In most scenarios, you won't recover fast enough for the second Confusion.
Alright. I tested this in training mode. Fox's reflector does break at 50 damage, but ours will break first if a fully charged Shadow Ball is used.
Shadow Ball is 25% damage.
If we throw it, and Fox reflects it, and then we reflect it back, it goes up to 49% damage. Just under the threshold. We are unable to reflect it back at this point. The reflect sound occurs, but Mewtwo still gets hit.
If you throw a tiny, uncharted ball, Fox also wins, or we draw. Fox wins if you are closer than 2/3 screen because we don't recover in time for the third reflect. If you are farther than that, it is a draw because the Shadow Ball dies after hitting the reflector a third time.
At 2/3 range, there is one particular situation where we can win. Charge Shadow Ball to ~75% power. This gives it just enough damage so that we can reflect it a second time, but it goes above the 50 damage threshold for Fox. At around 20%, it KOs. Still a crappy sitch for us overall.
When the Shadow Ball move is suffering from significant overuse, it seems like I always win the exchange.
Fresh, and at max power, you win.
Fresh, and at 3/4 power, I win.
Used a second time in a row at max power, I win.
Small balls always result in a loss for me.
At some weird character length, about 1/5 of the stage, Fox's Reflector double reflects it back onto himself somehow.
Sometimes, Mewtwo's reflector makes the Shadow Ball pass through him instead of reflect it or get hit
I know I am a bit late but this is wrong.
Shadow Ball deals 25% damage. Fresh moves do an extra 1.05% damage (they do not in training mode which is why it will fail inside training mode). 90% of reflectors (not counting the Bats or Pocket) multiply by 1.4x including our own.
When you throw the ball it has a damage output of 26.25%. If they reflect the ball back at you it comes back at 36.75%. This means that when we reflect it back it goes back towards the opponent at 51.45 which actually for some reason registers as 52%.
I know this because I've done this MANY times. If I see a reflector loving opponent I refresh my Shadow Ball, charge it to max and then just throw and reflect. It kills Fox at around 10% and Mario at around 20% too, so it's a very early kill if they make the mistake. It also breaks shield if they try to shield. Finally if you space it correctly they should not have time to jump either (it will still hit them, unless it's Falco or something who jumps really fast). Basically they are left with either power shielding or rolling/dodging, all 3 are extremely hard to time, specially if they weren't expecting the second reflect.
For the baby Shadow Balls, while a fresh one makes you lose the final outcome, once Shadow Ball is not fresh (it doesn't matter how stale it is, it just needs to be stale) you will always win the outcome for the war.
Let me show you:
Baby Shadow Ball deals 2.5% damage. If the move is stale it deals around ~2-2.375% damage
Throw - 2.0-2.375 damage
First reflect (Belongs to your opponent) - 2.8 - 3.32%
Second reflect (Belong to you) - 3.92 - 4.65%
3rd - 5.48 - 6.51%
4th - 7.68 - 9.12%
5th - 10.75 - 12.77%
6th - 15.05 - 17.88%
7th - 21.08 - 25.03%
8th - 29.51 - 35.04%
9th - 41.32 - 49.06%
10th (belongs to you) - 57.85 - 68.69%
To summarize:
If Shadow Ball is fresh Mewtwo will always win the MAX charge reflection war. If Shadow Ball is not fresh (doesn't matter how stale it is) Mewtwo will always win the MIN charge reflection war.
From my experience mewtwo excels against players with hyper aggressive play styles. This includes mario, falcon, and sonic. I tend to throw an uncharged sb during the beginning in case they try to rush me down. Other than that, it is definitely the keep away game.
Mewtwos down throw doesn't combo into anything. But it's secretly an amazing move. Most players these days know that so they may try to come down with an air dodge or even a counter attack expecting a fair to come out. This is where we have the option to either throw out a forward smash to cover both options or go for an air chase if they double jump instead. A lot of people never expect up air strings. You can effectively string 2-3 up airs in a row against characters who struggle to get down.
These rules apply to confusion as we'll. when you're using it to not reflect. Move and instead to command grab your opponent, you get the same option altogether from down throw with the huge bonus of it having set knock back and the chance for a tech chase if you catch em off guard. Be aware that this move won't work on some characters as they could pretty much attack the moment they stop spinning. This move needs to be used carefully.
