'd just have to follow the explicit rules of EVERYONE doing it, which given the response from kuz seems unlikely at the moment, so not worth it.

 

[KevinM]

Honestly I don't care if it's not as fun as long as we get the W.

Down to lynch Zen/BW

OS as to your question of BW, I've only played in a few games with him and read him as a really weak townie who plays far to much into his emotions.

Zen thus far this game I've literally seen you make

A **** intro post to get the ball rolling I guess.

Dismiss my question towards OS before he has a chance to answer it because you said it would be distracting.

Tried to discredit my slot, and OS's slot saying we have a chance of being a distraction by wanting to talk about the set-up to see if it can be broken.

And now you want to discredit the Kingmaker set-up under the basis of...?

Holy **** bro

Unvote

Vote

Kingmaker or not I think you can be our first lynch of today.

You're being so incredibly anti-town it's making my head spin.