Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[dream1ng]

Smash really has some predictable patterns in its character selections but I feel like every fan prediction list boils it down to "fan favorites since Smash 4" and "obligatory shill picks" when it comes to likeliness which showed itself to be an oversimplification in the past.

I mean it's sound reasoning for gauging likelihood, because the dark horses don't make sense to put in the bracket for best chances. I think calling them "likely" is the problem, and in itself an exaggeration for even most of the top choices, but in comparison, they are the likely-est.

Like, this time around, putting most of the third-parties we got in the highest echelon for perceived likelihood wouldn't have been accurate, even though that's who we got. Meanwhile choices like Ryu Hayabusa / Monster Hunter / RE character (who should all be somewhere on that chart btw) would make sense to rank fairly highly, given their resumes, despite not receiving them.

I don't think we're under any illusions that we get far more wrong than right. But the best we can really do is anticipate the few routes or traits we do know can lead to inclusion.

So there'a a rumor that Skylanders is getting a remaster collection. I wanna believe it, but apparently it came from 4chan, so... yeah.

Although, if by some miracle Spyro came to Smash, do you guys think he'd come with Skylanders content?

No he'd come with Spyro content.

And I don't think they're bringing back toys to life any time soon. The production costs are way too high and the genre is, if not dead, then fast ****ing asleep.

 

[chocolatejr9]

No he'd come with Spyro content.

And I don't think they're bringing back toys to life any time soon. The production costs are way too high and the genre is, if not dead, then fast ****ing asleep.

Actually, the rumor suggested they'd be removing the toys to life element, but considering that was Skylanders' main selling point, that's another reason to doubt it.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Like, this time around, putting most of the third-parties we got in the highest echelon for perceived likelihood wouldn't have been accurate, even though that's who we got. Meanwhile choices like Ryu Hayabusa / Monster Hunter / RE character (who should all be somewhere on that chart btw) would make sense to rank fairly highly, given their resumes, despite not receiving them.

Oh yeah I'd place em in likely for sure, like I said I definitely forgot a few while making the chart

 

[PeridotGX]

So there'a a rumor that Skylanders is getting a remaster collection. I wanna believe it, but apparently it came from 4chan, so... yeah.

Although, if by some miracle Spyro came to Smash, do you guys think he'd come with Skylanders content?

I wouldn't expect anything but extremely small nods, due to how controversial the games are (especially their portrayal of Spyro). I think the best analouge is the handling of Nuts and Bolts content in Smash, or the lack thereof (I think it's just an idle animation). I enjoyed Skylanders as a kid but that's how it goes.

 

[HyperSomari64]

I think the best analouge is the handling of Nuts and Bolts content in Smash, or the lack thereof (I think it's just an idle animation).

Or Sonic Boom representation.

 

[Quillion]

The way Pokémon are selected is super boring and lame lol.

Same goes with Fire Emblem, and I fear it's going to happen with Xenoblade.

It's what you get when these "rotating cast" franchises focus only on the protagonists.

 

[fogbadge]

i think something we all need to remember going forward is that sakurai is now semi-retired. and he said he did this cause he couldn't carry working the way he has been. so that means the next smash game will not have him in the same capacity as before. even if he is still a director the whole idea of cutting back on his work means he'll be leaving it to other people plenty of time as well. and surely this will come to affect the roster choices as well? what i'm saying is i don't think patterns of past games are going to really matter going forward as the process of how smash is run is going to take a significant change.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I wouldn't expect anything but extremely small nods, due to how controversial the games are (especially their portrayal of Spyro). I think the best analouge is the handling of Nuts and Bolts content in Smash, or the lack thereof (I think it's just an idle animation). I enjoyed Skylanders as a kid but that's how it goes.

Actually, I think Banjo's house is also designed after N&B, but I get your point.

 

[Wonder Smash]

He is more likely, even with his very limited Nintendo presence, because Japan cripples Scorpion's chances.

