Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think when you reach a certain age, newer events tend to get more compressed and generalized then they really warrant. I mean still think of Crazy Taxi and Jet Set Radio as newer Sega franchises relative to stuff like Streets of Rage, Shinobi, or Golden Axe, despite the fact the former two are 20 plus years old.

For some, any Nintendo IP birthed in the 2000s and after seems "new" because the ones from the 80s and 90s are so ingrained as the classic ones.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Sakurai has specifically stated 4th Parties will never be added and while he's changed his mind on some stuff in the past, I think this is the one thing that will never change. Being a celebration of video games is what makes Smash itself, and there are still so many video game characters that can be added before we need to think about any 4th Parties.

I'm on a middle point between not interest and accepting this.
As someone who is on the "Non-Video Game Media representation in Smash" camp, Goku from Dragon Ball is not in my radar. There are better options out there.

 

[UserKev]

I'm confused about what the designation even means? Are we talking in a literal sense in terms of age, where "senior" is just characters like Mario and Link?

Or is it designated by popularity / notoriety, in which characters like Isabelle and Inkling would no doubt be "senior" rank by now? I guess I would agree most of the really old, really important characters are in, as well as the longest standing character requests, but I'm unsure what the point being made is if that's what we're talking about.

A guess age old works better. It still is. Popularity can also factor tho that helps newer characters. Older characters like Kamek are mixed ground, being an "old" staple and decently popular.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I just believe the climate right now is different than it was a decade ago and a ballot would further provoke an unruly and intensely vocal community to be even angrier and louder.

I don't. The Smash community has always been like this. If you think otherwise, you weren't paying attention.

The Ballot helped inform Ultimate's decisions but they weren't helpless without it or anything.

What it does is it provides Sakurai with hard data that he can show to the higher ups at Nintendo.

Instead of being like "Well, I've heard on social media that this guy is popular, maybe we should add him.", he gets to go, "No, seriously. People want this character. And here's the numbers to prove it."

Sakurai has specifically stated 4th Parties will never be added and while he's changed his mind on some stuff in the past, I think this is the one thing that will never change.

I think Sakurai will never change it. But I also think Sakurai is eventually not going to be in charge of Smash anymore.

Even though I think it'd make Smash a much worse game, I'm pretty sure the average corporate CEO views it as leaving money on the table. Thinking "Yeah, Smash is GOOD...but we could be making Fortnight money!"

And as soon as someone takes Sakurai's place, I wouldn't be surprised to see that limitation abolished.

I think a series that's more than two decades old is far past the point of being called "relatively new."

A series that was launched in the Gamecube era will never NOT be "relatively new" compared to series introduced on the NES. Hence the "relatively".

 

[fogbadge]

A series that was launched in the Gamecube era will never NOT be "relatively new" compared to series introduced on the NES. Hence the "relatively".

N64

 

[Guynamednelson]

N64

That's all the more reason to argue it's not "relatively new".

 

[DarthEnderX]

N64

AC1 was one of those cross-gen games like Twilight Princess. The GC version came out just a couple months after the N64 version.

 

[fogbadge]

AC1 was one of those cross-gen games like Twilight Princess. The GC version came out just a couple months after the N64 version.

granted but it still debuted on the n64

 

[Sid-cada]

Animal Crossing is doubtlessly one of the more interesting series to think about when it comes to the next Smash.

Historically, AC was always eligible for a character as early as Brawl. However, Sakurai has admitted that he did not find the series capable of producing a fighter at the time. Only when the For games came out did Sakurai get inspired enough to make a move set by screeching things a little for Villager.

Isabelle would be made for Ultimate, but she would end up being a semi-clone. Whether due to lack of remaining new ideas for the series, a development time that left little room for unique newcomers, or some combination of both, Isabelle ended up with a move set that feels more like the leftover scraps of Villager's ideas rather than a move set that is actually feels like hers.

The clone stigma of Isabelle has unfortunately continued on to the remainder of the Animal Crossing characters. While it certainly could afford a third character, it's harder to champion a character from Animal Crossing with enthusiasm when the series is already screeching it's own move set possibilities thin and likely to produce another clone. The fact that its a non-combative series with a gameplay loop fairly well represented by one character and who's only other character is a clone whos uniqueness is somewhere between Ken and Toon Link does not inspire confidence that a fully fledged, unique character is coming soon.

