Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[dream1ng]

TL;DR on that one is that Ultimate made nearly 4 billion in gross across initial release, Plant, FP1, FP2 and all the Mii Costumes without trying to count something impossible like how many people bought a Switch for Smash or accessories. They most likely made 3 billion profit out of that, with the realistic lowest you could go for development costs being between 2 and 2.5 billion, the great majority of it spent during base game development.

I have no idea where you're getting any of these numbers from.

First of all, at $60 USD a pop across 25 million copies, that's one and a half billion USD in revenue. And yes, there are import costs in other countries which will inflate their MSRP, and there are sales, but those differences will not equal billions.

Then there's another $55 in the two passes, and to account for stuff that presumably sold in much fewer quantities, we'll add another $5 for paid PP and the costumes, which will mirror base at $60. However, the DLC attachment rate for games really only ranges between maybe 15-35%. Smash DLC is quite popular but it has an absolutely massive casual install base, so I'm going to be very generous and give the DLC a 30% attachment rate of those who spent $60 on DLC, when in reality it's probably less. That's another $450 million. Let's again be generous and bump it up to 2 bil total revenue, half your estimate.

But luckily your estimates for dev costs are also way too high as well. Like, way too high. Like, there have only been three games to surpass dev (& marketing) costs of above 300 million (being Cyberpunk, Star Citizen, and Red Dead 2) and you've set Ultimate development past the billion mark high.

So yes, Ultimate does make hand over fist money considering its revenue against its dev costs being substantially less than you are suggesting, but your numbers are way off, and Smash's lucrative capabilities still don't inherently give the team carte blanche when it comes to spending.

getting the green light to use someone's IP or character requires a contractual agreement of an amount paid (either a lump sum of cashola or royalties, most often lump sum)

It's almost certainly not a simple lump sum outside of base content, it's probably a smaller initial payment and then back-end profits on the specific character, which is why third-parties prefer being DLC than base, where those kind of divisions are much much easier.

That's usually how it works these days. Just look at the returning costumes. The first-party ones that were moved to base but the third-parties were retained as DLC and required re-purchasing because they prefer the back-end payment than the alternative. I would imagine it's more lucrative.

 

[ForsakenM]

I have no idea where you're getting any of these numbers from.

First of all, at $60 USD a pop across 25 million copies, that's one and a half billion USD in revenue. And yes, there are import costs in other countries which will inflate their MSRP, and there are sales, but those differences will not equal billions.

Then there's another $55 in the two passes, and to account for stuff that presumably sold in much fewer quantities, we'll add another $5 for paid PP and the costumes, which will mirror base at $60. However, the DLC attachment rate for games really only ranges between maybe 15-35%. Smash DLC is quite popular but it has an absolutely massive casual install base, so I'm going to be very generous and give the DLC a 30% attachment rate of those who spent $60 on DLC, when in reality it's probably less. That's another $450 million. Let's again be generous and bump it up to 2 bil total revenue, half your estimate.

But luckily your estimates for dev costs are also way too high as well. Like, way too high. Like, there have only been three games to surpass dev (& marketing) costs of above 300 million (being Cyberpunk, Star Citizen, and Red Dead 2) and you've set Ultimate development past the billion mark high.

So yes, Ultimate does make hand over fist money considering its revenue against its dev costs being substantially less than you are suggesting, but your numbers are way off, and Smash's lucrative capabilities still don't inherently give the team carte blanche when it comes to spending.


It's almost certainly not a simple lump sum outside of base content, it's probably a smaller initial payment and then back-end profits on the specific character, which is why third-parties prefer being DLC than base, where those kind of divisions are much much easier.

That's usually how it works these days. Just look at the returning costumes. The first-party ones that were moved to base but the third-parties were retained as DLC and required re-purchasing because they prefer the back-end payment than the alternative. I would imagine it's more lucrative.

Hot dayum do I have the response to this, but I just don't have the time and I should be asleep, stupid brain.

For now I'll just say I ****ed up by not mentioning 4 billion was taking out no money for resources (so gross, not net) and that it was going off the high-end of saying everyone bought every single DLC but I forgot to add that in my post because I was Russian. You also get kudos for bringing up the high likelihood of DLC getting a mix of lump sum and royalties, that makes sense and I missed that, but imo that just makes it overall less expensive for Nintendo at the negotiating table.

