Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gengar84]

I mean tbf, there are some things I expect from Smash that I simultaneously dread, such as Fire Emblem and Pokémon continuing to have "obligatory recent rep" and Xenoblade joining that club. I guess that's reason to speculate.

Anyway, have any of the Pokémon "clones" (using that term loosely considering some clone in terms of mon design only and others in gameplay) that have arisen in Pokémon's current "dark age" made a splash other than Palworld?

I don’t know how much of a splash they made but Nexomon and Coromon are both fun. Some of the Pokemon fan games like Xenoverse, Uranium, and Insurgence are fun too.

Xenoverse had an awesome looking regional Sharpedo variant:

 

[Kirbeh]

Anyway, have any of the Pokémon "clones" (using that term loosely considering some clone in terms of mon design only and others in gameplay) that have arisen in Pokémon's current "dark age" made a splash other than Palworld?

Not really, Palworld is currently the most notable monster collecting/Pokémon "clone." Other indie projects have been met with some success like Cassette Beasts or Coromon but they've remained niche and outside the view of more general audiences.

Edit:
'd by Gengar

 

[Stratos]

So you don't want it to happen.....but you want to speculate about it.....?

View attachment 384899


Ok, but why, then?
Not like there's any reason to assume it WOULD happen to begin with.

There are definitely some people who want a Temtem, I just don't know which one will be the most likely, but if it does I'd like to see it.

 

[Quillion]

There are definitely some people who want a Temtem, I just don't know which one will be the most likely, but if it does I'd like to see it.

I'm sure there are some people who want the Forest God from Squirrel Stapler in Smash, but that's no reason for it to be in Smash.

 

[Stratos]

I'm sure there are some people who want the Forest God from Squirrel Stapler in Smash, but that's no reason for it to be in Smash.

You're right.

 

[7NATOR]

So....

Indie Reps fellas? Any contenders for the new Smash. Those who likely or otherwise obsecure?

I've been a bit of Shovel Knight recently so the guy is the mind. He was Assist Trophy already for Ultimate with a full-fledge model along with Sans.

I think those 2 are the indies who the biggest chances of getting in. Sans is the very few where the antagonist is the most popular than even the protag.

Also Reimu surprisingly had a big backing as well.

If you asked me a couple days ago, I would have said Reimu and Sans

Now I still think Reimu might be in the next Smash, but for Sans, Low-key if we just going off Popular character options, Sans would definitely be one of the best choices they could make. As a Fighter however... I actually think it would be better to go with Frisk/Chara. I think they lend themselves to the fighting aspect more.

Shovel Knight and Hollow Knight have had Popular games, and among the Indie Space are well-Known characters. I'm also surprised that Shovel Knight and Hollow Knight did not get premium costumes in Ultimate, especially in Shovel Knight's case since he already had a Model in the game, like Bomberman.

Now Personally, I think they might still end up Premium Miis in the next game, but I'm definitely not going to discount them as Actual Fighter

I think Shantae would be interesting, and she is Popular with the (western) Smash fanbase, but I personally think she's not getting in anytime soon. Maybe though, cause she would be cool.

I think the biggest thing in Touhou/Reimu's favor over other Indies is Longevity (with only Shantae being comparable), and being from a Shoot-Em-up, having an interesting perspective to add to Smash



Also While not directly related to Smash, it is related to Bandai Namco who might be back on the Smash Project

Bandai Namco Says It Is "Narrowing Down" Titles, Recently Canceled 5 Games - GameSpot

 

[fogbadge]

Not really, Palworld is currently the most notable monster collecting/Pokémon "clone." Other indie projects have been met with some success like Cassette Beasts or Coromon but they've remained niche and outside the view of more general audiences.

Edit:
'd by Gengar

nice to see cassette beasts get a shoutout

 

[Kirbeh]

As far as indies go, there's no shortage of characters/series I'd like to see get in be it playable or otherwise.

