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Data Phrygia's Notebook - Lucas Matchup Discussion

PKBeam

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Here's my take on some of the matchups (I've recently picked up Lucas in Brawl and Smash 4 so I'm not a complete expert on the matter).
1. Lucas vs. Pikachu, this match up is largely in Pikachu's favor due to his speed. If the Lucas player is able to predict what their opponent will do, it's easier to lead into PK Fire, or a grab, and (if you're opponent is extremely predictable) up-smash. The key is to pace the match, figure out what your opponent's strategy is, and do your best to adapt. Leave the smash moves for definite KOs, largely due to their end lag. If they miss Pikachu, he can easily lead into combos or a KO.
Pretty sure this is closer to even. Possibly -1. Pikachu doesn't seem to have good approaches against Lucas, although he does do somewhat better when he gets in. He's also really light, so he doesn't have an advantage in kill power.
2. Lucas vs. Cloud, this match up is moderately in Cloud's favor. As noted by several other posters, due to his usage of limit. It is true that you'd have to chase down Cloud to make certain moves or place himself at a certain position on the field. Cloud isn't a large threat on a field like Final Destination because it's linear and he'd be forced to dodge your PK Fire, grabs, and zair (snake rope). If he attempts Blade Beam, you can easily absorb that and heal yourself (somewhere around 4%). I've found that chasing Cloud down w/ PK Thunder is decent in stopping him from charging his limit. However, it can leave you vulnerable if it doesn't land.
I agree with this for the most part.
3. Lucas vs. Ness, a battle for the ages. Slightly to Ness' advantage, since his moves don't have as much lag as Lucas's do. It really boils down to getting close to Ness and maintaining pressure for the entire round (remember, Ness has the Behemoth Back Throw. So don't get sloppy). A battle of PK Fire will become old and predictable, eventually one or both of you will use PSI magnet, so properly timing your usage of PK Fire is essential.
I think we still have a few people who think it's +1 Lucas. I believe it's moreso evenish, reasoning is Lucas can zone out Ness pretty well and it's easier for him to gimp Ness than vice versa.
4. Lucas vs. Bayonetta, arguable in Bayo's favor. The thing to keep in mind is that Bayonetta's move have a lot of end lag. You're better off spacing her w/ PK Fire or waiting for her to attack, shield/avoid it, and lead into a grab combo (you can also rotate from grabs to a few moderate jabs/PK fire.
After watching Taiheita - 9B I'd agree, this feels like evenish or +1 Bayo. Her moves are actually quite safe in neutral, she can throw out Witch Twists and dive kicks; and you generally can't do anything about it. Especially not with Lucas.
5. Lucas vs. Ike, either even or in favor of Lucas. Reasoning: Ike is a slower character, as long as you don't let him pressure you, Lucas can stop half of his moves w/ PK fire, follow up w grabs (do so wisely), and easily pace/space the match until it's time to go for the KO. Ike, like most heavier characters, deals a lot of damage w/ very few hits. The key is to avoid them as much as possible, and punish them when they miss.
I have a good Ike player in my scene, and I have to say it's not as easy as that. Ike has the speed to get in and his moves are largely safe on Lucas' shield. Plus he kills us easier than vice versa. It ultimately becomes a CQC battle, and Ike gets more out of each hit unless Lucas can grab him. If it's not even it's +1 Ike.
6. Lucas vs. Link/Toon Link, literally one of the hardest matchups for me. Lucas can't absorb anything (maybe their bombs, I've never tried it) and if he's too busy absorbing something they can easily follow w/ an arrow or boomerang. It's hard to close on on these two due to their swords and grabs. However, a missed grab is an opportunity given, so take advantage of those. Again, PK fire is very useful in giving yourself distance while accumulating damage. Your best bet, is to either space them out or force them to approach (don't let your opponent approach if you're not planning on punishing it).
You can absorb their bombs, but a good Link won't throw them alone. You can't really force an approach without a stock lead because you'll just get camped. I don't think the MU is that bad for either, it just really tests your tolerance to camping.

This was a great first post btw.
 

Berni_Alt

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just like this dude shouldnt we all put a little of our matchup experience on this list, I will come up with my matchup list in a few days and see what you think about it.
 

rocksareblue

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I have a good Ike player in my scene, and I have to say it's not as easy as that. Ike has the speed to get in and his moves are largely safe on Lucas' shield. Plus he kills us easier than vice versa. It ultimately becomes a CQC battle, and Ike gets more out of each hit unless Lucas can grab him. If it's not even it's +1 Ike..
You're right, my post is a bit premature and I haven't faced many good Ike's. But I agree in general, I'll make better notes once I face more people that main these and other characters.

