Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[I.D.]

Kinda stinks seeing so many people give up before the pass even started. I thought a first-party getting in as fighter #5 after months and months "only third-parties, only third-parties, only third-parties," being played on loop would be enough to turn the community on its edge.

It's not just third-parties you know. Byleth opened the door to Nintendo promo-picks.

 

[Kokiden]

Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 5 COMING OUT??
*Byleth gets announced*
Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 6 COMING OUT??

I think people enjoy speculating more than playing the actual game at times.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Kinda stinks seeing so many people give up before the pass even started. I thought a first-party getting in as fighter #5 after months and months "only third-parties, only third-parties, only third-parties," being played on loop would be enough to turn the community on its edge.

Instead, all I'm seeing is more of the same. "Only third-parties, only new franchises, Byleth is probably our only Nintendo character."

That's because we didn't get just any first party. We got a first party that was from recent times and specifically saved to be DLC.

So yeah... that's not exactly a source of hope for fans of first parties that became Spirits or ATs.

 

[Ridrool64]

I don't expect a second five month wait for the next Challenger Pack. The biggest reason why is because it would frustrate people a lot to go an entire set of four months with no significant (headliner) Smash news, which also causes the buzz to go away from Smash. That's the gap between Joker's reveal and release, but we haven't had a series of four months with absolutely nothing but Spirit Events and Smash Ultimate weekly events. More "outs", but nobody solidly in for that long seems rather strange.

While Joker had a six month reveal gap between him and Hero/Banjo, Joker and Piranha Plant also had yet to release. Thus, something major happened January, February, and April of last year regarding Smash, even though we were still in the dark about Brave. This time we already have all the major announcements caught up.

Unlike Smash 4 IIRC, Smash Ultimate doesn't do content alone packs. Everything comes in the form of Challenger Packs. Aside from free stuff like post-launch Spirit events, nothing happens between Challenger Packs.

Besides, this time I think the trend of double reveals at E3 is over. I think we will get an April Fighter Announcement in the same vein as Byleth, and E3 will only have a single Fighter. And there wasn't really a trend: since Daisy was an Echo Fighter and we'd known about Inklings since March, E3 2018 only had one unique newcomer to show, Ridley.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I've pretty much accepted that Rex will never happen and this is also unlikely as hell since spirits disconfirm characters and upgrades aren't in the cards at the moment (I really want them but I'm definitely not holding my breath), but my big pipe dream for season 2 is Mecha Fiora being chosen as a promotional pick for Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition.

God, that would just be ****ing amazing.

Personally I feel like rex is gonna end up like Chrom, a character who's passed over in one game but shows up in the next.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If I had to take a guess on the announcements for the rest of the fighters. This is what I predict.

FP6 and FP7: E3 2020
FP8: Week the next amiibos release
FP9 and FP10: E3 2021
FP11: Week the next amiibos release

 

[Mamboo07]

Hi guys, what's going on her-

....What just happened on the previous pages?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Personally I feel like rex is gonna end up like Chrom, a character who's passed over in one game but shows up in the next.

He truly will get his chance another day...

meanwhile... Elma intensifies

 

[Dust319]

Lu Bu in ROTK/History obviously isn't viable. But the Lu Bu in Dynasty Warriors is a video game character. In the same vein Joker uses Arsene and Dracula is a boss due to Castlevania. This is their interpretation of a classic figure.

Even though by this logic, Geralt, who I see get requested now and then shouldn't be eligible too due to Witcher being based off books.

Dynasty Warriors is basically Koei's idea of Romance of the Three Kingdoms instead of ROTK itself. And if I remember right, ROTK is public domain and characters like Arsene and Dracula are public domain too so the versions of them made specifically for their games are qualified. If it was straight up ROTK Lu Bu then I agree but this is Dynasty Warriors Lu Bu.

I’ve explained this in the simplest way I can think of and still this idea that DW’s interpretation gives it a pass.
It’s not a rights issue.

Dracula is not even pretending to be based on the original source material and Castlevania follows protagonists not in that source material anyway. Also Dracula is not a Fighter.

Arsene in Persona is An allusion to the character of the same name, but His being a persona drastically alters any direct connection to the source material you could have. Also, Arsene is not the Fighter, Joker is.

Dynasty Warriors is a loud and hectic interpretion of the source material. Every Dynasty Warriors game is retelling the same story, and following the same characters who were in that source material in some fashion or other.

The characters are not original video game characters.

