Oasis Mafia - Over!

[BoomFrog]

As I explained to you his opportunistic push on me made me confident that he was scum. Obviously we don't know what would have happened in the hypothetical universe where the new train goes on Jack for example but I think I would have felt the same way about his switch. It wasn't OMGUS.

I didn't follow Laser, he followed me. Four posts before LaserGuy voted I called you out. #2147 The only reason I didn't vote right then is that I was waiting for your reply.

 

[Z25]

I really can’t see your switch. There was a lot of discussion yesterday on how this was probably the wrong play yesterday and yet your were completely against that idea. Why switch now?

 

[Sabrar]

BoomFrog : you haven't called me out. You know very little about me. Why haven't you addressed that point at any time?

 

[Z25]

Also ranmaru you think wisp is scum. Why does scum wisp claim such an absurd role, again why do they also claim tokens and why start a train On their scumate when Up and Boom were considered a lock for lynching

 

[Sabrar]

Anyway i'm off to bed. If I get lynched BoomFrog will claim that it was all my fault. You should just take him by his word and lynch him. Then you can lynch UP. Last scum is probably Pokechu. Or not.

 

[ranmaru]

I really can’t see your switch. There was a lot of discussion yesterday on how this was probably the wrong play yesterday and yet your were completely against that idea. Why switch now?

I was really confident in UP, it's possible he's still scum. Yet my read on Boom was wavering, but I was confident in UP being scum. Before my switch, I was considering Boom/Laser but Wisp's #2207 felt off to me, which is why I questioned it. He backed of Sabrar too easily. Then I remembered that, Sabrar too, was also very lacking in their play today. Then I considered that it might be simpler to consider a team of [Sabrar,Wisp].

 

[ranmaru]

Also ranmaru you think wisp is scum. Why does scum wisp claim such an absurd role, again why do they also claim tokens and why start a train On their scumate when Up and Boom were considered a lock for lynching

To avoid a lynch. He didn't start the train, Laser did. He joined it though, and quickly backed off when I mentioned Boom/Laser as a possibility.

 

[ranmaru]

Now you have to consider that my motivation for switching is to ensure we get the correct lynch. I would have likely stayed on UP, but recent events made me reconsider.

 

[Wiisp]

Wait is Ranmaru making bad associations again?
Did I just become a wolf again?

 

[Wiisp]

Anyway i'm off to bed. If I get lynched BoomFrog will claim that it was all my fault. You should just take him by his word and lynch him. Then you can lynch UP. Last scum is probably Pokechu. Or not.

Man I really dislike this post

 

[ranmaru]

Now, the thing with switching constantly, makes me harder to read. I am aware of that fact, yet I still do it because I believe I'll eventually arrive at a scum lynch. Otherwise, I could just not do that and stay on UP, and keep the status quo going. I want us to have the best lynch, but, the best lynch is only a lynch of scum.

 

[ranmaru]

Wiisp How did you and Sabrar become lovers?

 

[BoomFrog]

I really can’t see your switch. There was a lot of discussion yesterday on how this was probably the wrong play yesterday and yet your were completely against that idea. Why switch now?

Because UP came in and explained a lot of the context that I was missing. I thought his absence EoD D1 and middle of D2 were scum motivated, but since they were IRL motivated that changes a lot. I'm honestly still doubting UP, but Sabrar has reacted very poorly to the pressure so that has strengthened my read there.

 

[Wiisp]

I agree, I don't think town!you could even play any other way if you wanted to

Maybe my read swap of sabrar was premature tho

 

[Jackrito]

I'm still at work and will be for 3 hours. I find Ranmaru train if thought confusing as hell to follow. I'm not calling it scummy I just struggle to understand how he jumps from person to person so easily. I reread today properly once done work and then vote. Sort of wish I did last night to end it because this got real messy.

 

[Wiisp]

Wiisp How did you and Sabrar become lovers?

My ability
I am the town compulsive seeker
I must choose a target every night, until I find the person with the flavor Exlight, once I find him, we become "star-crossed lovers" and as long as one of either him or I are alive, we die in place of the other

 

[BoomFrog]

Wiisp can you clarify. If we lynch you only Sabrar dies, right?

 

[Pokechu]

Unvote
##Laser

Looking back at D1 I don't like how Laser was scumreading Maven. It makes his readlists easier because it's one less person to have to justify a read on (because Maven had no posts) and it's also slimy because Maven is a blank slate, there's no way to judge him. To want him over anyone else, someone who could legitimately be scumread, shows that you only have an interest in lynching - specifically, mislynching. Maven and 3DSNinja were Laser's bottom 2 D1 and we know how the latter turned out.

I'd probably move him to maybe a scum lean at this point, but I don't think I'd prefer him over 3DS or Maven.