Also, thanks! :)
 

PKBeam

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Also I haven't seen this happen, but if you mess up a Dthrow combo on Bayonetta or go for something that's not true (some of you like to Bair), she can probably Up-B it and since you're already airborne, it can get ugly really quickly.

Did anyone else see that Taiheita - 9B match on Omage Kalos where Taiheita landed a sweetspot Fair, didn't retreat, got kicked in the face and died from 40 because he was already at FH height? Yeah. I could see the same thing happening on a greedy Dthrow followup.
 
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Berni_Alt

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Also I haven't seen this happen, but if you mess up a Dthrow combo on Bayonetta or go for something that's not true (some of you like to Bair), she can probably Up-B it and since you're already airborne, it can get ugly really quickly.

Did anyone else see that Taiheita - 9B match on Omage Kalos where Taiheita landed a sweetspot Fair, didn't retreat, got kicked in the face and died from 40 because he was already at FH height? Yeah. I could see the same thing happening on a greedy Dthrow followup.
Yeah i saw it, and it was ugly.
 

rocksareblue

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Further Matchups
7. Lucas vs. Little Mac, I personally feel like this is a field day for Lucas (I could be completely wrong here). But the ability to space/out camp LM (if done correctly) works largely in favor for Lucas. I would highly suggest not using moves that have a lot of lag or leave you wide open (like PK Freeze/Thunder) unless you're using them to edge guard LM. Considering his poor ariels (unless handled by a pro LM) you'll basically have the advantage w/ edge game.

8. Lucas vs. Duck Hunt: I've had no success here. I'd say it's in Duck Hunt's favor, but I've had little success against this character in general so I'll leave that one open to debate. Perhaps out camping and reading their various projectiles will help.

9. Lucas vs. Zelda: I actually haven't had this matchup in Sm4sh yet (I might have faced a Zelda recently, but I forgot what character I was using) but in Brawl it was a pain. Assuming, this matchup is roughly the same (with a few different moves per character. I'd say it's either slightly even or +1. Din's Fire (her side special) is my worst nightmare when recovering. But Lucas has a better PSI Magnet and can just absorb them, forcing Zelda to use other techniques when aiming for that ariel KO. I'll need a few more Zelda matches to properly analyze this matchup.
 

Login_Sinker

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I feel like Duck Hunt is decisively in Lucas's favor. We can both zone, but Lucas can actually kill, and Duck Hunt is literally easier to gimp than Little Mac.
 

frozentreasure

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If PK Freeze is leaving you wide open then you're doing something fundamentally wrong with how you use it.
 

epicnights

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Since I've got Ed/PurpleGuy in my region, I've got a bit to say on the Zelda matchup.

Disadvantage: Zelda is probably one of the few that can challenge a PK Thunder near the Blastzone with a spike and still recover, so never–and I mean NEVER– recover from directly below the ledge. Even in less dangerous recovery scenarios, she can challenge safely with down-b, neutral-b(invincible from frame 5 to 15), or challenge with her d-air, which is moderately disjointed. On stage, she can't really pressure us from below with anything but n-air. The true area of worry is her covering landings. She can easily pop you up with d-tilt, her disjointed dash attack or her throws, setting you up for either up-air or lightning kicks. You want platforms in this matchup, since landing on stage is dangerous.

Neutral: This is in our favor for the majority of the time, though she can read and reflect a PK fire, but that can be baited out, and only gains stage control. Her u-tilt is a good anti-air and her d-tilt is a good poke and set-up hit, though not safe on shield unless properly spaced. Grabs are something to be careful about, since she's got quite a disjointed grab after recent buffs. We win the neutral overall, but you need to stay on your toes or you'll find yourself in disadvantage.

Advantage: Zelda's up-b hitbox is frame 7, and a good Zelda will be able to edge cancel it, so watch out for that. If she can't edge cancel up-b, she's in a much more dangerous situation, as her other areas don't cover below her and d-air is frame 14. If you keep yourself out of lightning kick range, you should be fine.
 

