Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Swamp Sensei]

Opossum
TCT~Phantom

You both make very valid points.

But you're also talking about completely different types of data and different types of data collection.

Regardless, this should not have spun into a petty argument. Because the argument turned into oneupmanship. Let's keep it clean please.

 

[dream1ng]

It's wild how in the bubble one must be to say that Isaac actually competes with Waluigi. Yeah, in terms of fanbase demand (maybe), and that's it. You know not all popularity ends once you go past the confines of the active, online fanbase. You know the Smash team doesn't just look at us, right?

Also to say things like "Waluigi is polarizing, unlike Ridley". Like... where were you? Were you there? What are you talking about?

Besides the fact that no one has actually been able to counter with a more overall popular first-party candidate, you can tell Waluigi has wider appeal, from trending on twitter over nothing, to having articles written about him, again, over nothing, or just not getting into Smash, or by Reggie acknowledging how many people want him. Or just the copious, unrelenting volume of Waluigi memes. All you have to do is be aware of the internet to know how much further past the Smash circles he resonates.

It's funny how there's a rejection of indicators that Waluigi is quite popular to supplant the suggestion the wider audience is more interested in characters where there's basically no proof at all. I know it's with the aim to invalidate what the silent majority thinks, but it's also disregarding that if you put the supercasual aside, which is silly considering he's clearly a popular Mario character, Waluigi still scores highly with the other demographics too, where the names like King Boo and Pauline don't equal.

That's the point. He's not just some casual-oriented character, closer to Isabelle. He's not just some character general gamers would dig, like Joker. He's not just a fanbase favorite, like Isaac. He covers the spread and can accommodate all three strains. Who else is going to do that?

 

[Troykv]

It's wild how in the bubble one must be to say that Isaac actually competes with Waluigi. Yeah, in terms of fanbase demand (maybe), and that's it. You know not all popularity ends once you go past the confines of the active, online fanbase. You know the Smash team doesn't just look at us, right?

Yup! I agree with this, Isaac is the kind of character that mostly exists in Smash dedicated stuff, a bit like Geno in that regard, when you go outside of Smash hardcore, I imagine the wants for Smash characters become mostly Third Parties.

I don't think we're missing a First Party character that the "masses" could feel like a missing link, right?

We have all the major franchises, all the "all-stars" that even your neighbor that only plays PS games know about.

 

[SPEN18]

Between Waluigi, Dee, and Isaac, who is more popular? Well, that's the question, isn't it? Actually, the question might be more "who does Nintendo think is the most popular?" for the purposes of filling in a hypothetical "fan pick" quota (if we're not strictly speaking about filling in a hypothetical quota like that, then we have to bring in plenty of factors outside popularity to determine who would be more likely). I don't think there's enough evidence to make a conclusive statement for any of the three being the absolute topper over the other two, outside of the observation that Waluigi is easily going to appeal the most to the casual market at large.

Another component to bring up, though, is the Smash Ballot results, which constitute the one piece of popularity polling data that we know, without a doubt, that Nintendo has seen and has taken into account extensively. The largest exit poll compilation that we have seems to suggest Isaac was the topper, even on par with the Banjo behemoth. Waluigi was (unfairly) hurt by AT status in that poll, and Bandana Dee was well below Isaac. If we're looking at which character would be included explicitly due to popularity and, for the purposes of the arguing exercise, no other factors, this could be significant if the exit poll data ends up roughly accurate (best argument we have in favor of that is comparing the content added to Ultimate to the poll results).

Idk, though, all three have good merits popularity-wise or other-wise.

 

[Sucumbio]

Ooo bwd or waluigi... Cause a 3 way w Issac seems like nah just really gonna be about them two... Both in I say in next Smash (age well pls).

BWD

 

[TCT~Phantom]

It's wild how in the bubble one must be to say that Isaac actually competes with Waluigi. Yeah, in terms of fanbase demand (maybe), and that's it. You know not all popularity ends once you go past the confines of the active, online fanbase. You know the Smash team doesn't just look at us, right?

Also to say things like "Waluigi is polarizing, unlike Ridley". Like... where were you? Were you there? What are you talking about?

Besides the fact that no one has actually been able to counter with a more overall popular first-party candidate, you can tell Waluigi has wider appeal, from trending on twitter over nothing, to having articles written about him, again, over nothing, or just not getting into Smash, or by Reggie acknowledging how many people want him. Or just the copious, unrelenting volume of Waluigi memes. All you have to do is be aware of the internet to know how much further past the Smash circles he resonates.

It's funny how there's a rejection of indicators that Waluigi is quite popular to supplant the suggestion the wider audience is more interested in characters where there's basically no proof at all. I know it's with the aim to invalidate what the silent majority thinks, but it's also disregarding that if you put the supercasual aside, which is silly considering he's clearly a popular Mario character, Waluigi still scores highly with the other demographics too, where the names like King Boo and Pauline don't equal.

That's the point. He's not just some casual-oriented character, closer to Isabelle. He's not just some character general gamers would dig, like Joker. He's not just a fanbase favorite, like Isaac. He covers the spread and can accommodate all three strains. Who else is going to do that?

I mean, I highlighted specifically in the dedicated hardcore smash speculation scene, Waluigi is not the most demanded first party. Among casual viewers? Sure he is probably more wanted than Isaac.

Could the supercasual community overwhelmingly want Waluigi? Sure, I even say that is a possibility. But it is just that: a possibility. It is nigh impossible to poll the silent majority, especially when these kind of polls tend to not reach those that aren’t as engaged. I’m not saying that the silent majority doesn’t want Waluigi: I am saying that it is close to impossible to say they overwhelmingly want him. Could they? Sure, but without hard evidence it’s hard to say. You just end up with correlating evidence. Casuals like Mario spin-offs so therefore they must also like Waluigi in smash.

I already posted about how the Twitter algorithm doesn’t matter too much at the end of the day, but to tldr any character with two dozen funny posts would have had a shot at trending when the discussion was about smash on Twitter. The algorithm also would share said posts to people who were engaged with Nintendo stuff due to how it works. Memes also do not instantly relate to love either. The Star Wars prequels are memed to death, but I doubt “love” is the word everyone would use to describe them.

I also deliberately highlighted characters that are either more demanded or in the same ballpark as Waluigi like Dee or Isaac or could be in the same ballpark with the casual silent majority like Tom Nook. Dee might hit with the casual silent majority too. It’s close to impossible to speak for the silent majority.

Could Waluigi be the one character to unite every fandom part of smash? Sure. It could happen. But unless there’s hard, conclusive evidence beyond circumstantial evidence, it’s just gonna remain that: a possibility.

And yes, Waluigi is more polarizing than Ridley. Ridley’s debate was about whether he was possible, not that people were divided about wanting him. Plenty of people who said Ridley was too big we’re fine with the idea of him getting in. The discourse around Waluigi is more sour at the end of the day, despite several people being lukewarm.

I for one do not care strongly of he gets in or doesn’t. Claiming he is far and away the biggest first party request when there is enough evidence to cast a reasonable doubt is where I come in as a Debby downer. If you want Waluigi, that’s fine. He’s a popular character who has a solid shot. But he is not the biggest first party request overwhelmingly. Not in the casual silent majority, not in the hardcore smash fandom.

