Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Thegameandwatch]

And why wouldn't this "we have to represent our newest Generation" have been extended to Gen 8 in Ultimate rather than just a Spirit Event a week after Sword and Shield came out?

My guess is that Pokemon would have been included if 3rd Party characters weren't being prioritized in the two fighters passes.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

My guess is that Pokemon would have been included if 3rd Party characters weren't being prioritized in the two fighters passes.

That's true, but we also got Byleth, and Three Houses and Sword and Shield were both 2019 releases lol

 

[BritishGuy54]

I could see faring much better with cuts compared to or .

The fact is, Mario is evergreen. It will always be evergreen. It’s one thing to cut a Pokémon who isn’t that popular anymore, or a FE Lord who is from a divisive game.

But Mario… Most would say or gets cut, but I think there’s a chance both stay. And of course, is by far the most likely echo fighter to return.

Only and really have a good chance at being cut.

This does kind of pose issues for new Mario characters though. People claim too much Mario is a problem, and that could cause some hesitancy on multiple Mario characters next game.

I think Paper Mario kind of evades this issue due to pretty much being his own series, but don’t be surprised if Waluigi isn’t in the next game if they decide the core lineup is fine.

 

[dream1ng]

Yeah but at that point, the planning could also happen around the time where they're already doing the final touches on the base game, like what happened with Fighters Pass 1.

At that point where Smash 6 and Gen X are actually coming out, yeah. But that's not when they'd first discuss the matter. If in their initial talks, at the beginning of development, they realize their then-current gen would no longer be current, they may look forward, if promotion remains a priority to them.

This would not be a decision Sakurai would take on Day 1. It would be handled very late in development alongside all the DLC.

I know Pokémon has a reputation for being the only series in all of gaming with early bird privileges when Sakurai makes a roster but to assume Sakurai would spend entire years doing **** all about a planned Pokémon just to time it with a Gen release as DLC is a complete opposite of his work ethic of not touching DLC until the work on the game is done. (Not that I said the game being done, not the game being released, these are two different things)

You're basically going off on an assumption that Sakurai is outright lying to everyone about how he develops Smash to build this theory.

Sakurai's work ethic would remain as it is, this whole decision would be at the behest of what TPC wants. They clearly have tight control over the Pokemon newcomers. They would be the ones who would want the character to coincide with the gen at hand, and if base didn't mesh but DLC did, their requests very well may reflect that.

Sakurai isn't the one deciding to leave placeholders for a year until he can get a hold of next gen designs. Sakurai isn't the one who decided among all Pokemon it was either going to be Incineroar or Decidueye. The entire catalyst of Pokemon's promotional representation comes from TPC/GF, and Sakurai goes along with it.

Do you think in his crossover of big names in gaming, with all the famous Pokemon out there, Sakurai is the one who would choose a character who doesn't currently exist as more than a drawing? Every time Sakurai has seemingly been allowed to decide a Pokemon, he chooses a notable Gen 1 (or Pichu). The entire decision-making process for the series in the last few Smash games is antithetical to Sakurai's MO; it's TPC's MO.

And this is absolutely how TPC operates in Smash. From the perspective of promotion, their newest gen will be the priority. In theory Sakurai could challenge them wanting a DLC character as opposed to base and fight them on the issue, but... to what end?

To what end is TPC's position unreasonable? They're not asking Sakurai to do more work than normal. They're not asking Sakurai to add DLC to a game that doesn't have DLC. There's no reason to believe they'd ask Sakurai to actually work on the character until work began on the DLC fighters. And all the producers and those who would sign off on Sakurai's project plan are obviously aware Sakurai defers to TPC on these sorts of things; it wouldn't reflect adversely on him to capitulate. It would be the status quo. Smash's development is not a testament solely of what Sakurai wants.

