Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Fane]

The idea that there’s any third party mumbo jumbo to be made is nonsensical when Cloud is in the game and when Geno was a costume for Smash 4.

We’re making up red tape. Why should Geno be in the game? The fans and Sakurai want him. That should be a good enough excuse.

Comparing Geno to Cloud is like comparing Apples to... Onions. Cloud is one of the most iconic video game characters while Geno is just an obscure character from a one-off game.

Does Sakurai want Geno? That's the most important question. Sure a portion of fans might want him, but that is simply not enough to warrant a spot for him. He's a very minor third party character that doesn't bring a whole lot into Smash. He's got little history and relevance to Nintendo, he's not a gaming icon, and his demand is nowhere close to that of Ridley's, Waluigi's, or King K. Rool's.

Simply put, unless Geno wins a ballot, don't expect him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Comparing Geno to Cloud is like comparing Apples to... Onions. Cloud is one of the most iconic video game characters while Geno is just an obscure character from a one-off game.

Does Sakurai want Geno? That's the most important question. Sure a portion of fans might want him, but that is simply not enough to warrant a spot for him. He's a very minor third party character that doesn't bring a whole lot into Smash. He's got little history and relevance to Nintendo, he's not a gaming icon, and his demand is nowhere close to that of Ridley's, Waluigi's, or King K. Rool's.

Simply put, unless Geno wins a ballot, don't expect him.

I wasn’t comparing Cloud to Geno. I was saying that, thanks to Cloud, Nintendo dealing with Square Enix doesn’t require any effort (or ‘third party mumbo jumbo’). The fact that he got in as a costume means Nintendo managed to easily get the rights to use him. It’s literally a non-issue.

And whether Sakurai wants him isn’t a question, he has gone on record to say that he personally wants Geno in Smash. Geno has also been heavily demanded by fans, and likely placed high on the ballot. Have you been on these boards?

Edit: here is an interview with Sakurai where he says he’s wanted Geno in Smash since Brawl, and acknowledges the high demand for him.

https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2016...ans-one-most-requested-smash-bros-characters/

 

[Fane]

I wasn’t comparing Cloud to Geno. I was saying that, thanks to Cloud, Nintendo dealing with Square Enix doesn’t require any effort (or ‘third party mumbo jumbo’). The fact that he got in as a costume means Nintendo managed to easily get the rights to use him. It’s literally a non-issue.

And whether Sakurai wants him isn’t a question, he has gone on record to say that he personally wants Geno in Smash. Geno has also been heavily demanded by fans, and likely placed high on the ballot. Have you been on these boards?

Ahh, well I mistook what you meant by the first bit there. My bad. I thought you'd meant something like "Well... If Cloud can get in Smash, so can Geno!"

I guess they could do it? Inklings were costumes. So was King K. Rool.(Who is very likely tbh) If Sakurai absolutely does want Geno in Smash, then there's no reason not to, unless he's changed his mind. It honestly depends on what exactly held him back from putting him in Brawl/4. Could've been licensing(if that's the case, then he's highly likely now) or it could've just been that as much as he wants Geno in, he acknowledges the obscurity of the character and felt the costume would be enough. We won't really know unless he's confirmed or deconfirmed, really.

My point is that Geno doesn't exactly match-up to the rest of the roster of gaming icons, Nintendo classics/retros, and their more popular characters. He'd be an extreme oddball, simply put.

(And no, I'm pretty recent to the boards actually. I'd actually no clue that Sakurai went on record about Geno, so thanks for that info.)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ahh, well I mistook what you meant by the first bit there. My bad. I thought you'd meant something like "Well... If Cloud can get in Smash, so can Geno!"

I guess they could do it? Inklings were costumes. So was King K. Rool.(Who is very likely tbh) If Sakurai absolutely does want Geno in Smash, then there's no reason not to, unless he's changed his mind. It honestly depends on what exactly held him back from putting him in Brawl/4. Could've been licensing(if that's the case, then he's highly likely now) or it could've just been that as much as he wants Geno in, he acknowledges the obscurity of the character and felt the costume would be enough. We won't really know unless he's confirmed or deconfirmed, really.

My point is that Geno doesn't exactly match-up to the rest of the roster of gaming icons, Nintendo classics/retros, and their more popular characters. He'd be an extreme oddball, simply put.

(And no, I'm pretty recent to the boards actually. I'd actually no clue that Sakurai went on record about Geno, so thanks for that info.)

Ah, I see. Welcome to the boards, then! I realize that comment might have sounded a bit too harsh, so I apologize. But yeah, while Geno would be an oddball character, he’s pretty popular with the Smash community so he’d fit in alright in ‘the Ultimate fanservice game’.

I guess the appeal of Smash, at least to me, is to see unknown weirdos like Game & Watch next to icons like Pikachu, so it’s not like Geno would be too extreme for me.