Also this doesn’t factor in third parties at all, which there certainly are some who can match or exceed his fan demand.

 

[Gengar84]

Personally, I think Waluigi and Bandana Dee would still have a really good chance regardless of any fan support. They are probably two of the most recurring characters on Nintendo that aren’t already playable in Smash. Even if it isn’t the next game, I’d be shocked if we never get either of these characters at some point just based on how often we see them.

Isaac is another story, where I feel that he would be getting in primarily due to fan support. There’s always the chance he could get in anyways as a surprise character but I feel his fanbase is his most likely path to join the roster. Out of the three, Isaac is my most wanted since I really enjoyed Golden Sun and he would bring in a brand new IP to the roster, which is one advantage he has over Waluigi and Bandana Dee.

I believe that the number one most likely first party character is a second Splatoon character of some kind, whether that be an Octoling or someone else. Splatoon has become a very popular franchise and is probably Nintendo’s most successful new IP in the last decade and probably far longer. At the very least, the Octoling could be easy echoes so I’d be a bit surprised if we didn’t at least get that. Their potential as a variant character puts them a step above even Waluigi and Bandana Dee in my opinion, who would each likely have to be completely unique.

 

[Sucumbio]

Personally, I think Waluigi and Bandana Dee would still have a really good chance regardless of any fan support. They are probably two of the most recurring characters on Nintendo that aren’t already playable in Smash. Even if it isn’t the next game, I’d be shocked if we never get either of these characters at some point just based on how often we see them.

Isaac is another story, where I feel that he would be getting in primarily due to fan support. There’s always the chance he could get in anyways as a surprise character but I feel his fanbase is his most likely path to join the roster. Out of the three, Isaac is my most wanted since I really enjoyed Golden Sun and he would bring in a brand new IP to the roster, which is one advantage he has over Waluigi and Bandana Dee.

I believe that the number one most likely first party character is a second Splatoon character of some kind, whether that be an Octoling or someone else. Splatoon has become a very popular franchise and is probably Nintendo’s most successful new IP in the last decade and probably far longer. At the very least, the Octoling could be easy echoes so I’d be a bit surprised if we didn’t at least get that. Their potential as a variant character puts them a step above even Waluigi and Bandana Dee in my opinion, who would each likely have to be completely unique.

I have not looked at sales and download info for the Kirby franchise dating back to Splatoon coming out but I'm guessing it's been out sold by a lot by now. I concur it's very likely we get a second Splatoon character in the next Smash.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Waluigi is an odd duck in that I've observed there's widespread casual support of him, but not as many strongly passionate fans campaigning for him like other first party characters get. He feels like someone that would make more top ten lists thanks to casual fans sentiments, but not end up as the most requested as often as a BWD because so much of his support isn't necessarily by those who see him as their most wanted, just one of several.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Considering twitter has waaaaaaay more people discussing smash on there (it's one of the most used apps in the world) than this site that doesn't have nearly as many active users as it did in its hey day, I'd definitely say trending datas and such are more reliable to gauge who's highly talked and possibly requested rather than small polls conducted here (especially if it was truly on 200 participants). Reminds me of how someone said because Rayman had less pages this time around than last time that was the definitive proof he fell off despite the fact if you looked everywhere else it would suggest otherwise. (Not looking for an argument just saying this site is far from the end all be all of who's popular)

(And the fact character thread pages can be just the same people talking over and over)

 

[Sucumbio]

I'm still thinking about that spooky pokemon reveal lol

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm still thinking about that spooky pokemon reveal lol

Yeah, its probably my second or third favorite of the new pokemon shown off so far. I do really like Sprigatito and Fuecoco. I also think Farigiraf is cool, if only due to making Girafarig not just a random forgotten pokemon.

If the leaks are true for Scarlet and Violet, there is a metric ton of stuff they are holding close to their chest. Closer than they held their cards for even Gen 6. Do not be surprised in a few weeks when Gen 8 starts to leak like a sieve. I guarantee that the full roster of pokemon in the game will with proof leak before the street date. Probably ~ 1 week before.

 

[fogbadge]

I'm still thinking about that spooky pokemon reveal lol

wasn’t spooky at all I felt

 

[Wonder Smash]

...It's not "less". It's a fully represented world in every way at most but music(which isn't saying much, due to Minecraft being a different kind of game). It has over 20 skins, multiple texture packs, full world packs, etc. It's pretty much the equivalent to what we have as a proper Fighter's Pack. It's not nearly as small as a single Costume either. It only didn't get Sounds, but most notably, has the highest amount of skins of any such mash-up pack(albeit, not all of them are low either). Even more than Super Mario, with the sole thing it got of note was also sounds, so only at best the second largest pack in Minecraft to begin with. Which makes sense, as they're both huge franchises from their respective company.

To be exact, it has a UI Texture, a World Template, Item Textures, Block Textures, Mob Textures, and Skin packs. I admit it's kind of hard to find the information, but no, it's not just skin packs like you claim.

That honor goes to Banjo & Kazooie, who got simple a few skins, not actually incorporating the entire world into it. But more to the point, while there may be other reasons, it's pretty unreasonable to think Microsoft or Nintendo could be against it when they pretty much already did so beforehand. For the record, these mash-up packs have variable larger or smaller versions, but they are also the big DLC packs you can get, actually the equivalent to the Fighter's Passes. Some won't always have sounds, and the skins are quite a huge amount to begin with, with the lowest barely being 21, and the highest at 48. This isn't "minor" like you put it, it's the game's biggest crossover DLC design.

All of that is still pretty minor, no matter how you put it. It's just skins and textures in a game that's not even part of its own series, so yes, that's significantly less compared to an actual game. Everything else in Smash had at least one game on a Nintendo console featuring a character before they appeared in that Smash game. It would be kind of silly to say a character should also be in just because of skins and textures from a separate game.

Meanwhile "just skins" is far more closer to either Spirits or Mii Costumes, which are actual minor updates(and often times comes in around 5 skins per pack. This doesn't mean other reasons couldn't exist, but you did get your data wrong and are blatantly downplaying the big DLC stuff Minecraft gets to make your point seem better. Evidence pretty much shows its clearly that Nintendo and Microsoft don't have an issue with having Halo be a big DLC thing on the Nintendo system. Sakurai's the sole wild card. It's not that other reasons couldn't exist(for instance, licensing was denied, or the fact it's more than just likeness. As a 3D Model, they could want him to be more accurate to his proportions. Other possible reasons exist. Halo having a minor appearance isn't actually one of them, since it's an actual rather big appearance, especially for what is normally a system exclusive option. Sony couldn't get this(either they're too pigheaded to accept or Microsoft isn't willing to fully work with them), which shows it's not some "yeah, we'll give it out easily" either way. Clearly extra thought is put into how they handle one of Microsoft's top franchises.

To be fair, I'm guessing you legitimately didn't know it was a full pack and just a minor set of costumes, so it's understandable what your premise was. You were under the impression it was way smaller than what happened. It's actually rather difficult to easily find the data, even on the wikis, so I get where you're coming from on that end. You can't just search Halo Mash-Up Pack and immediately get a useful page. You have to sort through all the links to get clear information.

