Oasis Mafia - Over!

[BoomFrog]

UtopianPoyzin

 

[BoomFrog]

Woops...

UtopianPoyzin : Remember when your said you promise to explain your reads list of I explained something else and I did it and you didn't hold up your side of the deal? Why was that?

Also why the two long disappearances? Especially for EoD D1?

 

[LaserGuy]

Was meaning to put this down earlier but I had it in my head this would have pushed us to L-1. Anyway.
##UtopianPoyzin

LaserGuy Thoughts on Sabrars play D2?

Coming back to this.

While Sabrar has been active D2, he definitely hasn't been as assertive as I might expect. I think #1801 and #1808 are sort of the key posts to understanding where he's at right now (this may also relate to the post below, now that I think about it). He's absolutely confident in his read on UP and is frustrated that he isn't able to rally the troops as effectively as he'd like, and that people are still looking for reads list and whatnot when, as far as he's concerned, there's a winning plan on the board and all we need to do is execute the right moves.

FWIW, I think this is much more likely coming from Town Sabrar. As mafia he would feel the need to go through the motions since he'd know his plan would be wrong and would need a paper trail when things went sideways for Town.

That's me being 1000% sure. I hope LaserGuy remembers the reference.

Which game was this from? This sounds familiar but I don't remember the context in which it was said.

 

[Sabrar]

Which game was this from? This sounds familiar but I don't remember the context in which it was said.

Matrix game when I thought Madge was Cop.

 

[Z25]

I know that contradicts what I said previously about Boom looking good, but I'm willing to write it off because town has been absolutely useless during my absence. I warned about it on D1, and it's ****ing happening again. Nobody can get their head out of their ass and actually try to look around to find other potential scum.

I don't think that Boom can be scum because there is literally no counterargument against it. Every single post has basically been about "iS iT bOoM oR uP?!!?!1". Awful stuff. Everybody was obsessed with 3DS and barely anybody stood up for him. Here we have 100% consensus that scum MUST be in Boom or UP. No use looking elsewhere. Some names were thrown about but nobody seemed to be looking for the third, because there IS a third scummer here. You can cover your ears and say "lalala" but there are three scum in the mafia faction. And the fact that everybody has convinced themselves that they're good at the game and that both me and Boom are scum is even more baffling, especially after town suffered defeat to the mafia after mislynching 3DS. And for that, gg. Good job scum, you really got yourself a good one after taking advantage of town's foolishness. I have no reason to continue playing, and have lost complete inspiration to actually try anymore. I'm still going to finish this game off, but this is only because you deserve to hear something from my slot.

I thought back on my Wiisp read and I realized that you all have been giving them a hall pass to go about the game without ever being suspected. Z25 is town here because of their classic towntells. Pokechu is also probably town. Jackrito is also probably town. Can't say the same about anybody else. Boom is probably town due to the ****ty situation that they've found themselves in with absolutely no support, but I cannot make that guarantee because the mafia are all gunning for my lynch anyway. But **** it, it's just another game where I've been mislynched D2 to add to the pile.

So did you miss the part where we were also discussing Sabrar and Laser?

Because not all the discussion has been about you.

This page of posts will be very useful I think down the line but not for just your slot.

Anyway what’s important now is, your Wisp thoughts? Why are they scum?

Do you think Scum Wisp really gets tokens and then hides the details? That be easy cred but they refused to comment on what the tokens are. Likely because they help town, and aren’t from a scum point of view.

What about their behavior strikes you as odd? Has there day one content really come from a scum POV? If anything a lot of their statements I can’t see scum Wiisp make, but let’s hear your thoughts.

 

[Z25]

Man with the frustration and wine between UP and Boom’s posts I must be at a five star dinning experience.

Like what the actual hell is going on these past few pages.

It’s either frustrated scum Boom, or Frustrated town Boom, or Frustrated Scum Up or town Up.

Or somehow both. Like what the ****?
I would honestly say UP is a third party jester but the OP says that would not be in the game. But I feel like one of these could easily be scum and the other a 3rd party. They could be going at each other for distancing purposes but I don’t know. Their behavior is just nuts.

 

[Z25]

Ups flip flopping after I quoted that first post is puzzling. I’m going to sleep and we shall see what happens in the morning I guess

 

[LaserGuy]

I'm really struggling to get anything useful from the last few pages. Everything just feels like wine to me. I will have another look tomorrow and hopefully parse something useful out of it.