Oh, but when we get to the mistakes you made though...gonna be SPICY!

 

[Yamat08]

One thing I can say about the stork: it was the central focus of an absolutely gorgeous credits sequence (spoiler warning for a 25-year-old game).

Yoshi's Island: Credits and Ending

Credits and ending.

www.youtube.com

That aside, it's barely above the status of a background character. And sure, that was once true of the Nintendo princesses, but they at least got expanded roles over time. The stork, ironically, has only become even less relevant due to the Yoshi series as a whole steering away from the image of being a Mario prequel.

Additional Yoshi reps I always thought was based on the arbitrary quota of how each series (from 64 at least) should have at least 2 playable... In Yoshi's case though, when he quite literally is a Mario character only given his own series because he's spun off and done more of his own stuff... Yeah, I'm still in agreement that Yoshi should be a Mario character, but smash does a lot of stuff with series and putting them with certain series whilst other stuff gets treated differently...

Captain Falcon could easily have an echo, but an extra unique character from a pretty irrelevant series who'll be made from the ground up after smash has established itself as being able to properly represent characters from their series probably isn't too appealing in the devs eye's... Deathborn is probably the only one I could imagine working without it being a rehash of Falcon levels of originality... Does it sound cool, sure, but when you're placing resources into unique characters, understandable why the devs would avoid it.

Although Kamek for yoshi or mario or whatever could legitimately be cool as well as having a pretty large role in a lot of the games he appears in, even if he's not all that recurring in some....

As much as I agree that Yoshi should count as a Mario character more than anything, I'd say that the Yoshi series at least has potential in having a playable character..... just not the friggin' stork. I mean, half the cast of Tetris Attack seem more worthy of consideration (while the other half are pre-established Mario enemies...... though in either category, Poochy and Kamek, respectively, seem like the top contenders).

It's called Super Smash Bros. so I don't really see the issue of Super Mario Bros. getting a lot of stuff.

It being a platform fighter also alludes to something Mario is famous for; platformers.

Really, I just feel it's natural the franchise gets so much, even without thinking about how it's Nintendo's flagship IP.

I would be more willing to see your point if not for the fact that Smash has been screwing over the platforming aspect for the past two games now.

So here's a fun thinking/speculation game I've been thinking of.

Choose a series, any series that's represented in Smash Bros. You have been selected to "buff up" this series' representaion, with one caveat: You cannot add a playable character. You can add a stage, an Assist Trophy, some music, a boss battle, or even an item if possible. But you can't add a new playable fighter.

For example, if you choose the Splatoon series, you could add DJ Octavio as a boss, and Nasty Majesty, Riptide Rupture, Fins & Fiddles, and Ebb & Flow (Octo) for new music.

How do you choose to boost a series' representation?

Honestly, Pac-Man. I mean, it could at least restore some of the things it lost from Smash4, namely the Pac-Maze stage. Though, even the Spirits seem horribly lacking compared to the trophies (Smash4 at least gave each of the individual ghosts their own trophy). Also, while I don't mind the idea that Pac-Man seems less like a "Pac-Man rep" and more a "classic Namco rep", even that seems hampered by the fact that none of the Namco characters get a Spirit (aside from Galaga, which is an item anyway).

Though speaking of oldies, ROB is certainly a contender for being expanded upon. I mean, he is one of the only Smash characters without a proper home stage to speak of (one could argue for Dr. Mario and Bowser, though they at least have series-based stages...... conversely, if one were to advocate for home stages not being shared between two characters, that would leave a lot of secondary/tertiary series reps without one).

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I would be more willing to see your point if not for the fact that Smash has been screwing over the platforming aspect for the past two games now.

A bad platformer is still a platformer

 

[Geno Boost]

Apparently Sukapon has been modded to brawl with full moveset and he even has Skapokon alt skin it looks really awesome!

 

[Diddy Kong]

Sukapon, takes me back to the Brawl speculation days. It was argued Sukapon was basically Nintendos first fighting game character, and therefore a good candidate for a retro newcomer. I always supported that idea.

 

[PeridotGX]

Apparently Sukapon has been modded to brawl with full moveset and he even has Skapokon alt skin it looks really awesome!

I'm on a discord server with the guy making the mod (it's a public one, I don't know him), it's been exiting seeing it come together. This is his first mod, I believe.