All of that is still pretty minor, no matter how you put it. It's just skins and textures in a game that's not even part of its own series, so yes, that's significantly less compared to an actual game. Everything else in Smash had at least one game on a Nintendo console featuring a character before they appeared in that Smash game. It would be kind of silly to say a character should also be in just because of skins and textures from a separate game.

As for the other thing, yes, if you bring up some kind of hypothetical, some people will ask if you know more of the details, since it was your idea. Nobody's finding it odd you simply didn't know cause it wasn't released, but you shouldn't be surprised that people ask for more details on any premise you come up with. That's just normal conversation. I don't know why you're being weird about it or defensive about it anyway. It wasn't some big deal to begin with. I thought you knew because you brought it up, but you didn't. It happens. In the end, sometimes you don't know things, and nobody's trying to chastise you for it. But we do have a right to ask for more details. My suggestion, in similar cases, is just to explain clearly you weren't basing it upon specific information and just were trying to open up a very fun concept, For the record, the game was atleast active by 2020, so there was easily enough time for it to get some Spirits, since it was in development early enough by design, as they showed off a teaser. Incidentally, the information that you required was somewhat there on Wikipedia, though not an exact development start, but when it went public. You can infer from that alone that there was a year or more time spent on the game, pretty easily in time. Another way to put this is that... you should try to do a bit of research instead of brushing off questions as "I don't know." Try and look for any details that help first before replying. Replying shouldn't be some fast thing, it should be trying to say what you want while respectively trying to properly take into account as much said as possible, and if that means doing some research before sending "Post reply", then so be it. For the record, I spent over 30 minutes on this post to find purely accurate details so you understand what I said better, and not simply just cause you got some details wrong(which as I spoke of, clearly were hard to find, so it's understandable). I hope you understand this point better, but if you're debating, take your time to post, as you're not on a timelimit. Accuracy is more important to explaining one's points than "just saying stuff fast enough", which, well, means one can make errors.

I'm...not sure exactly what you're getting at. What you were talking about was somewhat unrelated what I was saying, as I didn't mention anything about when the game was in development, as I already stated. What I was talking about was if the game had been an earlier Switch title alongside the others I mentioned. So not only was it strange for you ask me that, it should be no surprise if I couldn't answer that because that's info only the company can give out. Even in what you found, it just said it was teased, which really isn't enough to explain what's going on with the development. Because the truth is, aren't any details.

I'm not being weird or defensive about it. It's just that I found your response to be kind of awkward, as if you were really expecting me to answer something that had nothing to do with what I said and I couldn't possibly know about at this moment either.

 

[StrangeKitten]

I may be pessimistic, but I just don't see Sakurai desiring Geno to be in anymore, especially since there are still big Square-Enix characters getting in before him.

Dunno about Sakurai's own feelings, but I similarly feel like Geno isn't happening. I could see Sakurai still wanting him, but Square-Enix has loads of characters they would likely see as higher priority. Ultimate had adding a bunch of fan faves as one of its priorities, but, not that fan faves will be off the table in the future, that could very well be a lesser priority of future Smash games. And it's not like there's a lack of characters fans will love who aren't Geno. You can't really fault S-E for going with other choices when they've got a dozen or more strong ones, and they could feel that SMRPG isn't lacking for reps anyway (which it's not - Mario, Bowser, and Peach have been on the roster for decades and aren't going anywhere even if a future game makes a lot of cuts). While Geno may get brought up as a fan fave, I doubt Sakurai is gonna push back much if S-E chooses another character.

I love Geno. I'll continue to want and support him. But I can't shake the feeling that Ultimate was his last chance. We're only getting further and further away from when SMRPG came out. Barring some major thing that revitalizes his chances (like an SMRPG remake, sequel that has him as a main character again, or prominent role in a Mario movie if we get follow-ups to the upcoming one), I feel like this is the end of the (star) road.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Spoiler: It's a lot. I did trim it down massively, though.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I mean, if you actually read what I said, you'd know that's not the whole story. First, DLC models prove what you said wrong; if stuff costs more, it's because it has more content. They are not identical levels of content no matter how you go about it. That's just basic business. It costs more because it requires more. In addition, the reason mash-up packs cost more is because it includes some notable things; normally include modifications to the title screen, a skin pack, a texture pack, and a themed world; many also include themed music tracks or make them available for download. The second you turn a game into another themed version of it, that's not a "minor" change. That's a pretty major change to the game itself. That's why there's a major price jump.

Yet, that still doesn't compare to an actual game, which is what you still don't seem to get. All you're basically saying is that the mash-up is official, in which nobody is denying but that's not the point. In the end, it's all just skins and textures within another game, which is less than what other series had before they were represented in Smash.

Second, the reason wasn't simply "they showed jump in a fairly major way within the game's settings"(in practice, that's the case). What also is important is that Microsoft puts their exclusive content on Nintendo's systems overall within a crossover in another game. And not just a bunch of skins, but outright represented the world. What it means is Microsoft is okay with collaborating with Nintendo overall when it comes to exclusive content. This is why it's actually much weirder Halo has no content in Smash. It's not just a fairly major gameplay crossover piece, it's that it's a big deal with how it happened. This is also part of why Microsoft and Nintendo are so chummy with each other. They're in very good graces, which is part of what led to us even having Microsoft content in Smash. Minecraft alone was already in talk as of 2015. That Halo Mash-Up Pack? Also 2015. That's kind of a big deal, since as early as that, they've collaborated with their content. Though we don't know exactly when talks of Steve started in 2015, Halo's Mash-Up Pack was in October. Either way, they happened around a pretty similar time, so they could've affected each other by quite a bit. After getting that content, Sakurai or Nintendo could've easily talked with them about the concept, and knowing how well they collaborate, it's easy to see why the timing is so close. Besides that, we did get an Minecraft 3DS design created by Microsoft, so it's basically showing that the Nintendo trusted them a lot. But more importantly, that it's pretty hard to say Nintendo nor Microsoft would say no to the idea. You seemed to have missed the core point, in which that only Sakurai would be the reasonable with all this information known, to not want to add Halo to the line-up of Smash content. Nintendo heavily trusts Microsoft, and vice versa. So there's no real reason to believe they'd say no. Whether it's because Sakurai never thought of it, or didn't like the idea, or anything else not related to Nintendo and Microsoft, who knows. It could even be something closer to "the licensing just was too much in the end", a valid reason why the companies decided to not go with it. Costumes in Smash, while not terribly large content, do require a bit more work than said skins(but to be fair, those skin packs are basically spirits while the mash-up packs are actually still the equivalent to a full character pack in practice and content. And either way, require quite a bit more work. User Interface changes, as I've noted before, are actually not very simple to do. While it may seem like the idea of game mods are pretty simple cause so many exist, most are broken messes and very few actually are near glitch-free anyway. They're actually pretty difficult in practice and takes a lot of time and work. And the reality is, those mash-up packs are basically normal game mods that cost money in Minecraft. They don't charge for basic updates or sometimes exclusive skins/mash-up packs, but that's it.

I personally don't find it weird. Like I said before, with Halo not having any games on Nintendo consoles, I'm not surprised that it's not represented in Smash. Banjo and Minecraft have been on Nintendo consoles and while I'm not saying that's the only reason they're in Smash. it's something that I don't think should be overlooked. The fact that Sakurai mentioned a character's appearances on Nintendo consoles during an interview when talking about Cloud means that it is something that's important to him some way. Heck, it may even be important to Nintendo. Heck, at one point, Nintendo (on their website) even mentioned that the series that Persona spun off from has a long history on their consoles. So it is clear that a connection to Nintendo does matter more than some people think.