I am adamant about this not because I dislike Lu Bu, or anyone in ROTK or games based on it, rather I believe the men and women they are based on deserve better than to be thrown into a stage to fight with cartoon characters!

tldr: in bold above

 

[Deleted member]

I'm sorry, but saying there was a pattern for this DLC pass feels like someone explaining what a toaster, potato, and screwdriver all have in common.

Your explanation doesn't really hone in on specific characters. "Different groups and fanbases as well as being from series of different impact or popularity as well different eras," is something that could apply to literally every character.

Dunno if I expressed wrong, but I simply mean that we can expect more characters in the vein of what we got now rather than a specific type.

To put in as an example, I could expect something in the vein of 2B alongside Heihachi, Amateratsu, Frogger, a new character that debuts this year or next one from Nintendo and Sora for example. Which would be similar newcomers that have appeared in the last 2 dlc periods. Just a diverse cast of characters rather than fan favorites or "promo" characters only.

 

[Cosmic77]

It's not just third-parties you know. Byleth opened the door to Nintendo promo-picks.

Most of our options have already been implemented as Spirits though, which is why a lot of people are split on whether or not Spirits deconfirm.

I mean, unless Gooigi, a new New Horizons animal noob, and maybe MAYBE BotW 2 characters are on the table, they'll have to go back to franchises with Spirits already in Smash for their promotional picks. Same thing pretty much applies to all non-promotional characters too, seeing how anyone who had a chance already has a Spirit and this is where Porky and Sylux supporters come to correct me.

That's because we didn't get just any first party. We got a first party that was from recent times and specifically saved to be DLC.

So yeah... that's not exactly a source of hope for fans of first parties that became Spirits or ATs.

Nothing in the first pass was gonna give us answers anyway. Sakurai already knew the lineup, and he probably would've left out certain Spirits who would eventually get a fighter in the first pass (Unless that character was so notable that their absence made things look suspicious).

 

[Wunderwaft]

Kinda stinks seeing so many people give up before the pass even started. I thought a first-party getting in as fighter #5 after months and months of "only third-parties, only third-parties, only third-parties," being played on loop would be enough to turn the community on its edge.

Instead, all I'm seeing is more of the same. "Only third-parties, only new franchises, Byleth is probably our only Nintendo character."

I do think we'll get a first party character, I'm just not sure if it's gonna be a Xeno rep. Theoretically this time the Xeno series has good timing now since there's an upcoming game. My only gripe is that it's a remake and Nintendo might not care enough to push for it because Shulk is already in Smash. I dunno, I hope I'm wrong and Rex makes it in despite everything going against him.

 

[Roberk]

I don't see many options for more first-party DLC, Three Houses and Astral Chain were the top contenders but AC got Sprit'd and Three Houses actually did get in Smash. Meanwhile, there's not much else unless BOTW2 has an important character who doesn't have to share the spotlight with others like the Champions. Byleth is the odd one out because at the end of the day Sakurai wants to go as far as he can with third parties making it the Ultimate crossover.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I dunno, I hope I'm wrong and Rex makes it in despite everything going against him.

I wonder if the Ancient Soldier costume is some sort of response to the Rex controversy, by having the bonus Mii costume not be a character this time.

 

[Cosmic77]

I do think we'll get a first party character, I'm just not sure if it's gonna be a Xeno rep. Theoretically this time the Xeno series has good timing now since there's an upcoming game. My only gripe is that it's a remake and Nintendo might not care enough to push for it because Shulk is already in Smash. I dunno, I hope I'm wrong and Rex makes it in despite everything going against him.

Might help if Sakurai explained more why Byleth was chosen. If they were specifically looking for a character who would be considered new when they released, then Rex might've been skipped in favor of Byleth because XC2 would've been 2 years old by the time Rex released.

 

[StrawHatX]

I don't see many options for more first-party DLC, Three Houses and Astral Chain were the top contenders but AC got Sprit'd and Three Houses actually did get in Smash. Meanwhile, there's not much else unless BOTW2 has an important character who doesn't have to share the spotlight with others like the Champions. Byleth is the odd one out because at the end of the day Sakurai wants to go as far as he can with third parties making it the Ultimate crossover.

Oh, is that what he told you?

 

[I.D.]

I wonder if the Ancient Soldier costume is some sort of response to the Rex controversy, by having the bonus Mii costume not be a character this time.

Doubt it. It just makes me feel confident there won't be any Zelda promotional pick.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Might help if Sakurai explained more why Byleth was chosen. If they were specifically looking for a character who would be considered new when they released, then Rex might've been skipped in favor of Byleth because XC2 would've been 2 years old by the time Rex released.

