First off: relevancy. Does relevancy matter when picking a character on the roster? I personally believe so, but there are a couple of asterisks. Relevancy used in the context of the roster would probably be defined as a character recently appearing in a major Nintendo title. Typically, this will have been between the last and most recent Smash Bros. releases.
#1: Retro rules.
People will be quick to point out the presence of characters like Duck Hunt Dog, Game & Watch, Pit, etc. as evidence that relevancy doesn't matter. However, characters who are newcomers that currently lack relevancy tend to be retro characters. Let's have a look:
-Ice Climbers
-Dr. Mario
-Mr. Game & Watch
-Pit
-R.O.B.
-Little Mac*1
-Duck Hunt Dog/Duo
From PushDustIn's Unused Fighters List*2, we know that Ice Climbers seemed to be in a sort of competition for the "retro" slot. I think there's enough evidence to suggest that some characters are added as "retro" representation. Because of this, they seem to be a sort of exclusion to the idea that characters need relevancy to be in.
#2: Veterans are loved.
-Fox
-Falco*3
-Ness
-Lucas
-Ike
-Roy
-Shiek
-Captain Falcon
These are all characters that were fairly irrelevant to Nintendo by the time Smash 4 was in development. However, they were relevant at the time of their introductions:
-Star Fox was an ongoing series when Fox was added to 64 and Falco was added to Melee.
-Earthbound was released just five years prior to 64 and the series was moving forward.
-Mother 3 had been released by the time Sakurai decided the roster for Brawl.
-Ike was a main character in both Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn.
-Roy's first appearance was literally in Melee.
-Ocarina of Time had been released two years prior to Melee.
-F-Zero was an ongoing series when Falcon was added to 64.
On top of this, Sakurai clearly doesn't like to cut characters. If the increasing roster isn't an indication, he seems to love to keep the fans satisfied. Even a niche character like Roy ended up returning, and the cuts between the games have been pretty minimal.
PushDustIn also posted his own viewpoint on Sakurai’s criteria*4. While I agree with it, I think relevancy is going to be important for two reasons.
#1: Consumers will be more likely to recognize and vote for those characters.
#2: More recognizable characters will sell better.
These are good reasons for Sakurai to follow on the initial roster, but they’re even bigger reasons to follow on DLC where each character is offered individually. You get the opportunity to garner fans of recognizable characters.
Veterans are reliable picks. They’re easier to develop since the team already has an idea of what the design and moveset will be, and they’re a safe bet to sell well because they pretty much MUST have fans if they’ve been in the series.
Newcomers are shakier territory. Ryu was a good pick because he’s an icon of fighting games and is a mascot to a series Smash itself owes a lot too, but what other newcomers are iconic? What other characters have a public eye on them? While being iconic will probably matter more for third parties (more on that later…) I think notoriety will be important for first-party newcomers.
But that leads to one of the biggest sources of this entire debate. What constitutes as “notoriety”? How much influence does the Smash fandom have? How much influence do casual fans have?
To start, I think both are valuable, personally. On a business level, Nintendo can rely on fans to buy DLC that attracts to both the very hardcore fanbase and the casual fanbase that recognizes a character.
However, I think it’s important to remember view counts for these Nintendo directs. These trailers and videos get over a million views, but these communities consistent of numbers in the hundreds to thousands. The number difference is staggering. Even when you take into account how many of those views might be rewatches, we’re still talking hundreds of thousands of unique views.
This biggest fan poll I personally know of is the often-sourced reddit one from a few months back that had somewhere around 10-11k votes. Even that, as huge as it was, doesn’t compare to the scale of the total Smash community. In these distinct polls, there’s never a lone winner. It plays out more like a hypothetical election poll where a lot of people do really well.
Take Isaac, for example. He can get 1000 votes, but he’s in competition with another twenty beloved characters, five of whom ALSO get 1000 votes. This inevitably leads to the next point.
What happens to niche characters? They don’t get spillover votes. The casual fanbase won’t recognize Isaac or K. Rool, two very popular hardcore community picks. But, they WILL recognize a character like Dixie Kong or Impa, both of whom have active and vocal fanbases. I think that bodes better for the latter two. Even if they don’t have quite the fanbase in-community that the former two have, they have more spillover and are more recognizable to a wider audience
Even consider a lack of coordination amongst casual voters, the sheer number and likelihood to gravitate towards more notable characters makes it more likely for those latter two to receive a better end result in the Smash poll. If not them, you’re still going to have thousands of votes cobbled together for several different iconic characters that would probably leave niche characters in the same pool as everybody else.