Shadow ball. It's one of mewtwo a redeeming qualities really. Just having your hands glow with purple fear already makes your opponent tremble with agony changing their playstyle sometimes. Add that it kills quite early and you've got yourself a high tier projectile. For characters with reflectors. Condition them. Throw out a lot of small ones early on. Throw short hop fully charged shadow balls to avoid the reflected hits. This will condition your opponent to reflect a lot. Use that opportunity for grabs and set up air chases. I like to intentionally telegraph my throws like being at a certain distance or not moving for a few seconds before throwing. When your opponent reads those you know it's time to lay the smack down. And once again a last second shadow ball always catches someone off guard.
Down tilt. One of my favorite moves from mewtwo. You can spam it. At early percentage it true combos into up smash. And you can start chasing your opponent with more up smashes or up airs.
Disable. I use this as a surprise factor. I rarely have a moment to use this move but when I do it's when I've got my opponents mindset down. Usually do this against characters that like to run towards you really fast. Fox, falcon, and sonic sound about right. Usually ends the game at that moment.
Back air. Amazing move. Just use it off stage.
Nair. It's weird in that it sends opponents behind you if you land with it still active. Turn around grab works. Also shield into turn around grab works too.
Up throw. When your opponents at 140 and you have a little rage going on, you can already tell you and your opponent are playing a different game now.
Teleport. My last point to throw out. It's quite handy to avoid attacks and escape juggles if used correctly. Can't mention how many times it has saved me from death combos and death in general. I like to swag out with it too and edge cancel with it into any move I see fit.
Other than that, I had a few good runs with falcon and sonic today. Had no dropped games against them aside from one where I suicided twice. Mewtwo a teleport is amazing when the underside of the stage doesn't freakin bounce you off in the completely opposite direction of the ledge.
I start a game off with a uncharged shadow ball followed by passively charging the ball mixing it in with my approaches and spacing. Once it's fully charged, the game has already changed in your opponents mind in that no matter what don't get hit by that. That creates pressure and no all you have to do is play keep away. Read the preemptive shields with dash grabs, follow up with your throws and repeat the cycle. Once they're off stage, I like to throw a shadow ball, charged or uncharged, and then cover the low recovery, for characters like falcon in which I have a harder time edge guarding as mewtwo, a falling back air towards the stage seems to work. That or read the get up option from the ledge . Up smash can cover all of them.
Finally, do your best to space yourself and control the pace of the match. You want them playing at your speed. Mewtwo will struggle immensely if you fail to do so. Once falcon gets his up air strings on you it's a hard time getting back.
The Mario's and Falcon's you're fighting are not good. Falcon can U-Air chain you forever. Also Mewtwo's size and air acceleration (which is extremely low) do not allow him to DI out of knee at some specific %s. If the Falcon knows about this then he has a kill combo that works around 50-70%.
Mario has a hard time getting the kill on us, but that's something Mario has against everyone. In reality with us it's easier for him to get the KO than it is with most of the other chars so Mario should be used to that little bit. Aside from that he can combo you forever too and he has a "combo breaker" N-Air and Mewtwo has no real true combos aside from 2 hit wonders which means you will never get more than 2 hits in a row on him.
If a Falcon or Mario can't get a single grab on you in a match then you're severely outplaying them, which is why I am saying that they must be bad.
This is not how it works in practice. I probably have more experience with this matchup than anyone else (my brother mains Mario and we're both top 10 in WI).
The Cape thing is correct, but you have the emphasis reversed. It's not that we just have to find the range and we're golden; it's that as long as the Mario knows the range, he's golden. It's much easier for him to slip in and out of that range to bait or predict a Shadow Ball than it is for us to line it up perfectly with where he'll be. The risk is way too great to make charged SB relevant in the matchup, and Cape is so lagless and noncommittal (he can even keep momentum while approaching) that uncharged SB, the foundation of our neutral, is also rendered useless.
Cape is also great against followups, and in customs Gust Cape is often thrown out in neutral, so it doesn't require a hard read to counter Disable.
As for Mario in the air, he's not just going to jump from the other side of the stage and land on you. A good Mario will mostly use air approaches but will mix up when he enters the air. He might rush in and feign a grab and jump at the last second. As for Bair being predictable, RAR Bair exists, and predictability doesn't really matter if we have no counter for it to begin with.
Fireballs combined with Cape force us to approach. Both characters have a projectile and a reflector, but Mario's are faster and Mario is faster, meaning he can position himself to punish reflection or charged SB much easier. I would argue only Wario (half the game anyway) and Sheik force approaches better than the Marios, and Mewtwo is 5th or maybe 7th behind the Links.
Mario does not lose to spacing because his top tier mobility gives him more effective range, and any spacing that would keep him out pales in comparison to his reward on getting in. This is even true for Mewtwo, who has pretty good reward.