Besides being entirely related to what would make your hypothetical in any way possible,

You do know my hypothetical includes getting a stage, right?

I'm talking about it being released as an early Switch title before Smash Ultimate was revealed, like Super Mario Odyssey and Zelda: Breath of the Wild were. I'm saying if Kirby and the Forgotten Land got released alongside them, I could picture it getting the same kind of content they got.

 

[DarthEnderX]

tl;dr...the last 4 pages.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Spoiler

Anyway, I'm not going to go on beyond this. You clearly don't want to look over the bigger data(as I've provided it many times, and you did kind of dismiss a lot of said data, so I can't come to any other conclusion here), and that's fine. I work my points based upon logic and evidence shown. Thus, I don't find strict biases nor opinions alone to provide a very strong point. When evidence shows otherwise, I'm going to go towards that. That doesn't mean said evidence always leads to the correct conclusion, but I don't find gut feelings useful either way as a debate tool. This isn't a "could be cool" situation either way. In both cases, the issue relies on actual technical data to explain the situations. If data can't back up your point, it's not strong evidence to consider it a likely situation. As you aren't providing any, I can't really consider your point to be that strong. And yes, for the record, I think it'd have been great if we got Forgotten Land content, but I took the time to look into why it couldn't have, and then I did realize that all the 1st party stuff is from games being developed at the right time for it... which the game didn't. Thus, the release date was, well, proven to mean little alone(and it has some meaning, but only in the context of why it released late). That should make some clear sense, I hope. And while I know it's a little annoying to reiterate a point or two, it's probably a good idea to take each singular point into account as long as it's not a strict repeat when replying. It's why I make sure to cover every base, not, well, giving shorter bits. But for a tl;dr version of a point or two.

• Only game releases matter.
  • This doesn't actually account for why Sakurai even considers any kind of appearance, which is licensing first and foremost.
• This game released fairly late, so of course it didn't get content
  • Said game also was in development well before Smash Ultimate DLC ended, so it's clearly not just that. What happens is a game also must be in development at the correct time to be considered for content in Smash. The development was going to either be in 2018, which might've been in time, or 2019, too late. However, said game got delayed further, so there's no way it could've gotten said content.

You get the idea. ...Also, apparently there's a quote markup I didn't know of. Good to know > does that.

 

[fogbadge]

how about we talk about toad for while? we never talk about toad any more

 

[Gengar84]

how about we talk about toad for while? we never talk about toad any more

I think Toad has a real chance and I feel like he’s being a bit overlooked, personally. If the Mario movie is a success, I feel that may help his chances even more. Similarly to how I feel that the Sonic movies increase the chances of seeing either Eggman, Tails, or Knuckles. If Toad’s portrayal in the film ends up being as likable as the Sonic characters, I can definitely see support for him greatly increase.

 

[fogbadge]

I think Toad has a real chance and I feel like he’s being a bit overlooked, personally. If the Mario movie is a success, I feel that may help his chances even more. Similarly to how I feel that the Sonic movies increase the chances of seeing either Eggman, Tails, or Knuckles. If Toad’s portrayal in the film ends up being as likable as the Sonic characters, I can definitely see support for him greatly increase.

so long as kegan doesn’t voice him in smash

 

[Gengar84]

so long as kegan doesn’t voice him in smash

I wouldn’t expect him to. Just like I don’t think Jim Carrey would voice Eggman or Ryan Reynolds voicing Detective Pikachu if they made it in. They’re almost definitely going to keep the Hollywood actors for just their portrayal in the movies.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I hope we get another Sonic character someday. Toad I feel has a fair chance, but not having some notable unique features is always going to be a detriment(part of why people look more at Captain Toad these days. Though to be fair, some feel it's like getting both, despite them being completely different people, nor share abilities either, so can't be a Pikmin & Captain situation).

 

[Laniv]

how about we talk about toad for while? we never talk about toad any more

I am always ready to talk about Toad

He's the most important Mario character (and maybe the most important Nintendo character period) that isn't yet playable, and I think he could have a fun, unique moveset by giving him a power-up-themed moveset! The Propeller Mushroom Up-B is rather obvious, but I'd imagine he'd toss a Poison Mushroom for a neutral B, dashing with the Golden Mushroom for a side B, and much like the princess he serves, would spawn a random Mario item from a mystery block for a down B. Notice how a lot of his moves would be based on mushrooms.

Outside of that, I believe Toad would be a pint-sized powerhouse, based on his showings in Super Mario Bros. 2 and 3D World, easily closing the gap with his speed and surprising foes with his deceptive strength. And his Final Smash could be the Warp Whistle, summoning a massive tornado to whisk goes away.

 

[Gengar84]

Toad could always borrow Peach’s turnip special since Super Mario Bros. 2 was the first time that either character was playable. It could be edited a bit to make it feel unique. For example, he could pull the turnip up faster similarly to how he played in SMB2. I would say that his biggest obstacle is that he’s already a part of Peach’s moveset but that didn’t stop Chrom.

I feel like he could play even more heavily into Super Mario Bros. 2 for his other moves as well. For example he could ride a flying carpet for his forward special. I think there’s actually a lot to work with besides just the turnip special with a SMB2 inspired moveset.

 

[fogbadge]

but not having some notable unique features is always going to be a detriment

see i find that thinking a little flawed. toad has access to so many things the rest of the mario gang hasn't used. from many power ups across many games, to equipment from untouched spin offs. this is smash after all he could even use MP dice

 

[Aligo]

I second this, due to the sheer amount of variety that toad has in the mario games and his different body shape could definitely be used to make a character different from the rest of the mario series.

Toad won't have as much trouble as say, the new fire emblem protag, as they will always be taken with scrutiny regards of outcome especially if they use a sword, or the XC3 protag(s?), would likely end up as derivatives of either Shulk or Aegis due to the potential mechanics they could bring already existing in the prior two.

I think that toad actually has more to draw from in terms of moveset than many competing first party picks.

Actually that brings up another point, both of the examples I made probably won't be relevant during the next selection round for smash, XC3 as monolith will likely want to promote the next 'arc' of xenoblade that will be starting with 4, and maybe fire emblem, as the release schedule can be all over the place resulting in lots of releases in a short span.

In contrast you can't go 5 minutes without tripping over something related to toad, so I would definitely say he has a better chance than most.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

see i find that thinking a little flawed. toad has access to so many things the rest of the mario gang hasn't used. from many power ups across many games, to equipment from untouched spin offs. this is smash after all he could even use MP dice

...Those aren't "unique features". Those are features everybody have. Remember, he's not the only Mario contender under the sun. Every single remaining Mario character(or at least a bunch) can use said features, so they don't make him stand out directly from those others. Even if it's, say, Waluigi and King Boo. Who both can use same said abilities. This is why it's a detriment. It's not an ability that's specific to him within his own series. While it's not saying it's a bad moveset idea whatsoever(no, they're great ideas!), it doesn't make it an ability specific to him and only him. It's actually something Sakurai talked about during Brawl, when choosing various characters. Of course, that doesn't mean it applies to all, like Echo Fighters, or any general Model Swap Fighter(clones, semi-clones, "barely count as a clone"(for this last one, this applies more to ones like Wolf or Ness, who both use a core base instead of borrowing a few moves, but blatantly are highly different from their parents Fox and Mario respectively).

