Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[StrawHatX]

I see Spirits more likely getting promoted before assists.

I see both, but I don’t think it really matters anyway. Sakurai likely just looked at some fan requests and then decided if he thought they’d make a good fighter or not. Really don’t think he was thinking in terms of if it makes more sense to promote a spirit or AT.

You could argue that AT’s already had the work done to be AT’s so he wouldn’t want to bother making them into a fighter. But at the same time it’s possible some AT’s were close to being playable so he went to the next step of giving them models, but just didn’t have the time to give them a full move set. Now he does.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I see both, but I don’t think it really matters anyway. Sakurai likely just looked at some fan requests and then decided if he thought they’d make a good fighter or not. Really don’t think he was thinking in terms of if it makes more sense to promote a spirit or AT.

You could argue that AT’s already had the work done to be AT’s so he wouldn’t want to bother making them into a fighter. But at the same time it’s possible some AT’s were close to being playable so he went to the next step of giving them models, but just didn’t have the time to give them a full move set. Now he does.

kinda feel like Spring Man falls into the "AT’s [who] were close to being playable so he went to the next step of giving them models, but just didn’t have the time to give them a full move set" category, idk why I just have that intuition

 

[Us3inMN]

Am I the only one who still thinks that Spirits, Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards, and background characters deconfirm new fighters?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

ok but the real question is

what will Byleth's codename be???

 

[StrawHatX]

kinda feel like Spring Man falls into the "AT’s [who] were close to being playable so he went to the next step of giving them models, but just didn’t have the time to give them a full move set" category, idk why I just have that intuition

Could be. I don’t know how well ARMS has done though for maybe Nintendo to want to push it. If we’re to believe that this next pass is going to be catering to fans (although we all know there will be one or two “shill” picks) I guess it depends on how much people wanted him as a playable character.

 

[Us3inMN]

ok but the real question is

what will Byleth's codename be???

Bruhleth.

 

[Deleted member]

Just a few thoughts,

Regarding rules, don't you all feel that Sakurai actually has and follows his own rules for characters? There's the exclusion of non-videogame characters and that it seems Sakurai also tries to give his all in all entries. He seems to hear fans to a degree but not in a way it dictates everything of what he does in the game.

I understand the desire for upgrades but at the same time I don't see upgrades for one simple reason, do you actually all think that the pool is so small that upgrading is the only option? Nintendo whether we like it or not, releases new entries to franchises and attempts new IPs every now and then, I see them more likely to add them not for promotion but for pride in knowing they keep making new stuff. There are also popular 3rd party franchises that are quite attractive in regards of crossover potential and from companies that are close to Nintendo.

Case in point, one of the most popular upgrade talk is Waluigi but just think about him he has been passed several games and even Piranha Plant got in before him. Does this means he doesn't have a chance of being playable? Of course he can be playable but so far I see little to no incentive from Sakurai to add him and with Nintendo making new entries to their own franchises, creating new franchises altogether and introducing new characters, I just see the situation difficult for AT and spirits to some degree in general at least for this game.

Is there actually a pattern for dlc? Yes,
DLC for Ultimate seems to be aimed to different groups and fanbases as well as being from series of different impact or popularity as well different eras. And I'm going to be honest, there is not a single character that will appease every group.

That said, the theory of Hayabusa and Byleth being changed? That sounds incredibly silly if only because I don't think any of the two characters can carry being the starter as well as Joker. Which I would say a character like Sora or 2B would be more fit if its a single reveal due to their popularity worldwide.

 

[PhantomShab]

We have been given **** since Robin and Lucina ( a game where we only had 4 characters at the base game), and the twitter memes argument doesn¨t work since that one has occurred with every DLC character so far. Hoes Mad is a meme in it of itself at this point and will reoccur for the 6th as well

Well feel free to keep making Fire Emblem and its fans even more disliked I guess. I certainly wont stop you.

 

[Deleted member]

Only the Axe and somewhat the Bow. Monster Hunter has no Whip swords, they wield their Lance very differently from Byleth and Dimitri and they do not use the Bow itself for attacking, instead they attack directly with their arrows when attacking up close.

True but there are some similarities.

 

[Deleted member]

Good morning everyone.

 

[StrawHatX]

Just a few thoughts,

Regarding rules, don't you all feel that Sakurai actually has and follows his own rules for characters? There's the exclusion of non-videogame characters and that it seems Sakurai also tries to give his all in all entries. He seems to hear fans to a degree but not in a way it dictates everything of what he does in the game.