 

[epicgordan]

Wait a minute! I thought Sakurai threatened to delay Smash 4 by one day for each Geno character and that he was afraid to show off Karate Joe. He also mentioned how he doesn't want his arms to fall apart opening fan mail filled with Geno requests lol.

Of course, the article I got that from also mentioned how the developers at BioWare thought that fans would be stupid enough to buy Mass Effect 3 and not be fooled by the identical endings and lack of meaningful choices (well, aside from fem-Shepard romancing Garrus), so what do I know?

Edit: I know the chances of this happening are like 1 in a million, but how many of you guys would go nuts for Commander Shepard and Garrus being confirmed for Super Smash Bros.? As oddly as they'd stand out notwithstanding.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I certainly would go crazy from not being able to decide whether it’d be awesome (love Mass Effect) or stupid (as iconic as Shep is he really doesn’t belong in Smash).

 

[Fane]

Anyway, on topic of the Newcomer speculation, Sakurai said "We hope you're not expecting too many new fighters". Well the total 'newcomer' count in each title has been:
64: 12
Melee: 13
Brawl: 19(18 if you don't include Pokemon Trainer himself)
Wii U/3DS: 21

Now I'm going to say anything above 12 newcomers is too many. They can squeeze in probably 4 Echoes(including Daisy) so not including them, a total of 8 unique fighters totally sounds reasonable imo. So, going along with that my guesses are:

Unique Fighters: (Including revealed ones)
1) Inkling
2) Ridley
3) King K. Rool(Largely requested like Ridley)
4) ARMS Rep(New game that was received very well, more than likely to have representation)
5) Retro Character(Tamagon, Excitebikers?)
6) Rex/Pyra(Sakurai praised XC2 and it deserves the rep)
7) Gen 7 Pokemon(Lycanroc, Decidueye, Mimikyu?)
8) New Third Party Rep(Feels inevitable)

'Echo Fighters':
1) Daisy
2) Dark Samus(No Dark Samus color for Samus is odd.)
3) Impa(Same thing as Dark Samus. No Impa color for Sheik.)
4) Dixie Kong(Highly requested and could be a great Echo fighter for Diddy Kong)

 

[EricTheGamerman]

My point is that Geno doesn't exactly match-up to the rest of the roster of gaming icons, Nintendo classics/retros, and their more popular characters. He'd be an extreme oddball, simply put.

I don't think he'd be an extreme oddball at all. Marth and Roy in the US version were oddballs, as are basically every retro/WTF character Sakurai has ever included (Ice Climbers, Pichu, Mr. Game and Watch, ROB, Wii Fit Trainer). The 90s definitely qualify as classic at this point as well based upon how people react to material from that time, so he could just as easily be our new retro representative that just also happens to be a hugely requested character. Two birds, one stone. He certainly wouldn't physically look out of place either.

 

[Fane]

I don't think he'd be an extreme oddball at all. Marth and Roy in the US version were oddballs, as are basically every retro/WTF character Sakurai has ever included (Ice Climbers, Pichu, Mr. Game and Watch, ROB, Wii Fit Trainer). The 90s definitely qualify as classic at this point as well based upon how people react to material from that time, so he could just as easily be our new retro representative that just also happens to be a hugely requested character. Two birds, one stone. He certainly wouldn't physically look out of place either.

Marth and Roy's games were huge at the time in Japan, which is where Smash is based from. It made total sense. The fact that Fire Emblem hadn't been released outside of Japan didn't make them 'oddball' additions.

Those characters have significant importance/history to Nintendo though. G&W was the star of their very first video games, Ice Climber was a launch title with the NES in America, ROB was a small yet important part of Nintendo's early life and had received many cameos and appearances in games after it's inital launch, Wii Fit sold extremely well and ended up being a largely successful game for the Wii. Pichu was one of the brand new Pokemon in the series and the pre-evolution to the mascot, Pikachu.

Geno has very little importance to Nintendo's history.

Further adding on to my point: Geno is third party, obscure, and doesn't really have much to do with Nintendo other than being in a one-off Mario game. That is why he'd be such an oddball addition to the roster imo. He could definitely make the cut, especially since Sakurai said he wanted to add him in as far back as Brawl, but never did. We don't know the reasoning behind it. If it was licensing issues, then he'll probably be in the game this go around, if it was other reasons, we probably still won't see him.

Like I said, we won't know until we know.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

3rd parties aren't chosen because they have much to do with Nintendo anyway.

Geno is far more related to Nintendo than Cloud could ever be, who has jack-all to do with Nintendo. His series does, but not himself.