Of course, there might be a move exclusive to him besides being a reasonably good jumper in Super Mario Bros. 2 USA to look at(which to be fair, the "charge up to jump high" is something all can do, yet was given to Luigi in Super Paper Mario. So it can happen... at least in some Mario spin-offs. I mean, does anyone know of an ability he explicitly uses that nobody else ever has. Or even just the basic Toads only, of which he's not that much different from besides being a different person? I'm curious on that front. Although that's kind of why Captain Toad has a lot of support behind him. He has some stuff more exclusive to his design, not even just limited to how his weight would be logically different since he's meant to have trouble jumping(sometimes not even allowed to, heh) due to his weight of his backpack. But also for gameplay mechanics. I know that Captain Toedette does this too(part of why she's suggested as a possible alt. Though logically normal Toadette makes a good alt for Toad, assuming that her unique hair wouldn't affect the model. And it's not like she couldn't work as an Echo Fighter... as could Captain Toadette for Captain Toad. Why yes, that's 4 potential unique characters in some way, heh). But you get the core idea. This is why I'm not that surprised he has yet to make it in(regular Toad). I want him in, but as long as he lacks an exclusive move, he's far harder to look at from the current perspective. And since he's not an easy Echo Fighter material anyway, that also doesn't exactly help his point. They also kind of are odd on the Toad Guard move. It's very clear in the Japanese wording, but the actual Trophies do nothing to specify which Toad is being used as a Guard. However, to be fair, they all look alike so it's not like they can't just change the name in Japan slightly, to Kinoko Guard.

Toad could always borrow Peach’s turnip special since Super Mario Bros. 2 was the first time that either character was playable. It could be edited a bit to make it feel unique. For example, he could pull the turnip up faster similarly to how he played in SMB2. I would say that his biggest obstacle is that he’s already a part of Peach’s moveset but that didn’t stop Chrom.

As I've said before, Chrom is not in the same position either way. He's just a quick summon as part of the overall Final Smash and plays a very small role in it.

However, as I said above, the issue isn't that Toad is part of it anyway. They can literally do the same move and change it slightly in Japan to specify it's a different one. Or even change it to a Yellow Toad or something. The issue was always "what is his personal move that we can start looking at to make a coherent moveset out of", as he obviously wouldn't be an Echo or clone. He's too different in bodyshape to do more than borrow animations(and obviously Turnips don't require extra work outside of Toad having... obvious animations added. Any parameters are pretty easy to fix up). Having more Super Mario Bros. 2 USA abilities sounds cool too, as we don't have a charge jump specifically, and while it's not completely exclusive to him, it's still neat.

Incidentally, I still don't know if the Japanese Toad Spirit is named after Kinopio, the character, or Kinoko, the species. MarioWiki, while often reliable, doesn't list the actual Japanese wording, soooooo. Hard to say. So either it's hard to tell or Smash Ultimate made an easy error, heh.

I feel like he could play even more heavily into Super Mario Bros. 2 for his other moves as well. For example he could ride a flying carpet for his forward special. I think there’s actually a lot to work with besides just the turnip special with a SMB2 inspired moveset.

Those sound like cool ideas.

Toad's odd cause the trophies don't imply it's the actual main Toad, though the official Japanese name makes it clear. Kinopio Guard.

 

[Aligo]

Since sonic was mentioned a few posts ago, what route should they go with in terms of adding more content to smash? As far as I remember, there was no clear frontrunner, but several picks that were all viable options. Same goes for stages.

 

[fogbadge]

...Those aren't "unique features". Those are features everybody have. Remember, he's not the only Mario contender under the sun. Every single remaining Mario character(or at least a bunch) can use said features, so they don't make him stand out directly from those others. Even if it's, say, Waluigi and King Boo. Who both can use same said abilities. This is why it's a detriment. It's not an ability that's specific to him within his own series. While it's not saying it's a bad moveset idea whatsoever(no, they're great ideas!), it doesn't make it an ability specific to him and only him. It's actually something Sakurai talked about during Brawl, when choosing various characters. Of course, that doesn't mean it applies to all, like Echo Fighters, or any general Model Swap Fighter(clones, semi-clones, "barely count as a clone"(for this last one, this applies more to ones like Wolf or Ness, who both use a core base instead of borrowing a few moves, but blatantly are highly different from their parents Fox and Mario respectively).

Of course, there might be a move exclusive to him besides being a reasonably good jumper in Super Mario Bros. 2 USA to look at(which to be fair, the "charge up to jump high" is something all can do, yet was given to Luigi in Super Paper Mario. So it can happen... at least in some Mario spin-offs. I mean, does anyone know of an ability he explicitly uses that nobody else ever has. Or even just the basic Toads only, of which he's not that much different from besides being a different person? I'm curious on that front. Although that's kind of why Captain Toad has a lot of support behind him. He has some stuff more exclusive to his design, not even just limited to how his weight would be logically different since he's meant to have trouble jumping(sometimes not even allowed to, heh) due to his weight of his backpack. But also for gameplay mechanics. I know that Captain Toedette does this too(part of why she's suggested as a possible alt. Though logically normal Toadette makes a good alt for Toad, assuming that her unique hair wouldn't affect the model. And it's not like she couldn't work as an Echo Fighter... as could Captain Toadette for Captain Toad. Why yes, that's 4 potential unique characters in some way, heh). But you get the core idea. This is why I'm not that surprised he has yet to make it in(regular Toad). I want him in, but as long as he lacks an exclusive move, he's far harder to look at from the current perspective. And since he's not an easy Echo Fighter material anyway, that also doesn't exactly help his point. They also kind of are odd on the Toad Guard move. It's very clear in the Japanese wording, but the actual Trophies do nothing to specify which Toad is being used as a Guard. However, to be fair, they all look alike so it's not like they can't just change the name in Japan slightly, to Kinoko Guard.


As I've said before, Chrom is not in the same position either way. He's just a quick summon as part of the overall Final Smash and plays a very small role in it.

However, as I said above, the issue isn't that Toad is part of it anyway. They can literally do the same move and change it slightly in Japan to specify it's a different one. Or even change it to a Yellow Toad or something. The issue was always "what is his personal move that we can start looking at to make a coherent moveset out of", as he obviously wouldn't be an Echo or clone. He's too different in bodyshape to do more than borrow animations(and obviously Turnips don't require extra work outside of Toad having... obvious animations added. Any parameters are pretty easy to fix up). Having more Super Mario Bros. 2 USA abilities sounds cool too, as we don't have a charge jump specifically, and while it's not completely exclusive to him, it's still neat.

Incidentally, I still don't know if the Japanese Toad Spirit is named after Kinopio, the character, or Kinoko, the species. MarioWiki, while often reliable, doesn't list the actual Japanese wording, soooooo. Hard to say. So either it's hard to tell or Smash Ultimate made an easy error, heh.

that’s the point, not having a unique feature shouldn’t be disqualifying especially when the moveset potential is so fast you could have plenty left over for all the contenders. like Pokemon like fire emblem the vast majority of of characters have moved that they share with a lot of other characters. so to say a thing is a detriment is just false

 

[Perkilator]

Since sonic was mentioned a few posts ago, what route should they go with in terms of adding more content to smash? As far as I remember, there was no clear frontrunner, but several picks that were all viable options. Same goes for stages.