Shantae, Shovel Knight, Hollow Knight, Blasphemous, Bloodstained, Gunvolt, Hades, Cave Story, Rivals of Aether, Pizza Tower, Touhou, etc. I could go on, but these are among the bigger/more well-known indies, after that we start moving into actual obscure territory like Pseudoregalia, Frogun, or Signalis that mainstream audiences definitely won't recognize. (And even then, I'd say the latter 3 have had decent/growing exposure too.)

As for which I think are actually likely for playable status? My honest answer is none. I see Undertale/Deltarune, Shovel Knight, Shantae, Hades and maybe one or two others get in again with minor content additions like more spirits, mii costumes, etc. but not much else.

At best I could see U/D get a character via a Snake situation if Toby Fox is lucky and gains favor with Nintendo/Sakurai but I honestly don't know what character they'd go for. My best guess would be a toss-up between Sans or Kris.

So, in terms of likelihood, I do honestly think U/D has the best shot, but I'm not really expecting it either.

 

[7NATOR]

As far as indies go, there's no shortage of characters/series I'd like to see get in be it playable or otherwise.

Shantae, Shovel Knight, Hollow Knight, Blasphemous, Bloodstained, Gunvolt, Hades, Cave Story, Rivals of Aether, Pizza Tower, Touhou, etc. I could go on, but these are among the bigger/more well-known indies, after that we start moving into actual obscure territory like Pseudoregalia, Frogun, or Signalis that mainstream audiences definitely won't recognize. (And even then, I'd say the latter 3 have had decent/growing exposure too.)

As for which I think are actually likely for playable status? My honest answer is none. I see Undertale/Deltarune, Shovel Knight, Shantae, Hades and maybe one or two others get in again with minor content additions like more spirits, mii costumes, etc. but not much else.

At best I could see U/D get a character via a Snake situation if Toby Fox is lucky and gains favor with Nintendo/Sakurai but I honestly don't know what character they'd go for. My best guess would be a toss-up between Sans or Kris.

So, in terms of likelihood, I do honestly think U/D has the best shot, but I'm not really expecting it either.

I forgot about Gunvolt. I've actually played both 1 and 2 and they were both fun games. I'm also guessing he'd be both a Zoner and a Anti-Zoner with the Tagging System if he ever got in

I don't think He'd get in but he would be electrifying. Now for Undertale/Deltarune, I think the best thing about Toby Fox is he can actually speak Japanese, enough to have a Friendly session with Sakurai himself. So at the least the language barrier wouldn't be a factor

 

[superprincess]

Shovel Knight, Shantae and Undertale are the frontrunners for an Indie rep. I think it's obvious.

The question is, will an indie character happen at all? I'd say no.

 

[Kirbeh]

I forgot about Gunvolt. I've actually played both 1 and 2 and they were both fun games. I'm also guessing he'd be both a Zoner and a Anti-Zoner with the Tagging System if he ever got in

I don't think He'd get in but he would be electrifying. Now for Undertale/Deltarune, I think the best thing about Toby Fox is he can actually speak Japanese, enough to have a Friendly session with Sakurai himself. So at the least the language barrier wouldn't be a factor

That's one of the reasons why I think U/D is a contender for most likely among the indies. Toby already has a good working relationship with both Sakurai and Nintendo and his game/s is/are recognized worldwide, including a healthy Japanese following. Plus, being a fluent Japanese speaker and actual resident of Japan makes negotiations much easier. He regularly collaborates with other devs in Japan like TPC as well as artists in the music industry.

He's well established in Japan and has a global audience. A huge leg up not just over other indies and arguably even some bigger (not BIG but moderate sized) western studios/dev teams.

I still think an indie is less likely overall, but if I had to bet on one it'd be U/D. It's not my preferred choice by any means but it's definitely earned it in my eyes.

 

[Garteam]

One of the biggest barriers facing indies generally is Smash's preference towards established franchises with long histories when selecting third parties. With the exceptions of Bayonetta, which is largely in Smash due to being an honourary Nintendo franchise at this point, and Minecraft, which is the largest video game in the world, every third party was approximately 20 years at the time they were added to Smash and their Smash inclusions primarily drew from entries that were at least a decade old.

