Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The post up there discussing like, a handful of series and saying they're the only ones possible for Smash exemplifies that.

Again, I'm just spitballing. I'm not nearsighted enough to count out characters that I don't know about. I just don't mention them as much. My list of characters wasn't meant to be a list of the only characters we could possibly get. They were just the 3rd party characters that I remembered at the time that I thought could happen. It doesn't hurt your argument at all, I just don't want to come across as the same guy I was before I left the DLC speculation thread for Super Smash Bros. for Wii U.

 

[Ornl]

Are the DLC third-party characters come from different consoles ?

Smash 4
- The DLC Ryu is a character appeared at Nintendo on SNES.
- The DLC Corrin is a character appeared at Nintendo on 3DS.
- The DLC Bayonetta is a character appeared at Nintendo on WiiU.
- The DLC Cloud is a character who will appear at Nintendo on Switch.

Smash U
- The DLC Piranha Plant is a character appeared at Nintendo on NES. The NES is the most represented console in Smash U. The character forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on NES are Erdrick, Ryu Hayabusa and Arle Nadja.
- The SNES is the second most represented console in Smash U. The forecasts appeared at Nintendo on SNES are Geno, Doomguy, Terry Bogard and Scorpion.
- The forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on N64 are Leon, Rayman and Banjo.
- The forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on Cube are Lloyd and Nightmare (SC).
- The forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on Wii are Monster Hunter and Amaterasu.
- The WiiU is one of the least represented consoles in Smash U. The forecast that appeared at Nintendo on WiiU is Steve.
- The Switch is one of the least represented consoles in Smash U. The forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on Switch are Dovahkiin, Sephiroth, the Prince (Katamari), Hollow Knight, Sans and Nero Claudius.
- The forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on GB/GBC are Shantae and Mametchi.
- The GBA is one of the least represented consoles in Smash U. The forecasts appeared at Nintendo on GBA are Crash, Spyro, Phoenix Wright, Sora, Lara Croft and Heihachi.
- The DS is the console least represented in Smash U. The forecasts appeared at Nintendo on DS are Professor Layton and KOS-MOS.
- The DLC Joker is a character who will appear at Nintendo on Switch. The forecasts that appeared at Nintendo on 3DS are Jibanyan and Quote.

If the DLC third-party characters come from different consoles,
- the fighter representing the NES would already be Piranha Plant (bonus) and Erdrick,
- the fighter representing the Switch would already be ?,
- the DLC representing the SNES would be Doomguy,
- the DLC representing the 64 would be Rayman,
- the DLC representing the Cube would be nobody,
- the DLC representing the Wii would be Amaterasu,
- the DLC representing the WiiU would be Steve,
- the DLC representing the GB would be nobody,
- the DLC representing the GBA would be Crash,
- the DLC representing the DS would be Professor Layton,
- the DLC representing the 3DS would be Joker.

 

[Zero Suit Violet]

I still wonder something ... why does people think that only 3rd party will get in DLC ? I mean, we can't really judge off the enetirety of the Fighter Pass with one character, can we ?
And there is still a lot of 1rst party that would be cool, and that would make people hyped ! Granted my most wanted is AT (even if I still have hope for True Form !), but even then, there is a LOT of 1rst party that would hype me up ! And I can't be the only one !

 

[Ornl]

I still wonder something ... why does people think that only 3rd party will get in DLC ? I mean, we can't really judge off the enetirety of the Fighter Pass with one character, can we ?
And there is still a lot of 1rst party that would be cool, and that would make people hyped ! Granted my most wanted is AT (even if I still have hope for True Form !), but even then, there is a LOT of 1rst party that would hype me up ! And I can't be the only one !

"Unique", "different", "who never saw it coming forward", "new to the series", just like Joker from Persona 5" : "this gives you a flavor of how we are approaching the DLC". - Reggie

 

[Guynamednelson]

I still wonder something ... why does people think that only 3rd party will get in DLC ?

All 5 fighters will come with stages and music. New series, especially 3rd party ones, are the ones who'd need home stages and music the most. While something like Golden Sun also needs a stage and some more songs, we don't know if the DLC list was finalized at a point where the AT backlash can change it, or if AT promos can happen as DLC.

Even though there is plenty of money to be made off Waluigi, he is in less need of a stage to call his home. Waluigi Pinball could work, but so can the preexisting Mario Kart stages.

 

[RileyXY1]

"Unique", "different", "who never saw it coming forward", "new to the series", just like Joker from Persona 5" : "this gives you a flavor of how we are approaching the DLC". - Reggie

Those are misinterpretations of what he said. A similar poorly worded comment caused people to think that Ness would be cut from Brawl.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Those are misinterpretations of what he said. A similar poorly worded comment caused people to think that Ness would be cut from Brawl.

Though to be fair, Ness was close to get cutting from Brawl. Sakurai then found out Mother 3 wouldn't come to America, and kept both characters in(Lucas and Ness) to appeal to both sides of the world. He did something similar to choose Simon and Richter.

 

[RileyXY1]

Though to be fair, Ness was close to get cutting from Brawl. Sakurai then found out Mother 3 wouldn't come to America, and kept both characters in(Lucas and Ness) to appeal to both sides of the world. He did something similar to choose Simon and Richter.

No. Actually, the game that Ness was almost cut from was Melee. Ness was originally planned to be dropped and replaced with Lucas, but due to Mother 3's lengthy development process, Sakurai decided to have Ness return instead.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

No. Actually, the game that Ness was almost cut from was Melee. Ness was originally planned to be dropped and replaced with Lucas, but due to Mother 3's lengthy development process, Sakurai decided to have Ness return instead.

It was during Brawl too, actually. That's why we have both Lucas and Ness, since Mother 3 didn't get localized. He still intended to replace Ness with Lucas at the time. They both happened, basically, but Lucas didn't take Ness' spot for different reasons(though it did relate to how Mother 3 was released).

4 is really the only time where Ness took actual priority when both were strictly on the table as options. Lucas got cut and luckily got in as DLC.

 

[Ornl]

Even though there is plenty of money to be made off Waluigi, he is in less need of a stage to call his home. Waluigi Pinball could work, but so can the preexisting Mario Kart stages.

There are 12 new Non-Echo Fighters in Smash U. The first 6 come from different licenses, and it is certain that the next 4 will come from different licenses. Mario already has Piranha Plant. Pokemon already has Incineroar. DK already has K. Rool (RIP Dixie). Metroid already has Ridley (RIP Silux).

 

[dezeray112]

So the 5chan leaked was debunked? I was again 50/50 on that leak.

Anyways, I still predict that we will get to see Joker's gameplay either sometime next month or before the end of April and hopefully there will be a tease of the 2nd DLC character.

 

[osby]

There are 12 new Non-Echo Fighters in Smash U. The first 6 come from different licenses, and it is certain that the next 4 will come from different licenses. Mario already has Piranha Plant. Pokemon already has Incineroar. DK already has K. Rool (RIP Dixie). Metroid already has Ridley (RIP Silux).

say hi.

 

[Zero Suit Violet]

There are 12 new Non-Echo Fighters in Smash U. The first 6 come from different licenses, and it is certain that the next 4 will come from different licenses. Mario already has Piranha Plant. Pokemon already has Incineroar. DK already has K. Rool (RIP Dixie). Metroid already has Ridley (RIP Silux).

Well, even then, we still have Kirby and Zelda that can get a rep, or Xenoblade and Splatoon ! Even if (and that's a big if) this rule is up, we still have a whole lot of interesting 1rst party !