I'm sure Sakurai would rather choose the Pokemon character right from the jump. I'm sure he would've liked to do that the previous two times as well. I'm sure were it up to him, he'd choose Pokemon that are actually proven and established. But I also think Sakurai isn't going to stand opposed to TPC unless he has very very good reason to. And allocating a future DLC spot so they can capitalize off promotion doesn't seem like sufficient cause to me.

You're basically going off on an assumption that Sakurai is outright lying to everyone about how he develops Smash to build this theory.

• Sakurai said there weren't any plans for paid Smash 4 DLC after Mewtwo's reveal when they were almost certainly working on at least Lucas, if not actively reaching out to like Capcom and Square.
• Sakurai said Smash has never been turned down but also said they weren't able to land Snake for 4. I also believe they did try for Sora unsuccessfully for Smash 4 before eventually getting him, but obv that is unsubstantiated.
• Sakurai said Nintendo chose the Ultimate DLC and everyone just assumes he's lying and is still like "Sakurai chose Terry because he likes FF/KoF". Personally I think he probably did have some role in some of Ultimate's DLC selection.
• Sakurai has said characters have to carry game history with them, but when it's at the behest of another party, we also get characters whose games aren't even out when they were selected
• Also the whole ballot, from Bayo's selection to poising it as for 4 was pretty dishonest.

Sakurai has been less than upfront about development before. In broad strokes I believe he is telling the truth, but I also believe there are exceptions, especially when he is deferring to another entity who does things differently.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I could see faring much better with cuts compared to or .

The fact is, Mario is evergreen. It will always be evergreen. It’s one thing to cut a Pokémon who isn’t that popular anymore, or a FE Lord who is from a divisive game.

But Mario… Most would say or gets cut, but I think there’s a chance both stay. And of course, is by far the most likely echo fighter to return.

Only and really have a good chance at being cut.

This does kind of pose issues for new Mario characters though. People claim too much Mario is a problem, and that could cause some hesitancy on multiple Mario characters next game.

I think Paper Mario kind of evades this issue due to pretty much being his own series, but don’t be surprised if Waluigi isn’t in the next game if they decide the core lineup is fine.

Although Pokemon will likely not have much cuts but more cuts then Mario. and are probably the only ones that are guaranteed to stay. The opposite for .


are likely to stay but if Pokemon Trainer isn't returning then it will probably be solo like in Smash 4.

: Not 100% sure.

feels like a 50/50.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Although Pokemon will likely not have much cuts but more cuts then Mario. and are probably the only ones that are guaranteed to stay. The opposite for .


are likely to stay but if Pokemon Trainer isn't returning then it will probably be solo like in Smash 4.

: Not 100% sure.

feels like a 50/50.

quite literally is 50/50. If Z-A has him as one of the starters, I think that helps his chances of returning massively.

A lot of people are dismissive of the wrestler cat right now, but I guarantee everyone will be putting him on their predictions once Litten is revealed as a starter for Legends Z-A if we’re following the starter rotation from Legends Arceus.

I think another character in a similar boat is , mainly hinging on the idea of Prime 2 and Prime 3 ports coming soon. If we don’t see anything, I think suddenly becomes a more likely echo to return.

 

[Idon]

Lowkey I'd love to see Solozard again.
Love my big ole dragon and I'm really not interested in PT since being remotely good at them means just relying on Squirtly/Ivy 90% of the time.

For once, I wanna see them fully go all in on Charizard and expanding his kit in a hypothetical world where he doesn't need to balanced with the consideration of being able to swap with Squirtle and Ivysaur in mind and no, I don't mean just replacing down B with Rock Smash, actually make him cool this time please and not an HM slave lmao.

Think about all the **** he's able to do across Pokemon media like giant Fire Blast Projectiles, Fire Punch or Mega Punch armored melee attacks, Seismic Toss Command Grabs, Damage over Time Firespins, whatever and I think you could really breathe new life into this character designed initially in Brawl. Like he should at LEAST be able to float a bit cmon now he has those giant wings for a reason.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I'm not gonna lie, I really dislike Alear's design. And so I hope our next FE newcomer isn't them.

