Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Another piece of info to consider: The SSBU team was put on the Tekken Project. If Sakurai's next game was another Smash, this begs the question of why they wouldn't keep the team together for it. It also wouldn't make sense with the fact that Sakurai had to wait until 2022 for a team to be put together to make another sequel to the game that's still getting DLC.

I think I'm calling it. This new game is not Smash.

 

[Dukefire]

Development for any project is a hassle regardless.

If you've oversee a project you crafted for years, you still want to guide it even if a successor is being selected.

 

[ScrubReborn]

You think some of the characters that gotten Mii costumes during Fighters Pass 1&2 might have a shot again?

Regardless of wheter this is Smash or not, I don't see why not. I doubt Sakurai's thinking "We made him a Mii for FP2, so I'm gonna exclude him from the new game".

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I'm sure he would. But Nintendo would stab him with a pitchfork.

bottom text

 

[TheLamerGamer]

I do find it funny that, if this is a new smash, given the timeframe a lot of the characters we can discuss are the exact same ones we were talking about for FP2.

(I get to hope for nahobino still, since the game was being heavily marketed by nintendo in this timeframe... although I wonder if any vengeance content would be included in that scenario).

This would also likely mean mario wonder, etc., wouldn't get much substantial new content, which is a shame.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Don’t tell me I have to learn what happened in 2022 because I was not tuned in with the passage of time back then. Sora being released in 2021 already feels incredulous to me.

 

[AreJay25]

Regardless of wheter this is Smash or not, I don't see why not. I doubt Sakurai's thinking "We made him a Mii for FP2, so I'm gonna exclude him from the new game".

Yeah if anything it probably helps those characters.

Chrom, Isabelle, and K. Rool were all DLC costumes for Smash 4 before they eventually made the jump to playable in Ultimate. It shows that they're at least on Sakurai's mind around that time.

 

[Guynamednelson]

a lot of the characters we can discuss are the exact same ones we were talking about for FP2

feels like it's already like that anyway

...Anyway if this new project that was planned in 2021 is the next Smash, wouldn't Studio N and S have been set up earlier than late 2023?

 

[Gengar84]

I think it’s funny that there’s actually a chance that Scarlet and Violet are too new for consideration for a base game character. We were recently speculating the possibility of a Gen 10 Pokémon. I think Legends Arceus has pretty perfect timing if this is indeed Smash, coming out in January of 2022. Not that there aren’t plenty of Scarlet and Violet Pokemon I’d like to see in Smash, just an amusing thought.

 

[Eldrake]

I think it’s funny that there’s actually a chance that Scarlet and Violet are too new for consideration for a base game character. We were recently speculating the possibility of a Gen 10 Pokémon. I think Legends Arceus has pretty perfect timing if this is indeed Smash, coming out in January of 2022. Not that there aren’t plenty of Scarlet and Violet Pokemon I’d like to see in Smash, just an amusing thought.

Finally

Arceus promoted to fighter status

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I think it’s funny that there’s actually a chance that Scarlet and Violet are too new for consideration for a base game character. We were recently speculating the possibility of a Gen 10 Pokémon. I think Legends Arceus has pretty perfect timing if this is indeed Smash, coming out in January of 2022. Not that there aren’t plenty of Scarlet and Violet Pokemon I’d like to see in Smash, just an amusing thought.

Nah, April 2021 is a good time frame for Gen 9, actually. Greninja was picked for Smash 4 before GF even gave it a name so ScaVio getting a character isn't just possible in a timeline where Sakurai's current project is Smash but an absolute guarantee.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

feels like it's already like that anyway

...Anyway if this new project that was planned in 2021 is the next Smash, wouldn't Studio N and S have been set up earlier than late 2023?

This is the lynch pin in why I think the new project isn't Smash. I think what would make more sense is that these studios were formed in late 2023, spent a few months getting them ready. Early 2024, is when Sakurai joined and pre-production started.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

feels like it's already like that anyway

...Anyway if this new project that was planned in 2021 is the next Smash, wouldn't Studio N and S have been set up earlier than late 2023?

While I agree, I'll switch sides and play devil's advocate.

It's possible the distinction of making studios specifically for Nintendo collabs was made because of all the frequent work done in the past decade+, regardless of whether or not something was actively worked on at the time of making that decision.