Sidereus

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Does anyone know what to do against a Greninja who's Shuriken spamming? There seems to be no out as Lucas. I can work against any greninja that doesn't do this, I can overcome bad matchups, and even though I know this is our worst, I feel like if only I knew how to get past shurikens I could beat Greninjas. So, thanks in advance :)
 

PKBeam

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PS them or just avoid them and watch what the Greninja does.
If Greninja does them too close to you there are certain punish options (SH AD > Zair, FH Dair)
 

rocksareblue

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Since I've got Ed/PurpleGuy in my region, I've got a bit to say on the Zelda matchup.

Disadvantage: Zelda is probably one of the few that can challenge a PK Thunder near the Blastzone with a spike and still recover, so never–and I mean NEVER– recover from directly below the ledge. Even in less dangerous recovery scenarios, she can challenge safely with down-b, neutral-b(invincible from frame 5 to 15), or challenge with her d-air, which is moderately disjointed. On stage, she can't really pressure us from below with anything but n-air. The true area of worry is her covering landings. She can easily pop you up with d-tilt, her disjointed dash attack or her throws, setting you up for either up-air or lightning kicks. You want platforms in this matchup, since landing on stage is dangerous.

Neutral: This is in our favor for the majority of the time, though she can read and reflect a PK fire, but that can be baited out, and only gains stage control. Her u-tilt is a good anti-air and her d-tilt is a good poke and set-up hit, though not safe on shield unless properly spaced. Grabs are something to be careful about, since she's got quite a disjointed grab after recent buffs. We win the neutral overall, but you need to stay on your toes or you'll find yourself in disadvantage.

Advantage: Zelda's up-b hitbox is frame 7, and a good Zelda will be able to edge cancel it, so watch out for that. If she can't edge cancel up-b, she's in a much more dangerous situation, as her other areas don't cover below her and d-air is frame 14. If you keep yourself out of lightning kick range, you should be fine.
I can definitely agree with all of this. Although, I haven't faced any exceptional Zelda players, it definitely is in Lucas's best interest to to avoid facing Zelda while recovering. Be smart and creative with how you recover.
 
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PKBeam

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Zelda's dair is ugly on PKT2.
The only thing going for us is that you can sometimes mixup by delaying PKT2 or using a PKT2 bounce.
 

rocksareblue

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Found this on Reddit. Someone posted it a week or so ago. Feel free to commentate on what MUs you (dis)agree with and justify why. I might experiment w/ all of these throughout the next week.
 

Sidereus

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Found this on Reddit. Someone posted it a week or so ago. Feel free to commentate on what MUs you (dis)agree with and justify why. I might experiment w/ all of these throughout the next week.
There's a lot of things that I disagree with tbh, so I'll just very briefly explain why, and i can always elaborate if someone here disagrees. I'll start with the matchups I feel are ranked too low:

Definitely disagree with Rosa, like, insanely. Lucas has an advantage against Rosa, if only slightly thanks to the ease that we can knock Luma away, and down smash on her up b is super free, and kills Luma. Also, our recovery doesn't lose to her down b like ness does.

Sonic also isn't really a problem, we mostly throw stuff at him.

Sheik isn't really that bad for us after the needle range Nerf, as long as we take initiative and abuse zair and our disjoints and punish properly we shouldn't have TOO hard of a time.

I'm also unconvinced that we lose THAT badly to cloud since we edge guard him super free.

Marth and Lucina are also pretty handily in our favor IMO, as long as you don't stay in that middle spacing they like.

Ryu we also beat hard if we just pk fire the hell out of him and don't let him approach. It's not that hard for us, I've met a lot of Ryu mains that consider this one of their worse matchups.

Falcon isn't too bad either if you play defensive and don't air Dodge his falcon things.

Bayo is probably slightly in our favor, but I'll let it slide.

Now on the other hand:

Mario sucks for us, he reflects pk fire if he's smart, he can edge guard us fairly well, and his up smash beats a lot of our neutral. It's just not a fun time, and definitely not in our favor. Doc is similar, but we kill him easier, but we lose neutral more often thanks to pills.

Peach is probably more so even considering how if she starts down airing our shield, there's not much we can do.

And lastly, I'm pretty sure that the majority of the Lucas community agrees that Greninja is our worst matchup, correct me if I'm wrong though.

Also, I have my doubts on the Olimar Matchup, but I've never faced a decent one, so I won't say anything else about it.
 