 

[fogbadge]

once Litten is revealed as a starter for Legends Z-A if we’re following the starter rotation from Legends Arceus.

hey if this is from the massive data leak you should put that in spoilers

 

[Thegameandwatch]

If Z-A has him as one of the starters, I think that helps his chances of returning massively.

A lot of people are dismissive of the wrestler cat right now, but I guarantee everyone will be putting him on their predictions once Litten is revealed as a starter for Legends Z-A if we’re following the starter rotation from Legends Arceus.

Although I think that depends on when Smash 6 is being planned. If it’s the game that Sakurai is making now then it probably wouldn’t be a factor.

hey if this is from the massive data leak you should put that in spoilers

I don’t think the starters got leaked yet.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Sakurai's work ethic would remain as it is

If Sakurai's work ethic remains as it is, he won't survive another Smash development.

 

[Cyberfire]

After playing the demo of Ultimate at my local Comic Con, the Nintendo rep actually asked for any feedback, and my girlfriend told them she wanted Charizard back as a solo character. And the rep actually said he'd feed that back to the dev team.

I still laugh at that interaction today. They totally wasn't delivering Sakurai notes from these events, but it's funny to imagine him reading about my girlfriend's dislike of transformation characters.

 

[Perkilator]

I’m still surprised (and NGL, kinda disappointed) that Gen 8 didn’t get a DLC newcomer at all in Ultimate. If I could have my way, I would’ve at least saved a Gen 8 Pokémon (and also Byleth) for Vol. 2 and have the 5th DLC character in Vol. 1 be one last 3rd party character.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I’m still surprised (and NGL, kinda disappointed) that Gen 8 didn’t get a DLC newcomer at all in Ultimate. If I could have my way, I would’ve at least saved a Gen 8 Pokémon (and also Byleth) for Vol. 2 and have the 5th DLC character in Vol. 1 be one last 3rd party character.

Probably Kazuya if it has to be a moved DLC character.

Steve took time, Sora was a bonus, Sephiroth has overlap with Hero as a Square Enix rep.

 

[BritishGuy54]

hey if this is from the massive data leak you should put that in spoilers

Data leak? It’s just a guess going from Legends Arceus starter rotation.

 

[fogbadge]

Data leak? It’s just a guess going from Legends Arceus starter rotation.

it’s a pretty random guess to be said with such certainty

 

[BritishGuy54]

Legends Arceus had starters from Generations 2, 5, and 7.

It’s reasonable to think they’ll follow suit.

it’s a pretty random guess to be said with such certainty

 

[Noipoi]

quite literally is 50/50. If Z-A has him as one of the starters, I think that helps his chances of returning massively.

A lot of people are dismissive of the wrestler cat right now, but I guarantee everyone will be putting him on their predictions once Litten is revealed as a starter for Legends Z-A if we’re following the starter rotation from Legends Arceus.

Please let this happen

A second Incineroar would be so freaking funny

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Please let this happen

A second Incineroar would be so freaking funny

Especially for VGC since he already has high usage.

 

[BuckleyTim]

If that happens then the pokemon cuts discussion will get truly insane. Who do you even cut past gen 1 when mega Lucario, mega Mewtwo, Greninja, and incineroar could all appear in the most recent game together?

 

[Arcanir]

Legends Arceus had starters from Generations 2, 5, and 7.

It’s reasonable to think they’ll follow suit.

I personally think we'll get mixed Starters again as that was well received, but I wouldn't say it's absolutely certain. It's only one instance as that's the only game so far, it's not guaranteed that's what they'll stick with and they can easily mix up the set with other Starter generations (ex. Torchic/Piplup/Snivy). Hell, for all we know, we may not even get mixed Starters and we just get Kalos + Megas as that's what many fans have wanted for years.