Scorpion is not an unknown in Japan and with an actual presence on Nintendo console, he's far more likely than Master Chief. In fact, if Chief was more likely, he probably would have gotten in before Banjo.

 

[HyperSomari64]

For this same reason, the representation of StarTropics and Geist got robbed. Simply because both were never distributed in Japan.

 

[dream1ng]

Scorpion is not an unknown in Japan and with an actual presence on Nintendo console, he's far more likely than Master Chief. In fact, if Chief was more likely, he probably would have gotten in before Banjo.

Scorpion has next to no releases in Japan, that's a monumental hindrance. I believe there were only two releases there, both of which bombed hard, and the most recent was still over 25 years ago. It's very close to natively nonexistent there. Master Chief only has a comparable hindrance if 1) you actually do need an appearance on a Nintendo system to be eligible for Smash, and 2) skins don't count.

While both of those are ambiguous and speculative (which I'm going to guess you'll treat as if they aren't, though they are), we know Smash does genuinely avoid characters of regional exclusion, so any character in Scorpion's position, whether it's the east or the west failing to receive nearly every title in the series, is going to have a very very steep climb to inclusion.

And "if Chief was more likely than Scorpion he would've gotten in before Banjo" makes no sense. Even if "if Chief was more likely than Banjo he would've gotten in before Banjo" isn't a sure thing.

Chief doesn't even need to be part of this equation. Scorpion is just incredibly unlikely because of the state of MK in Japan.

 

[Ivander]

Scorpion has next to no releases in Japan, that's a monumental hindrance. I believe there were only two releases there, both of which bombed hard, and the most recent was still over 25 years ago. It's very close to natively nonexistent there.

Just because it's been banned in Japan doesn't mean it's non-existent there. Dead Space is banned in Japan and yet it's a popular series in Japan, as all of the games have been 100% fan-translated into Japanese, something that should be impossible for unreleased games, let alone banned games, without the help of a large fanbase. Isaac Clarke's helmet was also made into an emoticon in Japan.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Just because it's been banned in Japan doesn't mean it's non-existent there. Dead Space is banned in Japan and yet it's a popular series in Japan, as all of the games have been 100% fan-translated into Japanese, something that should be impossible for unreleased games, let alone banned games, without the help of a large fanbase. Isaac Clarke's helmet was also made into an emoticon in Japan.

Really? Huh, I thought that sort of thing was only in the US...

 

[fogbadge]

Really? Huh, I thought that sort of thing was only in the US...

and the uk

 

[HyperSomari64]

Lies!!
The first two MK and vanilla MK3 made a cameo in an anime called "Hi-Score Girl!!".

 

[Batkelley]

Just because it's been banned in Japan doesn't mean it's non-existent there. Dead Space is banned in Japan and yet it's a popular series in Japan, as all of the games have been 100% fan-translated into Japanese, something that should be impossible for unreleased games without the help of a large fanbase. Isaac Clarke's helmet was also made into an emoticon in Japan.

True, but even if it does have a lot of fans there, it's hard to imagine Nintendo would want one of their own games to include content from a franchise which is essentially banned from having an official release in their own country.

And while you could say the same thing about a franchise without any presence on a Nintendo console, I don't think they would consider that to be as big of an issue as something as controversial Mortal Kombat is in Japan.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Scorpion actually got more than you think. The first two Mortal Kombat games were fully released there. That's quite a lot in itself, as the first two were highly influential. He wasn't even in vanilla Mortal Kombat 3, which is when they couldn't be sold under normal conditions. I forget how it was in Japan, but banned is more "can't properly sell them regularly", but you still will see people bootleg or whatever.

Either way, while he still had influence in Japan and is iconic there, it's more that the games can't be sold by their own laws that hurts Scorpion. Representing MK in Smash is much more difficult when the advertising effect is a bad thing overall.

That's something Halo already instantly has over Mortal Kombat. Coupled with the franchise still having some kind of Nintendo appearance, while already eliminates the fanrule of "must appear on a Nintendo console first"(FYI, it was more of a case that it was beneficial to getting said character. Re-licensing is usually easier than the first time ever, but that's due to prior working together).