 

[Dinoman96]

Life is hard for Nintendo characters that never got a proper worldwide release (Sukapon, Mike Jokes, etc)

Especially when you consider the region exclusive characters we end up did getting () pretty much got in by accident, per admitted by Sakurai.

 

[RileyXY1]

Life is hard for Nintendo characters that never got a proper worldwide release (Sukapon, Mike Jokes, etc)

Especially when you consider the region exclusive characters we end up did getting () pretty much got in by accident, per admitted by Sakurai.

Although Marth was on Sakurai's mind ever since the first Smash on N64.

 

[Dinoman96]

Although Marth was on Sakurai's mind ever since the first Smash on N64.

It's also worth pointing out that Smash 64 was a low budget title that originally was gonna be Japan only. That's probably how we also got Ness, considering that he too didn't have a proper worldwide release as Earthbound wasn't be available in PAL regions...that was, until the Wii U Virtual Console, in 2013.

 

[Guynamednelson]

the past two games now.

Since this means Brawl isn't "screwing over the platforming aspect" I suppose the games after it are screwing it over by not including platformer gameplay outside Smash Run, and not the game's physics?

 

[Diddy Kong]

It's also worth pointing out that Smash 64 was a low budget title that originally was gonna be Japan only. That's probably how we also got Ness, considering that he too didn't have a proper worldwide release as Earthbound wasn't be available in PAL regions...that was, until the Wii U Virtual Console, in 2013.

It's a big possiblity that's the case yeah, with Ness and all. But soon after Smash released, they knew it was gonna be successful. I'm European, so I remember well how I read in the local Nintendo gaming magazines how Smash 64 was pushed back for European release cause Pokemon didn't caught on here yet (probably had stuff to do with Germans, French and Spanish people wanting everything translated in their home languages). Seems they already had quote a good idea this game was gonna be huge.

Fire Emblem and MOTHER are easily amongst my favorite franchises that Smash introduced to me however. Very glad they choose to keep the respective characters in the games.

 

[Dyna]

I believe the next Smash will feel like a reboot, with new attacks and mechanics so the characters feel new and much more unique from each other, also much less characters.

 

[Geno Boost]

i always thought Sukapon and Rayman double reveal would be perfect 1 character for japan smash community and the other 1 for outside japan smash community.
basically it can be called as the Limbless Bros.

 

[Chuderz]

I'll loosely tie this to Smash discussion.

So another game that could really thrive using the Ultimate DX philosophy would be a potential Pokken Tournament 2.

Keeping the entire Pokken DX package intact (plus the DLC) would go a long way in making it a hot item.

The only thing I'd really want besides just a substantial addition to the content on top of the pre-existing content is the ability to set the fighting modes in a kind of advanced ruleset. If I want to exclusively play the game like a Tekken game then I should be able to. If want to play it exclusively like an arena fighter then I should be able to. If I want to go the classic route and have them both be activated for the fight on a set timer then I should be able to. I should also be able to set which fighting mode starts first in the instance where both are active and to some extent I should be able to set how often the timer oscillates between the two. Also the ability to turn off the assist Pokemon would be great.

A perfect Pokken Tournament 2 is really that simple. I mean besides rollback but I trust Bamco with that. It's really not that complicated actually.

Pokken DX + New sizable additions of content + Advanced ruleset options + Rollback netcode = Perfect Pokken Tournament 2

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Why does Bamco dislike rollback so much anyway??

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Why does Bamco dislike rollback so much anyway??

It's not that they dislike it. It's that they are notoriously terrible when it comes to online play.

Even Tekken 7, despite having had rollback implimented, still feels like garbage online.

 

[chocolatejr9]

It's not that they dislike it. It's that they are notoriously terrible when it comes to online play.

Even Tekken 7, despite having had rollback implimented, still feels like garbage online.

Well, at least they didn't outright reject it. Apparently, Sega outright refused to add rollback to that Virtua Fighter rerelease, despite that being the most requested feature.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I'll loosely tie this to Smash discussion.

So another game that could really thrive using the Ultimate DX philosophy would be a potential Pokken Tournament 2.

Keeping the entire Pokken DX package intact (plus the DLC) would go a long way in making it a hot item.