That said, Regional Incineroar would be funny as I would like to see how it'd dominate VGC twice over. Bonus points if they manage to do it in Singles too.

 

[fogbadge]

Legends Arceus had starters from Generations 2, 5, and 7.

It’s reasonable to think they’ll follow suit.

It’s more they picked three very popular starters

 

[Nabbitfan730]

Crash was Sony's answer to Mario if you didn't know. I'm pretty sure in the late 90s Crash was always the character people thought of in terms of a mascot for Sony.

Nice marketing sure but means nothing past 1998

I mean Crash does have real Japanese support if the fan polls are anything to go off of.
I don’t think the amount of characters a company has matters much at all. If Nintendo wants a character in the game they’ll get them in the game, Square Enix has 4 unique characters already, so 4 Microsoft characters isn’t a stretch at all. I imagine Crash is a character that is on Nintendo’s radar, due to his immense popularity, cultural significance, and high demand for Smash.

A lot of people still don’t see Sony owned characters as a viable option at this point for various reasons, so the idea that they would add someone like Abby or Parappa before Crash is absurd.

Fan Polls aren't exactly good judgements of popularity due to a variety of factors like sample bias. Again, most of Crash's hype is just banwagoning Banjo's. Guarantee a significant drop in current times if polls were conducted today.

"If Nintendo wants a character in the game they’ll get them in the game, Square Enix has 4 unique characters already, so 4 Microsoft characters isn’t a stretch at all"

This was never a question of contention. Irrelevant to my point. The point if any of those 4 Microsoft characters would be Crash compared to their much more popular and successful IPs like Halo, Overwatch, COD etc which very unlikely.

If Nintendo actually believed that hyperbole you had for Crash, he would've been in right now/

"A lot of people still don’t see Sony owned characters as a viable option at this point" Lot of those people are ignorant of character selection or even gaming history. Why would Sony owned reps be unviable compared to any other third party rep?

Ally is lot more relevant and popular than Crash probably ever was. Didn't TLOU sell 30 million?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Like he should at LEAST be able to float a bit cmon now he has those giant wings for a reason.

Unfortunately, as majestic as its wings are, Charizard remains a flightless bird. Cursed to remain on the ground it walks upon like the common Doduo.

 

[Gorgonzales]

I’m still surprised (and NGL, kinda disappointed) that Gen 8 didn’t get a DLC newcomer at all in Ultimate.

It's funny you say that because a Gen 8 newcomer was the one character I was actively dreading making it in (other than more fire emblem but byleth already took care of that problem for me).

 

[Gengar84]

It's funny you say that because a Gen 8 newcomer was the one character I was actively dreading making it in (other than more fire emblem but byleth already took care of that problem for me).

It was entirely depending on which Gen 8 Pokemon it would have been for me. I’d have been really hyped for Orbeetle, Toxtricity, or Corviknight but pretty meh on any of the starters.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

It's funny you say that because a Gen 8 newcomer was the one character I was actively dreading making it in (other than more fire emblem but byleth already took care of that problem for me).

Gen 8 is probably the only generation where I am not the biggest fan of any of the final starters.

Dragapult, Corviknight or Toxtricity would have been cool.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Gen 8 is probably the only generation where I am not the biggest fan of any of the final starters.

Scorbunny is at least my favorite base for of any Fire starter and I would've hoped in the event where Gen 8 is on the table, Sakurai would notice that he doesn't need Cinderace to have a firey bunny that kicks rocks around.

 

[mynameisBlade]

Nice marketing sure but means nothing past 1998



Fan Polls aren't exactly good judgements of popularity due to a variety of factors like sample bias. Again, most of Crash's hype is just banwagoning Banjo's. Guarantee a significant drop in current times if polls were conducted today.

"If Nintendo wants a character in the game they’ll get them in the game, Square Enix has 4 unique characters already, so 4 Microsoft characters isn’t a stretch at all"

This was never a question of contention. Irrelevant to my point. The point if any of those 4 Microsoft characters would be Crash compared to their much more popular and successful IPs like Halo, Overwatch, COD etc which very unlikely.