 

[chocolatejr9]

Lies!!
The first two MK and vanilla MK3 made a cameo in an anime called "Hi-Score Girl!!".

That's... not gonna change anything...

 

[dream1ng]

Just because it's been banned in Japan doesn't mean it's non-existent there. Dead Space is banned in Japan and yet it's a popular series in Japan, as all of the games have been 100% fan-translated into Japanese, something that should be impossible for unreleased games, let alone banned games, without the help of a large fanbase. Isaac Clarke's helmet was also made into an emoticon in Japan.

Ok, first of all, an internet community is not indication or accurate correlation of mass presence or being well known generally.

Second, fan translations are not going to matter much if at all to Nintendo, those don't count as official, which is going to be pertinent for Smash. Nintendo themselves localized Takamaru's game and that still seemingly hasn't been enough to count for Smash despite Sakurai saying he needed a western presence, or something to that effect. Unofficial translations? Forget about it.

Third, Dead Space and Mortal Kombat are different series. If one is notable, that has no inherent bearing on the other.

Fourth, why would it be impossible to translate a game, even a banned game? It's not like they confiscate imported games in Japan, they just don't sell a localized version. You can get them at specialty shops, but that's not a substantial presence at all.

Fifth, a game having a translation isn't an indication of its fanbase size, past somebody caring enough to translate it. Live-A-Live, Bahamut Lagoon and of course Mother 3 have translations, but so do games like Alcahest, Brandish 2, and Albert Odyssey. You heard of those games? Because most people, most gamers outside Japan haven't. I don't even know if they're that notable in Japan.

Yours is honestly a better argument for Dead Space than Mortal Kombat. But even then, with an official presence in a country either so tiny or not there at all, you're paddling against the current. Though in this case, Isaac Clarke's chances were never really considered anyway.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Scorpion has next to no releases in Japan, that's a monumental hindrance. I believe there were only two releases there, both of which bombed hard, and the most recent was still over 25 years ago. It's very close to natively nonexistent there. Master Chief only has a comparable hindrance if 1) you actually do need an appearance on a Nintendo system to be eligible for Smash, and 2) skins don't count.

While both of those are ambiguous and speculative (which I'm going to guess you'll treat as if they aren't, though they are), we know Smash does genuinely avoid characters of regional exclusion, so any character in Scorpion's position, whether it's the east or the west failing to receive nearly every title in the series, is going to have a very very steep climb to inclusion.

And "if Chief was more likely than Scorpion he would've gotten in before Banjo" makes no sense. Even if "if Chief was more likely than Banjo he would've gotten in before Banjo" isn't a sure thing.

Chief doesn't even need to be part of this equation. Scorpion is just incredibly unlikely because of the state of MK in Japan.

Whether he has "next to no releases in Japan" or not, the fact remains that MK is an immensely famous series that even the Japanese fans are aware of. Therefore, they obviously do know about Scorpion, a character that, let's not forget, even appeared in the first Injustice game, which was actually released in Japan. So he does have some exposure to the Japanese fanbase. Like I said, he's not an unknown to that part of the world.

Also, seeing how Chief is pretty much Microsoft's mascot with Halo being such a hugely successful series, saying Chief would have likely been in before Banjo makes complete sense. For that to not only not happen but also miss out completely on Ultimate despite Microsoft's involvement shows that maybe his chances aren't as high as you make them out to be.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Also, seeing how Chief is pretty much Microsoft's mascot with Halo being such a hugely successful series, saying Chief would have likely been in before Banjo makes complete sense. For that to not only not happen but also miss out completely on Ultimate despite Microsoft's involvement shows that maybe his chances aren't as high as you make them out to be.

TBF, Banjo had a LOT more going for him than Master Chief. Even Phil Spencer himself wanted Banjo in Smash, that's how popular he was. Plus the whole "honorary Nintendo character" thing he had...