I just up and removed the "text color" option in my Preferences so all my text turned the default color. Hope that makes it easier to read my posts!! You should've told me before!!! Imagine how many other peoples' eyes I've been stressing LOL

Thanks! I appreciate it.

Matrix game when I thought Madge was Cop.

I may have some PTSD from D2 that game because without reviewing my notes I couldn't have told you I had played in it at all. I'm pretty sure I got the gist of what you were getting at anyway though.

 

[Jackrito]

I have no idea what to make of UP's recent posts it just seems erratic to say the least me being his top town makes 0 sense. None of us should be anyone's top town. It also makes no sense he agrees with Pokechu but sees m that much as town. I just see this as a defeated caught scum trying to cause a mess by dying.

I would say that I can't see him doing this as town but in Token he self hammered sobe is clearly defeatist as hell. I still feel this is an attempt to buy time for a teammate likely Boom.

 

[Jackrito]

Meant to say me and Pokechu being top town there

 

[Jackrito]

The shade on Wisp as well is just weird to me.

 

[ranmaru]

I also see this as embarrassment for losing for his team. If he were to be town he would be apologizing to us for doing poorly, instead of asking to be hammered.

 

[BoomFrog]

I'm not convinced on that team, and I was more so wondering about individual analysis of their actions rather than association.

First of all I eliminated you wiisp and sabrar on individual content and an only resorting too association for the harder to read slots. If we ignore association my only change would be to put Z25 below LaserGuy. I liked LaserGuy's defense of me when he didn't need to. Z25 has been awfully obsessed with using mechanics to clear people which I don't agree with but don't want to pick apart D2 because I don't want to discuss roles. Ignoring that content, they have been very passive and crowd following in their reads. Still get townie points for initially defending Ninja. So Z25 is my weakest town lean based on content.

 

[BoomFrog]

I'm not even going to discuss UPs behaviour because that would just be more wine which we don't need.

 

[Wiisp]

lmao if we read by associations then this game is a ****ing mess
imagine all my posts, and you are just like, "ya X is a wolf because Y is a wolf"

people that vote someone
then continue to talk about other things just bother me
I am looking at you lasorguy

 

[Wiisp]

z25 approach to the game definitely bothers me

 

[BoomFrog]

lmao if we read by associations then this game is a ****ing mess
imagine all my posts, and you are just like, "ya X is a wolf because Y is a wolf"

Yeah, what a ****ing catastrophy it would be if say, BoomFrog, was considered a Wolf because Wolf-UP interacted with him awkwardly. I'm glad that's not happening.

 

[Wiisp]

I mean that's a thing, but there are individualist reasons to hate you which I believe I pointed out

I'm quite sure that how Up is playing has less to do with his alignment and probably more so due to phase lengths, but that still pushes my thoughts to more likely a wolf

At this point I'd probably hammer either you or him, him flipping town here would kind of boggle my mind, and I'd probably still have me thinking you are a wolf

Ill look at possible world's in the hypothetical t/t world when I get a chance

As well the w/t world in regards to both of you

 

[LaserGuy]

lmao if we read by associations then this game is a ****ing mess
imagine all my posts, and you are just like, "ya X is a wolf because Y is a wolf"

people that vote someone
then continue to talk about other things just bother me
I am looking at you lasorguy

I voted based on my reads here and my list here. I honestly feel like we're just going around in circles at this point and voting is probably the most useful thing I can do at this stage.

Z25 : Why aren't you voting?

 

[Sabrar]

I honestly feel like we're just going around in circles at this point and voting is probably the most useful thing I can do at this stage.

QFT, +1, etc.

 

[ranmaru]

Laser I am curious what you have gotten out of the previous pages, especially since you pointed out that Booms deal was wifom even for his own standards. How does this reflect on your read of him? Do you are or disagree that Boom can talk himself out of a lynch?

 

[ranmaru]

Z25 What is your updated read on Laser?

 

[LaserGuy]

Laser I am curious what you have gotten out of the previous pages, especially since you pointed out that Booms deal was wifom even for his own standards. How does this reflect on your read of him? Do you are or disagree that Boom can talk himself out of a lynch?

Boom is very good at talking himself out of lynches. I would be surprised if he doesn't try. This isn't particularly AI. He is very slippery as either alignment and I have never been able to find any reliable towntells for him. There is definitely a risk that if UP is Town and Boom is scum, he is trying to squeeze a mislynch out of us and then try to redirect us elsewhere in D3. I think we had something like that happen at least once in Crossover.