My dream has always been Dr. Eggman ever since Sephy was first shown off.

Spoiler: Hypothetical Eggman Challenger Pack

 

[Gengar84]

...Those aren't "unique features". Those are features everybody have. Remember, he's not the only Mario contender under the sun. Every single remaining Mario character(or at least a bunch) can use said features, so they don't make him stand out directly from those others. Even if it's, say, Waluigi and King Boo. Who both can use same said abilities. This is why it's a detriment. It's not an ability that's specific to him within his own series. While it's not saying it's a bad moveset idea whatsoever(no, they're great ideas!), it doesn't make it an ability specific to him and only him. It's actually something Sakurai talked about during Brawl, when choosing various characters. Of course, that doesn't mean it applies to all, like Echo Fighters, or any general Model Swap Fighter(clones, semi-clones, "barely count as a clone"(for this last one, this applies more to ones like Wolf or Ness, who both use a core base instead of borrowing a few moves, but blatantly are highly different from their parents Fox and Mario respectively).

Of course, there might be a move exclusive to him besides being a reasonably good jumper in Super Mario Bros. 2 USA to look at(which to be fair, the "charge up to jump high" is something all can do, yet was given to Luigi in Super Paper Mario. So it can happen... at least in some Mario spin-offs. I mean, does anyone know of an ability he explicitly uses that nobody else ever has. Or even just the basic Toads only, of which he's not that much different from besides being a different person? I'm curious on that front. Although that's kind of why Captain Toad has a lot of support behind him. He has some stuff more exclusive to his design, not even just limited to how his weight would be logically different since he's meant to have trouble jumping(sometimes not even allowed to, heh) due to his weight of his backpack. But also for gameplay mechanics. I know that Captain Toedette does this too(part of why she's suggested as a possible alt. Though logically normal Toadette makes a good alt for Toad, assuming that her unique hair wouldn't affect the model. And it's not like she couldn't work as an Echo Fighter... as could Captain Toadette for Captain Toad. Why yes, that's 4 potential unique characters in some way, heh). But you get the core idea. This is why I'm not that surprised he has yet to make it in(regular Toad). I want him in, but as long as he lacks an exclusive move, he's far harder to look at from the current perspective. And since he's not an easy Echo Fighter material anyway, that also doesn't exactly help his point. They also kind of are odd on the Toad Guard move. It's very clear in the Japanese wording, but the actual Trophies do nothing to specify which Toad is being used as a Guard. However, to be fair, they all look alike so it's not like they can't just change the name in Japan slightly, to Kinoko Guard.


As I've said before, Chrom is not in the same position either way. He's just a quick summon as part of the overall Final Smash and plays a very small role in it.

However, as I said above, the issue isn't that Toad is part of it anyway. They can literally do the same move and change it slightly in Japan to specify it's a different one. Or even change it to a Yellow Toad or something. The issue was always "what is his personal move that we can start looking at to make a coherent moveset out of", as he obviously wouldn't be an Echo or clone. He's too different in bodyshape to do more than borrow animations(and obviously Turnips don't require extra work outside of Toad having... obvious animations added. Any parameters are pretty easy to fix up). Having more Super Mario Bros. 2 USA abilities sounds cool too, as we don't have a charge jump specifically, and while it's not completely exclusive to him, it's still neat.

Incidentally, I still don't know if the Japanese Toad Spirit is named after Kinopio, the character, or Kinoko, the species. MarioWiki, while often reliable, doesn't list the actual Japanese wording, soooooo. Hard to say. So either it's hard to tell or Smash Ultimate made an easy error, heh.


Those sound like cool ideas.

Toad's odd cause the trophies don't imply it's the actual main Toad, though the official Japanese name makes it clear. Kinopio Guard.

I didn’t mean to imply that Toad would borrow Peach’s animations, just the move as a concept. Toad’s completely different body shape would indeed prevent them from saving any animation work. Still, the move fits him as well as it does Peach so I think it would be worth the extra animation effort to give him a similar move with slightly different properties.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

that’s the point, not having a unique feature shouldn’t be disqualifying especially when the moveset potential is so fast you could have plenty left over for all the contenders. like Pokemon like fire emblem the vast majority of of characters have moved that they share with a lot of other characters. so to say a thing is a detriment is just false

The reality is... it is. It's a big detriment to him because Sakurai is having trouble envisioning something that makes Toad stand out from the other Mario options. This is why many got in before he could, because they had unique options. The only other ones were some kind of straight clone(no semi-clone was added for Super Mario yet).

It'd be cool if it wasn't, but that's now it works. Unless you just want him to be basically a model swap of another character, which is his only other current chance, since nothing separates him exclusively from Mario(ironically Mario having the FLUDD is an exclusive thing). With more and more characters coming up, he is looking for unique traits outright to help choose the characters. Look at every Super Mario character added after Brawl(as none were added in there officially speaking. And even if you want to include Wario and Diddy, they clearly had unique abilities related to their character that made them heavily stand out, including from their own games). The closest to an exception is somewhat Bowser Jr., as the moveset is the Clown Car. However, the only other plausible characters that could use it at that point were... the Koopalings. Thus, they shared a common theme and it worked out fine(and they barely made it). Rosalina had her own canon powers mind you, and while she didn't entirely use them, she did use abilities based upon her overall powers to create a cosmic-based moveset. Something other characters couldn't really do anyway. Come Ultimate, we got a near identical clone(is identical in practice, but has some slightly different parameters) in Daisy, and then a unique fighter in PP, who had moves that others couldn't do either. So at most only Rosalina among the Super Mario characters is somewhat odd.

Toad doesn't even have something that, say, he and one other character has. Those sports, party, and kart abilities are quite clearly not "his" alone. Those Mario power-ups are not "his" alone. They are very cool ideas, but it doesn't scream Toad, but general Mario character at the end, since you can put that on many character options. But as I said, there's bound to be something that he's done that others haven't. There's like no one plausible in Wario's Woods, that he stars in, with the only other character being Wario, but he's not even treated strictly as Super Mario. It might be a decent starting point too, albeit, Puzzle stuff like that isn't exactly what I'd call a stand out for him, either way. Especially with stuff like Dr. Mario around, and more loosely Yoshi's Cookie.

This may also relate to part of why Waluigi's not in. His exclusive ability is air swimming. This does not make for a useful gimmick. It's cool, but it's pretty hard to make a moveset out of a single move. However, I think Toad had some kind of unique jump style in SMB2 USA? I keep forgetting he's the weakest jumper, but still. ...Which kind of becomes a fun hindsight joke since Captain Toad takes that gimmick even further.

 

[Gengar84]

The reality is... it is. It's a big detriment to him because Sakurai is having trouble envisioning something that makes Toad stand out from the other Mario options. This is why many got in before he could, because they had unique options. The only other ones were some kind of straight clone(no semi-clone was added for Super Mario yet).