 

[Wonder Smash]

TBF, Banjo had a LOT more going for him than Master Chief. Even Phil Spencer himself wanted Banjo in Smash, that's how popular he was. Plus the whole "honorary Nintendo character" thing he had...

I'm not doubting that Banjo would have still gotten in but Master Chief is like Microsoft's golden child. Halo is pretty much their flagship series, so pushing for a character like that wouldn't be a surprise. If you look at the other third party companies in Smash, mascots or any characters that were the closest things to it were always the first ones revealed. Banjo may be a popular pick but everybody knows that he's not the mascot of his company and neither is Steve. But at the same time, they, along with the other third-party characters in the game, have that Nintendo connection that the mascot of their own company doesn't have.

 

[dream1ng]

Whether he has "next to no releases in Japan" or not, the fact remains that MK is an immensely famous series that even the Japanese fans are aware of. Therefore, they obviously do know about Scorpion that, let's not forget, even appeared in as a guest character in Injustice, a game that was actually was released in Japan. So he does have some exposure to the Japanese fanbase. Like I said, he's not an unknown to that part of the world.

You think Injustice sold well in Japan? I don't. Let alone the DLC.

And sure, Scorpion was in it. Sakura Shinguji is in Project X Zone, and that came to the west and was actually sort of successful, unlike Injustice in Japan, which didn't get its sequel released there. And some people here know what Sakura Wars is like some people in Japan know what Mortal Kombat is.

But the series barely exists in the west. At least it had a recent worldwide release, though not a successful one. But it's almost entirely Japanese, with the little that makes it outside Japan barely making waves. Sakura's not going to get in as playable any time soon. And neither is Scorpion.

The thing is, one of the reasons these characters are so hindered is because we don't need to choose a character who either barely exists in the west or barely exists in Japan. There are still plenty who are actually popular in both. And look at the third-party roster. That's who we get, almost every time. And then if we do get one with lopsided popularity, there are still choices that actually get regular releases worldwide.

Choices like Scorpion are anathema to Smash selection, at least so far, where being of global appeal seems a high value for third-parties, and being heavily exclusive is seen as a downside. Explicitly so, this isn't simply theorizing.

Also, seeing how Chief is pretty much Microsoft's mascot with Halo being such a hugely successful series, saying Chief would have likely been in before Banjo makes complete sense. For that to not only not happen but also miss out completely on Ultimate despite Microsoft's involvement shows that maybe his chances aren't as high as you make them out to be.

Orrrrr.... sometimes they go for big series, sometimes they go for demand. Banjo was because of the ballot.

Should we pack up on Dante, Monster Hunter and a RE character because we got Mega Man? I mean, the former ones are bigger. MM was more popular.

 

[Wonder Smash]

You think Injustice sold well in Japan? I don't. Let alone the DLC.

So what if you think that?

And sure, Scorpion was in it. Sakura Shinguji is in Project X Zone, and that came to the west and was actually sort of successful, unlike Injustice in Japan, which didn't get its sequel released there. And some people here know what Sakura Wars is like some people in Japan know what Mortal Kombat is.

But the series barely exists in the west. At least it had a recent worldwide release, though not a successful one. But it's almost entirely Japanese, with the little that makes it outside Japan barely making waves. Sakura's not going to get in as playable any time soon. And neither is Scorpion.

The thing is, one of the reasons these characters are so hindered is because we don't need to choose a character who either barely exists in the west or barely exists in Japan. There are still plenty who are actually popular in both. And look at the third-party roster. That's who we get, almost every time. And then if we do get one with lopsided popularity, there are still choices that actually get regular releases worldwide.

Choices like Scorpion are anathema to Smash selection, at least so far, where being of global appeal seems a high value for third-parties, and being heavily exclusive is seen as a downside. Explicitly so, this isn't simply theorizing.

This still doesn't change the fact that Mortal Kombat is still a very famous series that fans recognize outside of the US, that even includes Japan. All you go by is sells and how successful it is but Sakurai never said that the game has to be a huge success in Japan, nor did he say that the game has been consistently released there either.

