So we both seem to agree Geno's not getting in directly to promote the remake. But in that case the remake is probably just about as many "points" as appearances in any of the other Mario spinoff games. And in that department Geno is still severely outclassed.
It's probably worth more, if Geno retains his prominent role in that game, since at least that one would be original.
This is both a spin-off and a remake. There are more ideal categories to be in, Smash-wise. But Geno not being in a spin-off is very unlikely.
Though if it's an original spin-off but Geno has a very minor role, this one is probably worth more.
So then it's just how much weight is given to his popularity, but the Mario universe has other very popular characters, and even some slightly less popular ones that have more appearances and general recognition than Geno. Note that I didn't say the remake is a net zero for Geno, but I do think that it is, on its own, not going to be enough (even if we got two Mario newcomers).
Well Geno isn't getting in for being generally popular, because he isn't generally popular. He'd get in as a fanbase choice, which limits his spots, but also stands him in better stead than the other Mario characters for that route.
The only other one that could potentially get in that way is Waluigi, but I don't think he will, because he can get in normally as just a generally popular, currently active character. Like how Inkling could've gotten in via the fanbase, but just got in based on general merit.
If Golden Sun got a remake? Well, it depends. If that remake is just a one-off thing and Nintendo knows that Camelot is just going to go back into perpetual Mario sports mode afterward, then it probably won't be a real impetus to put Isaac in. If said remake is a legitimate testing of the waters for a potential GS4 later on (potentially even with some Mario sports in between), then it's a dramatically different situation. I should add that I personally think GS4 straightaway would be more likely to happen than a remake anyway, but that's a different conversation.
If Nintendo is bringing back a dormant IP with a remake, they're testing the waters.
But also, if Sakurai is choosing the characters, I don't think he's looking at the future, I think he's looking at the current and the past. I mean, Sakurai explicitly said "I'm not doing more Kid Icarus" and then jammed 4 full of KI content. Itoi was straight up like "Mother is done" and Sakurai nevertheless added Lucas. Since Sakurai decided to add K. Rool eight years ago, there's been a single port of a DK game that didn't have K. Rool in it.
If Nintendo sanctioned a GS remake they had the intention to not pursue, and were also the ones choosing the characters, then yeah, it may not help Isaac. But that combination of events is not a likely scenario. Nintendo doesn't usually choose the non-promo first-parties. As far as we know.
But it's not like the promotional ones are particularly future-oriented either. The series may continue, but they usually choose one-off characters with the intent to drive people to one specific, current game.
I guess I hadn't thought, in the case of Geno, if this SMRPG remake could be testing the waters for future Square-developed Mario RPGs featuring most of the same cast as the original. But that doesn't seem too likely, or at the very least we don't really have anything to suggest it's the case.
The future state of third-party characters isn't really Nintendo's concern when selecting fighters.
Due to demand, they added Mega Man, Simon, Banjo and brought Snake back. How are those series going?
Also, not that I believe it to be important in Geno's current chance, but:
This was an interview he had with IGN last year, saying he wants to make SMRPG2 his last game before he retires. Clearly, he knew about the remake, so maybe he said this to gauge interest? https://www.ign.com/articles/super-mario-rpg-director-wants-to-make-a-sequel-and-retire "So, in my...
famiboards.com
You never know.
If we're comparing them directly, then Isaac has the advantages of representing a brand new franchise and being the primary choice for that franchise. If you are the sort to care about exit polls then Isaac probably also did better globally on the ballot. And if there are no other plans for Geno beyond the SMRPG remake, then we haven't exactly fixed the "has no clear future" issue.
Here's my question to you. Do you think Geno is considered to have a better chance than Isaac right now?
And would that change if Isaac was the one who had received the remake, and Geno hadn't?
That's my point. It's not Geno vs. Isaac. It's the benefit of these kind of characters having a new release, even if that release is a remake.
I tend to hate to play the uniqueness card because it's generally highly subjective, but if we were to go there then Isaac is likelier to have the more compelling movepool I am inclined to think.
That's really not a relevant factor. This isn't Sakurai trying to figure out how to add another Marth derivative or choosing between two pre-release Pokemon.
Then again, the whole thing is further complicated by the licensing for Geno. Maybe he wouldn't even be in direct competition with other Mario reps or the likes of Isaac in filling a "hardcore fan pick" slot. But in that case (i.e. the case that he's competing for a dedicated third party slot rather than a Mario newcomer slot or a first party fan pick slot or a legacy slot), he's going up against other Square and/or third party picks, newcomers and potentially also vets, which puts him back in the boat of being simply outclassed. And being a Mario rep could still end up hurting him since he might seem a less novel/diverse pick than whoever else might be considered for that slot. In any case taking up licensing budget and negotiation efforts is a burden he will have to take to whichever slot he's competing for.
Geno is going to go up for the third-party fanbase choice spot. Those spots are very limited. Especially so because I don't think he'd get the one(s) in base because of Square, who I think prefers being DLC.
He may get it, but it's stiff competition. And he has to contend with the Square vets as well in terms of priority within the company, should there be cuts. If we get another Square newcomer, or to a degree of lesser but possible likelihood, enough other Mario newcomers, that could also affect his chances.
He's not necessarily outclassed in terms of fanbase demand, which is how he'd get in, it just depends if his negative qualities offset that popularity too much. In the past, they have. Now, with this game, there are fewer of them. He's not dead, he's less of a one-off (though he still kind of is), but he remains a very minor character compared to other third-parties, he remains a spin-off character, and, although there are some benefits to it, overall he remains impeded by being a third-party, especially one from a company like Square.