I understand the desire for upgrades but at the same time I don't see upgrades for one simple reason, do you actually all think that the pool is so small that upgrading is the only option? Nintendo whether we like it or not, releases new entries to franchises and attempts new IPs every now and then, I see them more likely to add them not for promotion but for pride in knowing they keep making new stuff. There are also popular 3rd party franchises that are quite attractive in regards of crossover potential and from companies that are close to Nintendo.

Case in point, one of the most popular upgrade talk is Waluigi but just think about him he has been passed several games and even Piranha Plant got in before him. Does this means he doesn't have a chance of being playable? Of course he can be playable but so far I see little to no incentive from Sakurai to add him and with Nintendo making new entries to their own franchises, creating new franchises altogether and introducing new characters, I just see the situation difficult for AT and spirits to some degree in general at least for this game.

Is there actually a pattern for dlc? Yes,
DLC for Ultimate seems to be aimed to different groups and fanbases as well as being from series of different impact or popularity as well different eras. And I'm going to be honest, there is not a single character that will appease every group.

That said, the theory of Hayabusa and Byleth being changed? That sounds incredibly silly if only because I don't think any of the two characters can carry being the starter as well as Joker. Which I would say a character like Sora or 2B would be more fit if its a single reveal due to their popularity worldwide.

No. I don’t think he follows any rules. I think for the most part he just adds characters he thinks would be interesting or have a unique move set. With the exception of a few “marketing” characters Nintendo might suggest or a third party company might ask for.

Ultimate is the exception where he has finally decided to add some fan requested characters, but even then I think he still looks at them and decides if he feels like they’d make good additions rather than just saying “Well, that’s what they want so I guess I’ll just do it.”

 

[Calamitas]

ok but the real question is

what will Byleth's codename be???

Possible "Oracle" or "Prophet", if Sakurai's tweet is anything to go by.

 

[Deleted member]

Am I the only one who still thinks that Spirits, Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards, and background characters deconfirm new fighters?

Nope, I'm in that same area too.

 

[Us3inMN]

Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 5 COMING OUT??
*Byleth gets announced*
Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 6 COMING OUT??

 

[Cosmic77]

Am I the only one who still thinks that Spirits, Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards, and background characters deconfirm new fighters?

Sakurai could still avoid those characters when making this new pass, but it wouldn't have been planned. The first pass was being made while the base game was still in development. It's not like he would've said, "Hey, let's leave (insert AT/Spirit) out of the game just in case the DLC sells really well and Nintendo ups the budget."

 

[Icewolff92]

Am I the only one who still thinks that Spirits, Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards, and background characters deconfirm new fighters?

At this point, the only thing that would surprise me would be if he added characters from franchise that did not originate as videogames.

And I'm going to be honest, there is not a single character that will appease every group.

That's an understatement

 

[I.D.]

Sakurai could still avoid those characters when making this new pass, but it wouldn't have been planned. The first pass was being made while the base game was still in development. It's not like he would've said, "Hey, let's leave (insert AT/Spirit) out of the game just in case the DLC sells really well and Nintendo ups the budget.

Is there even any evidence at all that a second pass wasn't already planned from the beginning? Just because they announced it later doesn't mean it wasn't already in the works.

 

[Lamperouge]

I've pretty much accepted that Rex will never happen and this is also unlikely as hell since spirits disconfirm characters and upgrades aren't in the cards at the moment (I really want them but I'm definitely not holding my breath), but my big pipe dream for season 2 is Mecha Fiora being chosen as a promotional pick for Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition.

God, that would just be ****ing amazing.

 

[I.D.]

I've pretty much accepted that Rex will never happen and this is also unlikely as hell since spirits disconfirm characters and upgrades aren't in the cards at the moment (I really want them but I'm definitely not holding my breath), but my big pipe dream for season 2 is Mecha Fiora being chosen as a promotional pick for Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition.

A promotional pick for a remaster of a game that already has a character, music, spirits and stage in Ultimate... yeah, not happening.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Is there even any evidence at all that a second pass wasn't already planned from the beginning? Just because they announced it later doesn't mean it wasn't already in the works.

I know Imran Khan said they decided on it around E3 last year; he's one of those top insiders I think.

I thought maybe Sakurai said something too, but I'm likely wrong because I don't remember for sure.

 

[Lamperouge]

A promotional pick for a remaster of a game that already has a character, music, spirits and stage in Ultimate... yeah, not happening.

Thanks for your insight.