 

[Ornl]

say hi.

The policy of DLC for Smash U wouldn't have evolved according to you?

 

[osby]

The policy of DLC for Smash U wouldn't have evolved according to you?

I still don't believe franchise quota limits are a thing.

 

[Ornl]

Well, even then, we still have Kirby and Zelda that can get a rep, or Xenoblade and Splatoon ! Even if (and that's a big if) this rule is up, we still have a whole lot of interesting 1rst party !

No license has just 4 Non-Echo Fighters. Why Kirby ? Who else represents the Triforce in Zelda ? Why Xenoblade against the RPG Dragon Quest? What representation does Splatoon need ? Etc.

I still don't believe franchise quota limits are a thing.

Make the bets you want.

 

[Deleted member]

The policy of DLC for Smash U wouldn't have evolved according to you?

I don't understand
You made a fictional rule of "DLC characters must be different IPs", someone said that's not accurate, and then you said "well how do you know it isn't accurate now"
Unless there's a precedent for such franchise quotas then no, there is no rule. Not until Sakurai says so himself.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I still wonder something ... why does people think that only 3rd party will get in DLC ? I mean, we can't really judge off the enetirety of the Fighter Pass with one character, can we ?
And there is still a lot of 1rst party that would be cool, and that would make people hyped ! Granted my most wanted is AT (even if I still have hope for True Form !), but even then, there is a LOT of 1rst party that would hype me up ! And I can't be the only one !

I think it's because there really aren't any big name characters that aren't 3rd party. The assist trophy characters and Xenoblade Chrinicles X are pretty niche, most people assume that Rex, Pyra, & Mythra won't be DLC (though it isn't impossible), Splatoon 2's Octolings would work better as echo fighters, and we don't know enough about the characters from Fire Emblem: Three Houses and Pokémon Gen 8 to really discuss them. Most people here don't want the promo characters anyway.

No license has just 4 Non-Echo Fighters. Why Kirby ? Who else represents the Triforce in Zelda ?

First, Kirby has 0 representation from anything beyond Kirby Superstar Ultra, and Kirby fans would like that to stop being the case. Wether or not it's a good idea for DLC is yet to be seen.

Second, The Legend of Zelda series does have four non-echo fighters in the game already with Link, Zelda, Sheik, and Ganondorf (This isn't even counting the semi-clones which are also not echo fighters).

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Franchise quota limits don't exist to any of our knowledges.

There might be a quota made by Sakurai for a franchise to get a character, sure. But that's pretty much it. It's just a helpful thing for him to look for newcomers. He doesn't necessarily fill the quota either.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't understand
You made a fictional rule of "DLC characters must be different IPs", someone said that's not accurate, and then you said "well how do you know it isn't accurate now"
Unless there's a precedent for such franchise quotas then no, there is no rule. Not until Sakurai says so himself.

Yeah. Fan rules mean nothing to Sakurai.

 

[Ornl]

I don't understand
You made a fictional rule of "DLC characters must be different IPs", someone said that's not accurate, and then you said "well how do you know it isn't accurate now"
Unless there's a precedent for such franchise quotas then no, there is no rule. Not until Sakurai says so himself.

"Someone said that's not accurate" in Smash 4. Not in Smash U.
Summoning Sakurai's authority is the easiest thing in this thread, and doing so is encouraged. Finding some food for thought is the most difficult and I see that the initiatives are discouraged.

 

[CureParfait]

"Unique", "different", "who never saw it coming forward", "new to the series", just like Joker from Persona 5" : "this gives you a flavor of how we are approaching the DLC". - Reggie

For this I don't think that necessarily means all the DLC would be third parties. Since I think that quote Reggie said is just a fancy way to say the DLCs are characters who are never been playable in Smash before.

 

[TheCJBrine]

*sees more arbitrary statistics being used as evidence*

Alrighty bois:

-There's no genre "rep" quota, and while there might be a quota per franchise, it's not confirmed

-Popularity ain't the only thing they look for, and using really small sample sizes isn't gonna help in this department, especially from unofficial sites like this

-Banjo-Kazooie would not be a 2nd Rare rep, Nintendo uses K. Rool as a DK rep, only giving credit to Rare for the DKC music (plus K. Rool isn't even owned by Rare). If we're getting a Microsoft character, since they're all buddy-buddy with Nintendo and there's the XBLive & Gamepass on Switch and other devices thing, we're gonna get Banjo-Kazooie, Steve, or Master Chief - and just to note, there's no quota for company reps that we know of; Capcom has 3, Konami has 3, and Sega has 2 (about to be 3 with Joker), while Square only has 1 (2 if Erdrick is real, and Erdrick "reps" more than just Square anyway), and Namco only has 1 despite helping with Smash 4 and Ultimate's development. Y'all are taking circumstances/simple statistics and using them in your own complex fan-theories surrounding Sakurai's thoughts, and fan-theories/rules based on random stuff have been broken many times. I can see a theory/rule being likely if it's actually based around in-game/game data evidence or things people have said

 

[Idon]

For this I don't think that necessarily means all the DLC would be third parties. Since I think that quote Reggie said is just a fancy way to say the DLCs are characters who are never been playable in Smash before.

That's quite a lot of words to say "These newcomers will be... newcomers."

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

That's quite a lot of words to say "These newcomers will be... newcomers."

Yes, yes it is. But it's still a reasonable interpretation of what he said.

If anything, it also means that we'll get fully unique or semi-clones and zero regular clones or echoes, which also fit what he said pretty well.

Sometimes they aren't saying anything more and say something pretty small with a ton of words. It happens.

 

[Ornl]

Top Smash Boards third-party characters predictions
The elements below aren't indicative of authority.
Notes are shared for inviting comparison and thinking.
Decimals are rounded to 0.5.
Sorry for your eyes.

% = Smash Boards forecasts for Smash 4 then Smash U.
[Ex] = license already represented in Fighter, Mii Costume, Assist Trophy or Spirit.
[H] = male human. Because ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash Bros are male humans.
[J] = non-Japanese origin. Because 100% of the Fighters are from licenses of Japanese origins.
[N] = no first opus on Nintendo. Because 100% of Fighters are from licenses each having their first game on Nintendo.
[RPG] = license having already been adapted in series of RPG. Because all DLC can't come from RPG.
[Vb] = Vergeben leak.
[-/] = license interrupted. Because it wouldn't be a promotional choice.
[-16] = age limit in Europe.
[-18] = age limit in Europe. Because only Konami Fighters, Bayonetta and Joker are from licenses with no significant age limit.
[5] = license with less than 5 games, crossover and spin-off included.
[10] = license with at least 5 games, but less than 10, crossover and spin-off included.
[20] = license with at least 10 opus, but less than 20, crossover and spin-off included.
* = Famitsu distinction
** = top 10 on a console according to Famitsu readers
*** = top 50 according to Famitsu readers


Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Ryu________________85,5%_____________1987_____1987______SNES____42M___[H][dataminded]_______________**
Bayonetta_________10,5%_____________2009_____2009______WiiU____________[-18][5][ballot]________________**
Corrin______________4,5%_____________1990_____2015_______3DS_____________[Ex][RPG]________________**
Cloud_________________________________1987_____1997_____Switch___142M___[H][RPG]________________***

