Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[PLANTMAN]

I sure am getting tired of this new spirit deconfirming theory when it doesn’t mean anything at all

 

[7NATOR]

I sure am getting tired of this new spirit deconfirming theory when it doesn’t mean anything at all

It's just Speculation. You never know, it could hold all the answers

 

[PLANTMAN]

It's just Speculation. You never know, it could hold all the answers

Nothing holds answers for things like these unless it’s newly added spirits

 

[Cosmic77]

I sure am getting tired of this new spirit deconfirming theory when it doesn’t mean anything at all

Speculation is constantly evolving. Around this time last year, all Spirits were absolutely 100% deconfirmations, franchises already involved were off the table because they didn't expand the crossover, and Nintendo was smart enough to realize third-parties were the only DLC characters that would make them money. ARMS wasn't getting a character, but hey, there's always next game.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Yeah the spirit thing now isn't actually all that deep.

If they're base game, they're eligible, but not necessarily confirmed. For example, despite there being the chance of there being another "upgrade" I don't know how much I would bet on the entire pass being upgrades.

If they're post-launch, it's not the fact that they are pngs that disconfirm them, but the timing of their release.

Given the fact that Fire Emblem Three Houses didn't get spirits released alongside the release of the game itself, that was suspicious considering Sword & Shield got spirits. Even more interesting is that the contents of Vol. 2 are highly speculated to be decided entirely between June-November of 2019. In other words, why have a spirit even for Resident Evil, for example, if a character from that game/series is already a Spirit instead of waiting for the playable character to be released later?

It's the same reason why the prospective chances of Ring Fit Adventurer and Akira Howard (Astral Chain) aren't looking all that great.

Beyond that, there really isn't much ground to speculate on Spirits. I don't really think there's any reason to believe that particular spirits not being included in particular events means they are planned to be playable. That's an enormous leap.

Lastly, with the latest event not including The Origami King, this puts it outside of the typical 2 week timespan in which new releases typically get a spirit event. This is suspicious to an extent, but I do think before we get too far it's worth noting how spirits work.

Not only is a character represented by a character that functions similarly to them, it also comes down to appearance in some cases. Function and/or appearance tie into it significantly. For the Origami King, there are some options for the Spirits (realistic arts/crafts item bosses, Olly and Olivia, vellumentals) but Paper Mario also has a pretty decent lineup of spirits anyway. That said, I'm not really sure what a Spirit Event for Olly and Olivia looks like, considering most of what makes them unique comes from other aspects of the game that could be spirits on their own.

I say this as somebody who has always lowkey wanted Paper Mario, so I'm not hating on it or making things up to suggest it isn't likely. It's just a potential reason as to why there wasn't an event.

Or, perhaps, we get one down the line similar to Astral Chain or Ring Fit. But I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Speculation is constantly evolving. Around this time last year, all Spirits were absolutely 100% deconfirmations, franchises already involved were off the table because they didn't expand the crossover, and Nintendo was smart enough to realize third-parties were the only DLC characters that would make them money. ARMS wasn't getting a character, but hey, there's always next game.

That was painful to read.

Don't forget the part where Joker was now the new standard and every DLC character was gonna be thematically like him.

 

[Deleted member]

I'd say it hurts Rex's chances a bit, but I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

 

[PLANTMAN]

If they're post-launch, it's not the fact that they are pngs that disconfirm them, but the timing of their release.

Well except for Pokémon tho

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Well except for Pokémon tho

The only reason people continue to think the Spirit Event may not count Pokemon out is because it's Pokemon, and the spirits included probably wouldn't be the playable characters in the first place.

If it were any other series it probably wouldn't be considered in the running, but I do find myself agreeing that it can't be counted out altogether.

 

[PLANTMAN]

The only reason people continue to think the Spirit Event may not count Pokemon out is because it's Pokemon, and the spirits included probably wouldn't be the playable characters in the first place.

that’s why I think the gen 8 rep is gonna be someone unrepresented like urshifu

 

[Cosmic77]

Main reason why I think SwSh is different isn't because, "it's Pokemon!" It's because the Spirits were released so close to the launch of SwSh.