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rocksareblue

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Marth and Lucina are also pretty handily in our favor IMO, as long as you don't stay in that middle spacing they like.
This is the only one I'll disagree with. There is a fundamental difference between Marth and Lucina (and one of the only reasons she isn't 100% a Marth clone): Lucina doesn't need the tipper, depending on her opponent's weight and how fast they fall, Lucina can KO them around 60-80 w/ a good forward smash (absent of the tipper and depending on the stage/position). Lucas is considered to be middle weight and a slow faller so you can see how that works out for him.

Lucina's F-smash has 65 BKB and 80 KBG while Marth's has 80 BKB at the tip (55 without tipper) and 80 KBG regardless of the tipper. Basically, compare their frame data. You'll have to fight them in similar ways, but keep in mind one is weaker once you're out of the tipper range (Marth) the other is pretty consistent despite how close/far you are from the tip (Lucina). This match up could fairly be even, but slightly for or against us isn't much of an exaggeration. Both characters require/allow for different methods of approaching.

Frame wise, their dodges, rolls, grabs, up-special, and a few forms of dancing blade are roughly 100% the same. The rest has some major or minor differences.

-

I greatly agree w/ your opinion of the Sonic, Bayo, Cloud, and Ryu MUs (my problemw/ Cloud is properly responding to his dash attack. Once you figure that out you can basically heavily camp him if needed). I've not had too much experience w/ Shiek, Falcon, or Rosa (but Lucas does have more recovering options than Ness, so he most likely fairs better than Ness would). And Ike is probably slightly in our favor (I think this MU was discussed a page or two ago).
 

gameplayzero

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And lastly, I'm pretty sure that the majority of the Lucas community agrees that Greninja is our worst matchup, correct me if I'm wrong though.
its hilarious because I just fought a greninja online (on anthers) just now and was wondering what the match up was like. I have a headache and was partially sick so I was playing idiotic at times (trying to get a kill only with up smash for example for a whole stock). Maybe not a good indicator. Regardless I saved the replays for further study even when I got beat down.

but once he got a read on my play style I was struggling at times to catch or kill him when he was ahead besides on a solid read. I know of another greninja that plays full on campy when he is ahead so thats going to be far worse. I didn't read the rest of the thread yet, so if this was discussed then i'll find it by the time anyone reads this post.
 
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gameplayzero

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I have a couple of replays from a few weeks ago that may be better analysis than "partially sick/headache/idiotic at times".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsRpZYd6NmA when it finishes uploading.

I wouldn't put Greninja as the absolute worst matchup. But it's not that far off.
thank you. And hopefully I didn't sound like I was make excuses during this set with my whole "sick" thing lol. I knew full well what I was getting into these matches and this all could have been avoided. Will not discredit every loss I had and would gladly challenge him again.

I just wish I wasn't so inconsistent from time to time. I'd lose mostly, then some matches I would space very well and focus to where it was close, then after that I would lose it and ruin everything lol. I think the biggest thing that throws me off is that PK magnet acts odd with the shuriken. When he did it against me I was wondering if was even worth absorbing since there was really no gain or threat from doing so (since healing is out of the question). That and I completely stopped recovering with PKT2 after he gimped me twice lol. My biggest regret was definitely not playing patiently enough and not walling out like I usually try to do.

I don't regret my upsmash spam usage. Cause once it hits.....mmm girl.
 
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PKBeam

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Found this on Reddit. Someone posted it a week or so ago. Feel free to commentate on what MUs you (dis)agree with and justify why. I might experiment w/ all of these throughout the next week.
It's hard to actually gauge what is being meant by these terms.
"Big advantage" could mean +3/70:30 or it could mean +2/60:40
I don't think Lucas +3s anybody in the roster atm.
this matchup spread looks like "import Ness MU spread" and "10 second theorycraft on characters with no MU exp.".
i can't really give a number for 40% of the roster because of inexperience but I will say:
  • i do not think we wreck Mac,
  • nor do we lose to Lucina (Marth is even) or Shulk,
  • Sonic/Olimar/Rosalina are not terrible MUs,
  • and Bayonetta is not even imo.
 

rocksareblue

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ah later this month well get a patch maybe theyll nerf or buff lucas so this mu chart can be different in a few weeks.
Accodring to a few accounts on twitter, Bayonetta was the only character with any notable nerfs (maybe one minor buff, but she was mostly nerfed).
 

rocksareblue

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I have a couple of replays from a few weeks ago that may be better analysis than "partially sick/headache/idiotic at times".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsRpZYd6NmA when it finishes uploading.