 

[Gengar84]

Nah, April 2021 is a good time frame for Gen 9, actually. Greninja was picked for Smash 4 before GF even gave it a name so ScaVio getting a character isn't just possible in a timeline where Sakurai's current project is Smash but an absolute guarantee.

You might be right but Scarlet and Violet came out in November of 2022, at the end of the year. That’s pretty far from April of 2021 if development or character selection started at that point. I would think Legends Arceus would fit better as it came out in January of 2022.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You might be right but Scarlet and Violet came out in November of 2022, at the end of the year. That’s pretty far from April of 2021 if development or character selection started at that point. I would think Legends Arceus would fit better as it came out in January of 2022.

Development on Smash 4 started in February 2012. Pokemon XY came out in October 2013.

Those are very comparable time lengths.

 

[Gengar84]

Development on Smash 4 started in February 2012. Pokemon XY came out in October 2013.

Those are very comparable time lengths.

Fair enough. I didn’t realize that. I still wouldn’t call a Scarlet and Violet Pokemon a guarantee but it does make it a lot more likely.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Fair enough. I didn’t realize that. I still wouldn’t call a Scarlet and Violet Pokemon a guarantee but it does make it a lot more likely.

Then consider the fact that Black 2 and White 2 came out the same year Smash 4 started getting worked on and we got a Gen 6 Pokemon instead of Kyurem, who was central to BW2's plot, or literally anyone else from Gen 5.

In this scenario, Game Freak would absolutely push for something in the long run rather than what would come out in a few months because Greninja gives us a precedence of them doing exactly that.

 

[AreJay25]

This is the lynch pin in why I think the new project isn't Smash. I think what would make more sense is that these studios were formed in late 2023, spent a few months getting them ready. Early 2024, is when Sakurai joined and pre-production started.

The thing that's making me doubt it's anything BUT Smash is the fact that Sakurai specifically mentioned that he was "requested" to come up with this project plan, rather than something he did on his own accord.

Sure, the man's got more than enough of a legacy for anyone to just approach him and ask him to develop something... but considering this was the year Ultimate's DLC wrapped up, and there's precedent for him working on a new game during the final months of the then-current entry, the timing seems VERY suspicious if you ask me.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

The thing that's making me doubt it's anything BUT Smash is the fact that Sakurai specifically mentioned that he was "requested" to come up with this project plan, rather than something he did on his own accord.

He's a freelance director. Being "requested" to work on a game just seems normal in that position.

 

[ScrubReborn]

I don't feel like rewatchng the entire 40 minutes. Did Sakurai say he started working on the concept after Kazuya's release or Sora's? I forgot.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I don't feel like rewatchng the entire 40 minutes. Did Sakurai say he started working on the concept after Kazuya's release or Sora's? I forgot.

It was while working on the Kazuya presentation specifically. He said July for that which is technically incorrect since that was late June but that **** was 3 years ago so I can't blame him for being slightly wrong here.

 

[Gengar84]

Then consider the fact that Black 2 and White 2 came out the same year Smash 4 started getting worked on and we got a Gen 6 Pokemon instead of Kyurem, who was central to BW2's plot, or literally anyone else from Gen 5.

In this scenario, Game Freak would absolutely push for something in the long run rather than what would come out in a few months because Greninja gives us a precedence of them doing exactly that.

Yeah, good point. In any event, I just hope it’s a Pokémon I like a lot. Thankfully I like several Pokemon in every generation so it’s not a problem if we get one from any game. For Scarlet and Violet specifically, my favorites are:

Ceruledge
Great Tusk
Lokix
Koraidon
Miraidon
Iron Thorns
Annihilape
Meowscarada
Ogrepon

I’d be happy with any of those but least excited for Meowscarada because we just got a Dark types cat starter in Ultimate. Definitely my favorite starter line from the Gen and one of my favorite Grass type starters overall. I think I actually prefer Floragato to Meowscarada but both are cool.

 

[AreJay25]

He's a freelance director. Being "requested" to work on a game just seems normal in that position.

Yes, but he's been a freelance director for a long time now. And most of what he's been working on during this time period has specifically been Smash.

I admit that I could be totally wrong here. But things are lining up a bit too nicely in this situation.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Yes, but he's been a freelance director for a long time now. And most of what he's been working on during this time period has specifically been Smash.

I admit that I could be totally wrong here. But things are lining up a bit too nicely in this situation.