I'm not going to do a full reads list because I did one on Thursday which is (checks) 13 pages ago. Fast moving game. I should have stuck the emojis.

Town
LaserGuy
Ranmaru
Sabrar
Z25
pythag
Wiisp
Jackrito
BoomFrog
UP
Maven
3DS
Scum

These posts were posted together late D1, the first is in response to Ran asking Laser his read of Boom. Laser is pretty focused on Maven and 3DS (I know both are town).
However, 5 posts after the readlist, this is start of D2 now, Laser posts this

Probably Jackrito.

-Their vote on 3DS is very opportunistic. He was reading 3DS as unlikely to be scum in #263, #356, #418, then when he sees that you are serious about pushing Ninja, flips his opinion of him and supports the lynch.
-He is being deliberately slippery/hedgy in his analysis to avoid committing to any strong positions. E.g. #54, #155, #314, #356, #621. I feel like he is more interested in keeping on good terms with you and Wiisp than with actually trying to solve the game.

##Jackrito

I am thinking about Z25 as I don't like basically any of their content today. The rolefishing he was doing pings me a lot. Wiisp has made some good points about him as well. I will try to do a full reread of him in my evening post.

UP and Maven slot are still on my radar. I'm liking BoomFrog more at the moment.



Almost like I have limited opportunities to post and can't monitor the thread constantly so I'm always trying to catch up. I'm sure I've mentioned this before at some point or other. I had the same problem in that game we played in Serene Forest and you scumread for me it then too (we were both Town). I think the people who are using this to scumread me (particularly Jack) are probably looking for an excuse to push me without needing to analyse what I've actually posted.

he already has two new avenues, aside from Maven and UP, his bottom two scum after 3DSNinja. He doesn't say anything about their slots, just that they're 'still on his radar'. Later in the day he posts this readlist

At this moment, I'm looking at:

Town
LaserGuy
Ranmaru
Sabrar
Wiisp
Z25
BoomFrog
UP
Maven/Pokechu
Jackrito
Scum

Still has Maven sitting as scum and not really resolving his UP scumread. Why is Maven so low if there's no way to analyze his posts? Pursing through Laser's ISO I found this thought with regards to Maven

Maven has been mostly away from he game but I haven't liked basically any of the posts that he's actually contributed. #771 in particular rubbed me the wrong way.

771 is Maven's most thorough post yet all Laser has to justify such a low ranking of him is that it "rubbed him the wrong way." Pre-3DS lynch Laser was also quick to tie him to Ninja

Maven:
Null. I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's just busy/unavailable/whatever but I would really like to see something out of him. If 3DS flips scum, Maven being a buddy is definitely one possibility I'm considering as newbie scum floundering with an absent partner is definitely an explanation that seems plausible to me.

This shows lack of motivation and is preemptive imo because you're not even using real content to support your stances, just moreso metadata. This post came earlier in D1 which explains why Maven is null and not scum like in the other quotes pulled from D1. Still, from these quotes it feels like to me that he wants an easy 'out' (ranking Maven low). In case Laser is scum with Poy, this new Jack avenue gives him reason to put Poy a little higher on the readslist, not as imperative.

UP:

Spoiler

-I like his opening. Feels like he wants to progress the game. The vote switch is NAI. I was reading him as pretty strong Town at this stage and the sequence up to #93 still looks okay to me.
-So the list in #95 is one of the bones of contention with this slot. #94 says I'm slightly more scummy than null at 3rd to the bottom. Some of the positions here are weird... Jackrito and Maven have barely posted at this point I think.
-Jumps pretty quickly to 3DS as scum in #149-167.
-The analysis in #180 seems to ignore the fact that 3DS is quite evidently a newbie and would not be thinking in these sophisticated terms. The idea that it was newbie Town or newbie scum just made a mistake never seems to have occurred to him.
-#201. I don't like this case on Sabrar. There's nothing in Sabrar's tone in his early posting to suggest that he is trying to be serious here.
-#290. The no-reasoning vote that is never really followed up on bothers me. In #457 he completely drops the point without any real explanation.
-UP's defense to Sabrar's case in #372 is marginal. He focuses on that Sabar uses the word "weird" as though Sabrar did not follow up immediately with what he found problematic with the point. And anyway, sometimes things aren't obviously Town or scum motivated. Sometimes they are just "weird".
-UP doesn't seem to understand the issue with the "old" list in #95. UP seems experienced so I find it hard to believe he wouldn't realize why people are giving him a hard time about this. I do get the feeling that he threw most of the middle names there more or less at random and UP is after-the-fact rationalizing it. Most of his reads in his new list are really difficult to understand as well. The ordering in this list does not seem that convincing either. Wiisp and Sabrar do a good job covering the problems with this. I don't like in #588, #595 that UP appears to be evading Sabrar's line of questioning on this by focusing on word choice (post hoc) without actually addressing the point itself. UP trying hard to change the subject in #600.