In essence, as much as I want those niche characters, I don’t believe they have a great chance. To be fair, I think the pool of characters will be very limited. There aren’t a ton of identifiable characters that fit with Smash’s criteria for characters when you take a potential need for relevancy into account.
What I did was I looked through best-selling games on Nintendo consoles throughout the last few years and I looked at some applicable third-party titles that might fit. I made a note on how being iconic matters – this is evidenced by our current third party roster picks.
They’re all mascots for something. Megaman was once a face of Capcom, Ryu is an icon of fighting games, Sonic is SEGA’s mascot, and Pac-Man is one of the most well-known video game characters in the world.
Despite how exceptional Snake was, he STILL fit the concept of being an icon. MGS is a big part of Konami’s history and Snake comes closest to being their most consistent mascot.
With that, I believe that the only real things that matter with third parties are that they represent something notable. All that being said, this is my starting pool. After I list these, I’ll talk a little more in-depth about each character.
-Toad
-Shy Guy
-Koopa Troopa
-Waluigi
-Daisy
-Paper Mario
-Dixie Kong
-Cranky Kong
-Impa
-Lana
-Inkling
-Shovel Knight
-Rayman
-Square Enix rep (Black Mage, Chocobo, Slime, etc.)
Out the gate, I think the Mario series has a very good chance (Like, 80%) of getting representation. The characters I listed are the most recurring I can think of that aren’t playable at this point.
SHY GUY & KOOPA TROOPA
Both are recurring characters that are often playable in spin-offs series and have a large involvement in the Mario universe as a whole. It’s the former that sets them apart from, say, a Goomba – but as notable as these characters are, I don’t feel like either are especially likely.
Koopa could repurpose a lot of Squirtle’s moves and Shy Guy has a ton of moveset potential through the iterations of his character through the Yoshi and Mario series’ history, but both are also (at their core) simple enemies that have no unique identity beyond their design. For that reason, I don’t think Sakurai would pick them.
There have been exceptions to this. Villager being an example, but he at least represents Animal Crossing, much like how Game & Watch represents his handheld series through his moveset. Not only do these two characters lack a unique identity as characters, they lack the ability to represent anything. This leads to the two most oft-mentioned Sports rep characters…
WALUIGI & DAISY
With a simple bit of research, one will find that both of these characters have been in lockstep since 2000. While Daisy had prior history, it was brief, and none of her personality elements came forth until she made her re-introduction into the Sports series. She was, in essence, reinvented at the same time Waluigi was invented.
Both have the lone ability to represent the spinoff series because both have been defined by it. Unlike the above two characters, these two have defined personalities that separate them from the rest of the cast and keep them consistent across titles. This makes them more than the generic enemy.
As a long-time resident of Gamefaqs, I’ve been exposed and perhaps influenced by the stunning anti-Daisy hatetrain that exists on the forum, which exists as a reaction to a small but vocal and extremely obnoxious fanbase. Not to say the Daisy fanbase as a whole is bad, but Gamefaqs’ is remarkably uncivil and awful. It’d be enough to turn anybody away from her character.
However, that’s within a vacuum. That’s an environment built that is unique among a few hundred. Daisy DOES have a fanbase and she IS notable. Is she more so than Waluigi? I’m not really sure of this- but Waluigi has his own problem. He’s an assist trophy.
While I don’t think that’s a huge ticket against his character, I think it’s enough to say that he wasn’t considered very long by the development team. To be fair, it could’ve simply been because this game saw two newcomers and a veteran return for the franchise, and Waluigi simply wasn’t a priority at that point.
My reasoning, however, is this – if both represent the same thing and one is an assist trophy already, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the other might have a better chance? That could be a reason Daisy might be included, but it also might be a reason why neither are. While both have definable personalities, it’s pretty true that neither have especially unique moveset potential from one another when you consider how both would probably play.
Not to doubt Sakurai’s creativity, but I don’t believe that Daisy would stay in a dress if she were to be playable. She’s not often in a dress in the Sports spinoffs anyway, and that would result in her being a relatively tall fighter with a sports-oriented moveset. This… wouldn’t be far away from Waluigi.
While I think both have defining personalities, I don’t believe either would be distant in build or moveset. I’m not sure if their personality would necessarily be able to extend into their movesets in ways that make them especially unique from one another, especially if both have “Represent spinoffs” at their core. In my opinion, this could be a huge strike against both.