These kinds of arbitrary barriers wouldn't keep him from getting in Smash. What would, however, is Square-Enix saying no or an agreement not being reached. Sakurai really wants the character in. It's that simple.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

A part of me does wonder if Square Enix would be agreeable to Geno becoming a playable character and becoming their second representative in the game. I mean Capcom and Sega have pretty big names representing them (Sure Bayonetta isn't as big as the other 3 but she's still very relevant)......Geno might have plenty of fan demand but he's not really a significant Square Enix character.

I mean, we only got two songs on the Midgar stage (and they weren't even remixes)....which always left me with the impression Sakurai had to wrangle whatever he could get out of them.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

A part of me does wonder if Square Enix would be agreeable to Geno becoming a playable character and becoming their second representative in the game.

I mean, we only got two songs on the Midgar stage (and they weren't even remixes)....which always left me with the impression Sakurai had to wrangle whatever he could get out of them.

Though to be fair, DLC likely had a much smaller budget. Plus, songs are written by many people, so that might've made it harder to license. Getting Geno as a costume was notable too. Sakurai tried to get Geno in Brawl but the negotiations fell through(no specific details). That already tells us Geno's chances are far higher this time. If he doesn't become playable, a Mii Costume again is highly likely. And he could become DLC.

Let's note that Sonic only got in Brawl because Sega actually said yes later on, which screwed with development, hence the delays. So Square saying yes later on is possible.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Marth and Roy's games were huge at the time in Japan, which is where Smash is based from. It made total sense. The fact that Fire Emblem hadn't been released outside of Japan didn't make them 'oddball' additions.

Those characters have significant importance/history to Nintendo though. G&W was the star of their very first video games, Ice Climber was a launch title with the NES in America, ROB was a small yet important part of Nintendo's early life and had received many cameos and appearances in games after it's inital launch, Wii Fit sold extremely well and ended up being a largely successful game for the Wii. Pichu was one of the brand new Pokemon in the series and the pre-evolution to the mascot, Pikachu.

Geno has very little importance to Nintendo's history.

Further adding on to my point: Geno is third party, obscure, and doesn't really have much to do with Nintendo other than being in a one-off Mario game. That is why he'd be such an oddball addition to the roster imo. He could definitely make the cut, especially since Sakurai said he wanted to add him in as far back as Brawl, but never did. We don't know the reasoning behind it. If it was licensing issues, then he'll probably be in the game this go around, if it was other reasons, we probably still won't see him.

Like I said, we won't know until we know.

Eh.. Ice Climbers just for being a launch NES game seems to be reaching for meaning. They're one offs from a not terribly popular Nintendo game, which isn't also particularly good. Hell Ness was a one off character from a relatively obscure game at the time of original Smash even if he was a few years old. Same for Pit who came from an irrelevant NES game and an even more irrelevant GB game. Marth and Roy were almost not included in the worldwide release of Melee because Sakurai was afraid people wouldn't know who they were or care, yet still went ahead with including them outside Japan. ROB is indeed a very small character to Nintendo's history. Sure, important to the success of the NES, but again, not someone many fans were able to recognize when he first showed up properly. Same for Game and Watch. Wii Fit Trainer is the very description of an out of place character.

Geno for all intensive purposes is a first party character. His only three appearances are as a Mii Costume in Smash 4, a cameo in Mario and Luigi Superstar Saga, and in Super Mario RPG. Sure, the rights to his character are third party, but he would only really be third party in the same way Bayonetta is to be honest. Super Mario RPG is an important game to Nintendo, because it helped span all of the following Mario RPGs, and was also a collaboration between Nintendo and Square Enix, who now is partnered with Nintendo for Smash. Geno was most definitely the breakout new star from that game.

Obviously I'm for Geno in Smash. But I'm also saying I don't buy the Geno is too irrelevant argument. He's just as important as Ice Climbers/Ness/Pit in all honesty on a basic level outside of their Smash appearances. He's not really a third party character in the way our main third parties are in other Smash games. And Sakurai has shown a willingness to give characters with little relevance and old ties to Nintendo a chance. Fan support and Sakurai's own personal support I think help earn him a bigger chance.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Though to be fair, DLC likely had a much smaller budget. Plus, songs are written by many people, so that might've made it harder to license. Getting Geno as a costume was notable too. Sakurai tried to get Geno in Brawl but the negotiations fell through(no specific details). That already tells us Geno's chances are far higher this time. If he doesn't become playable, a Mii Costume again is highly likely. And he could become DLC.

Maybe but remember that both Ryu and Bayonetta got remixed music and they were DLC characters. Ryu might not have gotten a huge amont of music, but he still got more than Cloud did. (Which I should state again, was a measly two songs)

Also I think that proves my point moreso that Square Enix may be reluctant to outright having Geno as a playable character, that they don't want Geno representing their brand. (at least not front and center as a playable character)

That they might be convinced this time around isn't proof of anything, it just sounds like guess work mixed with wishful thinking.