It is true that Sakurai is against region exclusive characters but Scorpion is not technically region exclusive. That applies to characters like Takamaru and Marth and Roy (prior to their games being localized) and that's because their games were never released outside of Japan. Only the Japanese fanbase knew they even existed, so obviously Sakurai was hesitant on adding them. They were truly unknown outside of Japan. Mortal Kombat? Not only has that been released in Japan but heck, it's friggin Mortal Kombat. Who doesn't know about that series?

Orrrrr.... sometimes they go for big series, sometimes they go for demand. Banjo was because of the ballot.

Should we pack up on Dante, Monster Hunter and a RE character because we got Mega Man? I mean, the former ones are bigger. MM was more popular.

Mega Man is also big enough to be considered a mascot for his company whereas Banjo...

Also, what do you mean "pack up"?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

TBF, Banjo had a LOT more going for him than Master Chief. Even Phil Spencer himself wanted Banjo in Smash, that's how popular he was. Plus the whole "honorary Nintendo character" thing he had...

Yep. The ballot was the kicker. Banjo-Kazooie were very popular while being on Nintendo itself, which helped a lot in the context of being wanted in Smash Bros. Not just good games, but on just the right system. And with Smash being by default a Nintendo Crossover(though has become a gaming crossover now), you get an instantly easy to ask for option. It doesn't mean Microsoft would've instantly said yes, but part of what also helped is that Microsoft and Nintendo were buddy-buddy with their dealings with Minecraft. This relationship really made it easy to negotiate for the Bear and Bird Duo.

So it had a lot going for them, honestly. They didn't need to be Microsoft's mascot. They just had to have a lot of other stuff going for them too. Minecraft also had a lot going for it in a different way, making it easy to see why it got in.

We're just missing the last important piece of the most notable Microsoft-owned franchises. And if the "no appearances on a Nintendo console" is being taken seriously, that problem sailed a long time ago. Cameos always counted. It's the same point to why having a game on said console mattered. "We were able to license said franchise/characters on our console, so it's easier to do again." That's all it amounted to. Cloud's minor game is part of why Sakurai was so easy to go with it, but his interview about it even suggests it wasn't all that much on his mind too(and even then, it would've only mattered if SE wasn't willing to play ball. Why would he choose someone else over a minor thing? The character and their merit comes first. Nintendo and SE of course may not play ball necessarily, but it's not just lacking a single appearance).

There's always cases to consider that sometimes licensing does not go like you think it would. Fallouts happen, etc). But either way, Chief's only block was removed ages ago. Though I get why, with such a big franchise, a few spirits isn't enough for them. They want the full thing. That makes sense. I mean, it's the same thing with Kingdom Hearts. It could've gotten a Mii Costume or Spirits only without issues, but that... might be too little to get for the price paid. And to be fair, Sora only made it cause Sakurai found the right person and the right time. Who knows if we'd have 12 DLC characters if that didn't work out, heh.

 

[Stratos]

I read something that Mortal Kombat is banned in Japan, but that there are still fans who admire Scorpion that's amazing.

 

[SPEN18]

Reminder that baseline eligibility is only the first hoop to jump through. Even if we were to just assume Chief has that down (in spite of it being the subject of recent debate), I think a lot of Chief fans wrongly assume that Chief being a big character to Microsoft or to gaming in general automatically makes him an attractive choice to Nintendo. It doesn't quite work that way; the character has to hold appeal with Nintendo and their audience specifically, or at least the potential to command that appeal if included, and Chief has markedly less of that than Steve, Banjo, or a host of other candidates do IMO.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I read something that Mortal Kombat is banned in Japan, but that there are still fans who admire Scorpion that's amazing.

I heard about that too and if that is true, then this kind of makes the whole "banned in Japan" argument irrelevant for Scorpion.

 

[Batkelley]

I heard about that too and if that is true, then this kind of makes the whole "banned in Japan" argument irrelevant for Scorpion.

