• Welcome to Smashboards, the world's largest Super Smash Brothers community! Over 250,000 Smash Bros. fans from around the world have come to discuss these great games in over 19 million posts!

    You are currently viewing our boards as a visitor. Click here to sign up right now and start on your path in the Smash community!

PopCorn Mafia! Summer House Party Edition - Party Round 1 Starts!

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
when you vote soup it's because you get "pressured" but when I call out his weird play it's "hammering him" ?
when I ask Rajam something and he doesn't respond that makes me the one who's scum? yet you also admit you didn't get a straight response out of him.
and you could make exactly the same case that I ignored frozen, that I never said anything meaningful to him. I didn't post a lot of thoughts and reads in the thread, I just chased up things that were of interest to me.

you're not even pointing out anything scummy about my play, you're just trying to throw me in with Rajam based on scummy stuff that he did. just give it up lmao.
 

Maven89

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 26, 2014
Messages
3,830
Location
decisive games
Rajam did respond to me, I had to push but he did respond.

Frozen was utterly inactive so no one had interacted with him, your comparison doesn't work
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 26, 2005
Messages
2,031
Location
Albuquerque, NM
Hey hate to be an inactive douche but I just got back from a bachelor party event and have some pressing personal **** to deal with tonight so I have no time to read the game over again and make the final call. Ill shoot tomorrow once Im able to do that.

Really sorry making you all wait like this but im just not in the right mental place to be effectively reading mafia games let alone taking the deciding shot in endgame. See you all tomorrow to finish this
 

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
Hey hate to be an inactive douche but I just got back from a bachelor party event and have some pressing personal **** to deal with tonight so I have no time to read the game over again and make the final call. Ill shoot tomorrow once Im able to do that.

Really sorry making you all wait like this but im just not in the right mental place to be effectively reading mafia games let alone taking the deciding shot in endgame. See you all tomorrow to finish this
It's all good, it's only a game. Just don't pull a Xatres please.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 26, 2005
Messages
2,031
Location
Albuquerque, NM
So far I'm liking Rajam's content the best, and I'm liking Kary's the least. I don't see how her questions could lead to anything valuable. Rajam's baiting seems more genuine. That's where I'm sitting at now
Rajam what's your take on Kary
Looks like buddying

soup, any elaboration on this? can Maven be behind this?
Oddly specific question for so early in the game, and also considering Hando suggested Xatres was equally likely based on his meta reasoning

I think there is bigger fish to fry atm. I'm watching of course, but I'm willing to let him be for the moment. His interaction with soup doesn't seem SvS tho; Kary's intention to read soup seemed genuine

I'd still shoot Frozen/Xatres
^ Is in response to Maven's question "Rajam what's your take on Kary"

This is such a softball answer. Seems like scumbuddies trying to slow pitch opportunities to create town seeming content. Rajam's answer seems really forced/artificial.

Could be early bussing but this feels more like a genuine attempt to correct a misunderstanding/mis-statement.

I'm at work all day but Rajam is coasting on the early town reads and Frozen is being silly and comes off trying to protect Xatres.
And the flip begins. This is an abrupt change. No buildup. Just "welp Rajam has crossed the "coasting" line." You'd think if someone was approaching that limit for Maven we'd have heard more about it and been able to see that read naturally deteriorate. Seems opportunistic, like an eagerness to bus.

Frozen/Xatres combo is something I considered, Frozen seemed to be doing the same thing he was accusing me of doing, and was pushing me when the only options were Xatres/Me, making pushing me a soft Xatres defense.

My other two choices for scum are Soup/Rajam. I felt Rajam was active enough early on to try and get conversation going (I'm assuming he liked every post in the hopes people would talk about why he liked every post), but then he vanished, and while he came back and posted good information it's entirely possible he's scum and tried to coast on his early town reads, and his return is rather late. Could easily be RL issues, could be scum coasting. While I gave him an early town read I don't believe he currently deserves any hard town read. He hasn't done anything scummy either, so I'm considering him an unlikely partner to Xatres, higher chance if Xatres is town.

Soup is rather null, but I don't see anything inherently scummy in what Soup is doing, he's asking questions and getting involved, I think Rajam is pushing Soup too hard if he thinks any of the Soup points paint him scum.

Kary being scum is very unlikely to me, but it's the last option available and so if Xatres is town I'll look closer at her, right now we seem to be vibing so I'm town reading the slot.
Wow bus is in full force now. This also seems unnatural and forced to me.