 

[Cosmic77]

Is there actually a pattern for dlc? Yes,
DLC for Ultimate seems to be aimed to different groups and fanbases as well as being from series of different impact or popularity as well different eras. And I'm going to be honest, there is not a single character that will appease every group.

I'm sorry, but saying there was a pattern for this DLC pass feels like someone explaining what a toaster, potato, and screwdriver all have in common.

Your explanation doesn't really hone in on specific characters. "Different groups and fanbases as well as being from series of different impact or popularity as well different eras," is something that could apply to literally every character.

Is there even any evidence at all that a second pass wasn't already planned from the beginning? Just because they announced it later doesn't mean it wasn't already in the works.

Is there any evidence to suggest it was already planned? If not, then just take what they said at face value, because that's drifting into tinfoil hat territory.

 

[Ivander]

True but there are some similarities.

I think they are similar in the case of concept, not so much weapons/moveset. Both of them use a variety of weapons, even the MvCInfinite version of Monster Hunter used a variety of weapons like Byleth does. But the main difference between Byleth and Monster Hunter are the weapons they have. Byleth has a Whip sword, Giant Axe, Spear/Glaive and Bow, while Monster Hunter uses Swords and Shields, Duel Swords, Greatswords, Hunting Horns, Hammers, Switch Axes, Charge Blades, Lances and Gunlances(in which they wield them like an actual lance rather than a glaive/naginata like Byleth does), Insect Glaives, Longswords, Both Small and Giant Bowguns, Bows, and in Frontier, Gauntlets.
Basically, while both share the same concept of using multiple weapons, both have different weapons the other doesn't use and both would definitely have different movesets from their choices of weapons alone.

 

[Impa4Smash]

Am I the only one who still thinks that Spirits, Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards, and background characters deconfirm new fighters?

I dunno, I think that spirits that were in base game could very well be added as fighters. They hadn't decided on the 2nd wave of DLC, so maybe they were added cuz Sakurai didn't think they'd get in. ATs, probably less likely.

 

[Icewolff92]

I've pretty much accepted that Rex will never happen and this is also unlikely as hell since spirits disconfirm characters and upgrades aren't in the cards at the moment (I really want them but I'm definitely not holding my breath), but my big pipe dream for season 2 is Mecha Fiora being chosen as a promotional pick for Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition.

God, that would just be ****ing amazing.

I might not be a Xenoblade fan, but I¨m crossing fingers for you that you guys will get something during the DLC cycle

 

[Lamperouge]

I might not be a Xenoblade fan, but I¨m crossing fingers for you that you guys will get something during the DLC cycle

Thanks.

Byleth's inclusion makes me really happy so I can't complain about DLC too much, tho.

 

[Rikarte]

Am I the only one who still thinks that Spirits, Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards, and background characters deconfirm new fighters?

I don't think Spirits are a definitive deconfirm but very, very unlikely. If Sakurai is really looking to add as many new video game worlds to Smash as possible then upgrading an already represented character would be counterproductive as they already have a role in Smash. And while Byleth does not come from a franchise new to Smash, Three Houses is still a game that had no content whatsoever until now.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 5 COMING OUT??
*Byleth gets announced*
Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 6 COMING OUT??

Me: At E3 this year with fighter 7.

 

[Jocario Zero]

but my big pipe dream for season 2 is Mecha Fiora being chosen as a promotional pick for Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition.

God, that would just be ****ing amazing.

Honestly thats what i'm hoping. It would make sense.

With Fiora the entirety of my "gaming trio" (the other two are Mario and Lucario) would be playable in the same game.

 

[Impa4Smash]

I wonder if DLC Fighter 6 will be at E3. Or perhaps a Nintendo Direct in March? It's just crazy to think that the pre-order for the pass is available in January and we may not get the first character for half a year.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo execs (like Furukawa, you know, Nintendo's President and Ultimate's Excecutive Producer. He's a marketing guy. I'm underlining that for a reason) considered FE a really safe choice. And for good reason - FE's been getting more crossovers recently, Heroes is doing really well on mobile and FE's one of those rare franchises that gets new main characters with each new game (alongside Pokemon and Xenoblade). They know that Corrin was divisive: people still downloaded Corrin in enough numbers to convince the execs regardless of how 3H turned out. In other words, Nintendo execs are aiming to turn FE into a flagship and have another way to make $. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Furukawa and the other execs were a bit too unsure about Xenoblade at the moment,

I also get the (very personal) impression that Sakurai's always wanted to emphasize that the FE characters are strategic fighters (In this case, the whole emphasizing "Countered / Reflect" thing and designating Byleth as a "Distance Demon"). And Byleth presented a rare opportunity to do so. Sakurai's also a FE fan, that has helped the series a lot over the years.