For the record, I don't think Geno being playable is all that unlikely (though I still think an assist trophy is a bit more likely)....I'm just playing devils advocate for why I think Square Enix might dig their heels in and refuse Sakurais request, that they might want something more relevant to their brand.

 

[Fane]

Yeah that's my biggest question as to what the reasoning behind Sakurai not bringing him in as a fighter.

Clearly Square Enix was totally okay with Cloud joining the fray in Sm4sh. As for Geno, Sakurai wanted him in Brawl, yet never mentioned as to why he never was made playable. Perhaps he'd tried getting permission from Square Enix and they denied the request? Or he'd wanted to but decided against it? We probably never will know unless he's made playable.

I agree with Sabrewulf238 , perhaps it's just Square Enix being stubborn. We won't really know until either release or all newcomers are revealed. If he's in then Square Enix probably just wanted representation from Final Fantasy before Geno.

Geno is just really a muddled subject. It should be simple but due to Square Enix, it's not.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Maybe but remember that both Ryu and Bayonetta got remixed music and they were DLC characters. Ryu might not have gotten a huge amont of music, but he still got more than Cloud did. (Which I should state again, was a measly two songs)

Also I think that proves my point moreso that Square Enix may be reluctant to outright having Geno as a playable character, that they don't want Geno representing their brand. (at least not front and center as a playable character)

That they might be convinced this time around isn't proof of anything, it just sounds like guess work mixed with wishful thinking.

For the record, I don't think Geno being playable is all that unlikely (though I still think an assist trophy is a bit more likely)....I'm just playing devils advocate for why I think Square Enix might dig their heels in and refuse Sakurais request, that they might want something more relevant to their brand.

Keep in mind that Bayonetta also is an active Nintendo IP and Sega already directly had content as is. Whereas for Ryu, Street Fighter content is owned by a different subset of Capcom, so that required separate licensing, making it harder. It also got 6 remixes, not 6 unique songs.

But yeah, that was my point too. It's up to SE to say no. Nintendo and Sakurai aren't an issue. Though if SE isn't able to agree on something easy...

Albeit, we did eventually get Super Mario RPG on the VC, which means it's not as big of a deal anymore. Cloud clearly represents SE more and many just think of Geno as a regular Mario character(well, he is a Mario one anyway). Some don't even know he's 3rd party. That should say a lot. Geno isn't a representative of Square-Enix's content. He's just a Mario character who happens to be owned by a non-Nintendo company. That's it.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I just think that branding is a bigger deal than people are giving it credit for. Every third party we've received so far has been either highly iconic in the wider gaming community (and society as a whole really) or very relevant to the gaming community (specifically Bayonetta is highly relevant to the Nintendo community right now)

Branding matters and it's not something that fan demand is necessarily going to supercede. (especially if you're dealing with a third party publisher)

EricTheGamerman Except he's a third party where it matters most, legally. There's also no way he wouldn't end up being labelled as the second Square Enix rep. (Since that's the truth, he's owned by Square Enix)

 

[Delzethin]

You know...considering everything we found out about Smash earlier this week, I can't help but wonder if we're approaching the Ballot wrong.

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 17, 2018

There's a full thread on the other end of that link. Basically, I'm starting to wonder if the Ballot won't actually help out anyone who wouldn't already be eligible. I'm starting to think it may only take characters who already have a chance and make them higher priority, and anyone who wouldn't have had a shot may just have a raised chance of showing up as an Assist Trophy or the like.

It's something we need to consider, no matter how scary the thought might be.

 

[Zema]

Diddy Kong was designed by Rare, so he’s not Japanese.

Diddy Kong is the exception that proves the rule! On a more serious note, though, Donkey Kong is a bit of a special franchise. It's so tightly connected to the Mario universe it would be kind of strange to leave those characters out. Beyond that, though, have there been any non-Japanese characters included in the game?

Didn't see your post I guess.

Yep, that's very true. Geno is just such an obscure character to include and it's not worth the third party mumbo jumbo to please a fraction of fans. Characters like Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Daisy, etc... are just way more iconic and worthy of receiving a character slot. Unless they start to run out of ideas for newcomers, I doubt we'll see Geno unless he somehow wins a future Smash Ballot if we have any.

I don't really like this argument. If Geno were truly unpopular he wouldn't have gotten as far as he did in the Brawl poll 10 years back. He wouldn't even have gotten a Mii costume, which to be honest shocked me (I had given up all hope to see Geno in Smash by then). I think the fact that Geno actually has a solid chance of getting into the game speaks volumes about him as a character.