I feel like it’s a bit more complex than recency:

My real guess is Rex, as well as Spring Man and Officer Howard, had mechanics that would be very difficult to translate to Smash. How would you control both Howard and their Legion? Rex would be a mix of Ice Climbers and Pokémon Trainer which is a lot to unpack, what would happen when the Blade gets KO’d? And Spring Man’s grab range would probably be too OP

so yeah I kinda think it’s a mechanics issue here

Octoling from Octo Expansion, for example, should be no issue as you can literally use Inkling as a base; those other three gotta start from scratch

 

[3BitSaurus]

Most of our options have already been implemented as Spirits though, which is why a lot of people are split on whether or not Spirits deconfirm.

I mean, unless Gooigi, a new New Horizons animal noob, and maybe MAYBE BotW 2 characters are on the table, they'll have to go back to franchises with Spirits already in Smash for their promotional picks. Same thing pretty much applies to all non-promotional characters too, seeing how anyone who had a chance already has a Spirit and this is where Porky and Sylux supporters come to correct me.

Nothing in the first pass was gonna give us answers anyway. Sakurai already knew the lineup, and he probably would've left out certain Spirits who would eventually get a fighter in the first pass (Unless that character was so notable that their absence made things look suspicious).

They can also pick from a yet-unnanounced game that will release between now and December 2021. Season 2 doesn't end until then, after all. Even then, they don't absolutely need to return to Spirits and ATs.

Sure, maybe I'm wrong and I get to tack that to my signature as well, but all I'm saying is there's a reason Byleth doesn't exactly raise other first parties' chances.

 

[Spongeboob]

Speaking of fan theories... What do you all reckon will happen with these two:

1. Spirits will not be upgraded into fighters (let's throw assist trophy upgrades in here as well).

2. Spirit board events mean no fighters are coming from that franchise.

I'm betting that both of these end up staying true with the next fighter pass. The off chance of it being broken would come from a Pokemon rep and/or a spirit upgrade as one of the six.

I think the first part holds up, but I think the second part only applies to franchises not yet in the game. For example, I think that characters from Astral Chain and Resident Evil are off the table due to already having spirits in the game. However, a Pokemon is still in the running due to the series already being in the game with fighters.

 

[Roberk]

Oh, is that what he told you?

Sakurai's talked about wanting to improve upon the record of third parties multiple times, stating how Smash Ultimate is the biggest chance to pull the most amount of companies and franchises together.

 

[Cosmic77]

I feel like it’s a bit more complex than recency:

Maybe, but Hero is pretty complex, and Sakurai did just fine with him.

Rex, Officer Howard, and Spring Man could've been held back because of mechanics, but I think the simplest explanation is that Sakurai was looking for someone from a newer game, which we already know he considers thanks to Corrin.

 

[Lamperouge]

He truly will get his chance another day...

meanwhile... Elma intensifies

Spirit.

 

[StrawHatX]

Sakurai's talked about wanting to improve upon the record of third parties multiple times, stating how Smash Ultimate is the biggest chance to pull the most amount of companies and franchises together.

And he added many already. The entire first pass was made up of 80% third parties. So he did what he said. I don’t think he wants to negotiate for every single DLC character and I’m pretty sure Nintendo wants some of their own stuff advertised. I bet we get 2 maybe 3 more third parties in this next pass.

There’s plenty of first party series that can bring in more worlds to the game.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

By the way, I’m extremely hyped by the prospect that we continue to get “Deluxe” Mii costumes for Indie stars.

First Sans, now Cuphead? They’re excellent and seem to achieve what people want from Mii’s in the first place: making it seem as though those characters are actually in Smash.

I feel like Shovel Knight makes perfect sense as a Deluxe Swordfighter, mainly because he’s got that helmet and armor to essentially cover up any body part. Based on that, I could definitely see somebody like Hollow Knight get the nod.

Real excited to see who comes next.

 

[RileyXY1]

Reminder that rules haven't changed for the second pass: every character must come with stage, music and spirit board. Pretty much means any game already represented in Ultimate is not getting any "upgrades".

However, Byleth proves you wrong.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 5 COMING OUT??
*Byleth gets announced*
Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 6 COMING OUT??

No one's asking when fighter 6 is coming out because Byleth killed any hype people had for the next fighter pass

 

[I.D.]

However, Byleth proves you wrong.

Show me that 3 houses content in Ultimate bro

 

[TheCJBrine]

I think Byleth makes it clear characters like Geno or characters actually owned by Nintendo can still come with a stage and more music/remixes, so technically Waluigi could still get in if fan-rules are broken.