I mained Link before Mewtwo, and this kind of sounds like my general theory of that matchup for a long time. I thought Link won the matchup due to his sizable range advantage. It wasn't the case because I would do 35% stuffing his approach for a full minute, and then he would get in and do 70%.
Fox is cancer, but he's not as bad as Mario. He's way, way less safe.
All Mewtwo really cares about is hurtbox size. He can do some really mean things to tall characters, and that makes those matchups a lot better. Mario, meanwhile is just short enough to be...short enough.
Usmash is much less commitment, and much less counterplay, and similar reward to all the other top tier anti-airs.
Due to it's trajectory, Fireball actually covers more vertical space than Charged Shadow Ball. Its slow speed is a benefit, because Mario can follow it and punish any reaction. It also is a nearly foolproof way to reset from high offstage. And it gimps.
And I don't know that I've ever been hit by a Bouncing Fish ever, aside from the combo out of Fthrow. Move is massively telegraphed and overrated.
But anyway, I think it's just a matter of experience. There are not too many high-level Marios for how many people main Mario. He doesn't get a lot of stream time, and even his top players are sometimes dubious (Ally dropped a game to Villager ledgestall when Mario beats it for free). Maybe when Sheik gets nerfed again we'll welcome our Mario overlords.
You do realize the "perfect range" is a minimum range, right? It's not that he can "weave in and out" it's whether you (Mewtwo) are far away enough to reflect it again or not. You have COMPLETE control over when to throw the Shadow Ball. Obviously Mario can remain in your face the whole game, you just don't throw it. Once he's out of that range you throw it. A good Mario won't even cape it if they have the matchup knowledge to understand that another reflect means instant death for him.
While Mario's fireball are a great tool AND Mario can follow up on it, they do not force you to approach mandatorily. If Mario is throwing them from really far away perfect shielding them isn't hard. You can even reflect them if Mario isn't full hoping it might hit him. If on the other hand Mario is close by then you can watch him closely and punish his pattern. You might think this is "approaching" but it shouldn't be considered the same as Mario has already initiated a laggy move (fireball) so as long as you can tell when he's going to throw it then you're good. If on the other hand he is mixing movement with Fireballs then technically he's the one approaching you. Even if we have no counter against his approach (which I believe we do to be honest, even if it's really hard) it's still him approaching you, not the other way around,
I still think the Mario matchup is incredibly hard, but I do not think Mario forces us to approach. In fact it's in Mario's benefit to be up close with us technically.
Bouncing Fish also combos out of half-charged Needles and out of F-Air. In neutral it's supposed to be a mix up tool. The move is excesively strong and it's Sheik's most reliable KO move to be honest (maybe 2nd most reliable after U-Air).
As I said again, you do realize you have completely control on when to release shadow ball right? And there are certain ranges where Mario cannot cape it back otherwise he's dead, it's just that. Will he allow you to put him at that range? Maybe not, but you can have the Shadow Ball just in case. You can also release the Shadow Ball as a punish too like you can in any matchup. Having it will always put your opponent on the edge.
Almost all good players place Mario around 7-10th, behind a lot of chars (Rosalina, Luigi, Fox, Yoshi etc), not only Sheik. And Mario does struggle to get the kill most of the time. Normally Mario's try fishing for U-Smashes since F-Smash and D-Smash are way too unsafe. It's almost all they can do.
Mario is a solid char though, very strong, but you're making him out to be god tier, which he isn't close to. Although he might as well be god tier when fighting against Mewtwo. If I were to rate how the matchup "feels" without doing any labbing or research I'd say Mario vs Mewtwo is like 30-70 in Mario's favor just because everytime I fight a decent Mario I just can't do almost anything.
So I actually came into the thread to ask:
What moves/tools do you guys use to punish Pikachu/Kirby when they approach with aerials? Both Pikachu and Kirby have multi-hit aerials which last until they land, so you cannot drop shield until after they land (or at least I think I can't, correct me if I am wrong) and when they do land their body crouches into the ground allowing them to dodge grabs or jabs. I've also tried OoS U-Smash and OoS N-Air, nothing hits them.
Is there something I am not doing? Maybe an option I am not thinking about? Maybe an specific hit in their moves I can drop shield at to grab before the next hit (and before they land) or something similar? I was thinking of maybe going for D-Tilt but I am almost 100% sure that there won't be enough lag to actually do it (since I would have to go into shield stun, shield drop and then finally the D-Tilt frames).
I honestly need help figuring out how to punish an aerial from Pikachu or Kirby it's extremely annoying that they seem like they can just get away with it and I just have to respect it and run away...
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