TOAD
“But... b-but Mario. Mario… what about Toad? What about Toad?” – Terminal 7 Luigi
I’ve mentioned unique identities before, which is why Toad is such an interesting pick. He doesn’t suffer from a lack of personality quite the same way characters like Koopa or Shy Guy do, but he’s every bit as generic and spread along the series as they are. His status as an attack for Peach is indicative of how generic his character is.
But, there’s a recent solution to this. With Mario Galaxy’s release in 2007, we saw the first appearance of the Toad Brigade and their leader – Captain Toad.
-He’s been in three main series games, one of which he’s playable in.
-He has his own personality that cobbles together traits commonly seen in Toads.
-He’s the protagonist of his own game.
His game may be new, but his character isn’t, and it’d be fairly recognizable. If nothing else, it would be viewed simply as a form of Toad by the general public, and Toad is a widely recognizable Mario character. He fixes almost all of Toad’s potential issues in these regards.
The biggest thing going against Captain Toad is that his inability to jump is a defining characteristic of his gameplay. However, I feel like Olimar is a decent counter – with both coincidentally being space captains.
They’re both weak or tiny and frail to their environments, and that plays into their games. Arguably, it does even more so with Olimar, because he requires the Pikmin to pick up objects. His very life depends on it, and his life is limited by his size. Yet, he’s scaled to Smash, and has his Pikmin fight for him.
For these reasons, I think Captain Toad is one of the most plausible characters on the entire list.
PAPER MARIO
Arguably a niche character, but representative of something nonetheless. With the long history of Mario RPGs, you get worlds with heavy amounts of mythos and style. Mario & Luigi and Paper Mario both have that trait where the Mario universe is given personality and its concepts are expanded upon and put to good use.
If you had any character to represent that style that Nintendo has forged over the last fifteen years, Paper Mario is probably the best bet. Now, up until Paper Jam, he’s had nothing to do with Mario & Luigi – but the point still stands. Both are world-building heavy, expansive RPG series who’re likely to have similar fans.
Paper Mario would be a third Mario, but he’d be unlike any of the Bros. He’d have a distinct set of attributes and a move set more on par with characters like Game & Watch or Villager, who respectively represent their franchises. The same way they represent Game & Watch handhelds or Animal Crossing’s long history, Paper Mario could have a moveset that represents Mario RPGs. Partners, recurring items, etc.
However, I don’t think he’s as identifiable as Toad is. Probably not as much as Daisy or Waluigi, either, but he stands a better chance for reasons I laid out above on the subject of Waluigi and Daisy. You really can’t take a lockstep character and have him/her represent what Paper Mario does all the same, making him unique.
After these considerations, this is my order for Mario character likelihood:
Captain Toad > Paper Mario > Daisy > Waluigi > Toad > Koopa Troopa > Shy Guy > the rest.
DIXIE KONG
While I was and still am a large supporter of King K. Rool, I think his days may be numbered. It’s not just the costume, either – it’s because of what I mentioned earlier. He isn’t recognizable by a wide base of consumers because he hasn’t appeared in main series Donkey Kong series since 1999. His best efforts prior were in that 2000s experimental phase where Nintendo had no idea what they were doing with the DK property.
After Country made a comeback, Rool was absent. Rool remained absent from Tropical Freeze despite all the speculation about who the villain was. As it stands, his last appearance as a playable character was in a Mario Spinoff game. He’s been sent to confused property hell, where characters like Petey and Birdo live.
Dixie, however, was re-introduced into the Donkey Kong franchise in Tropical Freeze. Tropical Freeze sold somewhere around a million units*5, meaning she’s a recognizable face among fans. She’s been in weak competition with Rool for quite some time now, but animosity between the two groups is hardly noteworthy in scale.
I personally haven’t seen much disdain for her character in general, but I know some exists - “Diddy with a ponytail”, etc. But it’s worth pointing out that she did nearly make it into Brawl*6. That doesn’t mean every scrapped character has a chance, but it’s certainly a benefit. It means Sakurai considered her as a viable option, even if she was part of a team mechanic.
While she lacks the franchise pull Donkey or Diddy have, she’s definitely a shining example of a supporting character for an existing franchise.
CRANKY KONG
An underrated character in terms of his chances. It’s important to remember Cranky’s mythos and how he’s the grandfather of all Kongs. There’s no question he has moveset potential.
