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I believe his source for Ridley is different than the others - it’s also the same source saying Bamco is developing Prime 4 so it’s probably an insider there. He was saying Ridley as early as April or so and right before E3 he doubled down on Ridley, saying he was the only part he was sure about. So I think all the other Smash stuff is a different “source” (his record is spotty but points for Ridley).
Geno is possibly one of the most interesting characters to discuss, I find. Maybe that's more because I want him in, but at the same time he has so much going for and against him it always tends to result in some fascinating discussion or other. He's third party, but appeared in a Mario game. He was a side character in a 20 year old game, yet he's still very popular. He should have no chance, but Sakurai talked about wanting him in Smash twice.
Well damn.
Most people seem convinced there will be one... I'm not so sure, myself. Unless Sakurai explicitly stated he was going to add one, I have my doubts that this new Smash will have a new-gen Pokemon. Sure, it's a trend to add a new Pokemon for every Smash, but then again Sakurai is very unpredictable.
We are in a weird spot of numbers of newcomers.
Ashley seems to be pretty popular. Chrom appears to be gaining steam.
As far as im concerned, Vergeben had 3 sources that said Ridley was playable:
He doesn’t though. Sadly.
I think you've certainly covered the more likely ones here for pre-existing series in SSB. The only one I'd say you're missing is:
Dixie - Probably is happening
Dixie seems quite likely
I can see Dixie Kong and Toon Zelda happening if Sakurai really wants to revive some lost concepts from past Smash games (likewise for whoever the Rhythm Heaven character was that was planned for Smash 4).
That all depends on how many newcomers we get, but in assuming that there is only going to be 5 more newcomers (in addition to the 2 we already have and not counting Echo Fighters), I would say 2-3 more series represented. This is also counting 1 of those as potentially being a new 3rd party series represented as well.
There honestly aren't a ton of new franchises to pull from at this point. Particularly from circa late 2015. As Souldin mentioned, we have a lot of the smaller budget Nintendo characters like Dillion and Qbby. None of those characters really have had much of an impact, and are generally not as supported by the community either. Dillion is the only one I've seen with really any support, and at least he was an assist trophy in Smash 4. I'm inclined to say he is possible, but his inclusion could go either way.
But there is a lot to pull from. They just aren't super popular or huge new things. At this point, why not pull from small or obscure IP?
You're forgetting Shrek. The most important all-star
May I suggest Pig Ganon and Dark Matter? Ganon's arguably more iconic an all-star than Ganondorf is and Dark Matter would be a decent representative of Kirby final bosses.
Ganondorf represents Pig Ganon pretty well. As much as I think Ganon deserves a shot, I don't want the Zelda series to be so flooded with the same characters. There's Zelda and Sheik, Link, Young Link, Toon Link, potentially Toon Zelda, and now Pig Ganon? It's bad design.
1) Well Karate Joe has been in every single Rhythm Heaven game, and you'd likely be able to gather a personality of the character from his appearances across each game. Their 'webcomic stick figure' design as you put it would actually allow them to stand out more.
I'd argue that there are plenty of series Sakurai could pull from, Nintendo posses an unbelievable amount of IPs, it's just questioning which ones are more likely/important to add in first. The Wars series stretches back to the Famicom/NES and has many games under it's belt thanks to a revival on the GBA... but the future of the series is uncertain. Sin and Punishment got itself a sequel back on the Wii, but might it have missed out on it's more likely chances for a playable rep. Stary is from a 5 game series, Custom Robo has the same amount I believe, and Wave Race/1080 combined do (they are so connected, it feels like a Mario and Yoshi series situation with those two). For another retro outside of the three mentioned earlier (I think they are the most likely) Bubbles from Clu-Clu Land I believe is Nintendo's first female protagonist and Chibi-Robo... I actually forgot about the poor fellow; he could really do with some love and he is still relevant. Then there also the more... 'casual' (hate that term) appealing series such as Art Academy and Style Savvy; sold well, targeted key areas, relevant, and have the potential for a playable rep like Wii Fit does.There honestly aren't a ton of new franchises to pull from at this point. Particularly from circa late 2015. As Souldin mentioned, we have a lot of the smaller budget Nintendo characters like Dillion and Qbby. None of those characters really have had much of an impact, and are generally not as supported by the community either. Dillion is the only one I've seen with really any support, and at least he was an assist trophy in Smash 4. I'm inclined to say he is possible, but his inclusion could go either way.
Captain Toad was pretty much the only new major IP around that time, and he was one of the few breakout new characters from the Wii U/3DS era. So I'll say he is possible as well. ARMS is so recent and the comments from the producer of that game don't inspire any confidence in an ARMS character's inclusion. ARMS is the only one I see, Ever Oasis and Sushi Striker especially are entirely too recent entries and probably lack the fanfare or initial moveset viability to be included.
Everything else from that period comes from established franchises. We still do have lots of old characters to pull from. Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo, and Rhythm Heaven are all more recent IPs to pull from if Sakurai wanted to include them, with Isaac having the benefit of being a highly requested character and Rhythm Heaven having support from Smash 4's supposed cuts.
That basically leaves further back at that point, so retro reps or more one off characters. Geno is in a bit of weird place, but kind of represents Super Mario RPG more than just a Mario newcomer. Lip, Mach Rider, and Excite Biker are some other retro characters from unrepresented series/games.
There's just not a ton of new franchises Sakurai has to pull from at this point. There are a couple more glaring omissions in modern IPs, and DLC makes ARMS fair game I believe, but mostly the roster could use spreading out representation to other beloved series. For newcomers, that's basically the choice that will satisfy the most people. We're at a wonderful point where there are limited options for newcomers. We have increasingly obscure newcomers from old games as one choice, third parties as another, bolstering represented franchises with new characters, or filling the lineup with Pokemon and Fire Emblem characters
Ah; you beat me to it. Nintendo have so many IPs, so many lesser known ones, and it would be fantastic to give them the chance to be known through the marketing capabilities of SSB. I myself learnt a lot about Nintendo's huge library of game characters through the trophies in Melee; though more prominent roles for these series through Stages, Assist Trophies and of course, playable characters, would be fantastic.
Yeah, that was more my point. Though not many franchises to pull from still stands, because most of Nintendo's franchises have at least some representation at this point. Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo, and Rhythm Heaven are arguably the biggest three. There are lots of individual Nintendo games to pull from, or series that aren't necessarily premiere franchises. Saki from Sin and Punishment, your avatar of Barbara (so confused as to why we haven't at least seen her assist trophy retained), Ayumi from Detective Famicon Club, Ray Mark III from Custom Robo, and countless others. As much as I'd love to see some of these games get playable characters, I don't really know how big of a reveal they could be.
1. Personally I'm not sure. I have my doubts on a RH character. Stage and music I can see happening, maybe even an assist since they're very short mini games with only one or two small things they do.
Contrary to popular belief, Vergeben never made that claim. All he said was there would be no cuts and that the Ice Climbers and Snake would be returning. He said nothing about anyone else coming back. The day before the direct an anon on 4chan along with GameFAQS user loz18 said that everyone would be coming back along with a few other details including the name of the game, the Designs for Ganondorf and Zelda and Daisy being a newcomer.
No need to ask permission my man
If there's a reveal next month. Captain Toad's probably a strong possibility. His switch port releases then, and Smash 4 when it did mostly monthly character reveals whether they were Newcomers or veterans often revealed them in the same month as a new game release. (Sonic in October for Sonic Lost World, November had Rosalina for Super Mario 3D World, etc.).