The only thing I'd really want besides just a substantial addition to the content on top of the pre-existing content is the ability to set the fighting modes in a kind of advanced ruleset. If I want to exclusively play the game like a Tekken game then I should be able to. If want to play it exclusively like an arena fighter then I should be able to. If I want to go the classic route and have them both be activated for the fight on a set timer then I should be able to. I should also be able to set which fighting mode starts first in the instance where both are active and to some extent I should be able to set how often the timer oscillates between the two. Also the ability to turn off the assist Pokemon would be great.

A perfect Pokken Tournament 2 is really that simple. I mean besides rollback but I trust Bamco with that. It's really not that complicated actually.

Pokken DX + New sizable additions of content + Advanced ruleset options + Rollback netcode = Perfect Pokken Tournament 2

Well I can't say "the roster is too big, balancing/bugtesting it+adding decent amounts of side content will make base Ultimate's workload look like Smash 64" to that, considering, you know, the Pokken roster isn't even Melee's size.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Well, at least they didn't outright reject it. Apparently, Sega outright refused to add rollback to that Virtua Fighter rerelease, despite that being the most requested feature.

They still managed to **** it up despite... was it one or two beta tests, if not more? Can't remember.

Either way, I don't trust Bamco when it comes to netcodes. A bad rollback is just the same as not having it.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Random thought: remember when the Yakuza guy said he didn't want Kiryu in fighting games because that would mean forcing Kiryu to attack women, something completely out of character for him? Would Smash be the exception due to the whole "it's not the actual characters, just toys based on them" thing?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Random thought: remember when the Yakuza guy said he didn't want Kiryu in fighting games because that would mean forcing Kiryu to attack women, something completely out of character for him? Would Smash be the exception due to the whole "it's not the actual characters, just toys based on them" thing?

I think that quote actually got properly contextualized into traditional fighting games, with Smash being cartoony enough to get a pass.

Wouldn't be the first time something got misinterpreted in translation from this guy specifically; remember the time he supposedly said only children play Switch games? That was mistranslation too.

 

[Mamboo07]

Random thought: remember when the Yakuza guy said he didn't want Kiryu in fighting games because that would mean forcing Kiryu to attack women, something completely out of character for him? Would Smash be the exception due to the whole "it's not the actual characters, just toys based on them" thing?

I remember that.

 

[dream1ng]

Random thought: remember when the Yakuza guy said he didn't want Kiryu in fighting games because that would mean forcing Kiryu to attack women, something completely out of character for him? Would Smash be the exception due to the whole "it's not the actual characters, just toys based on them" thing?

I think that quote actually got properly contextualized into traditional fighting games, with Smash being cartoony enough to get a pass.

Wouldn't be the first time something got misinterpreted in translation from this guy specifically; remember the time he supposedly said only children play Switch games? That was mistranslation too.

Nagoshi doesn't even work at Sega anymore so I imagine his opinions are now moot.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Nagoshi doesn't even work at Sega anymore so I imagine his opinions are now moot.

Yeah, but he also said he'd be fine with Kiryu in Smash if asked back when he did work for Sega.

SEGA Has No Plans To Bring Yakuza To Nintendo Switch Or To Super Smash Bros Ultimate

In an recent interview, IGN Japan managed to get to speak to Yakuza director Toshihiro Nagoshi about the possibility of the series making its way to Nintendo Switch! Check it out below: IGN: “Is th…

nintendosoup.com

And even the interview people like bringing up to say Kiryu was a no-go because no beating women, Nagoshi explicitly said there were "exceptions".

Whatever those exceptions are is purely speculative since he never elaborated, but I imagine cartoony fighters like Smash being less violent in nature compared to something like Tekken was probably one such exception.

 

[Perkilator]

Here's a much simpler roster maker I found online, for anyone who's interested in it.

 

[Gengar84]

I just beat Tales if Arise a couple weeks ago and loved it. I’m currently watching a Let’s Play from my favorite YouTuber (ShadyPenguinn) of the game since I enjoyed it so much.

I had an idea for a Tales rep that is a bit unusual, a duo of both Alphen and Shionne from Arise. I think their two play styles compliment each other really well for a transform style character in Smash. Alphen is an up-close fighter with powerful recoil attacks similar to Charizard’s Flare Blitz. Shionne is primarily a ranged fighter and has healing magic. I think that could make for a really interesting dynamic in Smash. Tales of Arise also has dual skills that could be incorporated into their Smash moveset as well.