I wouldn't put Greninja as the absolute worst matchup. But it's not that far off.
Usually I get a bit of anxiety when I see someone being thrown and I want them to win, but these matches were thoroughly informative and entertaining. I noticed that when Greninja wasn't playing aggressively he got thrown easily. In general, mixing up the edge guard methods really helps, but it was definitely some great Lucas play. I'll totally be studying this set, thanks for uploading it!

Yea, Greninja is definitely one of our harder matchups. But not impossible.
 

frozentreasure

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While Australia is generally behind in high-level play, Waveguider is one of our best, and he was almost certainly playing Greninja about as well as you could; pretty much everything that's an issue for Lucas in the matchup got highlighted here, I think, in particular the hydro pump gimps and grab capacity. They were friendlies of a sort, but he's so far beyond me and most of my state that it makes little difference. The first stock of each game are the cleanest stocks I've ever taken off him in any game so far.
 

Sidereus

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While Australia is generally behind in high-level play, Waveguider is one of our best, and he was almost certainly playing Greninja about as well as you could; pretty much everything that's an issue for Lucas in the matchup got highlighted here, I think, in particular the hydro pump gimps and grab capacity. They were friendlies of a sort, but he's so far beyond me and most of my state that it makes little difference. The first stock of each game are the cleanest stocks I've ever taken off him in any game so far.
I've seen Waveguider play at BAM8 and he's definitely an incredible player, however, I found he was playing the matchup too aggressively. Lucas can't really approach Greninja too well if he shuriken camps, and we don't have the option to out zone him because of how far and fast shurikens are. I also think that he missed a lot of those hydro pump punishes, he could've, in theory, killed you every time you pk thundered. Not to say either of you weren't playing well, just that he could've done more things to make your life hell.
 

Sidereus

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So, turns out that if Cloud wants to limit camp you from "go" you kinda just lose, does anyone know what to do in this scenario?
 

PKBeam

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all you need to do is run up to him (max zair range) and most clouds will stop charging limit. you can zair the ones that don't.
cloud isn't that hard. probably -1.
 

FullMoon

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As someone who mains Greninja and plays Lucas from time to time I'm just gonna say that I do think Greninja beats Lucas but I rather doubt it's of sunflower boy's worst MUs.

The important things are that shurikens outrange your Z-Air and PK Fire while also not being able to be absorbed by PSI Magnet, so the camping game is in Greninja's favor especially considering his mobility allowing him to run away easier while Lucas isn't all that fast. Reflecting shurikens with F-Smash won't do much good either.

Lucas can be pretty annoying on Greninja's shield since our OoS options suck, however at the same time most of Lucas high damage conversions come from grabs and you can't really afford to miss many grabs against Greninja because you can eat some nasty punishes especially at low percentages.

It's worth noting that N-Air might not be too great in this MU because not only can you SDI out of it, Greninja has the added benefit of hitstun canceling and might even get to punish Lucas on hit depending on how it goes.

If you're sent offstage you better use your tether because if you're forced to use PK Thunder, unless the Greninja messes up you should be dead right there.

Overall I think Greninja beats Lucas when it comes to neutral and edgeguarding but Lucas can be very slippery so we can't really abuse him too much when we get the advantage. Lucas has some good damage racking of his own although it might be less effective on Greninja thanks to SSHC and Z-Air is still a really good spacing tool that outranges everything we have that is not a shuriken.

I'd say it's a -1 MU for Lucas at worst. If it helps, Taiheita did beat Lea at Umebura recently, although Lea isn't exactly the best Greninja around so who knows what the skill difference between the two is.
 

