Oasis Mafia - Over!

[BoomFrog]

##Unvote Oh, huh.. so we vote wiisp?

 

[Wiisp]

If u want to kill sabrar, then yes

 

[BoomFrog]

Sabrar
I take the kill for you, and you take the kill for me

Not to get side tracked, but why did you claim the death immunity instead of just letting scum potentially kill the wrong target?

 

[BoomFrog]

Alright...

##Wiisp

 

[Wiisp]

I mean I wasn't trying to bait a sabrar kill, I just wanted people to leave me alone

 

[Sabrar]

Boom taking LaserGuy's bait, nice.
We vote out Boom today.

 

[Sabrar]

##Unvote

10 characters

 

[Wiisp]

Work now, be back later

 

[BoomFrog]

Town-sabrar has more doubt then this. Ran had been surprisingly calm and reasonable which indicates possible town-ran. I need to think what other teams are possible.

 

[BoomFrog]

Sabrar
I take the kill for you, and you take the kill for me

LaserGuy Vote Wiisp to lynch Sabrar.

 

[Pokechu]

Boom taking LaserGuy's bait, nice.
We vote out Boom today.

Do you agree that #2,151 wasn't a good post? I think that it could be a good thing to focus on other slots, aside from Boom/UP. But Laser doesn't actually get that going much, aside from a weak vote on you. And I say weak because his justification is "can't make a case but.... maybe?"

exactly like the memes I said earlier!!! LOL putting our beds together in minecraft!!!! lmao "Sab is town... unless?"

Like even though I like a lot of the content you put out today, I could find some things to pick an issue with. Feels very unmotivated and noncommittal of Laser to just put the vote out, and I think it's worse when he was previously townreading the slot. Like there has to be a reason you're voting the slot now if you liked it in the past. The fact he isn't displaying the progression, a few posts that changed his mind, shows that he's not very interested in making real pushes imo

Also how are you feeling wrt Poy/Boom, Sab? In the quote above you want to lynch Boom. But you also are very confident UP is scum

WTF is this question? UP is scum.

Previously in the phase you felt Boom could be town

Because it is possible that Boom is town. What other reason did you expect?
I know your opinion of Boom, I know others' opinion of Boom and I'm still not 100% convinced because I played with him a bit more than you.

Since you want to lynch Boom first now could I ask why? Did you resolve this quote ?

I'm pretty sure this is a clue to Boom's alignment I just have to figure out how.

Would be great to hear if you figured it out!

 

[Sabrar]

Do you agree that #2,151 wasn't a good post?

I have an idea about #2151. If it's true then it was a fantastic post because it generated exactly the kind of response that LaserGuy was fishing for. If it's not true then I officially know nothing about nothing because that 'reasoning' from LaserGuy was just so uncharacteristic for him, I simply cannot see it.

Yes, I'm confident that UP is scum. I'm now also confident that Boom is scum. Out of the two Boom is more dangerous, that's why we lynch him first.

I didn't have the time for the last part because we struggle with some pretty urgent deadlines today. I will think about this evening.

 

[BoomFrog]

Just reread lasers 2151, I'm confident he's sincere.

 

[Sabrar]

I guess we wait and see.

 

[BoomFrog]

Ran+Sab still makes the most sense. Wiisp This is why the game has been so crazy feeling. Sab and Ran are both naturally confident, but they are playing caricatures of themselves, that's why they are both 100% confident this game. Ran maybe doesn't have this level of wolf play by himself but Ran's confidence plus Sabrar's coaching could be this good.

 

[Z25]

Wait derp I can't Lynch sabrar for reasons
##Boom
Woops

Hmm maybe I should claim to clear things up after making a statement like that

Sabrar
I take the kill for you, and you take the kill for me

What? So if you vote him you die? I saw that role on the wiki too the other day but don’t recall the name. Why are there also phases where you are immune to lynching though?

 

[Z25]

What? So if you vote him you die? I saw that role on the wiki too the other day but don’t recall the name. Why are there also phases where you are immune to lynching though?

Alright I see now. That is a very interesting claim. I honestly can’t see scum Wiisp take a chance with this this unless as scum they gained some advantage to doing this but I doubt that.

 

[Wiisp]

I'm not immune, it was to get people off me and stir reactions

I just couldn't die unless u lynched Sabrar

 

[LaserGuy]

Lasor where is the team if UP/Boom/You are all town

Sabrar/Pikechu/ZDS?

Not sure about Z being in there. Could be.