 

[Slime Scholar]

Why does Bamco dislike rollback so much anyway??

not an expert on this topic but from what I understand it comes down to:
1) being difficult to retrofit into a game that has already been made.
2) it being a mainly western request, since most Japanese players and players in geographically smaller countries shouldn’t have as much trouble with connections in their region. So many Japanese devs are probably deaf to the problem.
3) There are SOME Switch-specific limitations. Rollback netcode runs simulations on each player’s machine to predict what they will do, and these simulations are run by the CPU. The Switch’s CPU is pretty dated, which is why Nick All-Stars Brawl allegedly doesn’t use rollback in games with more than 2 players. IIRC there was another fighting game where the Switch version’s rollback ran fewer simulations. Maybe this is what Sakurai was talking about when he said rollback would be too challenging?

Either way I hope it becomes more widely-adopted because it seems to make a a big difference for fighting games.

 

[Guynamednelson]

not an expert on this topic but from what I understand it comes down to:
1) being difficult to retrofit into a game that has already been made.
2) it being a mainly western request, since most Japanese players and players in geographically smaller countries shouldn’t have as much trouble with connections in their region. So many Japanese devs are probably deaf to the problem.
3) There are SOME Switch-specific limitations. Rollback netcode runs simulations on each player’s machine to predict what they will do, and these simulations are run by the CPU. The Switch’s CPU is pretty dated, which is why Nick All-Stars Brawl allegedly doesn’t use rollback in games with more than 2 players. IIRC there was another fighting game where the Switch version’s rollback ran fewer simulations. Maybe this is what Sakurai was talking about when he said rollback would be too challenging?

Either way I hope it becomes more widely-adopted because it seems to make a a big difference for fighting games.

Also isn't rollback harder to implement in Tekken due to its bigger movesets than 2D fighters? I swear I heard that somewhere, and that it's why Virtua Fighter 5: Ultimate Showdown had to deal with delay.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Also isn't rollback harder to implement in Tekken due to its bigger movesets than 2D fighters? I swear I heard that somewhere, and that it's why Virtua Fighter 5: Ultimate Showdown had to deal with delay.

That’s not true. Firstly the movesets aren’t much bigger or any bigger usually. And Ultimate Showdown does not have rollback unfortunately. Rollback takes work. Don’t get me wrong. A lot more work than delay. However if you try to implement it after already making delayed netcode for the game it’s near impossible. However they did it for MKX. 3D has nothing to do with it. It’s simply the fact that the netcode wasn’t focused on at launch therefor retroactively adding it is a pain in the ass.

 

[Sucumbio]

Rollback netcode can be thought of as the ability to accept inputs from the past as well as the present, rewinding and resimulating time to both handle inconsistencies and mask delay.



It has three requirements:

Deterministic game state
Hardware that can execute the game state at 10x speed for 10 frames of rollback, or so forth
Manual handling of all gameplay effects not suited to "rewinding"


#1 is not simple, but all fighting games (including Smash) already do this. This is how replays work. So really, this discussion is only about the other 2.





#2 is a a big one, huge. If you want to accept an input that was supposed to happen 6 frames ago, you have to be able to recalculate every part of those 6 frame--in 1 actual frame. So the hardware has to be capable of running the game X times faster than normal, where X is the total number of frames you want to be able to roll back. This is why putting rollback on an old game (running on CPUs 20 years more advanced) is far more feasible and requires less engineering work.



This is a great oversimplification, but Smash Ultimate runs at 60 frames per second. To be able to rollback an additional 7 frames, the CPU would need to be able to run the same game at 480 frames per second. This is a great feat for a modern game on modern hardware, and requires a lot of special engineering. For the humble Switch CPU, running a far more busy 8-player fighting game, it's a challenge that has simply not been done.





Even if you acheived that, it still leaves #3. The example I like to give is camera effects. You know all those zoom effects Ultimate does? Rolling back any sort of camera effect would be awful and nausiating. So all the zoom effects have to be re-tuned around your rollback delay, and even normal camera behavior would have to be rewritten to not jump around with the game state changes. Sound effects also have to get a massive amount of attention to be polished--cutting off and jumping into sound effects mid-frame is jarring and bad. Particles are often a problem, since particle systems often have non-deterministic components in their libraries.



This isn't even getting into the weird gameplay design decisions. The Mortal Kombat guys actually refuse to rollback game-ending hits as policy, due to how aggrivating that would be. This sleight of hand wouldn't work with Smash.