It's situation honestly resembles that of Star Fox to me, when it ends up with three very similar characters that ended up being clones of each other for a combination of reasons, but ultimately come down to how hard is is to translate their gameplay into Smash. And while Wolf was supported back before he was included, Krystal was just as if not more supported back during that time (pardon me if I am wrong, I wasn't there during that time). And while Krystal still has some support due to how unique she could be, overall support for other Star Fox characters like Slippy Toad and Peppy Hare isn't anywhere near the ballpark of most characters generally accepted as popular.

I honestly think that if Animal Crossing were to get a new character, it'd be a Wolf-tier clone at best for probably Tom Nook, before the support becomes too fragmented to earn a new character.

 

[dream1ng]

If AC is relatively new, Smash is relatively new. They debuted on the same system, like two years apart. There was AC content in Melee.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

If AC is relatively new, Smash is relatively new. They debuted on the same system, like two years apart. There was AC content in Melee.

N64 with Animal Forest, but same point.

Isabelle is however pretty new within the series compared to the franchise, which is pretty old~

 

[dream1ng]

N64 with Animal Forest, but same point.

I'm talking about the series as a whole, which we refer to as Animal Crossing. It debuted on the same system Smash, the series, debuted. I'm aware it's called Animal Forest in Japan, but... I mean, it's not like we call him Rockman.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'm talking about the series as a whole, which we refer to as Animal Crossing. It debuted on the same system Smash, the series, debuted. I'm aware it's called Animal Forest in Japan, but... I mean, it's not like we call him Rockman.

I thought you were referring to Animal Crossing on the GameCube's debut as well as its Smash content debut, so I simply misread the context. My bad.

 

[StormC]

I think when you reach a certain age, newer events tend to get more compressed and generalized then they really warrant. I mean still think of Crazy Taxi and Jet Set Radio as newer Sega franchises relative to stuff like Streets of Rage, Shinobi, or Golden Axe, despite the fact the former two are 20 plus years old.

For some, any Nintendo IP birthed in the 2000s and after seems "new" because the ones from the 80s and 90s are so ingrained as the classic ones.

Agreed. It has a lot to do with age. It's generally agreed in psychology that people's tastes and sensibilities crystalize in their early adolescence (doesn't mean they can't change, but it establishes a "baseline" as it were), and as someone in my 30s, I still think of stuff from my high school years as "new" even though that's literally over 15 years ago in some cases lol.

In short...

IT'LL HAPPEN TO YOU!

 

[SPEN18]

What happened with Falco, Wolf, and Isabelle is not an indictment of how the gameplay of SF and AC translate to Smash.

Falco was added as a clone because Melee's short dev cycle prompted clones en masse. We know Krystal was considered and that Wolf was chosen over her because he could be made with less resources. So Wolf and Falco weren't made as clones because nobody from Star Fox could have a unique moveset; they were chosen to fit the situation of "we only have enough resources to make a clone for this slot." The series just hasn't quite been big enough to justify more unique reps beyond what we've gotten.
With Isabelle, her clone status could easily be because of the limited available newcomer slots for base Ult, and the resource strain caused by EiH. There's simply not been enough opportunities since Villager first debuted for Isabelle to say anything about Sakurai's current views on the rest of the AC cast. Not to mention that AC is easily big enough that I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to suggest or even mandate a character for it.

In general it's a common pitfall to draw too many conclusions from clones. Most of the time it's just them not having enough time to do anything more with the character, and possibly also their resistance to changing existing movesets too much which prevents the character from later becoming totally unique.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I sometimes forget Wolf is even IN smash lol

 

[Guynamednelson]

I sometimes forget Wolf is even IN smash lol

I never forgot, he was a common sight back when I went to SSBU tourneys.

I wish someone documented all the ways Brawl Wolf is supposed to be a hodgepodge of various characters, since according to Sakurai he's supposed to be that and not just a Fox clone.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I sometimes forget Wolf is even IN smash lol

We all did. Now let us resume forgetting.

 

[Soy_Man]

I'll never forget wolf is in Smash because he's one of the best designed characters in ultimate and I think he should be in future games

 

[Swamp Sensei]

We all did. Now let us resume forgetting.

...

What did Wolf do to you?

 

[Sucumbio]

We all did. Now let us resume forgetting.

"What's the matter, scared?"

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I never forgot, he was a common sight back when I went to SSBU tourneys.

I wish someone documented all the ways Brawl Wolf is supposed to be a hodgepodge of various characters, since according to Sakurai he's supposed to be that and not just a Fox clone.