Do you agree that #2,151 wasn't a good post? I think that it could be a good thing to focus on other slots, aside from Boom/UP. But Laser doesn't actually get that going much, aside from a weak vote on you. And I say weak because his justification is "can't make a case but.... maybe?"

So why do you think I made that post?

What? So if you vote him you die? I saw that role on the wiki too the other day but don’t recall the name. Why are there also phases where you are immune to lynching though?

I think Wiisp is saying that (at least for D2?) that targeting them is reversed. Target Wiisp -> Sabrar. Target Sabrar -> Wiisp. Kind of like a bus driver, though I've never seen it apply to voting.

If u want to kill sabrar, then yes

Umm... okay.


##Wiisp

 

[Jackrito]

That is a weird role but I sort of believe it and makes sense with you looking for exlight eariler.

 

[Wiisp]

I probably had to claim anyways since interest in sabrar was showing and I may not necessarily believe he is town or mafia 100% but I'm not killing myself

 

[BoomFrog]

I probably had to claim anyways since interest in sabrar was showing and I may not necessarily believe he is town or mafia 100% but I'm not killing myself

Are you saying you won't self vote to lynch Sabrar today? Why not if you were willing to Vote Sabrar why not self-vote?

 

[BoomFrog]

I guess we wait and see.

k. You were wrong. Now what?

 

[Z25]

Are you saying you won't self vote to lynch Sabrar today? Why not if you were willing to Vote Sabrar why not self-vote?

Guess their claim is that they die if they do and Sabrar lives. But if Wisp is voted for, Sabrar dies

 

[Sabrar]

k. You were wrong. Now what?

Now I'm perplexed. LaserGuy's 'explanation is completely out of character.

I'm not really going to try to make a case here...

I've just got a couple of small pings

that probably don't amount to much,

but it's enough to make me think maybe I've been reading him wrong.

This feels right to me:

He spends 5 sentences or half-sentences to say the same thing over and over again, i.e. that he has nothing concrete and it is just a hunch. Can you tell me when he ever did that?

I think you were extremely eager to jump on any train that didn't involve UP or yourself. You're doing the 180 really bad, it is believable from Ran but not you. I'm guessing (or at least hoping) that mislynching me with a train started so late in the day would require all 3 scum and therefore town would have a good PoE later.

 

[Sabrar]

Just a note: deadline is in little less than 10 hours. I will hopefully be asleep for the last 6. I might wake up early and be here for the last 10-20 minutes but I'm not setting an alarm. Do with that information what you will.

 

[Jackrito]

Are you saying you won't self vote to lynch Sabrar today? Why not if you were willing to Vote Sabrar why not self-vote?

I agree with this actually

 

[ranmaru]

I'm going to sleep on it and maybe I change my mind

What's your conclusion?

 

[Jackrito]

What's your conclusion?

Not much of one tbh because of how chaotic it got. I still feel boom is more likely then UP but I don't trust UP in the long term even if town. Based off what he said.

Wisp and Sabrar is weird as well I want to see Wisp reply to the question. at work current so will reply in a bit

 

[Xivii]

Vote Count 2.6


Boom (3) - UP, Z25, Wisp [L-2]


Wisp (2) - Boom, Laser


UP (1) - Ran


Laser (1) - Jack


Z25 (1) - Chu


Not Voting (1)
Sabrar
​

Spoiler: History

P33-P38
UP #Z25
Wisp #Boom
Boom #UP
Ran #Boom
Laser #Jack
Z25 #Laser
Jack #Laser
Ran #Unv

P39-P40
Ran #Boom
UP #Boom
Up #Unv
Up #Boom

P41-P44
Chu #Z25
Wisp #UP
Sabrar #UP

P45
Wisp #Boom

P46-P48
Z25 #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
UP #Ran

P48-P55
Laser #UP
Ran #Unv
Z25 #Boom
Ran #UP
Boom #Unv
Laser #Sabrar
Wisp #Sabrar
Wisp #Boom
Boom #Sabrar
Boom #Unv
Boom #Wisp
Sabrar #Unv
Laser #Wisp

Notes
None

Players and Events
Link

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to execute!

Day 2 Ends: Tuesday, April 28, 2020, 11:59 pm

 

[ranmaru]

I think UP has successfully sowed chaos in the town and this is the result. I'm trying to think rationally, if it's possible for him to be town. Yet remember: He hasn't done these things to gain reactions and help his own reads. He has done this to help his own survival. It's much different than Laser's gambit, who showed he had a pro-town reason for doing so after the fact in early game. Here it's 'I had been gone in Day 1 and Day 2 due to IRL' when the fact is, he was posting without any frustration in Day 1. Tell me, has a town UP gone this far to blatantly stir up the town, only to do nothing afterwards?