Unless it's a new entry that has proven to be particularly popular in a long-running series, like Persona 5 or Dragon Quest XI, Smash seems to mostly avoid giving newer, non-Nintendo games representation in the form of fighters. Instead, these series seem to be the basis for Mii Costumes and post-launch spirits.

 

[Zerp]

Shovel Knight, Shantae and Undertale are the frontrunners for an Indie rep. I think it's obvious.

The question is, will an indie character happen at all? I'd say no.

I unironically think Sans is among the most likely characters in general. Mainly because I really doubt they were expecting that much buzz from a Mii costume, even if it was a new kind. Probably took them by complete surprise, dude basically generated as much interest as an actual character would lol. Combining that with how hugely popular Undertale is in Japan and Toby's relationship with Nintendo... yeah I could see said indie character happening.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Like yeah, when you look at the pattern shared between the third-parties in Smash the ball absolutely isn't in the court of western indie-titles.

On the other hand Toby Fox has absolutely hit it big enough to the point he can shatter that entry-barrier.

The Sans costume basically overshadowed Terry's reveal as a fighter. It would kinda foolish to pass up on potential earthshattering inclusions due to some lack of seniority.

(Not saying that nicher but influential characters like Terry don't have as much value but you get what I mean)

 

[Speed Weed]

In other news:

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Elden Ring is all FromSoft's now. Not sure whether Dark Souls is still with Bamco, but you may take out of this what you will when it comes to Smash

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Y'all are not ready for Freddy....

....is what I would say if more than Secruity Breach and the movie were released in Japan.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I prefer this Freddi tbh.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Y'all are not ready for Freddy....

....is what I would say if more than Secruity Breach and the movie were released in Japan.

feel sorry for whoever's first experience with FNAF was security breach lol, yeesh

still kinda wild that even though FNAF is absolutely massive it's not massive in the right parts of the world to be considered likely.

I prefer this Freddi tbh.

View attachment 384913

I'd love a satirical edutainment game rep that "attacks" by just doing their thing and observing the world around them, unaware of the damage they're causing. Unless it's an antagonist like I. M. Meen, who would honestly be the most interesting out of all the available options for this genre. He's the only one I'd really want, too.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

feel sorry for whoever's first experience with FNAF was security breach lol, yeesh

still kinda wild that even though FNAF is absolutely massive it's not massive in the right parts of the world to be considered likely.

Don't get me wrong, it has had a cult following in Japan long before Security Breach and was a popular subject for cosplay and merchandise.

Problem is none of the games got localized until Security Breach and Smash....kinda completely ignores anything not released in Japan even if I guess you could make an argument for Steam releases counting.

 

[fogbadge]

on the topic of indies, hat kid anyone?

 

[timrtabor1234]

As far as indies go, there's no shortage of characters/series I'd like to see get in be it playable or otherwise.

Shantae, Shovel Knight, Hollow Knight, Blasphemous, Bloodstained, Gunvolt, Hades, Cave Story, Rivals of Aether, Pizza Tower, Touhou, etc. I could go on, but these are among the bigger/more well-known indies, after that we start moving into actual obscure territory like Pseudoregalia, Frogun, or Signalis that mainstream audiences definitely won't recognize. (And even then, I'd say the latter 3 have had decent/growing exposure too.)

As for which I think are actually likely for playable status? My honest answer is none. I see Undertale/Deltarune, Shovel Knight, Shantae, Hades and maybe one or two others get in again with minor content additions like more spirits, mii costumes, etc. but not much else.

At best I could see U/D get a character via a Snake situation if Toby Fox is lucky and gains favor with Nintendo/Sakurai but I honestly don't know what character they'd go for. My best guess would be a toss-up between Sans or Kris.

So, in terms of likelihood, I do honestly think U/D has the best shot, but I'm not really expecting it either.