Frozen do you still Maven could be the play? I wonder how much the question Maven did factors/factored in your perception of him. Also, what do you think of the Maven-soup exchange from Day 1? could it be a disconnection (aka not SvS)?
More rajam/maven connection. Trying to undercut my gut read here? Not sure why rajam was so concerned with Maven anyway. Maybe rajam decided to start bussing rajam here to make sure he would also get towncred if maven went down before him?

Kary, would you shoot frozen Y/N?
Seems like a very strange question to ask a scummate. This assumes scum have daychat which I think is probably necessary for this game to be fair considering there is no night phase and scum can't ever kill. Nothing in the rules suggests that scum don't get day chat and the fundamental rules make room for it. ("4.) Unless your role PM specifically allows you the power, you are not to communicate with anyone about this game outside of this game thread. This includes posting content outside of the game thread and linking to it in the game thread.")

Could be artificial fluffing between mates but my gut isn't leaning that way.

Maven, care to explain why my being shot for being chill with the idea of being shot is scummy, but you being okay with getting the gun yourself is not?
This was a particularly powerful post IMO that I completely overlooked until this read through. Great question. Especially when this is the follow up:

If Xatres is here there's no reason to give me the gun, I was frustrated with nothing happening and would have preferred Xatres just giving me the gun then having to convince an inactive to shoot Soup. If he's here then that plan is done, only benefit to me giving me the gun now is that if I'm right I can post an evil dead gif
Backs off of being shot when the out presented itself. This is a fatal crack in the "lololol shoot me w/e I'm town and will live no problemo" bluff IMO

Shoot Rajam
lmao where did this confidence come from? Especially on a player he completely 180'd on midway though? Seems like a last attempt to distance and setup for bus cred.

Yeah this is enough for me. I've read both of y'alls endgame comments too but I don't like to give those too much weight because they are necessarily posturing and y'all both have more information that I do (i.e. you both know the other must be scum from your perspective).

Kary if you're scum you did a great job distancing from Rajam by omission. I'm a bit hesitant because I've been on a streak of misreading scum as town because they were seeing eye to eye with me most of the game but I think the record in this game has enough Maven/Rajam interaction to justify this call. Maybe I'm getting beat by minimalist scum play, coasting, and blinding myself by letting myself townread people with similar reactions/opinions to my own but **** it, I'd feel like a real idiot if I shot Kary and let Maven/rajam win when it seems so much more obvious. If it's Kary/Rajam well then I just got legitimately outplayed. /shrug

Let's hope I break my streak of getting outplayed...

Shot 4 Shot: Maven

gg all, sorry for my general lack of activity due to repeated V/LAs. Reallllly hoping I'm not letting town down here. All in all I had fun with this short little game, hope you all did too on some level.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 26, 2005
Messages
2,031
Location
Albuquerque, NM
Welp.jpg

my bad dude, your flip on rajam seemed too forced and out of no where. I guess I should've recognized that your uncertainty was a town tell but it wouldve seemed less like a bus if you had actually seemed to naturally progress through a read shift. It just seemed like you jumped to him once you felt he might be a play so you could get credit when he flipped.

Yeah you're right that you were putting in more effort than most but I mean effort alone isn't a town tell, motivated scum can draw up fake cases that look really compelling. Tried to read motive here and your posts just came off much more fake.

Don't even know if Kary was intentionally trying to get me to townread him but for whatever reason when I read his posts I felt like he was sharing my experience and reacting the same way I was. Knowing I was town, that mirroring of my experience definitely biased my read on him. He did a good job acting town with what limited content he did provide.

You contributed a lot but your jumpiness and inconsistency just really came off scummy. I understand if you were legitimately changing you mind/reads but I didn't get any help from you to help me see why/how you got there.

gg guys, wp scum, sorry town if maven isn't bluffing rn
 
Last edited:

Maven89

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 26, 2014
Messages
3,830
Location
decisive games
It was a pretty big change from "meh" to "scum" on Rajam, but that's happened because Soup was cleared. I don't blame you, Kary played very well.

I'm at least happy I didn't get shot for wanting to modkill people.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 26, 2005
Messages
2,031
Location
Albuquerque, NM
Really frustrating that I keep underestimating scum like this and keep getting btfo in endgame. I feel so ****ing stupid. I really need to take a look at the bigger picture in games more and not let localized exchanges sway my reads so hard. I get too caught up in looking for faked interactions/deliberate bussing/distancing and buddying instead of evaluating slots wholistically and really focusing on the criterion of "is this slot actually scumhunting."

Maybe it's because I'm not scumhunting robustly enough myself and therefore am too willing to let shoddy attempts at scum hunting and coasting off others' content slide by my scumdar since I'm kind of doing it myself. I also just need to shake this whole "if they're thinking/reacting like me they're probably town too" bias. Whether it's intentionally done to pull the wool over my eyes or not, it's repeatedly getting me played like a fiddle as town.