Inkling_____________________47,5%____2015_____2015______WiiU_____14M___[5]_____________________***
Simon Belmont___4,5%___60,5%____1986_____1986_______NES_____20M___[H][-18][Vb]
Richter Belmont_____________________________________1986__________1993__________SNES
King K.Rool_______41,5%__48,5%____1981_____1994______SNES____58M____________________________**
Isabelle_____________1%____46,5%____2001_____2012______3DS_____25M___[10][Vb]_________________**
Incineroar__________________36%_____1996_____2016______3DS_____311M__[RPG][Vb]________________**
Ridley______________2,5%___18,5%____1986_____1986______NES____14,5M__[20]
Joker_________________________________1987_____2016_______3DS___16,5M__[H][RPG][-16]____________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Steve________________________57%_____2011_____2011_____WiiU_____154M__[H][J][5]
Lloyd Irving_______2,5%____48%_____1995_____2002____GCube_____16M___[Ex][H][20][RPG]
Hershel Layton____17%____35%_____2007_____2007______DS_______17M___[H][10]_________________**
Phoenix Wright____7%_____33%_____2001_____2001_____GBA_______7M____[H][20]________________**
Leon S. Kennedy___1%_____29%_____1996_____1998____GCube_____85M___[H][-18]_______________**
Erdrick______________________29%_____1986_____1988_____NES_______76M__[H][RPG][Vb]____________***
Crash______________1,5%____28%_____1996_____1996______GBA______56M___[J][N]
Rayman____________18%____24%_____1995_____1995______N64______14M___[Ex][J][N][20]
Ezio_________________________23%_____2007_____2009______DS_______100M__[H][J][N][-18]
Banjo & Kazooie__4,5%____21%_____1998_____1998______N64_____________[J][-/][10]
2B___________________________21%_____2003_____2017_______x________15M___[N][RPG][-18][10]______***
Reimu Hakurei_____________16%_____1996_____1996_______x________________[N]
Spyro_______________3%_____15%____1998_____1998______GBA_______20M___[J][N][20]
Dovahkiin_________________14,5%____1994_____2011_____Switch_____52M___[H][J][N][RPG][-18][20]_*
Jibanyan___________12%____13%_____2013_____2013______3DS_______13M___[RPG][10]______________**
Sora_________________5%____13%_____2002_____2002______GBA_______24M___[H][N][RPG][20]_______***
Sephiroth__________________13%_____1987_____1997_____Switch_____142M__[H][RPG]_______________***
Doomguy__________________12%_____1993_____1993_____SNES______8,5M___[H][J][-18][10]
Monster Hunter____0%____12%_____2004_____2004______Wii_______52M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____***
Lara Croft__________________12%_____1996_____1996______GBA______67M___[J][N][-18]_____________**
Heihachi Mishima__2%____11%_____1994_____1994_____GBA_______47M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____*
Ryu Hayabusa_____________10%_____1988_____1988______NES_______18M___[H][-18]_______________**
Shantae___________13,5%___9%______2002_____2002______GBC_______________[Ex][J][10]
Amaterasu__________2%____9%______2006_____2006______Wii________8M____[5]____________________***
Arle Nadja_________________10%_____1991_____1991______NES_______25M___[N][RPG][Sega]_______________**
KOS-MOS___________________7%_____1998_____2002_______DS_______________[Ex][RPG][10]___________***
The Prince (Katamari)____________6,5%_____2004_____2004_____Switch____________[N][-/][10]
Quote (Cave Story)________7%_____6%_____2004_____2004______3DS______________[5]
Hollow Knight______________6%_____2007_____2007_____Switch_____________[J][5]
Terry Bogard_______________5,5%____1991_____1991_____SNES______________[H][20]
Katalina____________________4,5%_____2014_____2014_______x________22M___[N][RPG][5]
Master Chief________________4%_____2001______2001_______x________70M___[H][J][N][-16][20]_____**
Scorpion____________________4%______1992_____1992_____SNES______35M___[H][J][-18][20]
Sans________________________3,5%_____2015_____2015____Switch______4M____[J][RPG][5]
Nero Claudius_____________1,5%_____2004_____2010_____Switch____________[N][RPG][-16][10]______***
Sakura Shinguji____________1%______1996_____1996______GBC______________[N][RPG][Sega]__________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Mametchi___________________________1996______1996______GB_______82M
Nightmare (SC)____18%_____________1998______1998____GCube____15M___[-16][10]_______________**
Solaire of Astora____________________2009______2011____Switch____15M___[RPG][-16][5][Amiibo]_______ **

 

[Ultomato]

Top Smash Boards third-party characters predictions
The elements below aren't indicative of authority.
Notes are shared for inviting comparison and thinking.
Decimals are rounded to 0.5.
Sorry for your eyes.

% = Smash Boards forecasts for Smash 4 then Smash U.
[Ex] = license already represented in Fighter, Mii Costume, Assist Trophy or Spirit.
[H] = male human. Because ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash Bros are male humans.
[J] = non-Japanese origin. Because 100% of the Fighters are from licenses of Japanese origins.
[N] = no first opus on Nintendo. Because 100% of Fighters are from licenses each having their first game on Nintendo.
[RPG] = license having already been adapted in series of RPG. Because all DLC can't come from RPG.
[Vb] = Vergeben leak.
[-/] = license interrupted. Because it wouldn't be a promotional choice.
[-16] = age limit in Europe.
[-18] = age limit in Europe. Because only Konami Fighters, Bayonetta and Joker are from licenses with no significant age limit.
[5] = license with less than 5 games, crossover and spin-off included.
[10] = license with at least 5 games, but less than 10, crossover and spin-off included.
[20] = license with at least 10 opus, but less than 20, crossover and spin-off included.
* = Famitsu distinction
** = top 10 on a console according to Famitsu readers
*** = top 50 according to Famitsu readers


Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Ryu________________85,5%_____________1987_____1987______SNES____42M___[H][dataminded]_______________**
Bayonetta_________10,5%_____________2009_____2009______WiiU____________[-18][5][ballot]________________**
Corrin______________4,5%_____________1990_____2015_______3DS_____________[Ex][RPG]________________**
Cloud_________________________________1987_____1997_____Switch___142M___[H][RPG]________________***