As I've said in other places I think indies run into a similar issue as Zelda side characters where they don't stay in the spotlight long enough to get into Smash style big roster games in non-cameo contexts. Like if you went back in time and asked someone about an indie scene character during Brawl era you'd probably get people saying Alien Hominid, Tim from Braid, Meat Boy, or one of the other big Newsgrounds scene characters. Do the same during early 3DS/Wii U speculation and I'd be Shovel Knight or Shantae. I guess those two did stick around a bit for Ultimate speculation due to the remakes/DLC stories/spin offs but do we have anything still going for those coming up? Like do we have that GBA Shantea beta thing coming to Switch/Switch 2? As an aside wild to me we don't have a conventional Shovel Knight 2 by now.

EDIT: Oh, and its weird we overlook Japanese indie games in this discussion despite lower workload from Sakurai's perspective. Maybe that brings up another issue with indie characters though. Independently made media tends to be much more regionalized in nature.

 

[Kirbeh]

As I've said in other places I think indies run into a similar issue as Zelda side characters where they don't stay in the spotlight long enough to get into Smash style big roster games in non-cameo contexts. Like if you went back in time and asked someone about an indie scene character during Brawl era you'd probably get people saying Alien Hominid, Tim from Braid, Meat Boy, or one of the other big Newsgrounds scene characters. Do the same during early 3DS/Wii U speculation and I'd be Shovel Knight or Shantae. I guess those two did stick around a bit for Ultimate speculation due to the remakes/DLC stories/spin offs but do we have anything still going for those coming up? Like do we have that GBA Shantea beta thing coming to Switch/Switch 2? As an aside wild to me we don't have a conventional Shovel Knight 2 by now.

EDIT: Oh, and its weird we overlook Japanese indie games in this discussion despite lower workload from Sakurai's perspective. Maybe that brings up another issue with indie characters though. Independently made media tends to be much more regionalized in nature.

Outside of stuff like Touhou and Cave Story, I honestly don't think I know of many Japanese indies. That does swing back around to being too unfamiliar outside of Japan which we know is taken into account. Just as something like Castle Crashers might not be on the radar over there, there's likely plenty of niche cult classics that never make it outside Japan that likely wouldn't be taken into consideration either.

I suppose that narrows it down to a handful of series with moderate success in both the east and west, but that just brings us back to U/D, Touhou, Cave Story, etc. And beloved as Touhou and Cave Story are, they're still far more niche that something as pervasive as Undertale/Deltarune.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

This is more of an indirect connection to Smash but given the talk of third parties and discussion about games on the next Nintendo system, I think it is relevant:

Basically, a lot of the AAA industry in the West in struggling due to rising costs not being matched by similar profits, and the layoffs in the last nine months have sadly reflected that. Talk of a potential crash (or at least a severe market adjustment) has been running rampant and it does make me wonder if even beyond the language issue and the need to appeal to Japanese fans if Nintendo to some degree has greater ease in working with various companies back home for something like Smash because they're on average in a safer and more stable position than their Western counterparts.

Konami's kept costs down while largely having good numbers from Yu-Gi-Oh, eBaseball, Momotaro Dentetsu, Capcom has had their expensive projects generally met with big success, Sega's diversifying their types of games via the Power Surge, and the likes of Koei Tecmo as well as Bandai Namco haven't had too many struggles with most of their releases. Square Enix is a semi-exception but even Final Fantasy VII media and DQXII can help offset the failures of Avengers and Forspoken long term.

With Smash and especially ports to Switch/Switch 2 I'm curious if indeed Nintendo tends to view stronger relationships with certain Western companies with selective interest because (even beyond the lack of power and/or third party history on their consoles) there's a bit too much unsteadiness there.

 

[timrtabor1234]

This is more of an indirect connection to Smash but given the talk of third parties and discussion about games on the next Nintendo system, I think it is relevant:

View attachment 384923

Basically, a lot of the AAA industry in the West in struggling due to rising costs not being matched by similar profits, and the layoffs in the last nine months have sadly reflected that. Talk of a potential crash (or at least a severe market adjustment) has been running rampant and it does make me wonder if even beyond the language issue and the need to appeal to Japanese fans if Nintendo to some degree has greater ease in working with various companies back home for something like Smash because they're on average in a safer and more stable position than their Western counterparts.