I think the fact we're getting a few more newcomers as well as having every character from the previous games return gives Geno a higher chance than ever before of getting into the game - though his waning popularity might mean this is his last shot. I'm not just saying this because I want him in, because I do - I tend to prefer being realistic about a character's chances. Aside from the fact that Sakurai has spoken about wanting to add him in previous Smash games, I'd wager his list of characters to add to the game has already gotten pretty short - especially with many characters people wanted like Lyndis, Waluigi, Bomberman and Sukapon being relegated to Assist Trophy roles.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

So @Spirit Toons already made a good point, but I want to add on to this (and its not you, I just hate this argument).

The "timing the roster" relies on a lot of assumptions to be valid. Namely

• When did Smash start development
• When did they stop choosing characters
• Where each game was at in development
• That Sakurai will not change how he develops this game.

If any of these are off, then entire argument falls apart. Even still, Smash has always added content from games that released the year prior including characters. Fun Fact, did you know Mother 3 released April 20th 2006 while Brawl was planned to release December 3rd 2007? Thats only 19 months. ARMS released in on June 16 2017. Smash Ultimate will release December 7th. Thats only about 18 months. So saying ARMS came too late is proposterous given the timeframe. Game development has also gotten longer since Brawl which is why Smash 4 has a stage from Mario Kart 8 (2014) and Yoshi's Wooly World (2015) when the game launched 2014.

My personal opinion is that most of the new content will come from newer games. Basically, content that couldn't have existed in a past game. We can already see that as the three new stages shown are all from games that released after Smash 4 (with the oldest releasing in 2015). I wouldn't doubt there would be more stages (and even characters) from games including Xenobalde 2, ARMS, 1-2-Switch, Star Fox Zero, Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer and so on. We are already seeing it with the new Pokemon and the three new stages.

Yeah I understand the arguments against and it ain't personal and honestly i may be wrong, I should really be clearer and say i expect "minor" content like stages, assists etc. for the newer games, hell as mentioned smash 4 had Wooly World before that game even came out. I would not be surprised to see Xeno 2, ARMS etc as stages but i'm still unsure on characters when even Yabuki thinks ARMS is too new for a character to be in. I am sure we will see Rex and Pyra, Spring Man (Maybe not Crash) etc. in time but not at launch. Honestly i'm hoping they just ditch Spring Man and go for Helix, he has potential to be wild if pulled off in a 2D game right.

Maybe it's more on a "I want this" bias here because with the focus being dialed down on adding characters over general game health improvements it would be a large bummer imo to see the characters be focusing on new games at launch, especially when some of said new games like ARMS and Xenoblade 2 have been somewhat divisive among nintendo fans (i think arms is kinda cool myself but many think its ****). I'm not saying they care if people like these games or not, it would just be a dissapointment somewhat, espeically when opening with a character like ridley.

 

[Zema]

Fun Fact, did you know Mother 3 released April 20th 2006 while Brawl was planned to release December 3rd 2007? Thats only 19 months. ARMS released in on June 16 2017. Smash Ultimate will release December 7th. Thats only about 18 months. So saying ARMS came too late is proposterous given the timeframe.

The main difference here is that Mother was an already established franchise whereas ARMS is not. I think we're getting a reference to ARMS for sure - but playable character seems too idealistic right now. Perhaps as DLC or, more likely, a Mii Costume.

 

[Louie G.]

While I'm a little behind on this conversation I wanna address Geno, because I've been thinking a lot about him the past few days. For the longest time I was really confused as to why he had so much support, as early as Brawl, for such a niche character from such a big series with many more iconic characters to pull from. Then I heard that Sakurai himself has wanted this character in the series for years. With Sakurai confirming that he's been listening closely to fan demands I do think Geno has a pretty great shot this time around, which is not something I expected to be saying.

I'm a huge advocate for keeping the third party reps limited, I used to think Cloud was pushing it too but have come to recognize his massive influence on his genre, just as all the other third parties have done. Bayonetta is the exception, although there are two factors that set her apart: she was added through the ballot (aka fan demand) and her games are currently being published by and are exclusive to Nintendo. So not only was her massive popularity enough to overcome that but I'm sure practically being a Nintendo character helped a great deal too.

Geno is an odd case, he's part of an established Nintendo franchise yet Nintendo doesn't have the rights to use him. For this reason, in a similar way to Bayo, I consider him a pseudo third party. Sakurai confirmed that he wanted to add Geno in the past but it didn't work out, he's acknowledged his popularity among fans, he went through the trouble of making him a Mii Costume. I don't think Geno is being held to the same standards as the other third parties that we have on the roster. The only thing really standing in his way is Square Enix, and with their golden boy Cloud on the roster I don't think it would be too much of a hassle to get a little bonus.

 

[Fane]

I don't really like this argument. If Geno were truly unpopular he wouldn't have gotten as far as he did in the Brawl poll 10 years back.