Sidereus

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all you need to do is run up to him (max zair range) and most clouds will stop charging limit. you can zair the ones that don't.
cloud isn't that hard. probably -1.
See, I'm the first to say that Cloud isn't a problem for Lucas. However, I'm talking about Clouds who will charge limit, use one of his ridiculously safe options, run away, rinse repeat until he gets limit. Cloud is faster, safer, and has more range than us, so doing this isn't difficult for him, I have no problem dealing with cloud otherwise, in fact I believe that without this we even win the matchup slightly. Max distance Zair might catch them the first time, you'll get literally 2%, he'll run away, and shield every time you're in the air near him since limit charging has no lag. Running up to him is really the best you can do, but every second you lose getting to him he's gaining limit, it's not as simple as you make it out to be
 

PKBeam

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See, I'm the first to say that Cloud isn't a problem for Lucas.
Going by the argument you outline in the rest of your post, I'm pretty sure he is?

ok, addressing the actual discussion.

what you're describing sounds like a -2 or a 65:35 MU:
"cloud charges limit > we approach > cloud uses one of his ridiculously safe options and escapes > repeat until he has limit"
that's not necessarily what will happen every time. and even then the MU is still doable when he has limit.Lucas is one of the characters with the tools to compete with Cloud. compare to bottom tier, in which some characters may actually have the problem you described, and hence might have a legitimate -2 MU.

so what tools do we have?
let me say this: at such a range, in a neutral setting, which one of cloud's options is truly "safe"?

if he runs away, you corner him and reset the situation with a positional advantage.
if he jumps away you get a free shot at a landing punish, and if nobody gets hurt then you reset the situation.
if he's just sticking his shield out as a pre-reaction to Zair or otherwise, you can run up FF sweetspot Fair it, which is safe on his shield and puts you in a good position.
but what if he uses an attack? at that point it's still a guessing game. almost no option in the game is ever safe if you get a read on it. many can be punished on reaction.

but after all of this, it's true that cloud can do this a little better than us, esp. with limit, hence why I think it's a losing MU.

I'd say it's a -1 MU for Lucas at worst. If it helps, Taiheita did beat Lea at Umebura recently, although Lea isn't exactly the best Greninja around so who knows what the skill difference between the two is.
I dunno man, your summary sounded like a pretty solid -1 description. You might even be able to argue a weak -2 there. I'm hovering between -1 and -2 myself atm and I recall Luco also saying that Greninja was one of our worst/worse MUs before, one or two months back.
 
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MrWhYYZ

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Greninja Hydro Pump gimps aren't that huge of a thread.
Lucas's PK-thunder lasts a while so if you see him going for it you can still hit yourself and recover if you get blown away.
Water shurikens are the biggest thread and you should never EVER play on Final destination.
 
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I used to use :4greninja: to counterpick the EarthBound kids. Ness was a cakewalk, but Lucas was more difficult. Multihit properties of moves like nair and PK Thunder were harder to deal with effectively, and Lucas can combo any fast faller like crazy. I would give it a 55:45 in Greninja's favor.
Now, regarding :4cloud:, the only move I have difficulty with is his nair. The others can be either DI'd with Lucas' high air speed to avoid combos, or spaced using PK Fire (and if there's a Blade Beam out, then PSI Magnet.) Limit camping is annoying, but there are enough approach mixups (like FF ftilt or a zair) to wither pressure shield or bait into a combo.
 

frozentreasure

Smash Apprentice
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frozentreasure
Greninja Hydro Pump gimps aren't that huge of a thread.
Lucas's PK-thunder lasts a while so if you see him going for it you can still hit yourself and recover if you get blown away.
Water shurikens are the biggest thread and you should never EVER play on Final destination.
There are many more outcomes to being hit by Hydro Pump than just being in a different place than you were when you started PK Thunder.
 

FullMoon

i'm just joking with you
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INFullMoon
Greninja Hydro Pump gimps aren't that huge of a thread.
Lucas's PK-thunder lasts a while so if you see him going for it you can still hit yourself and recover if you get blown away.
Water shurikens are the biggest thread and you should never EVER play on Final destination.
Things that can happen when you're hit with Hydro Pump during PK Thunder:

1 - The water sends Lucas into a an angle that might cause him to hit the PK Thunder at the wrong time and kill himself, though this happens more with Ness

2 - Even if you do hit yourself with the PK Thunder still it's probably gonna mess your angle a fair bit and might cause you to overshoot the ledge and leave yourself open for a punish

3 - You begin PK Thunder II before the water hits you but the windbox makes you overshoot the ledge and get punished.

4 - The water pushes you too far to be able to recover because Lucas' PK Thunder is significantly slower than Ness'

Even if it might not outright gimp you it's still not a situation you want to be placed in.

Keep in mind windboxes' push effect is stronger the more damage you have and they're also affected by rage, so if Lucas is at a high enough percentage it's very likely that he's gonna be sent too far for the PK Thunder to be able to get to him in time to make a proper recovery.
 
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