This entire sequence is where I feel UP is being the most slippery. I think he's probably a good enough player to know that there's a problem with the early read list and is trying to dodge the issue.

-#472 is bad. BoomFrog's question (about the non-vote) is completely legitimate and UP ought to be able to provide an explanation for it. His later attempt at explaining this is that it was a sort of reaction test, except it doesn't really work as a reaction test when you preface it with "no supplied reasoning is intentional". The only reactions he got were when people realized that "no supplied reasoning" actually meant "no reasoning". UP tries to explain this again over 1000 posts later, in #1558, and doesn't really line up with his earlier comments (which were more that he wanted to stir the pot than anything else).
-I hate reads like #581. WIFOMy and vacuous. Rescinded later in #601 for similarly bad reasons.
-UP peaces out of D1.

-I'm really skeptical of the generous Maven read. But at least UP actually has a reason for why he thinks this.
-UP's speculation in D2 about multiball and/or indies mildly pings me. My impression is that Town doesn't usually jump to these sorts of speculations without evidence.

To me the most problematic part is that UP's reads don't seem to be well-motivated. Sabrar and Wiisp did a good job of taking this apart in the middle of D1 with reference to the early reads list, but even the later ones seem hard for me to follow how his ordering is produced. UP is very evasive on this point.

Putting him as likely scum. I think I'd prefer UP over BoomFrog given the choice.

I want to take a close look at Pokechu next. I've been skimming a lot of their stuff because their font color hurts my eyes and I don't see an easy way to change it. Won't get to this until tomorrow though.

However, he nails Poyzin dead to rights here, pegging him as 'likely scum'. This is shown in what I believe is his most recent reads list.

Town
LaserGuy
Ranmaru
Sabrar
Wiisp

Pokechu
Z25
BoomFrog

Jackrito
UP
Scum

He places me a bit higher, which I think is null because the push on Maven was weird nonetheless. His distaste of Poy's slot was further shown last night when he voted for him. He says a little about Sabrar but concludes him being town.

Was meaning to put this down earlier but I had it in my head this would have pushed us to L-1. Anyway.
##UtopianPoyzin




Coming back to this.

While Sabrar has been active D2, he definitely hasn't been as assertive as I might expect. I think #1801 and #1808 are sort of the key posts to understanding where he's at right now (this may also relate to the post below, now that I think about it). He's absolutely confident in his read on UP and is frustrated that he isn't able to rally the troops as effectively as he'd like, and that people are still looking for reads list and whatnot when, as far as he's concerned, there's a winning plan on the board and all we need to do is execute the right moves.

FWIW, I think this is much more likely coming from Town Sabrar. As mafia he would feel the need to go through the motions since he'd know his plan would be wrong and would need a paper trail when things went sideways for Town.



Which game was this from? This sounds familiar but I don't remember the context in which it was said.

However, he comes in with 2151 today

Wow, what a mess.

My first thought is that I'm not a huge fan of either of these wagons at the moment. Of the two, I think it's more likely that UP is still mafia, but his recent posting has looked notably better and his tone feels much more natural. BoomFrog... I don't think see how this plan where BoomFrog is basically offering to get lynched in place of UP really makes a lot of sense if he is mafia, other than possibly as a really desperate gambit to try to scrape together enough townie credit to avoid the lynch... but I don't know that Boom would have felt the need to go there rather than just try to tip the scale a little bit by pushing against UP. I don't see it likely that these two are buddies at all. IMHO it's more likely that these are both Town wagons than both scum.

I think if we desperately need to break the tension and resolve this situation, IMHO the best play is to lynch UP. I'll support that lynch if that's where we are looking at deadline.

That said, I think it's probably in our best interests to take a serious look at someone outside these two. I'm not really going to try to make a case here... I've just got a couple of small pings that probably don't amount to much, but it's enough to make me think maybe I've been reading him wrong. This feels right to me:

##Sabrar

And suddenly, with Poy, the person Laser has probably pushed the most and the furthest (may be forgetting someone), he's not a "huge fan." Even though Poy was dead last in his most recent readslist, Laser is not a fan. He only wants to lynch Poy "if we desperately need to." However, he shifts gears with Sabrar completely, and considering he moved his vote to Wiisp when Wiisp revealed his switcharoo, Laser is serious with this push. Laser hesitates to vote Poyzin despite pegging him as scum and refocuses on Sabrar, someone he's been townreading the whole game. This pushes me towards a UP/Laser team.

 

[Jackrito]

I've explained the first part here. Then during the night we became Star-Crossed Lovers and with that Lyncher is very probably out. And I liked his content.

