Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Ivander]

The bolded is where the argument ends.

None of what you listed were at all relevant to the decision when the roster was being drafted.

If she was planned for those 3 before she was picked, then Sakurai likely would've known about those plans. Who's to say she wasn't suggested to him not unlike Pac-Man, Wii Fit, Corrin and Minecraft(especially this one with how Sakurai talked about how much he was suggested Minecraft)? He ultimately chooses whether to include them, yes, but to say all the characters were picked because he himself specifically wanted them from the immediate start is silly.

 

[fogbadge]

Y'all are massively sleeping on King Boo as a fighter choice, fwiw

I’d take him

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Yeah, the idea that she was picked due to being planned to be a prolific character in spin-offs over the simple reality of "she represents the then-recent duology of 3D Mario games" is a bit silly when you think about it out loud like I did 2 minutes ago.

And the biggest aspect of all; Sakurai saw something in her for a potential fighting style as the space witch she is with connections to the Lumas that can serve as an extension of herself.

 

[Kirbeh]

I don't think Pauline is particularly likely tbh. I'm glad she's seemingly joined the recurring cast and hope she is actually here to stay but that doesn't necessarily translate to being the next Mario character in Smash. As others have pointed out, we waited on Daisy for how long? And we're still waiting for Toad and Waluigi.

That said, I'd be plenty happy for her to get chosen. My most wanted Mario character is still Waluigi but the series has no shortage of good options. I'd be happy with most of the characters that get thrown around honestly. Could be Waluigi, Toad, King Boo, Nabbit, Pauline, E. Gadd, Paper Mario etc. I'd take any of them.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

• Judge retains its 9 different possibilities, but some of their effects have been changed.
• 1 receives a damage buff, now dealing 5%. It will now deal hit stun to opponents and no longer deal recoil damage to G&W. It remains the weakest version of Judge but is no longer completely useless.
• 2 also receives a slight damage buff, now dealing 8%. It no longer has a chance of tripping (RNG within your RNG is a bit much imo) but will instead pop opponents upward.
• 9 receives a slight nerf to damage (from 38% down to 30%) and knockback and is not affected by rage. (Personally, I'd get rid of rage as a mechanic altogether but that's a different conversation.)

I've had the idea of a 1v1 changes Judge's properties for a while now as well. What I think would be fun would be to keep 9 as a OHKO move, but remove it from the pool of random numbers. As far as I know, the numbers other than 9 don't have a use case, so they would all get retooled, except for 1, whose only change would be that it would be neutral instead of minus on hit. Something like:

1. Does nothing for you, and you take damage yourself.
2. Always trips, setting up a tech chase.
3. Pops opponents up and toward you for combos.
4. Deals a decent amount of knockback. Ideally it'd do something more interesting than this, but this is just faithful, off the cuff ideas.
5. Pops opponents up for combos, and hits multiple times so it is its own hit confirm.
6. Deals a good amount of knockback at a nasty angle, setting up edge guards.
7. Deals a decent amount of knockback, and summons healing items at your feet.
8. Freezes opponents, which can set up a K.O.

Here's the fun part though: Whenever you hit a number, it is removed from the pool until you miss. Once you have hit with every other number, a 9 is guaranteed to be the next number, resetting the process whether you hit or miss.

With it acting this way, it would end up with similar functionality to moves like Faust's What Could This Be?, and it adds the minigame of trying to land Judge 9 times consecutively, potentially within the same stock depending on what's more fair (I don't want it to just be Waft with extra steps). I can already imagine the hype of someone going for, and especially succeeding in hitting the 9 with this mechanic since hitting it 8 times consecutively builds up tension, and once you've done that, you know what's coming next. It's also a more faithful interpretation of how the minigame works in the first place since you're reacting to the numbers displayed for those first 8 hits.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

If she was planned for those 3 before she was picked, then Sakurai likely would've known about those plans. Who's to say she wasn't suggested to him not unlike Pac-Man, Wii Fit, Corrin and Minecraft(especially this one with how Sakurai talked about how much he was suggested Minecraft)? He ultimately chooses whether to include them, yes, but to say all the characters were picked because he himself specifically wanted them from the immediate start is silly.

Except Rosalina wasn't originally planned for 3D World. She was added later in development, which explains why she's postgame content.
So already that's a potential non-factor as for all we know, it could be Nintendo knowing she'd be in Smash that led to the decision.

And the idea that being "planned" for spin-offs that wouldn't even be public knowledge until the following year (roster drafted by April 2012; World Tour revealed in February 2013 and Party Tour revealed not until April 2013) would help influence the decision is very questionable of a case for multiple reasons.
Most glaringly, the fact that for the same Smash, he had spoken about how it's what is popular and relevant at the time the roster is being drafted with anything after being an issue (i.e. if Fire Emblem Awakening came out later, no Robin).