Not exactly, like I mentioned before, I don't think Nintendo would want a character from a banned franchise in their own game, no matter how popular he might be.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Reminder that baseline eligibility is only the first hoop to jump through. Even if we were to just assume Chief has that down (in spite of it being the subject of recent debate), I think a lot of Chief fans wrongly assume that Chief being a big character to Microsoft or to gaming in general automatically makes him an attractive choice to Nintendo. It doesn't quite work that way; the character has to hold appeal with Nintendo and their audience specifically, or at least the potential to command that appeal if included, and Chief has markedly less of that than Steve, Banjo, or a host of other candidates do IMO.

While I think Cheif is major enough that he does have that appeal for Nintendo fans... I think your main point is sound.

Generally the franchises we get in Smash are not very violent or horrific. Innuendo, non gory violence and scary content is allowed, but franchises that focus on that stuff seem to be intentionally avoided. Perhaps its because its deemed something that their fanbase doesn't want.

The only exceptions seem to be franchises they own some rights to, like Bayonetta, Fatal Frame and Eternal Darkness.

Perhaps third party franchises (that Nintendo doesn't collaborate with) are avoided if deemed too violent, sexual or scary. We just don't know where the line is drawn.

Except Mai Shiranui lmao

 

[Wonder Smash]

Not exactly, like I mentioned before, I don't think Nintendo would want a character from a banned franchise in their own game, no matter how popular he might be.

Popularity is overall the more important thing and that's something Nintendo would obviously take note of. Besides, it's not like Mortal Kombat has never been released in Japan before.

 

[Sucumbio]

I'd love Scorpion but I don't see it happening. With MK having been banned in several markets over the years and with MK11 still banned in Japan, it seems to me a contrary position for Nintendo to put them in their family friendly crossover.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I'd love Scorpion but I don't see it happening. With MK having been banned in several markets over the years and with MK11 still banned in Japan, it seems to me a contrary position for Nintendo to put them in their family friendly crossover.

So then what about Master Chief and his series having no appearances on Nintendo consoles?

 

[HyperSomari64]

So then what about Master Chief and his series having no appearances on Nintendo consoles?

(cough)Minecraft(cough)Fortnite(cough)

 

[CommanderZaktan]

Lies!!
The first two MK and vanilla MK3 made a cameo in an anime called "Hi-Score Girl!!".

I think the versions in Japan are censored. But they decided to not localize the series when 4 came out

 

[dream1ng]

So what if you think that?

So if the argument is knowledge of Scorpion, a game selling very poorly is of minimal benefit in that argument, especially when the character themselves is DLC, which only a fraction of the already install base buys.

For what it's worth, they didn't even localize MK vs DC, and that game was toned down to T.

This still doesn't change the fact that Mortal Kombat is still a very famous series that fans recognize outside of the US, that even includes Japan. All you go by is sells and how successful it is but Sakurai never said that the game has to be a huge success in Japan, nor did he say that the game has been consistently released there either.

First of all, Sakurai's words aren't the only way to observe how the roster takes shape. To disregard the commonalities between the third-parties on the roster, both in terms of what they share and what they lack, is being purposefully obtuse. Global appeal is a clear boon, with strong regionality a clear detriment. That's also one of the things that hurts Chief. And Slayer. And Rayman. Though they all at least have all their games release there.

Second, Sakurai has intimated exclusive characters are avoided by Smash. To cast that as a binary as "well, a release means they're not exclusive", while true, is disregarding why Smash avoids these characters. It's because they're not well known by a region. Showing up in bombs every two decades over there doesn't actually move the needle very much. Especially when there's competition that performs well all over.

It's basically a loophole that doesn't address the actual trait that hurts their chances. No, he's not exclusive. But he's very close to a character who would be, which is what the hindrance is.