Many don't realize that "moveset clone" and "model swap fighter" are not synonyms.

Ness was retooled from Mario, after all. Sure, Wolf clearly uses some of Fox's moves, but he's still highly unique. Not as unique as Ness, mind you, but still pretty unique. Jigglypuff is much closer to Wolf now than she is from the start as well.

Unfortunately it's hard to find that data. Hopefully we get it at some point. I know he has some of Falco and Fox's according to the SmashWiki, but that's about all that's clear.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I genuinely cant tell the difference between Wolf and Fox gameplay wise.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I genuinely cant tell the difference between Wolf and Fox gameplay wise.

They have different moves? The only thing remotely similar is their specials. All their normals are very different.

Playstyles are also different. Fox is rush down while Wolf is more of an all rounder.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I genuinely cant tell the difference between Wolf and Fox gameplay wise.

This gotta be a joke.

 

[Arcanir]

Honestly, the only thing I'd really say overlaps visually with Fox and Wolf's moveset are their reflectors and Final Smashes, and the former still has a different coloration. The rest of their moves are either completely different or at least have very distinct visual effects and properties from each other, so I would imagine someone watching a match with both would still be able to spot the differences between the two.

 

[Louie G.]

With Isabelle, her clone status could easily be because of the limited available newcomer slots for base Ult, and the resource strain caused by EiH. There's simply not been enough opportunities since Villager first debuted for Isabelle to say anything about Sakurai's current views on the rest of the AC cast. Not to mention that AC is easily big enough that I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to suggest or even mandate a character for it.

Honestly, yeah I also think Isabelle suffered from time constraints. She's a strangely designed character, in that it almost feels like they wanted to make a completely new character and caved in partway through to give her the same aerial game as Villager. Moreso than say, Lucas for example whose special kit is derivative of Ness, but he encourages a very different playstyle and all of his normals are practically brand new. Isabelle feels especially similar to Villager, because that slingshot is such a crucial move and you're going to be spending so much time in the air. That's where they excel.

So while we have fun new moves for Isabelle, a key neutral tool is functionally identical to her counterpart. I feel like the new things, while I like them enough to always pick Isabelle over Villager, don't entirely come together to create a cohesive new character and feel somewhat undercooked. I think if anything she's got more of an emphasis on stage control and traps, which is GREAT and I want more characters with an emphasis on this, I just wish they had the time to go all the way and let her come fully into her own. And jeez slightly more generous hitboxes on those smash attacks would be nice.

Granted I haven't really committed myself full time to the highest level play in Ultimate, perhaps Isabelle plays completely different to Villager and has a really well put together kit and I've been ignorant of this. I really wanted to play Isabelle actually, so I've put a fair bit of time into the character and I'm just talking from my own feelings. Just a lot of fun ideas bogged down by her aerial game being functionally identical to Villager, having it also be where she is most comfortable, and by proxy essentially making you play them the same way if you want to win.

 

[Kirbeh]

I genuinely cant tell the difference between Wolf and Fox gameplay wise.

Comment straight from 2008.

If this really is genuine, as Swamp already pointed out, their play style/gameplan is different. Fox being rushdown and Wolf being somewhere between an all rounder and a bruiser who happens to be a bit more agile.

If we're talking actual moveset. I think Nair is the only normal that they share. That and Wolf's specials are built off of Fox's, but they're properties and uses are substantially different to where I don't think they could be considered clone moves like Pikachu to Pichu for example. Falco's are a lot more similar and he's shed his clone status back in Brawl. He's definitely got some similarities but even when he debuted Wolf already wasn't a clone.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Comment straight from 2008.

If this really is genuine, as Swamp already pointed out, their play style/gameplan is different. Fox being rushdown and Wolf being somewhere between an all rounder and a bruiser who happens to be a bit more agile.

If we're talking actual moveset. I think Nair is the only normal that they share. That and Wolf's specials are built off of Fox's, but they're properties and uses are substantially different to where I don't think they could be considered clone moves like Pikachu to Pichu for example. Falco's are a lot more similar and he's shed his clone status back in Brawl. He's definitely got some similarities but even when he debuted Wolf already wasn't a clone.

His Brawl Dash Attack is pretty much the same as Fox's Up Smash too. Now it's completely different as well. They share a very minor amount of moves as is either way.