If Astral Chain or Ring Fit got Spirits a week or so after their games came out, I don't think it would've been that big of a deal. There'd still be a minimum of one year between the character and the Spirits, and most of what Sakurai made could be recycled in the future. They wanted to commemorate the release of a new game instead of waiting what could potentially be two years after the game was released.

Instead, they decided to release Spirits almost six months after the games launched. At that point, it's hard to explain why they wouldn't just wait for the character.

 

[Droodle]

I'd say the killing blow for Rex/Xenoblade would be if the Mii costume start to get sold separately from FP 1, right now he's still a bonus for purchasing FP 1 and you can't get him separately. So that screws you over if you don't get FP 1 and buy DLC separately. I personally find it very strange, sure it makes sense for FP 1; but you'd think they would just put him on Eshop to buy separately if they have no further plans for him. On top of that "1 year" is enough of an exclusivity time for early purchasers, it would make sense now to just make him available to purchase for anyone.

That and I don't really think they put a lot of thought into most spirit events/selections. I mean, I think this is the first time Rex has ever been in an Event; and he even missed the "Making a Splash" Event last year (Nia was on it, but Rex fits ridiculously well with it too considering there's a whole diving minigame in XC 2 and that's his literal job.)

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

It’s also a possibility that the Pokémon rep could come from the next years game. Whether it’s a Gen 4 remake or not. Gotta remember that this pass isn’t over until December of 2021.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

It’s also a possibility that the Pokémon rep could come from the next years game. Whether it’s a Gen 4 remake or not. Gotta remember that this pass isn’t over until December of 2021.

So what you're saying is...

...Luxray has a legitimate chance of being playable.

Kidding, kidding

For real, though, I'm not sure if they'd revisit Gen 4 for a newcomer since Lucario's already around. Doesn't rule it out, obviously, there's no rule saying it can't happen. I just think they're more likely to push for a much newer 'Mon for the pass.

 

[Digital Hazard]

It’s also a possibility that the Pokémon rep could come from the next years game. Whether it’s a Gen 4 remake or not. Gotta remember that this pass isn’t over until December of 2021.

Look, I think Infernape or Garchomp would be awesome, but Gen 3 remakes didn't mean any of its Pokémon got to be DLC in Smash 4.

 

[PLANTMAN]

I think this is the first time Rex has ever been in an Event

Well there’s also the aegis lady’s which are important to his moveset they appeared multiple times

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

So what you're saying is...

...Luxray has a legitimate chance of being playable.

Kidding, kidding

For real, though, I'm not sure if they'd revisit Gen 4 for a newcomer since Lucario's already around. Doesn't rule it out, obviously, there's no rule saying it can't happen. I just think they're more likely to push for a much newer 'Mon for the pass.

Again that’s IF the next game is even a remake. It could just be anything really since SwSh took the place of last years game and DLC took up the place of this years. It could very well just be Gen 9.

 

[SpectreJordan]

It’s also a possibility that the Pokémon rep could come from the next years game. Whether it’s a Gen 4 remake or not. Gotta remember that this pass isn’t over until December of 2021.

I’ve had this idea for a while too. Probably my biggest gaming sin is that I haven’t played a Pokemon game, so I don’t know who the front runners for a Gen 4 Pokemon would be though.

* Red is in my backlog, maybe I’ll get to it next year.

 

[Cosmic77]

The Gen 4 remakes will probably get a Spirit event just like Let's Go did, but I don't think there's any urgency to promote it with a character. We have Lucario, we have Spear Pillar, we have a handful of music tracks, we have several Pokeball Pokemon and Spirits of Pokemon from Gen 4 — the existing content should more than suffice.

SwSh has more to pull from, and that's because it's currently represented by four Spirits and nothing else.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Again that’s IF the next game is even a remake. It could just be anything really since SwSh took the place of last years game and DLC took up the place of this years. It could very well just be Gen 9.

That's wild to think it'd be this soon.

But maybe that's because I didn't keep up with new Pokemon games growing up. Wasn't until X and Y came out that I started paying more attention to and tried to keep up with them.

Look, I think Infernape or Garchomp would be awesome, but Gen 3 remakes didn't mean any of its Pokémon got to be DLC in Smash 4.

Also this.

Again, doesn't rule the possibility out, but even if it was a Gen 4 remake (which I'd love) we'd have little reason to believe a Gen 4 Smash newcomer would be likely to happen.