#3 is a ton of work; for the amount of content in Ultimate it would easily amount to several engineers working for at least 2 years. But even that is nothing compared to #2: making a 60fps Switch game run at 8x speed on a Switch.





tl;dr - Asking the devs to put rollback in Smash Ultimate is like asking your mechanic to put an electric engine in your tricked-out 2006 Chevy Silverado. It's just, not how any of that works--but if it's any consolation their future trucks will be electric.

This post basically summarizes it all.

 

[SKX31]

not an expert on this topic but from what I understand it comes down to:
1) being difficult to retrofit into a game that has already been made.
2) it being a mainly western request, since most Japanese players and players in geographically smaller countries shouldn’t have as much trouble with connections in their region. So many Japanese devs are probably deaf to the problem.
3) There are SOME Switch-specific limitations. Rollback netcode runs simulations on each player’s machine to predict what they will do, and these simulations are run by the CPU. The Switch’s CPU is pretty dated, which is why Nick All-Stars Brawl allegedly doesn’t use rollback in games with more than 2 players. IIRC there was another fighting game where the Switch version’s rollback ran fewer simulations. Maybe this is what Sakurai was talking about when he said rollback would be too challenging?

Either way I hope it becomes more widely-adopted because it seems to make a a big difference for fighting games.

IIRC it's ARMS that has retrofitted rollback. A budget version from what I've heard, but a rollback that works. Now I could be off, but I wouldn't be surprised. ARMS is much simpler and for that matter can handle all three of the criteria Thinkaman named.

1) FWIW ARMS is much more deterministic, but it's not a big deal as he said.

2) ARMS attacks take a while to be launched and reach their intended target. Toaster has an extension speed of 68 frames uncharged and 62 charged, or just over a second since both ARMS and Smash run on 60 FPS. Sure, this is time to max extension distance, but this happens pretty often in ARMS since, well, the whole point with ARMS is really long punches and grabs. The Toaster is also described as balanced by the official description. Guess which attacks in Smash compare to that? Yup, at max range Toaster is in the same general ballpark as 's Up Tilt (60 frames startup) and Warlock Punch (70 frames). Also Toaster has a retraction time of 14 frames, or about a quarter of a second. Recalculating 7 or so frames in ARMS is not a huge issue since that is Toaster travelling, what 1/10th of its max distance?

This is a stark contrast to Smash, which runs much, much quicker than ARMS. There are lots of attacks that come out absurdly fast, three examples:

* 's Frame 1 jab
* 's Frame 1 grenade pull.
* 's Frame 3 Up B.

Hell, the vast majority of attacks in Smash - including Smashes, such as 's Frame 15 F-Smash - are for all intents and purposes unreactable offline assuming normal reflexes (incl. a 6 frame reaction buffer). Rolling back 6-7 frames becomes a much more difficult task since a lot of attacks would appear "connect" only for the rollback to revert that (if not handled properly). It's certainly doable if Smash was built on more powerful hardware (platform fighters on computers like Brawlhalla have likewise really quick attacks and have rollback, albeit it's not an entirely 1-to-1 comparision I know), but not on the Switch's limited Tegra hardware or engine.

For casual play, if you add items on top of that you get even more stupidly quick attacks the engine needs to keep track of. While no one's probably bothered to look up Pokeball / AT frame data - there's not many who would be interested in that - I looked up Zero just for funsies and his trademark Ryuenjin appear to be in the general ballpark as 's Blazer (9 frames startup, just under 1/6th of a second). Add to that sudden item spawns randomly on the map, and the workload becomes a lot more in casual games (assuming no split solution depending on the type of game, albeit I'm not 100 % sure if Sakurai would go for that).

3) While I don't know how ARMS' rollback handles camera effects; the massive speed difference mentioned above, and the more static camera in ARMS make it much a simpler affair to keep track of. While final blows being "rolled back" would also suck in ARMS, the natural gameplay flow is much more forgiving than Smash is. I'm not sure how many particles are in an ARMS match either, but I'm feeling pretty confident saying that game doesn't have as many as Smash does.

Smash's really quick attacks does highlight how sound and particle effects would carefully need to be tinkered with a rollback solution. 7 frames is enough for 's Climbhazzard, 's Spin Attack and 's Whirling Fortress (and their sound / particle effects) to come out. All those three are fabled and often discussed reaction / out of shield attacks. Rolling back those attacks and their sound / particle effects is a really difficult task under these criteria. Same goes for a lot of items such as Pokeballs / ATs in more casual matches.