I wasn't saying Geno is unpopular, I know he's among the more popular picks for a newcomer. I was saying he's an obscure character. Meaning he has very little relevance and wasn't even the main star of his debut game that was a one-off and also developed by Square Enix making him a third party as well.

Popularity alone can get him in of course, but if Sakurai still wants him in, then it's really up to Square Enix at this point.

The main difference here is that Mother was an already established franchise whereas ARMS is not. I think we're getting a reference to ARMS for sure - but playable character seems too idealistic right now. Perhaps as DLC or, more likely, a Mii Costume.

Except ARMS was a heavily featured game for the Switch and was one of the larger focuses of the new titles for the console. It's not unlikely that Nintendo planned this from the start and either gave Sakurai concepts or info about the game to use for Smash.

It's really not unlikely at all tbh. We're totally getting an ARMS character whether it be through the base roster or DLC, and it released early enough to be in the base roster.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

While I'm a little behind on this conversation I wanna address Geno, because I've been thinking a lot about him the past few days. For the longest time I was really confused as to why he had so much support, as early as Brawl, for such a niche character from such a big series with many more iconic characters to pull from. Then I heard that Sakurai himself has wanted this character in the series for years. With Sakurai confirming that he's been listening closely to fan demands I do think Geno has a pretty great shot this time around, which is not something I expected to be saying.

I'm a huge advocate for keeping the third party reps limited, I used to think Cloud was pushing it too but have come to recognize his massive influence on his genre, just as all the other third parties have done. Bayonetta is the exception, although there are two factors that set her apart: she was added through the ballot (aka fan demand) and her games are currently being published by and are exclusive to Nintendo. So not only was her massive popularity enough to overcome that but I'm sure practically being a Nintendo character helped a great deal too.

Geno is an odd case, he's part of an established Nintendo franchise yet Nintendo doesn't have the rights to use him. For this reason, in a similar way to Bayo, I consider him a pseudo third party. Sakurai confirmed that he wanted to add Geno in the past but it didn't work out, he's acknowledged his popularity among fans, he went through the trouble of making him a Mii Costume. I don't think Geno is being held to the same standards as the other third parties that we have on the roster. The only thing really standing in his way is Square Enix, and with their golden boy Cloud on the roster I don't think it would be too much of a hassle to get a little bonus.

Louie... is that you? Long time no see, comrade!

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

I will say that geno, along with some other popular requested characters like Krool, Ashley and Lloyd, got Mii Costumes as sort of a a casual nod. I'm honestly unsure if he will actually BE in because he's lost his popularity recently, He was more a relic of the late 2000's-early 2010's when geno was inexplicably huge for a while. I just think all the peices are there for him to finally be a thing in smash for this game. Popular enough for the DLC to go "I hear you" with a costume, mentioned before as an interesting idea by the game's creator and square enix are on board from day 1. I'm not personal on Geno myself. I've kinda accepted most of my favourites like Rayman and Klonoa (Although Rayman could be added later I dunno) wont be in, but I think this could be Geno's big break, and I think he has the potential to be something unique outside of the standard archetypes seen in smash.

 

[Louie G.]

Louie... is that you? Long time no see, comrade!

Yo nice to see you dude! The Smash hype was too much for me and I'm back to speculation... feels good to be back!

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Yo nice to see you dude! The Smash hype was too much for me and I'm back to speculation... feels good to be back!

Good to have you back, man! Try not to disappear again haha.

 

[TBone06]

Obviously I'm biased (look at DP and signature) but everyone who supports Geno knows he hasn't been "relevant" in a while. But to me, there are two big facts that no one can dispute. 1.) Sakurai has said multiple times that he wanted to make him a playable character, but it didn't materialize. Why? Who knows. Probably licensing, but it could be a few things. 2.) Sakurai made a Mii costume for him almost as soon as he could. They revealed Cloud, and shortly after we got a Mii costume. At the time of Cloud's inclusion, it was pretty late in the DLC run for Smash 4, so there was no way we were getting two new Square characters. The fact that we got anything is pretty fantastic. Someone mentioned up above that this was kind of a "we hear you" nod to Geno fans which is exactly what it was. Now with Square on board from the start, there could be a better chance. Those two things are facts that prove Sakurai has had him in his thoughts. That's not even talking about his extreme popularity which I'm not going to get into. If he never received a costume, I personally would think his chances would be SIGNIFICANTLY lower, but that proves he hasn't been forgotten.

I'm not going to get my hopes up by saying I think he has a great chance. While I think this is his best chance yet, there are reasons as people have stated why he shouldn't be in. But to think there's no chance he's getting in because he is "irrelevant" is naive, because clearly he isn't irrelevant to Sakurai. Geno is in an odd situation, which makes him extremely unique, and honestly, I think that adds to his intrigue.