 

[7NATOR]

You know, with all this promotion talk, I just realized

Does Pokemon really need any Promotion? It already has sold over 16 million and counting. If anything, Pokemon would be used to promote Smash

 

[WaddleMatt]

Look, I think Infernape or Garchomp would be awesome, but Gen 3 remakes didn't mean any of its Pokémon got to be DLC in Smash 4.

Man, this completely reminded me that Sceptile was actually decently supported back then because of the remakes.

 

[KillerCage]

Well there’s also the aegis lady’s which are important to his moveset they appeared multiple times

Didn't her voice actor say she got a new gig that would roast her if she reveals what it is recently?
EDIT: That gig I mentioned wasn't for either Xenoblade or Smash. Sorry!

 

[cmbsfm]

Make more fake leaks probably lmao

You remember Cacodemon and Mallow? Get ready for Cyberdemon and Smithy costumes. The Cybersmithy leak.

 

[Digital Hazard]

You know, with all this promotion talk, I just realized

Does Pokemon really need any Promotion? It already has sold over 16 million and counting. If anything, Pokemon would be used to promote Smash

You'd be right that it doesn't needs one.

But from a commercial standpoint, reaching to even more people to further the success is not a bad idea.

 

[chocolatejr9]

So I found this on the Geno thread. I don't know much about this user's trackrecord, but if this is true, it WOULD explain a few things about Nintendo's... situation.

Ok, I don’t usually talk about my connections publicly but I feel like this needs to be said since there does seem to be confusion in both our speculation spaces and insider circles.

There are a LOT of corporate shakeups from across nearly all of the different offices around the world happening at Nintendo. The biggest reason is there is a major investigation going on with the basis of Corporate Espionage due to the leaking of all this classified content that has appeared on the web as of late. They know who the guy is that has been releasing it and has already filed a lawsuit against him but it isn’t stopping there because it is theorized by people inside the company that it was an employee who helped or allowed someone to do this.

Everyone from top to bottom is being investigated because of this. So, even though all this stuff coming out on older games is cool, it’s also effecting Nintendo and it’s releases.

So yeah, there’s that. Nintendo news is being pushed back constantly as more and more people are getting investigated.

 

[MooMew64]

Yeah the spirit thing now isn't actually all that deep.

If they're base game, they're eligible, but not necessarily confirmed. For example, despite there being the chance of there being another "upgrade" I don't know how much I would bet on the entire pass being upgrades.

If they're post-launch, it's not the fact that they are pngs that disconfirm them, but the timing of their release.

Given the fact that Fire Emblem Three Houses didn't get spirits released alongside the release of the game itself, that was suspicious considering Sword & Shield got spirits. Even more interesting is that the contents of Vol. 2 are highly speculated to be decided entirely between June-November of 2019. In other words, why have a spirit even for Resident Evil, for example, if a character from that game/series is already a Spirit instead of waiting for the playable character to be released later?

It's the same reason why the prospective chances of Ring Fit Adventurer and Akira Howard (Astral Chain) aren't looking all that great.

Beyond that, there really isn't much ground to speculate on Spirits. I don't really think there's any reason to believe that particular spirits not being included in particular events means they are planned to be playable. That's an enormous leap.

Lastly, with the latest event not including The Origami King, this puts it outside of the typical 2 week timespan in which new releases typically get a spirit event. This is suspicious to an extent, but I do think before we get too far it's worth noting how spirits work.

Not only is a character represented by a character that functions similarly to them, it also comes down to appearance in some cases. Function and/or appearance tie into it significantly. For the Origami King, there are some options for the Spirits (realistic arts/crafts item bosses, Olly and Olivia, vellumentals) but Paper Mario also has a pretty decent lineup of spirits anyway. That said, I'm not really sure what a Spirit Event for Olly and Olivia looks like, considering most of what makes them unique comes from other aspects of the game that could be spirits on their own.

I say this as somebody who has always lowkey wanted Paper Mario, so I'm not hating on it or making things up to suggest it isn't likely. It's just a potential reason as to why there wasn't an event.

