In likely a surprise to everyone here I have to give him around a 50% chance if the Mii costume leak is real if it is not it drops to 35% at best. I really do think that a Bethesda/ID software character is very likely, like 95% likely, just for the company alone; I just think that it's more likely to be Elder Scrolls with Doomguy and Caco being costumes. Less controversy and messiness with gore and hell imagery.
Elder Scrolls makes more sense anyway, albeit for different reasons!
- It is Bethesda's home grown franchise, and what made them so successful. Meanwhile Doom was acquired.
- It was the second game shown off for the Switch and used to advertise third party support.
- The Elder Scrolls is also celebrating its' 25th year, not just Doom.
- Bethesda's been promoting Elder Scrolls Blades for Switch.
- It has ties to Breath of the Wild. Breath of the Wild was heavily inspired by the TES series. Meanwhile Skyrim on Switch had Nintendo exclusive features, including motion controls, Amiibo support, and Zelda-themed items.
- To tie into the last point, the Zelda items were apparently Todd Howard's idea, implying that he likes or at least has a good interest in Nintendo. So if Nintendo was going to do negotiations with Bethesda then Todd would definitely want to be there. And in the company his word is as important as Pete Hines'.
- Skyrim was the first Western game to get a 40/40 on Famitsu. It's no Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest but Japanese players love the series, and there are tons of Japanese roleplay videos for the game. There's also a decent amount of Japanese popularity for ESO. Meanwhile, while it still has some fans over in Japan, Doom ticks most of the boxes to not be popular in Japan. The Green Samus and Pacific Rim quotes sum it up, even if subjective.
- The Elder Scrolls outsells Doom by a longshot. Skyrim sold 33 million (4 times as much as the entire Doom franchise), Oblivion sold 9.8 million, and Morrowind sold 4 million. The gap will narrow a little bit when Eternal is released but the point still stands.