If the DK series were to get another rep after Dixie assuming Rool stays where he is, I think Cranky is the most likely choice. He’s defined in his personality and he’s a quintessential supporting character, but I think Dixie’s Smash history and gender give her the edge in being picked. As evidenced by the in-game costumes, female characters have gotten a huge boost this game compared to previous titles.
IMPA & LANA
With Hyrule Warriors, Impa has gone from just being a recurring character to being a somewhat notable one in the eyes of the average consumer. Impa doesn’t have an especially long history as a viable fighter (mostly taking from main-series games like OoT and SS), but she fits a support character roll.
I suppose one problem is consistency. Her more recognizable form to most of the average consumer would be her blade-user heavy version in Hyrule Warriors, but this is not a trait she uses in either OoT or SS. If she were to be more akin to those, there’d be risk of overlap with Sheik, as both have similar builds.
If Sakurai wanted to prevent overlap, he could also run with using a HW variant of Impa. Either character he picks, he’s going with supporting cast. But I think both may have problems. Lana is a sorceress-type, and she may have overlap with Robin (who also uses tomes & the like) and Impa’s blades are so comically large that I’m skeptical they could be scaled in a balanced way for Smash. Maybe I’m wrong on that.
Due to the Zelda series’ lack of support and the inevitable piles of votes for Zelda characters the series will get, I’d consider both potential dark horse candidates. They have problems, but they have name recognition and fanbases that would make their inclusion worthwhile. I can’t decide who’s more likely, though.
If Impa is included based on her HW moveset, it’s a borderline reinvention of her previous character. Meaning, we fall into almost a similar trap we do with Waluigi and Daisy, where both of these characters basically represent Hyrule Warriors. At that point, does Impa’s previous history serve any use in deciding to make her playable if none of that previous history is utilized? I think for most people it might, but we’re talking about Sakurai.
INKLING
Inkling by all accounts fits every criterion you could ask for. Splatoon is popular, Inkling is a generic protagonist with tons of moveset potential, the series has its own unique identity (as do the Inklings), etc. But do they have a chance?
Well, they might be too new. Splatoon has been a surprise hit and the game was released even after the ballot was announced, meaning they probably had a long period of time where they weren’t getting votes. Depending on how Sakurai developed the DLC characters and the ballot, Inklings may have seen their popularity arrive too late.
I think the costume and trophy were probably developed some time ago, probably around the time the ballot was out. I don’t really believe they were “Sorry, but look forward to the future.” messages, but I do think Inklings were 3-4 months late on the train altogether.
If the franchise goes forward, I believe they have one of the best chances to be a newcomer among any character. However, unless the ballot content really is going to be in 2016, it feels inevitable that these guys won’t be included. I could totally be wrong on this – again, they fit the necessary criterion you’d expect a character to have, I just think they came along too late.
SHOVEL KNIGHT
Hoo boy, here’s the talk of the town.
The indie game scene has expanded enormously since the Brawl days, but the Indie game scene existed before that. Milestone games like Cave Story and La Mulana are grandfathers of the concept*7 we often refer to as “indie games”, so it’s natural to want or expect characters like Quote or Lemeza to be playable.
Shovel Knight is, in many ways, a continuation on those concepts as much as games like Cave Story and La Mulana are. It takes a used idea and creates its own identity based on it. This is a trait representative of what made the indie genre boom as much as it did, so I think that he fits. He’s representative of something in a low-key way, which is exactly what you’d expect from an indie character.
He’s semi-recognizable through exposure from social media and his game’s many hundred thousand sales. In this regard, he’s more niche than most other third-party candidates are, and he lacks a long history that most of them do and a lack of Eastern recognition.
It’s those things that make me skeptical of his inclusion. I’m trying to avoid using the rumors or amiibo in this discussion, and there’s a good chance all of this will be sorted out fairly soon, but it’s my opinion that his chances are decent, but not fantastic. I think a lot of it depends on just how truly important worldwide recognition is for a character and if good recognition among gamers in the West is enough.
RAYMAN
The fact that his trophy exists is somewhat of a milestone in and of itself, but I think it bodes well for him. Ubisoft and Nintendo get along very well, and he’s one of the few third parties that don’t have much of anything going against him.
At the same time, more bold inclusions like Shovel Knight or a lack of interest in over representing third parties could keep him from being playable.