Inkling_____________________47,5%____2015_____2015______WiiU_____14M___[5]_____________________***
Simon Belmont___4,5%___60,5%____1986_____1986_______NES_____20M___[H][-18][Vb]
Richter Belmont_____________________________________1986__________1993__________SNES
King K.Rool_______41,5%__48,5%____1981_____1994______SNES____58M____________________________**
Isabelle_____________1%____46,5%____2001_____2012______3DS_____25M___[10][Vb]_________________**
Incineroar__________________36%_____1996_____2016______3DS_____311M__[RPG][Vb]________________**
Ridley______________2,5%___18,5%____1986_____1986______NES____14,5M__[20]
Joker_________________________________1987_____2016_____Switch___16,5M__[H][RPG][-16]____________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Steve________________________57%_____2011_____2011_____WiiU_____154M__[H][J][5]
Lloyd Irving_______2,5%____48%_____1995_____2002____GCube_____16M___[Ex][H][20][RPG]
Hershel Layton____17%____35%_____2007_____2007______DS_______15M___[H][10]_________________**
Phoenix Wright____7%_____33%_____2001_____2001_____GBA_______7M____[H][20]________________**
Leon S. Kennedy___1%_____29%_____1996_____1998____GCube_____85M___[H][-18]_______________**
Erdrick______________________29%_____1986_____1988_____SNES______76M__[H][RPG][Vb]____________***
Crash______________1,5%____28%_____1996_____1996______GBA______56M___[J][N]
Rayman____________18%____24%_____1995_____1995______N64______14M___[Ex][J][N][20]
Ezio_________________________23%_____2007_____2009_______DS______100M__[H][J][N][-18]
Banjo & Kazooie__4,5%____21%_____1998_____1998______N64_____________[J][-/][10]
2B___________________________21%_____2003_____2017_______x________15M___[N][RPG][-18][10]_______***
Reimu Hakurei_____________16%_____1996_____1996_______x________________[N]
Spyro_______________3%_____15%____1998_____1998______GBA_______20M___[J][N][20]
Dovahkiin_________________14,5%____1994_____2011_____Switch_____52M___[H][J][N][RPG][-18][20]__*
Jibanyan___________12%____13%_____2013_____2013______3DS_______13M___[RPG][10]_______________**
Sora_________________5%____13%_____2002_____2002______GBA_______24M___[H][N][RPG][20]________***
Sephiroth__________________13%_____1987_____1997_____Switch_____142M__[H][RPG]________________***
Doomguy__________________12%_____1993_____1993_____SNES______8,5M___[H][J][-18][10]
Monster Hunter____0%____12%_____2004_____2004______Wii_______52M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]_____***
Lara Croft__________________12%_____1996_____1996______GBA______67M___[J][N][-18]______________**
Heihachi Mishima__2%____11%_____1994_____1994_____GBA_______47M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]_____*
Ryu Hayabusa_____________10%_____1988_____1988______NES_______18M___[H][-18]________________**
Shantae___________13,5%___9%______2002_____2002______GBC_______________[Ex][J][10]
Amaterasu__________2%____9%______2006_____2006______Wii________8M____[5]_____________________***
Arle Nadja_________________10%_____1991_____1991______NES_______25M___[N][RPG][Sega]________________**
KOS-MOS___________________7%_____1998_____2002_____Switch_____________[Ex][RPG][10]____________***
The Prince (Katamari)____________6,5%_____2004_____2004_____Switch____________[N][-/][10]
Quote (Cave Story)________7%_____6%_____2004_____2004______3DS______________[5]
Hollow Knight______________6%_____2007_____2007_____Switch_____________[J][5]
Terry Bogard_______________5,5%____1991_____1991_____SNES______________[H][20]
Katalina____________________4,5%_____2014_____2014_______x________22M___[N][RPG][5]
Master Chief________________4%_____2001______2001_______x________70M___[H][J][N][-16][20]______**
Scorpion____________________4%______1992_____1992_____SNES______35M___[H][J][-18][20]
Sans________________________3,5%_____2015_____2015____Switch______4M____[J][RPG][5]
Nero Claudius_____________1,5%_____2004_____2010________________________[N][RPG][-16][10]_______***
Sakura Shinguji____________1%______1996_____1996______GBC______________[N][RPG][Sega]__________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Mametchi___________________________1996______1996______GB_______82M
Nightmare (SC)____18%_____________1998______1998____GCube____15M___[-16][10]_______________**
Solaire of Astora____________________2009______2011____Switch____15M___[RPG][-16][5][Amiibo]_______ **

Stooooppp.....
I'm watching this on mobile you maniac

 

[Idon]

Top Smash Boards third-party characters predictions
The elements below aren't indicative of authority.
Notes are shared for inviting comparison and thinking.
Decimals are rounded to 0.5.
Sorry for your eyes.

% = Smash Boards forecasts for Smash 4 then Smash U.
[Ex] = license already represented in Fighter, Mii Costume, Assist Trophy or Spirit.
[H] = male human. Because ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash Bros are male humans.
[J] = non-Japanese origin. Because 100% of the Fighters are from licenses of Japanese origins.
[N] = no first opus on Nintendo. Because 100% of Fighters are from licenses each having their first game on Nintendo.
[RPG] = license having already been adapted in series of RPG. Because all DLC can't come from RPG.
[Vb] = Vergeben leak.
[-/] = license interrupted. Because it wouldn't be a promotional choice.
[-16] = age limit in Europe.
[-18] = age limit in Europe. Because only Konami Fighters, Bayonetta and Joker are from licenses with no significant age limit.
[5] = license with less than 5 games, crossover and spin-off included.
[10] = license with at least 5 games, but less than 10, crossover and spin-off included.
[20] = license with at least 10 opus, but less than 20, crossover and spin-off included.
* = Famitsu distinction
** = top 10 on a console according to Famitsu readers
*** = top 50 according to Famitsu readers


Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Ryu________________85,5%_____________1987_____1987______SNES____42M___[H][dataminded]_______________**
Bayonetta_________10,5%_____________2009_____2009______WiiU____________[-18][5][ballot]________________**
Corrin______________4,5%_____________1990_____2015_______3DS_____________[Ex][RPG]________________**
Cloud_________________________________1987_____1997_____Switch___142M___[H][RPG]________________***

Inkling_____________________47,5%____2015_____2015______WiiU_____14M___[5]_____________________***
Simon Belmont___4,5%___60,5%____1986_____1986_______NES_____20M___[H][-18][Vb]
Richter Belmont_____________________________________1986__________1993__________SNES
King K.Rool_______41,5%__48,5%____1981_____1994______SNES____58M____________________________**
Isabelle_____________1%____46,5%____2001_____2012______3DS_____25M___[10][Vb]_________________**
Incineroar__________________36%_____1996_____2016______3DS_____311M__[RPG][Vb]________________**
Ridley______________2,5%___18,5%____1986_____1986______NES____14,5M__[20]
Joker_________________________________1987_____2016_____Switch___16,5M__[H][RPG][-16]____________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Steve________________________57%_____2011_____2011_____WiiU_____154M__[H][J][5]
Lloyd Irving_______2,5%____48%_____1995_____2002____GCube_____16M___[Ex][H][20][RPG]
Hershel Layton____17%____35%_____2007_____2007______DS_______15M___[H][10]_________________**
Phoenix Wright____7%_____33%_____2001_____2001_____GBA_______7M____[H][20]________________**
Leon S. Kennedy___1%_____29%_____1996_____1998____GCube_____85M___[H][-18]_______________**
Erdrick______________________29%_____1986_____1988_____SNES______76M__[H][RPG][Vb]____________***
Crash______________1,5%____28%_____1996_____1996______GBA______56M___[J][N]
Rayman____________18%____24%_____1995_____1995______N64______14M___[Ex][J][N][20]
Ezio_________________________23%_____2007_____2009_______DS______100M__[H][J][N][-18]
Banjo & Kazooie__4,5%____21%_____1998_____1998______N64_____________[J][-/][10]
2B___________________________21%_____2003_____2017_______x________15M___[N][RPG][-18][10]_______***
Reimu Hakurei_____________16%_____1996_____1996_______x________________[N]
Spyro_______________3%_____15%____1998_____1998______GBA_______20M___[J][N][20]
Dovahkiin_________________14,5%____1994_____2011_____Switch_____52M___[H][J][N][RPG][-18][20]__*
Jibanyan___________12%____13%_____2013_____2013______3DS_______13M___[RPG][10]_______________**
Sora_________________5%____13%_____2002_____2002______GBA_______24M___[H][N][RPG][20]________***
Sephiroth__________________13%_____1987_____1997_____Switch_____142M__[H][RPG]________________***
Doomguy__________________12%_____1993_____1993_____SNES______8,5M___[H][J][-18][10]
Monster Hunter____0%____12%_____2004_____2004______Wii_______52M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]_____***
Lara Croft__________________12%_____1996_____1996______GBA______67M___[J][N][-18]______________**
Heihachi Mishima__2%____11%_____1994_____1994_____GBA_______47M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]_____*
Ryu Hayabusa_____________10%_____1988_____1988______NES_______18M___[H][-18]________________**
Shantae___________13,5%___9%______2002_____2002______GBC_______________[Ex][J][10]
Amaterasu__________2%____9%______2006_____2006______Wii________8M____[5]_____________________***
Arle Nadja_________________10%_____1991_____1991______NES_______25M___[N][RPG][Sega]________________**
KOS-MOS___________________7%_____1998_____2002_____Switch_____________[Ex][RPG][10]____________***
The Prince (Katamari)____________6,5%_____2004_____2004_____Switch____________[N][-/][10]
Quote (Cave Story)________7%_____6%_____2004_____2004______3DS______________[5]
Hollow Knight______________6%_____2007_____2007_____Switch_____________[J][5]
Terry Bogard_______________5,5%____1991_____1991_____SNES______________[H][20]
Katalina____________________4,5%_____2014_____2014_______x________22M___[N][RPG][5]
Master Chief________________4%_____2001______2001_______x________70M___[H][J][N][-16][20]______**
Scorpion____________________4%______1992_____1992_____SNES______35M___[H][J][-18][20]
Sans________________________3,5%_____2015_____2015____Switch______4M____[J][RPG][5]
Nero Claudius_____________1,5%_____2004_____2010________________________[N][RPG][-16][10]_______***
Sakura Shinguji____________1%______1996_____1996______GBC______________[N][RPG][Sega]__________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Mametchi___________________________1996______1996______GB_______82M
Nightmare (SC)____18%_____________1998______1998____GCube____15M___[-16][10]_______________**
Solaire of Astora____________________2009______2011____Switch____15M___[RPG][-16][5][Amiibo]_______ **