It is true that Sakurai is against region exclusive characters but Scorpion is not technically region exclusive. That applies to characters like Takamaru and Marth and Roy (prior to their games being localized) and that's because their games were never released outside of Japan. Only the Japanese fanbase knew they even existed, so obviously Sakurai was hesitant on adding them. They were truly unknown outside of Japan. Mortal Kombat? Not only has that been released in Japan but heck, it's friggin Mortal Kombat. Who doesn't know about that series?

People who weren't exposed to those games, the marketing or the controversies that surround the series, probably.

Saying "Mortal Kombat must be known because it's Mortal Kombat" is kind of western-centric, isn't it? I'm sure people in Japan say "who doesn't know Doraemon?"... but outside Japan, a ****ton of people don't know Doraemon, and those games at least still get localized.

Knowing video games that are ultra-niche and mostly non-existent in your region, but are popular in another region is a very specified type of knowledge. We know it, because it's sort of pertinent to this discussion. But it's esoteric, and we're all well above average in terms of video game awareness.

Mega Man is also big enough to be considered a mascot for his company whereas Banjo...

Yeah but he didn't get in because he's a mascot, he got in because of demand on the Brawl poll, the same way Banjo got in due to demand on the ballot. Being a mascot is an incidental qualifier you're using to connect the dots, but it's not an actual factor here.

We don't always get the mascot first anyway. Jack Frost is Atlus' mascot, but we got Joker first.

Also, what do you mean "pack up"?

Like, give up on.

I heard about that too and if that is true, then this kind of makes the whole "banned in Japan" argument irrelevant for Scorpion.

"Scorpion has fans in Japan"
"How many?"
"I don't know"
"Where'd you hear it?"
"Don't remember, somebody on the internet said it"
"Well ****, the series might as well be a blockbuster there!"

I'm sure Scorpion does have some fans in Japan, like unlocalized RPGs have fans here. But this is still anecdotal as hell, completely nonexistent on detail, and feeding right into your confirmation bias. The source is basically: trust me, bro

 

[Stratos]

Too bad they canceled Smash Bros. Fighter Ballot, but on the other hand I think maybe they did it because there are so many video game characters that it would take a long time to count them and see who to put in future Super Smash Bros. games.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

(cough)Minecraft(cough)Fortnite(cough)

Funny thing is? The requirement is "this character having a Nintendo appearance on a console would be a courtesy". So even calling it a requirement is misleading. They do not need to be the 100% exact character. Cameos are appearances. As long as it's deliberately that character and not a straight reference to them, anyway. Which that's two times Master Chief has had Nintendo appearances in some way.

The reasoning doesn't check out with the requirement we got. Halo absolutely can get in. It hit the requirements hard. has for a while now. Of course, Halo having little presence in Japan absolutely hurts it. Nintendo however clearly had some interest in it before(as a Halo DS game was attempted to be negotiated for. It wasn't simply denied, but cancelled in the end), and clearly still does.

As long as Halo can be sold properly in Japan, it'll always have a leg up on Mortal Kombat in terms of Smash. That's inherently far more important in context, especially since Nintendo knows it advertises stuff. Coupled with both franchises having some kind of Nintendo appearance(thus, that doesn't really matter on which one is more likely purely by fan opinions), and ballot popularity only going so far(Master Chief wouldn't get as much because people still thought you needed an outright game on Nintendo, when you don't have to have an appearance is more accurate. It's just, you know, nice), you realize that the key factor between the two is what Nintendo of Japan would allow.

They don't have a problem with advertising Microsoft products. But they can't advertise something nobody can buy there. Mortal Kombat is extremely unlikely as long as it can't be sold properly in Japan. ...Halo wins instantly by not having any of these issues. In either case, Nintendo wouldn't have an issue with either company, but they also happen to have more experience working with Microsoft in Smash terms, so WB Games do kind of have a major disadvantage in that context too. Really, there's nothing very strong going against Halo showing up. The most to be said is that a minor appearance is unlikely due to the size of said franchise(much like the issue with Sora having only a costume was. Though as I said before, he was still lucky to get in).