If Nintendo actually believed that hyperbole you had for Crash, he would've been in right now/

"A lot of people still don’t see Sony owned characters as a viable option at this point" Lot of those people are ignorant of character selection or even gaming history. Why would Sony owned reps be unviable compared to any other third party rep?

Ally is lot more relevant and popular than Crash probably ever was. Didn't TLOU sell 30 million?

We can simply agree to disagree. Crash would get just as much hype as many of the others regardless of what any of us think.

 

[Perkilator]

Lowkey I'd love to see Solozard again.
Love my big ole dragon and I'm really not interested in PT since being remotely good at them means just relying on Squirtly/Ivy 90% of the time.

For once, I wanna see them fully go all in on Charizard and expanding his kit in a hypothetical world where he doesn't need to balanced with the consideration of being able to swap with Squirtle and Ivysaur in mind and no, I don't mean just replacing down B with Rock Smash, actually make him cool this time please and not an HM slave lmao.

Think about all the **** he's able to do across Pokemon media like giant Fire Blast Projectiles, Fire Punch or Mega Punch armored melee attacks, Seismic Toss Command Grabs, Damage over Time Firespins, whatever and I think you could really breathe new life into this character designed initially in Brawl. Like he should at LEAST be able to float a bit cmon now he has those giant wings for a reason.

Seeing this actually inspired me to whip up an overhaul! This one took relatively quickly compared to other movesets I've done.

Spoiler: Charizard overhaul

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

And metal is heavy; maybe it needs time to rest after flying so long.

I mean a kilogram of steel is heavier then a kilogram of feathers

 

[Wonder Smash]

It should be worth pointing out that Crash was created because the PlayStation needed a mascot to compete with Mario and Sonic.

Making Crash Bandicoot – part 2

So what was it that Sega and Nintendo had in 1994, but Sony didn’t? An existing competing mascot character. Sega had Sonic and Nintendo had Mario, but Sony product slate was blank. So we set …

all-things-andy-gavin.com

So Sony-owned or not, he did represent them as their mascot and that's an important part of his legacy that people know him for to this day.

 

[mynameisBlade]

It should be worth pointing out that Crash was created because the PlayStation needed a mascot to compete with Mario and Sonic.

Making Crash Bandicoot – part 2

So what was it that Sega and Nintendo had in 1994, but Sony didn’t? An existing competing mascot character. Sega had Sonic and Nintendo had Mario, but Sony product slate was blank. So we set …

all-things-andy-gavin.com

So Sony-owned or not, he did represent them as their mascot and that's an important part of his legacy that people know him for to this day.

Yeah I pointed that out a bit ago, but thanks for the link. I remembered reading that somewhere. Pretty interesting story.

 

[Louie G.]

This does kind of pose issues for new Mario characters though. People claim too much Mario is a problem, and that could cause some hesitancy on multiple Mario characters next game.

don’t be surprised if Waluigi isn’t in the next game if they decide the core lineup is fine.

But they won’t decide that. Mario getting a newcomer next game is not a matter of hypothetical, it’s a thing that is going to happen. More likely than not, it will be two newcomers. I’m sure they aren’t looking to flood the whole roster with Mario but more than most other series, it’s not really limited by an arbitrary character limit. The fact of the matter is, the reason Mario characters continue to be added is because they are the most universal faces with vast mass appeal to players old and new.

We’ve already breached the “core” Mario cast once we added Rosalina. Arguably, Waluigi is one of two members of this extended core cast to be absent at the moment (the other would be Toad) - with near perfect spinoff attendance and prominent brand / merchandising presence. The “core” is Mario, Luigi, Peach and Bowser (+ Yoshi and Wario) and we’re obviously not going to be receding all the way back to that.

