Posted a thread with my predictions, but I guess I was supposed to post it here. Oops...
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Follow the pattern: Mega Man, Cloud, Daisy, and Ridley, on top of Snake returning. This is likely to be Sakurai's last game, and the last chance for all these dream characters to be in a single game together as we know it. We also know that there's only going to be a few more newcomers in the base game, probably no more than 5 or 6. This means that we're unlikely to get more oddball characters like Game & Watch and Wii Fit Trainer, and more popular, long awaited characters, like Ridley and Cloud, since these choices really count. Not only does Sakurai have over a decade of requests to go off of, but the Smash Ballot from three years ago is a valuable source of data.
But with the inclusion of Echo Fighters, there is opportunity for some low-effort characters to supplement the few completely new characters. Some people have done some wild speculation as to who would fit as Echo Fighters, most of them impractical, but there is a good chance at several making it into the game.
So here's what I'm going to predict:
Newcomers:
- Simon Belmont -
Not only was this character allegedly leaked to be included by someone who also leaked that Ridley and Daisy were going to be revealed, but Simon's been requested for a while as well. The original Castlevania games were hallmark NES titles, and Simon would have a very fresh and unique moveset to add to the game. The whip and all the sub-weapons would definitely stand out amongst the swords, guns, and fists. Previous concerns were about Konami's willingness to lend the character, especially after Snake's absence, but now Snake is back, so the bridge is definitely open for another Konami character.
- Geno -
Another longtime request, the issue has been that Square Enix holds the rights to the character. Well, not only is Nintendo working with Square for Cloud, but there was a Geno Mii costume released alongside him in Smash 4, meaning that it's known that he's a request, but Cloud was the bigger fish at the time. Now that Cloud is back again, and the request for Ridley has been fulfilled, I'd say Geno is the most likely character to be included next to Simon.
- King K. Rool -
I've never played Donkey Kong, and I know nothing about this character, but I know that he too has been a major request since before Brawl, since he's the foe of Donkey Kong. Like Metroid, the Donkey Kong representation hasn't been expanded since Brawl, and with Bowser, Ganondorf, and now Ridley all being in the game, it makes sense to finally give DK his antagonist and give Donkey Kong fans something for the first time in 10 years.
- Sora -
I've also never played Kingdom Hearts, but one doesn't have to in order to know how popular and influential it is. I imagine, despite having wielding another form of blade, that Sora's moveset would have more possibilities than a normal sword moveset. Like with Geno and Cloud, the collaboration with Square Enix allows this to be possible, though the bigger unknown would be if Disney is on board. As it turns out, Disney is teaming up with Nintendo for a game show called
"Nintendo Switch Family Showdown" on Disney XD this summer, so it looks like the stars might have aligned to allow this to happen. Who knows, maybe Sora will be revealed on an episode of the show in a few months? I'm sure Disney and Square would appreciate some signal boosting for Kingdom Hearts 3, even if it's not necessarily on Switch.
- Banjo Kazooie -
A Nintendo 64 staple with fans the world over, there's no way Banjo wasn't a major character in the ballot, as well as being requested in many other places for over a decade. The roadblock has always been that Rare belongs to Microsoft now, but on multiple occasions the head of Xbox, Phil Spencer,
has stated that he'd be completely okay with letting Nintendo use Banjo for Smash, so really it's just as possible as any Nintendo character. Not only that,
but Nintendo and Xbox have gotten along pretty well with the development of cross-play, as well as the versions of Minecraft for Switch and 3DS, so if Sakurai wanted to fulfill this longtime request, there's nothing stopping him.
- Skull Kid -
The earliest notable non-Ganon villain of the Zelda series, combined with the increased popularity of Majora's Mask over the years, have made him a pretty hot request for a while as well. This would work great with Young Link being back, as it'd give the two a rivalry, since they come from the same game. His moveset might be tricky, but it'd give the roster one more villain, and a pretty unique one at that. This one's the least likely of my six guesses, hence why I have it at the bottom of the list, but if any new Zelda character were to be added, it would be him.