It'd be cool if it wasn't, but that's now it works. Unless you just want him to be basically a model swap of another character, which is his only other current chance, since nothing separates him exclusively from Mario(ironically Mario having the FLUDD is an exclusive thing). With more and more characters coming up, he is looking for unique traits outright to help choose the characters. Look at every Super Mario character added after Brawl(as none were added in there officially speaking. And even if you want to include Wario and Diddy, they clearly had unique abilities related to their character that made them heavily stand out, including from their own games). The closest to an exception is somewhat Bowser Jr., as the moveset is the Clown Car. However, the only other plausible characters that could use it at that point were... the Koopalings. Thus, they shared a common theme and it worked out fine(and they barely made it). Rosalina had her own canon powers mind you, and while she didn't entirely use them, she did use abilities based upon her overall powers to create a cosmic-based moveset. Something other characters couldn't really do anyway. Come Ultimate, we got a near identical clone(is identical in practice, but has some slightly different parameters) in Daisy, and then a unique fighter in PP, who had moves that others couldn't do either. So at most only Rosalina among the Super Mario characters is somewhat odd.

Toad doesn't even have something that, say, he and one other character has. Those sports, party, and kart abilities are quite clearly not "his" alone. Those Mario power-ups are not "his" alone. They are very cool ideas, but it doesn't scream Toad, but general Mario character at the end, since you can put that on many character options. But as I said, there's bound to be something that he's done that others haven't. There's like no one plausible in Wario's Woods, that he stars in, with the only other character being Wario, but he's not even treated strictly as Super Mario. It might be a decent starting point too, albeit, Puzzle stuff like that isn't exactly what I'd call a stand out for him, either way. Especially with stuff like Dr. Mario around, and more loosely Yoshi's Cookie.

This may also relate to part of why Waluigi's not in. His exclusive ability is air swimming. This does not make for a useful gimmick. It's cool, but it's pretty hard to make a moveset out of a single move. However, I think Toad had some kind of unique jump style in SMB2 USA? I keep forgetting he's the weakest jumper, but still. ...Which kind of becomes a fun hindsight joke since Captain Toad takes that gimmick even further.

I don’t know. Super Mario Bros. 2 mechanics like the Super Jump, Turnips, and Flying Carpet definitely make me think of Toad. Like I mentioned, that game was his and Peach’s first playable role and they all had unique properties in that game. Leaning into that game as a whole would at least make his moveset feel faithful to me. You could even get a bit crazy with this idea if you want like incorporating a digging mechanic (likely too much work) or a move where he picks up a key and causes the cursed mask to fly around the screen. Maybe I’m just old but the first thing that always sticks in my mind when I hear “playable Toad” is SMB2.

Tons of existing characters didn’t really have much to work with either before their inclusion in Smash. Captain Falcon, Fox, Peach, Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant among many others had to get a bit creative since there wasn’t much inspiration for direct source material that was unique to that character.

 

[fogbadge]

The reality is... it is. It's a big detriment to him because Sakurai is having trouble envisioning something that makes Toad stand out from the other Mario options. This is why many got in before he could, because they had unique options. The only other ones were some kind of straight clone(no semi-clone was added for Super Mario yet).

that's pure speculation. we have no way of knowing what's going on in sakurai's head. need i remind you that peach's, mario's and to a certain extent bowser's movesets all have things they share with other character

It'd be cool if it wasn't, but that's now it works. Unless you just want him to be basically a model swap of another character, which is his only other current chance, since nothing separates him exclusively from Mario(ironically Mario having the FLUDD is an exclusive thing). With more and more characters coming up, he is looking for unique traits outright to help choose the characters. Look at every Super Mario character added after Brawl(as none were added in there officially speaking. And even if you want to include Wario and Diddy, they clearly had unique abilities related to their character that made them heavily stand out, including from their own games). The closest to an exception is somewhat Bowser Jr., as the moveset is the Clown Car. However, the only other plausible characters that could use it at that point were... the Koopalings. Thus, they shared a common theme and it worked out fine(and they barely made it). Rosalina had her own canon powers mind you, and while she didn't entirely use them, she did use abilities based upon her overall powers to create a cosmic-based moveset. Something other characters couldn't really do anyway. Come Ultimate, we got a near identical clone(is identical in practice, but has some slightly different parameters) in Daisy, and then a unique fighter in PP, who had moves that others couldn't do either. So at most only Rosalina among the Super Mario characters is somewhat odd.

again you're not looking at the whole roster. what did robin have that separated them from other FE characters? whatever it was isn't in smash. same for inceneroar, not the only starter, not the only wrestler, not the only dark fire type the only unique thing he had was darkest lariat. in fact this whole scenario applies to isabelle as well, she had nothing unique from any of the other AC characters and everything she does that isn't shared with the villager is still stuff that the villager, or any AC character, could have used. palutena's moveset is stuff that pit uses. sonic's moveset is largely based on his spin dash a move many characters share. sora's moves can be used by many a KH protag. it goes on sharing a moveset with someone else does not matter.

Toad doesn't even have something that, say, he and one other character has. Those sports, party, and kart abilities are quite clearly not "his" alone. Those Mario power-ups are not "his" alone. They are very cool ideas, but it doesn't scream Toad, but general Mario character at the end, since you can put that on many character options. But as I said, there's bound to be something that he's done that others haven't. There's like no one plausible in Wario's Woods, that he stars in, with the only other character being Wario, but he's not even treated strictly as Super Mario. It might be a decent starting point too, albeit, Puzzle stuff like that isn't exactly what I'd call a stand out for him, either way. Especially with stuff like Dr. Mario around, and more loosely Yoshi's Cookie.

that's not true. as gengar keeps point out toad has been shown to be fast and strong at different points. his has the ability to summon spores. and as i said before there are characters on the roster this applies to. robin's moves aren't their alone, nor issabelle's nor palutena. the roster disproves this line of thinking

This may also relate to part of why Waluigi's not in.

good

 

[Gengar84]

that's pure speculation. we have no way of knowing what's going on in sakurai's head. need i remind you that peach's, mario's and to a certain extent bowser's movesets all have things they share with other character



again you're not looking at the whole roster. what did robin have that separated them from other FE characters? whatever it was isn't in smash. same for inceneroar, not the only starter, not the only wrestler, not the only dark fire type the only unique thing he had was darkest lariat. in fact this whole scenario applies to isabelle as well, she had nothing unique from any of the other AC characters and everything she does that isn't shared with the villager is still stuff that the villager, or any AC character, could have used. palutena's moveset is stuff that pit uses. sonic's moveset is largely based on his spin dash a move many characters share. sora's moves can be used by many a KH protag. it goes on sharing a moveset with someone else does not matter.



that's not true. as gengar keeps point out toad has been shown to be fast and strong at different points. his has the ability to summon spores. and as i said before there are characters on the roster this applies to. robin's moves aren't their alone, nor issabelle's nor palutena. the roster disproves this line of thinking



good

You could even borrow an idea from Pokémon for Toad’s spore mechanic in Effect Spore (with a new name, of course). This could function similarly to a counter, but rather than dealing damage it could inflict a random status effect on the opponent like poison, sleep, or stun.