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

You know...considering everything we found out about Smash earlier this week, I can't help but wonder if we're approaching the Ballot wrong.

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 17, 2018

There's a full thread on the other end of that link. Basically, I'm starting to wonder if the Ballot won't actually help out anyone who wouldn't already be eligible. I'm starting to think it may only take characters who already have a chance and make them higher priority, and anyone who wouldn't have had a shot may just have a raised chance of showing up as an Assist Trophy or the like.

It's something we need to consider, no matter how scary the thought might be.

What you're suggesting is characters with some sort of hang-up: difficulty brainstorming or programming movesets, series irrelevance, licensing issues, etc. may not instantly be given the chance to be worked on as a playable character even if they were the highest voted on the ballot? That would certainly make the definition of "realizable" all too clear.

For characters who maybe just don't quite have a full moveset's worth of potential ala Villager/Miis/Pac-Man in Brawl or they're difficult to program ala Ridley, I believe you're right. Those characters may have to get passed up for the next in line, but that's just for those who physically just could not work at the time of roster selection. If we're still being completely selective and snubbing high-ranking characters based on they or their series not being relevant in a decade, then oh yes, people absolutely have a right to be filled with rage.

This isn't your ordinary Smash game where recency (minus retros) is king over anything else. If Sakurai is pulling out all the stops like it's been implied and it's about making the fans happy possibly as a set-up to his last Smash game, whoever is highest on the ballot that can feasibly work as a character should be the top priority. I'm not going to suggest there aren't a few characters whose inclusions will have nothing to do with the ballot, but what's the point of having a ballot if we're still picking and choosing? I definitely will keep my expectations tempered in case of such a terrible scenario because you still bring up a valid point, but I just have a hard time even fathoming it. It would not be pretty to watch all the anger fly.

I think about Krystal and I just hope that she was skipped either because she was lower on the ballot than those who were chosen or they didn't want to devote too much fanservice to one franchise with the limited space since Wolf is being brought back. I think about Bomberman and I hope he was skipped because he didn't quite have the moveset potential.

 

[Teeb147]

I feel like Krystal became less relevant. I wouldnt say that if she was featured more lately, but yeah. It wouldnt be impossible to invent a moveset for bomberman, smash flash did it pretty easily, but I do think that mightve been part of their thoughts, and decided just to do 'im classic with laying bombs.

I think an arms character is the most likely to show up as a character, and after that honestly I don't know. Has K.rool shown up anytime lately?
Are there any popular characters since the last poll?

 

[EarlTamm]

Something about Geno I want to bring up is that Nintendo seems to also not see him, or rather Super Mario RPG, as irrelevant. On SMRPG's 22 anniversary, the official Nintendo of America twitter brought the game up and asked if you were team Mallow or team Geno(Two characters they don't even own), which is very surprising as they typically don't celebrate anniversary's of game's like SMRPG so out of the blue. They didn't even plug the SNES Classic Edition, which I find very suspicious on Nintendo's part.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I think Bomberman probably became an assist because he performed well, just not well enough to be a playable character.

Plus you also have to consider that Simon Belmont may have performed better than Bomberman in the ballot (even if Bomberman did well) and having three Konami reps might have been a big ask.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I think Bomberman probably became an assist because he performed well, just not well enough to be a playable character.

Plus you also have to consider that Simon Belmont may have performed better than Bomberman in the ballot (even if Bomberman did well) and having three Konami reps might have been a big ask.

There's also a factor of making Bomberman's moveset interesting. That might've been a difficult task too. But as an AT, he is super easy to implement.

 

[Game And Guy]

I'm fine whether or not Bomberman is an AT or a Fighter, but those who say Bomberman wouldn't have an interesting or flexible moveset hasn't really played Bomberman's games. Even in factoring just the first game, there's already a bunch of mechanics you could easily make into moves. Take a look at the bomb aspect of it. Just the basics of the amount of bombs and size of the explosion can easily be turned into a mechanic. Adding in the later games like Super Bomberman and the new one, where more enemies, more varied stages and gimmicks, more characters, more bomb types, more movement mechanics can easily be translated into a moveset that I assume most people who only casually know about Bomberman would simply relegate to "he just drops bombs".

We've have far more characters the reach all over for the moveset. Starting with Falcon, then with G&W, and we've had Wii Fit, ROB, and Villager.

 

[SmashChu]

The main difference here is that Mother was an already established franchise whereas ARMS is not. I think we're getting a reference to ARMS for sure - but playable character seems too idealistic right now. Perhaps as DLC or, more likely, a Mii Costume.

And why does that matter? Since when does it matter if character X is from an established series or not. It certainly hasn't helped Zelda or DK characters get in. It feels more like trying to put the box in a special box so we can say it wont happen.