I recognize that you acknowledge Paper Mario as a prospect too, and I think he has a decent enough chance, but I think in the way of fairness we need to extend the same criticism toward him that is often dealt toward Waluigi. If the belief is that Smash is less concerned about Mario spinoffs, then the RPGs are just as if not more out of the way from this core brand than Kart, Sports and Party. Of those four branches of the Mario IP, the RPGs sell the least, are the least correlated with the mainline titles and Waluigi is in 3/4 of them that frequently sell upwards of 10 million units each. So I dunno if this comparison stacks up so well, just because this variant of Mario is the main character - Waluigi has more mass appeal.

Obviously there’s a chance Waluigi gets skipped over all the same, for one reason or another. I’m just rarely convinced at the “why”, because it tends to come off kind of selective in its effort to alienate him.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I mean a kilogram of steel is heavier then a kilogram of feathers

So a kilogram of steel feathers....

 

[DarkShadow20]

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

I assume the leak he is talking about has been covered here, and I don't put much stock in it, however he said his own source said Smash 6 would be announced this holiday and would be released in March 2026. He also said he heard Waluigi and Geno would be two characters added.

Does anyone know if he has correctly leaked anything in the past? Since he's a part of the competitive Smash scene, I could see him having a legit source.

 

[CosmicEternity44]

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

I assume the leak he is talking about has been covered here, and I don't put much stock in it, however he said his own source said Smash 6 would be announced this holiday and would be released in March 2026. He also said he heard Waluigi and Geno would be two characters added.

Does anyone know if he has correctly leaked anything in the past? Since he's a part of the competitive Smash scene, I could see him having a legit source.

Aside from a few biases, the comments section does not seem to believe it, so they probably don't think he is credible.

Never heard of that guy before, anyway. March 2026 seems too soon, anyway.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I’m still surprised (and NGL, kinda disappointed) that Gen 8 didn’t get a DLC newcomer at all in Ultimate. If I could have my way, I would’ve at least saved a Gen 8 Pokémon (and also Byleth) for Vol. 2 and have the 5th DLC character in Vol. 1 be one last 3rd party character.

But then that would've made the reception of Fighters Pass 2 a LOT worse.

We'd go in with the assumption that DLCs are all third parties because of Vol. 1 so having FOUR first parties (Min Min, Gen 8, Byleth, Aegis) would have completely ****ed people's perception and gave an even bigger war zone about which if the few remaining spots could belong to the third-party flavor of the month.

At least Byleth ending off Volume 1 made us finally start considering first-parties seriously before Volume 2.

 

[Louie G.]

Smash 6 would be announced this holiday and would be released in March 2026.

I can't see Smash only given a window of 4-6 months to release, even Ultimate had longer than that and post-E3 was on the back-end of that (6 months).

Assuming next Smash falls back on the old slow burn routine and doesn't drop their entire veteran roster from the get-go, which seems far more likely for a roster that is not founded on Everyone is Here, we'd probably be looking at over one year of buildup to release. Admittedly I'm not bothering to watch the video, so maybe they're proposing that the next game is another Ultimate, but even so they'd have to be delivering info pretty much nonstop with little breathing room to build excitement around the new content.

 

[CosmicEternity44]

I can't see Smash only given a window of 4-6 months to release, even Ultimate had longer than that and post-E3 was on the back-end of that (6 months).

Assuming next Smash falls back on the old slow burn routine and doesn't drop their entire veteran roster from the get-go, which seems far more likely for a roster that is not founded on Everyone is Here, we'd probably be looking at over one year of buildup to release. Admittedly I'm not bothering to watch the video, so maybe they're proposing that the next game is another Ultimate, but even so they'd have to be delivering info pretty much nonstop with little breathing room to build excitement around the new content.

Good catch on the reveal to release window, Louie! That said, I don't think the time between reveal and release will be that long anyway. I think it would be more like Brawl's and Smash 4's.

They also said Subspace cutscenes would return. Doesn't Sakurai hate those kinds of things?