Maybe fill out the rest of his moveset that doesn’t have any direct source material to go on by playing up the idea that he’s a mushroom person.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Here's some problems with what you're saying;

A game does not matter. The franchise and licensing does and only that does. Halo has appeared on a Nintendo console, and I'd like to note it was going to get a DS game at one point, but was scrapped. This already shows that Nintendo had interest in Halo showing up on their consoles beforehand. So the matter of whether it got a full game is irrelevant in the end. In fact, that might be the only thing Microsoft didn't want to do. But they blatantly don't care if Halo is shown in crossovers(and being Minecraft is among the biggest franchises in the world, up there with Pac-Man, Sonic, and Super Mario? Yeah, it's a pretty damn big deal). Basically? The reason I don't consider a "full game" to matter is because it doesn't. That has nothing to do with why a character is chosen in any way. There's just way more details to that, and even then, we're talking about what is equivalent to a minor appearance in Smash somehow not happening cause... it didn't have a straight game(despite, as I noted, them intending to have a straight game and having what is a very big appearance in another, identical in practice to the Character Packs in Smash(especially in Ultimate).

You can't just say a game does not matter and not give a reason why. If you can point any character in Smash that only had skins and textures or any kind of appearance in another series before they appeared in Smash, then maybe you'd be on to something. But at this point, that hasn't happened yet. In fact, somebody (I forgot who it was) said that if you want Dante in Smash, wait until his game is released on a Nintendo console first. Keep in mind, Dante himself had already appeared on Nintendo consoles through the Project X Zone games, yet this person was saying until his game was released. Surely, his game was released and what happened after that? Representation in Smash Ultimate.

Next, let's actually look at Cloud. What at most mattered was he "appeared" on a Nintendo console(we know this particular criteria is hardly ironclad, but that's not the point). He appeared in an unimportant spin-off game, and even his characterization is specifically based upon Dissidia, a PlayStation Exclusive overall. In other words, his "Nintendo" stuff was not held up as importance.

Joker is the next one. In no way was PQ2 actually important to Joker's own implementation, and may have little to do with him getting in. The most we would get is that Atlus was making a game he's in that'll release within Smash's timeframe, meaning that he's a current character being used, which means he's far easier to add than any other Persona protagonist. He's an active character. The game's release date would have no bearing on why Joker got in. He was already chosen anyway. His gameplay was notably delayed because of how hard he was to implement, but was shown off at a realistic time anyway to get the ball rolling. But the main thing is, even if said appearance mattered, obviously he was chosen before said appearance would exist. In the end, a spin-off, a very minor game, is treated like a pretty important thing.

You can't say this for sure. The fact that Sakurai mentioned a character's appearance on a Nintendo console prior to appearing Smash shows that it is indeed an important thing to him, otherwise, he wouldn't have brought it up at all or would have just straight up said it wouldn't have mattered. Just because Smash doesn't feature any content from those games doesn't mean it's not important.

So what makes Minecraft's Halo Mash-Up Pack so completely unimportant? Nothing. Because it's an important part of Nintendo and Microsoft's history with each other and proved how much they're willing to collaborate. I can't find clear information on some other previously Nintendo series, namely Rareware, and when it got some skins(though that's all they got). But that's due to oddly written information. For the record, I took a lot of time to scour each detail to make sure everything was correct. That said, it's also why I don't take your statements at face value and only am taking actual evidential points into account.

You're not telling me anything important here. All you're saying that it's licensed and therefore, it's not minor but that's not the way it works. It still depends how they're actually presented in the game. Look at Terry and all the SNK content he comes with, then look at Cuphead, then look at River City. All of these are licensed work but that doesn't mean none of them are minor. One has much less than the others.

Also, the problem with what you're saying is that you're using this as some sort of argument for Halo but if anything, you're actually arguing for Minecraft here. It's that game that shows the history between Nintendo and Microsoft, which makes Steve's appearance in Smash Ultimate much more sense than Halo. So you got Minecraft, a series with Nintendo content (specifically Mario content), then you got Banjo & Kazooie, characters who started on Nintendo consoles and, of course, were former Nintendo stars themselves, compared to Halo, which...just got skins and textures in a different game but no actual games on any Nintendo consoles. Like you said, one of them got cancelled, so that didn't help. The former two series has that Nintendo connection that the latter doesn't, so that's why I say I'm not surprised. If you're surprised, okay that's you but I'm not.

Anyway, I'm not going to go on beyond this. You clearly don't want to look over the bigger data(as I've provided it many times, and you did kind of dismiss a lot of said data, so I can't come to any other conclusion here), and that's fine. I work my points based upon logic and evidence shown. Thus, I don't find strict biases nor opinions alone to provide a very strong point. When evidence shows otherwise, I'm going to go towards that. That doesn't mean said evidence always leads to the correct conclusion, but I don't find gut feelings useful either way as a debate tool. This isn't a "could be cool" situation either way. In both cases, the issue relies on actual technical data to explain the situations. If data can't back up your point, it's not strong evidence to consider it a likely situation. As you aren't providing any, I can't really consider your point to be that strong. And yes, for the record, I think it'd have been great if we got Forgotten Land content, but I took the time to look into why it couldn't have, and then I did realize that all the 1st party stuff is from games being developed at the right time for it... which the game didn't. Thus, the release date was, well, proven to mean little alone(and it has some meaning, but only in the context of why it released late). That should make some clear sense, I hope. And while I know it's a little annoying to reiterate a point or two, it's probably a good idea to take each singular point into account as long as it's not a strict repeat when replying. It's why I make sure to cover every base, not, well, giving shorter bits. But for a tl;dr version of a point or two.

Well, your "data" was completely irrelevant, so if I dismissed it, then that was why. I wasn't talking about the development. What I was talking was if the game had been a 2017 Switch title like the other two games I mentioned and that should have been easily understandable based on what was already shown in Smash. It didn't require any kind of deep research or info digging. But rather than just leaving at that, it felt almost like you were trying to use that to challenge me on a subject I wasn't talking about to show off your "logic" and "evidence" (which is more like fancy guess work). I just find that very strange and totally unnecessary.

 

[Gengar84]

Personally, I’m just going to keep an open mind and not write any character off. Just because Sakurai felt one way about Ultimate doesn’t mean he can’t change his stance for future games. I think if a character has enough fan support, they’re not going to disqualify them just because they didn’t appear in an obscure spinoff game on a Nintendo console. I believe top priority is making as many people excited as possible, which would then translate to potentially better sales.

That doesn’t mean Nintendo presence should go completely ignored either. I just think it’s another thing to balance and consider when choosing the roster.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Cloud was a very special case though, he doesn't have much connection to Nintendo but he was a hugely popular request ever since, well, Snake made it in and third party characters where eligible. I don't think there are that many characters as Cloud left not already included in Smash, without a strong connection to Nintendo I mean. It's pretty apparent which characters are the most popular requested now.

Also that one question about who's more popular between Isaac, Waluigi and Bandana Dee... I think Isaac wins this, but out of the three, Bandana Dee seems the most likely, whilst I feel Waluigi is probably the most publicly known character of the three. Waluigi has lots of characters to compete with though, he's a Mario character after all. Bandana Dee not so much, and Isaac not at all, unless they wanna be odd and add Matthew or Felix instead, which would basically result in the same outcome moveset wise anyway. Out of the three, I think Isaac is easily the most requested and popular, doesn't mean he's the likeliest unfortunately.