The issue with the person who has only played a few games is they have to recognize other people with different tastes exist, and that just by basic statistics, the fewer franchises you enjoy/play, the lower chance you have of seeing characters you like in Smash. The more open you are in inviting new franchises and characters in your life, and the more you've played across a variety of video games, the more likely you are to walk away from Smash reveals with either a happy inclusion or someone you recognize. It's when people who have only played a handful of things then get frustrated and angry their specific tastes weren't met that it becomes more of a problem. And parts of the Smash fandom have a tendency to warp ideas around their own personal tastes rather than meet the increasingly diverse world of Smash that invites more content from across the spectrum.
It's also worth pointing out that this is a Speculation Thread and that gets tossed by the way side a bit too often because simply put, the act of speculating requires you to make calls on what is and isn't coming and sometimes recognize characters chances even if you don't like them (Chibi Robo I'll come back to as my example, I ****ing love him, but Nintendo literally set him on fire two years ago and he isn't coming back). This isn't supposed to be a wishlist thread, and there are other places for that. If you want to discuss the chances of characters on your wish list? Absolutely fine, but that's not really the primary purpose of having an open speculation thread like this. It's important to separate a wish list from an approach to speculation at times and understand that specifically here people tend to lean on the speculation part and more general character discussions that pop up rather than just exactly who they want.
Don't worry, I know. And I'm not getting angry that someone else won the lottery. Sometimes I will get introduced to something new, like with Resident Evil. But that doesn't always happen.
Honestly, I'm in this thread more to keep us with the news. I like when someone comes in with a fun little forum game since it's a chance to be creative and think about what my favorites would be like in Smash, but speculation is really tough for this game. After all, based on precedent, how many of the 5 DLC characters packs so far were a name that was thrown around a lot? Banjo, and that's about it. Sure, people talked about DQ and Terry, but those weren't any of the big names floating around before.
Besides, the character threads tend to turn into echo chambers, and that's assuming they're alive. There are only a few that get regular traffic unless they're named in a leak. That said, I did enjoy right before Byleth's release since it was the first time I actually remember people talking about characters I like.
Again, I'm not too up on a lot of characters, but I do have some general speculation. I can't name anyone, but I don't think that I'm being biased here:
Based on what we got, I'm not sure if this is gonna end up being some fanservice pack. Maybe we'll get one or two fan requests, but I don't think there'll be a lot. Which means the other three characters are likely to come out of nowhere. People will see them as important in hindsight, but they'll likely not be central names that people bring up (and fake leaks put in) constantly.
I'm still really of the opinion that Spring Man with alts is likely to be the ARMS character, but I don't think that'll open the door to everyone getting promotions. If any other Assist gets the upgrade, I'd expect Waluigi, but that looks pretty unlikely right now. Sure the others have fanbases, but I don't think they'll get bumped up. Sprits may get a chance, but the ones that have been added since release in Spirit events (like the RE crew) I think are also DOA.
I'm also really expecting another heavily 3rd party focused pass. Those reaction videos always show the most excitement, so absolutely I'd expect ARMS is probably the only first party, or maybe there's one other (and it'll likely be promotional). I'm only half-joking if I suggest that E3 2021 will introduce the next Fire Emblem game, with that protagonist as the last DLC character for Smash.
I'd also expect that definitely one or two of the third parties is going to be Western as Smash is getting a more global perspective. We'll likely also get at least one or two extra names in the copyright as well.
I'm also not expecting echoes. People are talking about a few other datamined slots, but we haven't gotten any bonus DLC outside of the Plant, and that was clearly planned for base since it has the Paly's guidance written and voiced. I don't remember about the database structure of the characters, but wasn't it mentioned that alt costumes (using a new mesh) will fill multiple character slots? As in, Joker takes 2 slots since the has the trenchcoat and the school uniform? So the extra slots could suggest that we'll get a bunch of alts with these - again makes sense, since Banjo and Terry are the only ones who just have recolors.
So what do I expect? Springman with alts, two Western characters, two Japanese third-parties, and another first party from a newer game. I'd expect of the third parties, one for meach will be a big fan request, and the other will be a sensible but dark horse inclusion.