Those were most likely the "side effects" Sakurai hinted at. It's certainly possible Smash 6 could have rollback though - much more powerful system, for one, and Nintendo already has a fighting game using it - although the workload would still be a major undertaking at the very least. Also, the intensely negative reception to Ultimate's online could wind up giving a good reason.

 

[Yamat08]

IIRC it's ARMS that has retrofitted rollback. A budget version from what I've heard, but a rollback that works. Now I could be off, but I wouldn't be surprised. ARMS is much simpler and for that matter can handle all three of the criteria Thinkaman named.

1) FWIW ARMS is much more deterministic, but it's not a big deal as he said.

2) ARMS attacks take a while to be launched and reach their intended target. Toaster has an extension speed of 68 frames uncharged and 62 charged, or just over a second since both ARMS and Smash run on 60 FPS. Sure, this is time to max extension distance, but this happens pretty often in ARMS since, well, the whole point with ARMS is really long punches and grabs. The Toaster is also described as balanced by the official description. Guess which attacks in Smash compare to that? Yup, at max range Toaster is in the same general ballpark as 's Up Tilt (60 frames startup) and Warlock Punch (70 frames). Also Toaster has a retraction time of 14 frames, or about a quarter of a second. Recalculating 7 or so frames in ARMS is not a huge issue since that is Toaster travelling, what 1/10th of its max distance?

This is a stark contrast to Smash, which runs much, much quicker than ARMS. There are lots of attacks that come out absurdly fast, three examples:

* 's Frame 1 jab
* 's Frame 1 grenade pull.
* 's Frame 3 Up B.

Hell, the vast majority of attacks in Smash - including Smashes, such as 's Frame 15 F-Smash - are for all intents and purposes unreactable offline assuming normal reflexes (incl. a 6 frame reaction buffer). Rolling back 6-7 frames becomes a much more difficult task since a lot of attacks would appear "connect" only for the rollback to revert that (if not handled properly). It's certainly doable if Smash was built on more powerful hardware (platform fighters on computers like Brawlhalla have likewise really quick attacks and have rollback, albeit it's not an entirely 1-to-1 comparision I know), but not on the Switch's limited Tegra hardware or engine.

For casual play, if you add items on top of that you get even more stupidly quick attacks the engine needs to keep track of. While no one's probably bothered to look up Pokeball / AT frame data - there's not many who would be interested in that - I looked up Zero just for funsies and his trademark Ryuenjin appear to be in the general ballpark as 's Blazer (9 frames startup, just under 1/6th of a second). Add to that sudden item spawns randomly on the map, and the workload becomes a lot more in casual games (assuming no split solution depending on the type of game, albeit I'm not 100 % sure if Sakurai would go for that).

3) While I don't know how ARMS' rollback handles camera effects; the massive speed difference mentioned above, and the more static camera in ARMS make it much a simpler affair to keep track of. While final blows being "rolled back" would also suck in ARMS, the natural gameplay flow is much more forgiving than Smash is. I'm not sure how many particles are in an ARMS match either, but I'm feeling pretty confident saying that game doesn't have as many as Smash does.

Smash's really quick attacks does highlight how sound and particle effects would carefully need to be tinkered with a rollback solution. 7 frames is enough for 's Climbhazzard, 's Spin Attack and 's Whirling Fortress (and their sound / particle effects) to come out. All those three are fabled and often discussed reaction / out of shield attacks. Rolling back those attacks and their sound / particle effects is a really difficult task under these criteria. Same goes for a lot of items such as Pokeballs / ATs in more casual matches.

Those were most likely the "side effects" Sakurai hinted at. It's certainly possible Smash 6 could have rollback though - much more powerful system, for one, and Nintendo already has a fighting game using it - although the workload would still be a major undertaking at the very least. Also, the intensely negative reception to Ultimate's online could wind up giving a good reason.

I get the feeling that these are a lot of issues that a Switch successor could potentially resolve. However, could the performance still be an issue depending on how much they update the graphics?