You know... while I appreciate the effort, I can't help but feel this would've benefited more from an Excel sheet.

 

[Nemuresu]

I still wonder something ... why does people think that only 3rd party will get in DLC ? I mean, we can't really judge off the enetirety of the Fighter Pass with one character, can we ?
And there is still a lot of 1rst party that would be cool, and that would make people hyped ! Granted my most wanted is AT (even if I still have hope for True Form !), but even then, there is a LOT of 1rst party that would hype me up ! And I can't be the only one !

Well, if you need a good post that can explain why some of us expect only third party characters, you can read this long post I made, though I added a few things to it:

Spoiler: Why all DLC will be third-party

*It's my weakest argument, but I honestly think it may have an impact. Let's go back and look at Smash 4's DLC. Ryu, Cloud and Bayonetta all had the same content and price as the ones that will be available here: a character, a stage and a bunch of songs; all for 6$, of course that’s just the individual Price and not the Wii U+3DS bundles, but it’s not like that will ever happen here. The fact that they are all third-party should probably be small a sign of that, and that's not without bringing up that out of four DLC newcomers in the last game, only one was a first party character, so it's possible there's some major favoritism towards them.
*Now, let's check what Nintendo themselves got to offer next year on the game department, to see if there's anything to look after: Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Pokémon Gen 8, Daemon X Machina and Yoshi's Crafted World. With all due honesty, I beg to see what characters do these games can really offer, but I'm going to cover that better in the next argument.
*Remember when I said I had something to say about Tails that I held back specifically for this? Well, here it is: every character has to offer a stage and songs. Sonic already has not one, but two stages, and decent selection of songs to represent his franchise, hence part of why I don’t see the two-tailed fox happening (though I’d lie if I said there aren't some good Sonic songs absent from the game like With Me or the Crush 40 version of Seven Rings in Hand). If we're going with Nintendo characters or even other character-represented franchises in general, I'm honestly having a hard time thinking about their availability. What can you give Bandana Dee to justify the bundle? Or Porky (which is why I don't see him happening)? Or Sylux, since there’s no existing Metroid Prime 4 gameplay footage as of this date? Hell, let's return to Smash 4 again, who was the only Nintendo newcomer? Oh right, that was Corrin, and he only came with a pair of songs for an existing stage, which is in my honest opinion, what should be done with that kind of newcomers. I can only think of three characters from existing franchises that could offer that kind of deal are Sephiroth (or any other Final Fantasy character, really), Chun-Li and Elma, and that's only because both of their games have more than enough music to let creativity flow through my mind. Daemon X Machina is the only franchise that wouldn't suffer from this because it's entirely new. Also, I didn't think of it back then, but that's another reason why I don't see Rex happening, if they wanted him as a full-fledged character, then they shouldn't have included XC2 songs in the game. Most possible third-party newcomers wouldn't suffer this problem, because there's a lot of material available on those regards. And now that I mentioned Rex...
*If leakers and theories are to be believed (which I do), Mii costumes are compensating for the character's otherwise complete absence from the game. So no Lip, no Rex, no Saki, and so on. Rex's more so, because the whole point of it is to make people feel like they're using the actual character; bringing him later on in the pass would just ruin its purpose.
*This is technically cheating, but I want to bring another fighting game to this: Injustice 2. Way back in 2016, when we barely knew anything about the game aside from some characters, Ed Boon was asked about bringing guest characters into the game, and this is what he said:

I always think there’s a novelty to it and there’s a certain amount of people who think that when they see a guest character that it took the slot of a DC character that they wanted to have, but you know, Scorpion in Injustice was the most downloaded of all the characters. There was a coolness and a novelty factor to seeing the mixing of the things. Alien and Predator in Mortal Kombat X were the most downloaded of those, so I would be surprised if we didn’t do any of that.

Basically, he says that guest characters are attractive and that they're best-sellers, which is something I agree with. Don't believe me? Go look at what happened with Cloud or the Ninja Turtles, it's clear these characters were attractive to the general public. Of course, we don't have proof to know if guests are as best-selling in Smash as they are in NRS' games, but reactions quite tell who impressed people more. Man, it's weird how no one never asks which DLC character has sold the most, even though it could be a very important factor for speculation and possible additions.
*And then, there's just the overall idea that Nintendo wants these characters to be "must-buys" and bring a whole new level of fun. Where's the fun on another Pokémon or Fire Emblem character who solely exists to persuade people into buying their new game entries? Clearly not something people will be interested in after the whole Corrin fiasco.
*May I add to everything too, that Reggie also mentioned at the Game Awards that Super Smash Bros. is "the biggest crossover in entertainment", and given Joker was the very first Pass character announced, it's possible that Nintendo's approach is to add as many franchises to Smash as possible.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Top Smash Boards third-party characters predictions
The elements below aren't indicative of authority.
Notes are shared for inviting comparison and thinking.
Decimals are rounded to 0.5.
Sorry for your eyes.