 

[Ivander]

Ok, first of all, an internet community is not indication or accurate correlation of mass presence or being well known generally.

Second, fan translations are not going to matter much if at all to Nintendo, those don't count as official, which is going to be pertinent for Smash. Nintendo themselves localized Takamaru's game and that still seemingly hasn't been enough to count for Smash despite Sakurai saying he needed a western presence, or something to that effect. Unofficial translations? Forget about it.

Third, Dead Space and Mortal Kombat are different series. If one is notable, that has no inherent bearing on the other.

Fourth, why would it be impossible to translate a game, even a banned game? It's not like they confiscate imported games in Japan, they just don't sell a localized version. You can get them at specialty shops, but that's not a substantial presence at all.

Fifth, a game having a translation isn't an indication of its fanbase size, past somebody caring enough to translate it. Live-A-Live, Bahamut Lagoon and of course Mother 3 have translations, but so do games like Alcahest, Brandish 2, and Albert Odyssey. You heard of those games? Because most people, most gamers outside Japan haven't. I don't even know if they're that notable in Japan.

Yours is honestly a better argument for Dead Space than Mortal Kombat. But even then, with an official presence in a country either so tiny or not there at all, you're paddling against the current. Though in this case, Isaac Clarke's chances were never really considered anyway.

That wasn't my point. My point was that just because something doesn't have releases in a country, let alone official releases, doesn't mean the number of people who do know the series or it's popularity are next to non-existent. It's incredibly easy to default to that, but it's also shows ignorance since that's using the argument with assumption and not knowledge. Especially when it's not that easy to get said knowledge for research.
Simply going to a popular search engine and looking something up isn't going to give us exactly what we want to know or find. Besides working with the given definition, it also has to be available for access on the specific site and area, much like how some articles on Wikipedia have little text in some languages while they are plentiful in others.

What I was getting at was that just like Mortal Kombat's future games, Dead Space is also unavailable in Japan. But despite being banned there, it still has fanwikis with full translations of all of the Dead Space games. And translations are not frickin' easy by what I've heard from people who do fan translations. Not just for the difficulty of translating from Japanese to English, due to a lot of Japanese words often being used for multiple things, but because often, you need a lot of other people who are just as invested and think the effort is worth it. Something that would be next to impossible with a small fanbase.
Take it from someone who plays a game with a very small fanbase to the point where the Wiki for the game has only recently gotten a new administrator working on the stuff that hasn't been updated since March, despite the game getting 4-5 major updates since then. And it's been a few weeks since Lostbelt 7 for Fate/Grand Order in Japan and yet recently, it was mentioned by a large team of fan translators that only 44% has been translated. For Part 1.

I can't imagine English to Japanese being any easier, especially when by what I've been told, there are a notable amount of Japanese people who know how to speak Japanese, but don't know how to write or even understand some Kanji/Hiragana/Katakana. So from English to Japanese, you wouldn't just need people who are fans of the game, but people who can read and write/type Kanji, Hiragana and Katakana. And you still need people to be invested and think it's worth doing the translations.

Talking about fan translations aside, my original point was that a game being banned or not released in a country doesn't mean the people who know it or played it are next to non-existent by default. Does being banned or unavailable in a country work against it for getting in a crossover made in Japan? Yes it does, but a game being banned or unavailable does not mean it's hardly or next to not known. We have no clear evidence, only word of mouth, which can range from being true to the exact opposite of true.
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Also, I do know of Alcahest and Brandish 2. Didn't so much about Albert Odyssey, I'll admit to that. But lecturing to me about games no one may know means nothing when I played Culdcept, a game series I'm absolute certain no one on this site and the majority of the video game side of Youtube knew about before it's music appearance in Smash Wii U and it's 3 Spirit and music appearances respectively in Smash Bros. Ultimate.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Reminder that Mr. Pants was Rare's mascot, not Banjo. Even if his GBA game only was released in the West, he did made a cameo in Banjo-Tooie (a game that was released in japan)