For the rest, the main conclusion that I draw is that we're mostly going around in circles and I think we need to start consolidating if we want to make progress. I think UP has a higher probability to flip scum at this stage. There is very little about his recent posting that I like, and my feeling is that he is intentionally trying to create a lot of the confusion and frustration that we're seeing. I won't deny that there is merit to the idea that it would be safer in the long run to lynch Boom, though.

 

[Z25]

I voted based on my reads here and my list here. I honestly feel like we're just going around in circles at this point and voting is probably the most useful thing I can do at this stage.

Z25 : Why aren't you voting?

Between the Wine fest I genuinely want to Vote Up, but I feel there is something else going on here and it may be apart of some type of scum plan.
That would lead me Boom who is also close to hammering. We’ve barely received content today.

Mavenchu would be another slot I’m looking at. But quite honestly Boom and Up are bigger problems that need to be sorted.

 

[ranmaru]

##Unvote

Z, you can Vote Boom now.

 

[Z25]

Z25 What is your updated read on Laser?

Null, I still have a hard time saying I town read the slot. I just don’t see it, a lot of content focuses on their opinions of players from past games without much focus on how they are in this game or what could be different.

Makes harder to see their reads in full and I don’t know what to make of it. Boom and Ups posts are bigger problems as I just stated.

I want to lynch Up, but I’m thinking Boom is the better play. Iirc though he’s close to hammer

 

[Z25]

##Unvote

Z, you can Vote Boom now.

Well that’s quite the timing but sure.

##Vote: Boom

I think his flip could answer a lot towards whatever the hell UP is doing

 

[Sabrar]

I think his flip could answer a lot towards whatever the hell UP is doing

How would Boom's flip influence your read on UP? In what case would you town-read UP?

 

[Z25]

How would Boom's flip influence your read on UP? In what case would you town-read UP?

If Boom flips town I could see Up putting on a show to potentially lead us in his direction. But Boom was already the main talk today so why Up would do that is beyond me and unlikely.

I do think the most logical scenario is that scum up is trying to save scum Boom however.
So in the event of a town flip, I would maybe trust Up more but I would also start to consider that Up is a 3rd party, because his actions really feel like they could come from one.

So I really can’t see town Up like this. Look at flavorless mafia for example., I put a huge wall of posts out on why he was scum and he fought to the end. For him to not do the same here reeks of a hidden agenda

 

[ranmaru]

Pokechu Curious on your thoughts right now.

 

[Z25]

What if isomniac Up has to stay awake for a certain amount of nights to win?

Or just even one night straight and now Up wants to be lynched?

 

[ranmaru]

What sparked you to wonder about his role?

 

[Z25]

What sparked you to wonder about his role?

His behavior doesn’t add up with town or scum up. Neither throw in the towel no matter what. Could he still be burned out after flavorless? Sure, but he was still actively contributing like normal day one even if people didn’t agree with him. I see no need for such a drastic play style change unless he’s got a plan.

So it made wonder what could be at work here, and I’m thinking it’s a 3rd party. So I threw that possibility out there

 

[Z25]

Read his initial posts when he was posting at night:
https://smashboards.com/threads/oasis-mafia-day-2-turmoil.503643/page-33

Outside of the wall of text everything else comes off in a joking manor. Which is odd. Town Up would want to use that to really increase cred imo. But he chose not to after claiming. It’s as if he expected the claim to fully confirm him but then got upset when it didn’t today

 

[ranmaru]

If UP is third party to you, how does that reflect your read on Boom?

 

[Z25]

If UP is third party to you, how does that reflect your read on Boom?

I still think Boom would have a good chance at being scum, but Boom should be lynched first. There’s individual reasons to still suspect scum Boom. He’s had a lot of wine like Up and a lot of Booms posts focus on how they are viewed in their other forum and while they’ve done some more today nothing sticks out as absolutely townie to me.

 

[Z25]

But Ran what’s your thoughts on that theory? Do Scum Up and Boom really wine at each other for the day? Is one town to you? If Boom flips scum what do you make of Up?

 

[ranmaru]

They are both scum to me. I generally agree with Laser that UP is playing in a way to sow confusion and frustration.

 

[BoomFrog]

Well that’s quite the timing but sure.

##Vote: Boom

I think his flip could answer a lot towards whatever the hell UP is doing

How would my flip reveal what UP is doing?

 

[BoomFrog]

How would Boom's flip influence your read on UP? In what case would you town-read UP?

Lol... I should have kept reading. I was too offended...