% = Smash Boards forecasts for Smash 4 then Smash U.
[Ex] = license already represented in Fighter, Mii Costume, Assist Trophy or Spirit.
[H] = male human. Because ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash Bros are male humans.
[J] = non-Japanese origin. Because 100% of the Fighters are from licenses of Japanese origins.
[N] = no first opus on Nintendo. Because 100% of Fighters are from licenses each having their first game on Nintendo.
[RPG] = license having already been adapted in series of RPG. Because all DLC can't come from RPG.
[Vb] = Vergeben leak.
[-/] = license interrupted. Because it wouldn't be a promotional choice.
[-16] = age limit in Europe.
[-18] = age limit in Europe. Because only Konami Fighters, Bayonetta and Joker are from licenses with no significant age limit.
[5] = license with less than 5 games, crossover and spin-off included.
[10] = license with at least 5 games, but less than 10, crossover and spin-off included.
[20] = license with at least 10 opus, but less than 20, crossover and spin-off included.
* = Famitsu distinction
** = top 10 on a console according to Famitsu readers
*** = top 50 according to Famitsu readers


Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Ryu________________85,5%_____________1987_____1987______SNES____42M___[H][dataminded]_______________**
Bayonetta_________10,5%_____________2009_____2009______WiiU____________[-18][5][ballot]________________**
Corrin______________4,5%_____________1990_____2015_______3DS_____________[Ex][RPG]________________**
Cloud_________________________________1987_____1997_____Switch___142M___[H][RPG]________________***

Inkling_____________________47,5%____2015_____2015______WiiU_____14M___[5]_____________________***
Simon Belmont___4,5%___60,5%____1986_____1986_______NES_____20M___[H][-18][Vb]
Richter Belmont_____________________________________1986__________1993__________SNES
King K.Rool_______41,5%__48,5%____1981_____1994______SNES____58M____________________________**
Isabelle_____________1%____46,5%____2001_____2012______3DS_____25M___[10][Vb]_________________**
Incineroar__________________36%_____1996_____2016______3DS_____311M__[RPG][Vb]________________**
Ridley______________2,5%___18,5%____1986_____1986______NES____14,5M__[20]
Joker_________________________________1987_____2016_____Switch___16,5M__[H][RPG][-16]____________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Steve________________________57%_____2011_____2011_____WiiU_____154M__[H][J][5]
Lloyd Irving_______2,5%____48%_____1995_____2002____GCube_____16M___[Ex][H][20][RPG]
Hershel Layton____17%____35%_____2007_____2007______DS_______15M___[H][10]_________________**
Phoenix Wright____7%_____33%_____2001_____2001_____GBA_______7M____[H][20]________________**
Leon S. Kennedy___1%_____29%_____1996_____1998____GCube_____85M___[H][-18]_______________**
Erdrick______________________29%_____1986_____1988_____SNES______76M__[H][RPG][Vb]____________***
Crash______________1,5%____28%_____1996_____1996______GBA______56M___[J][N]
Rayman____________18%____24%_____1995_____1995______N64______14M___[Ex][J][N][20]
Ezio_________________________23%_____2007_____2009_______DS______100M__[H][J][N][-18]
Banjo & Kazooie__4,5%____21%_____1998_____1998______N64_____________[J][-/][10]
2B___________________________21%_____2003_____2017_______x________15M___[N][RPG][-18][10]______***
Reimu Hakurei_____________16%_____1996_____1996_______x________________[N]
Spyro_______________3%_____15%____1998_____1998______GBA_______20M___[J][N][20]
Dovahkiin_________________14,5%____1994_____2011_____Switch_____52M___[H][J][N][RPG][-18][20]_*
Jibanyan___________12%____13%_____2013_____2013______3DS_______13M___[RPG][10]______________**
Sora_________________5%____13%_____2002_____2002______GBA_______24M___[H][N][RPG][20]_______***
Sephiroth__________________13%_____1987_____1997_____Switch_____142M__[H][RPG]_______________***
Doomguy__________________12%_____1993_____1993_____SNES______8,5M___[H][J][-18][10]
Monster Hunter____0%____12%_____2004_____2004______Wii_______52M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____***
Lara Croft__________________12%_____1996_____1996______GBA______67M___[J][N][-18]_____________**
Heihachi Mishima__2%____11%_____1994_____1994_____GBA_______47M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____*
Ryu Hayabusa_____________10%_____1988_____1988______NES_______18M___[H][-18]_______________**
Shantae___________13,5%___9%______2002_____2002______GBC_______________[Ex][J][10]
Amaterasu__________2%____9%______2006_____2006______Wii________8M____[5]____________________***
Arle Nadja_________________10%_____1991_____1991______NES_______25M___[N][RPG][Sega]_______________**
KOS-MOS___________________7%_____1998_____2002_____Switch_____________[Ex][RPG][10]___________***
The Prince (Katamari)____________6,5%_____2004_____2004_____Switch____________[N][-/][10]
Quote (Cave Story)________7%_____6%_____2004_____2004______3DS______________[5]
Hollow Knight______________6%_____2007_____2007_____Switch_____________[J][5]
Terry Bogard_______________5,5%____1991_____1991_____SNES______________[H][20]
Katalina____________________4,5%_____2014_____2014_______x________22M___[N][RPG][5]
Master Chief________________4%_____2001______2001_______x________70M___[H][J][N][-16][20]_____**
Scorpion____________________4%______1992_____1992_____SNES______35M___[H][J][-18][20]
Sans________________________3,5%_____2015_____2015____Switch______4M____[J][RPG][5]
Nero Claudius_____________1,5%_____2004_____2010_______x________________[N][RPG][-16][10]______***
Sakura Shinguji____________1%______1996_____1996______GBC______________[N][RPG][Sega]__________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Mametchi___________________________1996______1996______GB_______82M
Nightmare (SC)____18%_____________1998______1998____GCube____15M___[-16][10]_______________**
Solaire of Astora____________________2009______2011____Switch____15M___[RPG][-16][5][Amiibo]_______ **

It's advised to place long strings of text in spoiler boxes so that they don't bog down the page for people with weaker internet.

 

[SmasherMaster]

Correction, if we go based off statistics and patterns it means one of the five characters in the fighter pass is a Pokemon. Every single Smash game added two Pokemon characters who had slots on the roster, meaning we will get one more in the DLC fighter pass.
64:
Melee:
Brawl:
4:
Ultimate:
Plus, Pokemon didn't get a new stage in Ultimate, which it has received multiple stages in every installment since 64.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Correction, if we go based off statistics and patterns it means one of the five characters in the fighter pass is a Pokemon. Every single Smash game added two Pokemon characters who had slots on the roster, meaning we will get one more in the DLC fighter pass.
64:
Melee:
Brawl:
4:
Ultimate:
Plus, Pokemon didn't get a new stage in Ultimate, which it has received multiple stages in every installment since 64.

This isn't really correct.

Charizard is a pure veteran. Pokemon Trainer isn't the actual character, as there's 3 Pokemon characters in Brawl, being Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard.

The pattern doesn't hold because the data is actually different as well. In Smash 64, we got two Pokemon newcomers total. In Melee, two more. In Brawl, we lost two, but we gained four newcomers. 4 added just one. And Ultimate added one in total, while removing three. And then one more veteran came back as DLC for a total of six in-game(as all we were lacking is Pichu, Squirtle, and Ivysaur). That's why there's 10 playable Pokemon characters in proper, not 8. Sakurai even notes that Brawl has 39 actual characters, not 35. Slots aren't relevant much outside of "separating Echoes".

 

[Idon]

Correction, if we go based off statistics and patterns it means one of the five characters in the fighter pass is a Pokemon. Every single Smash game added two Pokemon characters who had slots on the roster, meaning we will get one more in the DLC fighter pass.
64:
Melee:
Brawl:
4:
Ultimate:
Plus, Pokemon didn't get a new stage in Ultimate, which it has received multiple stages in every installment since 64.

Eh, there's really no particular reason for that to continue.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I don’t think we’ll see another Pokemon unless we get a second fighter pass.

I think it’s pretty clear that the first one will be all 3rd party. I could see a second one having a gen 8 Pokemon, Rex & maybe an Arms or FE: 3 Houses character. The remaining spots would be third party again.