Maybe it is, maybe it's not. But looking at the word "requested" as an excuse to say it's Smash is definitely grasping at straws.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

The thing that's making me doubt it's anything BUT Smash is the fact that Sakurai specifically mentioned that he was "requested" to come up with this project plan, rather than something he did on his own accord.

Sure, the man's got more than enough of a legacy for anyone to just approach him and ask him to develop something... but considering this was the year Ultimate's DLC wrapped up, and there's precedent for him working on a new game during the final months of the then-current entry, the timing seems VERY suspicious if you ask me.

There's also the GameCube controller leak from a few days back.
I understanding not wanting to get one's hopes up too much, but come on - it's clearly Smash.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Yeah, good point. In any event, I just hope it’s a Pokémon I like a lot. Thankfully I like several Pokemon in every generation so it’s not a problem if we get one from any game. For Scarlet and Violet specifically, my favorites are:

Ceruledge
Great Tusk
Lokix
Koraidon
Miraidon
Iron Thorns
Annihilape
Meowscarada
Ogrepon

I’d be happy with any of those but least excited for Meowscarada because we just got a Dark types cat starter in Ultimate. Definitely my favorite starter line from the Gen and one of my favorite Grass type starters overall. I think I actually prefer Floragato to Meowscarada but both are cool.

Hoping for Ogerpon but if this project is Smash and it was being planned in late 2021/early 2022, then I dunno how far along Teal Mask would've been exactly. Since it came out in September 2023, I would imagine everything was concepted out at least, so it's possible, but there's really no telling.

Anyway, I feel like it's probably too early to say for sure this is Smash but I do think it's possible that it is. Let's not forget that Smash 4 was announced to be a thing that exists at E3 2011, and as for the team, announcing it in November last year doesn't mean it didn't exist beforehand. It's entirely possible that the time frame mentioned is the project plan phase, then he gathers the team in 2022 and the team is officially revealed the next year.

That said, no idea if this IS actually Smash, but if it is, what a way to technically reveal it lmao

 

[Gorgonzales]

Nintendo games aren't announced far in advance anymore. Big pre-release periods are a thing of the past, unfortunately.

"Unfortunately"? The short announcement-to-release periods are one of my favorite things about modern Nintendo!

You don't have to wait over 2 years knowing a project exists before finally getting to play it. It's a much better system to announce the games when they're near completion so that consumers don't have to wait long for them and the excitement can still feel fresh.

The early reveals of games like TotK and Bayonetta 3 felt really deflating because of how long they took to actually arrive. They never live up to expectations after that long. Doesn't help how dragged out TotK's trailers were and how each new one felt like it had less and less to show.

 

[Gengar84]

My memory isn’t great. Does anyone know whether Smash has always come out in the first two years of a console’s life besides Smash 64? I feel like it’s usually a pretty early release but I could be missing one that came later. If they have all been early, I think that further strengthens the case that this is Smash.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

My memory isn’t great. Does anyone know whether Smash has always come out in the first two years of a console’s life besides Smash 64? I feel like it’s usually a pretty early release but I could be missing one that came later. If they have all been early, I think that further strengthens the case that this is Smash.

Melee was a launch game in 2001, Brawl came out in January 2008 when the Wii launched in 2006, Smash 4 came out in 2014 with the Wii U coming out in 2012, and Ultimate came out in 2018 when the Switch launched in 2017, so typically it does, yeah.

 

[Dinoman96]

My memory isn’t great. Does anyone know whether Smash has always come out in the first two years of a console’s life besides Smash 64? I feel like it’s usually a pretty early release but I could be missing one that came later. If they have all been early, I think that further strengthens the case that this is Smash.

You also have Melee, that came out only within a couple of months since the GCN's launch in late 2001. That was magical.

 

[Noipoi]

My memory isn’t great. Does anyone know whether Smash has always come out in the first two years of a console’s life besides Smash 64? I feel like it’s usually a pretty early release but I could be missing one that came later. If they have all been early, I think that further strengthens the case that this is Smash.

GameCube: Melee came out not too long after the system’s launch
Wii: Brawl came out two years after the console’s release (was originally slated for 2007)
Wii U: 4 came out two years after the console’s release
Switch: Ultimate came out one year after the console’s release

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You also have Melee, that came out only within a couple of months since the GCN's launch in late 2001. That was magical.

It was magical when you forget that it was planned to be a launch title and failed to actually deliver on that.