Seems rather cut and dry that all it took was what Rosalina already had (the Galaxy titles) over future spin-off roles that haven't happened yet or a late addition to 3D World which was still in development.

 

[Watuna4343]

I could really see Pauline getting in first over every remaining Mario character solely based on her recent rise in popularity since her return. Getting reeeaallll vibes from her.

Which sucks, but only for me, I guess.

Y'all are massively sleeping on King Boo as a fighter choice, fwiw

I've commented about it before but... to be very frank about the Mario cast, including King Boo and Pauline - Waluigi is imo a lock to debut in the next game. The fan demand is through the roof at this point after Ultimate, and his popularity exploding is more than enough if it was enough for King K. Rool and Ridley, I feel like Waluigi's absence from Smash is noted even more than these 2, in terms of it being known to even more casual players, like that's outside of the bubble. I don't see how Waluigi misses the roster next time so if there's a Mario character that's getting in first among the remaining, it's absolutely him. What I am trying to say here in regards with Pauline and King Boo and the rest (like Toad, Toadette, Kamek etc.) is that imo, they are 'fighting' for at best the '2nd Mario newcomer' slot. Because if it's just 1 Mario newcomer coming, I don't see how it's not Waluigi. Now, personally I feel like the push for Pauline is smaller than Rosalina's. Rosalina's popularity feels like it was bigger than Pauline's at debut and she's proved to have staying power. Like she's still super popular to this day. Pauline imo has waned a bit in comparison and I don't see how Sakurai finds something interesting with Pauline as he did with Rosalina. So even though she is not impossible (as the 2nd Mario newcomer again), I don't think the Rosalina comparisons are completely valid because I feel like both in terms of popularity and moveset potential Rosalina had a lot more to go off of compared to Pauline. So bottom line with Pauline is that at best she is getting in as the 2nd Mario newcomer in the game behind Waluigi, if she gets in at all.
King Boo I am even less positive about. Much less so, I'm gonna be honest, I really don't see how he came to be so speculated, because imo he's very unlikely. I can't see how an interesting moveset is made out of him or how he's a popular fan demand (yes, he's speculated in some circles online but I mean come on, compared to a lot of characters, what demand is there?), I think that he would just be a very wild choice a la Piranha Plant and I can't see Sakurai choosing him over... a lot of other characters both Mario and non.

 

[PeridotGX]

This is just going to give people more fuel for theories for the secret boss of Chapter 4 or 5 in Detlarune and I am not prepared for it.

You think we didn't know? True scholars of Tobias Vulpine know things that would kill a weaker man. The arcane knowledge cracked our mind - but they crackle with freedom

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I've commented about it before but... to be very frank about the Mario cast, including King Boo and Pauline - Waluigi is imo a lock to debut in the next game. The fan demand is through the roof at this point after Ultimate, and his popularity exploding is more than enough if it was enough for King K. Rool and Ridley, I feel like Waluigi's absence from Smash is noted even more than these 2, in terms of it being known to even more casual players, like that's outside of the bubble. I don't see how Waluigi misses the roster next time so if there's a Mario character that's getting in first among the remaining, it's absolutely him.

I do think Waluigi is very likely, but I'm just gonna let you know people have been saying the bit I bolded since I started speculation I'm pretty sure, so be careful with those locks lol

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Waluigi is imo a lock to debut in the next game.

Waluigi fans circa 2013 and also circa 2018

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Waluigi is imo a lock to debut in the next game

While I think it’s likely for him to be added, there is still the possibility of him still being an Assist Trophy.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Went into Ultimate not believing Waluigi was going to be a fighter (up until was shown which raised a bit of false hope until like 20 minutes later). Didn't follow any of the conspiracy theories post-Assist reveal.

Not going into Smash 6 thinking he's in either.

 

[Wario Bros.]

Even though I really want him, I'm not saying Waluigi is a lock for the next game.

Plus I was really unpleased with the behavior of some Waluigi "supporters" during the Ultimate era.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

The only thing I'm considering a POSSIBLE lock going into next game is a second Splatoon character, just because it's mega exploded since Ultimate's project plan and become a pillar of Nintendo's brand alongside Mario, Zelda, and Animal Crossing (and Pikmin as well, but Pikmin didn't hit it big until Pikmin 4 more recently lol).

Animal Crossing is also big on my radar after the success of New Horizons, so it's basically just those two series that I'd be shocked if they just stay the same into next game and everything else is up to the whims of Sakurai's enigmatic inner machinations lol

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Plus I was really unpleased with the behavior of some Waluigi "supporters" during the Ultimate era.