 

[Pokechu]

So why do you think I made that post?

I'm not sure. That's why I was asking Sab LMAO

baiting a response makes sense but given that you’re still on Sab’s wagon it can't be that. And considering that you've not really shown suspicious of Sabrar prior, it makes it hard to find where your head is at. Your vote was really just because Sab pinged you and I'm not following that over lynching Poy toDay.

This push against Sab is just weird. Boom at least had a handful of posts displaying his concerns with Sabrar (#1108 comes to mind). But even him I don't like hopping on the wagon when earleir he had Sab as town

No, UP is scum, you are town.

Not very consistent and definitely not getting me off Poy

Unvote
##Poyzin

 

[ranmaru]

I'm also thinking that Boom had a slight town tell there. I just don't think if UP and Boom are the team, that after UP tries to save him by being distracting, that Boom does the same thing in return, only to make a bad case on me afterwards. I don't see how it's beneficial to scum if they are both scum. It won't gain him any traction. For their own survival, it would make more sense if Boom let UP be hammered. The only thing is that his #2107 is the most forced reads I have seen, yet also seems to be coming from a sense of paranoia. (That I don't think I've ever seen from Boom, at least I can't recall such a 180 from him in Crossover when he was scum, I feel like he let me just push lynches) In the end, the play doesn't really help me solidify real reads on others as of yet.

This doesn't change my read of UP, because it doesn't invalidate his actions in thread in the game, and his motivations in those times. If people really doubt that, I urge them to go re-read UP, and consider if there is town motivation instead of scum motivation, and why.

 

[ranmaru]

UtopianPoyzin Why did you sit back and do nothing on Day 1? (You were talking to Maven so this is intentional)
LaserGuy What pinged you about Sabrar? You explained to me this was town sabrar. Can you explain what changes in that case?

 

[ranmaru]

Was meaning to put this down earlier but I had it in my head this would have pushed us to L-1. Anyway.
##UtopianPoyzin




Coming back to this.

While Sabrar has been active D2, he definitely hasn't been as assertive as I might expect. I think #1801 and #1808 are sort of the key posts to understanding where he's at right now (this may also relate to the post below, now that I think about it). He's absolutely confident in his read on UP and is frustrated that he isn't able to rally the troops as effectively as he'd like, and that people are still looking for reads list and whatnot when, as far as he's concerned, there's a winning plan on the board and all we need to do is execute the right moves.

FWIW, I think this is much more likely coming from Town Sabrar. As mafia he would feel the need to go through the motions since he'd know his plan would be wrong and would need a paper trail when things went sideways for Town.



Which game was this from? This sounds familiar but I don't remember the context in which it was said.

Something about this and Laser's Sabrar vote post rubs me the wrong way. I don't know what.

 

[ranmaru]

I've changed my mind. I know what rubs me the wrong way. Laser not commenting on Sabrar v Boom on Day 1, lines up with the idea that Boom and Laser are scum together, and Laser votes UP as a counter wagon to Boom, and now votes Sabrar after Boom's #2107 to save him. I've been liking his content but his vote timing, always is coming off as opportunistic. From a [two man team] standpoint, it doesn't make sense from Boom!scum, but from a [three man team] standpoint, it does if we factor in Laser. So I think Boom is likely scum here.

 

[BoomFrog]

Damn, Ran being really reasonable here. At least pokechou found an excuse to back up his scummate.

ranmaru I can be convinced you are town, I just know we are getting snowed and you being power wolf fits that really well. The team might be z25, Sabrar, pokechou.

Like you said before, who are UPs teammates? No one is defending him. People who preferred me are not preferring sabrar.

 

[BoomFrog]

Woops, missed the last post, nevermind. You just had to work up to an excuse.

 

[Pokechu]

Damn, Ran being really reasonable here. At least pokechou found an excuse to back up his scummate.

ranmaru I can be convinced you are town, I just know we are getting snowed and you being power wolf fits that really well. The team might be z25, Sabrar, pokechou.

Like you said before, who are UPs teammates? No one is defending him. People who preferred me are not preferring sabrar.

What post is the bolded referring to? Who's the teammate I defended and what was my excuse? (Assuming the teammate is one of Z or Sab based off this post but I don't particularly recall really defending either. Def not Z)

And what is the underlined supposed to mean? Can you clarify? I think the wording's throwing me off.

What's your opinion on UP's scum chum in a two!scum world?

 

[Wiisp]

Lasor and Boom?
Kinda feeling that now