Konami's kept costs down while largely having good numbers from Yu-Gi-Oh, eBaseball, Momotaro Dentetsu, Capcom has had their expensive projects generally met with big success, Sega's diversifying their types of games via the Power Surge, and the likes of Koei Tecmo as well as Bandai Namco haven't had too many struggles with most of their releases. Square Enix is a semi-exception but even Final Fantasy VII media and DQXII can help offset the failures of Avengers and Forspoken long term.

With Smash and especially ports to Switch/Switch 2 I'm curious if indeed Nintendo tends to view stronger relationships with certain Western companies with selective interest because (even beyond the lack of power and/or third party history on their consoles) there's a bit too much unsteadiness there.

If we are being a tad morbid wouldn't this change actually be in favor of more western stuff since you could in theory have Nintendo with leverage and compaines needing $$$/"free" (still gotta pay a lawyer to write up the contract so not fully free) PR?

 

[Shinuto]

In other news:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Elden Ring is all FromSoft's now. Not sure whether Dark Souls is still with Bamco, but you may take out of this what you will when it comes to Smash

Wow, sure wish Monolith Soft could do the same for Xenosaga.

As I've said in other places I think indies run into a similar issue as Zelda side characters where they don't stay in the spotlight long enough to get into Smash style big roster games in non-cameo contexts. Like if you went back in time and asked someone about an indie scene character during Brawl era you'd probably get people saying Alien Hominid, Tim from Braid, Meat Boy, or one of the other big Newsgrounds scene characters. Do the same during early 3DS/Wii U speculation and I'd be Shovel Knight or Shantae. I guess those two did stick around a bit for Ultimate speculation due to the remakes/DLC stories/spin offs but do we have anything still going for those coming up? Like do we have that GBA Shantea beta thing coming to Switch/Switch 2? As an aside wild to me we don't have a conventional Shovel Knight 2 by now.

EDIT: Oh, and its weird we overlook Japanese indie games in this discussion despite lower workload from Sakurai's perspective. Maybe that brings up another issue with indie characters though. Independently made media tends to be much more regionalized in nature.

I don't know why you're throwing Shantae under the bus here, only to immediately destroy your own argument with evidence in her favor AGAINST your argument.

 

[DarthEnderX]

The question is, will an indie character happen at all? I'd say no.

I feel like Mii costumes and Spirits are the appropriate level of representation for indies.

 

[BritishGuy54]

I can see some more indie games getting Mii costumes in the next Smash game. Though it doesn’t really feel like we’ve had the next Undertale or Cuphead yet, so I really do not have a concrete answer on who.

The AAA games market is in a rocky position right now, and that bubble may burst sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nintendo decided to give more depth to existing third parties like Sega or Capcom, rather than bring in new AAA companies next game.

And even with that existing group of third parties in Smash, I think the general opinion is that Square Enix are the hardest to work with (likely due to licensing). Konami I guess may still have some stigma from the fanbase due to the Kojima debacle.

This may point towards a different Smash than what most people on more casual social media sites are expecting. One that downscales scope in favour of depth in its roster. (Sorry if I come back to this point too often, it’s just what I think could happen.)

Though I do wonder a few things:

How will Sakurai and co. deal with the ESRB (and other rating organisations such as PEGI or CERO) when building a new game? We have seen even Nintendo spirits be censored with the recent spirit events, and the Mii costumes in FP2 also had some censorship.

What is the general opinion on if gacha games (i.e. Azur Lane, Blue Archive, etc.) get some form of representation in Smash (spirits, fighter, etc.)? I feel like it may cause a schism in the ‘anti-anime swordsman’ crowd, and part of me thinks they’re a bit too risqué for Smash. But they are popular in the East, and do have global fans and servers.