 

[Door Key Pig]

It's obviously too early for discussion (and that's IF we're getting it), but I have to wonder if a hypothetical second pass would just continue focusing on DLC like the first one (surprising, third-party, whatever) instead of finally doing up some fan requests like some people around here have been hoping.

 

[SPEN18]

It's obviously too early for discussion (and that's IF we're getting it), but I have to wonder if a hypothetical second pass would just continue focusing on DLC like the first one (surprising, third-party, whatever) instead of finally doing up some fan requests like some people around here have been hoping.

Yeah based on how DLC went last time and the way that it seems to be shaping up so far in Ultimate, it seems they have a general idea nailed down regarding what kinds of characters they pick for DLC. The nature of DLC works against a lot of the fan picks because there's a lot more pressure on each and every character to sell to a general audience and so it's harder to sneak in something like a "dead" character (Isaac, for ex.) or a "side character" (Waluigi, for ex.). As it stands right now, it makes way more sense to me to get Ultimate's DLC finished quickly and wait it out until the hypothetical next game in order to see certain characters. Of course, perhaps they are able to change my mind on that with these next few character reveals.

 

[The Light Music Club]

https://gematsu.com/2019/02/compile...GnI4wbLf7f8YQnOjaTde4pY3LZ6c3jLyKYdjYsvSspq1Y

Not saying Neptunia is likely or anything, but I think if there was a time to announce her, it would be March 30. This is the same day as the PAX East tournament. Her game is also coming to the US on Switch this Spring, around the same time it sounds like 3.0 patch will be coming out.

 

[Curious Villager]

Top Smash Boards third-party characters predictions
The elements below aren't indicative of authority.
Notes are shared for inviting comparison and thinking.
Decimals are rounded to 0.5.
Sorry for your eyes.

% = Smash Boards forecasts for Smash 4 then Smash U.
[Ex] = license already represented in Fighter, Mii Costume, Assist Trophy or Spirit.
[H] = male human. Because ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash Bros are male humans.
[J] = non-Japanese origin. Because 100% of the Fighters are from licenses of Japanese origins.
[N] = no first opus on Nintendo. Because 100% of Fighters are from licenses each having their first game on Nintendo.
[RPG] = license having already been adapted in series of RPG. Because all DLC can't come from RPG.
[Vb] = Vergeben leak.
[-/] = license interrupted. Because it wouldn't be a promotional choice.
[-16] = age limit in Europe.
[-18] = age limit in Europe. Because only Konami Fighters, Bayonetta and Joker are from licenses with no significant age limit.
[5] = license with less than 5 games, crossover and spin-off included.
[10] = license with at least 5 games, but less than 10, crossover and spin-off included.
[20] = license with at least 10 opus, but less than 20, crossover and spin-off included.
* = Famitsu distinction
** = top 10 on a console according to Famitsu readers
*** = top 50 according to Famitsu readers


Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Ryu________________85,5%_____________1987_____1987______SNES____42M___[H][dataminded]_______________**
Bayonetta_________10,5%_____________2009_____2009______WiiU____________[-18][5][ballot]________________**
Corrin______________4,5%_____________1990_____2015_______3DS_____________[Ex][RPG]________________**
Cloud_________________________________1987_____1997_____Switch___142M___[H][RPG]________________***

Inkling_____________________47,5%____2015_____2015______WiiU_____14M___[5]_____________________***
Simon Belmont___4,5%___60,5%____1986_____1986_______NES_____20M___[H][-18][Vb]
Richter Belmont_____________________________________1986__________1993__________SNES
King K.Rool_______41,5%__48,5%____1981_____1994______SNES____58M____________________________**
Isabelle_____________1%____46,5%____2001_____2012______3DS_____25M___[10][Vb]_________________**
Incineroar__________________36%_____1996_____2016______3DS_____311M__[RPG][Vb]________________**
Ridley______________2,5%___18,5%____1986_____1986______NES____14,5M__[20]
Joker_________________________________1987_____2016_____Switch___16,5M__[H][RPG][-16]____________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Steve________________________57%_____2011_____2011_____WiiU_____154M__[H][J][5]
Lloyd Irving_______2,5%____48%_____1995_____2002____GCube_____16M___[Ex][H][20][RPG]
Hershel Layton____17%____35%_____2007_____2007______DS_______15M___[H][10]_________________**
Phoenix Wright____7%_____33%_____2001_____2001_____GBA_______7M____[H][20]________________**
Leon S. Kennedy___1%_____29%_____1996_____1998____GCube_____85M___[H][-18]_______________**
Erdrick______________________29%_____1986_____1988_____SNES______76M__[H][RPG][Vb]____________***
Crash______________1,5%____28%_____1996_____1996______GBA______56M___[J][N]
Rayman____________18%____24%_____1995_____1995______N64______14M___[Ex][J][N][20]
Ezio_________________________23%_____2007_____2009_______DS______100M__[H][J][N][-18]
Banjo & Kazooie__4,5%____21%_____1998_____1998______N64_____________[J][-/][10]
2B___________________________21%_____2003_____2017_______x________15M___[N][RPG][-18][10]______***
Reimu Hakurei_____________16%_____1996_____1996_______x________________[N]
Spyro_______________3%_____15%____1998_____1998______GBA_______20M___[J][N][20]
Dovahkiin_________________14,5%____1994_____2011_____Switch_____52M___[H][J][N][RPG][-18][20]_*
Jibanyan___________12%____13%_____2013_____2013______3DS_______13M___[RPG][10]______________**
Sora_________________5%____13%_____2002_____2002______GBA_______24M___[H][N][RPG][20]_______***
Sephiroth__________________13%_____1987_____1997_____Switch_____142M__[H][RPG]_______________***
Doomguy__________________12%_____1993_____1993_____SNES______8,5M___[H][J][-18][10]
Monster Hunter____0%____12%_____2004_____2004______Wii_______52M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____***
Lara Croft__________________12%_____1996_____1996______GBA______67M___[J][N][-18]_____________**
Heihachi Mishima__2%____11%_____1994_____1994_____GBA_______47M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____*
Ryu Hayabusa_____________10%_____1988_____1988______NES_______18M___[H][-18]_______________**
Shantae___________13,5%___9%______2002_____2002______GBC_______________[Ex][J][10]
Amaterasu__________2%____9%______2006_____2006______Wii________8M____[5]____________________***
Arle Nadja_________________10%_____1991_____1991______NES_______25M___[N][RPG][Sega]_______________**
KOS-MOS___________________7%_____1998_____2002_____Switch_____________[Ex][RPG][10]___________***
The Prince (Katamari)____________6,5%_____2004_____2004_____Switch____________[N][-/][10]
Quote (Cave Story)________7%_____6%_____2004_____2004______3DS______________[5]
Hollow Knight______________6%_____2007_____2007_____Switch_____________[J][5]
Terry Bogard_______________5,5%____1991_____1991_____SNES______________[H][20]
Katalina____________________4,5%_____2014_____2014_______x________22M___[N][RPG][5]
Master Chief________________4%_____2001______2001_______x________70M___[H][J][N][-16][20]_____**
Scorpion____________________4%______1992_____1992_____SNES______35M___[H][J][-18][20]
Sans________________________3,5%_____2015_____2015____Switch______4M____[J][RPG][5]
Nero Claudius_____________1,5%_____2004_____2010_______x________________[N][RPG][-16][10]______***
Sakura Shinguji____________1%______1996_____1996______GBC______________[N][RPG][Sega]__________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Mametchi___________________________1996______1996______GB_______82M
Nightmare (SC)____18%_____________1998______1998____GCube____15M___[-16][10]_______________**
Solaire of Astora____________________2009______2011____Switch____15M___[RPG][-16][5][Amiibo]_______ **

Just thought I should let you know. The sales numbers of the Layton series was confirmed to be about 17 million as of last year, not 15.