What the hell are star crossed lovers last time I heard that it meant one is scum and one town so on reverse sides. Like in Romeo and Juliet.

 

[Wiisp]

Wiisp can you clarify. If we lynch you only Sabrar dies, right?

Yes only sabrar will die

 

[Z25]

Now you have to consider that my motivation for switching is to ensure we get the correct lynch. I would have likely stayed on UP, but recent events made me reconsider.

I’ll definitely be considering everything after this phase.

But if that’s the route the day is going, then UtopianPoyzin i really hope you contribute more to this game.

And I really hope this flips gives us information.

 

[ranmaru]

Jackrito If you find it confusing, you can simply ask me. This is consistent in my town play because in my early days, I've always tunneled as town, but then I'd be wrong. So I became more comfortable with switching to avoid tunneling. You can see a major example of this in my team mafia game on Mafia Scum, and Cross Over.

 

[Wiisp]

I swear Pikachu and lasor are in there own game just reading while the world burns around them

 

[Wiisp]

Sabrar
Wait did you know about my ability? Did I ever mention star crossed lovers? I can't remember

 

[ranmaru]

If you search for it, Sabrar is the first to mention it.

 

[Wiisp]

If you search for it, Sabrar is the first to mention it.

Hmm, can you link the post, else I'll find it when I get home

 

[Z25]

Because UP came in and explained a lot of the context that I was missing. I thought his absence EoD D1 and middle of D2 were scum motivated, but since they were IRL motivated that changes a lot. I'm honestly still doubting UP, but Sabrar has reacted very poorly to the pressure so that has strengthened my read there.

That was aimed at Ran but I don’t mind having your thoughts.

My ability
I am the town compulsive seeker
I must choose a target every night, until I find the person with the flavor Exlight, once I find him, we become "star-crossed lovers" and as long as one of either him or I are alive, we die in place of the other

I was honestly thinking this was your role fits very well with your early behavior.

What the hell are star crossed lovers last time I heard that it meant one is scum and one town so on reverse sides. Like in Romeo and Juliet.

Nah, not always. We’ve had this role at play before and it’s been town and town. I haven’t seen any with scum and town, but I could them as town if that’s their role.

 

[ranmaru]

I've explained the first part here. Then during the night we became Star-Crossed Lovers and with that Lyncher is very probably out. And I liked his content.

 

[ranmaru]

I agree, I don't think town!you could even play any other way if you wanted to

Maybe my read swap of sabrar was premature tho

Yeah, what's your overall read of Sabrar now? Also, can you explain to me your read on UP?

 

[BoomFrog]

I swear Pikachu and lasor are in there own game just reading while the world burns around them

Laser was 1st or 2nd on the Sabrar wagon depending on how you count, he's participating in the real issues. Pokechu Between lynching Me or Sabrar, who do you choose?

 

[BoomFrog]

BoomFrog : you haven't called me out. You know very little about me. Why haven't you addressed that point at any time?

I know you plenty. We've played at least a dozen games together and been scum together. I mean yeah, if you aren't scum this game I've got zero idea how to read you. I guess we'll see.

 

[Wiisp]

so before I lose this thought
don't really think Boom/Sabrar is a thing with Boom just randomly jumping on that train

 

[Pokechu]

Pokechu Pokechu Between lynching Me or Sabrar, who do you choose?

Is this a trick question? I wouldn't vote.

Or, to specify, I'd just stay where I am. Laser or Poy. If I'm scumreading Laser and he's gone against both of you then I don't think it makes much sense for me to be eager to join either wagon

Actually I think I should move back to Poy because me gunning for Laser like that was pretty ambitious and I don't think many are likely to follow

Unvote
##Poy

 

[Wiisp]

I followed :'(

 

[Pokechu]

I followed :'(

yeah I remember that. I appreciate the support. It would be great if next time we could sit on the sideline and watch the world burn together :'^)

LMAO

but I just meant it as like end of day lynch. Would it really be Laser? I doubt it. Out of Laser/Poy I think Poy's more likely to get a general lynch consensus so that's where I think I should focus my efforts

 

[Pokechu]

so yeah who wants to hop off these busted ass wagons with me?!???!!?!?!?!

reminder deadline in about 4 hours etc etc would be nice to get some posts going

 

[Wiisp]

wait
deadline is not actually in 4 hours is it?

 

[Wiisp]

Xivii
new VC plz

 

[Pokechu]

Day 2 Ends: Tuesday, April 28, 2020, 11:59 pm

I'm assuming this is in CST (best time zone) and for us folks there it's 7:54 PM right now

 

[Pokechu]

I'm assuming this is in CST (best time zone) and for us folks there it's 7:54 PM right now

oh actually deadline is in THREE hours! damn where everyone go????