SQUARE ENIX REP
After Ryu got included, it was evident that our definitions of what was viable as a third party would need to chance. If we are to believe that iconography matters more than we thought, then Square Enix has a potential ace in their sleeve in this DLC race.
Because the characters and cast change in Square Enix titles, I’d expect recurring elements or characters to pop up. Black Mage, Chocobo, and Slime are all frontrunners, and while I don’t expect any of them, I think any of them are plausible as surprise inclusions. They’re widely recognizable, always as relevant as their home franchises, and would attract a lot of attention.
VETERAN MEMORIAL
Our last stop in this speculation-fest is the graveyard of veterans. Squirtle, Ivysaur, Snake, Pichu, and Wolf will be measured in particular.
I think Wolf easily has the best chance out of any of these characters. Snake would, but by the words of Jim Sterling, Konami is Konami. If Kojima is why Snake got in Smash, then I don’t see Snake coming back if Kojima left. It’s my viewpoint that Snake was a oneshot anyway, but Konami being Konami has (in my opinion) killed any chance he had left of being a surprise DLC addition.
Ivysaur and Squirtle suffer from being tertiary. They are parts to a greater concept that was dropped, and the most obvious “part” to keep and transition was the most popular, Charizard. If Sakurai’s dev team had extra time, I could have seen these two making a comeback, but I don’t think they’re ever a priority. They need extra work now that they’d need to independent, and Sakurai probably views that work being better suited for more popular cut vets.
Then, there’s Pichu. He’s the final Melee rep who has no representation of any sort in Smash 4 as a character. It’s probably because he was a joke character – which may explain the probable PraiMai mystery. He may have been intended to be reiterated into a buffed and better character, but Brawl’s dev time prevented that, and he was left behind altogether.
It’s my opinion that he’s a relic, but his popularity in the East might save him by some miracle.
As I said, I believe Wolf is the most likely – but that’s on the back of everybody else being exceedingly unlikely. Wolf has popularity and notoriety, but he’s perhaps not a priority. I don’t have much else on him. His position is one of many unknowns at this point.
My final verdict is a soon to follow image. Green represents characters with a 50%+ chance, yellow represents 20-40% chance depending on the character, and red is anything below 20%. Remember what I said at the start of this analysis, though- Sakurai factor. In spite of my long efforts to make all of this, I could be wrong and we could get a dream Isaac/K. Rool combo that a lot of people thought we’d get when the ballot started.
But there’s also this, even though my picks are unorthodox or don’t mesh with popular opinion, don’t assume I’m being pessimistic. I don’t view realism as pessimism, and this pool and set of picks isn’t me making my own bed of disappointment. I’m excited that I think characters like Toad or Impa have realistic chances. I’m excited that we might get an Indie rep at all, and I’m excited that underrepresented franchises have the chance of getting something new.
Thank you for reading my 4k word analysis.
*Note that some characters’ positions would chance if others got in. My current viewpoint is that we have 2-4 characters left. If, say, Toad gets in, I think characters like Daisy would drop below 20% and characters like Impa would move ahead. I’ll revise this list under the same philosophy if Shovel Knight or any other single character is revealed.
CITATIONS/NOTES
*1: Little Mac had a game in 2009, but his official art has him on an arcade fighting Donkey Kong. This and his wireframe alt are clear references to his older games. I believe he is a retro-revival character based on this.
*2:
http://www.sourcegaming.info/2015/04/13/the-definitive-unused-fighters-list-in-smash/
*3: Star Fox hadn't had a release in about six years by the time Smash 4 development started. It's arguable as to whether or not Fox and Falco were irrelevant since Nintendo might've had Zero in the works, but I'll assume 2012 might've been before that.
*4:
http://www.sourcegaming.info/2015/04/02/how-does-sakurai-pick-the-roster/
*5:
http://www.vgchartz.com/game/73169/donkey-kong-country-tropical-freeze/
*6:
http://www.ssbwiki.com/Beta_elements_(SSBB)#Scrapped_characters
*7: There’s not really agreed upon definitions of what makes indie “indie”, but it’s often 16 or 8 bit games that mimic gameplay styles of NES/SNES games from the 80s and 90s. Sometimes they heavily expand on the concept (Super Meat Boy) but the spirit of those older games is still there. Cave Story and La Mulana, released in late 2004 and mid 2005 respectively, are both large and impressive examples of early titles like this.
Of course, Indie titles can also just be their own thing. Look at Iji and Minecraft.