It honestly amazes me how people have done a 180 on this.

Before, people were chastising the obnoxious behavior and claiming Waluigi was never going to happen as a result.

Now people use the obnoxious behavior to express how Waluigi is "the most wanted" and how he'll happen as a result.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Animal Crossing is also big on my radar after the success of New Horizons, so it's basically just those two series that I'd be shocked if they just stay the same into next game and everything else is up to the whims of Sakurai's enigmatic inner machinations lol

Who is the most likely from that series since it’s not as discussed compared to Splatoon?

 

[Diddy Kong]

Waluigi fans circa 2013 and also circa 2018

True. One side of me has pity for them, another side of me which used to be much more prevalent is laughing at their misery.

However, part of this has to be because of the fanbase. Certain characters I began to dislike almost because of their fanbase. Waluigi is one that was extremely obnoxious, but same for Geno and formerly Ridley. With Ridley it even went so far that before Brawl, support for him was outrightly banned on these boards. No joke.

I warmed up to the character quite a bit cause I see the appeal. He's just funny. And I'd like him as a joke character. Cause to me that's what he's supposed to be.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Who is the most likely from that series since it’s not as discussed compared to Splatoon?

Probably Tom Nook, if I had to pick anyone. New Horizons put him back in the limelight again as the guy who set up the whole island scenario.

And I dunno if they'd do anything with this and it doesn't really impact his chances, but he was also watching Isabelle's trailer in the New Horizons announcement since they were done in the same trailer, so I think that'd be a fun little bit of continuity to work with lol

 

[Laniv]

Who is the most likely from that series since it’s not as discussed compared to Splatoon?

Gee I dunno, feels like a complete mystery to me.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Probably Tom Nook, if I had to pick anyone. New Horizons put him back in the limelight again as the guy who set up the whole island scenario.

Watch we get Ankha instead and freak out those who know.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Waluigi fans circa 2013 and also circa 2018

That's also just numerous fans of several characters in general since at least Brawl.

Tons of people thought characters like Ridley and K. Rool were locks for Smash 4. That didn't happen until Ultimate, after the huge levels of support both characters had was brought directly to Sakurai's attention via the ballot and his stance on the former changed.

Other people also thought characters like Dixie, Krystal, and Isaac were also locks. As of now, much like the case with Waluigi, they've never made the final cut as a playable fighter.

No matter how obvious any new character inclusion might seem, it's better to not go into any new game anticipating a new character as a "lock" or "shoo-in". Tons of people have been down that road with numerous characters before, only to end up even more disappointed or angry than they would have been if they had simply been hoping the character would make the cut instead. You can consider the factors that make a potential newcomer's chances of being added to the roster likely while still acknowledging that it's entirely possible that they won't make the final cut.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

No matter how obvious any new character inclusion might seem, it's better to not go into any new game anticipating a new character as a "lock" or "shoo-in". Tons of people have been down that road with numerous characters before, only to end up even more disappointed or angry than they would have been if they had simply been hoping the character would make the cut instead. You can consider the factors that make a potential newcomer's chances of being added to the roster likely while still acknowledging that it's entirely possible that they won't make the final cut.

I've said it before but I feel like the only genuine lock as long as I've been speculating was Inkling because there was just no way they were going to ignore how Splatoon was like the only big new success out of the Wii U lol

Like, everyone knew Inkling was pretty much guaranteed, it was crazy lol

 

[McSpanker]

I've said it before but I feel like the only genuine lock as long as I've been speculating was Inkling because there was just no way they were going to ignore how Splatoon was like the only big new success out of the Wii U lol

Like, everyone knew Inkling was pretty much guaranteed, it was crazy lol

When that first trailer started with Inkling I knew it was smash immediately. I thought it was gonna be a smash 4 deluxe though

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I've said it before but I feel like the only genuine lock as long as I've been speculating was Inkling because there was just no way they were going to ignore how Splatoon was like the only big new success out of the Wii U lol

Like, everyone knew Inkling was pretty much guaranteed, it was crazy lol

That I actually agree with. It was a newer IP with two massively successful games under it's belt. The only reason it wouldn't have gotten a newcomer is if Sakurai didn't think they were feasible like Villager, and given everything the Inklings can do in their games, that would've been extremely unlikely.

I can't help but wonder if part of the reason Inkling was shown in the game's reveal teaser wasn't just to make the reveal of a new Smash game more surprising, but also because everyone would've already figured out that they in particular were among the newcomers lol.

Watch we get Ankha instead and freak out those who know.

I'm not prepared for the memes that will flood this community if that were to happen.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Pauline's chance is moderate. She's definitely become relevant lately, but it depends on if they think they can make her a good fighter. And if they're more interested in her than Waluigi, Geno, or others. I can see them liking her being a singer, and expanding on her to create a musical fighter. And using stuff like the Minis to fill in any gaps in her moveset.