You know...considering everything we found out about Smash earlier this week, I can't help but wonder if we're approaching the Ballot wrong.

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 17, 2018

There's a full thread on the other end of that link. Basically, I'm starting to wonder if the Ballot won't actually help out anyone who wouldn't already be eligible. I'm starting to think it may only take characters who already have a chance and make them higher priority, and anyone who wouldn't have had a shot may just have a raised chance of showing up as an Assist Trophy or the like.

It's something we need to consider, no matter how scary the thought might be.

I think you're looking at this wrong. Consider the bolded line. "The ballot wont actually help out anyone who wouldn't already be eligible." Well what exactly constitute an eligable character?

First, consider that the direction of this game may have been influenced by the ballot already. If you look at opinion polls, old characters would routinely get in the top 10. Although these polls will depend on who's taking them, we can at least surmise that bringing back old characters was something a lot of fans wanted. Also, there are fewer characters overall. Its diminishing utility. As time has gone on, the characters aren't as big. This is expected as Mario vs Link means more than Lucina vs Shulk. The same is true of the guest as fans are far more mixed with them then they ever were with Sonic and Megaman.

The other thing you have to realize is the opinions of the Smash fan base have diviated away from your typical fan so what appears popular amoung Smash fans may not translate into a wider audience. Krystal is a great example of this. This character hasn't been in a game since 2007 so why should she be a new character now? Rayman is another one as his popularity was based on him having a trophy in Smash Wii U. I expect Simon will go this direction as well. Regardless, this is why you have to take the Smash fan opinions with a grain of salt. Sakurai does not have to make the roster the top 10 of the ballot. If fact, this is true of other Smash games where characters who seemed to do well weren't playable. You could argue that characters doing well on the ballot just translates into representation but not being a playable character.

You have to take a broader approach. One thing I look at more now is what I call "normie opinions." The Smash fan base has gotten this sort of head cannon over the years and likes to create theories of how things work. A great example was Villager. Smash fans said it wouldn't happen based on what Sakurai had said during an Iwata ask (that the characters werent violent). The normal fans said it would and would put them on their rosters. It was the experts who were wrong. This is why I think ARMS will happen when experts say it wont. Experts will try and say how its the timing or its unproven or something. Go outside Smash and people expected it as it has unique characters, people want to see it and is a brand new series. Makes sense, but time will tell.

I guess what I'm saying is if you have to get out of Smash thought. Look at what has happened before and whats happening now. I could have told you that Krystal wasn't going to happen and no amount of ballot votes would change that. If you were thinking "X is going to happen cause ballot" then your thinking was probably off to begin with.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

And why does that matter? Since when does it matter if character X is from an established series or not. It certainly hasn't helped Zelda or DK characters get in. It feels more like trying to put the box in a special box so we can say it wont happen.

This too. An established series alone doesn't get a newcomer.

There's things like how active the series currently is, moveset potential, easy promotion, etc. Pokemon is about the only case where being an established series really helps. It's also why it's hard to choose characters, which is why Sakurai looks for the most promoted via movies and the anime.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

Mother 3 I feel like is a bad example because of the troubled development of that game and iirc Lucas was orginally planned to be Ness' replacement in Melee, so it's likely there was a more special relationship with that game than others.

Obviously, it's hard to tell what's going to happen with one newer rep (Although one who got bigger than most other Nintendo series at record speed) and one classic request in rn. I think the large assumption things are different here because with the change in focus, there may be new priorities for who gets in and who doesn't. Obviously none of us can say what the deal is with this game. But I feel like adding characters won't be as easy as smash 4 with the whole there's a new FE, New Pokemon, We missed Mario Galaxy etc deal. Especially with the prevaling theme that this game is the game that brings more communication and a closer relationship with the smash community I don't think it's unresonable to see this be the game that kills the big requests

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

At this point, I'm not expecting anything more than 10 newcomers (including the current new arrivals). Although the possible prospect of DLC is one way to get around that, I wouldn't be surprised if the default final roster is only slightly bigger than what's been announced in the big E3 reveal + the Splatoon surprise. Long story short, a total of 70+ reps, veterans and newcomers combined might be what's in store.

Another thing to take into consideration is, for the third parties, any IP that had direct involvement with an active Japanese developer is what might be viable to expect a representative for.

Still though, since everyone is back from the previous games, it's an exciting prospect, since every upcoming character inclusion will be brand-new this time! So who knows what could happen?

 

[Teeb147]

I think with so many characters, I can't expect too many newcomers, I'm surprised some here think there could be that many new ones left,.. but maybe, who knows..the more the better

 

[Zema]

I have to agree. I don't think we're getting that many newcomers this time around. I prefer being pessimistic in that regard, and I expect 5-6 newcomers at best. Maybe more through DLC.