Echo Fighters:
- Dark Samus -
Dark Samus is who I voted for on the ballot, as next to Ridley, she's the best character to include for Metroid representation. Despite sharing the same body shape as Samus, her powers and moves are all very different. For a while, it made more sense for her to make it in over Ridley, given the size debate. Now that the debate has been put to rest, it doesn't make as much sense to make Dark Samus her own whole character. But it does make perfect sense to have her as an Echo Character, to give Metroid one more boost in representation. She was an Assist Trophy in Smash 4, but has been mysteriously absent so far in what we've seen in Smash Ultimate. Also absent is Samus's Dark Samus alternate color from Smash 4, perhaps to reduce confusion with the real deal? If this prediction comes true, I'll scream.
- Dixie Kong -
This would bring both Metroid and DK up to 4 characters each, as well as fulfill the longtime request for Dixie Kong. Her moveset might need a bit of work, but overall she wouldn't need too much effort to make her an echo of Diddy Kong.
- Funky Kong -
Or, Sakurai can enable Funky Mode and we get an echo of DK instead. I think Dixie is more likely, but due to his recent spotlight in DKCR on Switch, this wouldn't be too surprising.
- Shadow the Hedgehog -
Another Assist Trophy from Brawl and Smash 4, now with the potential to be given new life as a playable character due to the Echo Fighter designation, and like Dark Samus, he hasn't been seen as an Assist Trophy yet, while we now have Knuckles as one. This character's popularity has been pretty enduring ever since his introduction in Sonic Adventure 2, and would probably be one of the most popular Echo Fighters if included. Unfortunately, as an Echo Fighter, he'd have to use Sonic's moveset, which means we won't get to see Shadow wield an MP5.
- Black Shadow -
Hey, if Samus and DK get their nemeses, Falcon should get his, too! Unlike Dark Samus, Dixie, and Shadow, Black Shadow has a pretty different design from whom he'd be an echo of, adding some extra variety to the cast. Furthermore, since Ganondorf has become much more distinct from Captain Falcon, no longer just being a clone of him, the space is open for a new F-Zero character, though given F-Zero's status that one might describe as "super dead," this may be pretty unlikely. It might also be odd to have Shadow and Black Shadow at the same time.
- Ken/Akuma -
Given that they boast similar designs and movesets to Ryu, either of these characters is likely. Ken because of how similar he is to Ryu, and Akuma because he's arguably more popular, as well as having been a guest in Tekken 7 last year, meaning another guest appearance isn't farfetched.
- Blaziken -
Many people have suggested Blaziken as an echo for Captain Falcon, which is both oddly fitting and gives Gen 3 some desperately needed representation. I don't think this is likely, but since it fits well enough and fills the Gen 3 hole, I'd say it at least has a chance.
- Birdo -
Unlike Waluigi, who's a completely different body type and would require a completely different moveset, Birdo could easily get away with Yoshi's moveset. Just make her snout be a vacuum like Kirby instead of a tongue like Yoshi, and that's all that really needs to be done. But how many people are really asking for Birdo? Probably the least likely of any Echo Fighter, even if it's the least work. Also, the Super Mario Bros. 2 stage from Melee is coming back, and Birdo was a stage hazard there, so that may rule her out.
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There's popular speculation of some other Echo Fighters, like Octoling for Inkling, other Pikmin characters over Olimar, Jeanne over Bayonetta, and Mrs. Pac Man. I consider these all highly unlikely, as up until the past few months, Octolings haven't been a big deal in Splatoon 2 and wouldn't warrant anything in Smash. Olimar already has Alph as an alt costume, so an Echo Fighter wouldn't make any sense. Bayonetta still has her Jeanne alt color, and Jeanne doesn't have anywhere near as much recognition as Bayonetta, so there's almost no way. And Mrs. Pac Man wouldn't be an Echo Fighter, she'd be an alt skin, like with Robin and Corrin.
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And that's my best prediction as to who we'll see wind up in Smash Ultimate. There's no telling how many DLC characters there will be, so my guesses are about who we'll see when the game launches this December, though it's possible some of these characters may appear as DLC. The point is, I don't think we're going to get any obscure or unpopular characters this time around. This is Smash Ultimate, and there's not a lot of space for new fighters, so like Ridley, the new characters need to be ones that have been requested nonstop for a decade or more.
Hence, Waluigi, whose popularity and requests have only really existed for the past year or two, probably won't make it into the game, since most of his support is due to memes, and not due to any longtime emotional connection that's formed requests for him since Melee.
) in addition to the pre-Melee and pre-Brawl characters I wanted and received.