The issue of updating graphics has come up a few times in the discussion for keeping Everyone Is Here, but I figure I'll ask, in everyone's honest opinion, should graphics even be an issue going forward? I personally wanna say it's not, but looking back, I honestly thought the graphics in Melee were good enough (which seems silly now, but at the time, the 3D that the GameCube was capable of handling felt like quite the massive leap from the N64's severely low poly-counts). Still, there should eventually come a point, if we're not there already, where graphics overall have seriously plateau'd and more emphasis should be put on performance. In fact, it's pretty much the reason Nintendo stopped focusing on graphical superiority in the first place way back with the Wii. Of course, several shortcomings have been cropping up with the Switch, though I guess part of that is due to the fact that it seems less like an upgraded WiiU and more like an updated 3DS that just happened to barely surpass the WiiU in capabilities.

 

[Guynamednelson]

The issue of updating graphics has come up a few times in the discussion for keeping Everyone Is Here, but I figure I'll ask, in everyone's honest opinion, should graphics even be an issue going forward? I personally wanna say it's not, but looking back, I honestly thought the graphics in Melee were good enough (which seems silly now, but at the time, the 3D that the GameCube was capable of handling felt like quite the massive leap from the N64's severely low poly-counts). Still, there should eventually come a point, if we're not there already, where graphics overall have seriously plateau'd and more emphasis should be put on performance. In fact, it's pretty much the reason Nintendo stopped focusing on graphical superiority in the first place way back with the Wii. Of course, several shortcomings have been cropping up with the Switch, though I guess part of that is due to the fact that it seems less like an upgraded WiiU and more like an updated 3DS that just happened to barely surpass the WiiU in capabilities.

Personally, I think the only reason why the Switch is barely stronger than the Wii U is because they didn't want to spend the money in case the Switch failed to be more successful. Now, they should have the funds to make a stronger piece of hardware, and even when the Wii and Switch were barely stronger than their predecessors, their Smash installments still tried to push their GPUs. You wouldn't have been able to have an all-Bowser FFA in Melee if you replaced its Bowser model with Brawl's, for example.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I personally wanna say it's not, but looking back, I honestly thought the graphics in Melee were good enough (which seems silly now, but at the time, the 3D that the GameCube was capable of handling felt like quite the massive leap from the N64's severely low poly-counts).

Being fair, if I recall, the GameCube actually had the best graphical power out of its generation since it was the one time Nintendo said "**** it, we'll play their game"

So of course GameCube games would look a lot better.

Personally, I think the only reason why the Switch is barely stronger than the Wii U is because they didn't want to spend the money in case the Switch failed to be more successful. Now, they should have the funds to make a stronger piece of hardware, and even when the Wii and Switch were barely stronger than their predecessors, their Smash installments still tried to push their GPUs. You wouldn't have been able to have an all-Bowser FFA in Melee if you replaced its Bowser model with Brawl's, for example.

Or maybe it's because the idea of a full console the size of a tablet is still a concept that has a lot more limitations due to the smaller size?

I bet if it was powerful enough to keep up with the competition, there'd be so much energy/heat covering so little space that you'd either not be able to hold it without burning your fingers or it would outright melt.

 

[Geno Boost]

i think it would be cool if next smash game would have this as a stage for pinball genre representation

its very iconic and almost everyone who had windows played it by both gamers and non gamers.
however is this game owned by microsoft?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Or maybe it's because the idea of a full console the size of a tablet is still a concept that has a lot more limitations due to the smaller size?

True, but I think trying to save funds helped out too.

i think it would be cool if next smash game should have this as a stage for pinball genre representation

its very iconic and almost everyone who had windows played it by both gamers and non gamers.
however is this game owned by microsoft?

Notice "Cinematronics" and "Maxis"?

 

[Sucumbio]

The biggest challenge Nintendo faces in their next hardware endeavor is going to depend greatly on whether or not they continue the hybrid model. If it's a handheld again we're going to see it use another mobile chipset to avoid overheating though 4k is definitely on the table with Nvidia DLSS. Buut if it's a standalone console then there's no reason why it couldn't compete with the PS5. Thing is the hybrid model has done so well it seems foolish not to keep it.

 

[Geno Boost]

True, but I think trying to save funds helped out too.

Notice "Cinematronics" and "Maxis"?

wait so i researched about it i think its currently owned by EA? right?

 

[Sucumbio]

wait so i researched about it i think its currently owned by EA? right?

EA owns MAXIS IPs, yes.

Shame because I loved Robosport on the Mac growing up.