Sure, TH stuff wasn't already in Ultimate, but I'm pretty sure one of the new remixes Byleth brought is another arrangement of FE's main theme (edit: meh, forget it, what I heard probably wasn't even new or was remixed with an actual new theme in the same track, but I think my basic point still works since the franchise/universe was already represented). Waluigi could come with a stage of his pinball track in Mario Kart, a Tennis stage, or DDR or something, his spirits could be other unrepresented Mario characters or literally just him in different outfits/holding or using different items and stuff, and his music could be a new arrangement of Waluigi's Pinball and other Mario themes. Geno would be the same way, except with SMRPG stuff and his spirits would definitely be different characters.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Good grief, now the page numbers are in the future.

I think the healthiest thing to do would be to see the new content in action and then put Smash speculation at the back of out minds and enjoy Animal Crossing Eternal and Doom New Horizons in March.
Wait...

 

[3BitSaurus]

By the way, I’m extremely hyped by the prospect that we continue to get “Deluxe” Mii costumes for Indie stars.

First Sans, now Cuphead? They’re excellent and seem to achieve what people want from Mii’s in the first place: making it seem as though those characters are actually in Smash.

I feel like Shovel Knight makes perfect since as a Deluxe Swordfighter, mainly because he’s got that helmet and armor to essentially cover up any body part. Based on that, I could definitely see somebody like Hollow Knight get the nod.

Real excited to see who comes next.

My guess is Quote, but Gunvolt would be interesting too. I do think we're getting at least one or two more of these indie Mii Costumes somewhere in FP2.

However, Byleth proves you wrong.

Not really. Three Houses had no content in Ultimate.

Considering we'll get Spirits and a stage for the rest of DLC picks, it seems at least like they need to be games that lack that kind of content.

 

[Icewolff92]

https://twitter.com/TheJWittz/status/1218051056841551872

I think Byleth makes it clear characters like Geno or characters actually owned by Nintendo can still come with a stage and more music/remixes, so technically Waluigi could still get in if fan-rules are broken.

Sure, TH stuff wasn't already in Ultimate, but I'm pretty sure one of the new remixes Byleth brought is another arrangement of FE's main theme. Waluigi could come with a stage of his pinball track in Mario Kart, a Tennis stage, or DDR or something, his spirits could be other unrepresented Mario characters or literally just him in different outfits/holding or using different items and stuff, and his music could be a new arrangement of Waluigi's Pinball and other Mario themes. Geno would be the same way, except with SMRPG stuff and his spirits would definitely be different characters.

The fact that we didn¨t get god shattering star is blasphemy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMfvZmhqW0A

And yeah. I don¨t see why people claim there is an issue for Waluigi to be promoted when it comes to stage, music, and spirits. The only real issue for him boils down to if Sakurai wants to upgrade Assist Trophies or not The same goes with Geno but on the spirit front

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

No one's asking when fighter 6 is coming out because Byleth killed any hype people had for the next fighter pass

that's what everyone thought about the first pass right after the double blow of Incineroar and Piranha Plant

Then Joker happened

Trust me, Sakurai will find a way to swindle us in

then he may or may not smeckledorf us with another controversial character right at the end once again, when a good percentage of peeps already bought the pass.

it's pretty much song and dance at this point

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

To be honest, I don’t actually think Byleth changes much of anything.

Remember, Byleth comes from a game with nothing currently in Smash. Sure, Fire Emblem as a series is in, but all of the spirits, all of the music, the stage, and character...all new. It’s a new game crossing over, which is just like Dragon Quest XIS: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition, and Persona 5.

Note: These three games are each a part of a larger series that has a different cast in each game. This makes it easier for those games to crossover.

Waluigi? Super Smash Bros. Ultimate X Super Mario. Definitely already a thing.

Bandanna Waddle Dee? Super Smash Bros. Ultimate X Kirby. Already a thing.

Rex? Super Smash Bros. Ultimate x Xenoblade Chronicles 2. This is a game not currently entirely crossing over, but it already has spirits, music, and a costume. Unsure with this one. Same for XCX and Elma.

Every Challenger Pack has brought entirely new content.

Sure, it’s not confirmed if things will continue the way they have. But considering it’s Season 2, as in the sequel to the first one, and it was also introduced with no mentions of any changes... I mean, Sakurai actually insinuated that it would be more of the same, apologizing for the fact that folks won’t know what’s in it until we get some reveals.

Could upgrades happen? Maybe. But I probably won’t believe it until it actually happens.

Overall, it’s not .pngs that prevent upgrades, but the function of each Challenger Pack. What does a character, game/series actually bring to Smash that other games can’t?