Or, perhaps, we get one down the line similar to Astral Chain or Ring Fit. But I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

Summed up my thoughts on Spirits quite nicely. It's all in the timing: Base game spirits are definitely back on the table, as the timing between basegame and DLC2's planning phases were most likely very far away from each other that stances on inclusion could be rethought, as we saw with Min Min. However, Spirits added now are very detrimental for the chances of a character, as why would you include them or elements from their game as Spirits now if you're going to make them playable and have a Spirit Board included with them later?

Also, yeah, Paper Mario not getting an event is interesting. Doesn't put him as a "Oh my gosh it's happening!" situation as they could do one later, but the longer we go without one the more it makes you wonder due to what happened with Three Houses.

Also, Pokemon is Pokemon. It gets the red carpet treatment in Smash all the time, so honestly I don't think any speculation rules really apply to it given the special treatment the series gets: If TPC and Nintendo want a Pokemon in there, they're gonna be in there regardless of timing on other things, lol. Plus, most of the Pokemon that are realistically eligible don't have Spirits ATM and could bring plenty of new ones with them from the DLC, so there's plenty of potential content to pull from.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Also, Pokemon is Pokemon. It gets the red carpet treatment in Smash all the time, so honestly I don't think any speculation rules really apply to it given the special treatment the series gets: If TPC and Nintendo want a Pokemon in there, they're gonna be in there regardless of timing on other things, lol. Plus, most of the Pokemon that are realistically eligible don't have Spirits ATM and could bring plenty of new ones with them from the DLC, so there's plenty of potential content to pull from.

This is interesting to me because Pokemon has only had one dlc character so far, who was a returning vet: Mewtwo. While Pokemon has always gotten 1-2 newcomers, they have been base game additions. The franchise hasn't really seen much activity within the dlc landscape so far. Could it happen this time? Definitely, but we don't have much to go on in terms of precedence.

 

[TwiceEXE]

So I found this on the Geno thread. I don't know much about this user's trackrecord, but if this is true, it WOULD explain a few things about Nintendo's... situation.

I'm curious why this would be happening now when the iQue data was taken back in 2016 AFAIK. And although some of the big stuff has been released recently, the data had already been trickling out before now.

 

[StrangeKitten]

I mean, we did get Pokemon Trainer, who was pretty clearly based on the Red and Blue/Green remakes. So a character based on remakes has happened before. I strongly, strongly doubt we'll get a character for Sinnoh remakes, but I wouldn't 100% rule it out. If I had to pick a Pokemon to rep them, I'd go with Garchomp.

But, like I said, I think such a thing is very, very unlikely to happen. Hell, we don't even know if remakes are happening at all at this point

 

[PeridotGX]

You know, with all this promotion talk, I just realized

Does Pokemon really need any Promotion? It already has sold over 16 million and counting. If anything, Pokemon would be used to promote Smash

SWSH might not, but there are facets of the series that would benefit from Smash promotion, like Pokemon Mystery Dungeon

 

[Jomosensual]

Let's take a census. What Nintendo games have had spirit events and what games have skipped them?

Astral Chain and 3 Houses for sure with each of those going in different directions. Gonna give Paper Mario some time before calling that one skipped still. Otherwise no idea

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

The eternal Nintendo cycle:

-Hype
-Hype some more
-Hype to unhealthy levels
-The reveal is low-key
-Accuse Nintendo of lying and get unreasonably upset

Will we ever learn? Will we grow? Will us, the community, improve?

No.

Forget the never-ending cycle of violence.

This is the real never-ending cycle right here.

 

[Jomosensual]

Yeah the spirit thing now isn't actually all that deep.

If they're base game, they're eligible, but not necessarily confirmed. For example, despite there being the chance of there being another "upgrade" I don't know how much I would bet on the entire pass being upgrades.

If they're post-launch, it's not the fact that they are pngs that disconfirm them, but the timing of their release.

Given the fact that Fire Emblem Three Houses didn't get spirits released alongside the release of the game itself, that was suspicious considering Sword & Shield got spirits. Even more interesting is that the contents of Vol. 2 are highly speculated to be decided entirely between June-November of 2019. In other words, why have a spirit even for Resident Evil, for example, if a character from that game/series is already a Spirit instead of waiting for the playable character to be released later?