At the same time, she's become a spinoff character. Depending on when Smash 6's roster was created, they might not look at Super Mario Odyssey for a playable character.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I'm not prepared for the memes that will flood this community if that were to happen.

On a separate note, Typhlosion gets added as a fighter too.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Pauline's chance is moderate. She's definitely become relevant lately, but it depends on if they think they can make her a good fighter. And if they're more interested in her than Waluigi, Geno, or others. I can see them liking her being a singer, and expanding on her to create a musical fighter. And using stuff like the Minis to fill in any gaps in her moveset.

At the same time, she's become a spinoff character. Depending on when Smash 6's roster was created, they might not look at Super Mario Odyssey for a playable character.

I mean if we're gonna get a musical fighter, I'd rather we just go for Rhythm Heaven or at least something like Off the Hook rather than a Mario character lol

 

[KingofPhantoms]

If they can actually do something creative for Pauline's moveset, I won't be upset if she joined the roster.

With that said, I don't really support her as a newcomer and still don't understand all the support she's gotten beyond simply getting a return to the limelight via Odyssey and several following appearances in more recent spin-offs. To me, those appearances aren't enough and they'd really need to think way more outside the box than even usual to cook up a genuinely good and creative moveset for her. Even then, I'd much rather that Waluigi and Toad get in first, particularly the former as I think he's got way more potential and more fans have been asking for both for far longer.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

With that said, I don't really support her as a newcomer and still don't understand all the support she's gotten beyond simply getting a return to the limelight via Odyssey and several following appearances in more recent spin-offs.

That's... basically all there is when it comes to Pauline's support, actually.

 

[Ivander]

On a separate note, Typhlosion gets added as a fighter too.

My good boy did not deserve such slander.

 

[ninjahmos]

Waluigi is one of my most wanted characters and probably one of the most requested for Smash, but saying he's guaranteed would probably just set me up for failure if he isn't on the roster. I do acknowledge how obnoxiously most Waluigi fans behaved during Ultimate's time, and it probably didn't help his chances for the next game.

In fact, if you ask me, it probably just made them not want to include Waluigi at all/just make him an Assist Trophy again.

 

[SubspaceJigglypuff]

I'm not prepared for the memes that will flood this community if that were to happen.

I'll dedicate my first Ankha meme to u

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Y'all are massively sleeping on King Boo as a fighter choice, fwiw

He'd be one of our most unique fighters, for sure. I want one of his specials to be trapping you in a painting, and you have to mash out of it, similar to Egg Lay.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

On a separate note, Typhlosion gets added as a fighter too.

At least that eventually got confirmed to be a series of mistranslations of the original script.

The memes still spread like Games of Thrones' wildfire, though.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

The series that I am not even sure about is Zelda since that series hasn’t gotten a new character since Brawl (Toon Link) or Melee if it’s a character with an original moveset (Sheik/Zelda).

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

That's... basically all there is when it comes to Pauline's support, actually.

Yeah outside of Odyssey's slightly-above-cameo revival of the character, she's been in Mario Tennis, Golf, Strikers, Party, and Kart, where she does the same thing as everyone else outside of hitting a ball with a mic stand in the second and third one.

At least Waluigi has been in tons of games since Mario Tennis 64 and has displayed a pretty decent number of abilities in that time.

 

[ninjahmos]

The series that I am not even sure about is Zelda since that series hasn’t gotten a new character since Brawl (Toon Link) or Melee if it’s a character with an original moveset (Sheik/Zelda).

Yeah…as much as I'd love to see another Zelda character, whether they're from Tears of the Kingdom, Breath of the Wild or any of the previous Zelda games, I'm kinda starting to think they won't do it.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

At least that eventually got confirmed to be a series of mistranslations of the original script.

The memes still spread like Games of Thrones' wildfire, though.

Wasn't there still a pregnancy involved?

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Wasn't there still a pregnancy involved?

I honestly forgot if that part was still accurate to the script or not, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I think the script and idea were scrapped regardless. I'm just glad they did decide to drop the idea because even if it's supposed to be based on some tales in from real life ancient Mythologies, it's still extremely gross lmao.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I honestly forgot if that part was still accurate to the script or not, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I think the script and idea were scrapped regardless. I'm just glad they did decide to drop the idea because even if it's supposed to be based on some tales in from real life ancient Mythologies, it's still extremely gross lmao.

I'm pretty sure it was scrapped yeah, I don't think we found out about it until the Teraleak happened.

And yeah it really doesn't surprise me that Pokemon Company would scrap that lmao