Before this gets downplayed by saying, “Fan rule!”, at least acknowledge the fact that the things I posted are at the very least observably true. Precedent tells us certain things, and while it can’t guarantee the future, it can provide a basis for certain aspects of speculation.

Or at least, I think so.

2nd Jonespost of the day, no Resident Evil included. Come at me DaybreakHorizon .

 

[h2ogre]

Did we ever get any news on whether or not that Mallow and Cacodemon Mii costume leak was real?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Waluigi Pack:

• Stage: Waluigi's Pinball, a tennis stage, or a dance floor or something
• Spirits: Different unrepresented Mario characters or literally different variations of Waluigi because it'd be funny and fit him
• Music: New remix of Waluigi's Pinball, more remixes of unused Mario themes, maybe some ports

Geno Pack:

I highly doubt two spirits are gonna count as using a new game world to its fullest potential in Sakurai's eyes if we're gonna stick with that. Two spirits is really not using the world at all, and he can change his mind after a year+.

• Stage: Forest Maze, Bowser's Castle, Star Hill, Nimbus Land, Weapons Factory, or a traveling stage
• Music: Beware the Forest's Mushrooms, Geno Awakens + Goodbye Geno, Happy Little Kingdom, Fight Against an Armed Boss, Fight Against Monsters, etc.
• Spirits: Croco, Boshi, Smithy, Bowyer, Johnny Jones, Booster, Fat Yoshi, etc.

 

[zeldasmash]

I did this for fun. What do you guys think? Not my best, but it was still fun squeezing the 6 I think would be cool additions.

 

[PsychoJosh]

I disagree with your first point. The game feels like butter to me. I've never had issues with buffering or anything. It's nothing more than a difference of opinion/experiance though so I'll just move on.

It's really not a difference of opinion at all. The hold buffer system is something that objectively exists. Just because you don't notice it doesn't mean it ceases to exist. It's more noticeable in certain characters over others, but all the characters have it. If you're just dinking around playing with your baby cousins in multiplayer mashing buttons and not really caring who wins it's like whatever and chances are you won't notice it, but it's much more noticeable in 1v1 competitive matches. It's a known problem that actively gets in the way more often than not, although it's much more noticeable among skilled players and with certain characters.

]The net code thing is a very valid argument, and since it seems to apply to all of Nintendo's online games I wouldn't be surprised if they just used the same net code for each one. I can't afford Nintendo's online service so I wouldn't know how bad it is, but I've heard the complaints and Nintendo games as a whole need to step up their game in that aspect.

Super Smash Bros Ultimate has had a great deal of fine tuning. Some things are tangible like the multi-directional air dash, other things operate in a more low key fashion like the amazing sound design (except for Toon Link's hit sound effects).

That's not really "fine tuning", that's just the addition of different movement options. The sound design thing is subjective, I personally don't like it, I think the cartoony reverb punch sound effects are too goofy and Kirby-esque. But that's more of a subjective thing so it's not really something that needs fixing.

 

[Opossum]

I’ve explained this in the simplest way I can think of and still this idea that DW’s interpretation gives it a pass.
It’s not a rights issue.

Dracula is not even pretending to be based on the original source material and Castlevania follows protagonists not in that source material anyway. Also Dracula is not a Fighter.

Arsene in Persona is An allusion to the character of the same name, but His being a persona drastically alters any direct connection to the source material you could have. Also, Arsene is not the Fighter, Joker is.

Dynasty Warriors is a loud and hectic interpretion of the source material. Every Dynasty Warriors game is retelling the same story, and following the same characters who were in that source material in some fashion or other.

The characters are not original video game characters.

I am adamant about this not because I dislike Lu Bu, or anyone in ROTK or games based on it, rather I believe the men and women they are based on deserve better than to be thrown into a stage to fight with cartoon characters!

tldr: in bold above

How do you factor in Ryuto Kawashima, a real life neurosurgeon, being an Assist Trophy, and Henry Fleming, protagonist of the novel The Red Badge of Courage, being a spirit?

It doesn't matter that they aren't fighters. Being in the game at all shows that public domain figures are absolutely fair game.

 

[Krankees]

I don't see many options for more first-party DLC, Three Houses and Astral Chain were the top contenders but AC got Sprit'd and Three Houses actually did get in Smash. Meanwhile, there's not much else unless BOTW2 has an important character who doesn't have to share the spotlight with others like the Champions. Byleth is the odd one out because at the end of the day Sakurai wants to go as far as he can with third parties making it the Ultimate crossover.

Ring Fit Adventure still has a shot, just saying.