Many people on the GameCube's launch got a console but no Smash.

 

[Jave]

Cross-posted from another forum:

Assuming the game Sakurai referred to in his final video is indeed Smash 6 (which is what makes the most sense), here are my thoughts:

• If Nintendo holds off to reveal the Switch 2 on early 2025, I feel there's a good chance the first Smash 6 teaser might be there. If Smash 6 is indeed intended to be released on the first 12 months of Switch 2, they need the ample time frame to release the new character trailers.
• This timeline does fit with the reveal of Namco-Bandai having two new development teams made exclusively to work with Nintendo so the dev team will likely remain the same from Ultimate. This should keep development smooth as all veterans can just reuse assets, and they can focus development on newcomers.
• Pokemon Gen 10 is 99% out of the question, so it will (almost) definitely be a Gen 9 Pokemon on base roster (and every Meowscarada fan rejoiced).
• Alear's chances definitely feel better with this timeline. FE Engage was already finished by the time development started on Smash 6 so it's not far-fetched to think IntSys told Sakurai about the game at around the time of the pitch in late 2021. Alear is also supported by Youtube Theory and Final Spirits Theory.
• A while back I said that the cutoff point for characters in Smash 6 was earlier this year with the release of Echoes of Wisdom, but now I think it's definitely earlier. At most, mid-2023 with the release of Pikmin 4, so I think Oatchi baaaaarely makes it into potential newcomer territory. I think it all boils down whether Sakurai wants to add him. This does suck for Echoes Zelda, though. I really wanted her.
• Not sure if this helps Ayumi or not. The FDC Duology Remake was out before the initial Smash 6 pitch, which is good for her, but development on Smash 6 probably started before Sakurai was made aware of the Emio game, which isn't the best situation for her. I still think she has good chances of making it in.

 

[Dinoman96]

And like I said before, tbh the reason some of those Smash games took longer to come out is because Sakurai was working on other stuff in-between games. Between Melee and Brawl, he worked on Air Ride and Meteo. Between Brawl and Smash 4, he worked on Uprising.

Sakurai went straight from Smash 4 to Smash Ultimate when the latter's development concluded in 2016, so that's why we got Ultimate quicker.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Y'all may want a new Smash title.

But what we NEED is a new Kid Icarus title.

Or an HD port, I'm not picky, just desperate.

 

[Wunderwaft]

With the timing at hand I really can't see this next project as anything but Smash. Let me remind you all what our lad said in his Brawl video:

"The question now is what happens next time?” Sakurai asks. “I mean whatever comes after Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. One option would be to separate the series from its original creator, but for now at least, I can't imagine a Smash Bros. title without me. You might think that's a natural stance for someone in my role, but I say so speaking objectively.

"I feel the same way President Iwata did when we formed the team for Smash Bros. Brawl. At present, we don't have someone who can simply take the reins. Smash Bros. is a massive, important title for Nintendo, so it's fair to assume there will be another one at some point, but it's going to take some work to figure out exactly how to make that happen. For my part, I'd like to keep working with Nintendo however I'm able."

With the knowledge that his Brawl video was recorded during the pre-production phase of this next project, it seems cut and dry to me that he said this because he already was working in the next Smash game, hence his confidence on the matter.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

This timeline does fit with the reveal of Namco-Bandai having two new development teams made exclusively to work with Nintendo so the dev team will likely remain the same from Ultimate. This should keep development smooth as all veterans can just reuse assets, and they can focus development on newcomers.

I was going to ask how this was with them forming April 2022, but looking back, he does say that it was projected for April 2022, so it might not have been the case.

Still, being a year off is kinda sus.

 

[Dukefire]

For the next Nintendo Direct, you think it will appear this month or November?

 

[Opossum]

If this really is Smash, on one hand, it bodes poorly for Ashley Robins, which is sad.

On the other hand, if the current speculation that the team that did Another Code Recollection is doing another set for Hotel Dusk and Last Window (given all of the hints toward that in Recollection), the timing may work out for Kyle Hyde to get in as DLC.

A soul for a soul.

 

[TheLamerGamer]

For the next Nintendo Direct, you think it will appear this month or November?

I'm genuinely not expecting a direct until the next console at this stage, unless we get a game specific one for prime 4. Could be wrong but I really doubt they have that much left for the switch specifically. (Could do a partner showcase I suppose).