Nice chart though.

 

[Ornl]

Just thought I should let you know. The sales numbers of the Layton series was confirmed to be about 17 million as of last year, not 15.

I really appreciate this kind of rectification, thank you to correct

 

[Deleted member]

Top Smash Boards third-party characters predictions
The elements below aren't indicative of authority.
Notes are shared for inviting comparison and thinking.
Decimals are rounded to 0.5.
Sorry for your eyes.

% = Smash Boards forecasts for Smash 4 then Smash U.
[Ex] = license already represented in Fighter, Mii Costume, Assist Trophy or Spirit.
[H] = male human. Because ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash Bros are male humans.
[J] = non-Japanese origin. Because 100% of the Fighters are from licenses of Japanese origins.
[N] = no first opus on Nintendo. Because 100% of Fighters are from licenses each having their first game on Nintendo.
[RPG] = license having already been adapted in series of RPG. Because all DLC can't come from RPG.
[Vb] = Vergeben leak.
[-/] = license interrupted. Because it wouldn't be a promotional choice.
[-16] = age limit in Europe.
[-18] = age limit in Europe. Because only Konami Fighters, Bayonetta and Joker are from licenses with no significant age limit.
[5] = license with less than 5 games, crossover and spin-off included.
[10] = license with at least 5 games, but less than 10, crossover and spin-off included.
[20] = license with at least 10 opus, but less than 20, crossover and spin-off included.
* = Famitsu distinction
** = top 10 on a console according to Famitsu readers
*** = top 50 according to Famitsu readers


Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Ryu________________85,5%_____________1987_____1987______SNES____42M___[H][dataminded]_______________**
Bayonetta_________10,5%_____________2009_____2009______WiiU____________[-18][5][ballot]________________**
Corrin______________4,5%_____________1990_____2015_______3DS_____________[Ex][RPG]________________**
Cloud_________________________________1987_____1997_____Switch___142M___[H][RPG]________________***

Inkling_____________________47,5%____2015_____2015______WiiU_____14M___[5]_____________________***
Simon Belmont___4,5%___60,5%____1986_____1986_______NES_____20M___[H][-18][Vb]
Richter Belmont_____________________________________1986__________1993__________SNES
King K.Rool_______41,5%__48,5%____1981_____1994______SNES____58M____________________________**
Isabelle_____________1%____46,5%____2001_____2012______3DS_____25M___[10][Vb]_________________**
Incineroar__________________36%_____1996_____2016______3DS_____311M__[RPG][Vb]________________**
Ridley______________2,5%___18,5%____1986_____1986______NES____14,5M__[20]
Joker_________________________________1987_____2016_____Switch___16,5M__[H][RPG][-16]____________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Steve________________________57%_____2011_____2011_____WiiU_____154M__[H][J][5]
Lloyd Irving_______2,5%____48%_____1995_____2002____GCube_____16M___[Ex][H][20][RPG]
Hershel Layton____17%____35%_____2007_____2007______DS_______17M___[H][10]_________________**
Phoenix Wright____7%_____33%_____2001_____2001_____GBA_______7M____[H][20]________________**
Leon S. Kennedy___1%_____29%_____1996_____1998____GCube_____85M___[H][-18]_______________**
Erdrick______________________29%_____1986_____1988_____SNES______76M__[H][RPG][Vb]____________***
Crash______________1,5%____28%_____1996_____1996______GBA______56M___[J][N]
Rayman____________18%____24%_____1995_____1995______N64______14M___[Ex][J][N][20]
Ezio_________________________23%_____2007_____2009_______DS______100M__[H][J][N][-18]
Banjo & Kazooie__4,5%____21%_____1998_____1998______N64_____________[J][-/][10]
2B___________________________21%_____2003_____2017_______x________15M___[N][RPG][-18][10]______***
Reimu Hakurei_____________16%_____1996_____1996_______x________________[N]
Spyro_______________3%_____15%____1998_____1998______GBA_______20M___[J][N][20]
Dovahkiin_________________14,5%____1994_____2011_____Switch_____52M___[H][J][N][RPG][-18][20]_*
Jibanyan___________12%____13%_____2013_____2013______3DS_______13M___[RPG][10]______________**
Sora_________________5%____13%_____2002_____2002______GBA_______24M___[H][N][RPG][20]_______***
Sephiroth__________________13%_____1987_____1997_____Switch_____142M__[H][RPG]_______________***
Doomguy__________________12%_____1993_____1993_____SNES______8,5M___[H][J][-18][10]
Monster Hunter____0%____12%_____2004_____2004______Wii_______52M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____***
Lara Croft__________________12%_____1996_____1996______GBA______67M___[J][N][-18]_____________**
Heihachi Mishima__2%____11%_____1994_____1994_____GBA_______47M___[Ex][H][N][-16][20]____*
Ryu Hayabusa_____________10%_____1988_____1988______NES_______18M___[H][-18]_______________**
Shantae___________13,5%___9%______2002_____2002______GBC_______________[Ex][J][10]
Amaterasu__________2%____9%______2006_____2006______Wii________8M____[5]____________________***
Arle Nadja_________________10%_____1991_____1991______NES_______25M___[N][RPG][Sega]_______________**
KOS-MOS___________________7%_____1998_____2002_____Switch_____________[Ex][RPG][10]___________***
The Prince (Katamari)____________6,5%_____2004_____2004_____Switch____________[N][-/][10]
Quote (Cave Story)________7%_____6%_____2004_____2004______3DS______________[5]
Hollow Knight______________6%_____2007_____2007_____Switch_____________[J][5]
Terry Bogard_______________5,5%____1991_____1991_____SNES______________[H][20]
Katalina____________________4,5%_____2014_____2014_______x________22M___[N][RPG][5]
Master Chief________________4%_____2001______2001_______x________70M___[H][J][N][-16][20]_____**
Scorpion____________________4%______1992_____1992_____SNES______35M___[H][J][-18][20]
Sans________________________3,5%_____2015_____2015____Switch______4M____[J][RPG][5]
Nero Claudius_____________1,5%_____2004_____2010_______x________________[N][RPG][-16][10]______***
Sakura Shinguji____________1%______1996_____1996______GBC______________[N][RPG][Sega]__________***

Name______________%(S4)__%(SU)__1st opus__1st app__App. BigN__Sales __Special________________Fam. top

Mametchi___________________________1996______1996______GB_______82M
Nightmare (SC)____18%_____________1998______1998____GCube____15M___[-16][10]_______________**
Solaire of Astora____________________2009______2011____Switch____15M___[RPG][-16][5][Amiibo]_______ **

A few corrections:
-Erdrick's first appearance was on the NES. DQ III was an NES title that got an SNES remake.
-Nero Claudius (I'm assuming from Fate), appeared on Fate Extella for Switch in 2017
-KOS-MOS first debut on Nintendo was on the NDS with the Japanese release of Xenosaga I & II
-Joker first appearance on Nintendo consoles is PQ2 for the 3DS, as no version of P5 is confirmed for the Switch ATM.