 

[Laniv]

Speaking of indies...

Can you imagine?

 

[PF9]

I also propose Charizard being separated from Pokemon Trainer like in SSB4 while Trainer continues to have Squirtle and Ivysaur, each with their own Final Smash.

 

[superprincess]

I also propose Charizard being separated from Pokemon Trainer like in SSB4 while Trainer continues to have Squirtle and Ivysaur, each with their own Final Smash.

This is such a questionable take that I see all the time and I'm just wondering why people think it's a good idea... Why would they break the starters up when they were explicitly conceived in Brawl as a trio that represents 1) the three starter types that are the same in every single Pokémon game (Grass/Fire/Water) and 2) the three stages of evolution? Not to mention that the three Pokémon were balanced relative to each other, so breaking them up would require way too much work to re-balance them into being unique fighters. Work that could be directed towards other vets that need it more than an arbitrarily split Squirtle and Ivysaur.

Why would they go through all that hassle, break up an iconic trio, and ruin a perfectly good moveset design? Just so each monster can have its own Down Special and FS? I'll pass. That's not what the character was meant to do. Don't fix what ain't broke!

 

[MasterCheef]

I feel like Mii costumes and Spirits are the appropriate level of representation for indies.

I would love at least 1 indie projectile character.

 

[Kirbeh]

Though I do wonder a few things:

How will Sakurai and co. deal with the ESRB (and other rating organisations such as PEGI or CERO) when building a new game? We have seen even Nintendo spirits be censored with the recent spirit events, and the Mii costumes in FP2 also had some censorship.

What is the general opinion on if gacha games (i.e. Azur Lane, Blue Archive, etc.) get some form of representation in Smash (spirits, fighter, etc.)? I feel like it may cause a schism in the ‘anti-anime swordsman’ crowd, and part of me thinks they’re a bit too risqué for Smash. But they are popular in the East, and do have global fans and servers.

I think they'll handle ratings boards the same way they have already. If anything, they're already likely more careful after the apparent headache Sakurai had with Smash 4. They'll probably aim for an A/E10 rating again so I'm guessing we'll see a higher level of censorship or outright omissions depending on whether CERO has gotten stricter or more lax.

With that in mind I see zero chance for series like Azure Lane or Blue Archive. I'm personally not against them but I don't see any way those games get repped as things currently are. I personally quite like the handful of gachas I've played (FEH, PEX, Nikke and Azure Lane) but they occupy a niche that I kind of doubt is on their radar or if they're aware it's likely not a priority.

The most I can see for gacha is Nintendo throwing in a spirit or two for FEH or Dragalia Lost (if they even remember the latter.)

Perhaps the argument could be made for Genshin Impact or another MiHoYo game given they're much more mainstream, so I suppose that's the only other example that I'd personally see as potentially plausible.

I also propose Charizard being separated from Pokémon Trainer like in SSB4 while Trainer continues to have Squirtle and Ivysaur, each with their own Final Smash.

But why tho?

Zard was my secondary in Smash 4, and he's still the most fun of the trio to play as imo, but as much as I miss Rock Smash, I don't see the need to break up the Trainer team when that's the intent behind their design.

That said, I would be in favor of allowing the player to play solo versions of the characters. Just so long as it doesn't come at the cost of breaking up the team. That way both types of players can choose their preference.
In this case I do think it'd be worth it to make a new Down Special for and restore Rock Smash. We lose nothing and get more options.

I would love at least 1 indie projectile character.

I know you meant a zoner but the first thing that came to mind was having an indie character get in as a throwable item.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

The true indie rep we need.

 

[Kirbeh]

The true indie rep we need.

View attachment 384935

Truly goated.

 

[Perkilator]

The modding scene continues to get more and more impressive.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Kirbeh]

The modding scene continues to get more and more impressive.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

I honestly haven't kept up with the modding scene since PM ended. I'd see a couple skins/recolors for Smash 4 every once in a while, and then really crazy Brawl stuff like Merkava from UnderNight pop up randomly but I'm completely in the dark on the Ultimate modding scene. It'll be cool if someday we see it progress to the level of Brawl or Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3's modding scene.