Should've listened to your endgame case more and recognized Kary's lack of motive to even attempt to crystallize for me why you had to be scum as scum hesitance to overplay his hand. I think kary recognized that I'd be leaning toward you anyway and just wanted to let you hang yourself in my eyes and not do anything overtly scummy/reachy himself to disturb my proclivity to trust him, given my early read list indicated I strongly scumread you and townread Kary.

Maybe if this was a more typical game and I were deliberately left alive by scum I would've been more ready to consider that possibility but the fact that it's town that left me alive and scum had nothing to do with it made me think that it was unlikely scum would be riding me trusting an early town read to make the wrong call in lylo. Bah...

insert more salty buyers remorse-esque post game commentary here
 
Last edited:

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
Joined
Sep 15, 2010
Messages
6,865
Inactivity kills, and there was not nearly enough going on to formulate strong opinions outside base assumptions and guesswork. I'm not crediting myself as doing a stellar job pinning Rajam in this regard, though Kary did a good job of disassociating herself entirely, remaining null and in the background.

Granted, if Maven is lying then he did a good job pretending to be town who just got shot.
 

#HBC | marshy

wanted for 3rd degree swag
BRoomer
Joined
May 21, 2006
Messages
3,928
Location
swag
frozen shoots maven who is town

with 1 mafia alive and 1 townie mafia overtakes the town! scum win!

congrats to kary and rajam more thoughts later but wanted to officially wrap this up
 

#HBC | marshy

wanted for 3rd degree swag
BRoomer
Joined
May 21, 2006
Messages
3,928
Location
swag
kary and rajam did a good job showing energy outside the gate. it was refreshing to see a scumteam take control at the beginning of the game

that said hard game for town to win. yall were working with peanuts there in lategame
 

Xatres

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Sep 3, 2010
Messages
992
Location
Morrisville, NC
NNID
Xatres17
I take full responsibility for my abysmal play. Somehow I got it in my head that we were on the regular 1 week deadline.
 

#HBC | marshy

wanted for 3rd degree swag
BRoomer
Joined
May 21, 2006
Messages
3,928
Location
swag
i didnt like making that call. j/i should have announced at the beginning of d2 the exact deadline but we didnt. but then it passed and i wanted to stay consistent with the 72 hr rule we threw out there in the op

sucks cuz it affected the outcome of the game. gun went to soup who immediately gunned down scum (nice play btw). that may not have happened otherwise
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 3, 2008
Messages
2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
Great job Kary; I suck at being scum (I actually enjoy being town a lot more) and I started to fall apart after the beginning of Day 1. I enjoyed the game though, it's a refreshing mechanic :)

Note: town had a 60% chance of winning the game via random shooting. I'll show the numbers later :O
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 3, 2008
Messages
2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
This is a diagram showing the chances of the different possible outcomes of the game. With 1 confirmed town, (1 CT), 4 towns (4 T) and 2 mafia (2 M) at the beginning, the chances of town winning via random shooting are 60% :o

At the beginning of the game there's 1 CT, 4 T and 2 M. That's the 1st column at the left. If the confirmed town random-shoots, there's a chance of 4/6 of hitting town, and 2/6 chance of hitting mafia. If town is shot, then in the next Day/stage there's 1 CT, 3T and 2M, and if mafia is shot, then the numbers for the next Day/stage are 1 CT, 4T, 1M. That's on the 2nd and 3rd columns... and so on.

The final column on the right side shows the chances of the respective faction (green = town, red = mafia) winning the game following the route on the columns on the left side in that same row. For example, in the last column, the 5th row shows a 6,67% within a red cell; that means that mafia has a 6,67% chance of winning following the next path: town is shot 1st, then mafia is shot 2nd, then town is shot 3rd, then town is shot 4th, and finally a town is shot in 5th place.

Each final percentage is calculated multiplying the odds on that same row on the left columns. Then, at the further right-bottom corner it's shown the chances of mafia/town winning the game, which are the result of summing the respective chances in the last column.

 
Last edited:

Rajam

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 3, 2008
Messages
2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
I also made the maths to see which would be the optimal numbers to run with this game's mechanic in mind. Random shooting is assumed. Considering that shooting at random should be "bad" for town, then the chances of town winning the game via random-shooting should never exceed 50%. Therefore, by looking at the chart below, my conclusion is that the optimal numbers to run this kind of game is two townies for each mafia member. Numbers like 4 town - 2 mafia, or 6 town - 3 mafia, or 8 town and 4 mafia, etc.

 
Top Bottom