I personally would've preferred Xenoblade, yes, but I'm not gonna fret over Byleth at all.

Honestly, while I get it being a "safe" choice, it still feels like a case of putting too many eggs in one basket. 31 of 82 fighters in Ultimate come from 4 franchises alone. Being too afraid to take risks can prevent Nintendo from earning money in other fronts as well. And we've seen it happen in the past.

Of course, I say that, but they're not nearly as bad as a few other game companies *cough* Sega *cough* Capcom *cough cough* Konami. Still, at this pace, we'll have to yell into the void for 20 more years before we get things like Advance Wars, Golden Sun or Style Savvy to have a playable fighter.

It¨s so funny how many "fan rules" Sakurai has killed over the years
https://twitter.com/RevolutionRidly/status/1217959248195391489

Hmm. Might have to update my signature.

Assist Trophies Disconfirm is the next rule to be broken... mark my words.

Speaking of fan theories... What do you all reckon will happen with these two:

1. Spirits will not be upgraded into fighters (let's throw assist trophy upgrades in here as well).

2. Spirit board events mean no fighters are coming from that franchise.

I'm betting that both of these end up staying true with the next fighter pass. The off chance of it being broken would come from a Pokemon rep and/or a spirit upgrade as one of the six.

...And yes, I know what I just said, but for now I don't see any of these three being broken. Maybe something will happen in the near future that will make me optimistic in relation to them, but... that time isn't now. I honestly think that if we get an upgrade, it'll be just one to appease the fanbase, but a future 2020 release will probably take priority for first parties imo.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Honestly if FP8 isn’t Octoling it’ll be the biggest missed opportunity ever, esp since Octo Expansion kept up a huge number 8 motif

 

[Wunderwaft]

I'm not sure if we'll get a Xenoblade character in season 2. Don't get me wrong I would love to see a Xenoblade character since Rex getting snubbed still stings, but at this point I have very little hope in seeing a Xenoblade character. Maybe Mecha Fiora might have a chance to be DLC to promote Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition but I'm not counting on it.

 

[Impa4Smash]

Honestly if FP8 isn’t Octoling it’ll be the biggest missed opportunity ever, esp since Octo Expansion kept up a huge number 8 motif

Still wish we got some DLC echoes. I'd take those over Mii fighter costumes anyway.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I wonder if DLC Fighter 6 will be at E3. Or perhaps a Nintendo Direct in March? It's just crazy to think that the pre-order for the pass is available in January and we may not get the first character for half a year.

Likely E3 because of ge statement of "Taking more time", the pass running until December 31st, 2021. We should also be getting fighter 7 as the last few has been double reveals.

2015: Roy and Ryu
2018: Daisy and Ridley
2019: Hero and Banjo

 

[I.D.]

Reminder that rules haven't changed for the second pass: every character must come with stage, music and spirit board. Pretty much means any game already represented in Ultimate is not getting any "upgrades".

 

[Impa4Smash]

Likely E3 because of ge statement of "Tsking more time", the pass running until December 31st, 2021. We should also be getting fighter 7 as the last few has been double reveals.

2015: Roy and Ryu
2018: Daisy and Ridley
2019: Hero and Banjo

Yeah, but like...half a year? That's a lot of time. Wouldn't they want to release one within a month or two to drum up some sales while it's still new? Even if we have to wait a long time for the second one.

 

[MooMew64]

Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 5 COMING OUT??
*Byleth gets announced*
Everyone: WHEN IS FIGHTER 6 COMING OUT??

Also Everyone: What do you mean "Play Smash if you're bored"? You don't play Smash, you just yell about it! Those are the rules!

 

[Cosmic77]

Kinda stinks seeing so many people give up before the pass even started. I thought a first-party getting in as fighter #5 after months and months of "only third-parties, only third-parties, only third-parties," being played on loop would be enough to turn the community on its edge.

Instead, all I'm seeing is more of the same. "Only third-parties, only new franchises, Byleth is probably our only Nintendo character."

 

[Roberk]

Yeah, but like...half a year? That's a lot of time. Wouldn't they want to release one within a month or two to drum up some sales while it's still new? Even if we have to wait a long time for the second one.

It's been about 5 months since Terry in September, waiting 5 months for the first fighter in the second pass at E3 in June will be similar.