 

[Ivander]

I honestly haven't kept up with the modding scene since PM ended. I'd see a couple skins/recolors for Smash 4 every once in a while, and then really crazy Brawl stuff like Merkava from UnderNight pop up randomly but I'm completely in the dark on the Ultimate modding scene. It'll be cool if someday we see it progress to the level of Brawl or Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3's modding scene.

While I don't think it's reached anywhere near UMvC3 levels of the amount of characters they pump out, I at least know of 2 that have their own animations implemented, being Goku and Shantae, although Shantae still shares a few moves and animations with Zelda. Aerith would be the 3rd one I've seen with their own animations.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Sorry for being a little off-topic, but i wanna see a Terry Bogard mod for UMvC3. or any SNK character.

Oh, and a Tatsunoko character too.

 

[Kirbeh]

Sorry for being a little off-topic, but i wanna see a Terry Bogard mod for UMvC3. or any SNK character.

Oh, and a Tatsunoko character too.

I just want CvS3 or a new PXZ that's just a fighting game.

 

[Louie G.]

In respect to the indie discussion, and as cliche as it is to say, Undertale is so far beyond every other candidate that it's really not a contest. I'm fairly certain that if we get any character from an indie game, it will be Sans. I do specify Sans because he's easily the most popular choice and the one who they opted to make into a costume in the first place... one that inevitably sold the best out of any Mii Costume... but if you wanna slot in Frisk or Papyrus or whoever then go ahead.

Undertale's worldwide success is immense. It is so popular in Japan that, as cited in Toby's recent newsletter, they're simultaneously developing the Japanese translation of the next chapter of Deltarune presumably for a same day release. Toby Fox has reached somewhat of a minor celebrity status with a Famitsu column talking about localized games. I would go as far to say that out of any of the big western pulls right now (minus maybe like, Fortnite or Apex Legends?) Undertale has the most Japanese appeal. That's not even taking into account its standing against other indies... like, just in general. Shovel Knight and Shantae are left in the dust, I'm sorry to say. What they have currently is the extent of what I'm seeing for them moving forward.

I think Sans has a great chance of being playable. If he's not, I think Undertale will still see a significant increase in representation some way or another. It's one of the most notable and widely popular success stories of the last decade, in a game that probably serves to add more contemporary third party characters, and Toby Fox is in great standing with Nintendo and Sakurai already. And Undertale, in its eight years, has not really dipped in popularity whatsoever. I agree that indie games sometimes have a bit of a "shelf life", Shovel Knight support is not what it used to be, but Undertale is about as relevant now as it was when it released due to great branding, its viral presence and the rollout of its sequel.

It would be very difficult to argue such a persistent and definitive game in the online landscape between both western and Japanese audiences being a flash in the pan... I could definitely understand it during Ultimate, but now a whole four years later I think Undertale has made more than enough of a case for itself as an evergreen classic. That doesn't confirm Sans or an Undertale character in its own right, but I think it ought to be considered when weighing our options for "indie reps". One of the perks of an indie character is that negotiations are dealt with on a smaller scale, but most of the available characters are also on a smaller scale of notoriety or international appeal. That's why it's easy to get those ATs and spirits in, but I don't know if they perceived our current indie representation to be of a necessary scale. If Undertale is just as easy logistically and about 5x as popular, then that's a slam dunk I think. I take issue with the idea that it ought to remain at this supplemental level simply because it's classified as indie - by all other means, it's as popular as several third parties already playable.

Side note, this is neglecting the likes of Reimu when discussing Japanese popularity. Undertale and Touhou naturally have a lot in common, and even share the role of its music being a staple of rhythm arcade machines now. Both are wildly popular. I personally don't think Reimu has the necessary official western presence to be a strong contender but I figured it was worth pointing out I kinda put her in her own little box outside of the typical indie talk.