At least in some earlier games, Wolf was actually just a palette swap. But they couldn't be more different in Smash. I could understand if it was just comparing their pure Models(like the Fighting Polygons). But they're just super different in both of Wolf's Smash appearances, honestly.

 

[Kirbeh]

His Brawl Dash Attack is pretty much the same as Fox's Up Smash too. Now it's completely different as well. They share a very minor amount of moves as is either way.

At least in some earlier games, Wolf was actually just a palette swap. But they couldn't be more different in Smash. I could understand if it was just comparing their pure Models(like the Fighting Polygons). But they're just super different in both of Wolf's Smash appearances, honestly.

It's been so long since I played Brawl, I'd forgotten his dash was Fox Up Smash. He basically traded one Fox move for another then. Got a new dash attack but inherited Fox Nair. Iirc his Brawl neutral air was curling up and flipping/spinning.

 

[fogbadge]

I sometimes forget Wolf is even IN smash lol

i'm the same with snake and little mac

 

[Oracle Link]

I will actively assemble a team to vote in Goku that will eclipse Bandana Dee votes.

Aslong as its kid goku im gonna accept it!

 

[Lionfranky]

I don't really even think 2B needs to get changed too much, Palutena already shows off some leg and if 2B's garment is made just a little bit longer I feel like this is a pretty easy thing to work around - it hangs pretty similarly. Images are not cooperating with me right now but look at her art for FFXIV, it looks like barely anything would need to change.

I feel like the "good boys and girls" comment sent us back to the stone age in a post-Bayonetta world. Smash is not some overly puritan game, Mai is just an especially difficult character to censor and going overboard would probably be a waste of dev time for a single background character. If 2B was under heavy consideration to be playable, or anyone else for that matter, they would figure it out fairly quickly.

I'm not even sure they even have to cover 2B's cleavage, considering Shantae's Mii outfit... I know they covered Mythra's chest area, but still...
I guess they would tighten her skirt opening and add a longer pants beneath skirt like Palutena. But, they will still leave thigh skin exposed somewhat imo.

 

[UserKev]

Zelda speculation has got to be one of the most unpromising when regarding Newcomers. It manages to introduce special impact side characters, Midna, Skull Kid, Ghirahim that are jokingly reduced to the one off role by Zelda's different timelines and incarnations policy. And Sakurai clearly doesn't take the series seriously. And I don't anymore either. There's no guarantee when regarding Newcomers for Zelda.

 

[fogbadge]

Zelda speculation has got to be one of the most unpromising when regarding Newcomers. It manages to introduce special impact side characters, Midna, Skull Kid, Ghirahim that are jokingly reduced to the one off role by Zelda's different timelines and incarnations policy. And Sakurai clearly doesn't take the series seriously. And I don't anymore either. There's no guarantee when regarding Newcomers for Zelda.

that certainly is true although I would go further and say the next newcomer for any franchise isn’t a sure thing

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Getting briefly back to the subject of the ballot, it would be interesting to see what internal data collection Nintendo has these days relative to a decade ago. I think of the reasons the Smash vote was a necessity to a degree was because the company was fairly inconsistent about getting real numbers and picture of general fan interest in that late 2000s/early 2010s a lot of the time. The lack of understanding about K Rool's popularity specifically is in some ways one of the biggest indictments about how Nintendo could be out of touch with fandom sentiment that was fairly well known.

But in an era where social media engagement is even widespread and given a fairly good comprehension of online trends, (see the execution of Directs) it could be that Nintendo has simply gotten better at seeing where the big fan interest is with stuff like Smash characters without a ballot.

 

[UserKev]

that certainly is true although I would go further and say the next newcomer for any franchise isn’t a sure thing

Wrong. Pokemon, or AC can easily see a Newcomer.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Wrong. Pokemon, or AC can easily see a Newcomer.

Pokémon, absolutely.
Animal Crossing, not so much.

Mario, Fire Emblem, and Xenoblade are also likely to get newcomers.

 

[fogbadge]

Wrong. Pokemon, or AC can easily see a Newcomer.

oh? Tom nook may make sense as the next AC newcomer but that doesn’t mean he’s getting in and with Pokemon I’m not entirely sure there is a front runner. certainly not one that’ll be forgotten about by smash speculation when the next gen starts

 

[Hadokeyblade]

As long as Xenoblade keeps getting new games i can easily see Xenoblade becoming like Mario/Pokemon/Fire emblem and getting a new character in every new smash game.

And then people will eventually complain about it even though it makes sense.