It's the same reason why the prospective chances of Ring Fit Adventurer and Akira Howard (Astral Chain) aren't looking all that great.

Beyond that, there really isn't much ground to speculate on Spirits. I don't really think there's any reason to believe that particular spirits not being included in particular events means they are planned to be playable. That's an enormous leap.

Lastly, with the latest event not including The Origami King, this puts it outside of the typical 2 week timespan in which new releases typically get a spirit event. This is suspicious to an extent, but I do think before we get too far it's worth noting how spirits work.

Not only is a character represented by a character that functions similarly to them, it also comes down to appearance in some cases. Function and/or appearance tie into it significantly. For the Origami King, there are some options for the Spirits (realistic arts/crafts item bosses, Olly and Olivia, vellumentals) but Paper Mario also has a pretty decent lineup of spirits anyway. That said, I'm not really sure what a Spirit Event for Olly and Olivia looks like, considering most of what makes them unique comes from other aspects of the game that could be spirits on their own.

I say this as somebody who has always lowkey wanted Paper Mario, so I'm not hating on it or making things up to suggest it isn't likely. It's just a potential reason as to why there wasn't an event.

Or, perhaps, we get one down the line similar to Astral Chain or Ring Fit. But I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

For me spirits don't deconfirm if:
1. They are from the base
2. the spirit event happened before Pass 2 started
3. The spirit event left obvious doors open(Pokemon and RE mostly here, although their chances went down a lot)

Otherwise I think spirits the deconfirm. I'm not sure why people kept screaming about spirits once Pass 1 ended when the arguement was never that spirits are a complete death sentence though.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'll be honest, looking at throwaway Spirit Events to see what characters do and don't feature on them is the dumbest speculation trend in a hot minute. It's not new content, just remixing old stuff, and it would require the Spirit team - which is a separate team - to know about characters much longer in advance than necessary. Plus it implies that either Nintendo thinks that having a future fighter featured as a Spirit - when they're already been made into one - is an unacceptable overlap, or that they're outright teasing people. Neither of which seems remotely probable.

 

[Jomosensual]

You know, with all this promotion talk, I just realized

Does Pokemon really need any Promotion? It already has sold over 16 million and counting. If anything, Pokemon would be used to promote Smash

Never liked this argument. Most series or characters that get into Smash don't need it. That's not how they pick characters. Otherwise we'd have characters from Wonderful 101, Advanced Wars, Custom Robo, etc all over the game. I'm not sure who the last character that was added in because the series needed someone in Smash for the game to sell was. Usually if you need Smash to sell the game then the game gets skipped over for a character.

 

[SharkLord]

I just go by "Base Game Spirit-Safe, Post-Launch Spirit-Deconfirmed," same for the Mii Costumes (Might make an exception for Rex's Mii, since it was chosen during the base game's development). Assist Trophies might be a deconfirm, but Min Min's presentation could go both ways and I'm not ready to make a definitive statement just yet (Though I lean towards safe).

 

[CapitaineCrash]

This is interesting to me because Pokemon has only had one dlc character so far, who was a returning vet: Mewtwo. While Pokemon has always gotten 1-2 newcomers, they have been base game additions. The franchise hasn't really seen much activity within the dlc landscape so far. Could it happen this time? Definitely, but we don't have much to go on in terms of precedence.

Well to be fair there wasn't that much opportunity to add Pokemon as DLC in the past. Our only game with DLC is Smash 4, but it finishes is DLC cycle before the release of the new game (Smash 4 DLC end early 2016, Pokemon sun/moon released late 2016).

 

[GoodGrief741]

Never liked this argument. Most series or characters that get into Smash don't need it. That's not how they pick characters. Otherwise we'd have characters from Wonderful 101, Advanced Wars, Custom Robo, etc all over the game. I'm not sure who the last character that was added in because the series needed someone in Smash for the game to sell was. Usually if you need Smash to sell the game then the game gets skipped over for a character.

I agree with you, but there's a difference between picking, say, Shulk, which can raise his profile and that of his franchise and hopefully grow it, and having the same thought process for Pokemon.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Some characters are promotional. Most, however, aren't. It tends to be a pretty even mix of promotional, fan requests, and characters Sakurai likes, saw potential in, or thought would be a funny addition